Talk Elections

Is it just me? Or is this election going to be close. I'm hoping The GOP can keep this seat, or rather regain it, from that loser actor who goes wherever the wind blows. Meg Whitman has been packing some serious heat to Jerry Brown, and has been leading Gavin Newsom by several points. I'm hoping for a Whitman win over Newsom, crushing that loser into the dust and destroying his political career, whether he likes it or not. I like Jerry Brown, not politically, but personally. I wouldn't mind him as governor, although I'm really hoping for Whitman. I think she is just what California needs.

Thoughts on the race?

It's definitely a toss-up now. Whitman has the potential to win. So does Poizner. Whether they can run good campaigns and defeat the CA Democratic machine will be seen later. Also, if Newsom is the nominee, I honestly can't see him winning. But Brown is so old and wacko that really, the Republicans actually have a better field politically.

It's hardly a tossup, Hamilton.  The establishment will be strong for the Dems, especially since the last "Republican" governor is horribly unpopular.  It is obvious why Ahnuld won, and it's hard to imagine that an ugly, unexciting candidate like Whitman has a chance.

I'm not even sure I want a Republican to win.  Let the Democrats take the heat for the unfixable mess that is California.

The "establishment" was strongly for Davis. He won by five points. Arnold was sure to lose. He won by like 10 points. At this point, the Republican candidates haven't been caricatured by the media and a lot of people despise both the Dem front runners.

Whitman would be a horrible governor. Poinzer would probably be pretty bad, too. Campbell might not be so bad, so of course he won't get the Republican nomination.

But just for fun, imagine an Angelides v. Campbell race. It would be an amazing political race in that the issues might actually get discussed.

I just recently talked to an independent who will be voting for Jerry Brown because he thinks he did a great job in Oakland.  I think that he will be a pretty safe choice for Dems.

There will have to be a fantastic environment for Meg as well as her party for her to have a chance.

We've had 5 years of Democratic governors since 1983.

So? California is more liberal than before.

Yes but we are running liberal republicans as well. I think it's unfair to write them off right off of the bat. Besides I don't think Brown beats Newsom in a Democratic primary.

If Brown gets nominated (and he will), he'll beat everyone.

Really, Tom Campbell is the GOP's best bet, and if he can raise money would probably wipe the floor with Newsom and give Brown a race.

I don't get the Meg Whitman love-in. She is so closely tied to Prop 8 that whoever her opponent is would have no problem with money, and given the tensions going on, it would be unlikely she'd even be able to hold a town-hall without being disrupted. She would lose socially moderate whites, and not make that up with socially conservative minorities.

This race will hardly be close. Quote me on that next November. The only Republican that can appeal to voters is Campbell, and he's not winning the primary.

I'd like a Brown vs. Campbell fight though. Whitman is a joke.

Why is everyone assuming that Whitman wins the primary?  Campbell is the better candidate and Whitman has zero charisma.

By the way, Poizner is far behind both Campbell and Whitman in the polls.  We shouldn't even be talking about him anymore.

Whitman has the establishment support, which means a lot

On the contrary, I think Newsom is so tied to gay marriage that he's unelectable statewide.

Not sure I would go that far, but I would agree that he is toxic as well. My personal feeling is that in a race in which it becomes an issue it hurts whoever is associated with it. In a Brown-Whitman race it hurts Whitman, in a Newsom-Whitman race it hurts both, though Newsom is also hurt by his being a jackass.

I just feel Newsom is unlikely to win the nomination. And I think California is one place where there will be little to any republican wave. Even Rasmussen, in his likely voter screen, still has Obama over 60 there, and the party is such an utter mess that they need a pitch perfect candidate. Arnold won in special circumstances, was probably the most liberal Republican in the country, and managed to sneak through with a coalition of socially liberal whites, but Whitman, despite her business background, is going to bleed them on gay marriage in a fight with Brown, and as I mentioned, unlike Prop 8, she can't rely on minority voters to save her.

We actually saw a similar dynamic with the Gay Marriage issue in Massachusetts. Even though a narrow majority opposed Gay Marriage, opposition to it was fatal for politicians. Those opposed were split evenly between those who always voted Republican, and those who for ethnic or racial reasons never would. An overwelming majority of suburban white swing voters however favored it, and they ensured that when liberals managed to defeat conservatives in the democratic primaries, that those winners were easily elected in the general.

The same situation is at work in California. A narrow majority of voters may oppose Gay Marriage, but the overwhelming majority of voters a Republican actually needs to win statewide support it. If she is not competing for high-income whites I am not sure Whitman has another path to victory.

Overwhelming Hispanic and black support for Brown + Whitman's Social Conservatism  = 52- 45 Brown. Newsom would be closer but I would hardly count Whitman as the odds on favorite since she still faces all of the same problems.

I've been extremely impressed by Tom Campbell.  I think Poizner would be a decent choice, but he's nowhere near Campbell, IMO.  Whitman is but an afterthought.

I am hoping Campbell wins the Republican primary and I intend to help make it happen. Can't say for sure if I would vote for him in the general but I am seriously considering it. Can't say the same for Poizner and Whitman is a joke.

First, on the Democrat side, Brown will crush Newsome.

Second, suspect that Campbell will get the Republican nomination as Whitman is a complete looney and Poizner doesn't have the money.

Third, impossible to predict general election at this time.

Jerry Brown is the Andrew Cuomo of California. If he wants the job (and in the case we know he does), it's probably his.

He's more like Mario Cuomo.

I wouldn't say it's quite an accurate comparison, and if the [as of now] expected GOP slate of Whitman and Fiorina didn't turn out to be such disasters, I'd have a laundry list of disagreements for you.

So Brown's the only serious democratic candidate? I don't think Villaraigosa is running either.

Yeah, Brown has it now.

Rumor has it that Newsom will run for Lieutenant Governor. I don't see it happening.

Amazing that a huge, heavily Democratic state has no contested Democratic primary for Governor, but the Republicans have a three-way primary going.

Whitman is so dead (politically).

Money can NOT buy you everything.

I'm sure someone will still contest it, at least, I'd be really surprised if no one emerged. I mean, every other state (OH, IL, CT) seems to have businessmen running on all sides of the primaries.

Newsom for Senate 2012?

Interesting idea. Maybe.