ScotVote - August 1979 Scottish Assembly election

[Clyde1998]

Prologue: For the first time since 1707, Scotland has home rule. The UK Labour government, under pressure from the Scottish National Party, has delivered its promise of a Scottish Assembly. However, the Winter of Discontent is fresh in the memory of the voters, but it's unclear whether this would have an affect on Scottish voters.

Conservative: The Scottish Conservative Party elected George Younger to be their leader going in to this election. He's been the Member of Parliament for Ayr since 1964 and has served as the Under Secretary of State for Scotland under Ted Heath and as the Shadow Secretary of State for Defence. The Tories are running a campaign that's expected to be similar to their October general election campaign - focusing on the failings of Labour in Government at Westminster. They also pledged to raise the standard of education in Scotland.

Labour: Labour have won every UK general election in Scotland in the last twenty years and they are going in to bat with the Secretary of State for Scotland, Bruce Millan. He's been the MP for Glasgow Craigton since 1959. Labour are pledging to increase funding for the National Health Service, while focusing on the damage that the Conservatives would do to Scotland if they were elected. They're also committed to ensuring that there is an expansion to housing, to ensure that unemployment is reduced, as well as ensuring that people live in modern homes.

Liberals: The Liberals have been growing in their support in the previous UK general elections. They're led by Russell Johnston, who's been the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats since 1973 and has been the MP for Inverness since 1964. They're pledging to keep Labour and the Conservatives in check, should either fail to win enough seats to form a majority government. They're committed to supporting additional funding for the health service and education, as well as proportional representation for Assembly elections.

SNP: The SNP have achieved their major goal of the last decade - the Scottish Assembly - but aren't pushing for full independence in this election. Instead Gordon Wilson, their leader, is pushing for more powers for the Assembly - notably taxation powers. The SNP have placed themselves as a 'social democratic' party, but this isn't set in stone and the party is having internal struggles over moving further to the left.

You have two days everyone and I'll judge if there's any point continuing this series based on the turnout.

[Intell]

Labour.

[Sumner 1868]

Labour.

[MAINEiac4434]

Labour.

[Kingpoleon]

I vote Liberal, but I support devolution.

[Intell]

I think people should vote SNP next election, and it would make sense IRL, due to hatred for Thatcher leading to Scottish independence.

[Unconditional Surrender Truman]

SNP, to make things interesting.

[Barnes]

Of course, in real life, support for the SNP collapsed in 1979 and didn't really return as a major force until devolution was achieved in 1999. The Nationalists were also profoundly anti-EEC at the time and Scotland delivered the largest "No" votes in the 1975 referendum. How times change...

I think Labour this time to keep in mind the actual increase in support it got in Scotland in '79 as contrasted with the rest of the country. An Assembly during Thatcherism will be extremely interesting.

[Clyde1998]

Of course, in real life, support for the SNP collapsed in 1979 and didn't really return as a major force until devolution was achieved in 1999. The Nationalists were also profoundly anti-EEC at the time and Scotland delivered the largest "No" votes in the 1975 referendum. How times change...

I think Labour this time to keep in mind the actual increase in support it got in Scotland in '79 as contrasted with the rest of the country. An Assembly during Thatcherism will be extremely interesting.

Looking through the election results in the 70s, it appears that the SNP only started moving backwards following the motion of no confidence vote in the Callaghan government. In the regional and district elections in 1977 & 78, they were over 20% - compared to only 12% in both from 1974. The fact that this timeline delivered the Scottish Assembly, the SNP wouldn't have withdrawn their support in the Labour government of the time and any no confidence vote would've failed. Additionally, the Scottish Parliament gave them a platform to become a major party in Scotland, as they became the main opposition - so it's possible that this timeline could benefit them in a similar way.

The SNP were anti-EEC until the election of Salmond as leader in 1990. He was the big pusher of 'independence in Europe'; around this time support for independence was in the mid-30s - with about 75% of those people supporting EEC membership for an independent Scotland. In March 1979, support for independence was at only 14%.

It will be interesting to see how this develops during the Thatcher years; it's possible that the Assembly could reduce the collapse of the Tories, due to a different identity north of the border. Their opposition to devolution in the 80s and 90s eventually led to the wipeout of 1997 - whereas in this timeline devolution has already been delivered. That being said, Thatcher did get rid of the Greater London Council, so it's possible that we could see a Tory manifesto in one of these elections with a pledge to get rid of the Assembly.

Additionally, if Labour perform poorly in charge of the Assembly, it could benefit the other parties - causing a shift in Scottish politics. Also, the creation of the SDP in 1981 could see their support move away.

[Clyde1998]

Final few hours everyone.

[Clyde1998]

August 1979 Scottish Assembly election

Labour - 41.2% (47 AMs)
Conservative - 25.7% (10 AMs)
SNP - 22.9% (10 AMs)
Liberals - 10.2% (4 AMs)
Vote shares slightly adjusted to reflect constituency results.

The first Scottish Assembly election resulted in an unsurprising result, as Labour won a convincingly. They won six more seats than they achieved in the October 1974 general election; winning a huge majority in the process, with nearly double the amount of seats won by the opposition. Their opponents are concerned that a majority of this scale could cause complacency within the party. Bruce Millan will become the first First Secretary of Scotland, heading the Scottish Executive.

The Conservatives performed poorly, falling six seats to just ten. Embarrassingly for them, their leader George Younger, lost his seat of Ayr by 35 votes to Labour. The party narrowly held on to their last Glasgow seat - Hillhead, which would have seen them reduced to third. The Conservatives will become the main opposition to Labour in the first Assembly, however.

The Scottish Nationalists fell a seat on their 1974 performance, but hold a very strong position moving forward. Their third place finish suggests that they're going to become a mainstay in Scottish politics. With the collapse of the Conservatives, the party will be targeting second place in the next election.

Meanwhile, the Liberals achieved their highest vote share in Scotland since 1929 - winning four seats. Worryingly for them, there appears to be few seats, on paper, that they seem able to win in the next election.

With Labour widely expected to lose the general election in two months time to Margret Thatcher's Conservatives, it's seems unclear how the new Assembly will fit in to the British political mould.