The Aftershock: The Jobs Report on Friday (user search)
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  The Aftershock: The Jobs Report on Friday (search mode)
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Author Topic: The Aftershock: The Jobs Report on Friday  (Read 1004 times)
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,134
United States


« on: October 04, 2012, 02:02:33 AM »

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Given that the 'Bush recession' is still ongoing, this is meaningless. Also, why then is workforce participation at a 30 year low?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2012, 02:11:13 AM »

Beet:

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I presume you mean this?

Workforce participation for those 55+ has actually increased since 2008. The bulk of the decline is hitting young people from 25-45, those who've already finished their education. Men, moreso than women.

I agree that the longterm secular decline will eventually kick in, but that's not what we are seeing here. It's not the folks retiring that are driving down workforce participation - it's the young people that are not able to find work.

This, combined with the upcoming secular decline - is a disaster.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2012, 02:12:43 AM »

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And who was president then?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2012, 02:23:16 AM »

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That's what happens when you handwave arguments you don't like away. Smiley

That 55+ is increasing in workforce participation blows your argument out of the water. The long-term formerly unemployed, out of the workforce population (around 5 percent or so), aren't likely to ever get back in.

I'm sure 5 percent doesn't sound like much to you - but it's huge. Getting that 5 percent working was a major part as to why the boom of the 80s and 90s happened. We're back to the 70s and only about 2 or 3 percent over 1950. If we go back another 5 or so, we'll be back to where things were after the second world war.

It's possible, and if you see it happen, we could even see less than half of the population engaged in productive work. Which is going to fuel the oncoming deflationary depression that's just started.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2012, 02:54:04 AM »

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Having the core of your future workforce gutted and out of the market is a bad thing. You're welcome to spin and argue that it's not.

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True, but those pulling the cart have to see the fruits of their labour. We should have more people pulling the cart, not fewer.

As for the decline for men 25-45, it's got to be addressed. It's sort of the elephant in the back corner that nobody talks about. Eventually someones going to stand up and say, "hey, we've got a problem here".

Having lots of men unemployed, out of the job market without future prospects - isn't a good sign. What happens if all those men decide to get together and start taking what they want?
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2012, 03:21:24 AM »

Beet, if they are home because they want to be home, that's one thing. But I don't believe that's what's happening. What I see happening is the men simply not getting hired for jobs. I work with a fair amount of street people, and it's really criminal what's happening to them. These are able-bodied young men that could be put to useful work and put their hands and minds to productive enterprises, that are being discarded like worthless refuse.

This bothers me.

I myself have a disability and have had a tough last four years (thanks Obama!), and am really getting tired of it. There's lots of stuff I can do and if I'm having difficulty, I hate to think of the folks with fewer qualifications.
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