Austrian Presidential Election (RUNOFF) - Official Prediction Thread

[Bojicat]

Hofer's consolidating his hold in the country-side. He's gained in stature, not lost it, since mid-April. He hasn't committed any gaffes. Popular reaction to his debate performances (in particular, the one last Sunday) has been very positive. He comes across as bright, energetic and very likable. VDB, however, comes across as soporific, disdainful, unfriendly, and elitist.  Without a personality one can latch on to, you lift the man away and all you've got is a place to go if you dislike Hofer. That's not enough to win on. VDB's hold on a couple of big cities (Vienna, Graz, et al.)and the formerly Griss-dominated suburbs is tenuous. Outside of these small, shrinking specks of green, however, he's surrounded by a sea of blue. I hear nothing positive about VDB among the people, except that, with some, he'll 'save us' from Hofer. That's just not a winning strategy.

As far as VDB is concerned, the proverb goes: The situation is hopeless, but not serious.

I see a Hofer landslide on May 22

Hofer: 61%
VDB:   39%

[Bojicat]

If there is record turn-out, it'll be almost entirely due to an intense enthusiasm for Hofer, not for VDB. In fact, the idea of a horde of VDB enthusiasts rushing to the polls to vote on May 22 would make a typical Austrian laugh out loud. The fellow generates as much enthusiasm as a cauliflower. As I said earlier, the only hope for a sudden 'surge' of support for VDB would be intense anti-Hofer feelings, and that's not happening. Hofer has actually built up, built up substantially, his likability. You'd be dreaming if you thought voting enthusiasm will narrow the gap between Hofer and VDB. Enthusiasm will actually WIDEN the gap in Hofer's favour.

Whether you like it or not, a Hofer landslide is in the works.

[Bojicat]

If anything, turnout will go down now because centrist voters from Griss, SPÖ and ÖVP have no incentive anymore to vote for Hofer or VdB after their crappy debate performance.

Also, invalid ballots will spike. I guess more than 5% will invalidate their ballot ...

If you are referring the crappy debate performances of Griss, Hundstorfer and Khol a couple of month's ago, you are surely correct. Bear in mind also that so far, VDB has had intensely crappy debate performances versus Hofer as well, shocking no one, really, but the effect has been to cement negative views of VDB, and augment (to probably even the FPÖ's surprise) Hofer's image. Should turnout actually go down on election day, as you suspect, that would also benefit Hofer. Let's not forget that he had 1,499,971 votes versus VDB's 913,218, and there was a 14.2 point gap between Hofer's 35.1% and VDB's 21.3%. Should turnout be moderate or miserable (i.e. potential VDB voters staying home and/or lack of enthusiasm for VDB vs. solid voter devotion and support from the Hoferites) I don't see how on Earth VDB could make up the difference. It would, in fact, wind up a slaughter for VDB.

[Bojicat]

I have now updated my prediction to a 53-47 Van der Bellen win.

That's quite a dramatic turn-around from your earlier predictions, Tender. What changed your mind? Have new polls come out? I haven't seen any of substance. The last I saw showed the FPÖ gaining a large number of seats, mostly at the expense of the SPÖ and ÖVP. The Greens, unchanged.

[Bojicat]

I have now updated my prediction to a 53-47 Van der Bellen win.

That's quite a dramatic turn-around from your earlier predictions, Tender. What changed your mind? Have new polls come out? I haven't seen any of substance. The last I saw showed the FPÖ gaining a large number of seats, mostly at the expense of the SPÖ and ÖVP. The Greens, unchanged.

Just a feeling that it will end like the French regional elections after all ... voters from Griss/SPÖ/ÖVP and additional non-voters in the cities coming around for VdB.

But is the atmosphere in Austria in the run-up to the May 22 elections equal to that in France ahead of their December 2015 regional elections, especially as Europe today is facing an unusually dramatic influx of refugees from the Middle East, South Asia and Africa this year?

Also, note that the regional voting system in France allowed for parties to 'gang up' against one particular party (i.e., LePen's) or play 'rotation games' (whichever party can beat the National Front better in one region gets to tackle it alone). That's not happening in Austria.

Plus, you're adding the right-of center ÖVP to your list of voters coming around for VdB and, more importantly, you are assuming that these voters are enthusiastic about going out and voting for this very uninspiring, very poor candidate, by any account.

You may be right for one reason in my view, the one reason that makes me pause too: an unusually high level of anti-Hoferism driving the electorate.  The thing is, it's just not there. It's a phantom, I see and hear nothing so far.

[Bojicat]

I still think it's going to be a Hofer landslide. The momentum is all his and press headlines seem to expect it "Austria poised to elect far-Right president" from the Telegraph, "Polls suggesting a Norbert Hofer Victory" from Euronews, and then you have indications of what's looming over the horizon, such as this headline from The Guardian released just a moment ago: "Fear of migrants and loathing of elites drive a small Austrian town to far right" or this headline from today's New York Times: "Migrant Crimes Add Volatile Element to Austria’s Election". It goes on.

So I expect

61% Hofer
39% VdB

[Bojicat]

Polls close in 25 minutes.

If anyone wants to post a last-minute prediction, do it now ...

How is it looking from your end? It's 50/50 now per derStandard.

[Bojicat]

97% of the vote in and it's still 50/50.

[Bojicat]

Now with just a handful of suburbs left, three in Vienna, the tally shows Hofer 50.23%, VdB at 49.77%. Hard to tell whether the results of these remaining suburbs will make the difference for VdB. Then we have about 900,000 mail-in votes coming Monday (that figure is an estimate, for sure).

[Bojicat]

All the Vienna suburbs are in and Hofer still ahead. The difference will come tomorrow with the counting of the mail-in votes.

[Bojicat]

The press and the final tally present a Hofer victory for now, by 3.8%. Not sure whether the absentee ballots counted on Monday will make a difference. Do you have any estimates, Tender?

There's a feeling that a majority of the absentee ballot could go to VdB (total guesswork at this point). But will that overcome Hofer's 3.8% lead?