Washington state megathread

[KingSweden]

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

[KingSweden]

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?

Not many I can think of off the top of my head. That Miloscia fellow is an odd duck, a fervent social conservative but very left-wing on economic issues (former Dem, now a Rep). You don't see too many like him anymore. Doubtful he survives 2018 regardless of national mood, he benefited from a poor candidate last year.

[KingSweden]

Here in Spokane, Dave Condon (Mayor) and Ben Stuckart (Council Prez) are both likely to get reelected, so the status quo shouldn't change much. The Council could either go back to 4-3 Dem or go to 6-1 Dem (it is 5-2 Dem right now, and the last Republican, Mike Fagan, is unlikely to lose even though he's a loon).

[KingSweden]

Dems currently on pace to pick up one seat on the Spokane City Council to increase their supermajority from 5-2 to 6-1. Not that that'll change much since politicians of all strips are generally pretty useless in this town.

[KingSweden]

Dispatch from out east: David Condon is first Spokane Mayor to be reelected since 1973, and the first one to win since the city went to a strong-mayor system in 2000. Not that this matters hugely, since his frenemy Ben Stuckart was reelected as Council President and liberals picked up a 6th seat on the City Council thanks to Lori Kinnear, so they now hold a daunting 6-1 majority only two years after conservatives controlled the council 4-3.

Prop 1 went down in flames, which is probably a good thing - I usually am skeptical about apocalyptic alarm bells being rung by business groups over propositions, but this thing was poorly written and overly broad. A $12 minimum wage initiative would probably pass - this thing, not so much.

[KingSweden]

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2016/03/01/23637993/trans-activist-danni-askini-is-running-for-the-washington-state-legislature

Since he declared his candidacy for the WA-7, the race to replace Brady Walkinshaw's ultra-liberal Seattle-based State House Seat (WA-43) is getting crowded.  Today, trans activist Danni Askini entered the race, aiming to become the first openly trans person ever elected to the Washington State Legislature.  

Other candidates include "housing advocate Nicole Macri, LGBT advocate Thomas Pitchford, environmental advocate Sameer Ranade, and lawyer Dan Shih" (all Democrats, obviously).  

I don't know enough about the inner workings of Seattle politics to predict how this race will shake out.  



EDIT: It's also March already, we should get a new thread title!

Should call it something pithy related to Jay Inslee and what a dull hack he is.

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.

Habib is an easy favorite, which concerns me - we have no margin for error in the State Senate, and his district once elected Rodney Tom.

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.

Habib is an easy favorite, which concerns me - we have no margin for error in the State Senate, and his district once elected Rodney Tom.

[KingSweden]

Jim Hargrove (My state senator) is retiring. State Rep. Kevin Van De Wege of Sequim (My hometown!) will run to replace him. Clallam County Commissioner Mike Chapman will run to replace Van De Wege. The Olympic Peninsula is fairly conservative, but it favors Democrats at a local level. I expect both Van De Wege and Chapman to win. Van De Wege is fairly conservative, but will be a big improvement over Hargrove.

Fun Fact: Chapman got his political start as a Republican, when he beat my grandmother for her seat on the county commission. The main issue my grandmother lost over? Wanting to ban billboards in the county.

Local politics really hinge on odd issues sometimes

[KingSweden]

Peter Goldmark is retiring from office of Land Commissioner. This is actually an office I could see some Republican from Eastern WA winning fairly easily with a knowledge of rural issues - not many rural Dems left with chops outside of Goldmark

[KingSweden]

Former Seattle sportscaster Tony Ventrella has been recruited to run against Dave Reichert in WA-08.

Ventrella has been talked about as a possible candidate for several cycles, but his stated intention of refraining from PAC money or large donations is worrying. But he has name rec, and has good charisma. He works fairly good as wave insurance in a 50-48 Obama '12 seat.

I was worried we'd only have a warm body here, so this is good. I'd feel a lot better if he was running under the old map, though.

[KingSweden]

Fun times in Spokane Valley, which is now run by a city council majority that has ties to the militia movement and two of the remaining "moderate" Republicans have now retired, paving the way for a supermajority. Nobody has really been able to pin down what this majority's agenda is, but expect the usual Agenda 21 and other militia-flavored stuff. Noted nutcase State Rep. Matt Shea is tight with a lot of these guys.

I have a hard time thinking of anywhere else in this state where the GOP divide is between standard movement conservatives and legit militiamen/Bundyists. The Spokane County GOP is defined by these divisions, with Sheriff Ozzie and Mayor Condon in Spokane being the big fish on the "governing" side of this divide.

[KingSweden]

My wife and I voted for Kasich today.

I don't know if we're going to send ours in

[KingSweden]

Anyone else vote in the primary yet?

My ballot
Senator: Mohammad Said (D)
Representative (WA-05): Dave Wilson (I)
Governor: Bill Bryant (R)
Lt. Governor: Steve Hobbs (D)
Secretary of State: Kim Wyman (R)
State Treasurer: Marko Liias (D)
State Auditor: Mark Miloscia (R)
Attorney General: Joshua Trumbull (L)
CPL: Hilary Franz (D)
SPI: Erin Jones
Insurance Comm: Mike Kreidler (D)
State Rep (LD-09): Mary Dye (R)
Supreme Court: Barbara Madsen

You're in the 5th too? Which part?

As much as Steve Hobbs aligns with my views, I don't know that Id want to risk his Senate seat.

[KingSweden]

You're in the 5th too? Which part?

Pullman, for now. Previously in Cheney.

Very nice. We've lived in Spokane the last four years but are in the process of moving to the Seattle area again

[KingSweden]

You're in the 5th too? Which part?

Pullman, for now. Previously in Cheney.

Very nice. We've lived in Spokane the last four years but are in the process of moving to the Seattle area again

I hope to move back to the west side in about nine months or so, but I'm glad to have lived over here. I've come to respect and appreciate both sides of the state in different ways.

It's definitely fulfilling

[KingSweden]

My Ballot:

Inslee
Murray
Wilson (I)
Habib
Volz (R)
Holy (R)
Wyman (R)
Miloscia (R)
Verner
Kreidler

[KingSweden]

http://rrhelections.com/index.php/2016/07/30/wa-ks-mo-legislative-primary-preview/

RRH's primary preview. Any thoughts on the Leg races this year?

[KingSweden]

All the Senate Ds combined gets 49.54% of the vote in Walla Walla county. Will be interesting to see if Murray can pick it up.

A looooooooot of Westsiders moving there to retire/drink lots of wine/run wineries. Wouldn't be surprised if it trends left pretty sharply in the next decade

[KingSweden]

Two party breakdown for King County (US Senate race):
Seattle: 88-12 Democrat
Suburbs: 65-35 Democrat
Total: 74-26 Democrat

Yes, you read that right. King County was 65% Democrat without Seattle.

King County has to be where Democrats take back the Senate. Litzow (though I like him), Fain, Miloscia and Hill should all be the top targets. Easier said than done, of course

[KingSweden]

Who do we think replaces Inslee in 2020?

Bob Ferguson and Dow Constantine are generally considered to be the frontrunners.

I can't imagine it's anyone other than these two. King County CE is the most high-profile non-statewide office and a lot of candidates (Gregoire, McKenna) have come from the AG'e office. I have to imagine Constantine has the advantage and has put in his dues, personally. I suspect BOTH will eventually be Governor.

[KingSweden]

There isn't much difference between Waite and Davidson. Both are anti-income tax, anti-deficit spending. The main difference is that one's a politician and one's a Wall Street financial management guy.

Davidson, the politician, has most of the big endorsements (Wyman, Reed, other county treasurers from both parties). Waite is backed by McKenna and some Republican state senators.

If I had to pick one, Davidson is probably slightly more likely to play nice with the establishment whereas Waite might be more hardline.

If Waite is more hardline, why'd McKenna endorse him?

It seems strange that McKenna and Wyman split endorsements. I'd probably support Davidson, though.

I never, ever leave a race blank, so I'd probably support Davidson for this reason, too.

[KingSweden]

Some notes on competitive races:

LD 30 (South King County, Federal Way + parts of Auburn)
Mike Pellicciotti (D) leads incumbent Rep Linda Kochmar (R) 52.3% - 47.7%. (yikes...)
Kristine Reeves (D) leads incumbent Rep Teri Hickel (R) 50.16% - 49.84%.

LD 5 (Sammamish ($$$) and other $$ - $$$ exurbs bleeding into the Cascades)
Rep Chad Magendanz (R) challenges incumbent Senator Mark Mullett (D), but trails 50.69% - 49.31%.
Incumbent Rep Jay Rodne (R) leads Jason Ritchie (D), who lost in WA-8 in 2014, 54.4% - 45.6%.
Vacated rep seat by Magendanz is being fought by Darcy Burner (D), ran for WA-8 in 06 and 08 and Paul Graves (R). The two way D vote is 53.72% - 46.28% (Hello Rep Burner).
This district is going to see one of the biggest swings away from Romney in WA and if Rs are going to be pulled down anywhere, its here.

LD 10: Whidbey Island + some farms
Incumbent Senator Barbara Bailey (R) leads 51.48% - 48.52% the two-way D vote. I have no idea if Angela Homola (D) is a good candidate, but this will be close.

LD 26: Gig Harbor and parts of the Kitsap Peninsula
Larry Seaquist (D) might just make a comeback here, he was defeated in 2014 in the other House position. The two-way R vote narrowly beats out the D vote: 50.29% (R) - 49.71% (D).

LD 28: Tacoma suburb Lakewood + JBLM + some seriously downscale exurbia
A competitive district that I believe Obama has won twice...
Incumbent senator Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) 53.62% - 46.38%.
Incumbent Rep Dick Muri (R) leads Mari Leavitt (D) 52.88% - 47.22%.
Incumbent Rep Christine Kilduff (D) leads 50.85% - 45.88% (R) - 3.28% (L)

LD 17: Outer parts of Vancouver and suburban Clark County
Senator Don Benton is retiring and Lynda Wilson (R) and Tim Probst (D), both former or current Reps from the 17th are vying for the spot. It'll be very close. 50.11% (R) - 49.89% (D). (A must win for Ds if they want to take back the senate).
In the race to replace Wilson, Sam Kim (D) and Vicki Kraft (R) lead a very split field. 51.86% (D) - 48.14% (R).

LD 41: Mercer Island + Bellevue
The ultimate must win for Ds and a district that will be very inhospitable to Trump. The combined D vote in the house was ~65%. It's going to be hard for Incumbent senator Steve Litzow (R) to win.
Lisa Wellman (D) leads Litzow 48.79% - 47.29% - 3.92% (L).

Finally, guaranteed R pickup in the House from LD 31 (the last rural farming parts of king/pierce), where Christopher Hurst is retiring.
JD Rossetti (D), appointed to LD 19 (Southwest WA + Coast) did not make it through a very crowded primary. Ds are still safe here, getting ~56% of the vote.
Guy Palumbo (D) upset Rep Luis Moscoso (D) in the race for the senate seat in LD 1. Safe D though, 60% D - 40% R in the primary.

I think the Ds take Benton and Litzow's seats, Bailey narrowly hangs on and Mullet winds up winning narrowly.

[KingSweden]

Bryant is the worst GOP nom since that loon who ran against Locke in the 1990s. Not that he isn't competent or moderate, but who gets excited about some rando Port Commissioner? Keep in mind the port isn't exactly held in high esteem with some shady dealings. McKenna and even Rossi were vastly superior candidates. Hell, I'd vote McKenna again over Inslee

[KingSweden]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

Huh? Cantwell got over 60% of the vote. In addition, McKenna, as a sitting state-wide office holder couldn't win against a weaker candidate at the state-level. What makes you think he can do it after being out of office for 6 years, at the federal level? Even if 2018 has a similar environment to 2010, why would the race be anything but a relatively narrow Cantwell win (Murray won by 4.7%)? WA has only gotten more D since then (something to do with Seattle adding 14-15k people a year and the Kingco suburbs completing their political transformation).

On that note, it'll be really interesting to see legislative maps next decade