Worst case scenario but still a win for your candidate?

[Brittain33]

There are closer results, but I don't think they're likely, based on these assumptions:

1. We hold all Kerry states.
2. Iowa is a gimme.
3. NM will tip before Colorado.
4. NH will tip before Virginia.
5. A tie is unpredictable for Obama if McCain wins the PV.

[Brittain33]

There are closer results, but I don't think they're likely, based on these assumptions:

1. We hold all Kerry states.
2. Iowa is a gimme.
3. NM will tip before Colorado.
4. NH will tip before Virginia.
5. A tie is unpredictable for Obama if McCain wins the PV.

Uh...that's far from "worst case scenario."

It's 274-264. I then listed the reasons why I think any result between that and 269-269 is unlikely. This is the narrowest win I think we'd achieve, if we win.

If you wanted to ask "How do you think a 269-269 result or 270-268 result would look?" you could have done that.

Or you could disagree with my assumptions, too, if you choose.

[Brittain33]

B33, I no longer believe NH will tip before Colorado.

Aha. I suspect I'm biased by past elections.