At the moment, it seems that Democrats are gaining 5 seats (IL, WI, IN, PA, NH), without losing any, which would result in a Senate that is 51/49 D. On the one hand, several Democratic wins (PA, NH, NV) seem to be very close, while the only Republican win that is averaging narrower than 3 points at the moment is NC; this suggests to me that if the election were run tomorrow, 50/50 (with Kaine tiebreaking) might be a likelier result than 51/49. At the same time, the 5 pickups even as presidential momentum is going the wrong way is a result that reminds me strongly of 2008, when during the summer Democrats were gaining 5 seats (at that time, AK, CO, NM, VA, and NH) but others seemed decently safe; the Obama landslide ended up roping in 3 more (NC, OR, and by just a hair MN). These were not the seats that seemed close over the summer (when MS was polling a very close, single-digit hold for Rs); they were the places where Obama did well. It's easy for me to see Hillary's continued landslide roping in NC, FL, and maybe OH or IA; harder to see AZ, GA, or MO falling, on the other hand. If momentum continues Hillary's way, 53/47 seems like the likeliest result.
After overthinking it like this, I just went with my original estimate of 51/49 D.
Very solid reasoning, but i still stick to mine. Democrats (more so in midterms, of course) have peculiar habit to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. 2014 comes to mind immediately - couple of weeks before election most Democrats on news sites were reasonably sure to preserve their Senate majority.. Again, less so in presidential year, but - still. Turnout among minorities, for example, may be less then in 2012 and 2008 simply because Clinton is not a minority...
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