Ukraine 2014

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So it's happening it looks like. Who's running?

[Vega]

I imagine Yulia Tymoshenko.

I hope she wins, too.

[RogueBeaver]

Klitschko announced last year. Tymoshenko said today she intends to run. Sergei Titipko, a senior POR MP, may run if the party nominates someone. Doubtful anyone else cracks double digits in the jungle.

[Maez]

Would Tymoshenko be favored in such an election?

[Vega]

Would Tymoshenko be favored in such an election?

I would imagine she would be.

[RogueBeaver]

The last polls showed a close race between Tymoshenko and Klitschko for a runoff slot with Yanukovych. Question is whether POR runs a candidate and if not, where their support goes.

[Third Party]

Southeastern and southwestern Ukraine will secede and form a separate country that will join the Customs Union. Half of my ancestors came from that part of what is now the Ukraine and you guys will never see it in the EU, it's very pro-Russia there. I think they'll select a stronger leader than Yanukovych, probably a national unity candidate backed by both the Party of Regions and the Communist Party. Russian military intervention will not be necessary unless the new Kiev regime tries something foolish.

[Famous Mortimer]

I imagine Yulia Tymoshenko.

I hope she wins, too.

I like Tymoshenko so I hope she doesn't win.

Whoever becomes the next president is going to have to implement EU mandated austerity and will be extremely unpopular very quickly.

[swl]

I watched Ioulia Tymochenko's speech yesterday and it was pretty bad. She only seems animated by a desire for revenge, and that's not what Ukraine needs now...
Besides a lot of people consider her as being part of the old corrupted political class.

[Famous Mortimer]

For what it's worth, Sergei Titipko was one of the people who defected from the POR and voted for impeachment.

[RogueBeaver]

For what it's worth, Sergei Titipko was one of the people who defected from the POR and voted for impeachment.

Precisely why POR would want to nominate him.

[Famous Mortimer]

For what it's worth, Sergei Titipko was one of the people who defected from the POR and voted for impeachment.

Precisely why POR would want to nominate him.

He may not want the POR's nomination though.

Still, he is absolutely the best suited to take the votes of current/former Yanukovych supporters.

[Famous Mortimer]

My take on the likely candidates at this point:

Vitali Klitschko (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reform): The most popular opposition leader. Viewed as being clean. Favored to win. His one drawback is his unabashed economic liberalism, although the voters probably won't realize this until after the election. If and when he does win, he will probably become extremely unpopular extremely quickly, just like with Yushchenko, because he will have to implement EU mandated austerity.

Yulia Tymoshenko (All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland"): Viewed as a corrupt by many in the opposition. What hurts her even more than that though was the sweet gas deal she gave Russia. The same gas deal, however, might allow to her gain significant support in the East, although the current political climate won't allow her to campaign that way. I still say there's a good chance she becomes explicitly pro-Russian once Klitschko inevitably becomes unpopular. This is also a small chance she actually wins this election due to her prison cred.

Serhiy Tihipko (Independent, ex-Party of Regions, ex-Labor Ukraine): Leftist, pro-Russian politician. Came in third with 10% in the last presidential election. His platform was basically "I'm like Yanukovych but I never poisoned anyone." He later joined the Party of Regions but quit shortly before Yanukovych fled and voted for impeachment. He would be a very strong contender in most elections but I doubt an Easterner is going to win this time. Although if an Easterner was to win, it would be him.

Petro Symonenko (Communist Party of Ukraine): Generic pro-Russian Communist. Obviously he won't win but he stands to gain a lot of votes if the pro-Russian side is unorganized. He did, after all, make it to the run-off in the 1999 presidential election. He also stands to gain a lot of protest votes from people who realize the implications of being forced to take IMF loans, although that's not a huge number of people yet.

Oleh Tyahnybok (All-Ukrainian Union "Freedom"): No chance of winning but as leader of one of the three official opposition parties he will have an impact. There's a chance he forgoes running and backs a joint opposition candidate as he is desperate to be seen as mainstream. I doubt Klitschko and Tymoshenko could agree between each other though. In the event of the run-off, Tyahnybok seems to personally favor Tymoshenko but he is ideologically closer to Klitschko.

Natalia Korolevska (Forward Ukraine previously known as the Ukrainian Social Democratic Party): Probably not going to matter but might become a serious candidate in the East if Tihipko doesn't run. Korolevska was a centre-left member of the Tymoshenko bloc who left to support the Yanukovych government. She was previously considered a rising star but suffered when her party just barely missed getting into parliament. Despite not having any seats, she was appointed Minister of Welfare, a position she held right up until the revolution (still holds?)

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, Ioffe nails why Tymoshenko shouldn't be President. Other wildcards are Poroshenko (who should probably get a senior economic post IMO) and Lutsenko.

[Famous Mortimer]

The criticism of how she got her money in the 90s is valid.

I keep seeing that "she's responsible for the failure of the Orange Revolution" which is just BS though.

That was all on Yushchenko. His right-wing economic policies made him unpopular with 90% of the country while Tymoshenko, who opposed further privatization, remained popular with at least 40% of the country. Yushchenko tried to prevent her from becoming PM because he was more popular than him and because she opposed his economic plans. His dragging his feet on giving her the post she won allowed the Party of Regions time to bribe the Socialists in joining their coalition. If he had just appointed her from the start that never would have happened.

[Famous Mortimer]

Basically, Tymoshenko did some bad stuff but it was all stuff that was well known before the Orange Revolution.

[Nhoj]

The newly appointed interim president Oleksandr Turchynov looks like he may run instead of Tymoshenko, he hails from her hometown of Dnipropetrovsk.

[Famous Mortimer]

The newly appointed interim president Oleksandr Turchynov looks like he may run instead of Tymoshenko, he hails from her hometown of Dnipropetrovsk.

Where are you seeing that reported?

[Nhoj]

The newly appointed interim president Oleksandr Turchynov looks like he may run instead of Tymoshenko, he hails from her hometown of Dnipropetrovsk.

Where are you seeing that reported?

disregard that.
 Tymoshenko also seems somewhat dismissive of the idea of herself running. =

[RogueBeaver]

BBC were talking about Klitschko, not Turchynov.

[Nhoj]

BBC were talking about Klitschko, not Turchynov.

ah right I somehow missed the line between "Mr Turchynov, a close associate of Ms Tymoshenko, described forming a unity government as a "priority task".  and that part regardless Tymoshenko didnt really indicate a run.

[Famous Mortimer]

She said she didn't want to be interim PM. That's different than ruling out a run as a full term, totally empowered head of state or government.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Would Tymoshenko be favored in such an election?

She wasn't received very warmly at the Maidan.

[RogueBeaver]

The ex-governor of Kharkiv Mikhail Dobnin has declared.

[RogueBeaver]

Tymoshenko will not run for President or PM - local media.