Better for Dems if it passes. People losing insurance would be the "Ebola/ISIS" of 2018, along with whatever disaster we find ourselves in at the time
Yes, this bill would be without a doubt a disaster for Republicans in 2018
and 2020. Americans don't like people monkeying with their health insurance, and look what happened when Democrats fought to get
more people insured? Imagine what happens when over a year from now, millions of people have either lost their insurance or seen premiums go up - they won't be happy, and their friends and family will probably be off-put as well. All of this while seeing on the news that even more people will be expected to lose insurance / Medicaid support over the following years.
It would be even worse if Democrats can find in themselves a rare moment of messaging success. The entire reason these millions of people would lose insurance is basically so Republicans can take the money and instead give it to the wealthy. It's hardly exaggerating either - that is pretty much what is going on here. That alone compounds the issue for Republicans.
Let's be real here - the conservative base wanting PPACA repeal does not necessarily mean they want AHCA, either. Consider also that it doesn't require demoralizing the
entire GOP base, it just takes pissing off a sizable number of Indies and sapping the enthusiasm from more moderate Republicans to cause a wave. This bill can absolutely do that.
If you ask me, the successful implementation of this bill could have extremely negative long-term repercussions for Republicans.