*will* kerry recover?

[Blue Rectangle]

Kerry will probably not recover for two reasons:

--Bad EV map strategy
By failing to fight hold states like WI and IA, and by failing to attack states like MO, AR and VA, there are few scenarios in which Kerry can win.  We could see Kerry somehow win OH, only to lose because Bush picks up WI and IA.  You don't win over a state by mounting a strong campaign there only during the last few weeks, so it may be too late for Kerry to fix this problem.

--Bad "re-tooling"
Kerry shook things up after the RNC after weeks of sliding.  The problem for Kerry is, this re-tooled campaign looks as bad or worse than the campaign was before.  The new strategy is all-negative, all the time.  To paraphrase the candidate, this is "the wrong strategy, at the wrong time."  If Kerry had gotten dirty before the Swiftboat affair then he might have pulled it off, but going negative requires stockpiles of positive capital.  With Kerry's negatives already high, his attacks look desperate and Kerry looks weak.

As for the debates, I’ll repeat my prediction from a ways back:
The winner of the debates will be whoever is ahead before the debates.  If Kerry is ahead, Bush will look incompetent and out-of-touch.  If Bush is ahead, Kerry will look desperate and unlikable.  For Kerry to come from behind between now and the end of the month would be a miracle, and don’t count on him being able to pull ahead due to the debates.

[Blue Rectangle]

Kerry will probably not recover for two reasons:

--Bad EV map strategy
By failing to fight hold states like WI and IA,

Kerry and Edwards have been here so often in the past few months, it's hard *not* to run into them.

10 electoral votes, and both campaigns are fighting like mad for us.  It's kinda fun to watch.

I was working off old info.  July, I believe, had more visits by Bush than Kerry in WI.  Also, Kerry only just recently pulled ads in CO, LA, NC, etc.--money that should have been spent in WI and IA.  It seems to me that Edwards has been the main campaigner in WI and IA, while Kerry focuses on OH, PA and WV.  I wish someone could make a map of number of visits in each state, along with ad spending.  The last ad spending map I saw was in early July.