Canadian federal election - 2015

[Smid]

Justin Trudeau. The Zoolander of Canadian politics.

[Smid]

Senate reform is in no way a left-wing policy. Harper attempted to reform the Senate, the Senate knocked back his Bill, he has subsequently appointed to the Senate people who support this policy. Senate reform doesn't sit on the left-right axis.

[Smid]

Earl, I've mentioned in the past that you and I agree on the desired outcome of Senate reform. Actually, there is a good article that appeared about a week or two ago about reforming the Queensland Parliament. I think I agree with everything the author wrote. The state upper house was abolished back in the 1920s, and meant that majority governments (particularly those with large majorities) have been able to do pretty much anything. The article proposes bringing in a smaller Lower House, re-creating an Upper House, and electing the Upper House by PR.

[Smid]

Earl, I've mentioned in the past that you and I agree on the desired outcome of Senate reform. Actually, there is a good article that appeared about a week or two ago about reforming the Queensland Parliament. I think I agree with everything the author wrote. The state upper house was abolished back in the 1920s, and meant that majority governments (particularly those with large majorities) have been able to do pretty much anything. The article proposes bringing in a smaller Lower House, re-creating an Upper House, and electing the Upper House by PR.

The problem is than there is a custom than Senate doesn't block legislation passed by the House. So, it's not even useful as a counter-weigh to majorities.

Except when passed legislation is a Senate Reform Bill.

I think if there was an elected Senate, especially one elected by PR, it would be highly unlikely for a Government to have a majority in the Senate, and the Senate might become a bit more independent. Still partisan, but it would be like having a minority government, although without the ability to trigger an election through a confidence motion... basically more stable, but with the ability to prevent a government having complete freedom.

[Smid]

I think I've ironed out the creases, let me know if you see any errors. Still finalising checking for rogue pixels, but I think I've found them all.




And here is a version to make things a bit clearer along the BC coastline and some other island parts:

[Smid]

I found a rogue pixel in Edmonton-Wetaskiwin. It's been fixed. I also made a minor change on the main map for around Saskatoon (no change to inset). There may have been one other change, I forget. Anyway, if you previously downloaded this map, please update.


Also, here is the 2011 Results Map. I'm about to commence work on Conservative/NDP/Liberal vote share maps, but they will be over the next few days. Results as provided by Pundits' Guide because Elections Canada provided notional figures based on ridings they provided, prior to the Parliament making a few changes (and since I didn't know the extent of the changes, I didn't want to use their figures. Anyway, here are the overall results:

[Smid]

I found a couple of errors in the maps, which I've corrected. I'm still not entirely satisfied with a couple of parts of the main map - Richmond Hill appears to border with the City of Toronto, and Brossard - St-Lambert appears to border Saint-Jean, rather than merely touching corners. I may just leave them as is, because it's only on the main map and they're so small it's barely noticeable. There isn't much room to make corrections, so the other option is to merge them into a single dark grey strip (La Prairie, Brossard - St-Lambert, Longueuil - Charles-LeMoyne and Longueuil - Saint-Hubert and possibly also Montarville, Beloeil - Chambly, and/or Pierre-Boucher - Les Patriotes - Vercheres), and if that's the case, I'd probably also do the Northern equivalent as well: Riviere-des-Mille-Iles, Therese-de Blainville, Terrebonne, and possibly also Mirabel, Riviere-du-Nord, Repentigny, and/or Montcalm.

For Toronto, the option there is likewise to amalgamate the relevant block of ridings - possibly including Newmarket-Aurora, into a group as well.

In all cases, all affected ridings appear in the inset and are able to be shaded there more clearly. I could leave all as is, either to be shaded, or to be left grey, or to consolidate them. Interested in what people think. Are they off enough that they need to be fixed, or can they left be? They're pretty small on the main map, but are noticeable at a higher level of zoom.

Anyway, as I mentioned, there have been a few other errors that I've corrected, as well. If you've downloaded the base map previously, it's probably best if you go back to the Blank Maps Gallery and re-download it. Meanwhile, here are the base maps, and vote share maps for the Conservatives, NDP, Liberals, and Greens. Bigger versions in Gallery, etc. I may also do a winning margins map, and possibly a turnout map, too. Meanwhile, enjoy:


2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution - Blank Map



2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution - Blank Map Shaded



2011 Canadian Federal Election Results Map - Adjusted to 2013 Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - Conservative Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - NDP Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - Liberal Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries



2011 Canadian Federal Election - Greens Vote Share Map - Adjusted to Redistributed Boundaries

[Smid]

2011 Canadian Federal Election - Margins of Victory by Riding, Notionally Adjusted to Redistribution

[Smid]

I'm in the process of putting together a proportionate swing calculator. I had one for the previous boundaries. I can probably complete it tomorrow, but if not, I can certainly complete it this week.

Meanwhile, I found another two rogue pixels. I've corrected them and will be re-uploading the maps for anyone who wishes to download. If you're playing along at home and would rather just fix the mistakes yourself, one is in Rivière-des-Mille-Îles (in the Greater Montreal Inset) and the other is in the main map, on the electorate boundary, between West Nova and South Shore - St. Margarets.

Additionally, here is a turnout map:

2011 Canadian Federal Election Turnout Map, by Riding, Notionally Adjusted to reflect redistributed riding boundaries

[Smid]

Nice work on the maps, Smid.

Thanks!


Incidentally, I found another rogue pixel (in addition to the two noted in a previous post, in Quebec and Nova Scotia). This one is on the boundary between Cambridge and Wellington-Halton Hills, in the Golden Horseshoe inset. Please correct this, or download the corrected versions, if you have already downloaded any maps. The maps in the Gallery have now been updated prior to this post, and available for download.


Meanwhile, here are three maps showing how competitive the Conservative Party, Liberal Party and NDP are in each riding. The map compares the party's vote with its strongest competitor, shading the riding green if the party holds the riding (in which case the strongest competitor is the party that ran second), and red if another party holds the riding (obviously, if another party holds the riding, this is the strongest competitor). Obviously, if the party won the riding or came second, the shade is the same strength as the margin, but the margin is larger if the party polled third or lower.

Basically, pale green = key seat (sandbagging/defence), pale red = key seat (target), dark green = safe seat (held by party), dark red = safe seat (held by someone else). Of course, parties can experience large swings, so it's not perfect - much of Quebec would have been a fairly dark shade of red for the NDP prior to last election, after all. Nonetheless, some may still find these interesting. (Edit: Obviously, a dark red seat may not necessarily be a "safe seat" in the true sense of the word, merely that the party in question is a long way behind the leader - for example, Elmwood-Transcona on the Liberal Map is reasonably dark red, but last election was a close contest between the Conservatives and NDP).


2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution Map - Conservative Competitiveness by Riding
Based on 2011 Canadian Federal Election Results, notionally adjusted to reflect boundary changes



2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution Map - NDP Competitiveness by Riding
Based on 2011 Canadian Federal Election Results, notionally adjusted to reflect boundary changes



2013 Canadian Federal Redistribution Map - Liberal Competitiveness by Riding
Based on 2011 Canadian Federal Election Results, notionally adjusted to reflect boundary changes

[Smid]

CRA, Atlantic-wide: 55/26/16.

Watch out Megan Leslie. She'd lose by a hefty margin based on those numbers.

The interesting thing is - if you look at their polling chart on p2, at every election, the NDP has out-performed on election day compared to their final poll, while the Liberal Party has under-performed on election day compared to their final poll.

[Smid]

I think it was a mistake for the Liberals to take her. She is damaged goods and I think a net negative. They would have been better off ignoring her.

[Smid]

Brutal.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2015/02/13/poll-gives-joe-oliver-big-lead-over-eve-adams-in-eglinton-lawrence.html

This, coupled with the fact that the Grits are prepared to run an erratic candidate in a riding they (on paper) would be wanting to win back, suggests a thing or two about their internal polling in the riding. If their polling suggested it was competitive, I suspect they would try to find another riding for her. I doubt they would want her in caucus following the election, particularly if there is a minority.

[Smid]

How long will it take for Trudeau to blame Adams' inevitable loss on the NDP?

No, I think if the internal polling is showing strength for the incumbent, he may be looking for an excuse for a possible loss in the seat. "We would have won the seat if it hadn't been for Adams" provides a useful narrative that won't spook potential grit candidates in a future election, the way a Tory hold might otherwise. It is telling, however, that they aren't even trying to find a star candidate for the riding this election.

[Smid]

Earl, your firm's polls, extrapolated by proportionate swing, would have an NDP win in Burnaby North - Seymour.

[Smid]

Liberal candidate parts Facebook joke about domestic violence: http://ipolitics.ca/2015/06/17/liberal-candidate-deletes-domestic-abuse-joke-after-conservatives-attack/