2016 vs. 2012 state swings

[SingingAnalyst]

At this point, none of us know for sure who the D and R nominees will be, nor who the VP nominees will be, nor whether there will be any significant independent candidacies.

But it seems reasonable to predict at this point that the election will be Clinton v. Trump. Due to the polarized feelings most voters have toward these two candidates, any independent candidacy will have an uphill climb (in my opinion).

Will 2016 essentially be a copy of 2012, perhaps with FL flipping, and no other changes? Can we expect any state swings that are way out of line with the national norm?

[Crumpets]

If it's Clinton vs. Trump after an Obama vs. Romney election, Utah will swing hard to the Dems. Nowhere near enough to flip it, but probably at least 15 if not 20 points (in terms of margin of victory).

[SingingAnalyst]

If it's Clinton vs. Trump after an Obama vs. Romney election, Utah will swing hard to the Dems. Nowhere near enough to flip it, but probably at least 15 if not 20 points (in terms of margin of victory).

Did Trump say something about the LDS church? Might there be ripple effects in ID and WY?

[Crumpets]

If it's Clinton vs. Trump after an Obama vs. Romney election, Utah will swing hard to the Dems. Nowhere near enough to flip it, but probably at least 15 if not 20 points (in terms of margin of victory).

Did Trump say something about the LDS church? Might there be ripple effects in ID and WY?

It's not so much what Trump has said about the LDS Church, but what they've said about them. The LDS Church has made it clear that they are not getting behind Trump as a candidate, and as a result, Trump has continuously polled terribly in both general election matchups in the state (still winning, but usually with single digits and loads of undecideds). He gets third in most primary polls there, even while ahead everywhere else, and he still managed to lose Nevada's Mormon areas overwhelmingly even though he walked away in the rest of the state.

There are a couple explanations why, but these articles give a glimpse:
http://ldsmag.com/the-real-trouble-with-trump/
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865643612/Mormons-and-the-Trump-proposal.html?pg=all

Mostly it comes down to two things:
1) Trump is seen as not truly believing in the principle of freedom of religion, as evidenced by his "stop the Muslims" policies, and Mormons are concerned their way of life might be threatened as a result.
2) Trump is seen as an immoral person himself who promotes adultery, gambling, drinking, etc. A large reason that the Mormons have been so loyal to the Republicans over the years is specifically because the party is the one seen as more likely to denounce and quell these behaviors, rather then promote and indulge in them.

[SingingAnalyst]

If it's Clinton vs. Trump after an Obama vs. Romney election, Utah will swing hard to the Dems. Nowhere near enough to flip it, but probably at least 15 if not 20 points (in terms of margin of victory).

Did Trump say something about the LDS church? Might there be ripple effects in ID and WY?

It's not so much what Trump has said about the LDS Church, but what they've said about them. The LDC Church has made it clear that they are not getting behind Trump as a candidate, and as a result, Trump has continuously polled terribly in both general election matchups in the state (still winning, but usually with single digits and loads of undecideds). He gets third in most primary polls there, even while ahead everywhere else, and he still managed to lose Nevada's Mormon areas overwhelmingly even though he walked away in the rest of the state.

There are a couple explanations why, but these articles give a glimpse:
http://ldsmag.com/the-real-trouble-with-trump/
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865643612/Mormons-and-the-Trump-proposal.html?pg=all

Mostly it comes down to two things:
1) Trump is seen as not truly believing in the principle of freedom of religion, as evidenced by his "stop the Muslims" policies, and Mormons are concerned their way of life might be threatened as a result.
2) Trump is seen as an immoral person himself who promotes adultery, gambling, drinking, etc. A large reason that the Mormons have been so loyal to the Republicans over the years is specifically because the party is the one seen as more likely to denounce and quell these behaviors, rather then promote and indulge in them.

Interesting. So if ID-UT-WY vote less GOP and voters under 30 vote less Dem than in 2012 (which I believe will be the case), the electorate overall may be slightly less polarized than in 2012. That may be one good thing that comes out of the election.

[Xing]

Honestly, the battleground map will probably start out about where it was in 2012, though it could certainly change as the race goes on. I'm guessing NV will be seen as more of a Lean D state than a Toss-up, and PA will be seen as more competitive than WI.

[nclib]

Can anyone make a swing/trend map?

[/]

Can anyone make a swing/trend map?

My best guess of a trend map:

[Nyvin]

In all honesty the one and only swing state from 2012 I see trending Republican would be Iowa.   Although I also expect to see Hawaii become less Dem than Vermont.  

Of course this is just going off of what we know now.  

[Boston Bread]

My guess of a Clinton/Trump trend map:

Strongest D trend: UT
Strongest R trend: NJ (if Christie is VP)

[Xing]

We're talking about a trend relative to the PV, right?

Then this is plausible: