MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[heatcharger]

I'm far more hopeful about this race than GA-06.

Why? Montana swung 6 points to the right in 2016 giving Trump a 20 point win while GA-06 swung 21 points to the left, with Trump winning only by 1.5%. I realize that Democrats have won statewide in Montana many times and even just last election, but fighting the fundamentals of the state seems harder than in an individual district that trended largely in the positive direction.

[heatcharger]

What would be the county map for a 3-point Quist win? Where would he over and underperform the generic winning D in the state?

I would imagine it would be almost identical to Bullock's victory map.

[heatcharger]

Thanks for doing this cinyc, even though in all likelihood, that's a huge outlier.

I could buy the idea that Gianforte is the Montana GOP's Martha Coakley though. Running twice within 6 months probably leaves a bad taste in voter's mouths.

Hopefully a legit pollster comes through sometime soon.

[heatcharger]

Here is an interesting thought.  If Quist wins and holds the seat until redistricting, he may thereafter have an easier time keeping his seat, since Montana is expected to gain a congressional district.  Assuming the states districts are drawn so that one takes up the west half of the state, and another takes up the east half, he would be competing for a seat that I think would be either a tossup or Democrat leaning, since Quist is from the western half of the state. 

That would probably require a Democratic governor to get elected in 2020, because in the hypothetical scenario of Montana getting a second district, a Republican could just force him out East and draw a new Western district. I'm skeptical of a Democrat keeping the mansion for 20 straight years, and assuming Bullock challenges Daines and Quist is still in office, that'd be asking to send 2 Democrats to Washington and 1 to Helena. That's a tough sell to a state that voted for Trump by 20%.

[heatcharger]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

WHICH IS SOMETHING REPUBLICANS DO ANYWAYS. They've already cut attack ads that portray Quist as a pawn of Pelosi.

It's because it doesn't fit their narrative. They want to win in GA-6 with Ossoff because it'll show that their "trade a blue collar vote for a white suburban vote" strategy was actually right all along, and having a populist win wouldn't contribute anything to that.

Do you even read this forum? cinyc's link shows that the DCCC dumped a six-figure sum into the MT Democratic Party.

[heatcharger]

Went from 52/39 Pianoforte to 45/37.

Lol at Gravis hyping this as Quist gaining ground.

[heatcharger]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

[heatcharger]

Honestly, Amanda Curtis (who is one of my favorite MT Democrats, so I might be biased) comes across as much more authentic than Quist.

Uh, what? This is quite surprising coming from you.

I have no idea how this election will go. My current prediction is Gianforte +5, but given the lack of any quality polling and the volatility of Trump, there's a wide spectrum of possible outcomes.

[heatcharger]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

Gravis is such a joke.

[heatcharger]

5PM EST = 6PM EDT.

Gravis is such a joke.

Let's wait to see if they polled the non-existent Green candidate again before definitively calling them a joke.

They're just late.  But they said around 5 Est, not 5PM on the dot.  It takes time to write up their analysis.  Note that the server for their website's Blog and Poll results has been down since at least yesterday.

This fits into the pattern of them being a completely unprofessional pollster. They spell candidates names wrong, include candidates who aren't on the ballot, copy other pollsters publishing formats, all in addition to being a totally unreliable polling outfit, which is the least they could do.

Also, Matt, relax.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/GravisMarketing/status/866794001948700672

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lol

[heatcharger]

They didn't even tweet a link to it, just screenshots of the PDF from their phone... total joke pollster and I wouldn't be surprised if they're fake.

[heatcharger]

I'll trust that real Republican internal that had Trump's favorability at 46/47. Seems more reasonable anyway.

[heatcharger]

Will Montana be quick to count since most of the vote is by mail? I'm not trying to go to sleep at an unreasonable time, I have stuff to do the next day lol.

[heatcharger]

There needs to be audio/video so it can make it on local news, preferably in the next 15 minutes.

Most people have already voted/made up their minds though.

[heatcharger]

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/867527573168848897

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Can we please get an O.J. chase tonight?

[heatcharger]

Apparently Jacobs is in critical condition and he can't breathe.

OMG, fck Gianforte.

If that is true, how did the reporter tweet about it?

Must've been over the scanner.

Sounds like fake news.

[heatcharger]

Oh, for heaven's sake. There were witnesses.

Didn't say the story was fake and Gianforte seems to be in some trouble, but how could Jacobs be in critical condition after making multiple tweets about it? It would be odd if his condition suddenly deteriorated an hour after getting hit.

[heatcharger]

Here is the audio

Not good!

[heatcharger]

Yeah, Jacobs is a moron and Gianforte should have ignored him. This was stupid.

Explain how you deduced that from the audio. He asked him a question about healthcare and Gianforte decided to bodyslam him.

[heatcharger]

Gianforte needs to do damage control now.... somehow... Honestly, IMO it'd be the best if he were just honest about this entire thing and apologized publicly.

That's not enough.

Yeah, well, after a congressional candidate body slams a reporter, few things are going to be enough to lessen the damage done.

It's not physically possible for most folks to body slam an adult male. If Gianforte can pull that off he is a major stud to be sure.

2017 GOP folks. Beta males need not apply. Must physically assault reporter to receive "stud" status.

Proof is in the pudding, isn't? This guy gets in someone's face, gets (allegedly, by his own accord) owned, and goes on twitter about broken glasses.

Pure beta move!

Yes, the voters prefer alpha males.

Sweety, there are 140 pound high school wrestlers who can easily lift an average sized 180 pound man and body slam them. It's not a difficult task for most fully grown men to do.

The fact that you think the average man can't lift your typical dude and slam him says more about your physical strength or lack thereof than anything else.

Yeah, this is krazen's most beta post yet.

[heatcharger]

So why wasn't he arrested on the spot with a plethora of witnesses? I think I have some theories why.

[heatcharger]

So uh, how would a second special work?

I suppose Gianforte would have to resign at some point, and then another election would be held 85-100 days after the vacancy. So presumably sometime in late August - early September.

[heatcharger]

Can we agree that if Gianforte weren't a rich white man, he'd have been shoved in the back of a squad car in handcuffs immediately after this happened?

This. The fact that they just let him get away freely even with all these witnesses and audio is the clearest example of some form of privilege. You all can debate which kind.

[heatcharger]

Also, as someone else in IRC pointed out (forgive me; I forget who), this means that Gianforte will likely not run for Governor in 2020, meaning that Fox will probably do so rather than run against Tester. It's astonishing how one man's absolutely f-cking stupid actions will affect this entire state in the future.

No? Why would this incident change Fox's mind? He could still run for Senate if he wants to. I think Rosendale might be the GOP nominee for governor in 2020 assuming Fox runs against Tester. Republicans will probably lose the gubernatorial race by 2-4 or so.

I don't really understand CX's logic, but I think Fox could win an open gubernatorial rather comfortably. I wonder if that's more appealing to him than having to run in a barn burner of a race against Tester.