I declare with absolute certainty that Republicans will retain control of the Senate in 2016, regardless of who wins the White House. Anyone want to take that bet?
If the Republicans win a pickup of the presidency … correct.
If the Democrats win a hold of the presidency … we have to look at every race; because this party would need a pickup of five Republican-held seats in order to flip the majority. Much of this would have to do with the pattern of about 80 percent of the U.S. senate races which end up carrying in states for the same party at both presidential and senatorial levels. (This did happen over the last four election cycles of 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012.)
