4) Ollanta Humala, nut ultra-nationalist candidate, and Lourdes Flores, moderate conservative. Humala is currently leading, but I guess (I hope) he canīt get 50% in a runoff against Flores. Rumours say Humala is backed financially by Hugo Chavez, and for what Iīve read, Chavez looks pretty moderate compared to Humala... Like in Evo Moralesīcase, Humala is exploiting an ethnic cleavage to grow in the polls (yes, Toledo was a "cholo" too, but heīd studied in Harvard, he wasnīt a "true" member of the indigenous community), but Moralesīappeal wasnīt based in a nationalist (which basically means anti-Chile) rethoric. And Humala, like Chavez, used to be a member of the military. He once even said he would enter Chile with tanks, were it necesssary. So, itīs not very promising for the region if he wins... Adding a second nut to Chavez (Morales will be much more moderate and sensible than everbody expected, I think) is certainly not good news.
Basically agree. I think the Humala clone in Bolivia may well be Felipe Quispe, who could still come out against Morales from the nut-left with roadblocks, etc.
The best hope South America has right now is the strength of "Southern Cone" democratic Leftist governments- Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, and Chile. They can hopefully exert a moderating influence on the more troubled Andean governments that may share their ideology, but not their republican methods. Once the Left dominates the continent, it will become clear that the real struggle in the Andean nations today is not between Left and Right, but between Democracy and Autocracy. And then, I think, autocracy loses, not least because it blocks plans for South America integration.
