MI-SEN 2018: Kid Rock (Robert Ritchie) vs. Debbie Stabenow

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D, inc.)
Musician Robert Richie (R)

My county map prediction would have Stabenow winning all 2016 Clinton counties + Kent, Macomb, Saginaw, Isabella, Eaton, and Calhoun. And this would probably be pretty generous to Kid Rock. Stabenow could easily win Bay, Manistee, Lake, Leelanau, or Gogebic if she's lucky.

I really have no idea what the margin would be, considering that Kid Rock would be such an unpredictable candidate. He could be super popular in rural, northern MI (which I would somewhat expect, as Trump was extremely popular here), meaning Stabenow wouldn't be able to win Gogebic/Lake/Manistee, while simultaneously being extra unpopular in southern MI (which Trump somewhat was, but not unpopular enough to lose Macomb or Kent, which I think Rock could be toxic enough to lose), or he could be a complete disaster statewide because of how, uh... unconventional he is. Although 2016 showed that Michigan voters weren't necessarily opposed to Trumpian candidates, Trump is now quite unpopular here, the 2018 midterms are slated to be a significant Democratic congressional gain, and Stabenow did extremely well five years ago. I would be quite surprised to see her lose.