United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[ChrisDR68]

Could polling companies (who are ORB anyway?) and/or the media please not edit out undecided voters when asking about a referendum?

There have been similar online polls by the same company:

08-09 Jun Remain 45% Leave 55%
27-29 Apr Remain 49% Leave 51%
24-28 Mar Remain 51% Leave 49%
24-25 Feb Remain 48% Leave 52%
20-21 Jan Remain 52% Leave 48%

Maybe there's a trend when comparing the latest three of those polls.

Maybe

[ChrisDR68]

On the government's short term economic forecast if there is a Brexit victory watch this interview between Andrew Neil and Matthew Hancock from the Daily Politics on May 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR-gewWitjc

Neil at 4 mins and 20 seconds:

"I'm simply trying to work out why a recession which by your own report's prediction would be -0.1% per quarter for four quarters would lead to this huge collapse in house prices, this huge increase in unemployment when far deeper recessions have not done the same?"

Hancock's squirming at this point had me in stitches

Given that Cameron and Osborne's whole reason for staying in the European Union is based on the economic argument the Remain campaign is in big trouble if all their most biased treasury forecast can come up with is four quarters of -0.1 growth each.

[ChrisDR68]

Yep. But then that's Cameron for you; all tactics and no strategy.

A bit like a certain Mr Wilson?

[ChrisDR68]

How has the leave side addressed the issue of British citizens losing EU rights to retire in southern Europe without having to get a special non-EU citizen residence permit? I would think this would be an appealing argument for the remain side to appeal to older-middle aged voters.

Cameron prefers trying to scare the older population into voting Remain by stating their pensions would be at risk if Brexit happens.

There's nothing this idiot won't say in order to try to win this referendum.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/11/brexit-axe-state-pensions-david-cameron-nhs-cold-reality

[ChrisDR68]

All senior Conservatives (the Member for Uxbridge & South Ruislip absolutely included) have sounded at best unhinged during the campaign.

Hardly surprising.

The schism in the Conservative Party happened largely due to the Maastricht Treaty. Ever since then hatreds and resentments have been bubbling under only to be unleashed full scale by this campaign.

Also don't forget UKIP wouldn't exist at all but for that treaty. This whole thing has been 24 years in the making.

Even if Remain win on June 23rd this issue won't be going away anytime soon.

[ChrisDR68]

A source within the remain camp said Downing Street had shifted from being “utterly convinced” of victory in the referendum battle, to a “blind panic”. The source claimed that strategists had convened an emergency meeting on Friday, but a spokesman for Britain Stronger in Europe denied the suggestion.

The sense of panic among remain campaigners has emerged since Labour MPs started reporting negative feedback from voters in their constituencies. One senior figure in the party claimed that politicians all over the country, and particularly in working-class heartlands, had said that they believed their own areas would swing towards Brexit.

Another MP who is active in the remain campaign said the response from some constituents had been alarming, with some accusing politicians of being traitors for campaigning to stay in. He said the most noticeable message was about the idea that Britain could control its borders if it left the EU.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/13/jeremy-corbyn-to-flex-labours-muscles-in-eu-referendum-debate

[ChrisDR68]

I hadn't realized that Murdoch was in favour of Brexit. Rather surprising to be honest.

Are you being sarcastic?

His newspapers are almost wholly Eurosceptic and have been for decades. Now it could be that the editors of these newspapers are following their reader's feelings on all things EU rather than leading them.

I generally believe that to be the case.

Giving their readers articles that reinforce attitudes and feelings they already have is probably judged to be good for those paper's circulations.

That's particularly true (in my opinion) of the Daily Mail.

[ChrisDR68]

Corbyn was suppose to be couped 24 hours after winning IIRC

Corbyn is currently supposed to be even more popular with the party membership than when he was first elected so how is that meant to work?

[ChrisDR68]

ComRes has Remain ahead at 46-45, down from 52-41 in its previous poll, though it has tended to be one of the more favourable pollsters to Remain.

That's a 5% swing towards Leave compared to their previous poll and confirms the trend the other pollsters are showing.

It does bring an end to 6 straight polls showing Leave ahead though.

At this juncture it looks like Leave just have to keep banging on about immigration and they're home and dry.

The issue is killing the Remain campaign who have no answer to it.

[ChrisDR68]

It looks to me that the opinion polls broke in favour of Leave as soon as the migration figures came out on May 26th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Since then there's been a consistent drift towards Brexit.

I'm still expecting some sort of movement back towards Remain at the start of next week though.

Looks like it's going to be a nail biter on polling night!

[ChrisDR68]

Awful and shocking news.

How soon will the police release a statement about what motivated this monster once they've interviewed him?

[ChrisDR68]

With just 5 full days to go here's my stab at predicting the result:

United Kingdom
European Union Referendum
Thursday 23rd June 2016

Remain in the European Union____48.6%____13,046,739
Leave the European Union_______51.4%____13,801,177  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
___________________________100.0%____26,847,916
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Leave majority of 754,438 votes or 2.8% on a 58.8% turnout


_________________Remain_Leave___Turnout___Electorate_____Remain Votes_Leave Votes
Scotland____________63.9__36.1____79.2%____3,893,268______1,970,336____1,113,132
Northern Ireland______61.7__38.3____73.6%____1,198,966_______ 544,465_____337,974
North East___________46.2__53.8____52.7%____1,968,137_______ 479,190_____558,018
Yorkshire and Humber__41.5__58.5____56.1%____3,835,075_______892,863____1,258,614
North West__________51.4___48.6___55.8%____5,239,323______1,502,701____1,420,842        
Wales______________50.7___49.3____50.1%____2,268,739_______576,276_____560,363
West Midlands_______47.3___52.7____52.3%____4,093,521______1,012,651____1,128,260
East Midlands________39.4___60.6____58.4%____3,348,469_______770,469____1,185,03
East Anglia__________40.1___59.9____59.6%____4,263,006_____1,018,841____1,521,910
London_____________56.9__43.1_____51.5%____5,258,802_____1,541,013____1,167,270
South East___________44.4__55.6_____61.1%____6,288,366_____1,705,933___2,136,259
South West__________42.2__57.8_____60.7%____4,028,829_____1,032,001____1,413,498

_________________________________________45,684,501____13,046,739___13,801,177


Based on the electorates for the AV Referendum in 2011 (which are out-of-date but I couldn't find more up-to-date figures) that I found here:

http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/referendums/2011-UK-referendum-on-the-voting-system-used-to-elect-MPs

By the way I'm aware the total electorates and the votes cast don't add up to the same number in each region. I guess that's what happens sometimes when you do a percentage of a percentage

[ChrisDR68]

I mean, if there is no agreement post-Brexit, Britain is in for a very hard landing. Visas to travel cross-Channel, sharp reallocation of trade flows, huge financial crisis, massive expulsion of British citizens from Europe, etc., etc., etc. Of course there will be an agreement negotiated.

Pure hyperbole.

I'm on another forum discussing this referendum and a couple of Remain posters have gone completely demented because their side are now behind in the polls.

What's been written above could have been written by George Osborne and he currently has zero credibility with the majority of the British people (and deservedly so).

It's worth remembering that the European Union is primarily a political project not an economic one (with the ultimate goal being a single European state). That very often gets lost in all the heated debates that have taken place over the last few weeks.

[ChrisDR68]

The EU referendum was meant to be a Tory nightmare – but it has become one for Labour



BY GEORGE EATON

Remain strategists needed Labour voters to clear a path to victory. They may now perform that service for Leave instead. As many as 40 per cent of them back Brexit, compared to just 4 per cent of Labour MPs. In the view of one shadow cabinet minister: “It’s over already.” MPs speak of “horrific” postal vote returns.

The slide in Labour support is the main cause of anxiety in Downing Street. It was the Remain camp’s ominous internal polling that prompted David Cameron to clear the Tories’ media grid and make way for Gordon Brown and Jeremy Corbyn. His survival as Prime Minister now depends on those who voted against him last year.

MPs do not disguise the supreme obstacle facing their party. “Immigration cutting through is a nightmare for us,” a former shadow cabinet minister bluntly stated. Most MPs, principally those in the north of England and the Midlands, tell a similar tale. Some refuse to canvass local estates for fear of the abuse that they will attract. The Leave campaign’s vow to end the free movement of people trumps any offer from Remain.

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/eu-referendum-was-meant-be-tory-nightmare-it-has-become-one-labour

[ChrisDR68]

Why I'm Out: To be against the EU is not to be against Europe




by DAVID LISTER

In the last few weeks I have seen government ministers tell us that the EU has given us the benefit of annual leave. Yet I am old enough to remember the world before 1973, and I know that there were annual holidays, just as there are now. Those same people boast almost daily of the workers’ rights that the EU has brought, yet most of those are laws enacted by a British government.

And the economy? Well, yes, thanks to 40-plus years EU membership we are the fifth largest economy in the world. And what were we in 1970, three years before joining? We were – guess what – the fifth largest economy in the world.

One can be passionately in favour of a multi-cultural society and immigration, but passionately against uncontrolled immigration, though you wouldn’t know it to listen to the IN campaigners.

For the future, of course we will be able to find new trade deals. Australia trades with America, Africa and Europe, why on earth shouldn’t we?

And lastly, let’s nail another growing myth – that to be against the EU is to be against Europe. I love Europe, will continue to visit it regularly and feel a part of it, just as many did before 1973. But we can share that closeness, and the many common objectives, while at the same time being a sovereign country, making our own laws, accepting the many migrants we want from around the world, developing our own trading partners, making our own laws, and, on that harder to articulate, visceral level, glorying in our own identity and character.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-im-out-to-be-against-the-eu-is-not-to-be-against-europe-a7087231.html

A surprising article in the heavily pro Remain Independent but one I strongly agree with

[ChrisDR68]

There is a sense that in many ways this referendum is an exercise in 'English nationalism' (and a particular sort of nationalism at that) and not anything remotely British in any sense. There are advantages in rUK voting out and Scotland voting in, whether that means we narrowly get pulled out or narrowly 'keep England in'.

The 'reticent unionist', concerned at the pound and remaining in the EU, rather than any particular attachment to the UK as a political entity are about 1 in 10 of the electorate and the key to what I do feel is inevitable independence, in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.

Couple of if's and but's here:

If the UK votes to Remain in the EU later on this week and if Scotland gets it's independence within the next 10-15 years (which like you I think will happen sooner or later) another vote for the rest of the UK to stay or go from the EU is quite likely in my view.

Why?

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country. The English and Welsh are not keen on this at all (and never have been).

Another in/out referendum at this point without the brake of Scottish Remain votes would very likely see England/Wales/Northern Ireland leave the European Union.

With a Remain vote on Thursday my feeling is that our departure from the EU will be delayed for a while but is in the long run inevitable.

[ChrisDR68]

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country.

Any actual evidence to provide a basis for this assertion? I don't see any sign of Germany wishing to amalgamate into a single country with France, never mind Greece.

Not a problem

Take a look at the last paragraph on page 4 from the Five President's Report written by Jean-Claude Juncker published last June:



Progress must happen on four fronts: first, towards a genuine Economic Union that ensures each economy has the structural features to prosper within the Monetary Union. Second, towards a Financial Union that guarantess the integrity of our currency across the Monetary Union and increases risk-sharing with the private sector. This means completing the Banking Union and accelerating the Capital Markets Union. Third, towards a Fiscal Union that delivers both fiscal sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. And finally, towards a Political Union that provides the foundation for all of the above through genuine democratic accountability, legitimacy and institutional strengthening.

Once they reach the political union stage a single European state will be a reality. It all very helpfully written in plain English too

The bolded bits are in the original text so I copied it.

https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en.pdf

[ChrisDR68]

I have read that, despite EU subsidies, Cornwall is amongst the most Euroesceptic regions.

Cornwall isn't an official region though.

It's part of the South West which in my opinion will be one of the strongest Leave regions (together with the East Midlands and Eastern (East Anglia).

All three have an older population than the average (looking at the maps shown above) and the few local opinion polls I've seen back up their preferences for Brexit.

[ChrisDR68]

A map from Yovgov,  Blue Leave and Red Remain

As someone who has wanted the UK to leave the EU ever since the first Euro crisis suddenly erupted in 2009 showing everyone just how fundamentally incompetent this organisation is that map is very encouraging.

We'll know how accurate it is by mid Friday morning

[ChrisDR68]

If it's true, enjoy your recession and unemployment spike. Frankly, the EU and Euro businesses should retreat from the UK if it gets up. This is about much more than the EU itself, how this hasn't filtered through is kind of remarkable... kind of cute that the UK thinks it's so important that there won't be REAL consequences to a 'leave' vote.

I actually don't think it'll happen. It'll be closer than it should be, but I think remain will just get up.

Can you give me next week's lottery numbers please as you obviously know what will happen in the future before it even happens?

[ChrisDR68]

Although I've heard Boris mention it a few times in speeches on the stump very little has been said about where exactly the European Union is ultimately headed to.

Almost no mention of it has come from the Remain camp. Maybe the pan European state that the EU eventually wants to become is secretly popular with pro Remain UK politicians.

Another very good reason not to trust our current political class an inch on the European issue.

[ChrisDR68]

John Curtice at What UK Thinks:

At the same time, what is clear is that, despite the fact that there has been some recovery in Remain support since last week, its position is still much weaker than it was before the official period of campaigning began on May 27. Once we strip out the effect of the various methodological changes that the companies have made during the intervening period, every single pollster has registered a substantial swing to Leave during this period. It would appear that, whatever emerges from the ballot boxes tonight, it is Leave that won the referendum campaign.

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/how-leave-won-the-battle-but-remain-may-still-win-the-war/

[ChrisDR68]

voter turnout at council housing appears to be astoundingly high.

That may be good news for the Brexit side

[ChrisDR68]

ITV reporter just said Farage's private polling suggested Leave had just edged it but that with turnout being so high they're now pessimistic that that is what has actually happened.

[ChrisDR68]

Scotland may have a much lower turnout than expected, if ture.

That would be amazingly good news for Leave if true as Scotland is likely to be the strongest Remain region of the UK.