probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012 (user search)
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  probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012 (search mode)
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Author Topic: probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012  (Read 9983 times)
Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
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« on: October 03, 2008, 05:39:11 AM »

OK, inspired by the top 10 choices for early 2012 GOP frontrunner in this thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=81715.0

let me pose the following question: *If* Obama wins in 2008 (as looks increasingly likely), what is the probability that each of the following potential candidates will run for the 2012 GOP presidential nomination:

Crist
Giuliani
Huckabee
Jindal
Palin
Pawlenty
Pence
Romney
Sanford
Thune

Again, I'm asking about the probability that each of them will *run*.  Not the probability that they'll win the nomination or that they'll do well.  Just the probability that they'll run.  Again, assuming Obama wins this time around.

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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2008, 02:45:33 AM »

Jindal: The strongest candidate in the field, though he has to win reelection first.

If Jindal runs for reelection in 2011, then I'd say there's no chance of him running for president in 2012.  The Louisiana governor's race is in November 2011, no?  Unless there's going to be some dramatic reform of the primary calendar, the 2012 primaries will begin in January 2012.  So Jindal is going to run for president while simultaneously running for reelection for governor?  I don't think so.  I think he runs for reelection, and then waits until 2016 or 2020 to run for president......same probably goes for Crist and Palin as well.

Huckabee and Romney on the other hand have nothing better to do, so why not run for president again?  Wink  Seriously, they've both already set up their own PACs, which suggests that they still have long term political ambitions.  What could they possibly be setting up besides presidential runs in 2012?  They're the two most likely 2012 GOP presidential candidates (IMHO), should Obama win this time.  After them, probably Pawlenty, and then maybe Pence.

With Pawlenty, yes, I suppose he could run for a third term (unless he's term limited?)....but why?  If he has national ambitions, why not just retire from the governorship in 2010, and then run for president?  With Pence, the only question is whether he thinks he can successfully launch a presidential run from the House of Reps.
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Mr. Morden
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Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2008, 03:09:46 AM »

Jindal will only be 41 in 2012, he has some time to go.

Yes, exactly.  That's why it doesn't make sense for him to retire from the governorship of LA after just one term, in order to run for president in 2012.....since, as I mentioned, I can't really see him running for reelection as governor and for president at the same time.  He'll run for at least one more term for governor, and won't run for president until 2016 or later.
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Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,066
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2008, 08:42:42 PM »

Btw, Marc Ambinder is reporting that Newt Gingrich is interested in a 2012 presidential run, and is "already planting some seeds in Iowa and New Hampshire":

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/10/huck.php
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