Ukraine Crisis

[Frodo]

Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.

[Frodo]

Seems Russia will at least officially annex Crimea.  What it has in store for the rest of the Russian-speaking half of Ukraine, I can only speculate.  My guess is Russia will split Ukraine in half, with the Russian-speaking portion being given a sort of Potemkin 'independence' as a client state, but in reality being annexed by Russia in all but name, the rest of the world be damned.

Not sure if this is the best strategy for Russia or what Putin have in mind.  If I were Putin I would want to make sure the pro-Russian vote in Ukraine is as significant as possible coupled with de facto economic domination of Russia over Ukraine (able to control credit, gas prices and food import levels) and in turn create a Ukrainian government that takes order from Moscow.  With all the cards Putin holds he has a significant chance of pulling this off.  Annexing the pro-Russian part of Ukraine actually weakens Moscow's hold on the rest of Ukraine and ensure that the rump Ukraine becomes a perpetual enemy of Russia.

So what you're saying is Putin is likely to have learned his lesson from the Georgia incident (I am not about to call it a 'war') in 2008, and is unlikely to be following much the same script here that he did there?  

[Frodo]

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

All the West can do is advocate democracy, liberal values, and the rule of law, and push back against Putin whenever possible.  There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die.  His world-view was indelibly shaped by the Cold War.  So long as he lives and remains in power, any state on Russia's periphery -including Ukraine- not already a member of NATO and/or the EU will never have a truly liberal democratic future without interference from a Russia imbued with dreams of imperial restoration.

[Frodo]

I don't know what Western World could or should do if they want to keep "normal" relations with Russia in the near future.

There is not much else we can do, besides waiting for Vladimir Putin to die.

Could West speed up that process?

If you are you advocating an assassination, I would advise against it.  

Considering the other (viable) alternatives at this point in time in Russia, Putin is the only game we have in town.  

[Frodo]

And even then (as we saw in Georgia), NATO membership is not a guarantee of immunity.      

What does NATO have to do with Georgia?

Sorry, I confused Georgia's 2008 vote to join NATO with actual NATO membership.  

[Frodo]

To no one's surprise, Russia has China's backing in its face-down with the West over Ukraine.

Perhaps China has similar designs on its neighbors as it seeks to reclaim the boundaries once held by the Qing Dynasty at its territorial zenith:



Possibly a price for its support? 

[Frodo]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

[Frodo]

Can Russia be expelled from the World Trade Organization?  

The Germans don't want Russia expelled from the G7+1, so I highly doubt WTO would be on anyone's list. Merkel and (unintentionally) Cameron have already made it clear the toughest economic options are out.

Then it's no wonder Putin is being so bold -for all of President Obama's rhetorical toughness, it is clear Putin won't suffer any real consequences for his aggression. 

[Frodo]

The Kremlin is signaling they are prepared to bite the bullet if that's what it takes to annex Crimea.

[Frodo]

U.S. voters agree Putin won’t stop at Crimea, but they’re unsure what to do

BY LESLEY CLARK
McClatchy Washington Bureau
April 14, 2014

WASHINGTON — With tensions rising over Russia’s intervention in Ukraine, a new McClatchy-Marist Poll finds Americans ambivalent over how deeply the United States should be involved in the situation.

American voters largely support only squeezing Russia economically and politically, even as they display strong distrust of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

They give President Barack Obama mixed reviews for his handling of Russia’s move to lop off Ukraine’s Crimea region, but they offer no clear view of how the U.S. should respond to the crisis.

“Issues very often have huge partisan polarization and some clear marching orders, but this doesn’t have that,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion in New York.
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Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/04/14/224397/us-voters-agree-putin-wont-stop.html#storylink=cpy

[Frodo]

US troops are being deployed to Poland.

Also, Russia's economy was apparently already deteriorating even before sanctions were imposed. 

[Frodo]

The central authorities in Kiev have acknowledged that Russia and its minions have won eastern Ukraine.

So Russia has annexed Crimea, and effectively has a friendly puppet regime in eastern Ukraine. 

[Frodo]

There is talk about Putin moving on to Kazakhstan once he is finished subjugating Ukraine.   

[Frodo]

Do bear in mind that Putin also wants the Baikonur Cosmodrome back, along with bringing the Russian population in Kazakhstan back into the fold.