Scottish Independence Referendum - 18 September 2014

[afleitch]

A country of 5 million people is openly considering burning their bridges with their 300 year old union in no small part because they're not happy with (and have felt victimised by) the Conservative Party.

Which isn't the main reason why independence would happen. Removed from Holyrood that might be the perception but look how well that worked for Scottish Labour in 2011 The big problem for Labour is that they essentially run 'Better Together', at least they are the public face of it. They would quite easily, and quite rightly take on a great deal of the blame for things going wrong.

In the event of a YES vote, why can't it be agreed that none of the parties run in Scotland and nominal SNP candidates will run in all constituencies unopposed under the proviso that they won't take their seats?

That would make sense. I think it all depends on what 'body' is set up to deal with negotiations. If the Commons itself has little input then there's no need for strong Scottish representation there.

[afleitch]

Realistically, some or all of the SNP would end up as the centre-right party, as the Irish republican movement did in Ireland (though it ended up as two big parties and a bunch of small ones).

Why's that? Is there a notable centre-right current in the SNP that's just "going along" with those in the party on the left until independence is achieved?

SNP doctrine tends to have been quite hazy at times. They'll do what they have to in order to get independence.

They're not called the Tartan Tories for nothing.

They haven't been called the Tartan Tories with any degree of accuracy since 1979. Given that philosophically the party did a 180 on their economic views (and on Europe in particular) in part due to the '79 Group's later ascendency in the early 90's, it's not an accurate description. You could, at best make a comparison to the SNP's governance and electoral performance to the Canadian Liberals from the 90's to the mid 00's.

[afleitch]

The Sunday Herald has come out in favour of Yes. It's the only national newspaper to do so.

[afleitch]

That DOES NOT, however, justify the current movement on the part of the Scots. Scotland has a relatively old population, has a reputation for unhealthy citizens, and SNP, from all accounts, is visibly a populist left-wing party. I don't see Scotland well managed in their hands. They will conquer freedom from London, thats true. But I doubt Scotland will be able to be an independent successful nation at least for a while.

Besides, I love the Union Jack. But if I was English, I very certainly would vomit upon the quickest glance at this:

No.

[afleitch]

The Sunday Herald has come out in favour of Yes. It's the only national newspaper to do so.

The news from the ground (and my attempts at obtaining a copy from 20+ shops), the paper has sold out of copies.

[afleitch]

There is no chance of the rest of the UK changing the flag if Scotland votes yes.

The flag itself originated after the Union of Crowns but before the Act of Union. It is the a flag of the United Kingdoms. It's only been adopted casually as the flag of Great Britain. I don't see it being amended if Scotland becomes independent.

[afleitch]

Anecdotally I know about ten English folk personally and all but two are a Yes voter. There is a selection bias as a number of them are involved in the arts and culture (which tends to be both 'local' in outlook and international) but I'm not seeing any animosity. Those who think independence will throw up a border tend to be those who have no family or business connection outside of Scotland and rarely visit the rest of the UK. Those who have settled here and have those connections don't seem to be as concerned by that 'threat.'

[afleitch]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-28279790

Given 28% is equivalent to the entire remaining Scottish population plus one friend that's not a bad result

[afleitch]

Peter Kilfoyle comes out for independence.

[afleitch]

Anyone watching the debate?

I'm interacting with the television

[afleitch]

It's just cringey actually. Celebrity endorsements are probably as off putting as endorsements from business leaders.

On the issue of the debate, I've actually been pleasantly surprised that the public perception doesn't seem to be what the papers say (quelle suprise). Note; I work in a 'youreallgoingtolooseyourjobs' civil service department. Salmond may have mishandled the pound question (though his answer is technically correct) but Darling didn't confirm what powers would come in the event of a no vote or concede Scotland could be a successful nation. I was surprised by how much that came up the day after. I doubt it will move the polls.

[afleitch]

For those who don't know, this is the link everyone is talking about.

Quite an interesting reflection on the psyche of 'entitlement' from some corners of the UK. It's like telling a woman who filed for divorce that because the husband doesn't want her to go he should be able to stop her.

[afleitch]

Two new polls. No still led, but gap down despite the Yes campaign being 'finished' last week.

52-48
55-45

There is a rule in Scottish politics. As tempting as it is, don't make an election about Alex Salmond.

[afleitch]

So seems like the No is headed to a 60/40 win. While I think this would probably be the right choice for Scotland, I must say I'm a bit disappointed, because a secession would have been really fun.

For politicos, yes. For actual British people, no.

Speak for yourself

[afleitch]

Depends on whether he makes a coherent response to the currency issue.

Here's the interesting thing, the polls a week after the debate, after the issue of the currency had been talked about ad nauseam to the point that it was apparently the end of Salmond's career, narrowed. I think standing his ground actually worked retrospectively.

[afleitch]

I'm happy with how that turned out.

[afleitch]

Guardian/ICM poll on the debate has 71% saying Salmond won, 29% Darling.

Well if shouty Salmond had let anybody get a word in edgeways...

He wasn't particularly shouty in either debate. I'll take the 51-49 to no voting intention with ICM. It's a good start.

[afleitch]

There was the first debate. The snap ICM poll of debate viewers showed no change in voting intention but suggested Darling had won the debate. Survation however came out with a larger No lead than it's previous poll. Cue 'Salmond finished' headlines for the next 10 days. YouGov said there was little change and then two polls said that Yes had closed the gap. Then came the second debate. Snap ICM poll showed no change in voting intention but suggested that Salmond had won the debate. Survation then came out with a poll showing that Yes had narrowed the gap, even though this was them reverting to the previous levels of support...

And so it continues.

The problem for the pollsters is this.

1. They are polling Scotland.
2. They are polling a referendum.
3. They are used to weighing by voting intention but can't decide by which election on which to do so.
4. They are having to adjust for men/women.
5. They are having to adjust for how many 'English' born are in Scotland because they are disproportionate No voters except in some samples where they are not.
6. They don't know what the turnout is going to be because the polls suggest it might be the highest in two generations yet experience would suggest something high, but more modest
7. They don't know who is more likely to turnout if the turnout is high or low
8. If they get it wrong and get red faces, it's not as if they are going to be faced with polling the same issue again.

[afleitch]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDi1OXJn4Vw

I can't believe this. Horrendous to watch.

Which is why they will never let you see this;

http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/local/fife/margo-macdonald-and-jim-sillars-the-target-of-vile-attack-in-fife-1.513018

Because eggs is eggs...

[afleitch]

Yougov coming into line a bit today. No lead is down to 6% from 22% in July.

EDIT: 53-47

[afleitch]

That's true, of course. But nevertheless there is now reason to believe that the Yes campaign has some momentum, which hasn't really been the case before now (except in a slow treacly sense).

While I (have to) expect a No victory, I've been very surprised at how unfocused the No campaign is at the moment; there's a hint of perhaps misplaced desperation that is starting to seep into the public consensus. From the start, I don't think that No expected it would have to even try. Now that it just might have to, it's not sure what to say.

I think the key this time round are non voters and Labour voters. In 2011 Labour thought it would win and towards the end of the campaign thought it would loose but not by much of a larger margin than in 2007. It's vote held up in the 'swing' areas it was canvassing but collapsed in areas where it took it's vote for granted. It's very difficult to canvass for a referendum such as this but from what I've been aware of, No (who are fairly thin on the ground) are targeting areas that are 'swing' areas politically at the GE/Holyrood. I'm not entirely sure I see the logic in doing that.

If the polls move towards 50/50 and are in any way close to the mark, then it will all depend on who get's their supporters out to vote.

[afleitch]

I think YouGov changed some of their polling method or something (could be wrong), but this sort of polling volatility isn't really that unusual for an electoral event in Britain. Campaign events often leads to significant poll shifts, though they aren't always 'real' (c.f. all of the various Liberal surges since 1974).

YouGov changed it's methodology I think two or three polls ago. It wasn't polling 17 year olds and was not applying a weighting for people not born in Scotland.

It's impossible to tell whether the debate or any other campaign event has had any impact on the polls. They were narrowing prior to Debate 1. There were six polls post debate with the last three showing movement towards Yes after the immediate impact of the debate. Since Debate 2 there has only been two polls with some movement towards yet. So we can't really say anything yet; it might just be a gradual movement.

[afleitch]

It's Panelbase. Yougov polled at the same time and that's out at the weekend. Panelbase is probably being held back to be released the same day to either compliment or challenge Yougov depending on that result.

Miliband dropped by my home turf yesterday.

[afleitch]

Any chance of polling firms messing with their adjustments just to show a Yes lead just so that their client sells more paper ?

Every polling firm is messing with their adjustments with each new poll. That's what happens when the picture becomes clearing in the final few weeks of an election...or less clear.

[afleitch]

Yougov have Yes leading by 1.