Yes, Lucio is trash and a literal DINO, but he is from Brownsville and even despite the RGV swing represents a seat that still probably went for Biden by double digits, he would be DOA, if he party switched and ran for re-election, so if he does actually switch, I'd expect him to retire, though another factor here is that he has a son, who is more of a mainstream Dem, who is in the Texas House and may succeed him, him becoming a Republican, would put his son in a particularly awkward position of either facing allegations of not being a real Democrat or running against his own father, if he runs for re-election.
One word: Redistricting
Not saying he couldn't still lose but if he actually switched, definitely expect a shore up.
