2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[lilTommy]

Nanos with sh*tty NDP numbers again

(Ontario)

PC: 42%
Lib: 38%
NDP: 16% (!)
Grn: 3%

That's a drop of 7% from other pollsters for the NDP.

Meanwhile in NL, the provincial Liberal party selected a new leader after Yvonne Jones stepped down due to cancer. They selected former MHA Kevin Aylward who will be running in St. George's-Stephenville East.

It was a Nanos poll, i remember hearing chatter before about them? t

About the NL grits, well blimmy! that was quick, but they did need to resolve that quick to be ready for Oct.

Also, i'm shocked that the religion is still a deciding factor in parties?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If it can be in Germany, then why not Newfoundland? Especially as we're really only talking of vague tribal identification and nothing more serious than that.

[DL]

I have to say that I'm finding polling in Ontario to be very, very erratic (as it was throughout the lead up to and during the federal election). Just in the past two weeks we have seen the Liberals as low as 28% and as high as 38%. We have seen the NDP as low as 16% and as high as 24%. The Tories seem to be moving around within a much narrower range from a low of 38% to a high of 42%.

I'm not sure what to make of it all.

[Hatman 🍁]

My next projection is going to be depressing. Starting in September, I will have to do poll averages to make things less all over the place.

[Holmes]

Should probably wait until mid-September to really take Ontario polling seriously.

[RogueBeaver]

Dissolution should be around Labour Day. Hopefully this is just a dead cat's bounce.

[mileslunn]

As we get close to election day you should see less variability between pollsters.  Lets remember up until the final week, Nanos showed the NDP much lower than other pollsters, but by the final week, the numbers matched others.  When people are less firm in their intentions, methodology matters, but as people become firmer in their intentions things average out.  And for our NDP friends feeling depressed, I should note that Nanos had the NDP as low as 8% in Ontario at one point during the federal election, so things can change.  Likewise in 2008, they had the Tories at only 26% one week before the election while their final results put them at 39% in Ontario.

[RogueBeaver]

To Ontarians here: any evidence on the ground of a Liberal surge, since we can't trust the polls yet?

[adma]

As we get close to election day you should see less variability between pollsters.  Lets remember up until the final week, Nanos showed the NDP much lower than other pollsters, but by the final week, the numbers matched others.  When people are less firm in their intentions, methodology matters, but as people become firmer in their intentions things average out.  And for our NDP friends feeling depressed, I should note that Nanos had the NDP as low as 8% in Ontario at one point during the federal election, so things can change.  Likewise in 2008, they had the Tories at only 26% one week before the election while their final results put them at 39% in Ontario.

And another thing I noticed, if I read correctly: Nanos hasn't placed the ONDP over 20% in *years*.

[RogueBeaver]

If someone doesn't talk Rae out of his batsh**t insane idea that he could help by stumping for Dad, the NDP numbers will go up. They hate Rae much more than the PCs do as a vendu.

[Hatman 🍁]

I would positively drool of Rae stumped for Dalton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Another Ontario projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/ontario-election-2011-prediction-august_16.html

I have come to conclusion that blogger sucks. It kept removing my conclusion section, so it's not as long as it originally was. It seems it can't handle 2 tables. Maybe I'll have to do something up in paint next time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wordpress is better.

[Linus Van Pelt]

1.

In the post-WWII period, the provincial party was dominated by fractious disputes between the Cape Breton coal unions and the mainland party who had to appeal to a quite different electorate; I'm pretty hazy on the details of this period or what it was all actually about, but the end result was basically that the mainlanders won and industrial Cape Breton left the party en masse for a long time.

Was that the split that led to Paul MacEwen forming the CB Labour Party (and then later joining the Liberals) or an earlier one? MacEwen's seat is NDP again, of course.

Basically I plead the bolded excerpt - but while that's an example of the kind of thing I have in mind, the issues go back at least a generation earlier.

2. Regarding the recent discussion, I think that for all that Canadian voters can be asymmetrical in their federal/provincial voting patterns, there is still, at least in Ontario where the party systems are basically parallel, a group of moderate/low-information voters who are at least somewhat influenced in their polling responses by which election is in the media focus. I doubt that all that much is really happening other than this crowd switching their attention from Harper/Ignatieff/Layton to McGuinty/Hudak/Horwath.

3. In unrelated news, Wildrose Alliance has had some sort of mass office staff resignation, which doesn't seem like great news for them, and about which there appears to exist a rule that every media story use the cliché phrase "growing pains".

[adma]

John Crosbie's riding also included much of the souther part of Avalon which the Tories still do well in.  Also the Tories did win the two St. John's seats in 2004 and 2006 under Harper, but I agree that was more out of tradition than any real support for the federal Tories.  As for Moncton and Saint John, Moncton seems possible, but Saint John might be more difficult since the Tories got almost 50% and I don't think there are a whole lot of Tory-NDP switchers in New Brunswick.  The most likely way for them to win it is hope the Liberals recover somewhat and all their gains come at the expense of the Tories and pick up a few marginal votes thus a three way split.

Well...Saint John is an interesting case.  Remember that Elsie Wayne won in 1993 more out of larger-than-life personal popularity and schism in the Liberal camp (the 1988 Grit candidate ran as an independent); her incumbency probably also artificially suppressed the NDP during the federal Alexa years.  Otherwise, relative to other so-called Tory strongholds in New Brunswick, Saint John actually leans "red"; IOW it's it's not a "Confederation of Regions" Toryism.  That the Tories fared better this year in Saint John than Moncton has plenty to do with incumbency, not to mention the lack of Moncton/Dieppe's Franco-Acadian demo--but imagine if it were an open seat and Elizabeth Weir was running this year, it'd probably have been Jack Harris II.  (Keeping in mind, too, that Jack Harris's seat saw IIRC the fourth strongest PC result in 1993.)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Saint John and Moncton both had for a while big-name local Tories, but both would default Liberal. Fredericton on the other hand defaults Conservative.

[lilTommy]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

Phew. For a moment there, I thought that was a federal poll.

[lilTommy]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

Phew. For a moment there, I thought that was a federal poll.

Sorry didn't mean to scare you there

Also the NDP has its first add up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnLNpz3dw_I&feature=player_embedded

anyone else see the exact same format as the federal from the campaign launch? its good to see were sticking with the good clean positive campaign.. plus the site FINALLY has candidates listed... i'm a huge fan of the pictures as i'm a visual learner
http://ontariondp.com/en/candidates

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like Nanos was off, again.
new Angus-Reid poll:
http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1047068--provincial-election-to-be-a-tight-3-way-race-poll-suggests?bn=1#.Tl4joc56u3E.facebook

Tories - 38
Liberals - 31
NDP - 24
Green - 6

the election hasn't even started but i haven't seen the Dippers above 24%, could this be the Plateau for the NDP?

Phew. For a moment there, I thought that was a federal poll.

Sorry didn't mean to scare you there

Also the NDP has its first add up http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnLNpz3dw_I&feature=player_embedded

anyone else see the exact same format as the federal from the campaign launch? its good to see were sticking with the good clean positive campaign.. plus the site FINALLY has candidates listed... i'm a huge fan of the pictures as i'm a visual learner
http://ontariondp.com/en/candidates

Finally. They're not all there though, but it's nice to see a list of some sort.

[Hash]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder what kind of clown they'll find to put up in Orleans.

Still no one. Seems to be the only riding in the city where the NDP is completely dead. No active riding association, no active campaigns, nothing. ever. It's too bad, I know a lot of public servants live in the riding.

I would blame suburbia, but Nepean-Carleton has a competent candidate in Ric Dagenais, and Carleton-MM even had a contested nomination.

[Hatman 🍁]

Regional breakdowns: http://www.angus-reid.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/2011.08.31_Ontario_Vote.pdf

NDP ahead in the North, close in Hamilton-Niagara.

[DL]

City of Toronto (416) is also shaping as a three way race - when you have Liberals at 36% and NDP and Tories at 28% each - it smells to me like a three way split in the seat count because of the way the Liberal vote is spread evenly across the city.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

City of Toronto (416) is also shaping as a three way race - when you have Liberals at 36% and NDP and Tories at 38% each - it smells to me like a three way split in the seat count because of the way the Liberal vote is spread evenly across the city.

Or a Liberal catastrophe as they finish second everywhere.

Mind you, have to be wary of regional breakdowns (or breakdowns of any kind). People are too trusting of poll internals.