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[House of Representatives]

Also running for Frémont’s regionwide Senate Seat and House of Representatives

Running for an office that no longer exists is really cute.

Indeed it is! That is why our first campaign plank will be a restoration of the Fourth Constitution of Atlasia!

There appears to be an error in the AP/NYT count for Maverick County in TX-23. They have Gonzalez up 115-0. 

Now they've changed it to a 1-0 Gonzalez lead with only 1% of that vote reporting.

With just a 600 vote difference this still feels too close to call.

Decision Desk has Maverick County at 335 Gonzalez vs 257 Herrera with 90% reporting

Yeah if that's the final result, Gonzales has this.

Culberson County, which voted just about 50/50 in the last prez election, reported 31 votes cast out of a population of over 2,000.

31 votes.

These districts are basically rotten boroughs.

Bobby is crazier. Trump's "inyect disinfectant" was a joke. I feel that in his heart, Trumo is a classist that does an act to get money and power from average people.

Kind of live in an area so described. Anecdotally, I am seeing nothing showing this.

If you compare 2012 to 2016, the 60ish counties that have the least number of voters and make up 25% of Indiana's electorate, Trump's winning margin from them doubled in size. So Romney won them by a combined ~180k while Trump won them by a combined ~370k. Biden slightly improved in the middle counties but the bottom tier he performed marginally worse than Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile these Democratic Party rural county affiliates have completely atrophied the last 15 years. It's mostly ignored on this message board but local political party organization absolutely does matter as far as electoral performance. I don't consider my local Democratic Party county affiliate to be functional. No one is running for office locally outside of 1 guy that is running for state legislature and will get completely trashed. No one is running for county office and from 2018 onwards they have ran a grand total of 1 county government candidate in 4 elections counting this year.

2016:

Prez: Trump (R) 72.1, Clinton (D) 21.4, Johnson (L), 5.1, Write-in 1.4
Sen: Young (R) 63.3, Bayh (D) 28.9, Brenton (L) 7.8
Gov: Holcomb (R) 64.2, Gregg (D) 31.8, Bell (L) 3.9
Cong: Banks (R) 77.4, Schrader (D) 15.5, Snyder (L) 7.0

2018:

Sen: Braun (R) 67.3, Donnelly (D) 28.5, Brenton (L) 4.1, Write-in 0.1
Cong: Banks (R) 74.3, Tritch (D) 25.7

2020:

Prez: Trump (R) 73.1, Biden (D) 24.1, Jorgensen (L) 2.6, Write-in 0.2
Gov: Holcomb (R) 66.0, Rainwater (L) 18.3, Myers (D) 15.7
Cong: Banks (R) 76.4, Coldiron (D) 23.5, Write-in 0.1

2022:

Sen: Young (R) 74.5, McDermott (D) 21.2, Sceniak (L) 3.8, Write-in 0.5
Cong: Banks (R) 72.5, Snyder (D) 22.2, Gotsch (I) 5.3

Notice the performance of Bayh, Gregg, and Donnelly compared to every other Democrat on that list. Anecdotally for this one county, the Joe Biden presidency has not been Bayh, Gregg, or Donnelly. For comparison to above, McCain won the county in 2008 60.0 to 38.6 and Romney won the county in 2012 68.2 to 29.4.

Biden's saving grace for rural areas is I don't think his share of the vote will go up at all and may go even a little lower, but Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will run and his votes will reduce Biden's losing margins. (The reverse should be true to some degree where Biden is naturally more dominant however.) But I see nothing to support your hypothesis based on what I see on the ground as one involved in politics to a minor degree. Democrats continue to have no message for rural areas and that leads to them losing those areas by 50-point-plus margins.

I mostly agree returning to my parent's home in rural New Hampshire with one exception. Dobbs brought to life the Democratic performance in state legislative races where they went from around 33% to 44% while the rest of the ticket remained non existent. It's often not enough to win seats, but some previously apolitical folks have run for legislature posy Dobbs in 2022 and recieved crossover support.

However, I also know plenty who voted Democratic for legislature for the first time in 2022, may do so in 2024 but would never think of voting for Biden.

[House of Representatives]

Also running for Frémont’s regionwide Senate Seat and House of Representatives

Running for an office that no longer exists is really cute.

I'd say each episode has been better than the last. I'm surprised they went for a Doctor-lite episode this soon though.

That was weird but good. RTD's approach to politics remains clunky as ever, but it made emotional sense. I don't ever want answers on this episode, I want it to remain gloriously ambiguous.

In that last respect, it reminded me of Midnight, one of the best episodes from RTD's first tenure. There certainly have been episodes where that doesn't work.

This is like one of those Russian elections in which your choices are either Putin or some decrepit, on-the-take member of the Communist Party.

So it’s Joe “Yeltsin” Biden vs Donald “Zyuganov” Trump vs. Robert “Lebed” Kennedy?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_Russian_presidential_election?wprov=sfti1#Results

This is good news for Biden then, Russian electoral fraud notwithstanding.

[NYT Op-Ed] I’ve Seen How the Biden-Trump Rematch Ends, and It’s Pretty Scary

An elderly president isn’t sure whether he should run for a second term. His approval ratings are low, and there are concerns about his health. His advisers, adamant that he is the only bulwark against a formidable opponent, insist that his candidacy is crucial for the survival of democracy. If he does not run, they say, dictatorship will prevail. Despite his reservations, the president agrees. He pledges to defeat his opponent and protect his country’s future.

This isn’t America today; it’s Russia in 1996. That aged president is not Joe Biden but Boris Yeltsin. His fearsome rival is not Donald Trump but the Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov. As I watch the American presidential campaign unfold, I’ve been constantly reminded of their contest. For all the differences between them, I can’t shake a sense of déjà vu.

So at some point, Olaf Scholz will find Biden wandering around Berlin in his underpants, and eventually Kamala will be replaced with with Mayor Pete who ascends to the presidency and in 2050 or so invades Canada under Prime Minister Nathan Fielder?

No, but it should be.

Massive FF