I watched electoralvote.com
electoralvote.com was run by a lefty who used Zogby Interactive junk.
You should have read this site more, we laughed at that crap.
There weren't many early polls until September from New Mexico, except from ARG and Zogby Interactive (both crap). That probably shaped everyone's idea of where New Mexico was wrongly.
electoral-vote.com was good at first, but became flawed when he failed to update it and started missing polls. This caused the site to be pro-Kerry for a while, because he started missing polls when Bush started doing well (I believe this was because of some personal reason that caused updates to be difficult.) Also, it is simply flawed to use the last poll in a state only.
I visited that site every day and it was with only 2 or 3 exceptions updated every day by 8am EST. From what I could tell there were very few if any missed polls. His system for calling states was flawed. He tried fixing it by doing some kind of weird average and that made it worse so he went back to using just the very last poll which he had some complex and flawed rules for figuring that out too. It wasn't about his real life making updates difficult, it was the methodology. From the guy's postings I think does want to work out a better method and I hope he'll be back in 2008.
