Can people stop using the term "flavor of the month" for Trump?

[The Mikado]

Trump took the lead in the polling average on July 9th and has shown no signs of surrendering it to anyone. It's now August 23rd. We're coming right up on two full months of Trump domination.

I seriously don't get the comparison of him to candidates like Cain last cycle, nobodies that the right rallied behind as an alternative to Romney. If anyone is that it's Carson (in the sense of an unknown who people rally behind who will likely fade as he is discovered). Everyone knows who Donald Trump is and that he's a monster...the people supporting for him are doing so with full knowledge that they're voting for a monster. Trump can't be destroyed in the style Cain was four years ago...Trump's 99% name recognition means he's a known quantity, warts and all.

I'm not necessarily saying Trump will get the nomination, but I think he has a good chance to, and I dare say a better chance than anyone else on that chart does.

EDIT For comparison:



Notice the big difference here? Mitt Romney barely ever went below 20% of the vote, only dipping to the upper teens in late August 2011. Romney was always the guy to beat, others were rising up to challenge him before dropping back down.

Look at the 2015 graph. Jeb Bush's average is the only one over 10%, and he's at 10%.

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

True, in 2012, they were all the anti-Romney. Jeb is too pathetic for anyone to be the anti-Jeb.

[Pyro]

It's true that Trump seems to be holding on longer than Cain or Newt, but it's too early to tell whether or not he'll drop off the radar by New Hampshire. We certainly do have an "inevitable" candidate (Jeb) and a ton of folks ready to be the next Herman Cain. We'll see what happens.

[The Mikado]

We certainly do have an "inevitable" candidate (Jeb)

Jeb's polling average at its highest (before Trump jumped in) was about 15%, and now is about 11%. Romney's polling average at the lowest he ever got was 17% (almost exactly at this point in the first week of September) and rarely dropped below 20%. I don't see how the situations are comparable at all.

If you look at the 2012 polling image, Jeb Bush is polling about as well now as Bachmann was at this point in 2011.

[mencken]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

Trump has thus far had 37 days at the top of the RCP Average, reaching his apex on the 19th day.

Perry reached his apex on the 21st day, and was on top of the RCP Average for 41 days.

Cain reached his apex on the 1st day, and was on top of the RCP Average for 22 days. I am not sure if it is even fair to put Cain in the same category as Perry, Gingrich, or Santorum, let alone Trump.

Gingrich Mk. 1 reached his apex on the 23rd day, and was on top of the RCP Average for 44 days.

Gingrich Mk. 2 and Santorum proved more ephemeral flavors of the month, but their time in the spotlight was expedited by the primary calendar.

There are a few things to consider when evaluating Trump's success compared to the aformentioned flavors of the month:

• The 2012 phenomenon was itself bizarre and historically unprecedented; it would not be unusual for Trump to chart a course more similar to Huckabee or Buchanan.
•  Romney held a baseline level of support of ~20-25% during each boomlet; Trump's time as the frontrunner would have already passed if Bush were posting Romneyesque primary numbers rather than in the ~10% range.
•  During Perry's "fall" phase, we had ten national polls recognized by RCP; during Newt's "fall" phase we had five national polls recognized by RCP. In the time since Trump's apex, we have had only three polls recognized by RCP.
•   Cain, the candidate who emerged in the wake of Perry's fall, posted 8.2% in the RCP Average at this point in his boomlet; Santorum, who won the Iowa caucus just as Gingrich fell the first time, posted 3.8%. Carson and Fiorina, who both emerged from the debate with significant momentum, are already posting numbers better than these.

[Mehmentum]

We certainly do have an "inevitable" candidate (Jeb)

Jeb's polling average at its highest (before Trump jumped in) was about 15%, and now is about 11%. Romney's polling average at the lowest he ever got was 17% (almost exactly at this point in the first week of September) and rarely dropped below 20%. I don't see how the situations are comparable at all.

If you look at the 2012 polling image, Jeb Bush is polling about as well now as Bachmann was at this point in 2011.

It goes beyond polling.  Look at endorsements.  Back in 2012, Romney had a virtually unchallenged lead in the 'invisible primary'.  Most Republican office holders aren't endorsing anybody this year.

[Blue3]

Some people are still calling him the "flavor of the month"... despite it almost being Halloween now. Ridiculous.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump is the frontrunner.

[DS0816]

The Mikado,

Most of the Republican United States presidential candidates are running because they have nothing to lose by running.

Just look at former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee!

Who the hell, with anything of a brain, in this country actually gives a *s* about Mike Huckabee other than Mike Huckabee?

Take a look at this Republican roster … and cast aside all of them but three. It's easy.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

Indeed, Trump is the frontrunner.  What is even more telling is that in second place is BEN CARSON?!?!?!?!?  (I still can't wrap my mind around that totally.)

What does it say that after this long into the pre-primary campaign, Donald Trump is still the frontrunner, and a pretty consistent frontrunner, and Ben Carson is in 2nd place?  What is the pathway for Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush to the nomination?  Rubio's no outsider, and people know it.

It's early, but the dynamics of the current race are hardening, and the facts and outside events are not affecting this.  Donald Trump is at around 25% or so; this isn't changing.  Ben Carson is moving up on him.  If you add Ted Cruz and Carly Fiorina to the mix, you have well, well over 50% total between these four (4) candidates.  

In truth, I can see the GOP Establishment making a deal with Ted Cruz.  He's an outsider and they hate him, but he is also a sitting US Senator.  And he's not a dullard; however extreme his views may be to some, he doesn't make stupid gaffes like Lincoln Chafee.  If this doesn't happen, the bulk of the GOP primary voters are going to be stuck with a candidate they really don't like.  I have underestimated the desire for a COMPLETE outsider to date, but it's a real and ongoing condition for the GOP.  They WANT someone "out there" and electability isn't a real issue.  

[Mehmentum]

Its really interesting that before Trump surged, the GOP race was pretty conventional.  Bush, Walker and Rubio were top 3 in polling in early summer.  Cruz and Carson were around, but neither really made an impact.

Yet somehow Trump awakened a desire within the Republican electorate for an outsider.  Trump's surge has changed the dynamics of this race.  I don't think that Carson would have done nearly as well as he had if Trump hadn't entered the race.  The same is undoubtedly true for Fiorina. 

[heatmaster]

How about flavor of the quarter?😉

[eric82oslo]

How about flavor of the quarter?

I was thinking more along the line of flavour of the year as I know for sure that he won't be flavour of 2016.

[Fuzzy Bear Loves Christian Missionaries]

How about flavor of the quarter?

I was thinking more along the line of flavour of the year as I know for sure that he won't be flavour of 2016.

There's no reason to believe that Trump will fade in 2016.  He may, but there's no real reason out there now to point to in order to support this assertion.