I think there will be relatively few state pick-ups. And I actually think Clinton would pick up more than Obama. The reason is that, simplifying, Obama plays to McCain's strengths while Clinton plays to his weaknesses. Obama's appeal is mostly toward suburban independents. These are exactly the kind of people McCain appeals to. The kind of states where Obama would expect to do well (Nevada, Oregon, Colorado, etc) are the places where McCain wóuld do well. So I expect them to tend to cancel out. In the conservative rural places where Obama would do badly McCain is gonna have troubles with the base. That would also tend to cancel out. So, overall, I'd expect few switch-overs in an Obama v McCain race.
In McCain versus Clinton, Clinton appeals to rural whites, the kind of voters who like Huckabee and may distrust McCain. The Obama voters on the other hand may stay home or even vote for McCain to an extent in western states. So I'd expect more switch-overs in a Clinton v McCain race.
I don't see you countering any of my arguments here but...ok. Winning conservative rural places in a Democratic primary doesn't say all that much. The Democratic primary voters of Utah aren't that conservative. Now, if you want evidence you can look at some of the many state polls we've seen out of places like Oklahoma, Tennessee and Kentucky. They all show Obama doing horribly, and much worse than Clinton. And Obama's "broad appeal" does not seem to extent to the white Democratic primary voters of the South, to name just one group. It also doesn't seem to extent to Hispanic or Asian voters. Or blue-collar voters.
He's a pretty good candidate and he's done remarkably well in the primaries so far. But he's tied with Clinton. So he still hasn't gotten more than 50% of the Democratic primary vote. So let's not get too carried away.
