probability that the following potential GOP candidates will run in 2012

[phk]

Jindal: The strongest candidate in the field, though he has to win reelection first.

If Jindal runs for reelection in 2011, then I'd say there's no chance of him running for president in 2012.  The Louisiana governor's race is in November 2011, no?  Unless there's going to be some dramatic reform of the primary calendar, the 2012 primaries will begin in January 2012.  So Jindal is going to run for president while simultaneously running for reelection for governor?  I don't think so.  I think he runs for reelection, and then waits until 2016 or 2020 to run for president......same probably goes for Crist and Palin as well.

Huckabee and Romney on the other hand have nothing better to do, so why not run for president again?    Seriously, they've both already set up their own PACs, which suggests that they still have long term political ambitions.  What could they possibly be setting up besides presidential runs in 2012?  They're the two most likely 2012 GOP presidential candidates (IMHO), should Obama win this time.  After them, probably Pawlenty, and then maybe Pence.

With Pawlenty, yes, I suppose he could run for a third term (unless he's term limited?)....but why?  If he has national ambitions, why not just retire from the governorship in 2010, and then run for president?  With Pence, the only question is whether he thinks he can successfully launch a presidential run from the House of Reps.

Jindal will only be 41 in 2012, he has some time to go.

[phk]

Jindal will only be 41 in 2012, he has some time to go.

Yes, exactly.  That's why it doesn't make sense for him to retire from the governorship of LA after just one term, in order to run for president in 2012.....since, as I mentioned, I can't really see him running for reelection as governor and for president at the same time.  He'll run for at least one more term for governor, and won't run for president until 2016 or later.

Age wise

2012 - 41
2016 - 45
2020 - 49
2024 - 53
2028 - 57

He should make a run at 2016 or 2020.

[phk]

Depends on the 2004 climate.