MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[ApatheticAustrian]

i think if the dems lose today and in GA, the major lesson is:

the country is fed-up with trump but the hardcore base is real and the trump PLUS gop advantage is still real and reps still got usually better candidates than many dems.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is definitely open to Democrats in state and federal offices under the right circumstances. Have you even seen a chart of MT's political party power?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Montana

Look how blue that is. The legislature is generally reliably Republican but state executive and federal offices have been as Democratic as Republican, and if you look at the Senate seats, Democrats have actually controlled those far longer than Republicans for the past century.

You could be right that maybe Quist specifically was never going to win, but MT is not a dead-end for Democrats.

Same reply as to wulfric. I agree that MT was open to Democrats pre 2015, and especially pre 2009, but it's changed. Bullock was lucky to squeak by as an incumbent. I expect the next several years to be very bad for MT Democrats.

This is all subjective, but I'm going to say that this drastically misperceives the political ground in Montana. For an anecdotal example from my phonebanking last night, I talked to a (very friendly) Alex Jones devotee and Trump lover who was gonna go out and vote for Quist because the MT GOP (and national GOP) are just dead wrong on public lands. Local issues of power and inequality help give the Democratic party life here.  

[The_Doctor]

My big question, what was the size of the early vote lead for Quist or Gianaforte? It seems both sides assumed Quist was doing very well in the early voting. Why do we think Gianaforte wins? He may still, but the reports I'm hearing are conflicting.

[DrScholl]

Why is anyone arguing with Beet? After that big switching to Republican post and then switching back to Democratic not long after, it's obvious that Beet is attention seeking.

[Beet]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

...do you just talk to hear the sound of your own voice?

Very insightful comment. If you read the predictit comments, plus the $100k PF raised its clear this has only energized his supporters.

Edit: lol I'm not attention seeking, the forum doesn't understand how politics has changed in the last 2 years.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Cool it, the vote isn't even in and you're overreacting with a blazing hot take.

[kyc0705]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

...do you just talk to hear the sound of your own voice?

Very insightful comment. If you read the predictit comments, plus the $100k PF raised its clear this has only energized his supporters.

This is such a bad take I don't even know where to start.

Why is anyone arguing with Beet? After that big switching to Republican post and then switching back to Democratic not long after, it's obvious that Beet is attention seeking.

[The Other Castro]

My big question, what was the size of the early vote lead for Quist or Gianaforte? It seems both sides assumed Quist was doing very well in the early voting. Why do we think Gianaforte wins? He may still, but the reports I'm hearing are conflicting.

Because people don't really know that much but think they know everything.

[This account no longer in use.]

Poll someone did on PredictIt using Google Surveys. Assaultforte has a 61% unfavorable rating lol:

Seems like a blatant pushpoll to me.

[ApatheticAustrian]

guardian video with ben jacobs - recapping.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2017/may/25/guardian-ben-jacobs-body-slam-video-greg-gianforte?CMP=share_btn_tw

[RogueBeaver]

NYT has Bliss openly trashing GG but still kinda bearish on Quist.

[Kantakouzenos]

Has the New York Times results page been launched yet?  

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

people have been calling in asking if they could change their vote - according to CNN, and only 1 voter out of 75 said they changed their vote from GG to RQ and Pubs tended to agree with GG and encouraged his behavior according to Kyung Lah

And we're supposed to have sympathy for these people when they lose their healthcare.  What a world.

[Hydera]

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/867849890919055360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2Fyznzjfyy2rm2%2FLiveUpdate_56348d5c-41a2-11e7-9e24-0ec220880c66%2F0

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Translation: A Republican can bodyslam me and i'll still vote for him because of the R next to his name!!

[Comrade Funk]

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/867849890919055360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2Fyznzjfyy2rm2%2FLiveUpdate_56348d5c-41a2-11e7-9e24-0ec220880c66%2F0

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Translation: A Republican can bodyslam me and i'll still vote for him because of the R next to his name!!

Body slamming a reporter from a British newspaper is a big positive for anti-intellectuals. The consequences of a thirty year media bubble as well as a president who declares the media the 'enemy of the American people'.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/alexis_levinson/status/867849890919055360?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.redditmedia.com%2Fmediaembed%2Fliveupdate%2Fyznzjfyy2rm2%2FLiveUpdate_56348d5c-41a2-11e7-9e24-0ec220880c66%2F0

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Translation: A Republican can bodyslam me and i'll still vote for him because of the R next to his name!!

Actually her tweet she then reveals she was actually talking to Quist voters who were already not voting for GG

[Crumpets]

A swing doesn't have to come in the form of voters switching allegiance. I suspect the biggest effect will be greater Democratic enthusiasm and decreased Republican turnout.

[TheSaint250]

What time do polls close again in Montana?

[_]

What time do polls close again in Montana?

10 EST

[MT Treasurer]

What time do polls close again in Montana?

8 PM local time, so 10 PM EST.

[TheSaint250]

What time do polls close again in Montana?

8 PM local time, so 10 PM EST.

Ok, thanks.

[Angrie]

How do the absentee/mail ballots usually get counted in MT? Should we expect a big dump of all the absentees at the very beginning, and then a long wait while precinct results gradually filter in? If so, does it vary much by county?

[bilaps]

If Gianforte wins it, it will be big surprise, the guy just assaulted a reporter , I don't care if it's Montana or Alabama or somewhere even more red if it's possible, if he pulls it off that would show how much people just dispise the other side.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Quist was never going to win. MT went for Trump by 20 points. It's one of those states that still likes to pretend it's open minded but PF just destroyed to liberal New Jersey narrative by expressing his contempt for a liberal eastern professional. Expect him in the senate one day.

Montana is a swing state for non presidential elections. They've elected Tester, Bullock, Baucus, Schweitzer, etc. Trump's 20 point win is meaningless in terms of helpfulness to forecast this race.

All those people were first elected before the rise of right wing populism.

and before they all died in the fukushima nucleär ebola pandemic, isn't that right?

[136or142]

How do the absentee/mail ballots usually get counted in MT? Should we expect a big dump of all the absentees at the very beginning, and then a long wait while precinct results gradually filter in? If so, does it vary much by county?

They've contracted the counting of absentee ballots out to British Columbia. So, two weeks. (Just kidding)