GA-6 Special election discussion thread

[Hindsight was 2020]

All jokes aside I really don't buy into the whole "he needs to hit 50 now" idea I can see him beating  Handel or Gray 1 on 1

[The_Doctor]

Based on the 2% Trump win in Georgia's 6th coupled with the strong wave of Democratic enthusiasm why isn't it at least likely that Ossoff reaches 51% on Tuesday? So far the Democrats are running ahead of their 2016 numbers and this is a suburban Atlanta district. Why would they vote for a Republican if they believe they're voting on the Trump Administration?

I don't have the side-by-side numbers to definitely confirm it, but I'm expecting that a greater share of likely voting Democrats in GA-6 have already early voted compared to who had done so in KS-4 at this comparable point. I remember Cohn saying a few days ago that something like 80% of the people remaining who had a 80% chance or greater of voting in a midterm were Republican or Republican leaners.

That 30-point gap in preferences in Sedgwick between EV (Thompson +22) & ED (Estes +10) could look quite small compared to what we see in GA-6 if there isn't substantial breakdown of usual voting fundamentals.

So you feel the Democrats are cannibalizing too many early votes? I'm not sure what you're saying, although that's a pretty interesting assessment.

RRH polled the race; there's indicators that Ossoff might be stronger than we anticipate. Just a thought.

[Adam Griffin]

So you feel the Democrats are cannibalizing too many early votes? I'm not sure what you're saying, although that's a pretty interesting assessment.

RRH polled the race; there's indicators that Ossoff might be stronger than we anticipate. Just a thought.

If this is correct, then yes:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/851623999436197889

[Tartarus Sauce]

Based on the 2% Trump win in Georgia's 6th coupled with the strong wave of Democratic enthusiasm why isn't it at least likely that Ossoff reaches 51% on Tuesday? So far the Democrats are running ahead of their 2016 numbers and this is a suburban Atlanta district. Why would they vote for a Republican if they believe they're voting on the Trump Administration?

I don't have the side-by-side numbers to definitely confirm it, but I'm expecting that a greater share of likely voting Democrats in GA-6 have already early voted compared to who had done so in KS-4 at this comparable point. I remember Cohn saying a few days ago that something like 80% of the people remaining who had a 80% chance or greater of voting in a midterm were Republican or Republican leaners.

That 30-point gap in preferences in Sedgwick between EV (Thompson +22) & ED (Estes +10) could look quite small compared to what we see in GA-6 if there isn't substantial breakdown of usual voting fundamentals.

Will it matter if Ossoff is at 60% in the early vote? According to Cohn, the current EV electorate is 46% D, 37% R, 17% NA, which makes that quite difficult, but perhaps there are a fair amount of "crossover" votes. What % of the overall vote do you expect to come from the EV?

In KS-4/Sedgwick County, Thompson got 61% of the EV; he barely carried Sedgwick overall and lost the CD by 6-7 with Sedgwick comprising 70% of the CD's vote. If the gap between ED/EV is even modestly larger than that for GA-6 as a whole, then there's no way he hits 50% or comes even reasonably close.

We're for sure going to see a massive split between the early vote and the election day vote, but we don't know yet which way that split will tip the balance. It could be the early vote is so pro-Ossoff that the election day vote can't compensate, or Ossoff could indeed miss the 50% mark because Republicans turned out in sufficient numbers on election day. The current D/R primary voter breakdown for the early vote doesn't demonstrate much right now, as the aforementioned Sedgewick County early vote broke 61% for Thompson despite the primary voter EV advantage indicating 2 points in the Republican's favor, so there was a ton of crossover votes. We have no idea just how large Ossoff's lead is in the EV right now, but it's almost assuredly way higher than the 46/37% D/R breakdown would suggest given how hard this district swung against Trump.

Anyway, Republicans don't have as much wiggle room here as they did in Kansas; if the Democratic overperformance is similar to the degree it was in Kansas, Ossoff is coasting past 50% rather comfortably regardless of what the final EV-ED split is. Even if he doesn't hit 50, if he hits anything above 45%, he's got a good chance at winning the runoff, which is a possibility people have been underestimating.

In summary, Democrats will have reason to celebrate either way. Either Ossoff hits 50% and gets the seat outright, or he hits the high 40s which will likely place him as a favorite for the run-off. There's little reason to believe the non-Ossoff vote will entirely consolidate around the winning Republican candidate and many reasons to bet against it. The only result that would truly be disappointing would be if Ossoff cratered in the low 40s.

[Adam Griffin]

Let's assume things play out like they did in KS-4, but with a slightly higher percentage of voters casting early ballots. If 40% of the vote is EV and plays out along the margin above, then the remaining 60% would be Trump +14. This would produce an electorate that Trump won by one point (identical to 2016 electorate). If these GOP early voters are slightly more D-leaning, then we'd end up with a plurality/majority-Clinton electorate, but not by much.

Since the EV is likely to continue its shift toward the GOP, it's more likely that the electorate winds up being one that Trump won by a few points (unless, again, these GOP voters are substantially more pro-Clinton/Ossoff than we might expect otherwise).

I'm personally not confident that Ossoff can win unless the electorate as a whole is something like Clinton +6 or greater, because "Trump =/= Generic GOP" and many of these GOP/Clinton voters have sane choices to consider.

[Adam Griffin]

[Gass3268]

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[Co-Chair Bagel23]

To be honest, probably not. But don't rule it out yet. And don't give up the damn fight till the results are finalized.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Even if Ossoff loses is it really a victory for Republicans? Handel or Gray can easily be Comstock or Issa in a couple of cycles.

[krazen1211]

Even if Ossoff loses is it really a victory for Republicans? Handel or Gray can easily be Comstock or Issa in a couple of cycles.

Of course not. You are forgetting that there will be skilled Gerrymandering.

[Figueira]

Remember that if Ossoff doesn't make 50%, there's still the runoff, and the expectations game will probably evolve quite a bit between now and then.

[Gass3268]

Remember that if Ossoff doesn't make 50%, there's still the runoff, and the expectations game will probably evolve quite a bit between now and then.

Ossoff also has a huge warchest where he could immediately start bombarding the Republican winner with negative ads the instant the race is called next Tuesday.

[Adam Griffin]

Remember that if Ossoff doesn't make 50%, there's still the runoff, and the expectations game will probably evolve quite a bit between now and then.

Ossoff also has a huge warchest where he could immediately start bombarding the Republican winner with negative ads the instant the race is called next Tuesday.

I'm not so sure. His burn rate has been very high - almost comparable to Ben Carson-type fundraising schemes - and only had like one quarter of the $8 million raised on hand as of a week ago or so. That's still probably a lot more than any one GOP candidate will have at the onset, but I imagine the discrepancy will narrow very quickly once there's a nominee...and even more so if Ossoff's massive fundraising numbers aren't really indicative of low-cost, high-yield fundraising.

[Gass3268]

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[Classic Conservative]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/rrh-poll-sponsored-by-decision-desk-hq-ossoff-39-handel-15-gray-12-in-ga06/

[Pandaguineapig]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/rrh-poll-sponsored-by-decision-desk-hq-ossoff-39-handel-15-gray-12-in-ga06/

If this poll Is anywhere near correct the dems have wasted a ton of money

[Wiz in Wis]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/rrh-poll-sponsored-by-decision-desk-hq-ossoff-39-handel-15-gray-12-in-ga06/

N=321, IVR/Internet. While the results are similar to others, it's worth noting that this electorate is going to be very hard to poll.

[Gass3268]

https://decisiondeskhq.com/news/rrh-poll-sponsored-by-decision-desk-hq-ossoff-39-handel-15-gray-12-in-ga06/

N=321, IVR/Internet. While the results are similar to others, it's worth noting that this electorate is going to be very hard to poll.

Also:

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[windjammer]

I mean, seriously, who really expected him to win outright without a run off?

[Pandaguineapig]

It does look like Ossoff has stalled, and his history of exaggerating/outright lying about his resume coupled with the fact he got parachuted in from out of State gives the republicans ample material against him in a runoff

[windjammer]

And by the regarding this poll:
All republicans: 51%
All democrats:   43%

I expect the final result to be close , a pub win by less than 5 points.

[Adam Griffin]

Not good, but definitely more in line with what I was expecting before all of this hoop-la made me think there might be a shot for Ossoff (my original prediction was that Ossoff would get 41-43% of the vote; I haven't necessarily abandoned that belief). This poll seems to be GOP-friendly but the fact that it shows Ossoff only at 50 among early voters - presumably measured before the past couple of days of heavy GOP voting - is a very bad sign.

[Ashley Biden's Diary]

Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatives turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Democrats aren't going to win the House, or even make substantial gains. KS being close was a fluke because of the Brownback disaster but even there it was still a loss. Conservatrash turn out in droves for these elections to find an outlet for their sadistic urges against the poor and the "other". Decent people don't vote in midterms, for whatever reason.

Jeesh on bad poll an it's doom and gloom over here

[DrScholl]

RRH is a very conservative site and I would be skeptical of any poll the released. The polled LA-Gov and had Vitter down only 6 and he lost by more.