New Senate Rankings

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Top Ten Races

1. Virginia (open Republican seat) - Mark Warner currently has a huge lead over all potential challengers. His lead will shrink, to be sure, but he is the odds-on favorite to win this seat.

2. New Hampshire (incumbent: Republican John Sununu) - Sununu may be the Rick Santorum of 2008, with Jeanne Shaheen currently leading by a double-digit margin.

3. Colorado (open Republican seat) - Rep. Tom Udall has a big lead on fundraising, but the extremely conservative nature of the state's rural areas keeps this from being a sure thing.

4. New Mexico (open Republican seat) - Possible primaries for both parties makes this race filled with uncertainty.

5. Minnesota (incumbent: Republican Norm Coleman) - Coleman has seen his lead over Al Franken and Mike Ciresi shrink from 20+ percent to 5, which has to have the freshman Senator sweating.

6. Oregon (incumbent: Republican Gordon Smith) - If Sununu is Rick Santorum, Smith just may be Mike DeWine. It's much too early to tell, though.

7. Maine (incumbent: Republican Susan Collins) - This race has been very quiet, but the state's Democratic trend favors Tom Allen, assuming he can convince voters that he would more accurately represent them.

8. Louisiana (incumbent: Democrat Mary Landrieu) - The only Democrat in any serious trouble this cycle, Mary Landrieu had better hope for a decent downballot Democratic performance in the 2007 legislative elections. Expect Democrat-turned-Republican State Treasurer John N. Kennedy (no relation) to announce on, oh, November 7.

9. Nebraska (open Republican seat) - The potential Bob Kerrey candidacy is the only thing keeping this seat competitive. If he decides to continue playing schoolmaster, this one is as good as gone for the Democrats.

10. Idaho (open Republican seat) - Highly unlikely to flip, but if Larry Craig keeps embarrassing his party up through election day, Democratic candidate Larry LaRocco might have an outside shot. Plus I had to have an even number.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Top... Well, Eight Races

(Previous rankings here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=55933.msg1312599#msg1312599)

1. Virginia (open Republican seat) - Virginia '08 looks to be the Battle of the Former Governors: Warner v. Gilmore. The smart money's on Warner.

2. New Hampshire (incumbent: Republican John Sununu) - Sununu may be the Rick Santorum of 2008, with Jeanne Shaheen currently leading by a double-digit margin.

3. New Mexico (open Republican seat) [prev: 4] - Udall entering the race is a major coup for New Mexico Democrats. He's the favorite now.

4. Colorado (open Republican seat) [prev: 3] - Very slight lean to Udall on this one. At worst, he's tied with Schaffer. At best, he's up by a few points.

5. Louisiana (incumbent: Democrat Mary Landrieu) [prev: 8] - Louisiana Republicans didn't win either house of the state legislature, but they still made gains. Mary Landrieu is their only target in 2008 (Charlie Melancon will probably not get a serious challenge, after his 55-40 victory in '06). State Treasurer John Kennedy (no relation to Ted *or* Mark) is in, and is only down by 4 according to nonpartisan polling. If he doesn't screw up, he's got a good chance of winning this seat.

6. Minnesota (incumbent: Republican Norm Coleman) [prev: 5] - Depending on which polls you believe, Coleman is either tied or has a slight lead over Franken and Ciresi.

7. Oregon (incumbent: Republican Gordon Smith) [prev: 6] - Smith is down to a single-digit lead, which is not a good place for an incumbent going into 2008. Still, he's in better shape than Coleman or Sununu.

8. Maine (incumbent: Republican Susan Collins) [prev: 7] - Tom Allen is gaining no traction against Collins. It's a year off, but it's not promising considering Allen represents half of the state in Congress already.

OFF. Nebraska (open Republican seat) [prev: 9] - No Kerrey, no chance.

OFF. Idaho (open Republican seat) [prev: 10] - Who am I kidding?

Projected Pickups: 4 Dem (CO, NH, NM, VA), 1 Rep (LA).