French Regionals 2010

[Verily]

A map of the FN vote inside the 3 major cities:



Interesting stuff going on with the very wealthy also voting for the FN in high numbers (compared to the city average)

Not in Marseille, though, right? The wealthy areas are along the coast south of the city as I recall, in the 8th arrondissement, one of the weaker FN areas.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The way the FN vote dances around never ceases to amaze... Paris is especially striking, but even Marseille is not what we've gotten used to...

[Hash]

In that example, could the Greens and the UDF have merged with each other?  They got over 10% of the vote between them.  I know they wouldn't, but I'm not sure if they could.

No. They can each merge with a list over 10%, but not with each other.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The new threshold in Corsica was 7% for runoff, 5% to merge (instead of 5% and no threshold respectively in 2004); plus a larger majority bonus (9 instead of 3 seats). The Corsican system is applied only to Corsica, where the legislature is in fact a territorial assembly, not a regional council per se.

Not in Marseille, though, right? The wealthy areas are along the coast south of the city as I recall, in the 8th arrondissement, one of the weaker FN areas.

Not really, the FN still got a good 18% or so there, which is not good compared to the region but good compared to similar areas in Paris or Lyon. But the FN is really a disparate coalition of diverging, unstable, sometimes even conflicting protest elements; it's hard to do good cross-regional comparisons in elections like these.

I would personally guess that because Marseille is much more pied-noir, but also much more ethnically diverse and economically polarized (Paris has poor areas, but no real inner-city dirt poor areas like the old PCF areas of Marseille's 8th sector; Lyon is even wealthier and middle-class on a general outlook) that the FN vote is a bit more stagnant (though not entirely, this election shows it well. This time you had much stronger showings in UMP areas than in old PCF/PS areas) and is a bit more based on old insecurity/immigration issues than it seems to be in Paris and Lyon (the high vote in Paris-16 is probably not based much on traditional FN issues such as insecurity but an anti-UMP vote from the bourgeois).

unrelated, but amusing results in Longwy: PS 37.53, UMP 13.35, DLR 13.31, PCF 9.61, FN 9.22, GRN 6.18, MNR 2.73, NPA 2.55

[Tender Branson]

Ifop in Poitou-Charentes

PS 63%
UMP 37%

That would be an 8% increase for Ségolène Royal compared with 2004, when she got 55% in round 2.

[Tender Branson]

There`s also a new poll for Languedoc-Roussillon:

Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

[Antonio the Sixth]

Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

[Antonio the Sixth]

BTW, bravo Fillon ! You certainly helped your party so much...

[Hash]

Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

Let's all say a big thanks to the PS, again! "Principles and values" in the first round, but no "principles and values" in the runoff. Let's all vote for a so-called leftist (Pierre Laval was also a member of the SFIO, so I suppose the PS would vote Laval in a race against him and Couderc...) because he's not a rightist, even if the leftist is a racist populist of the 1930s kind.

But Languedoc-Roussillon is an awful region. It's either racists, Pieds-Noirs, obnoxious wealthy retirees in disgusting 1960 cities or old SFIO rural folks. I'd rather live in Saint-Nazaire.

[Hash]

lol



Notice how they don't actually shake hands. I suppose they still hate each other.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one

Good one. . He should really retire and write books, he would actually be far more useful.

So, I had spoken about a big abstention, with a turnout between 45 and 50, and I was right, and it was the only point on which I was right.

I thought EE and UMP could benefit of it, I was wrong.

I thought FN couldn't benefit of the rightist climate on identity and unsecurity, because a now quite old Le Pen and a mixed leadership with his daughter, I was wrong. Apparently the good ol' figure worked.

So, now, here how it could be, I'm thinking about the fact that abstention could be still bigger. First because of EE voters, almost all the lists have merged and I think a good part of EE voters are not fans of PS, like me, the fact that polls remain triumphalist for PS wouldn't push them more.

Second, FN voters, if we assume a significant part of them were just to say 'F**k', then, they said 'F**k', done, not sure why these ones would mobilize themselves a second time. If we assume there is an other part in them that want rightist stuffs for their region, then, if they are not totally stupid, they'll vote UMP.

Third, independent/leftist voters who could have leaned abstention but who voted PS in the 1st run, to protest UMP, with such still triumphalist polls, them too, now they expressed their discontent of UMP in the 1st run they could also stay home in the 2nd one, thinking it's won.

So............maybe still good surprises for UMP possible!! Haha!

Well, you never know.

[Umengus]

I think that the death of the policeman (killed by eta) can give the win to UMP in Alsace where the gap between UMP and PS is very close (in polls). I think that UMP will win there.

Sunday, UMP will be crushed by the left, worst than in 2004. It's of course a vote against Sarkozy and his general policy (jobs, security,...) Lots of sarkozy voters in 2007 are not happy and feel betrayed. It will be difficult to regain them in 2012.

[Hash]

My personal analysis of the FN vote: http://welections.wordpress.com/2010/03/18/the-fn-and-the-french-regionals/

[Hash]

http://www.france-politique.fr/doc/regionales2010/modem-alsace.pdf
http://www.france-politique.fr/doc/regionales2010/modem-normandie-haute.pdf

Notice the use of the old UDF logo on the tracts of the MoDem in Alsace and Haute-Normandie.

(I'm not sure if the Alsatian stuff is in German and French or Alsatian and French. I would suppose German)

[freek]

(I'm not sure if the Alsatian stuff is in German and French or Alsatian and French. I would suppose German)

Yeah, it's in German. And the content is the same as the content in French.

[Kevinstat]

Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

Let's all say a big thanks to the PS, again! "Principles and values" in the first round, but no "principles and values" in the runoff. Let's all vote for a so-called leftist (Pierre Laval was also a member of the SFIO, so I suppose the PS would vote Laval in a race against him and Couderc...) because he's not a rightist, even if the leftist is a racist populist of the 1930s kind.

What would you have them do?  Abstain in the runoff?  Or vote for Couderc?  Or have the L-R PS leadership not endorse any list?

Did any of the three lists in Languedoc-Roussillon getting between 5% and 10% of the vote merge into Frêche's list?  (Or Couderc's?  I'm sure none of them merged into FN's.)  Both Frêche and Couderc were offering some seats on their list to at least one of EE, FG and PS right, although I guess Couderc's "grand coalition" offer wasn't taken seriously.

[Hash]

Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

Let's all say a big thanks to the PS, again! "Principles and values" in the first round, but no "principles and values" in the runoff. Let's all vote for a so-called leftist (Pierre Laval was also a member of the SFIO, so I suppose the PS would vote Laval in a race against him and Couderc...) because he's not a rightist, even if the leftist is a racist populist of the 1930s kind.

What would you have them do?  Abstain in the runoff?  Or vote for Couderc?  Or have the L-R PS leadership not endorse any list?

Did any of the three lists in Languedoc-Roussillon getting between 5% and 10% of the vote merge into Frêche's list?  (Or Couderc's?  I'm sure none of them merged into FN's.)  Both Frêche and Couderc were offering some seats on their list to at least one of EE, FG and PS right, although I guess Couderc's "grand coalition" offer wasn't taken seriously.

The PS didn't merge, since even they realize that would be explicitly supporting the racist. The PS has implicitly (or, in some cases, explicitly) called to vote for Frêche, only to "block the right/far-right" though obviously a rightist is preferable to a Pierre Laval left-populist. The PS' behaviour has been hypocritical and stupid.

[Хahar 🤔]

How many Germanophones are there in Alsace?

[Antonio the Sixth]

I think that the death of the policeman (killed by eta) can give the win to UMP in Alsace where the gap between UMP and PS is very close (in polls). I think that UMP will win there.

I highly doubt that, considering how stupidly the UMP exploited this affair...

[Tender Branson]

OpinionWay in Ile-de-France:



http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/Barom%e8tre%20OpinionWay%20Fiducial%20-%20IDF.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Réunion/Ipsos:

Didier Robert (UMP): 45%
Paul Vergès (Communists) : 34%
Michel Vergoz (PS): 21%

http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondage-Didier-Robert-en-tete-pour-la-premiere-fois_a15986.html

[Antonio the Sixth]

Réunion/Ipsos:

Didier Robert (UMP): 45%
Paul Vergès (Communists) : 34%
Michel Vergoz (PS): 21%

http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondage-Didier-Robert-en-tete-pour-la-premiere-fois_a15986.html

Oh no...

[big bad fab]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not really, the FN still got a good 18% or so there, which is not good compared to the region but good compared to similar areas in Paris or Lyon. But the FN is really a disparate coalition of diverging, unstable, sometimes even conflicting protest elements; it's hard to do good cross-regional comparisons in elections like these.

I would personally guess that because Marseille is much more pied-noir, but also much more ethnically diverse and economically polarized (Paris has poor areas, but no real inner-city dirt poor areas like the old PCF areas of Marseille's 8th sector; Lyon is even wealthier and middle-class on a general outlook) that the FN vote is a bit more stagnant (though not entirely, this election shows it well. This time you had much stronger showings in UMP areas than in old PCF/PS areas) and is a bit more based on old insecurity/immigration issues than it seems to be in Paris and Lyon (the high vote in Paris-16 is probably not based much on traditional FN issues such as insecurity but an anti-UMP vote from the bourgeois).

unrelated, but amusing results in Longwy: PS 37.53, UMP 13.35, DLR 13.31, PCF 9.61, FN 9.22, GRN 6.18, MNR 2.73, NPA 2.55
[/quote]

The Nr.1 of the DLR list is from Longwy if I remember well.

No big lessons from the FN result in Paris: its level there isn't really big and Paris has always voted differently.
Sure, the FN in Lyon and Marseille is high even in bourgeois areas, but there is still a hierarchy between popular and bourgeois areas.

On the contrary, I think the FN is pretty stable overall and it's amazing after 25 years.
But, of course, from time to time (and from place to place in one election), it's more the worker electorate that prevails or more the boutiquier electorate.
In this election, the UMP has probably lost on both electorates, partly towards the PS directly, partly towards the FN.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

People, in all the analysis and maps you do, don't forget to include the main point...abstention.

An analysis, and some maps that don't include this aspect are not worth it to describe the political situation in France and in each corner of France. In that sens, for maps for example, I think every data should be pondered with the abstention rate, and the percentages displayed, and colored, shouldn't be those of the official results, but these results pondered.

That's the most important political thing, more than the half of the country just doesn't vote.

[Hash]

Réunion/Ipsos:

Didier Robert (UMP): 45%
Paul Vergès (Communists) : 34%
Michel Vergoz (PS): 21%

http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondage-Didier-Robert-en-tete-pour-la-premiere-fois_a15986.html

Oh no...

How is it bad? Paul Vergès is a corrupt, paternalistic cripple criminal.

People, in all the analysis and maps you do, don't forget to include the main point...abstention.

An analysis, and some maps that don't include this aspect are not worth it to describe the political situation in France and in each corner of France. In that sens, for maps for example, I think every data should be pondered with the abstention rate, and the percentages displayed, and colored, shouldn't be those of the official results, but these results pondered.

That's the most important political thing, more than the half of the country just doesn't vote.

You're welcome to make your own maps, you know. Not everybody has time to make maps based on complex mathematical calculations and complex colour schemes. Plus, maps of abstention, which I've done in the past, don't tell us anything new. It's basically the same people who don't vote and so forth. No pattern is surprising, enlightening or even new. It's not like it's surprising that working-class voters, unemployed voters, immigrants, low-income voters in poor suburbs and young voters are more likely to abstain. There's nothing new in that. Neither is the fact, really, that more right-wing voters abstained in 2010 than left-wing voters.

Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

You're welcome to make your own maps, you know. Not everybody has time to make maps based on complex mathematical calculations and complex colour schemes. Plus, maps of abstention, which I've done in the past, don't tell us anything new. It's basically the same people who don't vote and so forth. No pattern is surprising, enlightening or even new.

Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

.k .k. I wasn't giving orders, it's just that to have a good photos of politics in population that is to be done, especially when the majority of the population doesn't vote. For example, it would also gives some relativity to votes to the extremes, like it's not 20% of an area which is FN, but 20% of the 40% of voters, which is different.