I'm pretty sure it will trend Democratic relative to the nation as a whole. The question is how much.
Virginia has always trended ahead of the rest of the South -in 1952 (I regard 1928 as an aberration) it was among the first southern states to vote Republican. This was more than a decade before the Deep South followed suit in 1964, and cemented in 1972.
Now we are seeing the reverse that first began in 2008.
I really don't see any additional Southern states switching allegiances anytime soon except maybe Georgia depending on where the black vote trends post-Obama.
That having been said, I think VA will continue to trend left even though Hillary is a slightly worse fit (although she is getting better with her new platform this time around). Pending on how social issues go from here, it wouldn't shock me if VA is D+5 in 2028.
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