That also assumes every single candidate that is being discussed will enter the race which is certainly not true
Who do you not see running? I think everyone is in.
No way. Bolton, King, and Pence are all supposedly thinking about it, but they seem the least likely to take the plunge among the 20+ potential candidates who've expressed interest. Likewise, 4th tier jokes like Ehrlich and Gilmore: maybe they'll run and maybe they won't. I think it's too early to say. Trump has set up an exploratory committee, sure, but he's unpredictable. He could drop out at any time due to boredom. Kasich: I don't know. It sounds like he might be legitimately undecided on whether to run or not. Maybe he will and maybe he won't. I'm not sure.
For that matter, Snyder. Despite the misleading thread title here, we're basing the fact that he's supposedly set to enter the race soon on Norm Coleman's statement that "he's running"? I'd prefer to wait for some comment from either Snyder himself or someone directly in his political orbit before I jump to conclusions. Then you've also got folks like Jindal and Perry: Longshots for the nomination who seem like they'll probably run, but it's premature to put those chances too close to 100%. Barbour, for example, looked likely to run four years ago, but opted out. Just because people are visiting early primary states now doesn't mean they'll pull the trigger.
And then of course, you've got the Iowa Straw Poll on Aug. 8th. At least one candidate will drop out because of a poor showing in that, as always happens. The first debate isn't until a week later, so we have time for some culling of the field between now and then.
