House Leadership Megathread: it's House of Cards but without the monologues

[Bacon King]

HOUSE LEADERSHIP ELECTION MEGATHREAD 2015

With McCarthy out, the entire Republican Conference is in chaos. Due to the intransigence of the House Freedom Caucus, any potential candidate for Speaker must demonstrate that they are supported by at least 218 Congressmen. Until that happens, no new Speaker can be elected and therefore Boehner will legally be forced to remain as Speaker of the House until the end of the term - even if he resigns his seat.

Declared Candidates for Speaker
Jason Chaffetz (publicly stated he will drop out if Paul Ryan enters the race)
Daniel Webster (said he will probably drop out if he loses the support of the Freedom Caucus)

Those two were running for Speaker before McCarthy dropped out, and both of them remain in the race.

The following list are those who are considering a run, those who are being urged to run, and those who have been named by multiple credible sources as a possibility for Speaker.

Potential Candidates for Speaker
Paul Ryan - after numerous denials, pressure from his colleagues has forced him to "consider" a run
Tom Cole - named by many people, supports Paul Ryan
Cathy McMorris Rogers - wants Paul Ryan to run
Tom Price - mentioned as a potential candidate to unify all the GOP factions
Darrell Issa - publicly stated he is considering a run if Paul Ryan doesn't
John Kline - mentioned as a "caretaker" candidate, supports Paul Ryan
Greg Walden - offered himself as a possible interim Speaker
Lynn Westmoreland - openly considering a run
Newt Gingrich - seriously suggested by several Congressmen; will do it if elected
Jeb Hensarling - repeatedly mentioned as a potential "unifier" among GOP faction
Mike Conway - considering a run
Marsha Blackburn - considering a run
Jim Jordan - leads Freedom Caucus, not running, for some reason The Hill say's he's 2nd likeliest to win
Bill Flores - RSC Chairman; will run if Ryan doesn't
Mike Conaway - will consider running if Ryan doesn't
Michael McCaul
Candice Miller - said to be considering a run

Unnamed Bipartisan Unity Speaker - suggested by Charlie Dent



Here are other threads about the current drama!

"Keven McCarthy Drops Out" thread
An Atlas poll about who the next Speaker will be
a modest proposal to Make Congress Great Again
A thread by blue3 pertaining to Gingrich's hypothetical candidacy
A thread by ProudModerate2, noting concerns about increasing extremism in the GOP Conference
jojoju wants Mario Diaz-Balart to be Speaker

[Bacon King]

Peter Roskam has collected fifty signatures from his fellow House Republicans to call for a extended special conference meeting to allow the GOP to have a thorough debate about on the upcoming Speaker election. This delay will give the anti-McCarthy campaign more time to organize.

[Bacon King]

OP updated

The special conference is scheduled for tomorrow at 5PM

[Bacon King]

To be elected, the Speaker needs a majority among all votes that are cast for eligible candidates. It's theoretically possible for Pelosi to be elected Speaker, but it would require at least sixty Republicans to vote "present" or not vote at all (and even if for some bizarre reason that were to happen, the GOP majority could then immediately pass a motion to vacate the Speakership which would kick Pelosi out again)

[Bacon King]

The Speaker can be from the minority party?

It says a lot about the average American that even people who post on politics forums haven't even bothered to read the Constitution.

I'm sorry but I don't see how "The House of Representatives shall chuse their Speaker and other Officers" would, on its own, definitively answer Mr. Bigby's question

[Bacon King]

Whoah, Paul Ryan also supports Price.

Price is pretty right of center, no?

Price is very right of center, but so is Scalise, and Price doesn't have the baggage that Scalise has.

And being from Oklahoma and knowing the congressionial field, I'm very surprised that Tom Cole, a Boehner ally and a guy obviously rising through the ranks, isn't going for spot #3 and Markwayne Mullin (who, for all intents and purposes, is a backbencher even compared to Cruzite Jim Bridenstine from my district) is running for it.

Price is the kind of guy who has significant appeal to both major factions within the GOP. He is a member of the establishment but rhetorically he is very conservative.

Regarding the Whip race, I'd say it's still entirely tenuous this early on. I assume Tom Cole isn't running because he's more-or-less next in line to replace McHenry as Chief Deputy Whip in the event if McHenry wins

[Bacon King]

Mia Love and Jason Chaffetz to support drafting Trey Gowdy for Majority Leader.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/the-gavel/2015/09/jason-chaffetz-says-trey-gowdy-could-be-next-majority-leader-214196?cmpid=sf
https://www.facebook.com/repmialove/posts/443656592488671

I doubt it will happen because it would get in the way of his Benghazi investigation, but I'll add his name in the OP until he denies he's running

[Bacon King]

OP is updated.

The House Republicans are considering passing a motion that would require leadership candidates to vacate their current leadership roll before they can run for a new one. Both the leadership and the Freedom Caucus are said to be supportive, so there's a good chance it will pass. If it does, this means all three elections would happen at the same time.

[Bacon King]

The Tea Party has already started Boehnering McCarthy: http://firemccarthy.com/

[Bacon King]

• The House Freedom Caucus is up in arms over McCarthy's statements about the Benghazi Committee - there are rumors that even if he wins the internal Republican Conference election, he wouldn't have 218 votes to be elected Speaker
• Conservatives within the party are not be satisfied with either Price or Scalise, and are said to be searching for a better alternative, but no one is stepping up
• The Whip race is turning into a McHenry vs Sessions contest; the McHenry camp is claiming to be in the lead

And fun fact! Out of the eight candidates for leadership positions, only one of them has been re-elected more than five times: Pete Sessions. If/when either McCarthy or Webster are elected Speaker, it will be the first time since 1891 that someone was elected Speaker in their first decade as a Congressman.

[Bacon King]

Chaffetz preparing to run for Speaker:

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/chaffetz-launches-long-shot-bid-for-house-speaker-214375

It looks like we found the Freedom Caucus candidate! While he is not publicly a member himself (and there are at least several members of the House Freedom Caucus who publicly deny their membership in it, mind you), he's had a great working relationship with them since this incident happened. That means he basically starts off with 40 votes in the bag (I'm not saying he'll win but he will be a big headache for McCarthy)

[Bacon King]

Bacon King,
Wasn't Chaffetz much more interested by the United states senate rather than gaining influence in the house?

He's not going to win the Speaker race. The fact that he's thrown his hat into the ring will just raise his profile and that can't hurt him.

And on the off-chance he somehow does manage to win, I think being Speaker right now is worth more than possibly being a Senator four years from now...

[Bacon King]

"Even if Kevin is elected Speaker [behind closed doors], he can't get 218 [votes] on the floor," a House Republican source said.

[Bacon King]

"Even if Kevin is elected Speaker [behind closed doors], he can't get 218 [votes] on the floor," a House Republican source said.

Chaffetz is dreaming. There is no way he's going to be elected speaker. Period.

It's not really even about Chaffetz- most of the House Freedom Caucus seem to love causing obstruction for its own sake. If they have the votes to keep McCarthy below 218 I imagine they will be able to extract quite a few concessions


Here's something that would change up the dynamic of the full-Congress Speaker election- a Democratic congressman has motioned for the Speaker to be elected by secret ballot!

[Bacon King]

Chaffetz officially announces, and is admitting openly that he plans to keep fighting all the way

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Also, there will be a meeting of the Republican Conference at 2PM on Wednesday where they will consider, among other things, whether someone should be required to resign their current leadership position before they're allowed to run for another

[Bacon King]

Boehner has delayed the votes for Majority Leader and Whip, so the only Conference vote on Thursday will be for GOP Speaker nominee. Some are saying this is due to concerns that McCarthy may not be elected, but IMO it's more likely that the Conference just wants to give the leader/whip candidates more politicking time

[Bacon King]

Freedom Caucus to endorse Webster.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/house-freedom-caucus-endorses-rep-webster-for-speaker-214527

It's like they want to be irrelevant.

The rules of the House Freedom Caucus require 80% of their members to agree on it before the organization itself makes an endorsement. There are 42 known members of the HFC (it's impossible to know their full member count because they do the whole Fight Club thing). This means at least 34 GOP Congressmen aren't voting for McCarthy. If they maintain their opposition through the actual Speaker election, it would keep McCarthy below 218 votes and prevent his election. There's no reason to believe they wouldn't actually do this, which means they have the leverage to demand major concessions from the Republican leadership. McCarthy must either pay their ransom in order to become Speaker, or call their bluff and risk a major embarrassment to both himself and the party.

This is what it feels like to be on the other side of obstructionism

[Bacon King]

Freedom Caucus to endorse Webster.

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/house-freedom-caucus-endorses-rep-webster-for-speaker-214527

It's like they want to be irrelevant.

The rules of the House Freedom Caucus require 80% of their members to agree on it before the organization itself makes an endorsement. There are 42 known members of the HFC (it's impossible to know their full member count because they do the whole Fight Club thing). This means at least 34 GOP Congressmen aren't voting for McCarthy. If they maintain their opposition through the actual Speaker election, it would keep McCarthy below 218 votes and prevent his election. There's no reason to believe they wouldn't actually do this, which means they have the leverage to demand major concessions from the Republican leadership. McCarthy must either pay their ransom in order to become Speaker, or call their bluff and risk a major embarrassment to both himself and the party.

This is what it feels like to be on the other side of obstructionism

If they hold the vote and no one gets 218 votes, what happens?

they keep holding votes until a majority of voting Congressmen support a single candidate

[Bacon King]

GOP conference vote for speaker is in 4 hours, fwiw

[Bacon King]

In an interview with a FOX reporter this morning, Webster proudly proclaimed he has been so busy campaigning for Speaker that he has not slept or eaten in two days

[Bacon King]

Looks like he chose to bow out and remain Majority Leader rather than sell his soul to the Liberty Caucus

[Bacon King]

Just to point out, there's currently a resolution under consideration by the House that would require a secret ballot for the Speaker election...

[Bacon King]

Dana Rorabacher proposing a "caretaker speaker" just to have a warm body filling the office until the next election

[Bacon King]

House Freedom Caucus meeting right now to find a viable compromise candidate - word is no luck so far

[Bacon King]

Chaffetz speaking now, he's still running for Speaker lol