muon2
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« on: September 24, 2004, 11:29:01 PM » |
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The most likely scenario is Bush 2/3 - specifically IA and WI. Since the primary season the bases and swing voters in IA and WI have always been more amenable to Bush. It is also the case that the ABB factor has been higher in MN throughout the year making that state the most likely of the three to go for Kerry.
A major faux pas by either candidate or unusual external events could change the current picture. I'll give it a 25% chance that those events lead to a Bush win of all three.
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