See this post here.
I think it comes down to looking at Trump's favorable ratings among white women and the anticipated percent of the electorate Latinos are expected to be.
In general, I'd predict Clinton by anywhere from 2-12%.
I think she improves among white women and the Trump disaster boosts Latino turnout from 8% in 2012 to around 13-14% of the electorate in 2016. If both were to happen the ensuing wipe out would probably the biggest victory by any Presidential contender since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Most crucially, I think the election comes down to turnout and organization. Trump just put together his finance committee yesterday - which tells you all that you need to know about the Trump campaign's organization. Coupled with the dependence on RNC dollars and his terrible favorability ratings, Trump is going to be in a steep hole. He needs to contribute, minimum, right now, $200 million or so to his campaign just to get an organization running and groups ready in the battleground states.
Trump needs to turn around the election polling by mid August. If he's not competitive by September 1, he's toast.
Well, Hillary's unfavorable ratings aren't much better.
I think TRUMP will win because his message fits the spirit of the day: Enough with establishment politics.
Hillary Clinton if you believe the polls now . BUT, the contrast of ultimate establishment figure vs ultimate outsider will put the middle class and other Americans who complain of being soldout by Washington in the hot seat. Trump has a chance for this reason.
Poll
