New poll hype thread

[Dr. Arch]

Also, PPP might be hinting that Cooper is beating McCrory by at least 4 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/778405124737675264

The thing about happiness scale is that they're usually relative.

Sometimes, they're very literal. So maybe it's Clinton +4 or +1 or a Tie???

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Also, PPP might be hinting that Cooper is beating McCrory by at least 4 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/778405124737675264

The thing about happiness scale is that they're usually relative.

Sometimes, they're very literal. So maybe it's Clinton +4 or +1 or a Tie???

True, long-story short - they're ****-teases.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Cooper +4
Trump +2
Burr +4

[Gass3268]

New NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll at 5pm.

Fox is also releasing state polls in Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio at 6pm.

[Fusionmunster]

So many polls today.

[Dr. Arch]

Looking forward to them.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

NBC/WSJ Nat'l: C+2

FOX:
NC: T+1
OH: T+2
NV: C+1

[Gass3268]

Monmouth is also doing New Hampshire, that should be out soon, they usually drop theirs around 1pm.

[KingSweden]

NBC/WSJ Nat'l: C+2

FOX:
NC: T+1
OH: T+2
NV: C+1

I'd say these are pretty much my predictions too

[elcorazon]

Nat'l : C +3
NC: tied
Ohio: T +3
NV: C+3

[Dr. Arch]

National: C+3
NC: C+1
OH: Tied
NV: C+3

[dspNY]

New NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll at 5pm.

Fox is also releasing state polls in Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio at 6pm.

Interesting issue breakdown from the NBC/WSJ poll re: concerns voters have about the candidates

Trump's comments and language about women, immigrants and Muslims: 69%
Trump not having the temperament to be commander in chief: 66%
Clinton's email server: 64%
Clinton's foreign policy judgment in the Middle East: 62%
Trump's Putin praise: 59%
Trump not releasing his taxes: 52%
Clinton's deplorables comment: 45%
Clinton's heath: 44%

Based on that issue breakdown I would guess Clinton +5 LV, Clinton +7 RV

As for the Fox state polls, I don't think Clinton will lead any of them. My best guesses:

Nevada: Tie
North Carolina: Trump +3
Ohio: Trump +5 (to keep the Clinton is doomed in the rust belt narrative going).

If Clinton does better I will be pleasantly surprised

[Wiz in Wis]

New NBC/Wall Street Journal National Poll at 5pm.

Fox is also releasing state polls in Nevada, North Carolina, and Ohio at 6pm.

Interesting issue breakdown from the NBC/WSJ poll re: concerns voters have about the candidates

Trump's comments and language about women, immigrants and Muslims: 69%
Trump not having the temperament to be commander in chief: 66%
Clinton's email server: 64%
Clinton's foreign policy judgment in the Middle East: 62%
Trump's Putin praise: 59%
Trump not releasing his taxes: 52%
Clinton's deplorables comment: 45%
Clinton's heath: 44%

Based on that issue breakdown I would guess Clinton +5 LV, Clinton +7 RV

As for the Fox state polls, I don't think Clinton will lead any of them. My best guesses:

Nevada: Tie
North Carolina: Trump +3
Ohio: Trump +5 (to keep the Clinton is doomed in the rust belt narrative going).

If Clinton does better I will be pleasantly surprised

To be fair, Fox has had a slight Clinton lean this cycle. I think she leads in NV, ties in NC, is down 1-3 in OH.

[KingSweden]

Fox actually has pretty good polling. I think the state's they chose will be close or Trump leads based on the current CV but Fox isn't known for bias in polling. Gravis it is not

[Xing]

National: Clinton +4
NV: Clinton +1 (lol)
NC: Tie
OH: Trump +3

[KingSweden]

Was there a Pew survey released today? 538 had a (heavily adjusted) one showing C+7 appearing in the national poll updates

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

What time will the polls be out?

[dspNY]

Was there a Pew survey released today? 538 had a (heavily adjusted) one showing C+7 appearing in the national poll updates

I saw that...Nate Silver adjusting a Pew poll 4 points to the Republicans is a crooked move on his part because Pew is almost unerring (at most it is D+1)

[Dr. Arch]

Was there a Pew survey released today? 538 had a (heavily adjusted) one showing C+7 appearing in the national poll updates

I saw that...Nate Silver adjusting a Pew poll 4 points to the Republicans is a crooked move on his part because Pew is almost unerring (at most it is D+1)

He wants the horse race narrative so bad. The model has gotten loopier and loopier.

[KingSweden]

Was there a Pew survey released today? 538 had a (heavily adjusted) one showing C+7 appearing in the national poll updates

I saw that...Nate Silver adjusting a Pew poll 4 points to the Republicans is a crooked move on his part because Pew is almost unerring (at most it is D+1)

I'd get him giving it lower weight since it was conducted a while ago, but Pew shouldn't have been skewed when C+4 (first sign of tightening) and shouldn't be skewed now

[Wiz in Wis]

We're also going to get another dump of Google Consumer State Polls today... I've already looked... SNAFU.

[NOVA Green]

I'll go with:

NBC Ntl: C +3
NV- C +2
NC- T +1
OH- T +2

[Tender Branson]

New CO poll out today:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/09/21/purple-state-memo-michael-bennet-darryl-glenn-agree-to-only-1-prime-time-debate

[Tender Branson]

Results are here:

http://www.coloradomesa.edu/social-research-center/poll/index.html

(It was actually F&M who did the calls for the poll)

[Tender Branson]

I also like the concept of the poll:

Sending letters to 7.000 RV and ask them to do the poll via phone or online could lead to a sample of about 1.000 people, if every 7th is responding.

Looking forward to the results. My prediction: Clinton+4