Leaning no but I think he might be the (or maybe one of 2) GOP Senate candidate(s) that goes against the national tide and wins their competitive Senate race. I expect all but at most two of the competitive Senate races to break to the Dems.
FTR my gut feeling right now is that Dems win in Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida, and Nevada, with Republicans winning in Arizona (It seems like McCain will win his primary which I expect will lead to a low single digit win for him in November though I certainly wouldn't be surprised if Ward upsets in the primary) and Ohio, though, in the case of the latter, I also have a feeling that there's a good chance that, while Portman will have consistent leads in the polls in the final stretch of the campaign, Strickland rides the national tide and wins by less than 2% with a plurality on election night, in a major surprise to election observers.
I think the Dems will lose NC and pickup AZ (even though Ward will get destroyed in the primary) and at this point I don't think Strickland will win (3-6 point loss, I think), but other than that I agree with the caveat that things could easily change later in the cycle.
I suspect Rubio narrowly loses, but also wouldn't be surprised if he hangs on by the skin of his teeth.
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