MA-05 will fall before MA-06. While on paper they look similar at the national level, ie. they went for Kerry and Obama by near identical margins, the local dynamics are very different.
While you have to give him credit for throwing his all into this campaign Bill Hudak has been making waves and not good ones. He seems to be an undecided birther, and the Globe has zeroed in on him because Charlie Baker has attended a lot of his events, and this gives them a chance to demand Baker and the rest of the party distance themselves from Hudak. Not to mention he had an Obama=Osama yard sign last year, and has been trying to play the Mosque card in a district where the population is either latte liberals or immigrants.
http://blogs.wickedlocal.com/shorelines/2010/08/16/hudak-hudak-everywhere-for-better-or-worse/Furthermore Tierney is probably the most popular of Massachusetts congressman, has a good deal of money and crossover support.
MA-05 is a different matter. Tsongas has never been popular, most of the suburbs here resemble those in Brown's district, there is a large working-class white population in the cities which doesn't like Obama. Oh, and there is also a black man on the top of the ticket who badly underperformed here in 2006. Did I mention the leading GOP candidates speaks fluent Spanish and Tsongas and Patrick are both loathed by the Democratic machine in the area that normally brings out Hispanics?
Not necessarily saying MA-06 should be moved off since some of the dynamics are there, but I would be shocked if Tierney won by less than 63%. Tsongas on the other hand might lose, though its doubtful. So it really depends what the list is for.
