UK Prediction Thread

[Harry Hayfield]

Overall Vote Share

Conservative: 36% (+3%)
Labour: 27% (-9%)
Liberal Democrat: 27% (+4%)
Other: 10% (+2%)


Seat Share (Non-NI)

Conservative: 310 (+100)
Labour: 209 (-140)
Liberal Democrat: 100 (+38)
Plaid Cymru: 3 (+1)
Scottish National Party: 8 (+2)
Other: 2 (n/c)

Vote Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 25%
SDLP: 16%
SF: 24%
TUV: 7%
UCU-NF: 12%
Alliance: 8%
Green: 3%
Other: 5%

Seat Share (Northern Ireland)

DUP: 8
SDLP: 3
SF: 5
UCU-NF: 1
Independent: 1
Other: 0

Resulting Post Election Government

Conservative minority government in coalition with DUP, UCUP and Independent Unionist getting Lib Dem support on a Queen's Speech which includes STV for local elections from 2012 onwards

Constituency giving largest vote share for each party

Conservative: Witney
Labour: Rhondda
Liberal Democrat: Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Constituency result in Buckingham

John Bercow (Speaker): 37,000
Nigel Farage (UKIP): 8,500
other: 4,500

Green vote share in Brighton Pavilion (& do they win the seat?)

25%, No

BNP vote share in Barking (& do they win the seat?)

16%, No

Closest Seat (w/ voting plurality for winning party)

Brighton Pavillion (Too close to call, but Lab / Con / Lib Dem / Green seperated by no less than 1%)