probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012

[pragmatic liberal]

I think a lot will depend on what the political landscape looks like in 2012. If it looks like Republicans have a genuine chance at winning the election, then there will probably be a somewhat stronger field. If it looks like they're going to get blown out, however, then at least some of them probably won't run and the chances increase that the GOP nominee will be a dark-horse or sacrificial lamb.

Giuliani: doubtful. Like JSojournor said, maybe, given his ego. But he'll have been out of office for over 10 years and his epic failure in 2008 has taken a lot of shine off him.

Palin: Possibly, but it depends on how the ticket does in November -- if it ends up being close, then maybe. But if they lose in a substantial way, she'll get some of the blame. I'd say 25%.

Jindal: The strongest candidate in the field, though he has to win reelection first. I'd say Jindal will make an assessment based on Obama's popularity -- if Obama looks beatable, he'll run. If he doesn't, I think Jindal will sit the race out and wait till 2016. VERDICT: 50%

Romney: He may do it. He has the fame and the fortune for it, but I think his political clock is ticking. He'll be six years out of office after having been an only unpopular governor of a liberal state for 1 term. About 30%

Huckabee: I'd say the odds are <80%, unless he loves his new Fox News digs so much he opts out. I can't see him winning the presidency, but he could certainly win the nomination. And, hell, I could be wrong -- he's a very personable and charismatic guy, and his TV show will get him lots of exposure. The GOP establishment doesn't like him, but they may warm to him (as they historically do to the runner-up) -- or they may not matter. If the party is in bad shape and evangelicals dominate the primaries, he may get through anyway.

Crist: Unlikely. >20%. The rumors about his sexuality whether he marries or not ARE going to hurt him. But stranger things have happened. Certainly without that in his background he's certainly, at least on paper, a giant compared to the dwarfs that populate the rest of the field.

Thune: A decent bet. I'd say 50%, though like Jindal, he may wait until 2016 if it looks like 2012 will be a Democratic year.

Sanford: I don't see it. > 10% chance.

Pence: Definitely running. 90%. And unlike most House members running for president, he may actually have a serious shot at the nomination. He's sort of the de facto leader of the House Republicans these days, and both small-government conservatives and the Christian Right love him. His chances of getting the nomination decrease the more winnable 2012 looks for the Republicans. If their odds don't look good, however, he could well be the nominee.

Tim Pawlenty: 25%. I kind of feel his "moment" has passed. And he's not the most dynamic or charismatic guy -- he's the classic pol who'd need the VP position to become a big contender. He didn't get it and now he won't be VP. His odds in a presidential nominating contest don't seem to be good.

I also think Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi may run. I'd say there's about a 50% chance of it.

And I agree that Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah could well run. I actually think that the odds are very good I'll see a Mormon president in my lifetime. They form a very large base of the Republican Party in the fast-growing West, they're prominent in business and have representation in Congress and in politics well above their share of the population. Huntsman is a fairly effective and popular governor and he could do well. 30% chance.