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Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on August 31, 2009, 12:20:52 PM



Title: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on August 31, 2009, 12:20:52 PM
An early start to the thread...

Regional elections for the regional legislatures of 26 "regions" (22 in France in addition to Martinique, Guadeloupe, Reunion, Guyane) are being held in March 2010 (probably the 21st and 28th, as in 2004), six years after the 2004 elections, a nightmare for the right.

The current electoral system was adopted in 2003 (the same time as the Euros electoral reform) to ensure permanent, stable majority administrations in all regions. The system used is a two-round system, with 10% of votes cast (suffrages exprimés, as opposed to registered voters, or inscrits, used in legislative elections) as a threshold for a spot in the runoff. However, if a list gets over 5% of votes cast, it can "merge" with a qualified list, meaning that the defeated list get spots on the list it merged with. For seats, there is a 5% threshold in the runoff. The winning list in the runoff automatically gets a fourth of the seats as a majority bonus, and the remaining seats are attributed proportionally, first on a region-wide basis and then divided up by 'section' (departments) based on the votes in each 'section'.

...all of this is true for all regions... except Corse - where the threshold for the runoff is 5%.

Quote
Simulation:

In Region X (52 seats) the first round is as follows:

PS 35%
UMP 20%
PCF 11%
FN 10%
UDF 8%
Greens 8%
CPNT 4%
MEI 4%

PS, UMP, PCF, FN are qualified for the runoff. UDF and Greens can merge if they wish.

PCF drops out and merges with the PS, as do the Greens. UDF merges with the UMP.

Runoff:

PS 47%
UMP 30%
FN 23%

PS gets 13 seats automatically. 39 seats are distributed: PS 18, UMP 12, FN 9.

PS 31 seats (59.62%)
UMP 12 seats (23.08%)
FN 9 seats (17.31%)

Prior to 2003, the regionals used a one-round pure PR system based on departments. Lists winning over 5% of the vote won seats in a department etc. That led to winners without majorities, and the strength of the FN led to mass chaos sessions when time came to elect the President of the Region. Some RPR-UDF Presidents were elected with FN support, and, in fact, the creation of DL in 1998 was based around this situation: the UDF condemned the election of right-wing Presidents with FN support while the members who created DL had no problems with that. The 1998 series was one of mass chaos, confusion and fighting, indeed. Some RPR-UDF Presidents elected with FN while they didn't want FN support resigned immediately, sometimes leading to minority PS administrations, RPR-UDF Presidents elected with PS support...

In 2004, in the context of the UMP's (Chirac/Raffarin) massive unpopularity, the left swept 20 of the 22 Metro regions except Alsace and Corse. Even in Corse, the left had a majority, but the warring factions of the left (Giacobbi vs. Zuccarelli) never got along, so the UMP won. In the first round, the UDF had common lists with the UMP in only 6 regions, while the Greens and PCF often had common lists with the PS by the first round. Most UDF lists merged with the UMP, as did Green and PCF lists.

Results:

Alsace: Adrien Zeller (UMP) re-elected
Aquitaine: Alain Rousset (PS) re-elected
Auvergne: Pierre-Joël Bonté (PS) elected Valéry Giscard d'Estaing defeated
Bourgogne: François Patriat (PS) elected Jean-Pierre Soisson defeated
Bretagne: Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS) elected Josselin de Rohan defeated
Centre: Michel Sapin (PS) elected
Champagne-Ardenne: Jean-Paul Bachy (PS) elected Jean-Claude Etienne defeated
Corse: Camille de Rocca Serra (UMP) elected José Rossi (DL) defeated
Franche-Comté: Raymond Forni (PS) elected Jean-François Humbert defeated
Île-de-France: Jean-Paul Huchon (PS) re-elected
Languedoc-Roussillon: Georges Frêche (PS) elected Jacques Blanc defeated
Limousin: Jean-Paul Denanot (PS) re-elected
Lorraine: Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS) elected Gérard Longuet defeated
Midi-Pyrénées: Martin Malvy (PS) re-elected
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Daniel Percheron (PS) re-elected
Basse-Normandie: Philippe Duron (PS) elected René Garrec defeated
Haute-Normandie: Alain Le Vern (PS) re-elected
Pays de la Loire: Jacques Auxiette (PS) elected François Fillon defeated
Picardie: Claude Gewerc (PS) elected Gilles de Robien (UDF) defeated
Poitou-Charentes: Ségolène Royal (PS) elected Élisabeth Morin defeated
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Michel Vauzelle (PS) re-elected
Rhône-Alpes: Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS) elected Anne-Marie Comparini (UDF) defeated
Guadeloupe: Victorin Lurel (PS) elected Lucette Michaux-Chevry defeated
Guyane: Antoine Karam (PSG) re-elected
Martinique: Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM) re-elected
La Réunion: Paul Vergès (PCR) re-elected



So, 2010. The right has decided to keep the electoral system, it seems, despite some talk of changing it back to the 1998 system. In addition, the UMP nominated almost all of its top candidates very early in online primaries, leading to a pretty low-quality field of candidates. This includes Alain Lambert, an uninspiring Senator and a dirty opportunist in Basse-Normandie; Hervé Novelli, who represents a brand of libertarianism and neoliberalism quite unpopular with voters in the Centre; and Roselyne Bachelot, the weirdo Health Minister in 'Pays-de-la-Loire'. The NC has nominated top candidates, as it did prior to the Euros, and they now negotiate places for these candidates with the UMP... unless the NC risks it by going alone in the first round (possibly playing on its newfound message of being the only centre - the MoDem is now, practically, a centre-left party, with de Sarnez playing chummy with Peillon, Hue, Duflot and so forth). The merger threshold is 5%, and the NC is about 2% of the votes alone, but it could (big could) do more than 5% in the Centre, Basse-Normandie, Haute-Normandie and why not Picardie. The MPF will likely support the UMP lists by the first round, as it did in 2004, though I have heard talk that the UMP might actually prefer an independent MPF list in PACA (probably one led by Jacques or Marie-Claude Bompard, the ex-FNs from Orange) to hurt the FN.

However, the PS is definitely on the defensive after being on the offensive in 1992, 1998 and 2004 (1992 was, of course, an epic fail). In addition, the brief rosy days for the old Plural Left in 2004 are quite gone, with the Greenies very much ready to go it alone in all regions (unlike in 2004) plus the PCF and PG wishing the renew the Left Front by running alone in all regions in the first round. The PS will have a hard time forging alliances, since all of its historical allies are growing independent since June, and the PCF-PG has called bullsh**t on Aubry's proposal to forge an alliance with the MoDem, while the MoDem still is cold to an outright alliance with the PS... The MoDem seems to hesitate, again, due to the hard situation it finds itself in. IIRC, Bayrou wishes to unilaterally adopt a 'national policy' vis-a-vis alliances, unlike in the locals where it was more on the cas par cas, meaning that it supported Juppé (UMP) in Bordeaux, Aubry (PS) in Lille, and ended up endorsing at some point Rebsamen (PS) in Dijon, Guérini (PS) in Marseille, Destot (PS) in Grenoble... some local MoDems liked to ally with the UMP (Bordeaux), while in other cases the local leaders liked to work with the PS. And the NPA is also a force to watch, and it also refuses all runoff alliances with the PS.

However, I think the nightmare scenarios for the PS based on the June results are off the point. Firstly, regionals and Euros are different elections and since 2003, the electoral systems are different. Secondly, you have 60% turnout in regionals, while you have 40% turnout in the Euros. Thirdly, voters have voted differently in Euros since they often give massive slaps to parties (PS in 1984, 1994 and 2009; RPR in 1999) and beautiful results by 'maverick parties' often have little tomorrow (Radicals in 1994; RPF-MPF in 1999; even PS in 2004 given that 2005 was a year of division for the PS and 2007 wasn't very nice either). Fourthly, regional elections have 'candidates' that are more well-known and with stronger following than MEPs. Fifthly, I see that the PS is currently morphing into the old RadSoc Party, meaning a party of notables in local administrations, a party of local administrations. Regionals also tend to have less protest voting, especially since 2004.

So, the situation in 2010 is interesting... and I shall post my first predictions later today.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on August 31, 2009, 01:04:24 PM
The big question at the moment is whether Frêche will receive PS support to run for re-election in Languedoc-Roussillon (he was expelled from the party after he made racist comments). It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on August 31, 2009, 01:16:59 PM
The big question at the moment is whether Frêche will receive PS support to run for re-election in Languedoc-Roussillon (he was expelled from the party after he made racist comments).

The Languedoc-Roussillon PS is almost all behind him, only Helene Mandroux (Mayor of Montpellier) is a major holdout, since they're rivals. In addition, I'm pretty sure he has the Herault federation backed up behind him, and that's big. What seems possible, since I think Frêche does not fit the conditions required to gain the PS endorsement, is that his lieutenant, Eric Andrieu may be the PS top candidate if the PS endorses the Frêche faction.

However, the Greens and PCF are staunch opponents of Frêche and the PCF has already threatened to not merge with the PS in the runoff if Frêche is candidate. If the PCF crosses 10%, as it almost did in the Euros, this is important.

Quote
It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).

Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on August 31, 2009, 01:46:36 PM
Alsace: Safe UMP
Aquitaine: Safe PS

Auvergne: Safe PS Valéry Giscard d'Estaing is gone, and the region is a left-leaning one with strong results in Allier, Puy-de-Dome with the right limited to small Cantal and Haute-Loire.
Bourgogne: Tossup The right finds itself in a tough situation here.
Bretagne: Safe PS
Centre: Lean PS Could also be safe, since Novelli sucks.
Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one.
Corse: Tossup This depends on the candidates, especially on the left. Also, watch out for the nationalists.
Franche-Comté: Tossup
Île-de-France: Lean PS
I think the right's digs on the Big Prize could end up like in 2004...
Languedoc-Roussillon: Safe Left The fight is on the left.
Limousin: Safe PS
Lorraine: Tossup Another big right-wing target, and quite winnable.
Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS
The FN makes the runoff here, and Marine Le Pen probably runs here, since it's her new preferred place to carpetbag to.
Basse-Normandie: Tossup
Haute-Normandie: Safe PS
Pays de la Loire: Tossup Auxiette has a good chance at re-election, but the combined right was very strong here in the Euros... but Bachelot sucks.
Picardie: Safe PS The FN makes the runoff here
Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS This region can go screw themselves.
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Tossup  Depends on the UMP candidate, Falco might be a good candidate. The FN makes the runoff here
Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS
Guadeloupe: Safe PS
Guyane: No clue
Martinique: No clue

La Réunion: Safe PCR


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Jens on August 31, 2009, 01:55:40 PM
What's up with île Bourbon (aka La Reunion)? Why so leftwing?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on August 31, 2009, 02:09:11 PM
Quote
It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).

Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.


Oh, I agree that it's very unlikely. I would say it would be even more unlikely if Giacobbi made it into the government, because he seems like he would be the natural candidate of a united left otherwise.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on August 31, 2009, 02:22:58 PM
Quote
It will also be interesting to see if the left can unite behind a single candidate (probably from the PRG) in Corsica to avoid a repeat of 2004 (though, of course, the PS should be focusing on defending its own regions).

Since this is Corse we're talking about, keep dreaming!

However, if Giacobbi gets a spot in cabinet, this could change.


Oh, I agree that it's very unlikely. I would say it would be even more unlikely if Giacobbi made it into the government, because he seems like he would be the natural candidate of a united left otherwise.

United Left under Giacobbi? I have serious doubts that his colleague Zuccarelli would accept that, given that he hates him, and I think Zuccarelli is still interested by a run in 2010.

What's up with île Bourbon (aka La Reunion)? Why so leftwing?

Local politics overseas are often very complex and low-coverage affairs, often highly dependent on personalities. Paul Vergès is very popular in Reunion, and the PCR represents an autonomist line quite popular in a department with a staggering unemployment rate and with a very diverse population. Note, on the other hand, that the lack of Paul Vergès means that in the General Council, the PCR is a fourth party and the presidency is held by a moderate UMPer elected with the votes of the PS and PCR.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on September 01, 2009, 04:18:43 AM
Here is mine. Slightly different. Not to be contrarian, just because regional modds are always changing. I'll update it from time to time.

Alsace: Safe UMP

Aquitaine: Safe PS
If Darcos is eventually candidate (he's not so sure any longer...), he will be deeply defeated. I'm not sure Sarkozy will save him again.

Auvergne: Safe PS Only Wauquiez would have been able to thereaten (a little bit) the left.

Bourgogne: Lean PS The right has no leader here for some time. With Dijon solid on the left, the right has only sparsely populated areas in the north of Côte-d'Or, the ex-FN suburbs and "rurbains" (urban people in rural countryside) of Yonne and the wine producers...

Bretagne: Safe PS I wonder if Bretagne isn't now the best region for the PS with Limousin, maybe above Midi-Pyrenees.

Centre: Lean PS I haven't understood AT ALL the big victory of Novelli against Serge Lepeltier in UMP primaries. Lepeltier is a moderate, pragmatic, "green", locally well-seated guy from the Radicals. He might have taken the region. Novelli can't.

Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) "If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one" my own words !

Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.

Franche-Comté: Tossup Joyandet is a good leader for the regional UMP, but, with the crisis, Belfort-Sochaux-Montbéliard will heavily vote on the left; and the Greens may have a good result here and will be at peace with the PS.

Île-de-France: Lean PS I wonder if Sarkozy, after not having supported Karoutchi in the primary, does not intend to see Pécresse lose... Unfortunately, I will be very sad, come the election day... But Pécresse is too "Versailles" to win.

Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...

Limousin: Safe PS

Lorraine: Tossup The right should win on the paper, but is so divided...

Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS

Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS


Basse-Normandie: Tossup It should be a "lean UMP", but not with Lambert and all the infightings...

Haute-Normandie: Safe PS

Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.

Picardie: Safe PS

Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists ;)

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Lean UMP (GAIN)  I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.

Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS With Collomb, I would have said "tossup", as he's digging his own grave, by being so megalomaniac... In 2014, the right will have an opportunity for the mayorship, if (a very big if) it's united and with a clever leader.

Outre-mer: the stakes are only local. I won't make any prediction.

Overall:
Right 4
Left 15
Tossup 3

If I have to break the ties, I would say Lorraine to the right and Franche-Comté and Basse-Normandie to the left.... But that's just for the moment and just not to give everything to the left...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on September 04, 2009, 10:27:41 PM
Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.

Corse will depend a lot on who are the candidates and what base they bring and how they behave in a runoff. However, Corse often goes against national trends in some ways (UMP vote share fell in Corse-du-Sud between 2004 and 2009 Euros, Le Pen's 2007 vote share was close to his 2002 vote share, the left gained two seats in 2002 legislative etc.); so they might be the left-wing's surprise gain. However, the Corsican left makes the PS seem like a fully united party, so...

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Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...

It will be interesting, but I don't think the left vote will be split so evenly as to allow the UMP to run up the middle in the runoff and win. The left wins, and, imo, Frèche wins.
Quote
Limousin: Safe PS

omgdz no wai rly ;D

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Basse-Normandie: Tossup It should be a "lean UMP", but not with Lambert and all the infightings...

There has been talk that the UMP might be amenable to having a NC, like Philippe Augier (former deputy for western Caen) take the top spot of a UMP-NC list... maybe they realize that a scumbag like Lambert is acid to a potential gain.

Augier is much better material than Lambert for a potential victory.

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Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.

I do hope you're right, since I hate Auxiette more than anything else. But Bachelot isn't really an asset for the right here, though... but I don't really think that will hurt the UMP that much in the voting booth...

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Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists ;)

There is talk to dump Henri de Richemont, the UMP's candidate for a more high-profile name like Dominique Bussereau (President of Charente-Maritime CG and Secretary of State for Transports) or even Jean-Pierre Raffarin. de Richemont has low name recognition and he's pretty much a loser anyways. Though maybe it would be nicer to sacrifice a no-name ex-Senator for some place than risk Bussereau or Raffarin.

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Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Lean UMP (GAIN)  I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.

Quite a risky call you've made ;D Won't disagree (or agree) until I get more info on this race.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on September 04, 2009, 10:35:24 PM
Here are the main strategies discussed inside the MoDem:

The extreme-centrist strategy of autonomous lists in the first round, keeping them in the runoff if possible and if not, no fusions.

Autonomous lists in the first round, alliance with the left or ecologists in runoff. Strategy supported by Marielle de Sarnez, and imo, Bayrou himself.

Alliance with the ecologists in the first round and the left in the runoff. Strategy supported by Corinne Lepage.

'Defferre strategy': alliance with the left by the first round in a large anti-Sarko rally. Supported by Jean-François Kahn.

So, nobody supports the idea of 'alliances of differing geography' - aka, a case-by-case alliance like in 2008. Those who did support this have probably been purged by the Politburo and the General Secretary himself.

And if anybody needed proof that the MoDem is a centre-left party. Ancestor of Christian democracy my ass. Poor Lecanuet, Poher, Pfimlin, Schumann...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on September 05, 2009, 04:22:02 PM
Well, it's an interesting change from the right-wing "center" that's prevailed throughout the Fifth Republic.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on September 11, 2009, 06:22:57 PM
Alain Lambert has dropped out after throwing a hissy fit claiming nobody supported him and/or nobody trusted him. The media thinks that this clears the way for the Mayor of Deauville, Philippe Augier (NC).

However, Alain Lambert hates him and blames him for the loss of the region in 2004 (Augier was the top candidate of the UDF list which very reluctantly supported the UMP in the runoff) and said outright "Je ne le soutiendrai jamais". The old fool supports a 'candidate aged 30-45'. Potential candidates who fit that asshole's requirements include these two candidates, which aren't really bigwigs: Joël Bruneau (45, President of the UMP Calvados Fed) and Philippe Gosselin (43, Deputy for the Manche-Saint-Lô constituency). Guénhaël Huet, Deputy for Avranches; said that he wants 'the union of the Presidential Majority around a project with a younger list'. Augier, ftr, is 60 and Lambert is 62.

Also, there's some talk of Bachelot dropping out in PdL®. The young President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council and newly-elected MEP Christophe Béchu is floated as a replacement if she does drop out.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on September 11, 2009, 07:13:43 PM
Also, there's some talk of Bachelot dropping out in PdL®. The young President of the Maine-et-Loire General Council and newly-elected MEP Christophe Béchu is floated as a replacement if she does drop out.

Bachelot has openly criticized Sarkozy's policy of having ministers run in elections and resign from government if elected, and said that she felt perfectly capable of serving simultaneously as health minister and president of Pays de la Loire. Béchu, of course, would be a much stronger candidate.

It seems that the NC is determined to run independently in the first round. The current NC list leader in Pays de la Loire is Michel Hunault, member of the National Assembly for northern Loire-Atlantique. However, Morin is courting Jean Arthuis, the president of Mayenne and founder of the new Alliance centriste. Arthuis led the UDF list in 2004.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on September 12, 2009, 02:39:33 PM
Quote
Bachelot has openly criticized Sarkozy's policy of having ministers run in elections and resign from government if elected, and said that she felt perfectly capable of serving simultaneously as health minister and president of Pays de la Loire. Béchu, of course, would be a much stronger candidate.

She's a twat, so it isn't really hard to be better than her. And you need to be a twat to criticize Dear Leader openly.

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It seems that the NC is determined to run independently in the first round. The current NC list leader in Pays de la Loire is Michel Hunault, member of the National Assembly for northern Loire-Atlantique. However, Morin is courting Jean Arthuis, the president of Mayenne and founder of the new Alliance centriste. Arthuis led the UDF list in 2004.

Hunault is more like the generic-NC-candidate-who-we-wish-could-get-a-spot-on-the-UMP-list guy and has little name recognition outside of his constituency and surrounding areas (and a lot of these areas happen to be in Region Bretagne anyways). Though if he did run he'd probably sweep his constituency like he did in the 2004 Euros and poll 1% elsewhere.

Arthuis would be a better candidate for them, no doubt.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on September 21, 2009, 05:35:25 AM
Update and not a good one for the right, with Falco being NOT a candidate... OMG !

Alsace: Safe UMP
no change

Aquitaine: Safe PS If Darcos is eventually candidate (he's not so sure any longer...), he will be deeply defeated. I'm not sure Sarkozy will save him again.
no change

Auvergne: Safe PS Only Wauquiez would have been able to thereaten (a little bit) the left.
no change

Bourgogne: Lean PS The right has no leader here for some time and François Sauvadet, from the NC, is a "classic" rural local baron, not really appealing. With Dijon solid on the left, the right has only sparsely populated areas in the north of Côte-d'Or, the ex-FN suburbs and "rurbains" (urban people in rural countryside) of Yonne and the wine producers...
no change

Bretagne: Safe PS I wonder if Bretagne isn't now the best region for the PS with Limousin, maybe above Midi-Pyrenees.
no change

Centre: Lean PS I haven't understood AT ALL the big victory of Novelli against Serge Lepeltier in UMP primaries. Lepeltier is a moderate, pragmatic, "green", locally well-seated guy from the Radicals. He might have taken the region. Novelli can't.
no change

Champagne-Ardenne: Lean UMP (GAIN) "If the UMP gains only one region, it will be this one" my own words !
no change

Corse: Lean Left (GAIN) Whatever the winning list or wing, I think the next president will be a PRG or a DVG.
no change

Franche-Comté: Lean PS Joyandet is a good leader for the regional UMP, but, with the crisis, Belfort-Sochaux-Montbéliard will heavily vote on the left; and the Greens may have a good result here and will be at peace with the PS.
Joyandet is now uncertain to lead the list. Without him, only old and unknown littl barons.
tossup -> lean PS

Île-de-France: Lean PS I wonder if Sarkozy, after not having supported Karoutchi in the primary, does not intend to see Pécresse lose... Unfortunately, I will be very sad, come the election day... But Pécresse is too "Versailles" to win. And with Santini, Karoutchi, Yade, Jouanno all in the Hauts-de-Seine, it will be a harmful mess...
no change

Languedoc-Roussillon: Lean PS Just "lean", because a wild scenario is not at all impossible: the UMP gaining a plurality, just above the 2 lists of the left: Frèche-CPNT-old PS / Greens-so-called"clean" PS...
no change

Limousin: Safe PS
no change

Lorraine: Tossup The left is a bit "exhausted" here and the right should win on the paper, but is so divided...
no change

Midi-Pyrénées: Safe PS
no change

Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Safe PS

no change

Basse-Normandie: Lean PS It should be a "lean UMP", and with Lambert out, it should be again, BUT... Nicole Ameline tries to come back and Lambert has promised to do all what he can to harm Philippe Augier, former MoDem now NC, the last chance for the right...
tossup -> lean PS

Haute-Normandie: Safe PS
no change

Pays de la Loire: Lean UMP (GAIN) I despise and hate Bachelot. But she does quite well with the swine flu (I mean, she's good -better than other ministers- in the medias...). And with her image of "modernity" and with Villiers' support, it's really winnable. Without this, it would be a real failure for the UMP.
Now that Bachelot is almost out, if Béchu is candidate, the right is better. The only problem is that, in the Greater West, when the UMP has a problem anywhere, the only answer you've got is: Christophe Béchu... We need many Christophe Béchu...
no change

Picardie: Safe PS
no change

Poitou-Charentes: Safe PS What is at stake is the relative result of Royal: more or less than in 2004, more or less than in the 2009 European elections, more or less than other socialist presidents reelected next year. Expect some PS members to vote blank or for other lists ;)
no change

Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Tossup  I wanted to be a bit more daring on this one. But Falco isn't candidate any longer. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum and the region is really on the right now, but with a dull candidate as Deflesselles or Teissier, it will be harder. Still, Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.
lean UMP -> tossup

Rhône-Alpes: Lean PS With Collomb, I would have said "tossup", as he's digging his own grave, by being so megalomaniac... In 2014, the right will have an opportunity for the mayorship, if (a very big if) it's united and with a clever leader.
no change

(Outre-mer: the stakes are only local. I won't make any prediction.)

Overall:
Right 3
Left 17
Tossup 2



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 01, 2009, 08:39:36 PM
First poll! (nationwide, bleh)

OpinionWay for LeFigaro.

()

UMP 32%
PS 19%
Greens 16%
PCF-PG 8%
MoDem 7%
FN 6%
NPA 5%
NC 4%
Others 3%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/oway2.pdf
http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/10/02/01002-20091002ARTFIG00004-l-ump-loin-devant-au-premier-tour-les-verts-talonnent-le-ps-.php

If these high numbers hold for the Greenies until March (I'm surprised that they've held since June, as shown in Rambouillet, could the Euros have, for once, started a political trend?), they could finish with pleasing results in March and in places like IdF or Rhone-Alpes the PS could be threatened by the first round. Duflot-Pecresse runoff instead of Huchon-Pecresse!? ;) I think the Greenies could be a serious thing in March for the PS.

Anyways, these numbers don't spell ZOMG UMP LANDSLIDES since the UMP has no reserves except for the NC: the Parliamentary Left has 43% (50% with the MoDem, 55% with the Trots) against 36% for the Majority (42% with the FN). And the article makes a good point of mentioning that the first round is the Socialist problem, the runoff is the UMP problem.

And, yeah, absolutely shocking to see Sarko et al so passionate about 'territorial reform'!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 02, 2009, 04:49:03 AM
Another poll from CSA (crap pollster, that regularly overrate the PS, and even more the MoDem and the FN), for "La Chaîne Parlementaire":

UMP 31
PS 21
Verts 17
MoDem 8
FN 8
PCF-PG 6
NPA 6
LO 3

Of course, even worse for the right.
But the choices were a bit narrow for the centre-right and the right in this poll...! And CSA is biased.

But, of course, a poll by OpinionWay for Le Figaro can't be viewed as balanced either !

I think we must take Greens' results for what they are: a national answer to a national question.
Locally, when people will vote in each département, I'm not so sure the Greens will be at this level.
EXCEPT in great cities. There, the Greens may be very dangerous for the PS. So, sure, IdF and Rhône-Alpes may be interesting...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on October 02, 2009, 12:00:56 PM
The PS held primary elections yesterday. Turnout according to the PS website was at 46%.

In Alsace, the top candidate will be Jacques Bigot, the president of the Strasbourg Urban Community.

In Corse, the top candidate will be Emmanuelle de Gentili, the deputy mayor of Bastia.

The voters nominated Jacques Meyer, a regional vice president and mayor of Reims, in Champagne-Ardenne, where the PS president Jean-Paul Bachy was expelled from the party.

Didier Codorniou won the primary in Languedoc-Roussillon. Codorniou hinted that he would let Georges Frêche, the incumbent president who was also ousted from the party, have the presidency.

Incumbent presidents Jean-Paul Huchon (Ile-de-France), Ségolène Royal (Poitou-Charentes), and Jean-Jack Queyranne (Rhône-Alpe) all defeated their opponents. All of the other PS presidents in the metropole ran unopposed. I couldn’t find any results for the four overseas regions.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 02, 2009, 03:05:40 PM
I think we must take Greens' results for what they are: a national answer to a national question.
Locally, when people will vote in each département, I'm not so sure the Greens will be at this level.
EXCEPT in great cities. There, the Greens may be very dangerous for the PS. So, sure, IdF and Rhône-Alpes may be interesting...

What might be encouraging for the Greenies is that 60% of their voters are voting on "local concerns" over "national concerns". Which isn't the case for the PS, whose voters are by far and large the We Hate Sarko gang (shared with the Left Front).

In Corse, the top candidate will be Emmanuelle de Gentili, the deputy mayor of Bastia.

FTR, if the left wins in Corse, it won't be the Socialists since the PS has very little actual infrastructure on the island. If the left wins, it will be a high-profile LeftRad or DVG.

Quote
The voters nominated Jacques Meyer, a regional vice president and mayor of Reims, in Champagne-Ardenne, where the PS president Jean-Paul Bachy was expelled from the party.

Jacques Meyer is only a regional vice president and maire-adjoint of Reims. So, yay, a nobody again.

Quote
I couldn’t find any results for the four overseas regions.

Only Guadeloupe is worthwhile, and Victorin Lurel will run again. They'll run total nobodies in the other regions who will lose. Except in Guyane, where there's no PS. It's the PSG there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 02, 2009, 07:04:09 PM
Jacques Bompard and Philippe de Villiers seem to be heading for an all-out war. While de Villiers is licking Sarkozy's ass, Bompard has shown his opposition to the Viscount's strategy and also to Sarkozy himself. Now, Bompard, a former FN-turned-MPF and Mayor of Orange (Vaucluse), is leading his own list in PACA for the regionals: the Southern League (Ligue du sud, named after Bompard's role model, the Italian Lega Nord). Patrick Louis, the MPF's local boss, quickly said that Bompard was acting independently and that the MPF disapproved of the Southern League. However, Bompard's list has gathered some support on the far-right, like Guy Macary who led the FN's list in the region in 2004 (in the absence of Le Pen).

And in PACA, the right is fighting for a candidate. With its best candidates, Hubert Falco and Renaud Muselier out, the fight is between Guy Teissier and Thierry Mariani. Bernard Deflesselles is also presumed to be in, but he's a minor name. Sarkozy supports Mariani, and Gaudin probably does too. Lionnel Luca and other UMP MPs support Teissier.

And a poll in PACA, a UMP internal:

UMP 31-34%
Michel Vauzelle (PS) 27-29%
Greens 14-16%
FN 12-14%
MoDem 5-6%
Bompard not tested

Vauzelle (PS) would win a runoff with anywhere between 49 and 51%.

Le Figaro.fr (http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/10/02/01002-20091002ARTFIG00324-en-paca-la-droite-cherche-toujours-sa-tete-de-liste-.php) has a good overview.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on October 05, 2009, 02:22:27 PM
By today I'd see it that way:

Big abstention: big Greens, big UMP.

Low abstention: lower Greens, bigger PS.

Question would be the abstention, still.

The Euros trend then.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 05, 2009, 04:45:55 PM
By today I'd see it that way:

Big abstention: big Greens, big UMP.

Low abstention: lower Greens, bigger PS.

Question would be the abstention, still.

The Euros trend then.

Turnout is quite good in regionals, and worlds better compared to the Euros. You had close to 65% turnout in 2004, though quite lower in 1998 (still above fifty, afaik).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on October 07, 2009, 01:33:42 PM
Bachelot has withdrawn her candidacy. (http://www.ouest-france.fr/actu/actuDetFdj_-Regionales-2010-pourquoi-Roselyne-Bachelot-se-retire_39382-1099020_actu.Htm) The UMP will announce its new list leader on November 28, but the big name seems to be Béchu (again). With Bachelot out of the running, naturally, Auxiette's chances of winning re-election seem dim.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 07, 2009, 05:38:08 PM
Bachelot has withdrawn her candidacy. (http://www.ouest-france.fr/actu/actuDetFdj_-Regionales-2010-pourquoi-Roselyne-Bachelot-se-retire_39382-1099020_actu.Htm) The UMP will announce its new list leader on November 28, but the big name seems to be Béchu (again). With Bachelot out of the running, naturally, Auxiette's chances of winning re-election seem dim.

Béchu wins the nod, and he increases the UMP's odds of winning. I hope the imperalist-colonialist Auxiette dies in a fire.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 17, 2009, 10:43:42 AM
The Bloc identitaire, a radical far-right outfit (anti-immigration, agrarian-populist, and ethnonationalist) will organize as a political party and run in future elections. It will probably support Jacques Bompard's Southern League in the regionals in PACA.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 18, 2009, 11:16:27 AM
Old IFOP poll in Languedoc-Roussillon for the PS.

http://www.montpellier-journal.fr/fichiers/sondageandrieufreche.pdf

I'll post the scenario in which Frêche (DVG) is the PS candidate, and not the Eric Andrieu (PS) vs. Frêche (DVG) scenarios.

Couderc (UMP) 27%
Frêche (PS) 25%
Roumegas (Greens) 16%
Aliot (FN) 11%
Liberti (PCF-PG) 8%
Dufour (MoDem) 6%
? (NPA) 4%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

Runoffs:

Couderc (UMP) 38%
Frêche (PS) 36%
Roumegas (Greens) 26%

Frêche (PS-Greens) 53%
Couderc (UMP) 47%

Not testing the FN is annoying, but if Aliot makes the runoff, he'd probably poll 11% or slightly less (8-10%).

Also, the two-way is surprisingly good for the UMP considering how runoffs are lethal to them, and considering how they polled only like 33% in the 2004 three-way runoff. Probably more of a result of good MoDem transfers (the Bayrou voters in 2007 break 51-49 for the left) and also 20% of Green voters in the Euro voting Couderc (and 10% of the PS, probably the big time Frêche haters).

A new far-right/Identitaire list based off of Bompard's Southern League, the League of the Midi, was not tested. If it polls well enough, it could draw Aliot (FN) down enough to prevent him from making the runoff.



...but not so good in Rhône-Alpes.

Grossetête (UMP) 31%
Queyranne (PS) 25%
Rebelle (Greens) 20% (18% for Tête)
Gollnisch (FN) 8%
Begag (MoDem) 7%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Queyranne (PS) 53%
Grossetête (UMP) 38%
Begag (MoDem) 9%

Queyranne (PS) 51%
Grossetête (UMP) 40%
Gollnisch (FN) 9%

The FN scenario is interesting in that Gollnisch's entry into the runoff polls the Socialists down a fair amount and the UMP down 1%. Not really surprising since I doubt people who still vote FN today will vote for Sarko's party in a runoff given how they hate each other, but I bring this up because it could mean interesting things in Languedoc-Roussillon if Aliot makes the runoff, then Couderc has a good chance at a surprise win.

Also, righties chose the wrong candidate since the poll says voters prefer Barnier (35%) over Grossetête (20%), Perben (19%) and Obergruppenführer Eric Judas Besson (18%)

As a reminder, Queyranne won 47% of the vote in the 2004 runoff against 38% for Comparini (UDF-UMP) and 15% for Gollnisch, whose result was down quite a bit from his 18.2% in the first round. The Greenies polled 10% in the first round, running alone.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 18, 2009, 11:18:46 AM
Urgh. Frêche is disgusting. Vote Communist! (lol)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 22, 2009, 06:19:52 PM
The NC presented its final list of its 22 'chefs de file', which will try to negotiate either a first-round alliance with the UMP or lead a NC-only list by the first round.

List: http://www.le-nouveaucentre.org/images/DocPresse/chefsdefilereg.pdf

They've taken the usual route of taking almost all of their MPs and sticking them with the label, like in the Euros. In regions where they're unknown, they found a regional councillor or Mayor of some place.

Sarkozy, which wants a universal first-round UMP-NC alliance, has proposed giving the NC 3 top spots (quite generous, given the NC is worth like 2%): Valérie Létard, Secretary of State to the Minister of Ecology (NPDC); François Sauvadet, leader of the NC group (Bourgogne); and Philippe Augier, Mayor of Deauville in Basse-Normandie.

However, the NC has a little dream of its own that Sarko would give up the leadership of the Only Region Which Really Matters to the NC. Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93). Santini led the UDF list in 2004, and he merged with Copé's UMP list.

The NC is floating the name of Alsace, Aquitaine, Bretagne, Pays de la Loire and Rhône-Alpes as regions where the NC could run alone by the first round. Pretty dumb choices since they're not worth much there, and they're generally unheard of in Bretagne save for some locally-known general or regional councillors. They gave Loïck Le Brun, the old figure of the perennial-losing right in Rennes, the top spot, but they wanted to give it to the Mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who refused. If I was them, I'd probably run in the Centre since you have Loir-et-Cher in there, and the NC is quite strong in the Centre and could really break 5% (unlike in most other regions). A Michel Hunault candidacy in Pays-de-la-Loire would be funny since he has a huge favourite son effect and he'd probably break 30% in his constituency while barely breaking 1% outside of there.

People like Charles de Courson (Champagne-Ardenne), Rudy Salles (PACA), Stéphane Demilly (Picardie) are more of the Thanks-for-the-spot, but-we'd-rather-run-with-the-UMP genre.

Also, Boutin said she'd run an independent PDC list in Pays de Loire if the UMP doesn't give her enough joke spots. You have to love her overblown ego.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on October 22, 2009, 06:25:01 PM
Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 22, 2009, 06:30:06 PM
Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.

Santini is an old crook.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on October 22, 2009, 06:32:22 PM
Talking about given Santini, whom he fired in June, the top spot in IdF from Valérie Pécresse. Santini, and the NC Politburo, would like an independent centrist list by the first round because the old crook thinks he's the better candidate for the right. He has already made a 'tandem' with Jean-Christophe Lagarde, a young NC MP and Mayor of Drancy (93).

It's not very hard to be better than Pécresse as a candidate, dunno, maybe she's here because UMP sees it given they would lose here. If Lagarde is with Santini, I support it.

Santini is an old crook.

Know it, but I see Lagarde as one of the most decent politician we have, so...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 23, 2009, 10:27:08 AM
The NC is floating the name of Alsace, Aquitaine, Bretagne, Pays de la Loire and Rhône-Alpes as regions where the NC could run alone by the first round. Pretty dumb choices since they're not worth much there, and they're generally unheard of in Bretagne save for some locally-known general or regional councillors. They gave Loïck Le Brun, the old figure of the perennial-losing right in Rennes, the top spot, but they wanted to give it to the Mayor of Paimpol, Jean-Yves de Chaisemartin, who refused. If I was them, I'd probably run in the Centre since you have Loir-et-Cher in there, and the NC is quite strong in the Centre and could really break 5% (unlike in most other regions). A Michel Hunault candidacy in Pays-de-la-Loire would be funny since he has a huge favourite son effect and he'd probably break 30% in his constituency while barely breaking 1% outside of there.

People like Charles de Courson (Champagne-Ardenne), Rudy Salles (PACA), Stéphane Demilly (Picardie) are more of the Thanks-for-the-spot, but-we'd-rather-run-with-the-UMP genre.

Also, Boutin said she'd run an independent PDC list in Pays de Loire if the UMP doesn't give her enough joke spots. You have to love her overblown ego.


Chaisemartin has switched to the Parti Radical... yes the "real" one, the Borloo one... if only all the MoDem little barons could do the same ;)

And, no, it's not Boutin's ego in this case, it's really a constant humiliation of Catholic right by Sarkozy, Morano, Hortefeux. And, well, for the PCD, there's only IdF, Pays de la Loire et Rhône-Alpes. Elsewhere ? they are really ZERO.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 23, 2009, 09:03:01 PM
Corse (Ifop)

UMP 29%
PNC 17%
PRG-Giacobbi 13%
PRG-Zuccarelli 11%
CSD-Renucci 11%
PCF 6%
Nationalists 4%
FN 4%
EXG 1%

2004 results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#Corse

Look at the runoff results: more indicative

(yay, boasting my Wikipedia masterpieces).

Rocca Serra/Santini administration:

Satisfied 49%
Dissatisfied 46%

37% favour a left-right centralist alliance, 35% favour a left-nationalist alliance, 25% favour a right-nationalist alliance

Obviously, a lot depend on the post-election alliances (the 'third round'), especially with the left's shenanigans. Zuccarelli seems to have shat on his past principles and is now open to a deal with the PNC (moderate autonomists-support the Greenies nationally) for forming a coalition, not sure if he wants to work with his sworn enemy Giacobbi. Renucci will also be a bigger fact in 2010 than in 2004 it seems, as will the regionalists (21% - not far from the Greens' result in the Euros - which is quite high and shows a general upswing for the Corsican regionalists). Unlike in 2004, the threshold for the runoff will be 7% (and not 5%), so the PCF falls short. Overall, I think I'd be putting cash on a left-wing gain in Corse. lol.



But, nobody cares, the Most Important Region has a poll. STOP THE PRESSES BRING OUT THE CHILDREN

Ile-de-France (Ifop for DLR)

Notoriety highlights: the surprising is that Duflot has 62% not knowing her... the breakdowns of notoriety are also interesting (young, workers, poorer suburban really don't know her)

NC-Santini list:

UMP 30%
PS 19%
Greens 15%
MoDem 8%
PCF-PG 7%
FN 6.5%
NC 6%
NPA 5%
DLR 3.5%

UMP-NC common list:

UMP 32.5% (+2.5)
PS 19%
Greens 16% (+1)
MoDem 10% (+2)
PCF-PG 7%
FN 7% (+0.5)
NPA 5%
DLR 3.5%

2004 results: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#.C3.8Ele-de-France

RUNOFF POLLS DUMBASS


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 24, 2009, 05:26:36 AM
Christ, the PS are doing badly. There's really no excuse for numbers like that when you're in opposition...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 24, 2009, 07:08:49 AM
Christ, the PS are doing badly. There's really no excuse for numbers like that when you're in opposition...

Well, you know the PS. But the left is doing extremely well.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on October 24, 2009, 07:43:15 AM
Even if Jean Sarkozy withdrew from the presidential office of the EPAD, the harm is done.
I think the right is now down for the remaining 2 and a half years of Sarkozy's mandate.

The only way for him to be reelected is a continuing division of the left and the centre-left.

And IdF polls, which are indeed good for the left globally speaking, are bad for it in the details: no prevailing party, a weak but not at all dead MoDem,  a divided but strong far-left...

In the regional elections, it will be bad for the right in the second round (even though there can be surprises: remember what I've said on Languedoc-Roussillon ? ;)). But in a presidential election, it may still work for the right...
Not that I hope this, because I think that if Sarkozy is reelected, he will fall asleep "à la Chirac" and that it would be very bad in 2017.

Anyway, the most interesting thing in this poll is to see that, even in IdF, a small centre-right list is a GOOD thing for the right, as it steals votes from the MoDem and the Greens.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 24, 2009, 07:58:46 AM
I also note the strong showing of the FN here: up quite a bit from the FN's 4-5% showing in IdF here in the Euros, probably a bit of the right-wing discontent vote showing up after the EPAD affair, Mitterrand affair.

The runoff will be bad for the right, it will probably lose Corse, and it will maybe only gain Champagne-Ardenne and maybe PdL (and Languedoc-Roussillon, lol, if the left is divided even in the runoff). If it continues to go sour for the right, then PdL and Languedoc-Roussillon probably go out of reach, Champagne-Ardenne gets harder... imagine if France was red once again except Alsace (no Corse)!?

Anyways, France is really screwed over in all ways.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on October 24, 2009, 12:55:09 PM
Christ, the PS are doing badly. There's really no excuse for numbers like that when you're in opposition...

Well, you know the PS. But the left is doing extremely well.

Well, yes. But you shouldn't be seeing this sort of left-fragmentation when the left is in opposition. Oh, but it's not a surprise. I think the PS just take matters to their logical conclusion and rename themselves SFIO.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on October 29, 2009, 06:03:56 PM
A new OpinionWay poll  (http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/Barom%E8tre%20OpinionWay%20Fiducial%20des%20%E9lections%20r%E9gionales_vague2.pdf)

UMP 30% (-2)
PS 21% (+2)
Greens 15% (-1)
FN 9% (+3)
MoDem 6% (-1)
FG 6% (-2)
NPA 5% (=)
AEI 3% (new)
NC 3% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)

It is rather interesting to see the effects of the Epad affair...



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 29, 2009, 07:15:03 PM
UMP 30% (-2)
PS 21% (+2)
Greens 15% (-1)
FN 9% (+3)
MoDem 6% (-1)
FG 6% (-2)
NPA 5% (=)
AEI 3% (new)
NC 3% (-1)
Others 2% (-1)

As I would have thought. The EPAD affair seems to hurt the right more than it helps the left, thus the dramatic rise for the FN. Once the whole thing settle down a bit, since people forget these awful things quickly (see: CDPQ in Quebec. People massively pissed at Charest, went all OMG LIBERALS SUCK RESIGN, now the Liberals are comfortably ahead again), I think we'll see the FN go back down to 6-7% and the UMP staying at 30-31%.

I think the Green effect is slowly, slowly fading. Maybe. But I said that in July, August, September, October.

Also, testing the AEI is kinda dumb since I'm not sure that thing will carry through since the main player, Waechter's MEI has concluded a deal with the Greenies in Alsace where MEI-AEI is still a major player in the ecolo field. On a side note, the Green-MEI deal in Alsace helps the Greenies a sh**tload there. Maybe one of their best regions, if not the best (especially if Duflot keeps underperforming, imo, in IDF). And I don't think the AEI will be worth much in other regions anyways, unless there's some major list leader that excites people.

also hidden in that poll is a PACA poll, which now test the Bompard League and Mariani as the UMP top-candidate.

Vauzelle (PS) 31%
Mariani (UMP) 24%
Wisniewski (Greens) 13%
Le Pen (FN) 12%
de Peretti (MoDem) 7%
Miran (MEI) 5%
Coppola (PCF-PG) 4%
Bonnet (LO) 2%
Joshua (NPA) 1%
Bompard (LS) 1%

Vauzelle (PS) 50%
Mariani (UMP) 37%
Le Pen (FN) 13%

Vauzelle (PS) 56%
Mariani (UMP) 44%

2004: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_regional_elections,_2004#Provence-Alpes-C.C3.B4te_d.27Azur


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on October 29, 2009, 08:06:45 PM
Also, the UMP is shooting itself in the foot in Bretagne again. In the primaries, which are turning out to be even more of a joke everyday, Jacques Le Guen, a Villepiniste UMP deputy from the Finistère was the only candidate and pretty much won by default. I said back then that some were talking of the eventuality of the Kremlin dropping him in favour in Bernadette Malgorn, a former regional prefect (who hated freedom and is a HP). That sh**t has come up again, and most of the local structures of the UMP have turned to supporting that witch because they want the favours of the Kremlin, a spot on her list etc. It seems likely that the UMP will now give the top spot on the list to Malgorn, but the final deadline seems to be November 28 (there's a meeting in Paris of the UMP's commission on candidacies/pre-selections on November 2). Anyways, this is all some useless distraction since the UMP will lose in a landslide and also I myself am supporting Jean Yves Le Drian over whichever HP the UMP chooses.

Also, the UMP candidate in Auvergne is Alain Marleix, Thierry Mariani in PACA and obviously Philippe Richert in Alsace. Louis Molinié in Guadeloupe, Chantal Maignan in Martinique and Léon Bertrand in Guyane. Didier Robert in Reunion.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 08, 2009, 01:43:50 PM
Race ratings:

()

Notes:

Alsace: The Greenies cited an internal with some rather low UMP numbers (and low Green numbers too, mind you). If all sh**t hits the fan, then I fear to imagine what happens here.
Basse-Normandie: imo, the best rating the right can hope for here is 'tossup'. Waiting for polls.
Champagne-Ardenne: I was extremely optimistic for the UMP here, but there haven't been any polls so we could be surprised. Though I doubt it could really go any lower than tossup.
IDF: I don't put much stock into UMP internals showing Pecresse almost tied with Huchon and ahead of Duflot, nor do I think Sarkozy's strategy of Cabinet Minister-packing is a good idea because being a cabinet minister isn't an advantage and he/she's changing the race into a referendum on Sarkozy which isn't good for the right.
Languedoc-Roussillon: Frêche doing slightly better in polls, Couderc much worse. Probably the effects of EPAD.
PACA: Mariani is an awful candidate. Might be too generous, but that OpinionWay poll here was absolute sh**t for the right.
Pays de Loire: imo, the best rating the right can hope for here is 'tossup'. Waiting for polls.
Rhone-Alpes: Nothing will happen.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on November 08, 2009, 02:06:36 PM
And Corse is tossup because Corse is always tossup?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 08, 2009, 02:43:44 PM
And Corse is tossup because Corse is always tossup?

Corse is tossup, aside for the reasons I already explained, because the outcome will be decided in the so-called third round.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on November 09, 2009, 09:25:30 AM
Hmm, I tend to think regional elections are really a kind of bastard (hybrid) stuff, they are still quite new, and haven't really found their place and their identity by today, and anyways they will be made upside down if when the territorial reform will pass.

What I mean is that i tend to think that people here first vote for a party, second for a list of people/head of list, to decide their vote i mean. So, the political context of each party would matter more than who or who is candidate here or there, which still counts ultimately.

Other than that, i think the biggest unknown is the FN, if the father rules the campaign it won't make a lot of change, but if the daughter rules, as a plain chief, that would be a bit different.

Speaking about FN in general, when the daughter will be the real new chief, it will be an actual second blow for the FN, she will wipe out all the obscure guys of the FN passioned by the darknesses of History, just keeping a few that will remain nice with her (if there are some), and mainly surround herself with young smiling populists, Steve Briois style.

I'm following her in media recently, that's quite interesting. She will really wipe out all the former darkness of FN, and make a new rightist populist up that she sums up by: 'mondialistes' (globalist, all the mainstream political class) vs. 'nationaux' (nationals, them) (seems she pays attention not to say 'nationalistes'), that simple, the message is clear and sexy. And the way she speaks can really touch people, she really use a popular rhetoric and popular arguments, that you can often hear in mouths of people, and she makes things quite clear about racism. Plus, she really is pretty good in debates, all of this really uses to destabilize journalists and people who face her, they still try to take her through the father prism, fails.

Concretely I don't think she can electorally earn a lot, i think what she can say can touch people but not enough to give FN some big responsibilities (though, something better than before for them I think), but I think she can actually feed the debate, and become something electorally important for the mainstream right, something to deal with...

The French political shaker who began in 2007 hasn't finished to shake...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 19, 2009, 08:36:11 PM
Kinda unrelated, but something interesting I noticed. It also applies to the UMP's hopes in Lorraine (some in the UMP say they might regain it).

Moselle European elections;
M. Joseph DAUL (LMAJ)   61 440    25,52

Meurthe-et-Moselle European elections;
M. Joseph DAUL (LMAJ)   45 660    25,19

The Gandrange effect!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 20, 2009, 11:19:17 AM
There will be no NC autonomous list in IdF: Pecresse has finalized a deal with Santini which gives him - and not Karoutchi - the top spot in the 92. The top spot in the 94 should go the NC Mayor of Vincennes Laurent Lafon. The NC also wants to give some economist of theirs the second spot in Paris behind Jouanno, but the UMP unanimously supports Pierre-Yves Bournazel, a municipal councillor for the 18th arrdt.

Here's an article providing info on most if not all of the cabinet members who are running: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/11/30/01002-20091130ARTFIG00053-regionales-les-ministres-sur-le-front-.php

It also gives a good impression of the internal workings of the CPSU UMP.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on November 20, 2009, 11:25:54 AM
There will be no NC autonomous list in IdF: Pecresse has finalized a deal with Santini which gives him - and not Karoutchi - the top spot in the 92. The top spot in the 94 should go the NC Mayor of Vincennes Laurent Lafon. The NC also wants to give some economist of theirs the second spot in Paris behind Jouanno, but the UMP unanimously supports Pierre-Yves Bournazel, a municipal councillor for the 18th arrdt.

Here's an article providing info on most if not all of the cabinet members who are running: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/11/30/01002-20091130ARTFIG00053-regionales-les-ministres-sur-le-front-.php

It also gives a good impression of the internal workings of the CPSU UMP.

The more they make unique lists in the first run, the more it weaken them i think. Thinking that abstention could play an actual role in our context, it's better to have several voices on one wing than only one in order to make people come on your wing (by wing i mean right or left).

These elections are really a big interrogation mark for me by today. Everything depending of first, abstention, second, Greens. MoDem could be crushed, but anyways, MoDem Bayrou doesn't care of it since it's only a man for an election...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 20, 2009, 11:44:34 AM
NC-UMP or NC, UMP doesn't matter. The UMP is worth around 27-32% nationally, the NC is worth 2-4%. The UMP has no reserves except weak and shaky reserves on the far-right, and in key regions like Champagne-Ardenne or PACA where the FN makes the runoff, they have no reserves. I've already made it clear that abstention is not as big of an issue as in the Euros, since it's always above 50%.

I don't see why the interrogation mark. It's rather obvious the left will win the runoffs. I feel the Greenies, who have been acting like stupid snobs and sprouting "WE WILL WIN ALL ZE ELECTIONZ NAUGHW", will have a rather cold shower compared to the Euros. And I have a hard time seeing the Greenies being snobby and maintaining their qualified lists in runoffs against UMP and PS, since it would entail UMP victories in places they shouldn't win and it will harm them politically to act as 'UMP-victory makers'. I think they'll pragmatically drop their OMGZ WE WILL WIN ELECTIONZ dogma between the two rounds.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on November 20, 2009, 12:05:18 PM
NC-UMP or NC, UMP doesn't matter. The UMP is worth around 27-32% nationally, the NC is worth 2-4%. The UMP has no reserves except weak and shaky reserves on the far-right, and in key regions like Champagne-Ardenne or PACA where the FN makes the runoff, they have no reserves. I've already made it clear that abstention is not as big of an issue as in the Euros, since it's always above 50%.

Hmm, no matter what could be the actual electoral reserves. The more you have voices on your wing, the more you can gather people on your wing, and that's better to play with in the 2 run election. The more you have voices to campaign in the first run, the more they can give you strength in the second run. It's more a question of making exist a big wing than of collecting the potential of each party. In order to make people come to vote.

Here only the UMP will express itself for its wing, Hunters, Fans of the clown, and NC have been already eaten. Less voices will campaign, mainly one point of view will be expressed, then appealing less people to vote. The UMP is already playing as if it was a second run, that may be not very smart.

For abstention, what's going on here is clearly seen as rather pathetic in the whole political class, and the resentment step by step becoming some resignation about this bad show, and about the global social situation. Abstention could be pretty high, and on the UMP side too, that's also why the interrogation mark.

The interrogation mark also for Greens then. Still because we don't know the different aspects of this possibly high abstention.

And, no matter if they come out first or not here or there, they will play the coalition in the 2nd run, in short this is PS-Greens against UMP alone, they are not in this attitude of we will eat the left, they are ambitious but remain ready to be pragmatic to make win the left i think.

They are sexy, especially in IdF, but remain some kids, which is not necessarily appealing too. Once again, if the context stay normal, abstention could be high, and maybe not the same abstention as during the euros...



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 20, 2009, 05:42:01 PM
Hmm, no matter what could be the actual electoral reserves. The more you have voices on your wing, the more you can gather people on your wing, and that's better to play with in the 2 run election. The more you have voices to campaign in the first run, the more they can give you strength in the second run. It's more a question of making exist a big wing than of collecting the potential of each party. In order to make people come to vote.

Perhaps, and in some cases it works. However, having your side split between parties or candidates in the first round can open you up to arch-nemesis candidates who want to kill each other, making a reconciliation impossible despite controlling a theoretical majority... the examples of such fraternal fights are countless.

Quote
Here only the UMP will express itself for its wing, Hunters, Fans of the clown, and NC have been already eaten. Less voices will campaign, mainly one point of view will be expressed, then appealing less people to vote. The UMP is already playing as if it was a second run, that may be not very smart.

Well, I disagree with 'eaten'. CPNT, MPF (generally) and the NC were always irrelevant in the wide realm of things. Anyways.

I have said many times the UMP is now the Party of the Majority. If you approve of Sarkozy, you vote UMP. Not Party X or Party Y, you vote UMP. For better or for worse, Sarkozy and the UMP have federated the supporters of the majority into one strong party, something never seen before - to that extent at least.
Quote
For abstention, what's going on here is clearly seen as rather pathetic in the whole political class, and the resentment step by step becoming some resignation about this bad show, and about the global social situation. Abstention could be pretty high, and on the UMP side too, that's also why the interrogation mark.

I have a hard time believing the talk of abstention above 50% partly because no such thing has ever happened before in local elections (except for the 1988 cantonals, special case), because these elections often have large personal votes going on, because of attachment to regions and an understanding of institutions.

I think, however, that if I catch your drift correctly, the UMP should worry about abstention. The EPAD affair affected the right much more than the left, since the left never liked Sarkozy. They should worry about their base voting FN or abstaining, yes.
Quote
The interrogation mark also for Greens then. Still because we don't know the different aspects of this possibly high abstention.

Well, I probably misinterpreted your statement, my apologies. There is no question in my mind about the general outcome; the left wins ala 2004. However, yes, there are questions concerning the particular result of the Greenies, MoDem, FN and also PCF.  Especially the Greenies and FN, for me.
Quote
They are sexy, especially in IdF, but remain some kids, which is not necessarily appealing too. Once again, if the context stay normal, abstention could be high, and maybe not the same abstention as during the euros...

Well, polls have been showing them less sexy than predicted in IdF...



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on November 20, 2009, 06:00:00 PM
I think, however, that if I catch your drift correctly, the UMP should worry about abstention. The EPAD affair affected the right much more than the left, since the left never liked Sarkozy. They should worry about their base voting FN or abstaining, yes.

Well, that's my main point, the aspects of the abstention, which yes, according to what happened for the right this autumn could be different than during the euros. Then, yes, more than 50% wold be a big surprise and i hadn't that in mind personally, 55% (of turnout) can be enough for me to speak about an high abstention, and as far as today i wouldn't find such a figure ridiculous.

Well, polls have been showing them less sexy than predicted in IdF...

Ah? As I said it wouldn't surprise me anyways.

Then, on the global aspect of this election, actually what you say works pretty much for municipals, if it was about municipals i wouldn't speak that much of abstention. Regionals are still seen, imo, as a kind of "more close than euros elections". Stuffs are still decided in Paris, and, frankly most people don't give a s**t to how it globally work between régions and départements. France is a country of: Président-Députés-Préfets-Maires, the rest is, vague...

Though, yes, the importance of régions are growing but still it remains very vague, plus the territorial reform won't help to remove this sentiment.

Something that to me, in a global context of resentment/resignation/misunderstanding, recently pushed by people to which French are attached, mayors (congress of mayors) would contribute not to make grow the turn out.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 20, 2009, 10:01:48 PM
November tracker by OpinionWay for Figaro/LCI (ze right-wingz conspiracees!) shows that the UMP is in sh**t.

UMP 29% (-1)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 16% (+1)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 7% (+1)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)

Others, most notably the NPA and AEI are not mentioned.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2009/11/20/regionales-les-listes-de-gauche-devanceraient-celles-de-droite_1270099_823448.html

More once OpinionWay actually publishes this poll


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on November 21, 2009, 06:19:32 AM
more...

NPA: 4 % -1
NC: 2 % -1
Alliance ecologique indépendante: -1

did not express: 30 %
turnout: 56 %

Not good for Sarkozy but Presidential election is very diiferent than regional election. Even a big ump loss, sarkozy will stay the favorite in 2012.

In fact, regional elections will be like midterms in USA: a vote sanction.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on November 21, 2009, 06:31:32 AM
Rhone Alpes (Opinion way)

LO: 2 %
NPA: 3 %
Front de gauche: 5%

PS: 24 %
green: 16 %

Modem: 8%

Alliance Ecologie indépendante: 4%

UMP: 28 %

FN: 10 %

did not express: 23 %

second tour:

PS: 49 %
UMP: 39
FN: 12 %

or

PS: 58 %
UMP: 42 %
FN: 12 %
turnout: 56%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 21, 2009, 07:14:30 AM
OpinionWay Rhone-Alpes (change on last poll in region - TNS-Sofres in Sept 2009)

Grossetête (UMP) 28% (-3%)
Queyranne (PS) 24% (-1%)
Meirieu (Greens) 16% (-4%)
Gollnisch (FN) 10% (+2%)
Begag (MoDem) 8% (nc)
Vieux-Marcaud (PCF) 5%
AEI 4%
Combet (NPA) 3%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Queyranne (PS) 49%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%
Gollnisch (FN) 12%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Compared to 2004, the UMP remains at or ony slightly above the UMP's runoff level (38%), while Queyranne improves from his results (47%), it seems he's benefiting from the FN's drop, though it's obviously caused by a lot more than that.

more...
NPA: 4 % -1
NC: 2 % -1
Alliance ecologique indépendante: -1

AEI loses 1%, but is at 2%.
Others is 3%

I don't know why they're polling AEI, since it's not sure they'll even run everywhere. Maybe only PACA, Languedoc-Roussillon... and I suppose the Greenies will do their best to prevent them from running, especially in Languedoc-Roussillon where they're preventing the Greenies from breaking 10% according to an old BVA poll.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 21, 2009, 09:20:40 AM
November tracker by OpinionWay for Figaro/LCI (ze right-wingz conspiracees!) shows that the UMP is in sh**t.

UMP 29% (-1)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 16% (+1)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 7% (+1)
PCF-PG 6% (nc)

Others, most notably the NPA and AEI are not mentioned.

http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2009/11/20/regionales-les-listes-de-gauche-devanceraient-celles-de-droite_1270099_823448.html

More once OpinionWay actually publishes this poll

FTR, here are the 2004 first round national results

Left 39%
Right + CPNT 36%
EXD 16%
EXG 5%
Ecolo 2%
Others 3%

and now...

Left 44% (+5)
Right 31% (-5)
EXD 9% (-7)
Centre 7% (+7)
EXG 4% (-1)
Ecolo 2% (nc)
Others 3% (nc)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on November 21, 2009, 12:22:25 PM
In fact, regional elections will be like midterms in USA: a vote sanction.

Well, if we come with the turnout expressed in the polls which joins the number i had given (about 55%) it will be a sanction vote for the whole political class.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 24, 2009, 05:38:01 PM
Queyranne (PS) 49%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%
Gollnisch (FN) 12%

Queyranne (PS) 58%
Grossetête (UMP) 42%

Interesting cross tabs:

In a direct runoff between PS and UMP, FN voters split 56-44 for Queyranne, while MoDem voters 55-45 favour the UMP. It seems that most of the current FN vote is a real protest vote, not much of an ideological one, meaning that its voters favour the opposition in a race between Government and Opposition. The MoDem split is weird, either a result of ed up crosstabs or a right-lean in MoDem voters in the region. I mean, who votes for a Sarko-hater like Begag in the first round but votes for the Party of Sarkozy in the runoff?

It will be interesting to see if the FN's crosstabs are observed outside the region, to make sure its a national trend, and if so then it might ironically mean the UMP will actually want the FN to make the runoff in places like Champagne-Ardenne or Alsace.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 26, 2009, 09:10:28 PM
It seems as if Alain Dolium, random black guy, will be the MoDem's top candidate in Ile-de-France. Most media coverage so far has been OMG HES BLACK OMGZ OBAMA.

Being black might yield a small bonus, as I do recall Taubira did best (in metro France) in immigrant-heavy areas of the 93 and 95 in 2002. That means max 7-9% instead of like 2% nationally. I doubt Dolium will yield much, in that I have hope that most voters will be able to vote on issues rather than OMG HES A BLACK.

I also recommend watching the Guignols' Nov 26 show. Bayrou and Dolium together. Hysterically funny.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on November 27, 2009, 03:43:36 AM
Well, it seems as if Champagne-Ardenne won't be won by the UMP either.

When you're at less than 30% nationally, when you're busy erasing any other rightist party in the first round (no MPF, no NC, no PCD, no Alliance centriste list, etc), when the FN is able to make it to the 2nd round in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne, Lorraine, Franche-Comté, Rhône-Alpes, Languedoc-Roussillon, PACA, maybe even in Bourgogne, Centre and Haute-Normandie,
everything is lost.

Will the UMP be able to save Alsace ? I think so, even with an FN in the 2nd round.
But that's all.

The interesting question now: will Sarkozy be really contested AFTER the regionals ?
Because his remaining power on the entire right is that he was so-called election-winner.
Some doubts emerged in 2008 (municipal elections), but the presidential polls (yes....) have been enough to silence those doubts.

But in the middle of 2010, with a DSK on the rise (and maybe, one day, a Hollande on the rise or weird polls with Cohn-Bendit beating Sarkozy in the 2nd round) and many in the MoDem ready to switch to the left, Sarkozy won't be any longer the saviour of the right.

Prepare for some interesting internal fights.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on November 27, 2009, 10:00:19 AM
It seems as if Alain Dolium, random black guy, will be the MoDem's top candidate in Ile-de-France. Most media coverage so far has been OMG HES BLACK OMGZ OBAMA.

Being black might yield a small bonus, as I do recall Taubira did best (in metro France) in immigrant-heavy areas of the 93 and 95 in 2002. That means max 7-9% instead of like 2% nationally. I doubt Dolium will yield much, in that I have hope that most voters will be able to vote on issues rather than OMG HES A BLACK.

I also recommend watching the Guignols' Nov 26 show. Bayrou and Dolium together. Hysterically funny.

Oh, so his momentum is beginning now, seems "A vous de juger" would have made him on. Well, as i said in FGD, outside of the fact he is black, he doesn't seem bad, but not exceptional at all, less good than Harry Roselmack. Though, we can't reproach him to be black now, we can reproach to the media to turn kinda craze (well, gently craze, it is not upside down) because he's black though, yes.

Anyways, seems that IdF (Paris then) gets all the focus of these regionals...haha...C'est la France...!

Oh, and, Fabien, you still believe in a come back of DSK?? sweet naïveté.....;)

You're right by saying that one of things that helped to unify our right is the 'election winner', but it's not enough for me to be contested, he still holds it, though less and less and no more to appear as the strong stuff it could appear as before.

Oh, and, Cohn Bendit to run is to forget too........;)

As I said the biggest internal fight, well, as all what i say here imo, will be Franky vs. Ségolène in the primaries, and in this one yes, there will be blood.

Personally I keep thinking the card of international affairs could have a lot of importance for Sarkozy. He clearly knows he earned an ascendant on Obama in the last UN congress, he can really play on that board.

And if ever Sarkozy is no more seen as the chief, then the UMP will be doomed, and for a long time.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on November 27, 2009, 10:27:34 AM
I haven't said that DSK or Cohn-Bendit will be candidates.
Just that polls testing their names and finding they're beating Sarkozy will have a large impact on the right. Why self-censorship if your "saviour" isn't able to win elections again ?

These regionals, as they seem to turn, may be a HUGE defeat for the right:
- FN on the rise again, but with a blue-collar and protest vote (so very difficult now to gain in the 2nd round)
- Greens big (and Greens are strongly on the left, whatever some voters think) but not threatening the PS, bigger
- MoDem not dead
- mainstream right lower than 30%, i.e. in Chirac-Raffarin-Villepin waters...

All those who have forced themselves to keep quiet will feel allowed to fire at the Dear Leader.
I just hope Villepin won't be the one who will benefit from this, that would be outrageous.
I know that, unfortunately, Juppé is forever doomed. Barnier has gone now, Fillon isn't ambitious enough, Woerth is unknown and too straight.
If it's Copé or Baroin or even Borloo, so be it.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on November 27, 2009, 10:49:03 AM
I'm still always surprised that you keep speaking of Borloo, that guy hasn't a chance of being a leader of something big, well imo.

Anyways, remains 3, you cited all of them: Villepin, Copé, Barouin.

Copé, well, too weak, he can't create a leadership, he's just a wonderful speaker, doesn't go further.

Barouin, eh, he can be strong, ha always had distance with sarkozy, he appears has someone who wonders before speaking, he's calm, he could create some leadership. But he will seriously has to remove from his face this: "i will suicide myself tomorrow". Well, to me he seems disillusioned, and that's weaken him and personally i don't really see him coming back within the years that come. Plus, he's part ol' reasonable politicians, he is not enough excited/egomaniac for today's politics.

Villepin, the only one that could do something i think, but, if ever, i don't think it would go very very far, if ever he succeeds in something, he wouldn't make a lot of success i think.

Nah, your camp is doomed, it's Sarkozy or nothing. ;D. And as I keep saying I think sarkozy has still cards.

People are entertaining themselves polls about trendy guys like DSK, but step by step we will enter in the real primaries, and the fights will actually begin, and Franky will be on here. Well, and for the right, couldn't be bad, this fight of Franky against Ségolène could divert the media attention from the right.

I'm not able to analyze an election in terms of regional borders, i just know the mainlines about it, i can just analyze it in terms of national trends, and as i said i think it can be relevant since people don't really have a clue of these régionales/départementales institutions and then vote mainly for a party than for a figurehead, except maybe in IdF, which is the spot of the main figureheads globally.

In terms of national trends as far as today i'd say:

- Yes, an FN a bit growing, but not necessarily very big, they are still in transition.
- Greens, yes, can be big, but mainly because of abstention i think, and personally i think that they are no more that much on the left the Voynet/Lipietz/Mamerre period is out now, it is Cohn Bendit Bros/Duflot (and this shift is good!!), they are far more pragmatic, and they are on the Modem ground, clearly.
- Only chance of Modem is to be close of Greens
- Mainstream right will suffer but there could abstention from the PS too, so, on the national scale that may be not so bad.
- PS is bad and bad and bad, as said above they could provoke a lot of abstention on their wing.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 28, 2009, 02:29:47 PM
News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on November 28, 2009, 05:27:39 PM
News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ;)) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on November 28, 2009, 08:28:37 PM
News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ;)) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...


There was some concern in the UDB about Hascoet being a kinda carpetbagger, but you know the UDB, they're stupid idiots and their tongue is stuck to the Green Party's ass.

Well, Bruno Joncour will be the MoDem candidate, but many centrists are saying he'll just endorse the PS in the runoff. Ironically, since he has a right-wing governing majority in Saint-Brieuc.

The NC has Loick Le Brun, but I suppose they are still trying to get a better candidate quality than Perennial Election Loser. Sadly, some NC municipal councillor will be the UMP's top candidate in the 22.

Thierry Benoit has said he supports a vast alliance from the moderate right to the moderate left including the AC, NC and so forth.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on November 29, 2009, 02:50:05 PM
News in Bretagne:

Bernadette Malgorn, the Sarkozy-loving fascist has ripped the top candidacy of the UMP off from Le Guen, the Villepiniste. The UMP does all it can to lose by a wide margin.

Christian Troadec, a leftie regionalist councillor and Mayor of Carhaix, who broke with the UDB/PS over a local hospital issue will run independently as a regionalist. He will do better than the Greenies' sidekick could ever dream of doing.

The Greenies and their sidekick, the stupid little UDB, will run together again. The Green top candidate is former Green MP (but not in Bretagne ;)) and cabinet minister Guy Hascoet.

I personally hope that the NC will run a list, so that I will be able not to vote for this stupid UMP...


There was some concern in the UDB about Hascoet being a kinda carpetbagger, but you know the UDB, they're stupid idiots and their tongue is stuck to the Green Party's ass.

Well, Bruno Joncour will be the MoDem candidate, but many centrists are saying he'll just endorse the PS in the runoff. Ironically, since he has a right-wing governing majority in Saint-Brieuc.

The NC has Loick Le Brun, but I suppose they are still trying to get a better candidate quality than Perennial Election Loser. Sadly, some NC municipal councillor will be the UMP's top candidate in the 22.

Thierry Benoit has said he supports a vast alliance from the moderate right to the moderate left including the AC, NC and so forth.

In fact, the NC and the AC are waiting for the UMP... But it seems that in Ille-et-Vilaine, Dominique de Legge wants to be nr 1 on the list and not let an NC take the lead.
I hope they will end their "negotiations" before the deadline to declare candidacies ;).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 02, 2009, 11:24:33 AM
DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.



An internal poll for the UMP by OpinionWay (October, though) in Picardie has been reported by Le Courier Picard:

Numbers reported are:

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 21%
Porquier (Greens) 16%

Gremetz (Stalinist) is at around 10%, numbers for FN are not known. Only the right and Gremetz seem to take this poll seriously.

The runoff is apparently 50/50, which I have a hard time believing. Toss this crap.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 02, 2009, 11:30:31 AM
DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 02, 2009, 11:49:37 AM
DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

I'm not saying DLR will win 5% or that they're a major benefitor of protest voters, but 1% is 1% especially when a party they may take some votes from is between 9% and 10%. He obviously won't win anything or break 5% in any places that are relevant, but I think his effect will be interesting when it comes to the FN's ability to break the threshold.

After all, we all underestimated DLR in June. I never thought they'd win more than 1% or so, and they won 1.8% and even 2% excluding Ouest where they didn't print ballots.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on December 02, 2009, 11:51:53 AM
UMP landslide.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 02, 2009, 11:53:57 AM
DLR has announced it's running in 12 regions, and NDA is running in IdF himself.

DLR won 1.77% in the Euros, a relatively good showing for a joke party whose political base is limited to one town in Essonne.

With the rise of right-wing discontent with the UMP since the EPAD/Mitterrand scandals, I would personally suspect the DLR has made some gains and I suspect their presence in March 2010 will hurt the UMP a bit, but most notably the FN who has undoubtedly taken a number of UMP supporters after EPAD/Mitterrand. And since the FN is hanging just below the crucial 10% line nationally, and in many regions likewise, the DLR ripping off a few votes from the FN could prevent the FN from reaching the 10% line.

FTR, a poll by IFOP in IdF had the DLR at 3.5%, the party won 2.4% in the Euros in the region.

Very very few votes more for him maybe yes, but very few. This guy is by no means a figurehead of protestation, he really has the image of an exciting cute baby. People wouldn't go on him for protestation i think, such a guy can just earn something in a normal situation when people feel free to pick up their best choice like in a supermarket, which isn't the situation at all here, we certainly will be in protestation/abstention/straight adhesion by habit.

I'm not saying DLR will win 5% or that they're a major benefitor of protest voters, but 1% is 1% especially when a party they may take some votes from is between 9% and 10%. He obviously won't win anything or break 5% in any places that are relevant, but I think his effect will be interesting when it comes to the FN's ability to break the threshold.

After all, we all underestimated DLR in June. I never thought they'd win more than 1% or so, and they won 1.8% and even 2% excluding Ouest where they didn't print ballots.

Well, during Euros, people can vote for such a guy by adhesion. In this election I don't see it being possible. What you say about is interesting to be said, but if we talk about foreseeing about him, I wouldn't be surprised if he did less than Euros, for the reasons i already mentioned.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on December 02, 2009, 11:56:04 AM



An internal poll for the UMP by OpinionWay (October, though) in Picardie has been reported by Le Courier Picard:

Numbers reported are:

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 21%
Porquier (Greens) 16%

Gremetz (Stalinist) is at around 10%, numbers for FN are not known. Only the right and Gremetz seem to take this poll seriously.

The runoff is apparently 50/50, which I have a hard time believing. Toss this crap.


Cayeux isn't a bad candidate, that's true (especially if you compare her to dull Gewerc...), but it's not enough.
And with the real risk of a FN above 10%, the UMP is of course in very bad shape in Picardie too.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on December 02, 2009, 02:03:10 PM
Corse ifop poll

communists: 12 % (+6)

left (one list): 22 % (in former poll, there were 3 left lists with a total of 35 %)

Modem: 5 %

UMP: 26 % (-3)
FN: 8 % (+4)

nationalists: 16 % (-1)

independents: 7 % (+3)

this poll is not very clear to say the least...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 02, 2009, 04:23:42 PM
Corse ifop poll

communists: 12 % (+6)

left (one list): 22 % (in former poll, there were 3 left lists with a total of 35 %)

Modem: 5 %

UMP: 26 % (-3)
FN: 8 % (+4)

nationalists: 16 % (-1)

independents: 7 % (+3)

this poll is not very clear to say the least...

Junk poll.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 03, 2009, 09:13:02 PM
IFOP national poll (Nov 19-20)

UMP 27%
PS 21%
Greens 15%
FN 8%
PCF-PG 7%
MoDem 6%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
NC 3%
LO 2%
Others 4%

As of the OpinionWay poll, the national 'rapport de forces' was Left 44, Right 31, EXD 9, Centre 7, EXG 4, ecolo 2 and others 3.

Now, the IFOP poll's 'rapport de forces' is Left 43, Right 30, EXD 8, EXG 6, Centre 6, ecolo 3, others 4.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Alexander Hamilton on December 03, 2009, 09:51:13 PM
UMP forever!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 04, 2009, 09:42:38 AM
Time for a shocking poll, a CSA poll in Midi-Pyrénées.

Malvy (PS) 39%
Barèges (UMP) 25%
Onesta (Greens) 17%
Vieu (PCF-PG) 5%
Rochefort (MoDem) 5%
Aliot (FN) 5%
Martin (NPA) 2%
Torremocha (LO) 2%
Abstention 39%

Note that they've used hypothetical names for the PCF, MoDem, FN, NPA and LO top candidates. Neither Aliot and Rochefort, high profile names for their respective parties, will be top candidates. The FN has nominated Frédéric Cabrolier, regional councillor; and the MoDem has nominated Arnaud Lafon, Mayor of Castanet-Tolosan (suburb of Toulouse).

Malvy (PS) 50%
Barèges (UMP) 30%
Onesta (Greens-MoDem) 20%
Abstention 37%

Malvy (PS) 69%
Barèges (UMP) 31%
Abstention 37%

In 2004, Malvy took 42% by the first round against 19% for the UMP, 10% for the UDF, 12% for the FN, 8% for the Greens, 5% for LO-LCR and 5% for CPNT. He won the runoff 58-30-12.

On these numbers here, the PS winning Limousin by the first round is not impossible and breaking 70% in the runoff there will be a piece of cake.

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2009/12/04/729923-Regionales-Martin-Malvy-le-premier-sondage-CSA-le-donne-favori.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 04, 2009, 09:54:59 AM
Time for a shocking poll, a CSA poll in Midi-Pyrénées.

Malvy (PS) 39%
Barèges (UMP) 25%
Onesta (Greens) 17%
Vieu (PCF-PG) 5%
Rochefort (MoDem) 5%
Aliot (FN) 5%
Martin (NPA) 2%
Torremocha (LO) 2%
Abstention 39%

Note that they've used hypothetical names for the PCF, MoDem, FN, NPA and LO top candidates. Neither Aliot and Rochefort, high profile names for their respective parties, will be top candidates. The FN has nominated Frédéric Cabrolier, regional councillor; and the MoDem has nominated Arnaud Lafon, Mayor of Castanet-Tolosan (suburb of Toulouse).

Malvy (PS) 50%
Barèges (UMP) 30%
Onesta (Greens-MoDem) 20%
Abstention 37%

Malvy (PS) 69%
Barèges (UMP) 31%
Abstention 37%

In 2004, Malvy took 42% by the first round against 19% for the UMP, 10% for the UDF, 12% for the FN, 8% for the Greens, 5% for LO-LCR and 5% for CPNT. He won the runoff 58-30-12.

On these numbers here, the PS winning Limousin by the first round is not impossible and breaking 70% in the runoff there will be a piece of cake.

http://www.ladepeche.fr/article/2009/12/04/729923-Regionales-Martin-Malvy-le-premier-sondage-CSA-le-donne-favori.html

Well, yes, Midi-Pyrénées and Limousin won't be tough battle, sure.

Especially Limousin, yes, this is so sweet there, people are spontaneously pragmatically sweetly leftist there, and rather constructive. That are not some excited, and/or guys that do that in reaction or because they feel they have to follow a line. That's a  kind of spontaneous ambiance there, that's pretty pleasant. Well, except maybe in the Brive's area in which I lived the most time, which has a kind of bourgeois mentality/ambiance, rather rightist, that's the Périgord entry in the Limousin! Not the same ambiance.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 06, 2009, 11:15:48 AM
Viavoice Rhone-Alpes (Oct 30 - Nov 3: revealed on Dec 3). Rather skeptic of this poll.

UMP 26.5%
Greens 22%
PS 20%
FN 8%
MoDem 8%
PCF-PG 7%
LO 5%
NPA 3%
NC 0.5%

http://www.lyoncapitale.fr/lyoncapitale/journal/univers/Politique/Regionales-2010/Sondage-Europe-Ecologie-devant-le-PS

Very doubtful and skeptical of this poll. Sounds like crap to me. The article explains the question was loaded, with no candidate names asked (asking parties instead), referring explicitly to the first round etc. Numbers for LO vs. NPA also seem doubtful, especially since candidate names weren't asked. Also, the NC isn't running.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on December 07, 2009, 03:52:06 AM
There will be many votes wasted for the left in the first round in Brittany, but, well, wouldn't it be an even better candidate for a firs-round win than Limousin ? ;)

We can really ask the question, as there won't be any NC autonomous list (:() and the bad is already done, with Malgorn Nr.1 in the region AND in Finistère, Le Guen ready to have a "mission d'information parlementaire en Afrique"...., Bruno Joncour able to get a good result for the MoDem, Goulard acting against his own camp in Morbihan and de Legge as an unknown and outside candidate for the UMP in Ille-et-Vilaine...

And, back to Ile-de-France, poor Valérie, her career will be stopped...
With the MoDem "gadget", Duflot very punchy and DLR as a protest vote on the right, she will do bad, very bad... And everybody will be affected, Jouanno, Yade, NKM, J.C. Lagarde. Unless they all agree to make Pécresse responsible for that... (Karoutchi, Santini and Sarkozy will be very happy to do just that !)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 07, 2009, 04:39:40 PM
Very doubtful and skeptical of this poll. Sounds like crap to me. The article explains the question was loaded, with no candidate names asked (asking parties instead), referring explicitly to the first round etc. Numbers for LO vs. NPA also seem doubtful, especially since candidate names weren't asked. Also, the NC isn't running.

Each one his analyze, but, one more time, I think names are really less important than parties here, actually. Leaders matters, but not heads of list.

By now, but one more time I think we would see more clear after the new year.

I tend to expect a Green/Pink France on the map.

Though, haven't really tried to put down all elements to make a real analysis yet, but that would be the feeling I have. If abstention on the left and on the right and if a growing FN, then yeah, big Greens. And I think that them taking Paris could be serious, in term of image they beat it all there, IdF's PS is down.

Oh, and, one more beautiful act from Ségolène. She owned Franky. MoDem is already on the way to fail. François, tu t'es fait eu...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 08, 2009, 10:03:35 PM
Senator Jean-Louis Masson (DVD) might run for DLR in Lorraine. He won 6.7% running as a DVD in 2004, and probably hurt Longuet a bit in the runoff. If he runs for DLR, it'd be a nice media coup for them, at least in the region and they might poll more than 2% there.

Also, departmental top candidates for the major parties have come out. Interesting stuff:
Michel Moyrand (PS Mayor of Perigueux, defeated Darcos in 2008) in Dordogne
Bernard Péré in Lot-et-Garonne and Marie Bové in Gironde for Greenies. Péré is a Bovéist, and Marie is Asterix's daughter.
Alain Lamassoure (UMP) MEP in Pyrénées-Atlantiques
Brice Hortefeux (UMP) in Puy-de-Dôme. More of a symbolic candidacy, like his candidacy in the Euros
Henri de Raincourt (UMP) in Yonne
Marylise Lebranchu (PS) in Finistère
Alain Rafesthain (PS) in Cher, former President of the CR until 2004 and current President of the Cher CG
Jean Germain (PS Mayor of Tours) in Indre-et-Loire
Serge Lepeltier (UMP-Radical) in Cher (defeated candidate in primaries to the nut Novelli)
Philippe Vigier (NC) in Eure-et-Loir
Nicolas Perruchot (NC) in Loir-et-Cher
Catherine Soullie (UMP) MEP in Loiret
Benoist Apparu (UMP) in Marne
Étienne Butzbach (MRC) in Belfort
Anne Hidalgo (PS) in Paris. She's a potential candidate to succeed Delanoe in 2014.
Chantal Jouanno (UMP) in Paris
Yves Jégo (UMP-Radical) in Seine-et-Marne
David Douillet (UMP) in Yvelines (second behind Pécresse)
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet (UMP) in Essonne
André Santini (NC) in 92
Gérard Longuet (UMP) in Meuse. Defeated President of the CR in 2004
Sylvia Pinel (PRG) in Tarn-et-Garonne
Gérard Trémège (UMP-Radical) in Hautes-Pyrénées
Philippe Augier (NC) in Calvados. He wanted the top candidacy in the region.
Hervé Morin (NC) in Eure (3rd on list, Le Maire is first)
Antoine Chéreau (MPF Mayor of Montaigu) in Vendée
Henri de Richemont (UMP) in Charente. Sidelined ex-top candidate in the region
Hubert Falco (UMP) in Var
Bernard Deflesselles (UMP) in Bouches-du-Rhône
Gaston Franco (UMP) in Alpes-Maritimes
Damien Abad (NC) in Ain (lol)
Nora Berra (UMP) in Rhône


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 09, 2009, 12:07:36 PM
I thank France Bleu and LH2 to make my point:

http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2009-12-08/sondage-71-des-francais-ne-connaissent-pas-leur-president-de-region/917/0/402610

It says that spontaneously 71% of French don't know the name of the president of their région.

29% know it then.

34% can find back the name when you tell them several names.

Which means that 63% have a clue about it and 37% no clue.

Also, 63% know the political color of their région. As says the article it has to be put in perspective with the fact that all régions have the same color except 2.

Motive to vote:

45% say they will determine their vote according to the social and economical situation (which I personally understand as the national situation).

Only 25% will take into account the what has done the preceding regional executive.

20% will vote based on what the government does.

What I said then, the regional executive is still not something really important in France yet.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on December 09, 2009, 04:44:33 PM
It would be good to know wich regions Sarkozy won in 2007 and compare with 2010. My opinion is that there will be a big difference...

Ipsos poll

Sarkozy: fav: 38 % def: 60 %

Fillon: fav: 43 % def: 48 %

All polls show the +- same result. Sarkozy in deep trouble and loved only by UMP voters. Below 50 % with the rest, FN voters even.

DOn't imagine that fillon is stronger than sarkozy. This guy is just invisible and when he speaks, he loses popularity...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 09, 2009, 04:57:27 PM
What I said then, the regional executive is still not something really important in France yet.

Well, yeah, but I still think there's a sense of attachment in France to municipalities, departments and regions even if they don't care about local government outside of their mayor. Perhaps it would help if people knew what the regional executive actually did.

The LH2 poll is rather confusing in their vote motivation thingee. Most pollsters have asked national vs. local issues, and local issues have always come out on top. LH2 isn't a top notch pollster either, and they usually stick to polling useless questions.


I don't see why that's surprising. FN voters who voted FN based out of concern over immigration or stuff now vote UMP. Those who still vote FN are clearly opposition voters, and not ideological voters.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 09, 2009, 05:43:38 PM
The LH2 poll is rather confusing in their vote motivation thingee. Most pollsters have asked national vs. local issues, and local issues have always come out on top. LH2 isn't a top notch pollster either, and they usually stick to polling useless questions.

Well, sure, local issues may remain important but that's the question of this centralized state, people still think centralized, President/Mayor are the figureheads, and lesser are Deputies/Préfets, the départementaux/régionaux executives are something vague, people are not aware of what they do.

That may change step by step, if I'm not a fan of the 'good ol' identities' movements as you know, I actually think that some decentralisation can be good, though I also find some advantages to centralisation, a balance could be found maybe but i haven't spent much time on it personally. Anyways it is surely on its way in this country, but today that's still not predominantly the case. And that s**king reform of régions won't help, may the PS point it well during the campaign.

I also tend to think that with what becomes this highly networked and individualized modern society France could jump over an actual decentralisation, to, something else, but this is an other debate...

I also wonder if that stuff wouldn't become what Umengus said once, a kind of mid-term election, it could have the potential today maybe.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on December 10, 2009, 01:38:25 PM
After 2007 election, a majority of FN voters had a fav opinion of Sarkozy. There is a change. Even for bayrou voters.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 10, 2009, 02:23:54 PM
A slight part of the 19% of Bayrou in presidentials could go on FN in the future. On part of his success having been as fab sometimes pointed out, its anti-system posture "the guy about whom no one speak". Since, journalists haven't stopped to speak about him, and there are other anti-system growing like the "new-generation" FN and partly, Greens.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on December 10, 2009, 03:59:38 PM
IdF last OpinionWay poll

UMP 30%
PS 24%
Greens 21%
PCF/PG 7%
MoDem 6%
FN 5%
AEI 3%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

Duflot (Greens) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/12/10/01002-20091210ARTFIG00840-idfpecresse-battue-par-huchon-et-duflot-.php


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 10, 2009, 04:04:38 PM
Yep, about IdF, when I see Duflot on TV I believe more and more she can take over there, she is pretty good.

Also, I wonder about Languedoc-Roussillon, since Greens say they wouldn't go with Frêche. Would seem all god for UMP there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 10, 2009, 04:41:23 PM
After 2007 election, a majority of FN voters had a fav opinion of Sarkozy. There is a change. Even for bayrou voters.

After the 2007 election, a overwhelming majority of French voters approved of Sarkozy. Your point is rather flawed.

IdF last OpinionWay poll

UMP 30%
PS 24%
Greens 21%
PCF/PG 7%
MoDem 6%
FN 5%
AEI 3%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Arthaud (LO) 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

Duflot (Greens) 57%
Pécresse (UMP) 43%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2009/12/10/01002-20091210ARTFIG00840-idfpecresse-battue-par-huchon-et-duflot-.php

Almost exactly what I expected. The Greens on 21% is a better level for them, probably a result of increased notoriety for Duflot. The 57-43 runoff figure is pretty correct and to be expected in the current climate.

On the topic of IdF, the Left Front has nominated a high-ranking PCF apparatchik, Pierre Laurent, over the better-known but far more mavericky/independent Patrick Braouezec. That's a rather poor choice, but this poll's 7% for Laurent is rather pleasing for them still.

Also, lol @ Dolium.

Nationally, that poll is a bit weirder:

UMP-NC 30% (-1)
PS 23% (+1)
Greens 14% (-2)
FN 10% (+1)
MoDem 8% (+1)
PCF/PG 4% (-2)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
LO 2% (new)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on December 10, 2009, 06:04:29 PM
IdF Ifop poll for the JDD

UMP 34%
PS 23%
Greens 16%
PCF/PG 7%
FN 6.5%
MoDem 5%
NPA 3.5%
DLR 3%
AEI 2%

Runoff

Huchon (PS) 52%
Pécresse (UMP) 48%

Duflot (Greens) 52%
Pécresse (UMP) 48%

Ifop has been having weird results since the Euros, and these are rather weird and too favourable to the right.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 08, 2010, 06:21:49 AM
Currently, the UMP should be able to keep Alsace but would be unable to win any other region than Champagne-Ardenne, which is a toss-up.
And Corsica would be won by some sort of left majority.

Even in Pays-de-la-Loire, the momentum isn't at all on the right side.

So you might ask why I've written those lines... you're damn right...
Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.
:(


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 08, 2010, 08:45:48 AM
Alsace should be held by the right, but without Zeller's centrist appeal and Sarkozy's overall unpopularity... it won't be a slam dunk. Champagne-Ardenne could very well stay on the left.

Corse depends on post-electoral alliances, but the left will win on numbers like in 2004.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on January 09, 2010, 11:10:41 AM
Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.
:(

No, unless the Greens withdrew.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 09, 2010, 11:38:44 AM
In Languedoc-Roussillon, the Greenies and PCF-PG (the PG will apparently lead the list here) have reached a deal according to which they will merge for the runoff if one of the two is qualified for the runoff, which is very likely. It could open way to a three-way runoff between Freche, Couderc and the Greenies (or PCF) and even a four-way if the FN makes it, which is likely. I'm sure Couderc is quite happy, since division of the left is his only hope to make this at least interesting.

Those elections, which could have been very interesting, are going to be extremely boring.
:(

No, unless the Greens withdrew.

Yes, of course. But they're going to be boring for the right in the sense that the UMP is extremely unlikely to perform significantly better than in 2004


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on January 09, 2010, 11:45:38 AM
Yup, I always thought that because of Greens position on Frêche Languedoc Roussillon could be a safe spot for UMP.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 11, 2010, 04:26:15 AM
In Languedoc-Roussillon, the Greenies and PCF-PG (the PG will apparently lead the list here) have reached a deal according to which they will merge for the runoff if one of the two is qualified for the runoff, which is very likely. It could open way to a three-way runoff between Freche, Couderc and the Greenies (or PCF) and even a four-way if the FN makes it, which is likely. I'm sure Couderc is quite happy, since division of the left is his only hope to make this at least interesting.


Thanks, Hash, to let me think there is still a hope... ;)

You remember I early referred to this possibility, but I don't believe in it any longer.

Either the FN will make it to the 2nd round (France Jamet, its main candidate, is a "good" one in this region: daughter of Alain Jamet -yep, always nepotism in the FN ;D- she is from a perfect poujadist tradition),
or the UMP will be behind one left list in the second round...

Nationally, Benoît, I don't think there will be a suspense between the PS and the Greens. The Greens will be behind, even in IdF and Rhône-Alpes. It will be a "classical" election of rejection of the incumbent "power", no more.
Boring....


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on January 11, 2010, 12:43:25 PM
Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on January 11, 2010, 02:33:43 PM
Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

I'm not sure than Duflot is so well... she's agressive and ideological. Huchon is quite the contrary. I think that Pecresse has a better chance against Duflot than against Huchon.


For the rest, medias speak about the (real or not) come back of the fn again and again. Their result in paca, NPDC, Picardy, Champagne,... and Corsica and Alsace will be interessant.  I bet on a solid come back. Just my 2 cents...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on January 11, 2010, 02:38:05 PM
Hmm, Fabien, if they have the energy they had before the holidays, and if the abstention is significant (55% of turnout), Greens can do it. And IdF would be the their 1st spot, since Duflot is better and better, and well Huchon, is, euh, Huchon, and won't help PS in IdF, and I think IdF is the only spot in which name recognition really matters, actually, most of people won't vote for them here, but maybe in IdF. Plus, well, FN could also raise interrogation marks here or there, Le Pen father seems...en forme! (healthy) since recenty...

I'm not sure than Duflot is so well... she's agressive and ideological. Huchon is quite the contrary. I think that Pecresse has a better chance against Duflot than against Huchon.

...oh, Pécresse has a better chance against nobody, just because she is Pécresse, and I disagree about Huchon and Duflot, she's neither ideological nor aggressive, and that's why she has chances and that she is good, for their sake Greens became Europe Ecologie. Huchon has the image of an old boring laissez-faire guy, and as I said, Dray is around.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 11, 2010, 07:43:08 PM
ftr, the Greenies have been acting quite arrogant and haughty since their showing in the Euros. To me, atleast. Their way of rejecting aloofly the calls from the MoDem or other parties for first round alliances; and the general impression they give of thinking that now that they won 16% they can win every single thing.

And Duflot is overrated, just like the Greens are. Not in polls, but as objects and persons.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on January 12, 2010, 08:57:24 AM
Well, no, they just have ideas and ambition for their idea, they have energy too and they are constructive, while the other ones all try to become Greens just in order to be trendy. Actually, this impression of energy shouldn't be seen as arrogance just because all the other ones are down and jealous of the dynamic there is around them. Now, I'm not saying they are perfect, I've always said they remain kids, of the sort of the young teens that now they experience puberty they feel everything is opened to them and that they need nobody now and that they can change the world. There is a bit of that in them, yes, but not only, they remain constructive and lucid, the talks they keep concerning what could happen after the 1st round show it, they very much know that the PS is still here and that they will have to deal with it in the future.

But, they are ambitious for their ideas, and something we can't reproach to them is the sincerity of theirs (unlike the old Les Verts) so they wanna try to see what they can do at best alone in a national election and this in order to have some weight in the Left in the future, I see it as plain legitimate and logical.

I see 2 dangers for EE.

1st, before the regionals. The challenge they have to take up is 'décroissance', I consider they are more interesting and constructive than this concept that the PS and UMP throw them in their face, but that's the main, and quite the only one that they found until now against them, they have to succeed to counter this argument, I think they can.

2nd, after regionals. If they effectively make a big score in regionals, they could lose the head, and become really insolent, what would harm them. But I think some guys like Cohn Bendit bros could help them to warn them on this, plus Duflot seems aware of such dangers too.

Actually there is some potential there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on January 13, 2010, 08:39:43 AM
ftr, the Greenies have been acting quite arrogant and haughty since their showing in the Euros. To me, atleast. Their way of rejecting aloofly the calls from the MoDem or other parties for first round alliances; and the general impression they give of thinking that now that they won 16% they can win every single thing.

And Duflot is overrated, just like the Greens are. Not in polls, but as objects and persons.

100 % agree. Arrogant is the good word.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on January 14, 2010, 03:17:17 PM
internet Ifop poll - ile de france

UMP: 32 -2
PS: 24 +1
Verts-europe ecologie: 17 +1

FN: 8 +1,5
Parti de gauche: 6
NPA: 4
Modem: 5

Debout la République: 2,5
Aliiance écolo indépendante: 1,5



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2010, 09:46:43 PM
National CSA poll for Le Parisien, change compared to the last CSA poll in October

UMP-NC 33% (+2)
PS 22% (+1)
Greens 15% (-2)
MoDem 9% (+1)
FN 7% (-1)
PCF-PG 6% (=)
NPA 5% (-1)
LO 3% (=)

CSA is one of the worst pollsters out there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 20, 2010, 02:57:33 PM
Besancenot will be the NPA's top candidate in IdF. 5-8% range, I say.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2010/01/20/01002-20100120ARTFIG00457-regionales-besancenot-tete-de-liste-en-ile-de-france-.php


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on January 20, 2010, 03:11:57 PM
Besancenot will be the NPA's top candidate in IdF. 5-8% range, I say.

You're generous. The guy seems totally disillusioned.

Also, interesting the beginning of EE's campaign, they quite changed of tone, you can see that they take the measure of the new scale of this campaign, now they play an actual national campaign, seems they figured it out.

I think a way for them to grow could also be what they did during the euros, focusing on the stakes of the election. I mean if PS and UMP fight on national issues, they could come saying that them, they focus on the regional ones, and a big part of regional stakes being transport and studies, that can be good for them. Campaign hasn't really begun in the media though, so we can't really see rapports de force.

That could be amusing if they turn this election like this: national speeches on regional stakes. France's decentralisation.

Anyways, one more time, I think one of their best ally would be abstention.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on January 21, 2010, 07:30:51 AM
PACA Isama (?) poll for Vauzelle

PS 30%
UMP 28%
FN 19%
Europe Ecologie 9%
FG 4%
MoDem 3%
Ligue du Sud 3%
NPA 2%
AEI 1%

Runoff

Vauzelle 48%
Mariani 34%
Le Pen 18%


Vauzele 56%
Mariani 44%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 21, 2010, 07:54:17 AM
You forgot FN at 19% in the first round. It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on January 21, 2010, 04:33:04 PM

Fixed.

It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

Definitely to high since Bompard's joke party is at 3% too. Did you ever heard about this compagny, Isama?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 21, 2010, 05:13:52 PM
It's an internal, and most numbers are decent but the FN seems too high and the Greenies too low.

Definitely to high since Bompard's joke party is at 3% too. Did you ever heard about this compagny, Isama?

Bompard has some ex-FN support and some ex-MNR support, but the MPF has disowned him and we all saw in June what dissident far-right clowns, even with some institutional backing, can poll in elections. Lol Carl Lang. Anyway, I never heard of Isama, but their website indicates they're quite new and have never polled any elections (though they do usual political polls).

http://www.isama.fr/qui/presentation.php


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 21, 2010, 06:30:10 PM
Ligue du Sud?

???


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 21, 2010, 06:58:53 PM

A far-right outfit founded by the MPF (ex-FN) Mayor of Orange, intentionally named to imitate a certain Italian fascist-regionalist party. Bompard opposes Sarkozy, but the MPF was quick to disown him and Patrick Louis/Phillipe de Villiers made clear that they don't condone him.

He's gained the support of the racists, what's left of the MNR, the 2 locals who like Carl Lang, and a few FN dissidents like Guy Macary.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 22, 2010, 01:23:53 PM
Languedoc-Roussillon by Sofres, PS internal

Frêche (PS) 29%
Couderc (UMP) 26%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 14%
Revol (PCF-PG-NPA) 9%
Jamet (FN) 8%
Drevet (AEI) 7%
Jeanjean (DVD-CNI) 4%
Dufour (MoDem) 3%

Runoff

Frêche (PS) 38%
Couderc (UMP) 33%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 24%
Jamet (FN) 5%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 38%
Jamet (FN) 8%

Frêche (PS) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 34%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 26%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 46%

Issues with this poll:
The EE list is polled as the "Green list"
LO and Ligue du Midi not tested
FN numbers seem awfully low if they're at 8-10% nationally, especially if the Ligue du Midi (1-2%) is not tested

Basically a poll to comfort Frêche, and the numbers will probably please the Greenies a bit. The AEI, which is a fringe ecolo-crazies alliance at best, has a huge name recognition advantage with the candidacy of Patrice Drevet... a former weather forecaster!

The MoDem is blowing up all over the place. The polling in regions for them is terrible, in Poitou-Charentes, PDL and other regions their members are joining PS lists (in Poitou) or UMP lists (in PDL) and they're having a hell of a time to scramble finding candidates, and they're left mostly with a municipal councillor in Trifouilly-les-Oies and that kind of crap-quality. As Les Guignols say so eloquently, le MoDem, c'est une branlée électorale par année


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on January 22, 2010, 01:29:52 PM
The MoDem is blowing up all over the place. The polling in regions for them is terrible, in Poitou-Charentes, PDL and other regions their members are joining PS lists (in Poitou) or UMP lists (in PDL) and they're having a hell of a time to scramble finding candidates, and they're left mostly with a municipal councillor in Trifouilly-les-Oies and that kind of crap-quality. As Les Guignols say so eloquently, le MoDem, c'est une branlée électorale par année


What I say since the euro. What is rather pathetic it is that it remains an actual debate in PS 'should we go with MoDem??', as if it was an important question, and it makes a lot fights, I could have seen on a PS forum recently. Maybe they need this election to wake up and figure out that this an empty political space, may Bayrou also figure out that while he waits for presidency, the world doesn't wait for him.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on January 22, 2010, 04:21:21 PM
It's weird to see that in the two first runoff the Sofres survey tested, FN voters choose heavily to vote for the left (2% for Frêche, 2% for the Greens, 1% for Couderc) if there is no FN candidate...
Frêche (PS) 38%
Couderc (UMP) 33%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 24%
Jamet (FN) 5%

Frêche (PS) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 34%
Roumegas (Greens-EE) 26%

...and in the second scenario, all of them choose to vote in favor of Couderc.
Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 38%
Jamet (FN) 8%

Frêche (PS) 54%
Couderc (UMP) 46%

Okay, I guess I take the whole thing too seriously...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on January 27, 2010, 09:04:14 AM
Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%




Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 28, 2010, 04:32:34 PM
Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

IFOP was pretty poor in the Euros, but this doesn't seem that bad (though the FN is surprisingly low).

If the UMP is really at 27%, they're fucked all over. Champagne-Ardenne would be a wet dream, and they'd need to focus on keeping flipping Alsace. I'll wait for confirmation of this trend, but if it's true, it's likely to be worse than 2004.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on January 28, 2010, 04:49:45 PM
Ifop poll (phone)

UMP-NC: 27
PS: 27
Europe ecologie: 13 %
FN: 8,5 %
Modem: 6,5%
communist + parti de gauche: 5%
NAP (Besancenot: 3%
LO (Laguiller): 2%

IFOP was pretty poor in the Euros, but this doesn't seem that bad (though the FN is surprisingly low).

If the UMP is really at 27%, they're fucked all over. Champagne-Ardenne would be a wet dream, and they'd need to focus on keeping flipping Alsace. I'll wait for confirmation of this trend, but if it's true, it's likely to be worse than 2004.

yes ifop is poor. 8,5 % is not so low. Interesting to see the small (durable ?) fall of the greens. But PS has today the problem of George Freche scandal and will do probably a list against him and will "lose" the region.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 29, 2010, 05:20:18 PM
Interesting sh**t in Languedoc-Roussillon.

Pierre Laval Georges Frêche said some controversial stuff on Fabius, so the national PS Politburo is very pissed off at him (until now, they had reluctantly supported him, since apparently being a racist quasi-fascist is preferable to hating Fabius).

The left has always been pissed, notably the Greenies and most of the PCF-PG-NPA, and there is still a deal between Greenies and Left Front for the runoff. But now, the national PS in the name of the 'values of the left' (lol) is announcing the dissident candidacy of the Mayor of Montpellier, Hélène Mandroux. Hélène Mandroux, originally a Frêchiste, but who entered the anti-Frêche line in 2008 or so after Frêche took the presidency of the Montpellier Agglomeration Community over her, is the biggest opponent in the regional PS to Frêche (with Eric Andrieu, leader of the PS in the Aude of some sort). Most of the regional party is dominated by Frêchistes (his proxy won the primary with 66% against Andrieu).

Mandroux says her list is in the name of "rassemblement de la gauche et des écologistes" (rally of the left and ecologists). That's nice, but you're late on the bandwagon since the Greenies have been proposing to dissident Socialists a spot on their list since last year. It will be interesting to see if the PS-Greens-PCF can create a united front in the runoff and face off with Frêche and Couderc.

I'm sure Couderc is quite happy about all this, since this might be the only region where they sky isn't pitch black concerning the UMP's hopes.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on January 30, 2010, 09:11:26 AM
As if anybody cares, I'm changing my race ratings in a few regions:

Languedoc-Roussillon: DVG/Frêche Favoured > Lean DVG/Frêche Favoured
Alsace: UMP Favoured > Lean UMP
Champagne-Ardennes: Lean UMP > Tossup
Pays-de-la-Loire and Basse-Normandie: Pure Tossup > Tossup/Tilt PS


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 01, 2010, 03:58:09 AM
Unfortunately, I'm not so sure any longer that Couderc can take the winner prize even in a 3-way second round.
Aubry's interference "from Paris" will doom the Mandroux list (local voters won't be pleased...)  and Freche will be the big winner.
And, in the 2nd round, there will probably be a union list between Mandroux and Greens-PCF, but it will be nasty and inefficient.

Alsace will be the only UMP region next March...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 01, 2010, 07:50:38 AM
Giacobbi, Zuccarelli and Renucci (not sure about Bucchini) seem to have made a deal in Corse for the runoff where the top-placed list gets the presidency, and other executive spots are awarded proportionally. It isn't final, and nothing is final in Corse especially when dealing with sworn enemies of the past.

Still, I'll move it from Pure Tossup to Lean Left


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 02, 2010, 08:27:37 AM
IFOP poll in the Centre

Novelli (UMP) 34%
Bonneau (PS) 22%
Delavergne (Green) 11%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Fesneau (MoDem) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1052-1-study_file.pdf


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 02, 2010, 10:26:43 AM
IFOP poll in the Centre

Novelli (UMP) 34%
Bonneau (PS) 22%
Delavergne (Green) 11%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Fesneau (MoDem) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
NPA 4%
AEI 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

http://www.ifop.com/media/poll/1052-1-study_file.pdf

If the second round is very, very positive for the UMP, 46% is really a ceiling:
34 + 5 from the FN + 3 from MoDem + 2 MPF + 2 from AEI.

And with some abstention... it's really over for Novelli, despite the fact that Bonneau is a bad candidate (22% isn't very good...).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on February 03, 2010, 05:10:17 AM
***BREAKING NEWS***

Greens, UMP tied according to the first poll in Alsace.

Richert (UMP) 34%
Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 21%
Bigot (PS) 18%
Binder (FN) 11%
Werhling (MoDem) 4%
Cordonnier (Alsace d'abord) 4%
(NPA) 2,5%
Stoessel (Force centriste Alsace) 2%
Wostyn (LO) 2%
Causer (FG) 1,5%

Runoff

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 44%
Richert (UMP) 43%
Binder (FN) 13%

Richert (UMP) 44%
Bigot (PS) 41%
Binder (FN) 15%[/quote]

http://www.parismatch.com/Actu-Match/Politique/Actu/Sondage-L-Alsace-voit-Vert-aux-elections-regionales-165403/


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 03, 2010, 08:22:49 AM
lol.

Not entirely surprising since Richert is an awful candidate, quite worse than Zeller who had centrist appeal. And the alliance between the MEI and the Greens, it really helps the ecolos do even better in a region where they're strong though divided.

And while we're on the topic of debacle...

Ifop poll in Corse
Rocca Serra (UMP) 30%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 12%
Simeoni/Angelini (PNC-Aut) 12%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 10%
Renucci (CSD) 9%
Bucchini (FG) 7%
Talamoni (Nationalists) 5%
Baccerelli (AEI) 5%
Cardi (FN) 5%
Toma (MoDem) 2%
Battini (Forza Corsica) 2%

In the runoff...
Left (PS+PRG+CSD+FG) 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 39%
Simeoni/Angelini (PNC-Aut) 17%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 03, 2010, 09:13:47 AM
I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.
But, still, everything is possible.
Even a 4-way 2nd round.... ;)
I mean, it will be difficult between the Greens and the PS between the 1st and 2nd rounds...

As for Corsica, I think it's lost for the UMP but I'm surprised that it's quite close.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 03, 2010, 10:44:20 AM
I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.

I think Greenies have a larger 'rallying' effect than a normal Socialist could have...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 03, 2010, 10:56:28 AM
btw, in Alsace, if we look at the various 'rapports de force'

in 2004:
Right 34%
EXD 28%
Left 24%
Others/centre 11% (MEI 7% + buralistes 4%)
EXG 3%

in 2010:
Left 40.5% (+16.5)
Right 34% (nc)
EXD 15% (-13)
Others/centre 6% (-5)
EXG 4.5% (+1.5)

However, around 5-6% of Green voters (counted all as left) would vote for a MEI list (imo), so the real left might be more around 34%-36%

in the Euros:
Right 37%
Left 34%
Centre 10%
EXD 8%
Others/ecolo 6%
EXG 5%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 03, 2010, 11:31:09 AM
I really don't believe in this poll on Alsace: the difference between the FN scores when it's the PS or the Greens in the 2nd round is... surprising.

I think Greenies have a larger 'rallying' effect than a normal Socialist could have...
Yep, especially with the MEI, but a 2 points difference on FN score is big, sort of. (Except if the NSP are higher in one case...)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 04, 2010, 04:33:42 PM
TNS Sofres national poll confirms the UMP is in a situation worse than in 2004:

UMP 30%
PS 28%
Greens 13%
FN 8.5%
FG 6%
MoDem 4%
NPA 3.5%
LO 3%
Others 4%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 05, 2010, 10:42:32 AM
If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 05, 2010, 04:45:29 PM
If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

"'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too"

it's good also for the FN. After 3 years of Sarkozysm, I think that people are not so naive to vote again for Sarkozy on these topics and a protest vote is possible.

Concerning Bayrou, the sink is based on the sofres poll. Others polls give 8 at 10 %. Unfortunatly for Bayrou, the narrative today is that his campaign is in very bad shape.

For now, an UMP great defeat is for me an evidence. But there are still lots of unknows and the scores of PS, green and modem are very changing.   

But even an UMP crash, Sarkozy stays the front runner for 2012.

CSA poll

Scenario 1

Arthaud: 1%
Besancenot: 6%
Buffet: 3 %

Aubry: 19 %
Duflot: 8 %

Bayrou: 12 %

De Villepin: 10 %

Sarkozy: 32 %

Marine Le Pen: 9 %

Turnout: 62 (very weak compared to 2007)

Sarkozy: 52 %
Aubry: 48 %

Scenario 2

Arthaud: 1%
Besancenot: 7%
Buffet: 3 %

Strauss-Kahn: 22 %
Duflot: 9%

Bayrou: 10 %

De Villepin: 10 %

Sarkozy: 29 %

Marine Le Pen: 9 %

Turnout: 62 %

Sarkozy: 48 %
DSK: 52 %




Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 05, 2010, 05:31:53 PM
If anyone has an abstention poll...

Also, I'm wondering on a possible good surprise for UMP, eventually, there have been several good topic for them lately, 'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too, and now they know they are in a deep hole, they have nothing to lose they could push on that realms or others. Meanwhile, PS is already quite triomphalist, while the campaign is just beginning, and will surely really begin 2 weeks before the election.

UMP has a lot of negative points on the other hand, but, all of this plus a big abstention could be a good surprise for UMP. Polls have sometimes (not to say always), some surprises, you never know...

Also, Bayrou, seems more he sinks more he does what he has to do in order to sink. Yesterday, on Soir 3 he continued to serve the catastrophist speech that the nation was in danger, that everything was black and bad, and so forth, very demagogic tone. But, as always, at the end he proposed a concrete constructive measure about 'stages' for regionals. That's Bayrou, interesting stuffs to propose but awful in his ways to politically exist, by one way or an other, here the catastrophist one.

"'burqa' debate, what happened after football matches with Algeria, 'insecurity' is coming back in media too"

it's good also for the FN. After 3 years of Sarkozysm, I think that people are not so naive to vote again for Sarkozy on these topics and a protest vote is possible.

Not sure, the FN seems more mixed than ever in terms of leadership with the last campaign of the father. Well, let's just see.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 05, 2010, 05:56:26 PM
If anyone has an abstention poll...

My personal guess is between 40 and 45% or so. Higher than 2004, for sure, and around 2008 levels.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 07, 2010, 06:16:40 AM
Ile de france - sofres

UMP: 32%
PS: 22%
Greens: 17%

NPA: 6%
PCF: 6 %
FN: 4,5%
Modem: 3 %

Languedoc - Opinion Way

Freche: 24 %
UMP: 23 %

Greens: 12 %
PS (Mandroux): 11 %
FN: 11 %
PDG-PCF: 9 %
Patrick Devret: 8 %

Second turn:

Freche: 34 %
UMP: 32 %
left(PS, greens,...): 30 %

IF at the first turn, GREEN and PS are allied, they would score 19 % et Freche 26 %

There are still lots of unknows in this region but it's clear that PS will lose. It will be interessant to see if PS will support to beat Freche... (like RPR supported PS to beat FN...)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 07, 2010, 09:10:15 PM
Full and correct results of the Languedoc-Roussillon poll by OpinionWay for the Greenies (so much for the theory of OpinionWay being the big bad right-wing pollster)

Frêche (DVG) 24%
Couderc (UMP) 23%
Roumegas (Greens) 12%
Mandroux (PS) 11%
Jamet (FN) 10%
Revol (PG-PCF-NPA) 9%
Drevet (AEI-MoDem) 8%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

or

Frêche (DVG) 26%
Couderc (UMP) 23%
Roumegas (Greens-PS) 19%
Jamet (FN) 10%
Revol (PG-PCF-NPA) 10%
Drevet (AEI-MoDem) 8%
Jeanjean (DVD) 3%

Runoffs:

Frêche (DVG) 34%
Couderc (UMP) 32%
Roumegas (Greens-PS-FG) 30%
(6% missing lol)

Frêche (DVG) 32%
Couderc (UMP) 30%
Roumegas (Greens-PS-FG) 27%
Jamet (FN) 8%

There is also a poll in PACA for the AEI by OpinionWay

PS 27%
UMP 27%
FN 14%
Greens 13%
MoDem 4%
PCF-PG 4%
AEI 4% (6% with MoDem, 5% with AC)
NPA 3%
AC 2%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 07, 2010, 09:11:27 PM
Also, the Drevet-MoDem alliance was quite short, because the MoDem has broken the deal and Marc Dufour will be the MoDem's separate candidate.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 08, 2010, 05:28:48 AM
Very often, I'm wrong in electoral predictions ;)

But in Languedoc, I keep thinking Frëche will win.
See, even with a divided left, Couderc isn't able to be above.
And, imagine Jamet can make it to the second round, it's over for the UMP.

Granted some FN voters vote for Frêche, but I think he also grasps many votes from the far-left: anti-Paris vote and anti-bobo vote will be strong.

At least, there is one region where there is some sort of suspense !

BTW, in Ile-de-France, this is 55-45 in the 2nd round for PS-Verts against Pécresse... 10 points...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 08, 2010, 05:43:48 PM
Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 09, 2010, 04:08:57 PM
Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%


Besancenot is curiously weak...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 09, 2010, 05:53:59 PM
Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%


Besancenot is curiously weak...

NPA is weak nationally, Besancenot's popularity is sliding and IDF is unfavourable to the far-left these days.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 10, 2010, 06:11:56 AM
Two OpinionWay polls:

IDF:
Pécresse (UMP) 30% (nc)
Huchon (PS) 26% (+2)
Duflot (Greens) 18% (-3)
Arnautu (FN) 6% (+1)
Laurent (FG) 5% (-2)
Dolium (MoDem) 5% (-1)
Governatori (AEI) 3% (nc)
Besancenot (NPA) 3% (+1)
NDA (DLR) 2% (new)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-1)
Federbusch (UCR) 1% (new)

Huchon (PS) 55% (-2)
Pécresse (UMP) 45% (+2)

National image:

UMP 30% (nc)
PS 27% (+4)
Greens 10% (-4)
FN 9% (-1)
FG 6% (+2)
MoDem 6% (-2)
DVD 3% (new)
NPA 4% (nc)
AEI 2% (nc)
DVD 3% (new)
DVG 1% (new)
LO 1% (-1)
Other 1% (-2)

s/t Left (including MoDem) 50% vs. s/t Right 33%


Besancenot is curiously weak...

NPA is weak nationally, Besancenot's popularity is sliding and IDF is unfavourable to the far-left these days.

NPA yes but Besancenot is more popular. He scores (in polls) at 6-8 %. And medias are friendly with him. But the last days (pro-islamic stance) were not good for him.

A very astonishing poll (Opinion way)

Paca (comparaison with the 10/29 poll)

UMP: 30 % (+6)
PS: 24 % (-7)
FN (Le Pen): 15 % (+3)
Green 13 % (=)

Front de gauche: 6%
Alliance ecolo indépendante: 4 %
Modem= 3 % (!)

Second turn:

PS: 44 % (-6)
UMP: 41 % (+4)
FN: 15 % (+2)

 


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 10, 2010, 06:19:26 AM
Poitou- charentes

PS (Royal): 32 %
UMP (Bussereau): 29 %
Green: 14 %
FN: 7 %
Modem: 5 %
Front de gauche- PSF: 5 %
NPA: 4 %

Second turn:

Royal: 57 % (55% in 2004)
Bussereau: 43 %



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 10, 2010, 08:28:11 AM
Apparently the PACA poll has 26% of EE voters and 52% of MoDem voters voting UMP in the runoff. I have a hard time seeing 26% of EE voters, more than nationally, voting for a markedly right-leaning UMP candidate in the runoff unless there's some sort of recent bad blood between PS and UMP. I'm skeptic to say the least.

MoDem at 3% in PACA is not surprising. They have a no-name candidate, they're weak in the region and they're polling crap nationally.

57-43 for Royal in Poitou is good, and goes with the national trend (plus she's popular in the region).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 10, 2010, 09:47:04 AM
Apparently the PACA poll has 26% of EE voters and 52% of MoDem voters voting UMP in the runoff. I have a hard time seeing 26% of EE voters, more than nationally, voting for a markedly right-leaning UMP candidate in the runoff unless there's some sort of recent bad blood between PS and UMP. I'm skeptic to say the least.


It's not impossible, as many voters of Green lists aren't aware for who they are really voting...
And remember that there is France Gamerre (Génération Ecologie) in Marseilles (true, she might have a weight of 0.1%, but she contributes to give a more centrist or rightist image of ecologism, that many voters aren't able to differentiaite from the Greens) and that there are many small movements of defense of animals' rights, that were, for some of them, money pumps for the extreme right...
They might also have contributed to alter the image of ecologism.

But the main thing is that PACA should be the first to tilt towards the right IF the FN wasn't able to make it to the second round.
50% for Vauzelle in the previous poll was really high.

Plus there have been some corruption affairs recently in Bouches-du-Rhône, more on the left than on the right.
Plus Guérini and Mennucci seem to be open and harsh enemies now... So...

Anyway, Mariani won't win, but it's more logical to have a (slightly) competitive situation.

(5 months ago, when it was still worth making predictions, I've said that:
I want to be a bit more daring on this one. Well, Falco will be a very good candidate. Bompard will indeed kill a possible FN momentum. The region is really on the right now. Vauzelle is slowing down and I think there is really a change mood in there.
Falco is half-out and Bompard completely down, but Mariani isn't a bad candidate against an ageing Vauzelle and Le Pen isn't very high.)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 12, 2010, 10:41:54 AM
I agree with you, psychologically, the trend is on the right in PACA for me.

And the nationwide trend is turning as I expected (and wished, I really didn't like PS' triomphalism), with a high abstention, and personally I'd say a 50-55% turnout, with this trend continuing, and if Fillon continues to make good speeches like he did to shut the 'National Identity debate', if he stays in the foreground instead of Sarkozy, be prepared to see Blue on the map boys.

I really don't think the FN will be high, their leadership is totally dispersed for the last campaign of the father.

Also, I liked very much how Hollande answered to Chabot's question yesterday:

'Do you believe there will be a PS grand chelem?'

'I did the grand chelem, less 1'

Just what I expected, as answer, and tends to confirm what I tended to think, he's waiting for a defeat of Aubry, which would be good for him. He is on his way boys...

My safe bets:

Limousin: PS
Poitou-Charentes: PS Royal
Midi-Pyrénées: PS

Then, everything is opened!

Go Greens!

Though, well, campaign is coming but hasn't still really begun, you never know, but trends are clearly on the way to change for me.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 12, 2010, 11:24:20 AM
Oh and, how could have I forgotten it:

Languedoc-Roussilon to the party of Septimanie! Of course!

He has just slapped everyone this week in the media.

If it could be a lesson for this society...

Because while he was serving his old blunt rants and way of speaking to provoke everyone and to own everyone, first the overreaction of the society served him, ans made these kinds of provocations popular, then while not very legitimate that was counter-productive, but overall, meanwhile we had the 1st actually racist remark from the UMP, not the hell of a bloody polemic on that, very few spoken here or there, nothing more.

Mr the UMP mayor of Franconville, Mr Francis Delattre, about Ali Soumaré, PS head of list in Val d'Oise, of Malian origin:

'Surprising this list of PS in the département, led by a Mr Samaré, in a 1st time I had thought it was a player of the second team of PSG'

So, outside of the fact that it seemed hard for him to correctly pronounce this easy name, 'Black = sports', and here second team more of that. Here we go the 1st public actual racist remark from a non-extremist politician.

And, what a random. Who is this Ali Soumaré, this Ali Soumaré comes from a rough district of the Parisian suburb, and nevertheless he comes from there, he speaks very well, he has a very calm and constructive temperament. Plus he really represents people from these rough districts by this behavior, he embodies a guy in which people, and especially men, which is very important, from there could find an echo and think, we can do it, he doesn't appear as the good ole colored guy who has anecdotal behavior and of which the words wouldn't have much impact, and that is something very rare in the French political landscape, that isn't Harlem Désir, that isn't Malek Boutih, that isn't Azouz Begag, that isn't even Alain Dolium, that is something new.

And what a random, what a random that a guy who comes from there, with different ethnic origins, and, for once, has the potential to have an actual impact in the French political landscape is given the 1st public actual racist comment.

Make up your mind bloody society, while you scream at Frêche for peanuts, you let racism goes...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 12, 2010, 12:45:21 PM
On the topic of abstention, voter interest seems to be rising (the Freche incident seems to have stimulated turnout) which is unsurprising.

37% of those polled said they talked about the regional elections, 17% higher than a month before. It's even higher than at the same time in 2004.

At the same time, an OpinionWay poll in IDF predicted turnout at 59% (61% in the 2004 first round).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 12, 2010, 12:49:16 PM
On the topic of abstention, voter interest seems to be rising (the Freche incident seems to have stimulated turnout) which is unsurprising.

37% of those polled said they talked about the regional elections, 17% higher than a month before. It's even higher than at the same time in 2004.

At the same time, an OpinionWay poll in IDF predicted turnout at 59% (61% in the 2004 first round).

Well, let's see, generally speaking I'd care more about polls a few days before the election. Thanks for your data though. And if trend is effectively changing, it could benefit to the right too. It remains more than one month, that's too much to make definitive talks today anyways, we can just try to see trends.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 12, 2010, 12:58:22 PM
A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 12, 2010, 12:59:28 PM
A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée


lol, about who?? And from whom is that?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 12, 2010, 01:01:05 PM
A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée


lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

Les Guignols (February 8) about Segogo.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 12, 2010, 01:03:21 PM
A bit of humour:

Apres le NPA qui présente une femme voilée, le PS présente une femme cinglée


lol, about who?? And from whom is that?

Les Guignols (February 8) about Segogo.

Oh ok, well they can make better when they are not lazy.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 12, 2010, 01:16:08 PM
Some better humor ;D, and also interesting:

http://chevallierorange.wordpress.com/

Haven't read the 2 last ones, just the ones on Chamakh and Grébert. Though here too, that's easy to make fun of MoDem nowadays, but well, seems it's rather legitimate. ;D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 13, 2010, 10:42:55 AM
TNS-Sofres/Logica poll in PACA, which makes more sense

Vauzelle (PS) 30%
Mariani (UMP) 29%
Le Pen (FN) 13%
Vichnievsky (Greens) 13%
Coppola (FG) 4%
Miran (AEI) 3%
Levraud (MoDem) 2%
Bompard (LDS) 2%
Bonnet (LO) 2%
Godard (NPA) 1%

Vauzelle (PS) 49%
Mariani (UMP) 37%
Le Pen (FN) 14%

Vauzelle (PS) 53%
Mariani (UMP) 47%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 15, 2010, 11:14:44 AM
OpinionWay poll in Poitou-Charentes

()

Royal (PS) 34%
Bussereau (UMP) 29%
Coutant (EE) 15%
Lacoste-Lareymondie (FN) 7%
Monier (MoDem-AEI) 5%
Jean (FG) 5%
Gaillard (LO) 3%
Verdin (DLR) 1%
Rossignol (NPA) 1%

Royal (PS) 58%
Bussereau (UMP) 42%

CSA (national)

UMP 33%
PS 27%
EE 13%
FN 8%
MoDem 5%
FG 4% (lol)
AEI 3%
NPA 3%
LO 2%
DVD 1%

CSA - IdF

UMP 34%
PS 26%
EE 15%
FN 6%
MoDem 5%
FG 5%

None of the others mentioned on LeMonde.fr

PS 57%
UMP 43%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 15, 2010, 03:03:43 PM
By now, I'd say all regions with possible leaning toward UMP go to UMP, so Centre, Basse-Normandie, Franche-Comté, Champagne-Ardenne.

And I also say PACA to UMP, with maybe a growing of Ligue du Sud.

I say a slap for FN, Le Pen tries a come-back and he makes big errors, like saying he could finally run in 2012, or a new antisemite provocation, her daughter won't help him much in this campaign, would certainly let him being a jerk, in order he loses, plus it's really no more his generation.

I think PS will make a bad campaign, and Greens have a real possibility to make a good campaign, UMP really can do it too with a kind of Good cop, François Fillon reassuring the traditional right, and Bad cop, Lefevbre taking voices on the right of the right, someone like Morano can help as well.

For the rest I don't know enough electoral demographics to say if more could go, but I really think UMP will grow, insecurity is really more and more back in the media.

And, go Greens! Duflot is better and better, I think they can do something as well.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 15, 2010, 03:50:10 PM
Novelli can't win.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on February 15, 2010, 06:28:56 PM

My only comment will concern their little map, it's not a surprise that Opinionway know nothing about politics or polling, but now it applies to geography too: no, Vendée is not (already) in Poitou-Charentes...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 15, 2010, 07:40:16 PM

My only comment will concern their little map, it's not a surprise that Opinionway know nothing about politics or polling, but now it applies to geography too: no, Vendée is not (already) in Poitou-Charentes...

It's actually from Le Figaro. It isn't a surprise that the joke which mascarades itself as the French media has no clue about history or geography.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 16, 2010, 09:51:59 AM
BREAKING NEWS !

Hash will be hugely interested in this:

a list supported by Solidarité et Progrès, latest party from Jacques Cheminade, will have candidates in Brittany, under the name "Bretagne, nouveau phare du monde"...

Don't laugh, please.

Ouest-France says this is a "divers gauche" list. Of course, we know that Cheminade is far more complex than that.
In a way, he may be the French politician who is the closest one to US politics... ;)
So, I guess this news perfectly fits this forum.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 16, 2010, 08:03:20 PM
BREAKING NEWS !

Hash will be hugely interested in this:

a list supported by Solidarité et Progrès, latest party from Jacques Cheminade, will have candidates in Brittany, under the name "Bretagne, nouveau phare du monde"...

Don't laugh, please.

Ouest-France says this is a "divers gauche" list. Of course, we know that Cheminade is far more complex than that.
In a way, he may be the French politician who is the closest one to US politics... ;)
So, I guess this news perfectly fits this forum.

Oh, dear, not the LaRouchites. That thing is a real disease.

This obviously calls for a FLB list!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 17, 2010, 05:02:47 AM
And please note this is the sole region where they are putting forward lists !

There is also lists named "Terres de Bretagne", full of peasants.
The Télégramme de Brest says this is the agro-industry lobby.

I'm not so sure. Maybe a hidden way for the right to gather people that could not vote at all, go to the MoDem or, very marginally, to the FN.
In Ille-et-Vilaine, a Vincent Méhaignerie (35 years old) is on it. Don't know anything about him.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 17, 2010, 10:31:21 AM
Ifop poll

UMP: 29,5 (+2,5)
PS: 29 (+2)
Europe ecologie: 11 (-2)
FN: 9 (+0,5)

Front de gauche: 6,5 (+1,5)
Modem: 5 (-1,5)
NPA: 2,5 (-0,5)
NPA/front de gauche: 0,5 (-0,5)
LO: 2 (-1)
Alliance ecologiste indépendante: 2

The decline of the greens is interessant to observe. Probably due to the fact that turnout will be way better than european elections (and that they are completely insane...). The same thing for FN but in opposite direction.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 17, 2010, 10:48:59 AM
National polls are useless and only provide entertainment. For the umpteenth time.

A OpinionWay poll in Languedoc-Roussillon
DVG 31
UMP 22
EE 12
FG 11
FN 7
PS 6
AEI 6
DVD 2
LO 1
EXD (Ligue du Midi + JC Martinez) 2

DVG 41
UMP 32
EE-FG-PS 27

Awful results for the UMP, which is unable to benefit from the weird situation here. I will laugh if the UMP falls third in a runoff.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 18, 2010, 11:41:21 AM
TNS-Sofres in IDF

UMP 32% (=)
PS 26% (+4)
EE 14% (-3)
FG 7% (+1)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5)
FN 5% (+0.5)
MoDem 4 (+1)
DLR 4
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%

58-42 for Huchon in the runoff.

Most boringest elections ever.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 19, 2010, 05:54:05 AM
TNS-Sofres in IDF

UMP 32% (=)
PS 26% (+4)
EE 14% (-3)
FG 7% (+1)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5)
FN 5% (+0.5)
MoDem 4 (+1)
DLR 4
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%

58-42 for Huchon in the runoff.

Most boringest elections ever.

It's even boring in Languedoc-Roussillon now...
And we can't even expect fights for the presidencies after the polls.

But, at least, there may be a positive result: killing the MoDem.
I hope so, but I'm not so sure.
And I hope Aubry won't be seen as the only winner of all this.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 19, 2010, 11:59:33 AM
Boys, you still in believe in the PS raz-de-marrée...

Also, all polls are useless by now, still no campaign on screens, actually.

Outside of the fact that I'm more and more distrustful of polls, seeing how political analysts are relevant I don't know why would I care of pollsters cooking secrets...

And if you get interest to polls, I think national ones are as much worth of interest as regional ones, the only ones who know a bit about their regions are olds, mostly those who vote, ok, but, first that's not all olds, and second the other part of the electorate which remains significant, seems not to have a lot of clue about it, and would vote first for a national party.

Interesting how Châtel expressed himself with more and more force and convictions about what's going on in high-schools lately.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 20, 2010, 01:57:55 PM
New OpinionWay poll nationally

UMP 32% (+2)
PS 26% (-1)
Greens 14% (+4)
FN 9% (nc)
MoDem 5% (-1)
FG 5% (-1)
AEI 2% (nc)
NPA 2% (-2)
LO 1% (nc)
DVG 1% (nc)
DVD 1% (-2)
Others 2% (+2)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 21, 2010, 07:03:45 PM
For a fun exercise, here are my endorsements by region now that lists have closed:

Alsace: Jacques Fernique (EE)
Aquitaine: Jean Tellechea (EAJ-PNV); runoff: Alain Rousset (PS)
Auvergne: No endorsement; runoff: René Souchon (PS)
Bourgogne: François Sauvadet (NC-UMP)
Bretagne: Christian Troadec (PB-NTFB); runoff: Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS)
Centre: No endorsement; runoff: François Bonneau (PS)
Champagne-Ardenne: Jean-Luc Warsmann (UMP)
Corse: Simeoni-Angelini (PNC)
Franche-Comté: Alain Fousseret (EE)
Île-de-France: Valérie Pécresse (UMP)
Languedoc-Roussillon: Raymond Couderc (UMP)
Limousin: Jean-Paul Denanot (PS)
Lorraine: Laurent Hénart (UMP)
Midi-Pyrénées: Martin Malvy (PS)
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: Valérie Létard (NC-UMP)
Basse-Normandie: Laurent Beauvais (PS)
Haute-Normandie: Bruno Le Maire (UMP)
Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)
Picardie: Caroline Cayeux (UMP)
Poitou-Charentes: Dominique Bussereau (UMP)
Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur: Laurence Vichnievsky (EE)
Rhône-Alpes: No endorsement

9 UMP, 4 Greens, 3 PS (+4 in runoffs), 3 regionalists, 3 no endorsements.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2010, 08:29:52 AM
Yeah, the UMP's screwed big-time and we're in for the boringest elections to date:

Champagne-Ardenne (OpinionWay)

Warsmann (UMP) 30%
Bachy (PS-PCF) 28%
Loiselet (EE) 13%
Subtil (FN) 10%
Smith (NPA-PG) 6%
Wysocinski (AEI) 3%
Grafteaux-Paillard (MoDem) 4%
Rose (LO) 4%

Bachy (PS-PCF) 49%
Warsmann (UMP) 42%
Subtil (FN) 9%

Bachy (PS-PCF) 55%
Warsmann (UMP) 45%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/Barom%e8tre%20OpinionWay%20Fiducial%20-%20Champagne%20Ardenne.pdf

I can't say I'm really surprised (except perhaps by the 55-45 blowout, which does seem a bit exaggerated to me) given that the UMP is likely lower than 2004 nationally, and it's really unfavourable everywhere for the UMP.

The only hope if the current national polling sustains itself is the bad blood between Bachy and the Greenies coming out to hurt them. Bachy and the Greenies don't like each other much, and the Green list in 2004 didn't merge (IIRC) with Bachy, so, while it's still unlikely, maybe the Greenies and Bachy will find it hard to find common ground if both are qualify and a four-way runoff with PS, Greenies, UMP and FN might save the UMP.

Now I want a Bretagne poll to see a 60-40 runoff ;D... and 70-30 in Limousin!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 22, 2010, 09:42:40 AM
Well... what is amazing is indeed this 10-point margin in the second round and, what is more, a poll by OpinionWay (another sarkozyst tool, remember ;)) and a sample of 1006.

With 50% of FN voters going to the UMP and 50% of MoDem voters (as the leftist voters of the MoDem have come back to the PS or the Greens), that means that, in the second round, there are people who voted for the extreme-left in the 1st round or who abstained who want to beat the right
(or even people who were ready to vote for the UMP in the 1st round, but don't want it to win...).

This is really bad.

BTW, Hash, no endorsement in Rhône-Alpes ? ;)
I understand for EE, as Meyrieu is, for me, the example of this gauchisme pseudo-intellectuel, uniformisant et pédagogiste that I hate.
But why not Queyranne ?

As for me, as Malgorn has been attacked by some socialists, trying to describe her as a racist, well, I might eventually vote for her, after all.
Really hard not to have a NC or an Arthuis list...
I could go for Joncour, but, nationally, it would be like voting for Bayrou !


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2010, 09:54:26 AM
One weird thing about this poll is that even though 71% of FN voters vote for the UMP in the runoff, the PS gains a whole 6 points between a three-way and a duel, but the UMP only gains 3 points. If the FN did really split 70-30 for the right, you would obviously expect a narrower duel than 55-45, more along the lines of 52-48. Also surprising that Bachy gets 80%+ of Green voters despite the bad blood between them.

As for Rhône-Alpes, I don't know enough abot Queyranne to make a solid endorsement (in Aquitaine, I know Rousset is a de-centralist, in Bretagne I like Le Drian a lot, in Auvergne I hate Marleix, and in Centre I don't like Novelli). Plus, the last time I endorsed a PS candidate in the Rhône-Alpes was Gerard Collomb, and it's left an extremely horrid taste in my mouth. I don't like Malgorn, though the PS' attacks on her have been disgusting and have made me colder towards them. Malgorn is quite authoritarian, she's a Sarkozyst and she's probably anti-reunification.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 22, 2010, 11:41:45 AM
she's a Sarkozyst and she's probably anti-reunification.

Nantes affair I guess.

Gérard Onesta in Midi-Pyrénées here, well, I would vote for anyone from EE here.

Amusingly, on a regional debate on France3 Midi-Pyrénées, yesterday evening, he exposed all the contempt that Malvy had toward him until now, and that they could maintain themselves in the 2nd round. Haha, Midi-Pyrénées to UMP! Well, no, I think it was more to impress the audience, I very doubt they would do that, but, if so, would be 'funny'...

Also that's cool with my DSL offer (Bouygues) I have all the regional France3 channels, then I could have zapped here or there in regions...

Oh, and, some polls that I like (because they go in my sense), very high abstention according to Opinion Way, 50% (dunno whether there have been more polls from other pollsters about that), and MoDem at 4% nationally, though for the latter maybe that's not so well polled, maybe 2-3 could fit better.

Ah, and, finally, these polls could have an interest, they hammer the truth that PS will win everything, in an abstention context, those who hesitate between left and abstention would go for abstention thinking it's won anyways, and those who hesitate between right and abstention, would go to vote.

This in a context where mainly olds and bobos would vote, good for UMP and Greens.

Add to this that those who voted for FN 6 years ago, and who gave some regions to the left, would maybe pay more attention to their vote if they want a region on the right.

I really think FN will take a slap nationally, that it could be the official end of Le Pen father. I think it will be slapped in PACA (I give him 8% there by now, and 6% to Ligue du Sud), and that Marine will make a success in Nord-Pas-de-Calais, officializing the new FN, with its biggest stronghold passing from PACA to NPdC, the opening of a new era. Actually, especially when I see what is Ligue du Sud in PACA.

Also, well, Colomb should pay attention in Rhône-Alpes, by trying to show the regional PS close of Frêche, could be bad for PS, Languedoc-Roussillon and Rhône-Alpes are, quite, different.

Also, interesting the movement in gas refineries, if the syndicalists become too extreme, it could also favor the right, to be seen...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2010, 04:13:47 PM
The Ligue du Sud will never win 6%. Please stop buying into the media hype over FN-dissident lists, you see where that got them and us in 2009.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 22, 2010, 05:06:52 PM
The Ligue du Sud will never win 6%. Please stop buying into the media hype over FN-dissident lists, you see where that got them and us in 2009.

Oh, there is no media hype around them, or I discover it.

And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2010, 05:08:09 PM
And what are you exactly speaking about 2009?

Carl Lang.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 22, 2010, 05:17:14 PM

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2010, 05:24:21 PM

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

Ligue du Sud is another Carl Lang, albeit a bit better. So, the Ligue du Sud has a kind-of high-profile leader (who's probably high-profile unless to us junkies), but Carl Lang was kind of high-profile to being MEP and regional councillor. The Ligue du Sud has rallied a number of FN and MPF regional councillors. Big deal. Carl Lang got the support of almost a majority of the FN caucus in the NPDC regional council, and lots of councillors in Picardie and Normandie as well. Look where that brought him. 1%. The Ligue du Sud isn't better, and it doesn't even have that many FN dissidents from the regional council. Now, yes, Bompard can pull 4-6% in Vaucluse, which is better than Lang could do anywhere, but outside of that there is no infrastructure on the ground and he has no known candidates (that I know of) elsewhere. His max lies at 3%, better than Lang, yes, but not enough to be counted in as relevant.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 22, 2010, 05:55:57 PM

Well, I don't care that much about Carl Lang, and I don't express myself about other dissident FN candidacies, though not sure that's a good thing for the FN results either, but here I speak very specifically about Ligue du Sud, and about PACA, and about national trends of FN.

Ligue du Sud is another Carl Lang, albeit a bit better. So, the Ligue du Sud has a kind-of high-profile leader (who's probably high-profile unless to us junkies), but Carl Lang was kind of high-profile to being MEP and regional councillor. The Ligue du Sud has rallied a number of FN and MPF regional councillors. Big deal. Carl Lang got the support of almost a majority of the FN caucus in the NPDC regional council, and lots of councillors in Picardie and Normandie as well. Look where that brought him. 1%. The Ligue du Sud isn't better, and it doesn't even have that many FN dissidents from the regional council. Now, yes, Bompard can pull 4-6% in Vaucluse, which is better than Lang could do anywhere, but outside of that there is no infrastructure on the ground and he has no known candidates (that I know of) elsewhere. His max lies at 3%, better than Lang, yes, but not enough to be counted in as relevant.

Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

http://www.lepoint.fr/actualites-politique/2010-02-09/paca-la-ligue-du-sud-defie-le-pen-dans-son-jardin/917/0/422056

The FN dissidents that are surely known in the region by those interested by this wing, plus the presence of Bloc Identitaire with them that don't fear to use 'clear messages', in the mood we're living in (identitary/immigration problems, Mc Do affair is one more stuff), with what happened in PACA after Algeria matches for example, the local implantation of this list plus the clarity of their message compared to the good ole tired Le Pen who wanna give the power to his daughter, I wouldn't underestimate them, a dynamic can clearly play in their favor, I maintain at least 6% is possible, and I maintain a 8% Le Pen is possible too there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 22, 2010, 06:46:03 PM
Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

I'm not disputing the fact that the FN is still in decline and temporarily boosted by Sarkozy's unpopularity with the right-wing electorate. In my book, Le Pen will win 12-14% in PACA, which is, as I'm sure you'll agree, quite bad for the FN in its historical base. However, that decline isn't a new thing to 2010. It started in 2007 and the FN's decline has helped the UMP, and a lot of them are still UMP. And those who recently left the FN are of 'opposition' stock and might vote for the PCF/PS (where a lot of them originated from).

As for the well-known candidate, the 'FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004' (that sounds awkward) is a nobody. Go out and poll PACA asking how many people know Guy Macary. I know him because I have no life. I doubt Mr. Machinchouette in Grasse, Aix, Arles or Gap know him. Did you know that Carl Lang won 20% in NPDC in 2004? The same snide comment applies to Macary, who won 20% not because he's some big-wig but because he had the FN apparatus and the little FN logo on the ballot. He's not well-known to voters, a

Regional councillors are largely nobodies except for the top candidate on the list. Bloc Identitaire is a very minor fringe radical quasi-Nazi outfit, which has little weight and little following. Don't be fooled by the name.

Though obviously we will agree to disagree. We'll see on March 14.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 22, 2010, 07:23:00 PM
Well, we're not forced to agree. But I think the good ole time of FN in PACA is ending and Le Pen is really out and not that much appealing anymore, plus the message of FN is currently really mixed and the fact that he cooptes his daughter don't please to a lot of people in traditional FN. Just for this I'd say that Ligue du Sud can go high, and recently I fell on this article of lepoint.fr that made me know them a little better, and actually it was far more than I expected, and for example, you spoke about not known candidate, they have the FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004:

I'm not disputing the fact that the FN is still in decline and temporarily boosted by Sarkozy's unpopularity with the right-wing electorate. In my book, Le Pen will win 12-14% in PACA, which is, as I'm sure you'll agree, quite bad for the FN in its historical base. However, that decline isn't a new thing to 2010. It started in 2007 and the FN's decline has helped the UMP, and a lot of them are still UMP. And those who recently left the FN are of 'opposition' stock and might vote for the PCF/PS (where a lot of them originated from).

As for the well-known candidate, the 'FN candidate who did more than 20% in 2004' (that sounds awkward) is a nobody. Go out and poll PACA asking how many people know Guy Macary. I know him because I have no life. I doubt Mr. Machinchouette in Grasse, Aix, Arles or Gap know him. Did you know that Carl Lang won 20% in NPDC in 2004? The same snide comment applies to Macary, who won 20% not because he's some big-wig but because he had the FN apparatus and the little FN logo on the ballot. He's not well-known to voters, a

Regional councillors are largely nobodies except for the top candidate on the list. Bloc Identitaire is a very minor fringe radical quasi-Nazi outfit, which has little weight and little following. Don't be fooled by the name.

Though obviously we will agree to disagree. We'll see on March 14.

Well, as you could have seen I don't put all my arguments on Guy Macary. Bloc Identitaire can make a lot of noise in the context we are living and with a FN seen more and more as mild. For this and all what I have said, by now I'd maintain the figures I gave.

But, yes, of course, now we can just see March 14.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on February 23, 2010, 11:22:42 AM
Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2010, 11:39:46 AM
Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 23, 2010, 11:49:59 AM
Every dissident of the FN has been crushed, unless he is first a local baron (but, in this case, he is only able to do well in his baronny).

That's because all the dissidents were real extreme-rightists and because they left because of ideological fights (Le Gallou, Martinez, Bernard Antony-Romain Marie) or because of strictly personal ambitions (Mégret, Lang - but, please note that these 2 were, what is more, "intellectual" far-rightists, not at all popular among protest voters...).

Bompard and Spieler are local barons (the mayor of Nice was one, also).

So the FN voters, who are, for 90% of them, only protest voters, don't follow the dissidents.

This isn't the end of the FN. Unfortunately. They are harmful enough for the right to make victories in Champagne-Ardenne, Franche-Comté and PACA impossible.

The day we will be able to say that the FN is out is when Le Pen will be died. Physically.
But, with the media Schadenfreude to have PanzerGirl as a prime-time guest, well, it's possible that the now powerful-for-more-than-a-generation FN will last for very long, even though at 8-10% rather than 12-15%.

More than a generation means that, maybe, the children of FN voters are now old enough to vote themselves: that's the real political victory for a party...

My only hope is that Panzer Girl is positioning herself at the left, with appeal to blue-collar voters: so I hope it will be able less harmful for the right... But that's only a small hope.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on February 23, 2010, 02:00:13 PM
Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?

They submitted lists in each of the five departments, but they are campaigning in Loire-Atlantique only.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2010, 03:56:45 PM
Pays de la Loire: Jean-Philippe Magnen (EE) (Or Béchu. Anybody but that piece of sh**t Auxiette, who should get run over by a truck)

I expected you to endorse Jacky Flippot from the Parti breton.

Are you basing your endorsement on the issue of the airport in Notre-Dame-des-Landes? Personally, I will hold my nose and support Auxiette because, while I like the Greens, I think they're wrong in opposing the airport.

I'm not sure on the status of the PB in Pays-de-la-Loire due to the new electoral system which prevents parties from running lists in only one department of the region. Is the PB seriously running a list in PDL, with candidates for seats in Mayenne, Sarthe, Maine-et-Loire and Vendee?

They submitted lists in each of the five departments, but they are campaigning in Loire-Atlantique only.

I long for the pre-2004 system.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 23, 2010, 04:15:05 PM
What date are these elections?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 23, 2010, 04:17:53 PM
March 14 and 21.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 23, 2010, 04:47:33 PM
There's also a by-election in a rural Lozere canton on March 21, ftr.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 24, 2010, 11:00:14 AM
IFOP in PACA:

UMP 29%
PS 28%
FN 16%
EE 12%
FG 6.5%
MoDem 2.5%
NPA 2.5%
AEI 1.5%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

PS 49%
UMP 36%
FN 15%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 24, 2010, 12:21:35 PM
IFOP in PACA:

UMP 29%
PS 28%
FN 16%
EE 12%
FG 6.5%
MoDem 2.5%
NPA 2.5%
AEI 1.5%
Ligue du Sud 1%
LO 1%

PS 49%
UMP 36%
FN 15%

Good for Le Pen.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 25, 2010, 08:12:55 PM
IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2010, 08:31:44 AM
IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

and 61% for Rousset in a runoff.

BVA in Midi-Pyrenees

PS 37 %
UMP 25%
Greens 17%
FN 9%
FG 6%
MoDem 3%
NPA 2%
LO 1%

PS 68%
UMP 32%

http://www.20minutes.fr/article/387422/Toulouse-Une-gauche-relookee-et-une-droite-en-short.php

lol. The PS is likely to break 60% in the eventuality of a duel runoff in BZH, Poitou, Aquitaine, Midi, Limousin (o/c), maybe even Auvergne if it comes bad. Must've forgotten something.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 26, 2010, 09:45:54 AM
IFOP in Aquitaine

Rousset (PS) 31%
Darcos (UMP) 24%
Lassalle (MoDem) 12%
de Marco (EE) 11%
Colombier (FN) 8%
Boulanger (FG) 7%
Others 7% (the file isn't up on the ifop site yet)

Considering that most of the CPNT (7% in 2004) here is left-leaning, 24% for the UMP isn't that bad. Darcos got 18% in 2004 - first round.

Also a good result for the MoDem, and probably the only place where they'll break 10%.

and 61% for Rousset in a runoff.

BVA in Midi-Pyrenees

PS 37 %
UMP 25%
Greens 17%
FN 9%
FG 6%
MoDem 3%
NPA 2%
LO 1%

PS 68%
UMP 32%

http://www.20minutes.fr/article/387422/Toulouse-Une-gauche-relookee-et-une-droite-en-short.php

lol. The PS is likely to break 60% in the eventuality of a duel runoff in BZH, Poitou, Aquitaine, Midi, Limousin (o/c), maybe even Auvergne if it comes bad. Must've forgotten something.
And in Nord-Pas-de-Calais (still in case of a duel, but it won't be the case).

These results are really big and this is not CSA !
I don't know what Sarkozy will do after that.
He doesn't seem to want to change Fillon (indeed, things would be worse...).
Make Borloo create a new centre-right party or alliance and transforming the UMP in a big coalition ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 26, 2010, 01:11:12 PM
...or maybe wait for the elections to be hold, hey, not a bad idea!

Well, climate is pretty nasty, this ambiance plus polls that continue to say that 'everything is won!', plus stakes that don't seem present at all, in an ambiance of rather resignation, could let a lot of independent/left-leaning at home.

Wouldn't be surprised of something around 45% turnout by now, good for UMP and EE then.

All of this while debates are clearly for the right, with a not clear FN, an old Le Pen, and UMP chasing on the right of the right. I maintain there could be surprises, maybe significant ones.

Well, at least that is an analysis, instead of 'polls say, period'.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 26, 2010, 02:23:20 PM
Sarkozy doesnt care about regional elections. he considers, and he's right IMO, that presidential election will be different for lots reasons: turnout, candidates, topics,...

Even a crushing defeat for UMP will not alter the chance of Sarkozy to be reelected.

Another interessant thing: criminality is the second topic mentioned in the ifop polls. And secondly, the last polls (Paca, MP and Aquitaine) show a FN in progression, not so way off than their 2004 level).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 26, 2010, 05:30:31 PM
Correction to Midi: the 32% for the UMP is in case of a three-way with Onesta, which Malvy would win easily 46-32-22. As Benwah said, there's bad blood here, and the Green list here in 2004 (8% or so) didn't merge with the Malvy list. Taking a dip at the runoff here would help them show their independence a bit.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 26, 2010, 05:39:39 PM
Correction to Midi: the 32% for the UMP is in case of a three-way with Onesta, which Malvy would win easily 46-32-22. As Benwah said, there's bad blood here, and the Green list here in 2004 (8% or so) didn't merge with the Malvy list. Taking a dip at the runoff here would help them show their independence a bit.

We'll see but I'd be really surprised it happens, Onesta is a serious guy and can make damages, but in the same debate, he said he has been very happy of the attitude of far-left with him, and say he could ally with them if possible to stand up against PS, but the guy of the far-left said he will do everything to make win the left (then allying with PS), so...

I really tend to think it was a way for Onesta to express his anger toward Malvy for his behavior until now, but I'd be really surprised Onesta takes the risk of maintaining himself, plus maybe things will happen nationally between PS and EE between the 2 rounds, and national directions could impose things in regions.

Anyways, Malvy didn't really appear as upset about this, though, well, let's see...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 27, 2010, 10:40:47 AM
A bit more about this, Midi-Pyrénées couldn't be the only one concerned, at least in current declarations, here they speak about it for Rhône-Alpes and Poitou-Charentes as well:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/3/20100226/tpl-regionales-europe-ecologie-duflot-cfb2994_2.html

Would be fun in Poitou-Charentes to see how Ségolène deals with it, and well, if Colomb continues the 'Frêche is my good ole buddy' could be good for EE there, and could also incite them to maintain themselves in the second run. Though all of this can be, like for Onesta I tend to think, mainly to impress. Though, I'm waiting for EE results in Rhône-Alpes.

Also, maybe you've seen it:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/63/20100226/tfr-affiche-anti-musulmans-du-fn-la-licr-019dcf9_1.html

Well, sure, if FN comes back to good ole methods, they can challenge Bloc Identitaire in PACA, but the latter are some specialists in these kinds of methods, to be seen...

Anyways, amusingly enough:

http://fr.news.yahoo.com/76/20100225/tpl-le-fn-accus-d-avoir-copi-l-affiche-s-894f5eb_2.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2010, 10:56:54 AM
The Greenies have been lukewarm partners with Royal in Poitou so far, so it wouldn't be entirely surprising; and they have had digs on Rhône-Alpes for quite some time (since June, basically). Though I think this is only a little temper tantrum on their part to affirm their independence, just like the NC played its little tantrum earlier this year when it threatened separate lists in IdF, Alsace, Bretagne et al. Nothing will come of nothing, so the Greenies must do something in order to get something even though they'll probably do nothing in the end.

The FN thing looks like a SVP thing in Switzerland.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 27, 2010, 10:59:36 AM
The FN thing looks like a SVP thing in Switzerland.

Hence the 3rd link of my post.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2010, 01:59:16 PM
More on EE's threat: http://regionales.blog.lemonde.fr/2010/02/26/europe-ecologie-lance-un-bras-de-fer-avec-le-ps/#xtor=RSS-32280322

It mentions Poitou-Charentes, Midi-Pyrénées, Rhône-Alpes and... Bretagne. The only region were a EE-PS-UMP runoff might hurt the left's chances at holding the region are in Rhône-Alpes (despite the article saying it could help the right in Poitou as well, but journalists don't know squat about voting patterns).

We'll see if it's a temper tantrum or a real threat in the next few days, I guess.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 27, 2010, 04:02:36 PM
Ifop poll (Paris)

02/25-26

Pecresse (UMP): 32 % (=)
Huchon (PS): 25 % (+1)
Duflot (EE): 15 % (-2)

Arnautu (FN): 7,5 % (-0,5)
Front de gauche: 7 % (+1)
Modem: 5 % (=)
Besancenot (NPA): 3 % (-1)
Aignant (debout la République): 2,5 % (=)

Huchon: 55 %
Pecresse: 45 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 27, 2010, 04:03:26 PM
Paris or IdF? There's a difference you know.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on February 27, 2010, 08:18:55 PM
...or maybe wait for the elections to be hold, hey, not a bad idea!

Well, climate is pretty nasty, this ambiance plus polls that continue to say that 'everything is won!', plus stakes that don't seem present at all, in an ambiance of rather resignation, could let a lot of independent/left-leaning at home.

Wouldn't be surprised of something around 45% turnout by now, good for UMP and EE then.

All of this while debates are clearly for the right, with a not clear FN, an old Le Pen, and UMP chasing on the right of the right. I maintain there could be surprises, maybe significant ones.

Well, at least that is an analysis, instead of 'polls say, period'.

But my analysis is that the abstention, even if it hurts the left, will first hurt... the UMP !

Because it seems over and because some of the PS regional barons aren't so bad (Rousset, Queyranne, Le Drian, Malvy, Patriat, Beauvais, even Huchon).

Because many of the voters who were former FN voters and Sarkozy voters in 2007 but who weren't from the left "sociologically" will abstain. An dthose who are "sociologically" leftists will vote for Mélenchon and the PCF.
Many mainstream rightists will abstain because of failed or uncompleted "reforms" and because of Frédéric Mitterrand or Michel Charasse.
Many MPF, DLR or former Pasqua voters will abstain, now that they don't have "their" lists.

Plus, with a Sarkozy, when the elections are won, he is adored. When the elections begin to be lost, he will be hated inside the right and the revenge will translate in the ballot boxes.

(Myself, I'm a mainstream rightist, a "légitimiste" one, we can say; but I'm really fed up and I will hesitate until the end; fortunately, there isn't anything in the center-right or between the UMP and the FN; so, my vote isn't lost for the UMP, but who knows... ;))


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 28, 2010, 05:59:07 AM
Paris or IdF? There's a difference you know.

IDF of course (the "great paris" lol)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 28, 2010, 12:03:37 PM
Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

PS 31% (+2)
UMP-NC 27.5% (-2)
EE 13% (+2)
FN 9.5 (+0.5)
FG 6.5% (=)
MoDem 4% (-1)
NPA 2% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (+0.5)
FG+NPA/NPA+PG 1% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1 (=)
Others 2% (-1)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 28, 2010, 12:06:31 PM
Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

PS 31% (+2)
UMP-NC 27.5% (-2)
EE 13% (+2)
FN 9.5 (+0.5)
FG 6.5% (=)
MoDem 4% (-1)
NPA 2% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (+0.5)
FG+NPA/NPA+PG 1% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1 (=)
Others 2% (-1)



Where is ipsos when we need it.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on February 28, 2010, 01:29:58 PM
Ifop NPDC (yes !)

PS: 27 %
UMP: 20 %
FN: 17 %
EE: 12 %
Front de gauche: 10,5 %

PS: 54 %
UMP: 29 %
FN: 17 %

The result of the FN is the same than in 2004. Good for Marine. The question is to know if FN will do better than UMP. Second question, will Marine do better than her father in Paca?

Considering his last polls, Ifop sees a progression of the FN and PS, a decline of UMP and a bog failur for Modem.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on February 28, 2010, 01:44:22 PM
The 2004 runoff results were:

PS 52
UMP 28
FN 20

Not very surprisingly, the FN's decline benefits the PS more than the UMP in a region where FN voters are often working class ex-lefties.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 01, 2010, 10:32:11 AM
Awful results for the UMP in Alsace (but it is CSA, you know)...

Richert (UMP) 33%
Bigot (PS) 19%
Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 15%
Binder (FN) 12%
Werhling (MoDem) 5%
Santiago (Europe sociale) 4%
Cordonnier (Alsace d'abord) 5%
Zimmermann (NPA) 2%
Wostyn (LO) 2%
Causer (FG) 2%
Stirby (DVD) 1%

Turnout 54%

Runoff

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 46%
Richert (UMP) 42%
Binder (FN) 12%

Bigot (PS) 46%
Richert (UMP) 41%
Binder (FN) 12%

Fernique (Europe Ecologie/MEI) 53%
Richert (UMP) 47%

Bigot (PS) 55%
Richert (UMP) 45%

http://www.csa-fr.com/dataset/data2010/opi20100224-intentions-de-vote-en-region-alsace-dans-la-perspective-des-elections-regionales-de-mars-2010.pdf


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 01, 2010, 10:40:22 AM
lulz.

A 26-region full sweep by the left would be funny, very funny indeed. I still hope Fernique can pull ahead of the Bigot in Alsace (sorry, couldn't resist).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 01, 2010, 11:14:56 AM
Ifop national poll: PS takes the lead.

If there's supposed to be some type of 'UMP return', they better hurry up.

You might have seen that I decided not to care a lot about polls.

I really think abstention will be very high for all reasons I've explained several times and that it could be quite good for UMP and EE. I also think it would be hard to poll EE. And I also think this PS triomphalism is very bad for them, triomphalist polls as well.

And I must also say that the fact that everybody, almost the journalist class as whole, doesn't try to go further than 'POLLS SAY. PERIOD', beyond the fact i find it foolish, and a bit short as an analysis, it leads me to try to look in an other direction, though, I don't do that by principle, I wouldn't if I didn't see some relevance.

We'll see, campaign just began one week ago with the - 2nd but only one which made noise ::) - Soumaré affair. It just begin and remains 2 week of campaign then.

I maintain PS could have big surprises.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 01, 2010, 11:38:45 AM
You might also have noticed that I don't place absolute trust in polls (as judged by my comments about CSA lol polls), but I do understand that they're not absolutely wrong and they tell, generally well, the current mood (French pollsters being generally quite good, compared to other nations). I also understand the election is not today, and things can change, but it's getting rather late for the UMP to turn things around from where they are today. I predict turnout to be around 50-55%, which is very low for a non-Euro election in France.

CSA poll in Centre
Novelli (UMP) 30%
Bonneau (PS) 24%
Delavergne (EE) 15%
Loiseau (FN) 11%
Beaufils (FG) 6%
Fesneau (MoDem) 5%
Megdoud (LO) 4%
Lasserre (NPA) 3%
Verdon (PDF) 2%

Bonneau (PS) 50%
Novelli (UMP) 38%
Loiseau (FN) 12%

Bonneau (PS) 59%
Novelli (UMP) 41%

59-41 seems way too big, but CSA sucks as rule. Didn't bother to look at crosstabs much.

OpinionWay in Corse (weird that they poll there)
Rocca Serra (UMP) 22%
Simeoni (PNC) 17%
Bucchini (FG) 12%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 12%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 10%
Renucci (CSD) 6%
Baccarelli (AEI) 6%
Cardi (FN) 6%
Talamoni (CL) 6%
Toma (MoDem) 2%
Battini (DVD) 1%

Giacobbi-Zuccarelli-Renucci (PRG-PS-CSD) 32%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 29%
Simeoni (PNC) 19%
Bucchini (FG) 12%
Talamoni (CL) 8%

Giacobbi-Simeoni-Renucci (PRG-PS-PNC-CSD) 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 33%
Bucchini (FG) 14%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 12%

Giacobbi-Bucchini-Zuccarelli-Renucci (PRG-PS-FG-CSD) 45%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 33%
Simeoni-Talamoni (PNC) 22%

(the threshold here is now 7%, so


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 03, 2010, 09:48:11 AM
CSA poll in Centre
Novelli (UMP) 31%
Bonneau (PS) 24%
Delavergne (EE) 15%
Loiseau (FN) 8%
Beaufils (FG) 7%
Fesneau (MoDem) 6%
Verdon (PDF) 3.5%
Lasserre (NPA) 3%
Megdoud (LO) 2.5%

Bonneau (PS) 48%
Novelli (UMP) 42%
Loiseau (FN) 10%

Bonneau (PS) 54%
Novelli (UMP) 46%

Much more reasonable runoff numbers than CSA, of course.

Ifop in Poitou-Charentes (change on last Ifop poll)
Royal (PS) 35% (+2)
Bussereau (UMP) 29% (nc)
Coutant (EE) 12.5% (-1.5)
Lacoste-Lareymondie (FN) 8% (+1)
Monier (MoDem) 6% (+1)
Jean (FG) 5.5% (+0.5)
Rossignol (NPA) 3% (-1)
Gaillard (LO) 1% (nc)

Royal (PS) 56% (-1)
Bussereau (UMP) 44% (+1)

OpinionWay in "Pays-de-la-Loire"
Bechu (UMP) 32%
Auxiette (PS) 30%
Magnen (EE) 15%
Gallerneau (MoDem-AEI) 7%
Gicquel (FG-NPA) 6%
Neveux (FN) 6%
Le Beller (LO) 3%
Flippot (PB-NTFB) 1%

Auxiette (PS) 55%
Bechu (UMP) 45%

Well, it's obvious the the sack of crap will win, but 55-45 seems a tad too generous with him. 53-47 seems more like it, to me.

And some extra numbers for the Ifop poll in NPDC:
MoDem 5%
LO 3%
NPA 2.5%
'jeunes agriculteurs' 1.5%
CNI-"Ch'tis list" 1.5%

Hopefully there's some sort of poll in Bretagne soon, mostly for the first round which could be interesting with the 'rural list' and Troadec's list.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2010, 06:24:41 PM
There was a TNS-Sofres poll in Lorraine, but the results are so lolworthy that I don't feel the need to waste my time on it.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 05, 2010, 05:18:51 PM
There was a TNS-Sofres poll in Lorraine, but the results are so lolworthy that I don't feel the need to waste my time on it.

Apparently those idiots are re-doing it. They've polled Champagne-Ardenne (57-43 for the left in runoff. LOL)

OpinionWay poll nationally (I'm starting to really like OpinionWay given the current stock of pollsters, CSA and Sofres rofl).

UMP 31% (-1)
PS 27% (+1)
Greenies 13% (-1)
FN 9% (nc)
FG 6% (+1)
MoDem 5% (nc)
NPA 3% (+1)
DVG 2% (+1)
LO 1% (nc)
AEI 1% (-1)
DVD 1% (nc)
Others 1% (-1)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 06, 2010, 05:36:09 AM
A good poll for UMP but, unfortunatly for this party, it's a sofres poll !

Alsace (03/2-4)

UMP: 41 %
PS: 17 %
EE: 17 %

FN: 9 %
Modem: 4 %


UMP: 55 %
EE- PS (Fernique): 45 %

UMP: 53 %
PS-EE (Bigot): 47 %

UMP: 49 %
EE-PS (Fernique): 42 %
FN: 9 %

UMP: 47 %
PS-EE (Bigot): 44 %
FN: 9 %

The alsace csa poll (02/23-24):

UMP: 33 %
PS: 19 %
EE: 15 %
FN: 12 %

Turnout: 54 %

UMP: 41 %
PS / EE: 46 %
FN: 13 %

UMP: 42 %
EE/PS: 46 %
FN: 12 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 06, 2010, 06:00:08 AM
CSA national (03/02-03)

PS: 31 % (+1)
UMP: 27 % (-2)

EE: 14 % (-1)
FN: 9 % (+1)
FG: 6 % (+1)
Modem: 5 % (=)





Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 06, 2010, 09:15:51 AM
Sofres has a small sample (700) in Alsace, and there's no way Richert, who's a jerk and has no crossover appeal, will poll 41% when a man like Zeller polled only 34% in the 2004 first round.

Sofres has been awful lately, worse than CSA even.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 06, 2010, 06:05:17 PM
Sofres has a small sample (700) in Alsace, and there's no way Richert, who's a jerk and has no crossover appeal, will poll 41% when a man like Zeller polled only 34% in the 2004 first round.

Sofres has been awful lately, worse than CSA even.

I agree of course (even if I consider 700 like not a small sample).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 08, 2010, 03:42:56 PM
New Opinion way poll confirms sofres for Alsace:

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/images/POL-201009-alsace-regionales.jpg


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 09, 2010, 11:18:34 AM
Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 09, 2010, 01:16:19 PM
Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

Not me, electoral maps are not my stuffs, though you know that you'll find someone into it on that thread. But, anyways, not sure it's useless to make from polls, wait the election, it's on 2 Sundays to come.

I received my electoral card finally, good.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 09, 2010, 02:20:47 PM
Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

If Alsace polls are correct, just look at the 2004 map, just with Corse red instead of blue. But making real predictions in Corse is kinda foolish.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 09, 2010, 05:23:48 PM
Avalanche of polls

Ifop in Picardie

Cayeux (UMP) 29%
Gewerc (PS) 23%
Porquier (EE) 14%
Guiniot (FN) 13.5%
Gremetz (Stalinist) 6%
Aury (FG) 5.5%
Mathieu (MoDem) 5.5%

Gewerc (PS) 48%
Cayeux (UMP) 39%
Guiniot (FN) 14%

Abstention around 46%

Comment: Very good for Greenies, disappointing for the FN, good result for the combined Communists, surprisingly high MoDem, disappointing runoff for the left (speaking in current conditions).



OpinionWay in Centre

Novelli (UMP) 31%
Bonneau (PS) 27%
Delavergne (EE) 16%
Loiseau (FN) 9%
Beaufils (FG) 5%
Megdoud (LO) 4%
Verdon (PDF) 3%
Fesneau (MoDem) 3%
Lasserre (NPA) 2%

Bonneau (PS) 53%
Novelli (UMP) 36%
Loiseau (FN) 11%

Bonneau (PS) 60%
Novelli (UMP) 40%

Comments: 60-40 runoff (coming from a 66-34 split of FN votes in favour of the PS) seems a wee bit excessive. 40% of FN votes for the UMP would already make more sense.



TNS-Sofres in Rhone-Alpes

Grossetête (UMP) 28%
Queyranne (PS) 25%
Meirieu (EE) 21%
Gollnisch (FN) 8%
Begag (MoDem) 7%
Martin (FG) 6%
Arthaud (LO) 2%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Dulac (Spartakus) 1%

Queyranne (PS) 62%
Grossetête (UMP) 38%

Queyranne (PS) 57%
Grossetête (UMP) 35%
Gollnisch (FN) 8%

Queyranne (PS) 36%
Grossetête (UMP) 33%
Meirieu (EE) 24%
Gollnisch (FN) 7%

Comment: As always, TNS-Sofres has unusually huge numbers for the left in the runoff which aren't entirely off the point but are excessively high.



TNS-Sofres in Basse-Normandie

Beauvais (PS-PCF) 31%
Le Grand (UMP) 30.5%
Dufour (EE) 14%
Thomas (MoDem) 8%
Dupont (FN) 7%
Coulon (NPA-PG) 5%
Casevitz (LO) 3%
Le Rachinel (PDF) 1.5%

Beauvais (PS-PCF) 57%
Le Grand (UMP) 43%

Comment: again, 57-43 is excessive. Nothing wrong with the crosstabs of transfers that they show, but those sneaky people don't show the transfers for the FN! Good result for the MoDem in a traditionally strong region for them and where they have a good, young candidate who has a centre-right past.



TNS-Sofres in Haute-Normandie

Le Vern (PS) 36%
Le Maire (UMP) 25%
Bay (FN) 10%
Taleb (EE) 9%
Jumel (FG) 8%
Jeanne (MoDem) 3%
Lapeyre (LO) 3%
Poupin (NPA) 2%
Frau (AEI) 2%
Lang (PDF) 1.5%
Briere (DLR) 0.5%

Le Vern (PS) 57%
Le Maire (UMP) 32%
Bay (FN) 11%

Le Vern (PS) 60%
Le Maire (UMP) 40%

Comments: the crosstabs to justify a 60-40 runoff don't seem too messed up



TNS-Sofres in Languedoc-Roussillon

Frêche (DVG) 34%
Couderc (UMP) 24%
Mandroux (PS) 10%
Roumegas (EE) 9%
Revol (FG-NPA) 9%
Jamet (FN) 7%
Drevet (AEI) 4%
Jeanjean (DVD) 1%
Roudier (Ligue du Midi) 1%
Plana (LO) 0.5%
Martinez (PDF) 0.5%

Frêche (DVG) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 31%
Roumegas (EE-PS-FG-NPA) 29%

Frêche (DVG) 40%
Couderc (UMP) 30%
Mandroux (PS-EE-FG-NPA) 30%



Ifop in Corse

Rocca Serra (UMP) 23.5%
Simeoni (PNC) 15.5%
Giacobbi (PRG-PS) 15%
Talamoni (CL) 9.5%
Zuccarelli (PRG) 9%
Bucchini (FG) 8%
Renucci (CSD) 6%
Baccarelli (AEI) 6%
Cardi (FN) 5%
Toma (MoDem) 1.5%
Battini (DVD) 1%

United Left 41%
Rocca Serra (UMP) 31%
Simeoni-Talamoni (PNC-CL) 26%



Ipsos in Reunion

Vergès (PCR-FreeDom-MoDem) 33.5%
Robert (UMP) 19%
Vergoz (PS) 13%
Defaud (EE) 9%
Virapoullé (DVD) 8%
Magamootoo (DVD aut) 7.5%
Ramassamy (DVD aut) 4%
Thien Ah Koon (DVD) 3%
Arnachellum (DVD aut) 1%
Pouny (DVD aut) 1%
Payet (LO) 1%
Boyer (Ind) 0%

aut means autonomist.

Interesting file on the candidates and lists:
http://www.ifop.com/media/pressdocument/163-1-document_file.pdf


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 09, 2010, 05:45:38 PM
Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

If Alsace polls are correct, just look at the 2004 map, just with Corse red instead of blue. But making real predictions in Corse is kinda foolish.

I think that Alsace will mainly depend of the FN results in the first round. It's to be the only region where the UMP seems to take advantage of the absence of the FN in the runoff, and the FN is surprisingly low here, compared to NPDC for example...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 09, 2010, 05:54:23 PM
Can someone please do a regional map which shows pickups or change from the leading party according to the last polls ?

If Alsace polls are correct, just look at the 2004 map, just with Corse red instead of blue. But making real predictions in Corse is kinda foolish.

I think that Alsace will mainly depend of the FN results in the first round. It's to be the only region where the UMP seems to take advantage of the absence of the FN in the runoff, and the FN is surprisingly low here, compared to NPDC for example...

Generally, the FN voter in Alsace tends to be much less working-class and more white-rural-Protestant conservative. So it does make sense that the FN is doing poorly and the UMP benefits.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 10, 2010, 08:32:23 AM
TNS-Sofres in PACA

Mariani (UMP) 29% (=)
Vauzelle (PS) 27% (-3)
Vichinevsky (EE) 14% (+1)
Le Pen (FN) 13% (=)
Coppola (FG) 6% (+2)
Levraud (MoDem) 4% (+2)
Bompard (LDS) 2% (=)
Miran (AEI) 2% (-1)
Godard (NPA) 1.5% (+0.5)
Bonnet (LO) 1.5% (-0.5)

Vauzelle (PS) 51% (+2)
Mariani (UMP) 36% (-1)
Le Pen (FN) 13% (-1)

Vauzelle (PS) 55% (+2)
Mariani (UMP) 45% (-2)

TNS-Sofres in Idf

Pecresse (UMP) 30% (-2)
Huchon (PS) 26% (=)
Duflot (EE) 18% (+4)
Laurent (FG) 7% (=)
Besancenot (NPA) 6% (+0.5)
Arnautu (FN) 4% (-1)
Dolium (MoDem) 4% (=)
NDA (DLR) 2.5% (-1.5)
Governatori (AEI) 1% (=)
Mercier (LO) 1% (-0.5)
Kanoute (DVG) 0.5%

Huchon (PS) 60% (+2)
Pecresse (UMP) 40% (-2)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 11, 2010, 05:01:41 PM
Ifop in "Pays-de-la-Loire"

Bechu (UMP) 31.5%
Auxiette (PS) 29%
Magnen (EE) 14%
Gicquel (FG-NPA) 8%
Neveux (FN) 7.5%
Gallerneau (MoDem-AEI) 6.5%
Le Beller (LO) 2%
Flippot (PB-NTFB) 1.5%

Auxiette (PS) 56%
Bechu (UMP) 44%

If you're going to buy runoff polling before the actual first round (which I don't), then the general image which Sofres (which is sh**t), Ifop and also OpinionWay sees is that the runoffs could be absolutely brutal, but absolutely brutal, for the right. On this poll, 8% for the FG seems a bit high. The PCF is strong only in parts of Sarthe and limited parts of Loire-Atlantique...

Also, 1.5% for the Parti Breton here would be great. Region-wide, they won 0.6% or so in the Euros, so 1.5% regionwide would be absolutely glorious.

OpinionWay in Rhone-Alpes

Grossetête (UMP) 28%
Queyranne (PS) 27%
Meirieu (EE) 20%
Gollnisch (FN) 9%
Martin (FG) 6%
Begag (MoDem) 5%
Arthaud (LO) 2%
Combet (NPA) 2%
Dulac (Spartakus) 1%

Queyranne (PS) 61%
Grossetête (UMP) 39%

Queyranne (PS) 57%
Grossetête (UMP) 34%
Gollnisch (FN) 9%

The numbers in a two-way runoff are weird: the transfers of FG, EE, MD and FN voters to the left are 86, 94, 58, 20. Makes no sense.

Ifop national poll

PS 29.5% (-1.5)
UMP 29.5% (+2)
EE 12% (-1)
FN 9% (-0.5)
FG 6% (-0.5)
MoDem 4.5% (+0.5)
NPA 1.5% (-0.5)
LO 1.5% (nc)
FG-NPA 1.5% (+0.5)
AEI 1% (nc)
DVD 1% (nc)
Other 3% (+1)

Bayrou 2007 voters: UMP 31, PS 27, MoDem 19, EE 15 etc


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 11, 2010, 05:15:35 PM
TNS-Sofres in Franche-Comté... apparently all hope is not lost for the derecha.

Joyandet (UMP) 36%
Dufay (PS) 29%
Fousseret (EE) 10%
Montel (FN) 9%
Ternant (FG) 4%
Grudler (MoDem-AEI) 3%
Treppo (LO) 3%
Lyonnais (NPA) 2.5%
Buchot (ecologie solidaire) 2.5%
Devilliers (Fascist) 1%

Dufay (PS) 50%
Joyandet (UMP) 41%
Montel (FN) 9%

Dufay (PS) 52%
Joyandet (UMP) 48%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 12, 2010, 08:02:52 AM
()

also, interesting runoff departmental breakdowns:

Quote
Miracle collatéral de ces régionales, la réunion publique de Neuilly à laquelle ont participé plus de 200 militants des Hauts-de-Seine, était organisée conjointement par Jean Sarkozy et Jean-Christophe Fromantin, maire de Neuilly. Une première rencontre publique depuis les municipales qui ont vu la droite s'entre-déchirer. Dans ce département, la gauche, au deuxième tour, serait toujours en tête avec 51 %. Elle était à 59 % en décembre. Dans le Val-d'Oise - conséquence de l'affaire Ali Soumaré ? -, la gauche obtiendrait 61 % ; toujours moins qu'en Seine-Saint-Denis : 74 %. Huchon totaliserait 55 % à Paris et serait à égalité avec Pécresse dans les Yvelines, où tous deux sont têtes de liste.

Latest polling nationally also seems to indicate a slight boost of voting intentions for the Greenies.

Also, in IDF, the Greenies' latest dare is to become the first left-wing party in terms of seat: «C'est mécanique, explique-t-il, si l'on croit les sondages, la droite aura 70 sièges et la gauche 140, soit une vingtaine au Front de gauche, une dizaine au PRG, autant au MRC et ensuite, les Verts et le PS au coude-à-coude…» (in 2004, the left had 130 seats, the right 64 and the FN 15. The FN will lose all seats).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 12, 2010, 08:32:24 AM
Apart from that, the Greens are here for "another way to do politics"... ::)

Ton abréviation NTFB n'est pas très heureuse... Cela fait un peu "Nique ta foutue Bretagne"... ;)
Désolé, ce n'est pas de très bon goût, mais je n'ai pas pu m'empêcher...
Depuis NTM, tout ce qui commence par NT... est un peu problématique !

It seems as if there was a little awareness on the right that the result could be a disaster, and so maybe a lil' more "activity".
I'm afraid the latest Sarkozy's so-called "coup de pouce" will again dump the last right chances... By trying a so old trick 3 days before the polling day...

In 3 years, Sarkozy, who brought a real plus in electoral terms for the right, has become a liability and a burden.
That's amazing.
But the pace of medias and of political life has fastened, so I guess it's logical so these very swift changes.
Even in 1982-1985, Mitterrand wasn't personally an overweight for the left: he was just down like all the left. And thanks to cohabitation, he restored his asset status.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 12, 2010, 11:08:02 AM
Ton abréviation NTFB n'est pas très heureuse... Cela fait un peu "Nique ta foutue Bretagne"... ;)
Désolé, ce n'est pas de très bon goût, mais je n'ai pas pu m'empêcher...
Depuis NTM, tout ce qui commence par NT... est un peu problématique !

C'est pour ca que j'aime mieux dire le Parti breton ou Strollad Breizh...

Which brings me to a rant on the list names...

The UMP's catch name includes 'ensemble'. Ensemble what? Together we'll get trounced? Together we'll fail?
The Left Front is: Ensemble pour une [REGION] a gauche, solidaire, ecologique et citoyenne... What's a 'région citoyenne'?
The NPA, is, as always, apparently "100% left" but now it's also 'ecologique' and 'social'...
Fernard Le Rachinel in Basse-Normandie apparently likes to kill trees and ink: POUR NOTRE NORMANDIE, NOS EMPLOIS, NOTRE SECURITE, NOS FAMILLES, NOS TRADITIONS, NOTRE IDENTITE. LE PARTI DE LA FRANCE. LISTE D'UNION DES NATIONAUX NORMANDS CONDUITE PAR FERNAND LE RACHINEL
Also in Basse-Normandie, the PS is 'la gauche solidaire, innovante et ecologique'
In Bretagne, Malgorn (UMP) wants us to draw a map: Ensemble, dessinons la Bretagne. KK, give me paper and a pen and I'll draw it. Also in Bretagne, Le Drian shows he's kinda regionalist: La Bretagne solidaire, creative et responsable. Yes, NTFB is a bit dumb as well, but it makes sense if you go further: 'we will make you a nation', something on those lines
According to Bonneau (PS), you're lucky if you live in the Centre: "La région Centre: Plus qu'une région, une chance!". But Novelli says you need to change to live better, and he also doesn't want you to forget his name: HERVÉ NOVELLI: IL FAUT CHANGER POUR MIEUX VIVRE EN RÉGION CENTRE
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) in Franche-Comté: "Une Franche-Comté d'avance, juste, écologique et solidaire"
For Denanot (PS) in the Limousin, despite having a negative growth rate, "Le Limousin, terre d'avenir"
Hénart (UMP) in Lorraine has a weird list name: "Priorité emploi - Rassemblons les Lorrains'
There is "La liste ch'ti" (CNI) in NPDC...
For Cayeux (UMP) in Picardie: "Envie de Picardie". My first reaction was "envie de pipi"
The Stalinist's list in Picardie: "colere et espoir"
The Drug Addict (PS) in the land of crazies: POITOU-CHARENTES, UNE ENERGIE D'AVANCE : L'ECOLOGIE, LES EMPLOIS, LA JUSTICE SOCIALE (where is 'la démocratie participative' or 'l'ordre juste'??)
And other empty worded horrors.

It's interesting to see 'ecologie' and 'ecologique' being the new hot word, for every list!

Also, the word 'solidaire' ought to be banned from these names. Just like 'social'


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 12, 2010, 01:51:46 PM
Hey! Hey!

There is an election on Sunday!!

Nah, nah, I swear, check it out.

...

Well, I just saw the papers that you receive in your mail box today, well, can't read that stuffs, just a bit the FN one, and well, it's quite funny to see the mix of leftist stuffs in it, well amongst some far-rightist ones of course, classical populism.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 12, 2010, 05:51:31 PM
The situation overseas:

Guadeloupe

Victorin Lurel (PS), elected in 2004 defeating the emblematic figure of the right, Lucette Michaux-Chevry (RPR-UMP), is running for re-election. He has managed to obtain the support of the Greenies (notably Harry Durimel, the figure of the overseas-Antillian green movement), the local MoDem, the post-communist PPDG but also part of the GUSR (a centre-left big tent party, on the verge of explosion) and notably the island's sole right-wing deputy, Gabrielle Louis-Carabin, who is in fact second on Lurel's list. Gabrielle Louis-Carabin hates Michaux-Chevry and her daughter Penchard (SoS for Overseas, and as awful as her mother) with a passion and she left the UMP. Somewhat surprising given that Gabrielle Louis-Carabin is historically Sarkozy's local ally, with LMC being Chirac's old crony, but Sarkozy seems to have been influenced by Penchard and the remaining influence of LMC.
Éric Jalton, a former Socialist elected deputy in 2002 with the support of the right is now running to Lurel's left in an attempt to gain the support of the nationalist/syndicalist movements, notably the LKP. He has the support of the nationalist UPLG, as well as another faction of the GUSR and some PS dissidents. Despite running to Lurel's left, it has been rumoured that he has entertained talks of a anti-Lurel front with the UMP.
The candidate of the UMP is Blaise Aldo, mayor of Sainte-Anne, and the candidate favoured by Penchard-Sarkozy. The price of Aldo's candidacy was the destruction of the remnants of the local UMP and an internal right-wing civil war led by Louis-Carabin and other UMP dissidents who wanted the nomination. Aldo has the support of Daniel Marsin, GUSR Senator on the party's right and close to JM Bockel's party. Marsin was candidate in 2004, and is now third on the list. Penchard herself is second on the list.
Originally supposed to run their own list, the UMP dissidents have ended up rallying Jeanny Marc, GUSR (yes, again!) deputy.
Other candidates include two LKP-supported Trots.

2004 results: PS 44.3, UMP 37.6, Marsin 5.5, nats 3.9, Green 2.9, div-Losio 2.1, div 1.6, LO 1.2, div 1 (runoff: PS 58.2, UMP 41.8)

and a poll for RFO:

Lurel (PS-MoDem-Greens-PPDG-GUSR-DVD) 49%
Jalton (DVG-UPLG) 18%
Aldo (UMP-GUSR) 17%
Marc (GUSR-DVG-DVD) 6%
Octavie Losio (DVG) 3%
Cornet (DIV) 2%
Plaisir (EXG) 2%
Nomertin (LO) 1%
Lesueur (DVG) 1%

Guyane

Antoine Karam, PSG incumbent since 1992 is not running for re-election. The left-field to succeed him is vast and divided.
Gabriel Serville is the candidate of the PSG.
Christiane Taubira, PRG-Walwari deputy and 2004 candidate, is running with the support of the Walwari but also the nationalist MDES.
The region's other deputy, Chantal Berthelot (ex-PSG, DVG) is also running with her new tin-pot named party ('A gauche en Guyane' or some other gay name of that genre).
Léon Jean-Baptiste-Édouard is the candidate of th local section of the PS. The PSG isn't the local section of the party, but rather a very old scission of the SFIO in Guyane. The local PS here is irrelevant.
Gil Horth is the candidate of the FDG - a centre-left party whose major figure is fmr. Senator Georges Othily, also close to Bockel.
José Gaillou is the Green candidate. The Greens are usually strong naturally in Guyane, often in the Amazonian hinterlands.
The original candidate of the UMP was the mayor of Saint-Laurent-du-Maroni, former Tourism Minister and former deputy (defeated in 2007 by Berthelot) Leon Bertrand; but given that he's spent some recent time in jail, they dumped him. Their new candidate is surprisingly strong, the DVG mayor of Cayenne - Rodolphe Alexandre (elected in 2008 defeating a PSG incumbent) who's quite popular. Of course, there needs to be egomaniacal dissidents, this time the strongest of the 3 dissidents is Roger Arel, and Leon Bertrand (a Chiraquien) is third on his list. The UMP is hoping to gain this region, and it could actually be it's best hope for a gain (especially if there's egomaniacs on the left, and knowing that annoying sod Taubira, there is).

2004 results: UMP 24.3, PSG 22.5, FDG-Othily 19.3, Taubira 18, nat 6.6, Green 4.9, div 2.6, PS 2 (Runoff: PSG 37.2, UMP 31.6, FDG-Taubira 31.2)

Martinique

There isn't much appetite for independence, but Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM) has been the leader of the region since 1998, mainly due to divided weak opposition and a high personal vote. However, defeated in the status referendum earlier this year and weakened by his age, he is vulnerable, especially given his strong opposition.
Serge Letchimy, the very popular PPM deputy-mayor of Fort-de-France is running on a coalition supported by the PPM and the local PS (FSM).
However, Letchimy will need the support of the RDM - a scission of the PPM formed by Senator/President of the CG Claude Lise in the runoff. Madeleine de Grandmaison, a leftie former MEP is the top candidate, she had been the PPM's 2004 candidate.
Pierre Samot is running again for the BPM, a splinter of the old Communist Party on the island.
The UMP candidate is former deputy André Lesieur, generally inactive in the recent politics on the island. Max Orville, ex-UDF, is the MoDem's candidate.

2004 results: MIM 37.3, PPM 17.2, BPM 16.2, UDF 13.9, UMP 6.8, DVG 4.8, LO 3.1, DVG 0.7 (runoff: MIM 53.8, PPM-BPM 31, UDF 15.2)

Réunion

Paul Vergès, Communist leader of the island since 1998 is running again supported the Alliance, which includes the MoDem and some PS dissidents. His major opponent on the left is Michel Vergoz, already candidate for the PS in 2004. Vincent Defaud is the Green candidate, hoping to break 10% (13% in the Euros).
There is a UMP civil war between Didier Robert, deputy and Jean-Paul Virapoullé, Senator. Sarkozy managed a short-term alliance, but Robert broke from the alliance and Virapoullé is leading a dissident candidacy from Robert (official UMP candidate). André Thien Ah Koon, former deputy, is also running as is Nadia Ramassamy, already a DVD candidate in 2004.

2004 results (main lists): PCR 34.5, UMP 25.7, PS 15.9, Ramassamy 6.1, DVD 3.6 etc. (runoff: PCR 44.9, UMP 32.9, PS 22.3)

Except for Guyane, a very bad situation for the UMP, unsurprising given how Sarkozy has proved to be totally inept and inattentive to the overseas and also how his choice of allies has destroyed what was left of the right in the DOMs... Maybe with the likely trouncing of Penchard's cronies in Guadeloupe, he'll dump that bitch (excuse the language, but I hate her).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 13, 2010, 02:47:08 AM
Régon citoyenne, lol. Left-wing buzzwords. Surprised there's no région sociale.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 13, 2010, 07:14:16 AM
My prediction:

UMP: 27 %
PS: 25 %
EE: 15 %
FN: 11 %
FG: 6 %
Modem: 5 %

turnout: 55 %

Paca:

UMP: 26 %
PS: 25 %
FN: 17 %
EE: 13 %
FG: 7 %

NPDC:

PS: 27 %
FN: 18 %
UMP: 18 %

IDF

UMP: 28 %
PS: 27 %
EE: 16 %
FG: 7 %
FN: 6 %
Modem: 5 %
Debout la république: 5 %

I think that alsace will stay UMP.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 07:22:23 AM
Régon citoyenne, lol. Left-wing buzzwords. Surprised there's no région sociale.

I find 'région écologique' to be even more annoying nowadays, given that it's the buzzword for everybody.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 13, 2010, 10:40:36 AM
Last ifop poll (03/10-12)

UMP: 29 %
PS: 27,5 %
EE: 14 %
FN: 9,5 %
FG: 6 %
Modem: 4,5 %

turnout: 55 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 13, 2010, 10:42:15 AM
Last ifop poll (03/10-12)

UMP: 29 %
PS: 27,5 %
EE: 14 %
FN: 9,5 % (maintain in 8-12 regions)
FG: 6 %
Modem: 4,5 %

turnout: 55 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 11:09:11 AM
I suck at predictions like most people do, but I will give a general classification for major results of interests by region.

Firstly, the chances of the FN to break 10%:
Certainty: PACA, NPDC, Picardie
Very likely: Alsace, Champagne-Ardenne, Haute-Normandie
More likely than not: Franche-Comté, Lorraine, Rhône-Alpes
More unlikely than likely: Bourgogne, Centre, Languedoc-Roussillon
Low: Aquitaine, Corse (7% threshold), Île-de-France, Midi-Pyrénées, Basse-Normandie
Extremely low: Auvergne, BZH, Limousin, PDL, Poitou-Charentes

The MoDem's best results:
Aquitaine (9-12%)
Basse-Normandie (6-9%)
Bretagne (6-9%)

The Left Front's (+ PG-PCFdiss lists) chances to break 5% and be eligible to merge with the PS:
Very likely: Aquitaine, Auvergne, Corse, Languedoc-Roussillon (NPA support), Limousin (NPA support), Midi-Pyrénées, NPDC, Haute-Normandie
Likely: Centre,  Île-de-France,
More likely than not: Bretagne, Franche-Comté, Pays-de-la-Loire (NPA support), Poitou-Charentes, PACA, Rhône-Alpes
More unlikely than likely: Lorraine, Picardie (due to Gremetz)
Extremely low: Alsace
N/A: Bourgogne, Champagne-Ardenne, Basse-Normandie

And, since everybody cares, my prediction for Troadec in Bretagne is between 3 and 4%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 13, 2010, 12:55:39 PM
Régon citoyenne, lol. Left-wing buzzwords. Surprised there's no région sociale.

I find 'région écologique' to be even more annoying nowadays, given that it's the buzzword for everybody.

Yah 'écologique' and 'citoyen' are clearly the buzzwords nowadays, 'social' became totally out, and rather bad connoted, pitiful.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 01:08:33 PM
Régon citoyenne, lol. Left-wing buzzwords. Surprised there's no région sociale.

I find 'région écologique' to be even more annoying nowadays, given that it's the buzzword for everybody.

Yah 'écologique' and 'citoyen' are clearly the buzzwords nowadays, 'social' became totally out, and rather bad connoted, pitiful.

I'm happy that 'la république sociale' is out, for historical reasons.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 01:27:17 PM
TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 13, 2010, 01:31:13 PM
TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 13, 2010, 02:23:12 PM
Isn't the strike at France Télévisions will cancel the electoral coverage?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 03:35:23 PM
TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 05:01:41 PM
A rather old Ifop poll for only Alpes-Maritimes and the Var:

Alpes-Maritimes (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 32% (29.3%; 35.1%)
PS 22% (30.9%; 10.7%)
FN 16.5% (25%; 11.2%)
EE 15% (17.1%)
FG 5.5% (4.9%)
MoDem 3.5% (6.2%)
Ligue 2.5%
AEI 1% (3.4%; 4.2%)
LO 1% (0.5%)
NPA 1% (2.8%)

Var (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 39% (28.5%; 34.5%)
PS 19% (30.1%; 12.4%)
FN 13% (24.1%; 10.7%)
EE 12.5% (14.6%)
FG 7.5% (5.1%)
MoDem 2.5% (6.1%)
Ligue 1.5%
AEI 2% (3.3%; 4.2%)
NPA 2% (3.6%)
LO 1% (0.7%)

Falco (UMP top candidate in Var) gives the local list a big boost: if he had been candidate, this would have been a tossup region


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 13, 2010, 05:40:29 PM
TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".

Belgium and swiss press internet websites will give results before french equivalent.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 13, 2010, 06:30:24 PM
TNS-Sofres (ugh) is France Television and Le Monde's pollster for exit polls:

» 12h-17h : participation
» 18h : estimation de l'abstention
» 20h : estimation des résultats au niveau national et dans 5 régions :
   PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes et Languedoc-Roussillon.
» 21h : estimation Île-de-France

ftr, I've found that France 2 has some coverage from around 19:30 to 21:30; LCP-Public Senat has coverage from 19:50 on and goes for around 5 hours. France24 and probably I-Tele, LCI etc will also have coverage.

Yah, I think I'll begin with France2, and maybe zapping on TF1, I'll go on others if these ones stop too early to my state.

Good choice for 5 regions.

I think I'll go with LCP-Public Senat, they'll probably have better analysis and less stupid hacks than France2's "Yell at each other contest".

Belgium and swiss press internet websites will give results before french equivalent.

We know.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 06:53:53 AM
t/o at 12:00: 16.07% (+1.2% on 2009, -2.4% on 2004)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 07:02:23 AM
Fun infographic flashy thingee: http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/regionales-2010/region-par-region.php


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2010, 09:06:59 AM
Ah, so this is today. Excellent :)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 11:40:41 AM
t/o at 17:00: 39.29% (+6% on 2009, -10% on 2004).

I estimate turnout at 50-53%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 12:02:36 PM
Now that the polls are closed in most of the country, turnout is estimated at 47,5%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 12:06:59 PM
Régionales : UMP et PS seraient au au coude à coude
Selon deux sondages "sortie des urnes", l'UMP et le PS seraient au coude à coude pour ce premier tour des élections régionales.

Le premier sondage IPSOS annonce l'UMP et le PS entre 27,5 et 29 ,5 %, Europe Ecologie entre 11 et 13 %, le Front national entre 9 et 10 % et le Front de gauche à 6,5 %.

Les second sondage CSA, annonce l'UMP et le PS aux alentours de 30 %, Europe Ecologie entre 13 et 15 % et le Front national à 11 %

source: bienpublic.com

No surprise, except EE, lower than predicted.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Harry Hayfield on March 14, 2010, 12:11:10 PM
TV5 Monde will be broadcasting a special programme that starts at 1850 GMT (1950 CET / 1450 EDT / 1150 PDT) which lasts for a little over 90 minutes.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 12:13:23 PM
lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 12:14:12 PM
"L'ambiance est un peu morose chez les militants d'Europe Écologie qui s'attendent un un score certes honorable mais plus proche des 10 à 12%.

Ils espèrent que le Modem soient autour de 4% ce qui ne permettrait pas à la formation de François Bayrou de fusionner plusieurs régions.

Le Front de Gauche peut lui espérer faire 6,5%. PS et UMP peuvent être ex-aequo à 28% environ.

Quant au FN, il pourrait se maintenir dans huit à dix régions en réalisant 9% de moyenne nationale.  "

source: www.lesindiscrets.com


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 12:15:37 PM
lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.

but there is Ipsos, the best of the best...



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 12:20:11 PM
Les résultats du premier tour du scrutin des régionales françaises ne seront publiés qu'à partir de 20h en France. Cependant, nous disposons déjà de premières estimations. Le PS et l'UMP feraient jeu égal à ce stade.

Le parti de Nicolas Sarkozy, l'UMP et le PS de Martine Aubry feraient jeu égal au premier tour des élections régionales, selon les premiers sondages réalisés à la sortie des urnes. Les deux formations obtiendraient respectivement 29% et 28% des voix. Un résultat a priori défavorable à la droite en vue des deuxièmes tours. La gauche a, en effet, à première vue plus de possibilités de reports de voix.

Les écologistes seraient troisièmes avec entre 11 et 13% des voix, suivis du Front national (8,5 à 10,5%).

Le Front de gauche et le NPA d'Olivier Besancenot, soit l'extrême gauche, feraient eux entre 9,5 et 10%.

Le MoDem de François Bayrou serait autour des 4,5% des voix.

Un faible taux de participation

Le taux de participation au premier tour des élections régionales de 2004 s'élevait vers 17h00 en métropole à 49,66%. Ce dimanche, il est seulement de 39,66%.

Dans la grande majorité des communes, les bureaux ont fermé à 18h00. Dans les grandes villes, ils pourront rester ouverts jusqu'à 19h00 ou 20h00 (Paris, Marseille, Toulouse, Lyon, Strasbourg, Nantes et Ile-de-France).

source: rtbf


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 12:28:41 PM
Turnout at 17:00:
Languedoc-Roussillon: 40,77% (–13% on 2004)
Bretagne: –12% in Côtes-d’Armor
Aquitaine: 42% (–10%)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 12:31:00 PM
lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.

but there is Ipsos, the best of the best...



Yes, but your point being? CSA is still a sh**tty poster.

OK, we got the point. You don't need to repost the same numbers five times.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 12:33:41 PM
Turnout in Ile-de-France is three out of ten so far (with the polls still open). Turnout is down 14% in Champagne-Ardenne, down 13% in Picardie, and down 12% in Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. Corse is the only region with turnout over 50%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 12:39:18 PM
Corse is the only region with turnout over 50%.

(lol). Corse's turnout patterns and turnout differentials have always been very amusing.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 12:41:26 PM
lol CSA. Go away CSA, nobody wants your crappy polls.

but there is Ipsos, the best of the best...




Yes, but your point being? CSA is still a sh**tty poster.

OK, we got the point. You don't need to repost the same numbers five times.

different sources give the same thing, sometimes with a new info. It's my point.

Selon une estimation de TNS-Sofres, diffusée dimanche à 17h50, l'abstention a atteint le niveau record de 52,50%. Un chiffre proche de l'estimation d'Opinionway (52%) publiée à 18h10.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 12:43:48 PM
Turnout reports: http://twitter.com/Place_Beauvau



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:06:36 PM
Roumegas and Freche voted in the same place at the same time. Lol.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:17:40 PM
18h50: l'UMP et le PS autour des 29% confirme IPSOS

L'institut de sondage Ipsos donne le Parti socialiste et l'UMP de Nicoals Sarkozy à égalité avec 29% des voix.

Les Verts/Europe écologie seraient à 11,5%, le Front National à 9,5%, le Front de Gauche à 5,5%, le MoDem de François Bayrou à 4,5% et enfin le NPA d'Olivier Besancenot à 4%.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:20:28 PM
18h50: l'UMP et le PS autour des 29% confirme IPSOS

L'institut de sondage Ipsos donne le Parti socialiste et l'UMP de Nicoals Sarkozy à égalité avec 29% des voix.

Les Verts/Europe écologie seraient à 11,5%, le Front National à 9,5%, le Front de Gauche à 5,5%, le MoDem de François Bayrou à 4,5% et enfin le NPA d'Olivier Besancenot à 4%.



You already posted that.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:28:20 PM
19h12: Le PS à 27,5% selon Opinionway

D'après un sondage Opinionway, l'UMP de Nicoals Sarkozy est à 29% des voix, le Parti socialiste à 27,5%. Les Verts/Europe écologie seraient à 13%, le Front National à 9,5%, le Front de Gauche à 6%, le MoDem de François Bayrou à 5% et enfin le NPA d'Olivier Besancenot à 2%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:28:50 PM
18h50: l'UMP et le PS autour des 29% confirme IPSOS

L'institut de sondage Ipsos donne le Parti socialiste et l'UMP de Nicoals Sarkozy à égalité avec 29% des voix.

Les Verts/Europe écologie seraient à 11,5%, le Front National à 9,5%, le Front de Gauche à 5,5%, le MoDem de François Bayrou à 4,5% et enfin le NPA d'Olivier Besancenot à 4%.



You already posted that.

no


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:30:14 PM
Stupid France2 refuses to work. Stupid media.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 01:36:39 PM
Works here.

52,5 abstention (by now suits with me)

Pujadas announced big surprises.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 01:38:29 PM
Wow 67% abstention in IdF.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:40:59 PM
Join my live blogging here: http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=241028015d


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:42:09 PM

Careful now, that was 17:00 and polls are still open for another 20 minutes, so there might be heavier turnout later as people come back from vacations or something.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 01:43:03 PM

Careful now, that was 17:00 and polls are still open for another 20 minutes, so there might be heavier turnout later as people come back from vacations or something.

I'd doubt but well, ya never know.

Join my live blogging here: http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php/option=com_mobile/task=viewaltcast/altcast_code=241028015d

Nice thingee. :)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 14, 2010, 01:43:20 PM
According to a friend of mine, the PB, euh, the PS is at 43% in Brest, if it can be helpful (same as in 2004)...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:44:34 PM
According to a friend of mine, the PB, euh, the PS is at 43% in Brest, if it can be helpful (same as in 2004)...

No, the PB is at 43%!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 14, 2010, 01:48:50 PM
Let's see, ten bureaux de vote are still not in.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:49:24 PM
Works here.

52,5 abstention (by now suits with me)

Pujadas announced big surprises.

he says always that... lol

just for fun:

Les premiers résultats partiels ou définitifs en Côte-d'Or et en Bourgogne
Résultats définitifs pour Nevers : 38 % pour F. Patriat, 22 % pour F. Sauvadet, 3,4 % pour le MoDem et 5,8 % pour le Front de Gauche

En Côte-d'Or, c'est la commune de Brognon qui a dépouillé la première ses bulletins. Le score est le suivant : 119 votants, participation 59 %. Ont obtenu : 39 % des voix pour François Sauvadet, 31,8 % pour François Patriat, 12 % pour le Front national et 7,7 pour les Verts. Le MoDem est quasi inexistant avec deux voix seulement.

A 18h30, dans la ville de Beaune, sur 1 800 bulletins dépouillés, les scores sont les suivants : 38 % pour F. Sauvadet, 35,5 % pour F. Patriat, 6 % pour les Verts, 9 % pour le FN et 2,5 % pour le MoDem.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:50:45 PM
Jacques Bompard, tête de liste de  la Ligue du Sud aux élections régionales en Paca, arrive très largement en tête à Orange (Vaucluse), la ville dont il est le maire, avec 36,6 % des suffrages. Il laisse loin derrière la liste UMP de Thierry Mariani (18,5 %), celle du socialiste Michel Vauzelle (16,6 %) et celle de Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) avec 11,1 %. La liste Europe Ecologie recueillerait 7,7 % des voix à Orange.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:51:44 PM
Jacques Bompard, tête de liste de  la Ligue du Sud aux élections régionales en Paca, arrive très largement en tête à Orange (Vaucluse), la ville dont il est le maire, avec 36,6 % des suffrages. Il laisse loin derrière la liste UMP de Thierry Mariani (18,5 %), celle du socialiste Michel Vauzelle (16,6 %) et celle de Jean-Marie Le Pen (FN) avec 11,1 %. La liste Europe Ecologie recueillerait 7,7 % des voix à Orange.


Orange is the worst town imaginable.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:52:50 PM
Journal RTBF à l'instant : PS : 30% UMP : 26.5 EE : 14% FN : 10% Modem 4% Liste de gauche 7%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:53:24 PM
Alsace (radio locale): UMP 33%, PS 24%, EE 15%, FN 13%, Modem 5%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:53:53 PM
PS 28,4%, UMP 27,3% source Twitter


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:54:18 PM
People, let's wait 6 minutes now.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 01:55:38 PM
Thank you Belgium.

France will speak in 5 mins now. ;D

(Wow at UMP if the national poll is correct that would be the big surprise)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:56:56 PM
Thank you Belgium.

France will speak in 5 mins now. ;D

(Wow at UMP if the national poll is correct that would be the big surprise)

rumor: Télé brésilienne : UMP 28% / PS 24,5 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 01:57:29 PM
TNS-Sofres

PS 30 %
UMP 26,5 %
FN 12 %

RUMOR !


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:57:38 PM
Oh dear, Filipetti on I-tele and then Fredo. Lord.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 01:58:30 PM
Oh dear, Filipetti on I-tele and then Fredo. Lord.

Oh hard to bear. Good luck. I stay on France2, seems fine.

They'll have Royal and Frêche they said.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 01:59:22 PM
Last minute.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 14, 2010, 02:00:31 PM
Bravo le MoDem !


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:00:43 PM
Heheeeeeeee...........UMP!

Wow, FN 12.

Modem 4!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:01:01 PM
TNS-Sofres

PS 30 %
UMP 26,5 %
FN 12 %

RUMOR !

and EE: 13,... %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:01:40 PM
PS 30%
UMP 26.5%
EE 12.3%
FN 12% (!)
FG 6.2%
MODEM 4%
NPA 2%
LO 1.3%

Bayrou. Lol.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:02:10 PM
le pen 20 % in paca !!!!!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:02:42 PM
Wow...languedoc roussillon, only Frêche will represent the left.

Woooow....Le Pen 20%. I was wrong...

Good greens in R-A.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:03:54 PM
FN at the second run in 12 regions


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 14, 2010, 02:04:40 PM
One question:

A low turnout is in Germany better for the right Parties. Is it in France the same or it is different?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:05:02 PM
IDF: PS 30 UMP 28 EE 17 FN 8 FDG 6


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:05:37 PM
Copé strikes Abstention. Yah, the doomed scores of the right could mobilize between 2 runs, who knows.

One question:

A low turnout is in Germany better for the right Parties. Is it in France the same or it is different?

Apparently not today.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:07:03 PM
OW: fn at 11,2 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:08:08 PM
Le Soir: La liste conduite par Georges Frêche arrivait en tête des suffrages dimanche soir à l'issue du premier tour des élections régionales en Languedoc-Roussillon, avec 35,2% des suffrages, selon les estimations de l'institut TNS-Sofres pour France Télévisions et Radio France.  La liste UMP était deuxième, avec 20% des suffrages, devant la liste PS avec 7% des voix. (AP)

FN at 13


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:08:40 PM
DVG 35.2%
UMP 20%
FN 13%
EE 9.5%
FG 8%
PS 7%
AEI 4%
DVD 1.8%

Because of those stupid Socialists and that bitch Mandroux, there will be no anti-Freche left candidate. Go die stupid bitch, Mandroux. You're a piece of sh**t and ought to die in a fire.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:08:57 PM
royal at 39 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:09:29 PM
DVG 35.2%
UMP 20%
FN 13%
EE 9.5%
FG 8%
PS 7%
AEI 4%
DVD 1.8%

Because of those stupid Socialists and that bitch Mandroux, there will be no anti-Freche left candidate. Go die stupid bitch, Mandroux. You're a piece of sh**t and ought to die in a fire.


lol


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:09:47 PM
Too bad for EE, I hope they can do someting in IdF, but would seem a bit done now.

DVG 35.2%
UMP 20%
FN 13%
EE 9.5%
FG 8%
PS 7%
AEI 4%
DVD 1.8%

Because of those stupid Socialists and that bitch Mandroux, there will be no anti-Freche left candidate. Go die stupid bitch, Mandroux. You're a piece of sh**t and ought to die in a fire.

It is the attitude of PS toward EE generally, with particular context here.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:11:45 PM
Chiffres VdN: Nord-Pas-de-Calais : PS : 27,7 % ; UMP: 20,4 % ; FN : 19,7 % ; Europe Ecologie : 9,17 % ; Front de gauche : 9%  
 


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:12:31 PM

Chiffres VdN: Nord-Pas-de-Calais : PS : 27,7 % ; Majorité présidentielle : 20,4 % ; FN : 19,7 % ; Europe Ecologie : 9,17 % ; Front de gauche : 9% 
 

Eh yes, FN could be expected there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:12:59 PM

It is the attitude of PS toward EE generally, with particular context here.

Hopefully EE remembers that and they maintain their candidates in runoffs where qualified. That's all those stupid Socialists deserve for their mindless obstructionism and their little egomaniac fest.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:14:23 PM

It is the attitude of PS toward EE generally, with particular context here.

Hopefully EE remembers that and they maintain their candidates in runoffs where qualified. That's all those stupid Socialists deserve for their mindless obstructionism and their little egomaniac fest.

Hehe, I must say I could enjoy it. :)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:15:45 PM
Jesus, why do we need to have to know what stupid party hacks? Ugh. Can't you play around with a map, graphs and coloured thingees for a change?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:17:20 PM
le pen on tf1 with the censured picture...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:18:20 PM
Jesus, why do we need to have to know what stupid party hacks? Ugh. Can't you play around with a map, graphs and coloured thingees for a change?

Come on, France is not crowded of political data junkies. Set your TV!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:18:57 PM
besancenot and de sarnez, losers!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:19:31 PM
besancenot and de sarnez, losers!!!!!!!!

not a news.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 02:20:17 PM
How accurate are the exit polls? Roumégas is at 9,5%. Can he make it over 10%?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:21:02 PM
IDF: FN could be at 12 % but it's a rumor...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:21:24 PM
How accurate are the exit polls? Roumégas is at 9,5%. Can he make it over 10%?

He could, we'll see.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:21:32 PM
How accurate are the exit polls? Roumégas is at 9,5%. Can he make it over 10%?

yes of course


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:22:02 PM
How accurate are the exit polls? Roumégas is at 9,5%. Can he make it over 10%?

Yes, it's to be watched. Frêche making great lord on France2, proposes alliances with Mandroux and Roumégas.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 02:23:31 PM
If Roumégas does qualify, there will be a four-way race, which means that it would be theoretically possible that no single list would get a majority in the regional council… (Not that I see it as very likely, but it's a possibility.)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Harry Hayfield on March 14, 2010, 02:23:43 PM
TV5 Monde has published an exit poll by party groupings

Extreme Left: 3.3%
Left: 50.5%
Centre: 4.0%
Right: 27.4%
Extreme Right: 13.0%

which by my calculations put the left on 53.8% and the right on 40.4%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:24:05 PM
Le Soir: Ségolène Royal (PS) en tête dans le Poitou-Charentes, selon des résultats partiels
Ségolène Royal (PS) est en tête du premier tour des élections régionales dans la région Poitou-Charentes avec 39,15% des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'Intérieur portant sur 75,7% des bulletins dépouillés. (ap)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:26:06 PM
Le Soir: Michel Vauzelle (PS) en tête en région PACA, selon des résultats partiels
Michel Vauzelle (PS) est en tête du premier tour des élections régionales dans la région Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur avec 26,92% des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'Intérieur portant sur 20,06% des bulletins dépouillés. (ap)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:28:25 PM
If Roumégas does qualify, there will be a four-way race, which means that it would be theoretically possible that no single list would get a majority in the regional council… (Not that I see it as very likely, but it's a possibility.)

The 25%-of-seats bonus will give a majority rather easily, even in that case, imo.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:29:04 PM
Aquitaine:

ps: 36

UMP: 21

Lasalle: 11

EE: 9 (not sure)

FN 8


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:29:14 PM
Corse. D'après les premières estimations de l'AFP, la liste UMP arriverait en tête (21,2%) devant les nationalistes modérés (17,8%).

Go Simeoni!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 02:30:07 PM
If Roumégas does qualify, there will be a four-way race, which means that it would be theoretically possible that no single list would get a majority in the regional council… (Not that I see it as very likely, but it's a possibility.)

The 25%-of-seats bonus will give a majority rather easily, even in that case, imo.

Definitely. Frêche needs one third of the vote to get a majority (one third of 75% plus the 25% bonus), and he likely will get over one third, even in a four-way race.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:30:15 PM
Selon les premières estimations, portant sur 70% des suffrages exprimés, le candidat UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann devancerait légèrement le président sortant divers gauche Jean-Paul Bachy avec 33% des suffrages contre 30%. le candidat du FN Bruno Subtil obtiendrait 14% des sufrages. En revanche Europe-Ecologie d'Eric Loiselet n'atteindrait pas les 10% requis pour se maintenir éventuellement au second tour.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:30:58 PM
Le Soir: Philippe Richert (UMP) en tête en région Alsace, selon des résultats partiels
Philippe Richert (UMP) est en tête du premier tour des élections régionales dimanche dans la région Alsace avec 33,54% des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'Intérieur portant sur 45,07% des bulletins dépouillés.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:32:56 PM
I hope somebody will talk about Bretagne soon. Or Normandie. Or Corse. Or Lorraine. Or DOM-TOM.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:33:58 PM
Good speech of Aubry, inter-runs will be interesting, UMP trying to mobilize, PS lot of self confidence could encourage contempt toward EE, EE could fight.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:34:33 PM
Reunion from RFO:

Selon les derniers résultats (encore non officiels), le président sortant de la Région Réunion, tête de liste d’Alliance, arrive en tête des votes dépouillés avec 31 % des voix.

Conformément aux sondages réalisés avant l’élection, l’infatigable président de la Région Réunion Paul Vergès, tête de liste d’Alliance, âgé de 85 ans, devance le député maire UMP du Tampon Didier Robert, de la liste La Réunion en confiance (26 % des voix) et Michel Vergoz, tête de liste de Pour une Réunion plus juste avec l’union des socialistes (12 %).

Suivent Jean-Paul Virapoullé (La Réunion nout fierté, 7 %), Nadia Ramassamy (Avenir Meilleur pour la population de la Réunion dans la France et l’Europe, 5,5 %) et André Thien-Ah-Koon (Mouvement Divers Droite, 6 %), qui franchissent la barre des 5%, ce qui leur permettra de fusionner avec une liste présente au deuxième tour et de voir leurs frais de campagne remboursés.

so..

PCR 31
UMP 26 (very good!)
PS 12
DVD 7
DVD 5
DVD 6


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:36:17 PM
NPDC

PS: 29
UMP: 19,4
FN: 19,1
EE: 10


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Harry Hayfield on March 14, 2010, 02:36:49 PM
France 24 is publishing numbers and they seem akin to our local elections to be honest (all figures up to 5.00pm CET)

Turnout
Nationally: 39%
Island of Paris: 33%

Local Results
Corsica: UMP 21.2% ahead of Nationalists



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:37:03 PM
Rhone alpes

UMP: 26 %
PS: 26 %
EE: 17 %
FN: 14 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:38:28 PM
Pays-de-Loire for OpinionWay:

PS 34.5
UMP 32.3
EE 13.3
FN 7.4
FG 4.6
MODEM 4.6
Regionalist 1.7
LO 1.6


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:38:35 PM
Let's note the fall of NPA, not an election for them but well, such results are never good.

France 24 is publishing numbers and they seem akin to our local elections to be honest (all figures up to 5.00pm CET)

Turnout
Nationally: 39%
Island of Paris: 33%

Interesting if so, and well it is Ile-de-France. :)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:39:48 PM
NPDC for OpinionWay

PS 29.3
UMP 19.4
FN 19.1
EE 10.6
FG 9.7
MODEM 3.6
CNI 3.1
NPA 3
LO 1.3
Agriculteurs 0.9


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:40:39 PM
NPDC for OpinionWay
UMP 19.4
FN 19.1

Just wow.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:41:23 PM
Begag : 4,5 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:41:32 PM
LR for OpinionWay

DVG 36
UMP 20.5
FN 12.9
EE 8.2
FG 8
PS 6.8
AEI 4.1
DVD 1.6
Martinez (EXD) 0.7
LO 0,6
Ligue du Midi 0.6


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:42:44 PM
LR for OpinionWay

DVG 36
UMP 20.5
FN 12.9
EE 8.2
FG 8
PS 6.8
AEI 4.1
DVD 1.6
Martinez (EXD) 0.7
LO 0,6
Ligue du Midi 0.6

EE dropping then.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 14, 2010, 02:43:08 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:43:30 PM
Dans la région Nord/Pas-de-Calais, la liste du Parti socialiste emmenée par Daniel Percheron arrive en tête avec 27,88 % des voix (résultats partiels à 20h30) devant celle de l'UMP qui récolte 19,4 % des suffrages.


Le Front national arrive en troisième position avec 19,06 % des voix. Derrière, on retrouve le Front de gauche (11,62 %), Europe Ecologie (9,45 %). Le MoDem, avec ses 3,75 %, n'est pour l'heure pas en mesure de fusionner avec une autre liste au second tour.

Dans le seul département du Pas-de-Calais, le PS est à 25,08%, l'UMP à 21,09%, le Front national à 20,22%, Europe Ecologie à 8,59%, le Front de gauche à 8,59% et le MoDem à 3,63%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:43:56 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Marine !


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:44:35 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Hmm, heard about Calais? (lots of immigrants going to England). Also, it's quite a poor region, for the generalities.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:46:03 PM
Rhone-Alpes for OpinionWay

UMP 26.4
PS 26
EE 17.5
FN 14.6
FG 6
MODEM 4
NPA 2.1
DVD 1.9
LO 1.5

Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


When will people stop using such simplistic explanations?



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:46:41 PM

Marine speaking, bloody hell FN could finish second there next Sunday.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 14, 2010, 02:46:51 PM
Yeah Marine, the real French are coming back !


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:47:53 PM
Rhone-Alpes for OpinionWay

UMP 26.4
PS 26
EE 17.5
FN 14.6
FG 6
MODEM 4
NPA 2.1
DVD 1.9
LO 1.5

Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


When will people stop using such simplistic explanations?



I think that the come back of the FN is due to Marine Le Pen.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:49:14 PM
Rhone-Alpes for OpinionWay

UMP 26.4
PS 26
EE 17.5
FN 14.6
FG 6
MODEM 4
NPA 2.1
DVD 1.9
LO 1.5

Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


When will people stop using such simplistic explanations?



I think that the come back of the FN is due to Marine Le Pen.


In part but, not only, other reasons have been cited here for this région.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:49:49 PM
Yay!

Bretagne : le PS largement en tête. Avec 36,79 % des voix, d'après le ministère de l'intérieur, la liste de Jean-Yves le Drian arrive largement devant l'UMP de Bernadette Malgorn (23,52 %). Europe Ecologie réalise un score moins bon que prévu mais pourra cependant se maintenir (11,31 %).

lol Malgorn and lol Hascoet (carpetbagger)

I think that the come back of the FN is due to Marine Le Pen.

The FN was strong there before, Marine only helped amplify the effect in some regions. Stop falling for simplistic explanations of personality, please, and learn the socio-demographic background to it all.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:51:14 PM
Paca: le PS (28,4%) devance l'UMP (24,8%) et le FN (20,8%)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:51:24 PM
Centre : l'UMP en tête, mais sans réserves. La liste conduite par Hervé Novelli (UMP) récolte 29,49 % des voix, d'après les premières estimations de la "Nouvelle république", devançant le PS (27,37 %). FN et Europe écologie sont en position de se maintenir (12,25 % et 11,32 %). En cas de fusion des listes de gauche, l'UMP, sans réserves de voix, serait en très grande difficulté.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 02:52:51 PM
UMP results seems very bad for them. They don't have any reserves for the second round.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:52:59 PM
Brace. The douchebag from Melle is speaking.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:53:19 PM
Ségolène Royal speaks. Must say that compared to Aubry, looks ridiculous. I still don't think she's finished, but well, that's not her night. Interesting to see EE there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 02:54:27 PM
?????????????

"L'UMP et ses alliés obtiennent 26,20% des voix contre 22,74% pour le Parti socialiste.

Le Front national obtient 11,71% des voix, devant Europe Ecologie (11,09%).

Les listes du Front de gauche obtiennent 7,35% des voix, devant le Modem (5,64%).

Environ 73% des bulletins ont été dépouillés."

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualites/2/l-ump-devance-le-ps-le-fn-a-12-pourcent-selon-des-resultats-partiels_855123.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:55:16 PM
Thank God she didn't speak long.

Interesting that she had time for a snide remark for political apparels: "malgre l'hostilite des appareils politiques..."


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 14, 2010, 02:55:55 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


Aha! NRW in Germany is a Old mining/working-class area too and the NPD and the Republikaner are very weak there. I see France and Germany is not the same ;)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:56:07 PM
Good EE in IdF, hope they'll try to get something nationally.

?????????????

"L'UMP et ses alliés obtiennent 26,20% des voix contre 22,74% pour le Parti socialiste.

Le Front national obtient 11,71% des voix, devant Europe Ecologie (11,09%).

Les listes du Front de gauche obtiennent 7,35% des voix, devant le Modem (5,64%).

Environ 73% des bulletins ont été dépouillés."

http://www.lexpress.fr/actualites/2/l-ump-devance-le-ps-le-fn-a-12-pourcent-selon-des-resultats-partiels_855123.html

lol if so.

Thank God she didn't speak long.

Interesting that she had time for a snide remark for political apparels: "malgre l'hostilite des appareils politiques..."

lol yes, she's still into that.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 02:57:08 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


Aha! NRW in Germany is a Old mining/working-class area too and the NPD and the Republikaner are very weak there. I see France and Germany is not the same ;)

Oh, it's not the same for all old-mining areas, that's why the poverty of NPDC and the heavy immigration are important there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 02:58:30 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


Aha! NRW in Germany is a Old mining/working-class area too and the NPD and the Republikaner are very weak there. I see France and Germany is not the same ;)

Oh, it's not the same for all old-mining areas, that's why the poverty of NPDC and the heavy immigration are important there.

No, the FN is generally stronger than average in a lot of old mining areas.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 02:59:38 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


Aha! NRW in Germany is a Old mining/working-class area too and the NPD and the Republikaner are very weak there. I see France and Germany is not the same ;)

NRW economy hasn't collasped, I think, unlike NPDC economy.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:01:14 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


Aha! NRW in Germany is a Old mining/working-class area too and the NPD and the Republikaner are very weak there. I see France and Germany is not the same ;)

Oh, it's not the same for all old-mining areas, that's why the poverty of NPDC and the heavy immigration are important there.

No, the FN is generally stronger than average in a lot of old mining areas.

Yes but look, in the south of France, 'commies'/PS can remain important in these areas, like Gard or Aveyron.

Hmm, I really think it would be an error not to give importance to immigration and poverty there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:01:55 PM
Oh and, Bayrou should retire of politics now, and write books, he would be far more useful.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:02:26 PM
Give it a logical reason why the FN is so strong in NPDC?

Old mining/working-class areas which are now slowly dying, where the FN has recently broken through. Immigration and security themes are big here.


Aha! NRW in Germany is a Old mining/working-class area too and the NPD and the Republikaner are very weak there. I see France and Germany is not the same ;)

Oh, it's not the same for all old-mining areas, that's why the poverty of NPDC and the heavy immigration are important there.

No, the FN is generally stronger than average in a lot of old mining areas.

Yes but look, in the south of France, 'commies'/PS can remain important in these areas, like Gard or Aveyron.

Hmm, I really think it would be an error not to give importance to immigration and poverty there.

The FN stole a lot of ex-PCF voters in those regions, that's important to note. Also, please re-read what I wrote: "Immigration and security themes are big here."

IDF estimate:

UMP 29
PS 25
EE 16.5
FN 8.3


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:02:56 PM
IDF

UMP: 28
PS: 24
EE: 17

(sofres)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:03:30 PM
Yes, good.

lol, Benhamias and Lepage (2 MoDems) fighting on France2.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:03:45 PM
CORSE: Outre l'UMP (22,66 %) et la liste PS-PRG (18,84 %), deux listes régionalistes pourront se maintenir : celle de Gilles Simeoni (17,53 %) et celle de Jean-Guy Talamoni (10,05 %).
L'abstention a été largement plus faible en Corse que dans le reste de la France (36 %).

Good result for Talamoni and Giacobbi. 27.58% for nationalists : +10% on 2004!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2010, 03:04:29 PM
That's so beautiful... :D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:05:12 PM
   


 
 Jean-Luc Warsmann (UMP) est en tête, Jean-Paul Bachy (LG) est second, Bruno Subtil (FN) est troisième.
Europe écologie fait moins de 8%.

A la lecture des premiers résultats partiels, la liste UMP emmené par Jean-Luc Warsmann arrive en tête de ce premier tour des élections régionales en Champagne-Ardenne avec 33.57% des suffrages.
La liste d’union de la gauche du président sortant de la région Jean-Paul Bachy atteint les  29.45%, soit plus d’un point et demi de plus qu’à l’issue du premier tour de 2004 (27.94%).
Avec un score de 16.71% la liste de Bruno Subtil confirme le FN dans sa position de troisième force politique de la région. Quant à la liste d’Europe Ecologie, emmenée par Eric Loiselet, elle ne réunit que 7.73% des suffrages et ne se maintiendra donc pas au deuxième tour.

 
 


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:05:57 PM

Haha, bah, not for me, low EE, PS that has nothing to say, and strong FN.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:06:41 PM
Idf:

NDA 4.1%
Dolium (OMGZ THE BLACKZ OBAMA!!! WE WILL WIN OBAMA!!!) 4%
Besancenot 3%

Bayrou is pathetic.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:08:10 PM

Not really: high abstention, the stupid PS assuring Freche's re-election thanks to their close-minded egomaniac fuss, high FN... Hopefully regionalists do well.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:08:33 PM
Oh dear, last national ones:

EE 12,3%
FN 12%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 03:10:47 PM
Idf:

NDA 4.1%
Dolium (OMGZ THE BLACKZ OBAMA!!! WE WILL WIN OBAMA!!!) 4%
Besancenot 3%

Bayrou is pathetic.



What is NDA?

And the PS is not the only one to blame in LR, PG, too, because they got a better result (for now) than PS.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:11:58 PM
Idf:

NDA 4.1%
Dolium (OMGZ THE BLACKZ OBAMA!!! WE WILL WIN OBAMA!!!) 4%
Besancenot 3%

Bayrou is pathetic.



What is NDA?

And the PS is not the only one to blame in LR, PG, too, because they got a better result (for now) than PS.

Dupont-Aignan.

The FG's result in LR was kind of expected and not based on a party's stupid close-minded us-first attitude.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2010, 03:13:16 PM

Haha, bah, not for me, low EE, PS that has nothing to say, and strong FN.

Low ? 13% is a bit less than Europeans, but still an outstanding performance compared to the Green's traditional performance.



Not really: high abstention, the stupid PS assuring Freche's re-election thanks to their close-minded egomaniac fuss, high FN... Hopefully regionalists do well.

Yeah, abstention was a big disappointment indeed... Couldn't imagine it would gain 15 points... But still, the left has never been so high since decades.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:15:53 PM

Haha, bah, not for me, low EE, PS that has nothing to say, and strong FN.

Low ? 13% is a bit less than Europeans, but still an outstanding performance compared to the Green's traditional performance.

Nah they were 14,5% iirc in the 90s (92 iirc), plus that's less than euros, and the FN could pass in front of them, with an official national 3rd place, all of this plus a big abstention, actually, not so good.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:16:27 PM

Haha, bah, not for me, low EE, PS that has nothing to say, and strong FN.

Low ? 13% is a bit less than Europeans, but still an outstanding performance compared to the Green's traditional performance.



Not really: high abstention, the stupid PS assuring Freche's re-election thanks to their close-minded egomaniac fuss, high FN... Hopefully regionalists do well.

Yeah, abstention was a big disappointment indeed... Couldn't imagine it would gain 15 points... But still, the left has never been so high since decades.

abstention is good for EE.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:16:53 PM
Ariege final results:

PS 42.95
UMP 17.38
EE 14.07
FG 9.47
FN 8.63
MODEM 2.71
NPA 3.73
LO 1.08


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:17:35 PM

Haha, bah, not for me, low EE, PS that has nothing to say, and strong FN.

Low ? 13% is a bit less than Europeans, but still an outstanding performance compared to the Green's traditional performance.



Not really: high abstention, the stupid PS assuring Freche's re-election thanks to their close-minded egomaniac fuss, high FN... Hopefully regionalists do well.

Yeah, abstention was a big disappointment indeed... Couldn't imagine it would gain 15 points... But still, the left has never been so high since decades.

abstention is good for EE.

hmm, not here apparently.

lol at UMP in Ariège not surprising but lol.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:18:37 PM

It's also very good for the FN, obviously.

Other results:

Gers- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/073/032/032.html
Creuse- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/023/023.html
Cantal- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/083/015/015.html
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/093/004/004.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2010, 03:18:58 PM
Nah they were 14,5% iirc in the 90s (92 iirc), plus that's less than euros, and the FN could pass in front of them, with an official national 1st place, all of this plus a big abstention, actually, not so good.

Well, yeah in the 90s there was a little ecolo momentum, but I tend to think that these results will be more durable.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:19:40 PM
Oh dear, PanzerGirl is pumped.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:20:13 PM

It's also very good for the FN, obviously.

Other results:

Gers- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/073/032/032.html
Creuse- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/023/023.html
Cantal- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/083/015/015.html
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/093/004/004.html

no, cfr european elections


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:20:33 PM

ahem?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:22:22 PM

It's also very good for the FN, obviously.

Other results:

Gers- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/073/032/032.html
Creuse- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/023/023.html
Cantal- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/083/015/015.html
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/093/004/004.html

no, cfr european elections

Yes, cfr 2002.

Basse-Normandie, le PS en tête, bon score du MoDem. La liste d'union de gauche menée par Laurent Basse-Normandie, le PS en tête, bon score du MoDem. La liste d'union de gauche menée par Laurent Beauvais obtiendrait 31,7 % des voix, d'après les premiers résultats, devançant l'UMP de Jean-François Le Grand (28,8 %). Europe Ecologie est en position de se maintenir avec 11,8 %, tandis que le FN recueille 9,2 %. A noter le bon score du MoDem dans la région : 8,23 %.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 03:28:31 PM

It's also very good for the FN, obviously.

Other results:

Gers- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/073/032/032.html
Creuse- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/023/023.html
Cantal- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/083/015/015.html
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence- http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/093/004/004.html

no, cfr european elections

Yes, cfr 2002.

Basse-Normandie, le PS en tête, bon score du MoDem. La liste d'union de gauche menée par Laurent Basse-Normandie, le PS en tête, bon score du MoDem. La liste d'union de gauche menée par Laurent Beauvais obtiendrait 31,7 % des voix, d'après les premiers résultats, devançant l'UMP de Jean-François Le Grand (28,8 %). Europe Ecologie est en position de se maintenir avec 11,8 %, tandis que le FN recueille 9,2 %. A noter le bon score du MoDem dans la région : 8,23 %.

Would be pretty good for the left, they got 24% in 2004.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:29:59 PM
Cantal stuff:

UMP 41.93% (47.30% in 2004)
PS 31.99% (25.95% in 2004)
Greens 7.31% (4.9% in 2004)
PCF 5.86% (4.49% in 2004)
FN 5.36% (7.42% in 2004)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:30:18 PM
Oh, France2 is over, wasn't bad, switch on France3.

Good they'll make all regions there seems.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 03:31:24 PM
Aveyron results: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/073/012/012.html (http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/073/012/012.html)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 14, 2010, 03:31:50 PM
With my foreign view I can say that is a win for the left (good for the left and not for the PS). I find it not so good that the FN have a very good result and I cannot understand this. When in Germany the NPD, DVU or the Republikaner will have 12%  then the world will screaming and in France the beaches of the Normandy will be closed, because they need it for a new D-Day.

The result of the EE I very like, not because I'm green. No, because it seems this is the only modern Party in France.

The turnout is very low and this isn't good for the democracy. This is maybe because the Regions haven't so much power  and many people think why should we vote for this powerless thing. But we see it in all countries in Europe that the turnout get lower.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:33:41 PM
Jean-Marc Ayrault said "il y'a une progression du FN en Pays-de-la-Loire"

kay, idiot:

FN 2004: 9.71%
FN 2010: 7.6%

Read a book.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:34:36 PM
The turnout is very low and this isn't good for the democracy. This is maybe because the Regions haven't so much power  and many people think why should we vote for this powerless thing.

Plus the fact that there has been a lot of enthusiasm for politics in 2007, and a lot of deception since.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 03:35:02 PM
lol, Frêche won in Lozère.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 14, 2010, 03:36:03 PM
Jean-Paul Huchon just said he stays "placid" on BFM, I find it pretty amusing...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2010, 03:36:33 PM
The turnout is very low and this isn't good for the democracy. This is maybe because the Regions haven't so much power  and many people think why should we vote for this powerless thing. But we see it in all countries in Europe that the turnout get lower.

I suspect that it's for the same sort of reasons that we have low turnouts (and lop-sided results) in local elections in Britain.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:37:29 PM
Jean-Paul Huchon just said he stays "placid" on BFM, I find it pretty amusing...

Hmm, yes, he should as much has said he stays 'Huchon'.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:39:40 PM
À Hénin-Beaumont, Marine Le Pen est en tête avec 39%, devant le PS (27,27%) et Europe Ecologie (10,10%). La majorité présidentielle est 4e avec 7,26%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:40:16 PM
Jean-Marc Ayrault said "il y'a une progression du FN en Pays-de-la-Loire"

kay, idiot:

FN 2004: 9.71%
FN 2010: 7.6%

Read a book.

he compares with EE elections...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:41:40 PM
À Hénin-Beaumont, Marine Le Pen est en tête avec 39%, devant le PS (27,27%) et Europe Ecologie (10,10%). La majorité présidentielle est 4e avec 7,26%

Oh dear, always a shock to see how the right is there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:42:23 PM

LOL

Lorraine, la gauche largement en tête. Avec 34,39 % d'après les estimations du ministère de l'intérieur, la liste d'union de la gauche devance largement la liste de la majorité présidentielle (23,41 %). L'UMP devra également compter avec la liste du Front National, qui réalise 15,27 %. Les écologistes ne parviennent pas à passer la barre des 10 % (9,01 %).

Fail for UMP here, wow. Gandrange results will be fun!


Yes, which makes him intellectually dishonest and useless.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 03:43:38 PM
Results page where completed departments and regions appear and will appear: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/ (http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/)

7% for presidential "majority" makes wonder why they are called like that.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:44:57 PM
Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

Yeah, new politics, new stuff, change, change. More like nothing new, egomaniacs, old stuff, old stuff!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 03:46:21 PM
Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

Yeah, new politics, new stuff, change, change. More like nothing new, egomaniacs, old stuff, old stuff!

I don't think than most voters would pardon them if non-merging means a UMP win under 50%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:47:03 PM
Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

Yeah, new politics, new stuff, change, change. More like nothing new, egomaniacs, old stuff, old stuff!

He said that before, he is a pragmatic before everything, he always said that for regionals and further. Hmm, I think they would fight for good stuffs nevertheless, if Cohn Bendit wouldn't push for a lot, Duflot would certainly try.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 03:49:37 PM
Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

Yeah, new politics, new stuff, change, change. More like nothing new, egomaniacs, old stuff, old stuff!

He said that before, he is a pragmatic before everything, he always said that for regionals and further. Hmm, I think they would fight for good stuffs nevertheless, if Cohn Bendit wouldn't push for a lot, Duflot would certainly try.

And they prefer being in the majority with PS, than in the minority with UMP in power.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:50:36 PM
Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

Yeah, new politics, new stuff, change, change. More like nothing new, egomaniacs, old stuff, old stuff!

He said that before, he is a pragmatic before everything, he always said that for regionals and further. Hmm, I think they would fight for good stuffs nevertheless, if Cohn Bendit wouldn't push for a lot, Duflot would certainly try.

And they prefer being in the majority with PS, than in the minority with UMP in power.

Sure, but PS would have to be smart too, they will have to pay attention if they have too much contempt, that could make some bad noise.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:51:22 PM
First official result in Reunion:

PCR-Alliance 30.32
UMP 26.42
PS 13.06
Virapoulle 6.73
Ramassamy 5.92
TAK 5.38
Magamootoo 4.99
EE 4.93
Regionalist 0.89
LO-CO 0.82
Pouny 0.10

Each time Cohn-Bendit speaks, I hate him even more. Ugh.

Limousin, la gauche largement en tête. Sans surprise, la gauche réalise de très bons scores dans la région : 38,29 % des voix pour le PS, contre 24 % pour l'UMP. La liste du Front de gauche récolte 13 % des voix, un de ses meilleurs scores. Europe Ecologie ne pourra se maintenir (9,55 %).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 03:51:39 PM
Vendée: (http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/052/085/085.html)
37,78% UMP
34,85% PS
10,60% EE
6,84% FN
4,93% MoDem
3,55% FG
1,44% LO
0,01% PB


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2010, 03:53:46 PM
Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

How so ? They can't win anywhere without the PS.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:53:55 PM
the interessant thing is that the result of the fn is better than the presidential result.

Update: Le Pen at 20,5 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 03:56:06 PM
the interessant thing is that the result of the fn is better than the presidential result.

Update: Le Pen at 20,5 %

Well, 85% turnout in presidentials.

Le Pen Marine?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:56:24 PM
Vendée: (http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/052/085/085.html)
37,78% UMP
34,85% PS
10,60% EE
6,84% FN
4,93% MoDem
3,55% FG
1,44% LO
0,01% PB

Bad result for the UMP, very bad here.

48.76% in Montaigu for the UMP.

Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

How so ? They can't win anywhere without the PS.

I know that. It's just that it's time for them to dump their pragmatic-centrist-we're new people crap.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 03:57:11 PM
Auvergne, la gauche loin devant. La liste UMP d'Alain Marleix arrive en tête du premier tour (28,03 %), mais trois listes de gauche atteignent 10 % ou plus : le PS (27,95 %), le Front de gauche (15 %, le meilleur score national de la liste) et Europe Ecologie (10 %).

Wow for FG at 15%!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 03:59:07 PM
the interessant thing is that the result of the fn is better than the presidential result.

Update: Le Pen at 20,5 %

Well, 85% turnout in presidentials.

Le Pen Marine?



Jean marie


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:00:54 PM
Picardie:

PS 26.91
UMP 25.27
FN 16.25
EE 9.69
Stalinist 6.35
FG 5.33
MODEM 3.75
NPA 3.04

Franche-Comte:

UMP 33.02
PS 29.41
FN 13.73
EE 8.94
FG 3.6
MODEM 3.34
NPA 3.21
LO 1.08


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2010, 04:01:15 PM
LOL Marleix the gerrymanderer...

Cohn-Bendit says EE's objective is to merge with the PS everywhere possible... Lame.

How so ? They can't win anywhere without the PS.

I know that. It's just that it's time for them to dump their pragmatic-centrist-we're new people crap.

I don't think compromising is a bad thing... This voting system has been made precisely to allow such sort of things, so that green and PS voters will both be represented in the upcoming majority.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 04:01:21 PM
Royal is completely crazy...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 04:03:20 PM
another thing: criminality was the second priority in the ifop polls and it's a reason which can explain the FN result.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:03:47 PM

No she just keep advancing against a wall of bricks in her rhetoric, I still think she isn't dead, but, she'll have to make up her mind.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:04:09 PM
Haute-Normandie:

PS 35.03
UMP 25.16
FN 12.16
EE 8.83
FG 7.81
MODEM 2.9
NPA 2.59
AEI 1.16
LO 0.09

Bourgogne:

PS 35.1
UMP 29.35
FN 12.71
EE 9.92
NPA 4.32


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 04:04:46 PM
Duflot, another crazy girl...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:05:57 PM

Haha. No, let me explain you how it works, we call it engagement, conviction, yah, seems weird today, I know...

Haute-Normandie:

PS 35.03
UMP 25.16
FN 12.16
EE 8.83
FG 7.81
MODEM 2.9
NPA 2.59
AEI 1.16
LO 0.09

Bourgogne:

PS 35.1
UMP 29.35
FN 12.71
EE 9.92
NPA 4.32

Ahem. I don't like to see all these FN second and EE not into it.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:06:25 PM
Corse:

UMP 21.34
Reg 18.4
Giacobbi 15.48
FG 10.02
Nats 9.36
Zuccarrelli 8.05

Renucci 6.04
MODEM 4.25
FN 4.16
AEI 1.86


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:06:39 PM
.k, Lepage will join EE.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 04:08:43 PM

a big kiss at Cohn-bendit on france 3... Judas...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:09:44 PM

a big kiss at Cohn-bendit on france 3... Judas...

Nah nah, she warned Bayrou since the Euros.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2010, 04:09:51 PM
another thing: criminality was the second priority in the ifop polls and it's a reason which can explain the FN result.

How strange... ::)

The first one being "DA EVUL IMMIGRANTZ EATING OUR BREADD !!1!11!!!"


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:11:26 PM
In Corse, in terms of runoffs, the Union of the Left with 39-40% is heavily favoured to wrest control of the region from Rocca Serra/Santini (UMP)... Yet, problems in negotiations between Giacobbi and Zuccarrelli, old enemies, can mess stuff up. Giacobbi, however, is helped by his strong result and Zuccarrelli's low result.

Brace. Fredo is coming on. Prepare to weep.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:12:24 PM
another thing: criminality was the second priority in the ifop polls and it's a reason which can explain the FN result.

How strange... ::)

The first one being "DA EVUL IMMIGRANTZ EATING OUR BREADD !!1!11!!!"

No, no, that was the 80s. As I kept saying in the thread, there clearly was unsecutiry in the media, I just thought FN wouldn't have been able to benefit of it.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 04:14:02 PM
Hashemite, you'll be happy, Parti Breton got 4,37% in Côtes-d'Armor and 6,82% in Finistère.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:14:24 PM
Chirac's native Correzien village: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/019/019202.html

LOL


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 14, 2010, 04:16:53 PM
Chirac's native Correzien village: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/019/019202.html

LOL

Higher or lower than the Limousin average ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:17:28 PM
Hashemite, you'll be happy, Parti Breton got 4,37% in Côtes-d'Armor and 6,82% in Finistère.

Hell yeah! I love Bretagne, it's so great.

Poor result for the PCF dissident in Cotes-d'Armor: only 3.38%

Bretagne results:

Jean-Yves Le Drian (La Bretagne solidaire, créative et responsable - PS)   399739   37.13
Bernadette Malgorn (Majorité présidentielle)   256053   23.78
Guy Hascoët (Europe écologie Bretagne)   130183   12.09
Jean-Paul Félix (Bretagne Le Pen 2010 - FN)   66907   6.21
Bruno Joncour (Mouvememt démocrate - MoDem)   57799   5.37
Christian Troadec (Nous te ferons Bretagne - DVG )   46730   4.34
Gérard Perron (Ensemble pour une Bretagne à gauche, solidaire, écologique et citoyenne)   37550   3.49
Charles Laot (Terres de Bretagne)   28962   2.69
Laurence de Bouard (Vraiment à gauche, unitaire, anticapitaliste pour une écologie radicale - NPA)   26741   2.48
Valérie Hamon (Lutte Ouvrière soutenue par Arlette Laguiller - LO)   15831   1.47
Alexandre Noury (Bretagne phare du nouveau monde - DVD)   10151   0.94



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 04:18:07 PM
Chirac's native Correzien village: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/019/019202.html

LOL

Well, not surprising, that is a very-left wing region and department. Right only had good results there when Chirac was involved.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 04:19:49 PM
Hashemite, you'll be happy, Parti Breton got 4,37% in Côtes-d'Armor and 6,82% in Finistère.

Hell yeah! I love Bretagne, it's so great.

Poor result for the PCF dissident in Cotes-d'Armor: only 3.38%

Bretagne results:

Jean-Yves Le Drian (La Bretagne solidaire, créative et responsable - PS)   399739   37.13
Bernadette Malgorn (Majorité présidentielle)   256053   23.78
Guy Hascoët (Europe écologie Bretagne)   130183   12.09
Jean-Paul Félix (Bretagne Le Pen 2010 - FN)   66907   6.21
Bruno Joncour (Mouvememt démocrate - MoDem)   57799   5.37
Christian Troadec (Nous te ferons Bretagne - DVG )   46730   4.34
Gérard Perron (Ensemble pour une Bretagne à gauche, solidaire, écologique et citoyenne)   37550   3.49
Charles Laot (Terres de Bretagne)   28962   2.69
Laurence de Bouard (Vraiment à gauche, unitaire, anticapitaliste pour une écologie radicale - NPA)   26741   2.48
Valérie Hamon (Lutte Ouvrière soutenue par Arlette Laguiller - LO)   15831   1.47
Alexandre Noury (Bretagne phare du nouveau monde - DVD)   10151   0.94



Parti Breton is DVG? That is making no sense.
lol at "écologie radicale" and "Bretagne citoyenne"


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 04:21:05 PM
The PS poll with JM Le Pen at 19 % was good... not like sofres or ifop...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:21:41 PM
Haha, debates are so carricatural, who do they expect to convince?? (amongst those who watch)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 04:22:08 PM
Now, 2 questions:

1. Will Ségolène be the first one of the left in France ?
That wouldn't be important for the rest of the left, as she is out now for 2012 (and as it will be very hard for her to mix her list with EE for the 2 nd round), BUT it will be important for her, because she'd find there a reason to keep on fighting against Aubry until the end (and Holland and DSK may help her, to weaken Aubry...)

2. Why Jean-Marie LePen wouldn't be a candidate again in 2012 ?
He has a bigger result than his Panzer Girl...

And 1 plea:
SPLIT THE UMP, GODDAM IT !
One Sarkozy to steal FN votes, one Borloo to kill definitely the MoDem and avoid some centrist thinking the Greens are just "little birds defenders".
(big sigh...)

That's fine, now: 2 and a half years without REAL reforms and the FN up and a PS reunited despite the "ouverture"....
What a defeat for Sarkozy, on all the fronts...

Oh, and one big LOL with Frëche's result and EE, FG and this stupid Mandroux below 10 :D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 04:22:27 PM
Haha, debates are so carricatural, who do they expect to convince?? (amongst those who watch)

who watchs ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 14, 2010, 04:23:24 PM
Now, 2 questions:

1. Will Ségolène be the first one of the left in France ?
That wouldn't be important for the rest of the left, as she is out now for 2012 (and as it will be very hard for her to mix her list with EE for the 2 nd round), BUT it will be important for her, because she'd find there a reason to keep on fighting against Aubry until the end (and Holland and DSK may help her, to weaken Aubry...)

2. Why Jean-Marie LePen wouldn't be a candidate again in 2012 ?
He has a bigger result than his Panzer Girl...

And 1 plea:
SPLIT THE UMP, GODDAM IT !
One Sarkozy to steal FN votes, one Borloo to kill definitely the MoDem and avoid some centrist thinking the Greens are just "little birds defenders".
(big sigh...)

That's fine, now: 2 and a half years without REAL reforms and the FN up and a PS reunited despite the "ouverture"....
What a defeat for Sarkozy, on all the fronts...

Oh, and one big LOL with Frëche's result and EE, FG and this stupid Mandroux below 10 :D

Malvy is at 41 %I think


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:23:52 PM
Chirac's native Correzien village: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/019/019202.html

LOL

Well, not surprising, that is a very-left wing region and department. Right only had good results there when Chirac was involved.

Eastern Correze, Chirac's turf, is usually more rural/clerical and right-leaning than the rest, but it's moderate tradition there and the Union pour Nicolas Sarkozy hasn't been successful there.

23.57% for Joncour in Saint-Brieuc, not bad.

Parti Breton-AEI is centrist, but Troadec is a leftie and he isn't in the PB per se.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 04:24:32 PM
2,7% for peasants in Bretagne: I knew I should have voted for them ;)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:24:44 PM
Haha, debates are so carricatural, who do they expect to convince?? (amongst those who watch)

who watchs ?

Me, you, hmm, maybe a few retirees too, maybe.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:27:18 PM
Chirac's native Correzien village: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/019/019202.html

LOL

Well, not surprising, that is a very-left wing region and department. Right only had good results there when Chirac was involved.

Eastern Correze, Chirac's turf, is usually more rural/clerical and right-leaning than the rest, but it's moderate tradition there and the Union pour Nicolas Sarkozy hasn't been successful there.

Hmm, I don't know statistics, but I've lived there during a while, and when you live there, the ambiance, trends, psychologically, are clearly: Eastern/Tulle to the Left, Western/Brive to the Right, for the big trends.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:28:43 PM
Lol, I love Melenchon. 'Deuxio, plus de MODEM, on est enfin debarasse!"

Carhaix: PB 42.38, PS 25.22, UMP 12.44, GRN 6.33, PCF 3.71, NPA 3.13, FN 2.86, MODEM 1.83 !

I feel like moving there!

12.4% for Charles Laot in his hometown of Lanildut.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:29:44 PM
Chirac's native Correzien village: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/019/019202.html

LOL

Well, not surprising, that is a very-left wing region and department. Right only had good results there when Chirac was involved.

Eastern Correze, Chirac's turf, is usually more rural/clerical and right-leaning than the rest, but it's moderate tradition there and the Union pour Nicolas Sarkozy hasn't been successful there.

Hmm, I don't know statistics, but I've lived there during a while, and when you live there, the ambiance, trends, psychologically, are clearly: Eastern/Tulle to the Left, Western/Brive to the Right, for the big trends.

()

Ussel, which is Chirac's stronghold in the east, is also on the right.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:31:19 PM
Chirac's native Correzien village: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/074/019/019202.html

LOL

Well, not surprising, that is a very-left wing region and department. Right only had good results there when Chirac was involved.

Eastern Correze, Chirac's turf, is usually more rural/clerical and right-leaning than the rest, but it's moderate tradition there and the Union pour Nicolas Sarkozy hasn't been successful there.

Hmm, I don't know statistics, but I've lived there during a while, and when you live there, the ambiance, trends, psychologically, are clearly: Eastern/Tulle to the Left, Western/Brive to the Right, for the big trends.

()

Ussel, which is Chirac's stronghold in the east, is also on the right.


Oh yes, Ussel, well, when you're in Corrèze it's mainly Brive/Tulle, yah, yah, there are a few people in Ussel too, sorry. ;D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 04:33:56 PM
- Gollnisch has a disappointing result for the FN in Rhône-Alpes, if you look at Franche-Comté, Champagne, Hte Normandie, Picardie, even Centre and Basse-Normandie, and of course PACA and NPdC.
It's lost for him now inside the FN. Definitely I mean.

- Yep, Malvy is, logically, ahead of Ségolène.
Will DSK fight until the end ? I hope so... Fabius is here to help him. I hope Hollande will do it also, except if Aubry promises Matignon to him... (that would be smart from her and, in that case, well, it would be hard for DSK, as Delanoë is already out and behind Aubry and as Royal will steal some of the votes DSK would normally win)

- Come on, Hash, Troadec is a dangerous lunatic, he's not the Parti Breton, at all...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:35:57 PM
Haute-Garonne is still not done here, EE could still have good surprises.

Onesta is optimistic.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:36:54 PM
- Come on, Hash, Troadec is a dangerous lunatic, he's not the Parti Breton, at all...

He's not perfect, but he isn't a lunatic and he's the best of the gang with Le Drian.

Plus, you know me, I'm a regionalist.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:37:44 PM
47.69% for Malvy in Lot... almost 50% there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:38:14 PM
Yah Malvy superstar, but let's wait Toulouse too.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:41:27 PM
Fiesta in EE Toulouse.

Seems they would ask a lot for an alliance.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:41:51 PM
Dang, 19.68% for Chassaigne (FG) in the 63. He must have owned in his constituency.

60.92% in his hometown. Haha!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:42:15 PM
Idiot Alert: Gérard Collomb félicite Georges Frêche : "Les électeurs ne veulent pas suivre les consignes des appareils parisiens"


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:44:29 PM
Idiot Alert: Gérard Collomb félicite Georges Frêche : "Les électeurs ne veulent pas suivre les consignes des appareils parisiens"

lol, persiste et signe.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 04:45:26 PM
In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:45:47 PM
17.66% for MODEM in the 64, not bad. Lassalle has 77.8% in his small rural village where he's been mayor since 1977.

But, haha, wait for it, in Bordères (Bayrou's stronghold): Rousset 37.9, Lassalle 31.5


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 04:46:51 PM
In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...

Not really, since some FN voters are leftists who prefer PS to UMP. Not much in Alsace, but still...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 04:47:40 PM
My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 04:49:03 PM
In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...

Not really, since some FN voters are leftists who prefer PS to UMP. Not much in Alsace, but still...

Please note "some" in my post.
Leftist voters of the FN and real far-rightists will keep on voting for Binder.
Alsace isn't Ardennes, Nord, Oise, be careful.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 04:49:21 PM
Bourgogne: FN, PS, UMP in runoff. EE has 9.84%, barely miss the run-off.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:50:16 PM
Another village result, this time Solesmes (72, Fillon's stronghold) where Bechu has 58.6%

And, of course, in Melle (79), Sego wins 52.6%.

In Alsace, it's really on a par, but I think some FN voters will vote for the UMP or abstain, so Richert should win, but by no more than 3 points...

Not really, since some FN voters are leftists who prefer PS to UMP. Not much in Alsace, but still...

FN voters in Alsace are usually far more white rural Protestant folks who don't like 'em blacks and Africans, which makes them more likely to vote UMP (the FN's results in Alsace have gone down a lot since the 2002-2004 heyday).

In the runoffs, the FN vote obviously does not grow much at all. In all regions, they will either gain 1-2% maximum, stabilize or lose 1-3% of their March 14 vote.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 04:50:43 PM
My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:52:48 PM
My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .

Yes, remember for the PS that after wonderful 2004 came not-so-good 2005 with the division over the EU, Le Mans and in 2006 came the fights between Royal the Maverick and the elephants.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 04:55:12 PM
In Darcos' hometown of Périgueux, Rousset is on 36.4% with Darcos trailing with 30.7%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 05:04:12 PM
My big problem is that everyone after Sarkozy is bad (except Fillon, but it won't be him).
And that Aubry is now really in a position of force. And I really hate her. Speaking like Mélenchon, without being Mélenchon, is so disgusting... At least, Daddy was intellectually honest...

Well, I think you shouldn't take conclusion tonight, there is still one run, and these regionals are just one step, for example there will be a big piece of cake for PS with primaries, really and Sarkozy has still 2 years too to try to do something (well I'm not optimistic for the right, but, conclusions tonight for presidentials are really early) .

Yes, remember for the PS that after wonderful 2004 came not-so-good 2005 with the division over the EU, Le Mans and in 2006 came the fights between Royal the Maverick and the elephants.

But there isn't any big event that will be good for the right in the next 3 years...

Reforming the pensions ?
Cutting public spendings ?
Facing a new banlieues revolt ?
Facing agricultural crises ?

So far, so good ;)

And Royal is down now. And DSK is lazy. And Delanoë only aimed at a big post after 2012. And Hollande isn't big enough alone to beat Aubry.
:(


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 14, 2010, 05:06:30 PM
If regional elections in France now follow the pattern of local elections in Britain (and I think they do) then there aren't many national implications to be drawn from these results - as much as I'd like to think otherwise, obviously.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 14, 2010, 05:10:09 PM
If regional elections in France now follow the pattern of local elections in Britain (and I think they do) then there aren't many national implications to be drawn from these results - as much as I'd like to think otherwise, obviously.

Well, for example, if there effectively is a 'grand chelem' of PS next Sunday, that would be important for Aubry, the score of EE is important for them too, it is important for Marine Le Pen too, so yes, maybe they aren't many, there are some, that are undeniable, but not definitive ones to me.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 05:24:32 PM
Results in my neck of the woods now:

Saint-Malo: PS 33.42, UMP 31.78, EE 13.21, FN 6.58, MODEM 4.47
Bovel: PS 33.54, EE 17.39, UMP 16.77, FN 10.56, rural 6.21, PCF 4.35
Rennes: PS 39.68, UMP 21.1, EE 17.96, PCF 4.83, MODEM 4.75, FN 4.51


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 05:28:09 PM
In Pas-de-Calais as a whole, the FN is ahead of the UMP with 19.8% against 15.9% for the UMP.

The FN is at 39.1% in that sh**thole Henin, against 27.3% for the left and 10.1% for EE.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 14, 2010, 05:29:03 PM
Yeah... Be wise... Be careful...
Come on, I know that a political momentum nowadays changes in 6 months, of course.

But I also know that the fundamental political landscape is now very bad for the right in France until 2012.
That all those Le Pen voters (from 1984 to 2007, he was never below 10 % !) who were stolen by the UMP in 2007 (presidential and legislative elections) are now even angrier at the right than before as they fell betrayed.

I also know thatthe villepinistes will be very harsh and that Copé and all the other Chirac-Juppé "babies" (Baroin, Pécresse) will objectively gain from a Sarkozy defeat in 2012, just because it will be better to fight an incumbent and ageing Aubry in 2017.

And the big problem is now that France will soon follow Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and... the UK, as there isn't much money left.
The time is now at cutting public spendings, really...
How can Sarkozy prepare for 2012 without money ? By turning to Berlusconi behaviour ?
He may do it, but a large part of the reasonable would revolt. And Fillon, Woerth et alii would probably go.

No, really, it's over.
The only way for Sarkozy to win would have been a divided PS. And I doubt it will be the case.
Sarkozy lost 2012 when Royal conceded defeat after Reims.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 06:35:51 PM
Clairoix: UMP 28.01, PS 24.45, FN 16.26, GRN 13.25, FG 3.96


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 06:49:09 PM
Orange (84): Ligue 36.6, UMP 18.51, PS 16.67, FN 11.14, GRN 7.73, FG 4.14


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 06:53:28 PM
Alpes-Maritimes (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 32% (29.3%; 35.1%)
PS 22% (30.9%; 10.7%)
FN 16.5% (25%; 11.2%)
EE 15% (17.1%)
FG 5.5% (4.9%)
MoDem 3.5% (6.2%)
Ligue 2.5%
AEI 1% (3.4%; 4.2%)
LO 1% (0.5%)
NPA 1% (2.8%)

UMP 30.93
FN 22.01
PS 20.84
EE 12.59
FG 4.81
MODEM 2.35
AEI 2.32
Ligue 2.09
NPA 1.60
LO 0.45

Quote
Var (2004 comparison result, if applicable, in brackets; 2009 Euros)
UMP 39% (28.5%; 34.5%)
PS 19% (30.1%; 12.4%)
FN 13% (24.1%; 10.7%)
EE 12.5% (14.6%)
FG 7.5% (5.1%)
MoDem 2.5% (6.1%)
Ligue 1.5%
AEI 2% (3.3%; 4.2%)
NPA 2% (3.6%)
LO 1% (0.7%)

UMP 32.97
PS 23.12
FN 20.44
EE 9.69
FG 4.49
AEI 2.51
MODEM 2.34
Ligue 1.95
NPA 1.86
LO 0.62

Poll fail


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 14, 2010, 06:55:05 PM
Grenoble is a fun place: PS 27.6, EE 26.5, UMP 19.4, FN 8.9, FG 8.1, MODEM 4.47


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 07:14:36 PM
Results are avaliable for each department but Hauts-de-Seine and Val-d'Oise.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 08:59:33 PM
And now, all is counted. In all regions, 3 lists or more can be present in the run-off. Sometimes, it is EE, sometimes, FN, sometimes, EE and FN and sometimes PG is added in that. The only exception is Aquitaine, where there is only PS, UMP and MoDem (the only region where they qualify).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 14, 2010, 09:20:09 PM
Results maps:

General results, Languedoc-Roussillon is Frêche.
()

PS results
()

UMP results
()

EE results
()

FN results
()


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 14, 2010, 11:36:57 PM
The results of the American regions are mostly in.

In Guadeloupe, Victorin Lurel (PS) is re-elected with 56,80%. Blaise Aldo (Majority) has 14,00% and Eric Jalton (DVG) has 12,00%.

In Guyane, Rodolphe Alexandre (Majority) at 40,61% will face Christiane Taubira (PRG–Walwari) at 23,02%.

In Martinique, Serge Letchimy (PPM) leads incumbent president Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM), 40,20 % to 32,30%. André Lesueur (Majority), with 10,50%, also proceeds to the runoff.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 15, 2010, 01:16:47 AM
What is that strong UMP region in the lower center and why is it so ?

(Sry, just turned in)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2010, 01:27:00 AM
What is that strong UMP region in the lower center and why is it so ?

(Sry, just turned in)

That is Cantal department, in Auvergne region. It is a right-wing department and the regional UMP candidate is from Cantal. Hashemite probably knows more about that.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2010, 01:37:27 AM
Results by region

Alsace
UMP 34.9
PS 19
EE 15.6
FN 13.5
Alsace d'Abord (far right) 5
Modem 4.4
FG 1.9
NPA 1.6
DVG (some pacifist) 1.6
DVD (running as centre-droit) 1.6
LO 0.9

Aquitaine
PS 37.6
UMP 22.1
Modem 10.4
EE 9.8
FN 8.3
FG 6.0
NPA 2.5
AEI 1.9
LO 0.8
Some basque nationalist 0.7
Another basque nationalist 0.02 (250 votes)

Auvergne
UMP 28.7
PS 28
FG 14.2
EE 10.7
FN 8.4
Modem 4.5
NPA 4.2
LO 1.2

Basse-Normandie
PS 32.6
UMP 27.7
EE 12
Modem 8.9
FN 8.7
FG 5
PDF (Carl Lang and his friends, far right) 3.7
LO 1.5

Bourgogne
PS 36.3
UMP 28.8
FN 12
EE 9.8
FG 4.3
Modem 3.8
AEI 2
LO 1.6
DVG (with a tinpot name: POUR LA BOURGOGNE CITOYENNE "A GAUCHE SUR LES VALEURS DE LA REPUBLIQUE" LISTE D'INITIATIVE CITOYENNE) 1.3

BRETAGNE, BREIZH!
PS 37.2
UMP 23.7
EE 12.2
FN 6.2
Modem 5.4
Nous te ferons Bretagne-Hashemite endorsed 4.3
FG 3.5
Terres de Bretagne 2.6
NPA 2.5
Bretagne Phare du nouveau monde 0.9


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2010, 01:55:50 AM
That's fine, now: 2 and a half years without REAL reforms and the FN up and a PS reunited despite the "ouverture"....
What a defeat for Sarkozy, on all the fronts...

Well, I guess you feel like I do for Obama and the USA... Sarko also gave much hope to the french right (but admit that for the moment he has done more things than Obama :P).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2010, 01:57:00 AM
Oh, just saw the maps. Awesome. :D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2010, 02:06:33 AM
Centre
UMP 29
PS 28.2
EE 11.7
FN 11.2
FG 7.5
Modem 5
PDF 3.6
NPA 2.6
LO 1.1

Champagne-Ardennes
UMP 31.8
PS 31
FN 15.9
EE 8.5
NPA 4.9
Modem 4.3
AEI 2
LO 1.7

Corse, Corsica (threshold at 7%)
UMP 21.3
Simeoni-Régionaliste 18.4
Giaccobi-PRG 15.5
FG 10
Talamoni-Régionaliste 9.4
Zuccarelli-PRG 8
Renucci-DVG 6.6
Modem 4.3
FN 4.2
AEI 1.9
DVD 0.5

Franche-Comté
UMP 32.1
PS 29.9
FN 13.1
EE 9.4
FG 4.1
Modem 3.5
NPA 3.3
PDF 2.5
Random ecologist 1.1
LO 1.1

Haute-Normandie
PS 34.9
UMP 25
FN 11.8
EE 9.1
FG 8.4
Modem 2.9
NPA 2.6
DLR (Dupont-Aigran's gang, "Gaullists") 1.8
PDF 1.5
AEI 1.1
LO 1

Île-de-France
UMP 27.8
PS 25.3
EE 16.6
FN 9.3
FG 6.6
DLR 4.2
Modem 4
NPA 3.1
AEI 1.4
Christians 0.9
LO 0.6
Émergence-DVG 0.4


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2010, 02:28:59 AM
Languedoc-Roussillon-Raciststan
Frêche-Xenophobia-DVG 34.3
UMP 19.6
FN 12.7
EE 9.1
FG 8.6
PS 7.7
AEI 3.9
Union Républicaine Populaire-DVD 2
PDF 0.7
Ligue du Midi-Far Right 0.7
LO 0.6

Limousin
PS 38.1
UMP 24.2
FG 13.1
EE 9.7
FN 7.8
Modem 3.6
AEI 2
LO 1.6

Lorraine
PS 34.4
UMP 23.8
FN 14.9
EE 9.2
Modem 3.2
Non aux minarets en Lorraine 3
FG 3
AEI 2.5
DLR 2.3
NPA 2.2
LO 1.3
La Voix Lorraine 0.4
La Lorraine des générations solidaires (WTF?) 0.1

Midi-Pyrénées
PS 40.9
UMP 21.8
EE 13.5
FN 9.4
FG 6.9
Modem 3.8
NPA 2.9
LO 0.8

Nord-Pas-de-Calais
PS 29.2
UMP 19
FN 18.3
FG 10.8
EE 10.3 (there will be some merging here, 5 lists qualified)
Modem 3.9
Liste Ch'ti-DVD (lol) 3
NPA 3
LO 1.4
Mettez le Pas-de-Calais dans vos assiettes (LOL) 1

Pays (artificiel) de la Loire
PS 34.4
UMP 32.8
EE 13.6
FN 7.1
FG 5
Modem 4.6
LO 1.6
Nous te ferons Bretagne-DVG 1 (They got 11389 votes in Loire-Atlantique, 222 in Sarthe, 29 in Vendée, 17 in Mayenne and 12 in Maine-et-Loire.)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2010, 02:45:14 AM
Picardie
PS 26.6
UMP 25.9
FN 15.8
EE 9.98 (sad)
Gremetz (Stalinist) 6.2
FG 5.4
Modem 3.7
NPA 3
PDF 2
LO 1.3

Poitou-Charente
PS-Royal 39
UMP 30
EE 11.5
FN 7.7
FG 4.8
Modem 4
NPA 2
LO 1

Provence-Alpes-Côte-d'Azur (PACA)
UMP 26.6
PS 25.8
FN 20.3
EE 10.9
FG 6.1
Ligue du Sud-Far Right 2.7
Modem 2.5
AEI 2.3
NPA 2.1
LO 0.6

Rhône-Alpes
UMP 26.4
PS 25.4
EE 17.8
FN 14
FG 6.3
Modem 4.3
NPA 2.4
Spartacus-DVD (???) 1.9
LO 1.4

Réunion
PCR (Communists) 30.2
UMP 26.4
PS 13.1
Nout'Fierté-DVD (Virapoullé)  6.7
Avenir Meillleur (Ramassamy) 5.9
Divers Droite-DVD (Thien-Ah-Koon) 5.4
Le Changement-DVD (Magamootoo) 4.99
EE 4.9
Nasion Renione-Régionalistes (Boyer) 0.9
LO 0.8
Pour l'Égalité totale (Arnachellum) 0.5
Pouny 0.1


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: SPQR on March 15, 2010, 03:40:26 AM
What the hell is wrong with Languedoc-Roussillon?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 15, 2010, 04:35:26 AM
That's fine, now: 2 and a half years without REAL reforms and the FN up and a PS reunited despite the "ouverture"....
What a defeat for Sarkozy, on all the fronts...

Well, I guess you feel like I do for Obama and the USA... Sarko also gave much hope to the french right (but admit that for the moment he has done more things than Obama :P).

Apart from local State offices (which are currently shuffled in a big way), everything has failed or is so light that it doesn't count:
- universities,
- lycées,
- spending cuts (LOL),
- health and hospitals,
- agriculture,
- constitutional reform,
- housing,
- local councils,...

The word of "reform" itself is now a negative one in France.
And we are addicted to public spending. Even the Swedish managed to put an end to the public spending growth.

I dream of a crisis government with Juppé, Woerth, Courson, Lambert, Arthuis, etc, doing the bad work for 3 years and being trounced in elections, but returning triumphantly 5 years later.
But, even if a responsible government acted well, French people wouldn't acknowledge the reality.
They want a 2nd Jospin-Aubry-DSK play, when money was wasted rather than putting an end to public debt and fiscal imbalances...

An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2010, 08:21:49 AM
What is that strong UMP region in the lower center and why is it so ?

(Sry, just turned in)

Cantal. Apart from being Marleix's home turf, it's also, amusingly, the home turf to the PS incumbent. Marleix's from the Saint-Flour plateaus in the mountainous east of the department, it's historically a very, very clerical and Catholic area though some new roads and development have made the left stronger even there. The PS incumbent, whose name I can't remember on my life, comes from the west of the department, in the Aurillac basin (he was mayor of Aurillac). The Aurillac basin is an old industrial and anti-clerical Radical area (the Cantal has a PRG Senator since 2008).

I'm slightly surprised at how well Marleix managed to do there, but he still did worse than VGE did in 2004.

Also, a shout out to Carl Lang. Good job, this time you managed to break 1%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2010, 08:47:05 AM
Also, Max beat me to the maps, but here's a second shot anyway, and as a bonus you get a Paris inset:

()

Giacobbi is red in Haute-Corse.

In Guadeloupe, Victorin Lurel (PS) is re-elected with 56,80%. Blaise Aldo (Majority) has 14,00% and Eric Jalton (DVG) has 12,00%.

Marc (GUSR-DVG) is at 2.8% (lol), and this guy called Cedric Cornet (apparently a video games fan) is at 6.96%.

Penchard has taken a major, major hit here. In Basse-Terre, LMC's turf, Lurel has 61.3% against 17.4% for the UMP candidate. In Penchard's hometown of Gourbeyre, Lurel has 51.6% against 21.3% for Aldo. It's a massive rejection of Penchard-Chevry :), again, in Guadeloupe. If Sarkozy has any sense, he'd dump that stupid bitch for somebody who has a brain.

Quote
In Guyane, Rodolphe Alexandre (Majority) at 40,61% will face Christiane Taubira (PRG–Walwari) at 23,02%.

Now, here, you get a strong result for the UMP, who had a popular left-leaning candidate. The runoff will be tighter, and a lot depends on how the DVD and other candidates act this week. Berthelot (DVG, ex-PSG) took 5.1%, Joëlle Prévôt-Madère (DVD autonomist) took 7.4% and the EE candidate got 5.3%. Roger Arel, Leon Bertrand's candidate, took 4.2%.

I really think the UMP can win here.

Quote
In Martinique, Serge Letchimy (PPM) leads incumbent president Alfred Marie-Jeanne (MIM), 40,20 % to 32,30%. André Lesueur (Majority), with 10,50%, also proceeds to the runoff.

Unsurprising, but the runoff will be interesting. Madeleine de Grandmaison, who got 6.9%, will be king-maker.

I thank Guadeloupe for rejecting Penchard so massively.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2010, 10:11:03 AM
Isn't the reform already done now (which obviously is bad new for me) ?

Quote
- lycées,
They have started to work on the "reform", and I'm glad my little brother will be just old enough to escape it. :P

Quote
- spending cuts (LOL),
Indeed LOL. Basically, it's indeed a total failure, but you can't say he didn't try. The only problem is that while dogmatically applying the "one of to civil servants not replaced" inanity, they at the same time practiced a fiscally irresponsible policy that ruined the Stat even more.

Quote
- health and hospitals,
Isn't it done also ? If it's not, I'm glad to learn it.

Quote
- agriculture,
What was he exactly supposed to do ? The agricultural policy is mainly an european one.

Quote
- constitutional reform,
It passed few time ago, even though it's a quite light one.

Quote
- housing,
Don't remember anything particular, true.

Quote
- local councils,...
You mean the obnoxious reform of the voting system they are preparing for 2014 ?


Quote
The word of "reform" itself is now a negative one in France.

The problem is that Sarkozy used it as if it was a positive term in itself. Remorm just means "change" : change can be good or bad, depends how it was before. Obviously some things need to be changed, but not everything and not in the way the government is doing.


Quote
And we are addicted to public spending. Even the Swedish managed to put an end to the public spending growth.

The problem isn't public spending itself, but public deficit. Maybe the first step would be not to cut the recipes by fiscal exoneration, but... ::)


Quote
I dream of a crisis government with Juppé, Woerth, Courson, Lambert, Arthuis, etc, doing the bad work for 3 years and being trounced in elections, but returning triumphantly 5 years later.
But, even if a responsible government acted well, French people wouldn't acknowledge the reality.
They want a 2nd Jospin-Aubry-DSK play, when money was wasted rather than putting an end to public debt and fiscal imbalances...

Come on, you can disagree with Jospin's policies in many ways (and we already discussed this I think), but admit that this time was pretty good on several aspects, especially compared with the current situation. Maybe in two years we'll see what a new socialist government is able to achieve, but I doubt it would be as awful as the current one.


Quote
An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).

Ideologically leftist, yes (and also with a pretty archaic and unrealistic left, that is the real problem). Maybe not that much as external observers believe, at least I fear that most people in France as elsewhere are more and more mistrusting the Welfare State. Sarkozy's win in 2007 (besides the problem of her opponent) proves that people have interiorized the ideas that "things should change" in terms of Welfare State and in general of the Stte's action. And even though now they seem reluctant, I fear they will eventually accept all the future neoliberal "reforms". Another thing that, reversely, makes me think to the USA.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2010, 11:38:33 AM
Deadline for new runoff lists in tomorrow, 18:00. The Greenies and PS are actively negotiating.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2010, 11:44:08 AM
Deadline for new runoff lists in tomorrow, 18:00. The Greenies and PS are actively negotiating.

Well yeah, they have to hurry up now.

Damn, when I think that an united FG+PS+V list in Languedoc would have polled 25% I really feel bad... :(


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2010, 11:55:11 AM
Damn, when I think that an united FG+PS+V list in Languedoc would have polled 25% I really feel bad... :(

You can thank the PS for that. Furthermore, the PS will vote for the racist collabo in the runoff, indirectly. Thankfully the Greens have some integrity and they don't change their positions, they won't vote for the racist collabo.

Couderc is, amusingly, proposing spots to the Greenies and Socialists on his lists... A large anti-Freche"Republican Front" would be fun, but it won't happen. Thanks a lot, Martine!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 15, 2010, 12:40:37 PM
An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).

France is the most right-wing country in western Europe (apart from perhaps Ireland, but Ireland is so different that a comparison is impossible).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 15, 2010, 12:41:14 PM
Damn, when I think that an united FG+PS+V list in Languedoc would have polled 25% I really feel bad... :(

You can thank the PS for that. Furthermore, the PS will vote for the racist collabo in the runoff, indirectly. Thankfully the Greens have some integrity and they don't change their positions, they won't vote for the racist collabo.

Couderc is, amusingly, proposing spots to the Greenies and Socialists on his lists... A large anti-Freche"Republican Front" would be fun, but it won't happen. Thanks a lot, Martine!

Oh, damn, it, damn it.
Either she didn't started the anti-Frêche campagne or she should have going until the and and done the things correctly. Yes, that means abandoning the list head to Roumégas. And so ? At least it would have been the symbol of the left's unity against a populist dumbass. At the second round, they would easily have fusione with FG and would have had a decent representation in the Assembly. Damn it.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 15, 2010, 12:49:17 PM
An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).

France is the most right-wing country in western Europe (apart from perhaps Ireland, but Ireland is so different that a comparison is impossible).

Haha, here you are again with that, I waited a development last time to answer on it. Well, iirc, you base it on the fact that its labor policies have been right-wing for a while now.

So, if you haven't any other justification, first yes, but you start with a very leftist country and you go on the right doesn't mean you pass right wing, policies went in the right direction but the country remains on the left part of the spectrum, and one of the most leftist in Europe. Second, it's wrong, regularly France produced new leftist labor policies in the last years, like retirement at 60 years in 1981, or 35h under Jospin, just for the big ones.

And, when, more of that, you compare to other countries in Europe, and, hmm, let's compare to Germany for example, of which the last left that led the country during a long while was Schroëder, and then switch to a coalition led by Merkel, and then switch to Merkel + FDP, and when you look at, for example, Spanish and British left, and when you look at Italy, not to speak about the fact that our far-right is until now amongst the softer of Europe, if you don't produce other arguments, this 'France is the most right wing country of Europe' is lol lol lol to me.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 15, 2010, 03:07:41 PM
An ideologically leftist country with a deeply stupid right: France has been no more than this since 1945 and will be for the foreseeable future. De Gaulle was just an artificial distortion, an exception (but himself wasn't very able in his industrial, social, agricultural policies).

France is the most right-wing country in western Europe (apart from perhaps Ireland, but Ireland is so different that a comparison is impossible).
:D
Don't just look at weak unions and at people who hold the presidency or the prime-ministership.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 15, 2010, 04:09:11 PM
At least Greens are saving their honour in Brittany where there will be a 3-way runoff...

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales/article/2010/03/15/bretagne-europe-ecologie-et-le-ps-annoncent-une-triangulaire_1319787_1293905.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2010, 04:14:59 PM
At least Greens are saving their honour in Brittany where there will be a 3-way runoff...

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales/article/2010/03/15/bretagne-europe-ecologie-et-le-ps-annoncent-une-triangulaire_1319787_1293905.html

Yup, Le Drian has seen that he can do without the Greenies and he's been acting quite arrogantly (surprising coming from him). Should be fun.

I suppose Troadec's voters will vote Green.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 15, 2010, 04:54:29 PM
At least Greens are saving their honour in Brittany where there will be a 3-way runoff...

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales/article/2010/03/15/bretagne-europe-ecologie-et-le-ps-annoncent-une-triangulaire_1319787_1293905.html

Yup, Le Drian has seen that he can do without the Greenies and he's been acting quite arrogantly (surprising coming from him). Should be fun.

I suppose Troadec's voters will vote Green.

Well, Le Drian will win anyways. I don't see Malgorn winning, she has not enough reserves.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2010, 05:09:48 PM
At least Greens are saving their honour in Brittany where there will be a 3-way runoff...

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-regionales/article/2010/03/15/bretagne-europe-ecologie-et-le-ps-annoncent-une-triangulaire_1319787_1293905.html

Yup, Le Drian has seen that he can do without the Greenies and he's been acting quite arrogantly (surprising coming from him). Should be fun.

I suppose Troadec's voters will vote Green.

Well, Le Drian will win anyways. I don't see Malgorn winning, she has not enough reserves.

Oh, no, Le Drian can't lose, that's for certain. I never thought that.

No UMP candidate, especially not Malgorn, has enough reserves!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 15, 2010, 07:06:41 PM
Apparently talks between Greenies and PS haven't been perfect, though they have a deal in PACA, Poitou, Alsace, Midi-Pyrenees (lol Onesta) and Champage-Ardenne; nothing Bretagne, unknown in IdF... Yet knowing how the Greenies are nothing more than the PS' little sidekick, they'll get together.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 15, 2010, 09:43:27 PM
The language of French politics is very left-wing, yes. Post-Revolution it always has been. But we have to remember that language isn't reality, or rather, that it isn't the only reality. If we judged left-and-right by language alone, we have no choice but to consider SFIO to have been one of the most left-wing political organisations ever to actually win seats in a national legislature - an idea that is more than slightly absurd.

If we look at policy and the parties themselves, then the picture is much more mixed and depends (as is almost always the case) on individual conceptions of left and right. A Marxist (well, a real Marxist, anyway) would have no choice but to consider French politics to be remarkably right-wing for a country in the western half of Europe, while someone from the 'libertarian' Right would have equally little choice in branding it as remarkably left-wing. Someone interested in patterns of state intervention and welfare policies would mostly note paternalism above all else (at least since 1945), someone interested in elections and power structures would note entrenched conservatism with quixotic anti-establishment tendencies. And, I suppose, someone from a minority group would, presumably, be quite likely to take one look at 'racial' discourses in French society and politics and agree with the Marxist, though for totally different reasons.

But this feeds back into the issue of language, I think; though obviously not in the same way. My understanding of what it is to be on the Left is probably different to yours (whoever you happen to be), and yours will not be the same as the first person to read this post after you.

It is a quarter to three in the morning.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 16, 2010, 01:27:41 AM
Also, Max beat me to the maps, but here's a second shot anyway, and as a bonus you get a Paris inset:

()

This is going to pretty red after the run-off ... :)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 16, 2010, 01:38:53 AM
Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2010, 02:18:35 AM
Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?

Well, the PS has been ahed of EE in every region, so they will keep the head of lists in everyone. As for the lists, it should be proportional to the number of votes got.


Apparently talks between Greenies and PS haven't been perfect, though they have a deal in PACA, Poitou, Alsace, Midi-Pyrenees (lol Onesta) and Champage-Ardenne; nothing Bretagne, unknown in IdF... Yet knowing how the Greenies are nothing more than the PS' little sidekick, they'll get together.

According to what I heard, it's going quite bad. But they can't be stupid enough not to ally in strategical regions.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 16, 2010, 02:34:51 AM
Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?

Well, the PS has been ahed of EE in every region, so they will keep the head of lists in everyone. As for the lists, it should be proportional to the number of votes got.

I´m just asking, because in 2004 for example in Aquitaine, the FN candidate ranked 4th in the 1st round behind the UDF candidate, but it was the FN candidate who advanced to the second round.

And why do some regions have run-offs with 3 candidates and others just with 2 candidates and in the case of Corse even more ? How is that determined how many candidates advance to round 2 ?

Maybe Hashemite knows more about that.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2010, 06:05:16 AM
Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?

Well, the PS has been ahed of EE in every region, so they will keep the head of lists in everyone. As for the lists, it should be proportional to the number of votes got.

I´m just asking, because in 2004 for example in Aquitaine, the FN candidate ranked 4th in the 1st round behind the UDF candidate, but it was the FN candidate who advanced to the second round.

And why do some regions have run-offs with 3 candidates and others just with 2 candidates and in the case of Corse even more ? How is that determined how many candidates advance to round 2 ?

Maybe Hashemite knows more about that.

Every list which has more than 10% of votes can make it to the runoff.

And when you have more than 5%, you can merge with another list which has more than 10%.

So, one list with 11% can make it to the runoff, alone, while another one with 16% will merge with one with 8%, and again another one with 13% will merge with one with 30%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2010, 06:13:20 AM
Le Télégramme de Brest has published rather interesting maps with results by communes in Bretagne.

One big fact: apart from the NW of Morbihan, everywhere, the abstention is high in rightist strongholds...
()

Otherwise, no big surprise.
Right is right, left is left, EE is bobo, MoDem is no more than a local thingee and isn't relevant any longer, Laot is rural, Troadec is leftist Breton.

()

()



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2010, 06:25:59 AM
The language of French politics is very left-wing, yes. Post-Revolution it always has been. But we have to remember that language isn't reality, or rather, that it isn't the only reality. If we judged left-and-right by language alone, we have no choice but to consider SFIO to have been one of the most left-wing political organisations ever to actually win seats in a national legislature - an idea that is more than slightly absurd.

If we look at policy and the parties themselves, then the picture is much more mixed and depends (as is almost always the case) on individual conceptions of left and right. A Marxist (well, a real Marxist, anyway) would have no choice but to consider French politics to be remarkably right-wing for a country in the western half of Europe, while someone from the 'libertarian' Right would have equally little choice in branding it as remarkably left-wing. Someone interested in patterns of state intervention and welfare policies would mostly note paternalism above all else (at least since 1945), someone interested in elections and power structures would note entrenched conservatism with quixotic anti-establishment tendencies. And, I suppose, someone from a minority group would, presumably, be quite likely to take one look at 'racial' discourses in French society and politics and agree with the Marxist, though for totally different reasons.

But this feeds back into the issue of language, I think; though obviously not in the same way. My understanding of what it is to be on the Left is probably different to yours (whoever you happen to be), and yours will not be the same as the first person to read this post after you.

It is a quarter to three in the morning.

Come on... The way immigrants are viewed and dealt with isn't any longer a right/left criteria: many people in France switched directly from blue-collar and popular (and populist..) left to the far-right.

But, more seriously:
Look at the rate of public spendings.
Look at the importance of public employment, not only in government but laso in public businesses.
Look at the age of retirement.
Look at the health system and the way hospitals are funded.
Look at the French agricultural policy (or its leitmotives in European agricultural policy).
Look at the inability of any local politician to slash spendings in any level of local government.
Look at the educational system and the university system, what is learnt and how it is learnt.
Look at the results of left/right polls among teachers.
Look at the results of left/right polls among journalists.
Look at the shelves of bookshops.
Look at the people who take part in TV talkshows.

France isn't a rightist country, that's for sure.
Paternalistic, corporatist, populist, if you want.
Lazily leftist, more probably.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2010, 07:26:00 AM
Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?

Well, the PS has been ahed of EE in every region, so they will keep the head of lists in everyone. As for the lists, it should be proportional to the number of votes got.

I´m just asking, because in 2004 for example in Aquitaine, the FN candidate ranked 4th in the 1st round behind the UDF candidate, but it was the FN candidate who advanced to the second round.

And why do some regions have run-offs with 3 candidates and others just with 2 candidates and in the case of Corse even more ? How is that determined how many candidates advance to round 2 ?

The UDF used to merge its lists with the UMP in the Second Round, so they became one list. The FN instead never does. An in Corse the threshold is smaller, to fit with the island's particular politics.


Look at the educational system and the university system, what is learnt and how it is learnt.

Here I'd like to have some examples, because I really fail to see what in the program is so "left-wing".


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 16, 2010, 07:27:15 AM
Come on... The way immigrants are viewed and dealt with isn't any longer a right/left criteria:

My point was that left-and-right are relative (or largely relative) concepts. Public attitudes to minority groups in France don't have to fit into the ritualised boxes of French political life to be viewed as right-wing (or whatever), especially as such a judgment would have more to do general discourses and casual racism than with formal protestations on 'immigrant' issues. I don't really share that point of view, but quite a few people do.

Quote
But, more seriously:
Look at the rate of public spendings.
Look at the importance of public employment, not only in government but laso in public businesses.
Look at the age of retirement.
Look at the health system and the way hospitals are funded.
Look at the French agricultural policy (or its leitmotives in European agricultural policy).
Look at the inability of any local politician to slash spendings in any level of local government.
Look at the educational system and the university system, what is learnt and how it is learnt.
Look at the results of left/right polls among teachers.
Look at the results of left/right polls among journalists.
Look at the shelves of bookshops.
Look at the people who take part in TV talkshows.

Similar comments can be made about almost every other country in 'Western' Europe, though with a different choice of examples in some cases (but not always). Though... the point about left-and-right being (in part) relative returns... I would certainly never view French agricultural policy (or its influence on overall European agricultural policy) as left-wing, and have difficulty accepting that there's something unusually left-wing about the French healthcare system or the way its funded, though (in both cases) you obviously do.

Personally, I'm not really sure if catagorising countries on left-right lines is especially useful, as there's too much going on and too many different (and conflicting) ways of looking at the issue (which is always the problem with abstractions).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 08:17:12 AM
Question:

How is it determined in each region which candidate can advance to the run-off in 1 week ?

Well, the PS has been ahed of EE in every region, so they will keep the head of lists in everyone. As for the lists, it should be proportional to the number of votes got.

I´m just asking, because in 2004 for example in Aquitaine, the FN candidate ranked 4th in the 1st round behind the UDF candidate, but it was the FN candidate who advanced to the second round.

And why do some regions have run-offs with 3 candidates and others just with 2 candidates and in the case of Corse even more ? How is that determined how many candidates advance to round 2 ?

Maybe Hashemite knows more about that.

Theoretically, the threshold is 10% of votes cast (as opposed to registered voters), and if you break 5% your list can merge with another list to guarantee you, in some sort, councillors. That said, the EE lists and FG list qualified will merge with the PS (except Breizh, it seems) and in 2004 most UDF lists dropped out.

Filing stuff is entirely different from one round to another, there's no connection.

The UDF used to merge its lists with the UMP in the Second Round, so they became one list. The FN instead never does. An in Corse the threshold is smaller, to fit with the island's particular politics.

Careful now. In most regions, the UDF merged with the UMP (Aquitaine, IDF, BZH, Centre, Champagne etc). But in places like Basse-Normandie, Bourgogne; relations between UMP and UDF were so bad that they didn't merge but the UDF did not, for that matter, stay in the runoff.

Also, in Champagne and Midi, the Greenies didn't merge with the PS in 2004.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 08:46:42 AM
Comments:


Low turnout is the right's base in eastern Ille-et-Vilaine and other right-leaning areas. Confirms what everybody else saw in the country. It's probably the sign of major rural discontent with the UMP, as well.

Quote
()

PS: no surprises, best results in working-class areas or rural leftie areas. Low results in central Bretagne, major cities due to regionalists and Greenies. Good results also in more swing areas in central northern Morbihan around Pontivy, it usually leans right but it is a swing area, and has been such for a long time.
EE: Rennes and its large suburbia, the wealthier parts of the Cote du granite rose in the Cotes-d'Armor (maybe 'algues vertes' played an effect here).
PB: Troadec's strong base in Carhaix and the area (it's from here that he really improved upon the PB's 2009 result), and the rest of the map is a map of the 'Bretonitude' of the area: traditionally Celtic and Breton-speaking areas for him, Gallo Bretagne less so.

Quote
()

UMP: Wealthy areas, old reactionary right strongholds in the eastern reaches of Ille-et-Vilaine/Leon/parts of eastern Morbihan. Bad in cities in suburbia...
MoDem: friends-and-neighbors for Joncour around Saint-Brieuc. No centrist UDF pattern at all (all those have totally disappeared). Map of a joke party.
Laot: rural areas (shock!). I feel he could've done better overall, though.

Thanks for these maps, Fabien.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 16, 2010, 10:38:21 AM
- Laot reached 15-20% in many small communes... That's pretty good.

But as soon as you are in a circle of 25 km of great cities or as soon as you are in small cities (look at Vitré...), he is between 0 and 1.5%.
In Ille-et-Vilaine, that's amazing.

- Joncour's result indeed shows how the MoDem has vanished in this election.
And still, nationally, this is a good result for the MoDem !!!

- As for "algues vertes", not in the core "côte de granit rose", because "algues vertes" are an issue more in the south of baie de Lannion, where EE isn't so strong. And in the east of baie de Saint-Brieuc, EE is even weak. In baie de Concarneau and baie de Douarnenez, it's not so clear.
So, this issue, though a mediatic one, doesn't seem to have played a big role for the Greens.
(Troadec has clearly been a nuisance for them, on the contrary; BTW, he's currently hesitating in his appeal to vote: he initially supported Le Drian but with a unified left list; now, he's "thinking").


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 10:48:11 AM
Communal results of interest

Large cities:

Paris: UMP 28.95, PS 26.26, GRN 20.57, FG 6.11, FN 6.1, MODEM 3.96, DLR 2.92, NPA 2.34
Paris-2: GRN 28.94, PS 25.52, UMP 24.18, FG 5.21, MODEM 4.79, FN 4.45 (bobo)
Paris-16: UMP 60.53, PS 11.31, GRN 9.31, FN 7.06, DLR 3.91, MODEM 3.07 (snobs)
Paris-20: PS 30.69, GRN 24.62, UMP 14.86, FG 10.55, FN 6.5, NPA 3.84, MODEM 3.69 (poors)
Marseille: PS 29.6, UMP 22.37, FN 21.48, GRN 10.05, FG 7.2, NPA 2.72, MODEM 2.38
Marseille-4: UMP 32.9, PS 22.75, FN 16.73, GRN 13.41, FG 5.44, MODEM 2.73, AEI 2.29
Marseille-8: PS 39.44, FN 24.76, FG 11.28, UMP 10.06, GRN 5.84, NPA 3.51
Marseille Arr3: PS 40.24, FN 22.89, UMP 11.36, FG 8.91, GRN 5.92, NPA 5.01 (poorest)
Marseille Arr8: UMP 35.49, PS 21.32, FN 17.85, GRN 11.98, FG 5.14, MODEM 2.67 (wealthiest)
Lyon: UMP 28.54, PS 26.8, GRN 20.32, FN 9.77, FG 5.34, MODEM 4.89
Lyon-1: GRN 29.98, PS 28.04, UMP 18.73, FG 9.43, FN 4.97, MODEM 3.63, NPA 3.36 (bobo)
Lyon-2: UMP 40.37, PS 20.39, GRN 17.11, FN 10.79, MODEM 4.77, FG 3.38 (rich people)
Lyon-4: UMP 26.85, PS 25.83, GRN 25.47, FG 6.88, FN 6.86, MODEM 3.9 (bobo)
Lyon-6: UMP 45.04, PS 20.49, GRN 15.39, FN 9.29, MODEM 4.39, FG 2.9 (rich people)
Lyon-9: PS 31.19, UMP 20.79, GRN 20.66, FN 10.64, FG 5.78, MODEM 5.18 (gentrifying old working-class faubourg)
Toulouse: PS 35.06, UMP 22.38, GRN 18.88, FN 8.64, FG 7.61, MODEM 3.66
Nice: UMP 29.95, FN 23.14, PS 23.13, GRN 10.28, FG 4.94, MODEM 2.33
Nantes/Naoned: PS 36.5, UMP 27.17, GRN 18.47, FG 6.1, FN 4.92, MODEM 3.87, REG 2.06
Strasbourg: UMP 30.32, PS 29.08, GRN 18.51, FN 7.95, MODEM 3.65, FG 2.98, AA 2.57
Montpellier: DVG 40.73, UMP 13.86, GRN 12.62, PS 11.36, FN 7.5, FG 7.31, DVD 2.63, AEI 2.49
Bordeaux: PS 35.19, UMP 28.4, GRN 13.4, MODEM 6.78, FN 6.48, FG 5.64
Lille: PS 34.09, UMP 18.38, GRN 18.07, FN 11.79, FG 6.69, MODEM 4.64, NPA 3.19
Rennes/Roazhon: PS 39.68, UMP 21.1, GRN 17.96, PCF 4.83, MODEM 4.75, FN 4.51, NPA 2.9, REG 1.81
Le Havre: PS 29.95, UMP 24.48, FG 11.37, FN 10.66, DLR 5.36, NPA 2.63
Toulon: UMP 36.75, PS 23.14, FN 18.74, FG 4.39, MODEM 2.36, AEI 2.05
Grenoble: PS 27.6, EE 26.5, UMP 19.4, FN 8.9, FG 8.1, MODEM 4.47, NPA 2.87
Angers: UMP 35.66, PS 33.58, GRN 15.03, FN 5.47, FG 5.23, MODEM 3.92 (Bechu's city)

Cities of interest:

Pau: PS 34.43, UMP 21.65, MODEM 13.6, GRN 10.83, FN 7.86, FG 5.72, NPA 2.76
Bordères: PS 37.9, MODEM 31.53, FG 7.96, GRN 6.69, UMP 6.37 (Bayrou's village)
Fulleren: GRN 44.74, UMP 21.05, FN 15.79, PS 7.89, AA 3.95 (Waechter's village)
Mulhouse: UMP 24.17, PS 23.13, FN 19.17, GRN 15.04, AA 3.86, NPA 3.13, FG 3.09, MODEM 2.97, DVD 2.51 (Bockel's city)
Ajaccio: Renucci 21.58, REG 18.20, UMP 17.81, FG 10.55, NAT 9.78, FN 6.8, Zuccarelli 4.22, Giacobbi 3.96, MODEM 3.94
Bastia: Zuccarelli 28.65, REG 18.57, FG 13.75, UMP 10.23, NAT 8.83, Giacobbi 7.65, FN 4.7
Venaco: Giacobbi 65.01, UMP 11.85, REG 7.27, FG 4.21, NAT 4.97 (Giacobbi dynasty village)
Piano: REG 27.27, UMP 18.18, Giacobbi 18.18, FN 13.64, FG 9.09, AEI 9.09, NAT 4.55 (100% for Le Pen, April 21 2002)
Porto-Vecchio: REG 34.33, UMP 33.83, NAT 7.44, FG 6.88, MODEM 5.13, Giacobbi 3.57, FN 2.89 (Rocca Serra dynasty town)
Sartène: FG 31.49, MODEM 24.24, REG 14.38, UMP 12.79, NAT 6.87, Giacobbi 2.77, Zuccarelli 2.45 (Bucchini's town)
Calvi: UMP 52.27, REG 19.23, Giacobbi 8.99, FG 4.72, NAT 4.67, FN 3.74 (Ange Santini's town)
Villiers-le-Bel: PS 47.77, FN 13.62, UMP 13.49, GRN 8.04, FG 4.51, NPA 3.45 (Soumare's town)
Neuilly-sur-Seine: UMP 67.05, GRN 8.41, PS 7.81, FN 6.33, DLR 3.95, MODEM 2.75 (Sarko)
Yerres: DLR 49.78, PS 16.19, GRN 10.79, UMP 7.83, FN 5.33, FG 4.6, NPA 2.06 (NDA's town)
Béziers: UMP 34.44, DVG 26.26, FN 14.77, PS 6.7, FG 6.54, GRN 5.48, AEI 2.72 (Couderc's town)
Pézenas: DVG 32.97, UMP 21.15, FN 10.41, PS 8.61, FG 8.07, AEI 7.94, GRN 7.67 (Drevet's adopted town)
Palavas-les-Flots: DVD 51.72, DVG 18.32, FN 8.48, UMP 6.63, GRN 4.75, FG 3.66, PS 2.64 (Jeanjean's town, wealthy resort town)
Grabels: DVG 29.5, FG 24.26, UMP 17.13, GRN 8.37, FN 8.23, PS 6.91, AEI 2.6 (Revol's town, working-class suburb of Montpellier)
Carhaix-Plouguer: REG 42.38, PS 25.22, UMP 12.44, GRN 6.33, PCF 3.71, NPA 3.13, FN 2.86 (Troadec's town)
Saint-Brieuc: PS 32.92, MODEM 23.57, UMP 14.01, GRN 12.3, FN 4.95, PCF 4.47, NPA 3.52 (Joncour's town)
Trébeurden: PS 31.03, UMP 23.23, GRN 19.18, FN 6.23, MODEM 5.99, REG 3.87, NPA 3.02 (Hascoet's adopted town)
Hennebont: PS 30.64, PCF 21.01, UMP 17.47, GRN 12.4, FN 5.97, MODEM 3.32, NPA 3.18, REG 2.63 (PCF top candidate is mayor)
La Trinité-sur-Mer: UMP 49.83, PS 20.28, GRN 11.12, FN 8.81, MODEM 3.48, REG 2.43 (Le Pen's family hometown)
Lanildut: UMP 27.34, PS 27.1, GRN 13.32, rural 12.38, FN 6.07, REG 3.04, NPA 2.34, PCF 2.34 (Laot-rural list leader's hometown)
Douarnenez: PS 33.49, UMP 27.17, GRN 13.1, PCF 6.23, FN 5.31, REG 4.38 (first PCF commune in France, 1921)
Donzère: UMP 27.8, FN 23.25, PS 21.74, GRN 11.13, FG 5.2, MODEM 3.95, NPA 2.96 (Besson's village)
Hénin-Beaumont: FN 39.08, PS 27.27, GRN 10.1, FG 7.87, UMP 7.26, NPA 2.78, CNI 2.37
Saint-André-lez-Lille: MODEM 28.63, PS 22.71, UMP 16.53, GRN 12.16, FN 9.95, FG 5.29, NPA 2.21 (Henno-MoDem top candidate is mayor)
Saint-Amand-les-Eaux: FG 58.07, UMP 15.07, FN 9.92, PS 7.04, GRN 5.02 (Bocquet's town)
Calais: PS 21.75, FG 20.56, FN 18.67, UMP 16.96, GRN 9.54, NPA 4.22, MODEM 3.42, CNI 3.05
Chamalières: UMP 42.3, PS 19.92, GRN 15.39, FG 6.94, FN 6.56, MODEM 6.26 (Giscard family stronghold)
Saint-Amant-Roche-Savine: FG 60.92, UMP 11.49, FN 9.58, GRN 7.28, PS 5.75 (Chassaigne's town)
Vichy: UMP 40.77 (lol), PS 22.18, FN 13.39 (yeah...), GRN 10.03, FG 6.37, MODEM 3.8, NPA 2.72
Commentry: PS 36.86, UMP 23.4, FG 16.21, FN 6.9, GRN 6.02, NPA 5.81 (first socialist town in France, 1882 or something)
Massiac: UMP 44.51, UMP 35.56, GRN 5.49, MODEM 4.42, FN 4.18, FG 3.58 (Marleix's town)
Melle: PS 52.62, UMP 20.72, GRN 11.71, FG 5.16, FN 4.08 (Royal's stronghold)
Saint-Georges-de-Didonne: UMP 45.8, PS 28.03, GRN 10.51, FN 8.57, MODEM 3.13 (Bussereau's town)
Vitteaux: UMP 46, PS 34.5, FN 9.5, GRN 5.25, MODEM 2.75 (Sauvadet's town)
Saint-Pierre-des-Corps: FG 45.71, PS 17.63, GRN 10.88, UMP 10.9, FN 5.99, NPA 3.31, PDF 2.31 (Beaufils-FG top candidate in Centre's hometown, industrial suburb of Tours)

I have enough for now.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 10:53:37 AM
- Laot reached 15-20% in many small communes... That's pretty good.

But as soon as you are in a circle of 25 km of great cities or as soon as you are in small cities (look at Vitré...), he is between 0 and 1.5%.
In Ille-et-Vilaine, that's amazing.

Overall, he got 2.3%. I think he could have reaches 4-5% rather easily. The fact that he's dead in cities isn't surprising, really, of course, just like CPNT was dead in cities in its heyday.

Quote
So, this issue, though a mediatic one, doesn't seem to have played a big role for the Greens.

It's very interesting how little effect local environmental issues have for the Greenies (except maybe Notre-Dame-des-Landes - the Greenies won over 30% there), around nuclear plants, mediatic environmental problems or open-air trash cans etc. In some countries, a good part of the Green vote comes from areas with recent environmental or ecology-related problems.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 11:07:46 AM
Apparently talks between FG-NPA and the PS in Limousin have broken down and there will be triangulaire between PS, UMP and FG-NPA there. The PS didn't want an NPA candidate in an eligible spot.

In NPDC, talks are apparently resuming between the FG and PS, after the FG was rumoured to have walked out and ready to spark a quadrangulaire.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 16, 2010, 11:24:29 AM
The Plaid Llydaw map is interesting. Reminds me, just a little, of electoral patterns somewhere else...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2010, 11:25:53 AM
Well... It's pretty stupid that they didn't merge their lists in Bretagne. Anyways, Le Drian will probably win without EE, and the only result will be that they will have less seats in the Council. A pity for them.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 11:30:42 AM
Well... It's pretty stupid that they didn't merge their lists in Bretagne. Anyways, Le Drian will probably win without EE, and the only result will be that they will have less seats in the Council. A pity for them.

Le Drian was giving them 10 seats, against 11 in 2004. Obviously, they had the honour to say no.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2010, 11:34:33 AM
Well... It's pretty stupid that they didn't merge their lists in Bretagne. Anyways, Le Drian will probably win without EE, and the only result will be that they will have less seats in the Council. A pity for them.

Le Drian was giving them 10 seats, against 11 in 2004. Obviously, they had the honour to say no.

It all depends to the score they made (yeah, I'm to lazy to look at the results and see how much they would deserve with a proportional repartition), but yes, it seems a clear underrepresentation.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 11:37:31 AM
Well... It's pretty stupid that they didn't merge their lists in Bretagne. Anyways, Le Drian will probably win without EE, and the only result will be that they will have less seats in the Council. A pity for them.

Le Drian was giving them 10 seats, against 11 in 2004. Obviously, they had the honour to say no.

It all depends to the score they made (yeah, I'm to lazy to look at the results and see how much they would deserve with a proportional repartition), but yes, it seems a clear underrepresentation.

EE says they deserve 14-15.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 16, 2010, 12:03:54 PM
Paris: UMP 28.95, PS 26.26, GRN 20.57, FG 6.11, FN 6.1, MODEM 3.96, DLR 2.92, NPA 2.34
Paris-2: GRN 28.94, PS 25.52, UMP 24.18, FG 5.21, MODEM 4.79, FN 4.45 (bobo)
Paris-16: UMP 60.53, PS 11.31, GRN 9.31, FN 7.06, DLR 3.91, MODEM 3.07 (snobs)
Paris-20: PS 30.69, GRN 24.62, UMP 14.86, FG 10.55, FN 6.5, NPA 3.84, MODEM 3.69 (poors)

What I find amazing about Paris is not the high level of spatial polarization, but the fact it perpetuates despite social changes (gentryfication, boboisation). Exactly the opposite of Lyon.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 12:37:55 PM
As always, geoclip has results for almost every level: http://www.geoclip.fr/fr/


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 16, 2010, 12:40:49 PM
Well... It's pretty stupid that they didn't merge their lists in Bretagne. Anyways, Le Drian will probably win without EE, and the only result will be that they will have less seats in the Council. A pity for them.

Le Drian was giving them 10 seats, against 11 in 2004. Obviously, they had the honour to say no.

It all depends to the score they made (yeah, I'm to lazy to look at the results and see how much they would deserve with a proportional repartition), but yes, it seems a clear underrepresentation.

EE says they deserve 14-15.

Well, it's probably true. Not surprising from the PS : they praise Greens where they need them and bully them where they don't.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 16, 2010, 04:41:51 PM
Just a little question to our Breton secessionist, why is the PB so strong in Loire-Atlantique from Notre-Dame-des-Landes to the boundary since it seems significantly weaker on the other side of the Brittany border ?

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=170&u=11949248)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 06:51:14 PM
Just a little question to our Breton secessionist, why is the PB so strong in Loire-Atlantique from Notre-Dame-des-Landes to the boundary since it seems significantly weaker on the other side of the Brittany border ?

I'm not a secessionist! I'm not sure with the PB did well in that area, it didn't do that well there in 2009 so it's either some sort of very local factor maybe surrounding the candidate, weird results caused by turnout or something else. I didn't think it can be because of the airport, that's the Green thing though I think Troadec opposed it as well.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 06:58:25 PM
News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:

()

lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 16, 2010, 07:11:23 PM
What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 16, 2010, 07:15:47 PM
Lorraine is amazing. Marseille and surrounds too, actually. And three coalfield constituencies for the commie in Nord; not surprising (popular local deputy and all that) but interesting.

Oh, and Orne. Haha.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 07:21:38 PM
What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 16, 2010, 08:16:11 PM
Party maps:

()

()

()

()

()

()


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: PGSable on March 16, 2010, 09:13:40 PM
Just a little question to our Breton secessionist, why is the PB so strong in Loire-Atlantique from Notre-Dame-des-Landes to the boundary since it seems significantly weaker on the other side of the Brittany border ?

() (http://www.servimg.com/image_preview.php?i=170&u=11949248)

Note that Jacky Flippot, the PB list's first candidate in Pays de la Loire, is the former deputy mayor of Blain (which is the largest commune in the darkest shade in Loire-Atlantique, directly north of Notre-Dame-des-Landes).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 16, 2010, 09:23:46 PM
The center has finally been assimilated into the right.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2010, 01:47:41 AM
News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:

()

lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ? ;)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2010, 07:34:32 AM
Wow... Just heard Bernard Debré at the radio and he said things that would have been unthinkable for a right-winger just some months before... :o Really, it's the first time I hear such criticism (yeah, Juppé also has already been a "free speaker", but it's more). I really start thinking the "Sarkozy system" is beginning to collapse...
And that makes me feel good. ;D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 17, 2010, 08:20:24 AM
News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:

()

lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ? ;)

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2010, 08:32:38 AM
News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:

()

lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ? ;)

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

Wow... If only that were the results of 2007 legislqtives.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 17, 2010, 09:08:45 AM
News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:

()

lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ? ;)

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

Wow... If only that were the results of 2007 legislqtives.

It's only the first round, and with the left's division, it doesn't mean much of anything. You'll see a much, much bleaker image for the UMP on Sunday. Much bleaker.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 17, 2010, 09:43:03 AM
What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.

- Laurent Hénart is quite well-known now. Maybe there can have been a Mosellan opposition against this Rossinot's protégé.
Longuet: I really don't think so.
But Gandrange, sure !

But the biggest explanation is that, apart from a good result for the FN AND a good result for the MNR (3%), there was a DLR list unofficially supported by Christian Poncelet and which was above 2%.
And, of course, an AEI list with 2.5%.

Lorraine is indeed probably the biggest failure for the UMP, though it is down now for some time in Meuse. Moselle is the most worrying, of course...

- Vendée, Marne, even Aube, aren't very good either...

- Oh and don't forget favourite son Chassaigne of course ! ;)

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one ;D

What is amazing is that the 2 most "coherent" and "stable" maps (in relative terms) are those of the PS and... the FN !
No surprise in this as they are the winners of the poll, but still, that's very clear (even EE has a bit troubled map).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2010, 10:48:32 AM
News: there is finally no deal between FG and PS in Limousin, so a three-way there. No deal either in Picardie between FG (non-Gremetz, 5% or so) and the PS. And of course, l'exception bretonne for the PS-EE deal.

A new map, results by constituency:

()

lol at Marleix's base in Cantal. lol also at NDA's base in Yerres. Favourite son patterns to the max. The results around Saumur and Chateau-Gontier (the UMP deputy, Favennec, was on the UMP list, though) for the UMP are also interesting, as is Joyandet's strong showing in Pontarlier and Vesoul (where he's mayor) and also the UMP's strength in northern Bas-Rhin.

What is really amazing is how sh**t-poor the UMP did in Lorraine, it's quite shocking. Also, another thing to pick up is how poorly the UMP did out west. Auxiette and Beauvais are ahead of the UMP by the first round in their regions, showing a continuation of the recent turn to the left of the historically right-wing reactionary belt of the inner west.

As in 2004, the destruction of the UMP in working-class areas is shocking, though not unsurprising.

Lorraine, Midi and Bretagne are the 3 regions where the UMP did not win any constituency.

Do you know how many constituencies were won by each party ? ;)

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

Wow... If only that were the results of 2007 legislqtives.

It's only the first round, and with the left's division, it doesn't mean much of anything. You'll see a much, much bleaker image for the UMP on Sunday. Much bleaker.

Indeed, since 367 seats is already an epic score for the PS, I can't immagine what the second round will give us... :D

But by the way... How comes a so big majority with only 2 points more ? ???


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 17, 2010, 10:55:42 AM
Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2010, 10:59:36 AM
Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 17, 2010, 11:05:07 AM
Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2010, 11:19:59 AM
Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

Indeed, winning 367 constituencies against 191 when you have only a 2-points edge seems weird to me. Such result wouldn't have surprised me in the Second Round, because indeed the PS's majority will be far higher.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 17, 2010, 11:24:08 AM
Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

Indeed, winning 367 constituencies against 191 when you have only a 2-points edge seems weird to me. Such result wouldn't have surprised me in the Second Round, because indeed the PS's majority will be far higher.

Such are the wonders of FPTP. The PQ won 76 seats to the Liberals' 48 in Quebec 1998 despite losing the popular vote 43-44. FPTP amplifies everything, making a small lead in the popular vote a sizable majority.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 17, 2010, 11:26:12 AM
The PS cleaned up in the rural west and south - and most of the old industrial areas - which probably explains that. Also... concentration of support.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: KuntaKinte on March 17, 2010, 11:43:37 AM

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

No FN anywhere? Surprising to me.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 17, 2010, 11:48:27 AM
Be careful, Antonio, it's just a FPTP map.

Precisely : the PS will do even better in the second round.

Oh no, I just wanted to answer your question on "a so big majority with onyl 2 points more".

Indeed, winning 367 constituencies against 191 when you have only a 2-points edge seems weird to me. Such result wouldn't have surprised me in the Second Round, because indeed the PS's majority will be far higher.

Such are the wonders of FPTP. The PQ won 76 seats to the Liberals' 48 in Quebec 1998 despite losing the popular vote 43-44. FPTP amplifies everything, making a small lead in the popular vote a sizable majority.

Yeah, that's weird.
It's definitely the worst, and most retarded voting system ever. And they plan to introduce it for next local elections... ::)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 17, 2010, 11:52:37 AM

Their vote is regionally concentrated but is not especially concentrated within regions (I'm using 'region' in a totally non-official sense of the word) with a few important hot spots. Le Pen led in a load of constituencies in 2002 but that was only because of massive fragmentation of the Left vote.

Actually, I think that's the usual pattern for far-right parties in 'Western' Europe these days.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 17, 2010, 12:50:23 PM

including DOMs

PS-DVG-Giacobbi 367
UMP 191
FG 4
PPM-Letchimy 3
Regionalist 2 (1 Femu a Corsica, 1 MIM)
PCR 2
DLR 1

No FN anywhere? Surprising to me.

Their support out east was generally quite uniform, and their only major concentrations are in Pas-de-Calais 14 (Henin-Beaumont), which they narrowly lost, and in some other constituencies in PACA. It's not concentrated enough.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 17, 2010, 06:19:57 PM
What happened to UMP in Lorraine? UMP is pretty good there usually, if I remember well.

It's hard to say, really. A mix of these things probably:

1. Good but little-known candidate with little base (he isn't mayor, deputy only since 2002)
2. Gandrange is here, and it has been shown it has hurt the UMP throughout the region
3. Gérard Longuet's racist statements days before the vote (Longuet was president until 2004 and top-candidate in the Meuse)
4. Popular PS incumbent (I'm not sure, just a guess)
5. FN at 14.87%

As for Orne, Beauvais was mayor of Argentan, which is in the constituency where he broke 40%.

- Laurent Hénart is quite well-known now. Maybe there can have been a Mosellan opposition against this Rossinot's protégé.
Longuet: I really don't think so.
But Gandrange, sure !

But the biggest explanation is that, apart from a good result for the FN AND a good result for the MNR (3%), there was a DLR list unofficially supported by Christian Poncelet and which was above 2%.
And, of course, an AEI list with 2.5%.

Lorraine is indeed probably the biggest failure for the UMP, though it is down now for some time in Meuse. Moselle is the most worrying, of course...

- Vendée, Marne, even Aube, aren't very good either...

- Oh and don't forget favourite son Chassaigne of course ! ;) And Malvy and Warsmann !

-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one ;D

What is amazing is that the 2 most "coherent" and "stable" maps (in relative terms) are those of the PS and... the FN !
No surprise in this as they are the winners of the poll, but still, that's very clear (even EE has a bit troubled map).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 17, 2010, 06:53:03 PM
A map of the FN vote inside the 3 major cities:

()

Interesting stuff going on with the very wealthy also voting for the FN in high numbers (compared to the city average)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 17, 2010, 07:13:32 PM
Polls

Ifop in Poitou-Charentes
PS 63%
UMP 37%

OpinionWay in Alsace
PS 43.5%
UMP 43.5%
FN 13%

Ifop in Aquitaine
PS 59%
UMP 29%
MoDem 12%

CSA in Alsace
UMP 44%
PS 43%
FN 13%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Kevinstat on March 17, 2010, 07:38:22 PM
An early start to the thread...

Regional elections for the regional legislatures of 26 "regions" (22 in France in addition to Martinique, Guadeloupe, Reunion, Guyane) are being held in March 2010 (probably the 21st and 28th, as in 2004), six years after the 2004 elections, a nightmare for the right.

The current electoral system was adopted in 2003 (the same time as the Euros electoral reform) to ensure permanent, stable majority administrations in all regions. The system used is a two-round system, with 10% of votes cast (suffrages exprimés, as opposed to registered voters, or inscrits, used in legislative elections) as a threshold for a spot in the runoff. However, if a list gets over 5% of votes cast, it can "merge" with a qualified list, meaning that the defeated list get spots on the list it merged with. For seats, there is a 5% threshold in the runoff. The winning list in the runoff automatically gets a fourth of the seats as a majority bonus, and the remaining seats are attributed proportionally, first on a region-wide basis and then divided up by 'section' (departments) based on the votes in each 'section'.

...all of this is true for all regions... except Corse - where the threshold for the runoff is 5%.

Quote
Simulation:

In Region X (52 seats) the first round is as follows:

PS 35%
UMP 20%
PCF 11%
FN 10%
UDF 8%
Greens 8%
CPNT 4%
MEI 4%

PS, UMP, PCF, FN are qualified for the runoff. UDF and Greens can merge if they wish.

PCF drops out and merges with the PS, as do the Greens. UDF merges with the UMP.

Runoff:

PS 47%
UMP 30%
FN 23%

PS gets 13 seats automatically. 39 seats are distributed: PS 18, UMP 12, FN 9.

PS 31 seats (59.62%)
UMP 12 seats (23.08%)
FN 9 seats (17.31%)

In that example, could the Greens and the UDF have merged with each other?  They got over 10% of the vote between them.  I know they wouldn't, but I'm not sure if they could.

I imagine any lists getting more than 5% of the vote in the first round (where no party has gotten a majority, in which case I know there is no runoff), can merge in the runoff in Corsica.  Is the qualifying threshold in the non-metropolitans the same as on the mainland?  Or is it the same as Corsica?  Or is it something different?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Verily on March 17, 2010, 07:39:11 PM
A map of the FN vote inside the 3 major cities:

()

Interesting stuff going on with the very wealthy also voting for the FN in high numbers (compared to the city average)

Not in Marseille, though, right? The wealthy areas are along the coast south of the city as I recall, in the 8th arrondissement, one of the weaker FN areas.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 17, 2010, 09:01:42 PM
The way the FN vote dances around never ceases to amaze... Paris is especially striking, but even Marseille is not what we've gotten used to...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 17, 2010, 10:07:40 PM
In that example, could the Greens and the UDF have merged with each other?  They got over 10% of the vote between them.  I know they wouldn't, but I'm not sure if they could.

No. They can each merge with a list over 10%, but not with each other.

Quote
I imagine any lists getting more than 5% of the vote in the first round (where no party has gotten a majority, in which case I know there is no runoff), can merge in the runoff in Corsica.  Is the qualifying threshold in the non-metropolitans the same as on the mainland?  Or is it the same as Corsica?  Or is it something different?

The new threshold in Corsica was 7% for runoff, 5% to merge (instead of 5% and no threshold respectively in 2004); plus a larger majority bonus (9 instead of 3 seats). The Corsican system is applied only to Corsica, where the legislature is in fact a territorial assembly, not a regional council per se.

Not in Marseille, though, right? The wealthy areas are along the coast south of the city as I recall, in the 8th arrondissement, one of the weaker FN areas.

Not really, the FN still got a good 18% or so there, which is not good compared to the region but good compared to similar areas in Paris or Lyon. But the FN is really a disparate coalition of diverging, unstable, sometimes even conflicting protest elements; it's hard to do good cross-regional comparisons in elections like these.

I would personally guess that because Marseille is much more pied-noir, but also much more ethnically diverse and economically polarized (Paris has poor areas, but no real inner-city dirt poor areas like the old PCF areas of Marseille's 8th sector; Lyon is even wealthier and middle-class on a general outlook) that the FN vote is a bit more stagnant (though not entirely, this election shows it well. This time you had much stronger showings in UMP areas than in old PCF/PS areas) and is a bit more based on old insecurity/immigration issues than it seems to be in Paris and Lyon (the high vote in Paris-16 is probably not based much on traditional FN issues such as insecurity but an anti-UMP vote from the bourgeois).

unrelated, but amusing results in Longwy: PS 37.53, UMP 13.35, DLR 13.31, PCF 9.61, FN 9.22, GRN 6.18, MNR 2.73, NPA 2.55


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 18, 2010, 02:04:50 AM
Ifop in Poitou-Charentes

PS 63%
UMP 37%

That would be an 8% increase for Ségolène Royal compared with 2004, when she got 55% in round 2.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 18, 2010, 02:09:16 AM
There`s also a new poll for Languedoc-Roussillon:

Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 18, 2010, 06:02:28 AM
Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 18, 2010, 07:07:49 AM
BTW, bravo Fillon ! You certainly helped your party so much... ;D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 18, 2010, 08:02:36 AM
Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

Let's all say a big thanks to the PS, again! "Principles and values" in the first round, but no "principles and values" in the runoff. Let's all vote for a so-called leftist (Pierre Laval was also a member of the SFIO, so I suppose the PS would vote Laval in a race against him and Couderc...) because he's not a rightist, even if the leftist is a racist populist of the 1930s kind.

But Languedoc-Roussillon is an awful region. It's either racists, Pieds-Noirs, obnoxious wealthy retirees in disgusting 1960 cities or old SFIO rural folks. I'd rather live in Saint-Nazaire.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 18, 2010, 09:10:05 AM
lol

()

Notice how they don't actually shake hands. I suppose they still hate each other.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 18, 2010, 11:39:24 AM
-The MoDem map is a joke: Bayrou would say it looks like an RPF one ;D

Good one. :). He should really retire and write books, he would actually be far more useful.

So, I had spoken about a big abstention, with a turnout between 45 and 50, and I was right, and it was the only point on which I was right.

I thought EE and UMP could benefit of it, I was wrong.

I thought FN couldn't benefit of the rightist climate on identity and unsecurity, because a now quite old Le Pen and a mixed leadership with his daughter, I was wrong. Apparently the good ol' figure worked.

So, now, here how it could be, I'm thinking about the fact that abstention could be still bigger. First because of EE voters, almost all the lists have merged and I think a good part of EE voters are not fans of PS, like me, the fact that polls remain triumphalist for PS wouldn't push them more.

Second, FN voters, if we assume a significant part of them were just to say 'F**k', then, they said 'F**k', done, not sure why these ones would mobilize themselves a second time. If we assume there is an other part in them that want rightist stuffs for their region, then, if they are not totally stupid, they'll vote UMP.

Third, independent/leftist voters who could have leaned abstention but who voted PS in the 1st run, to protest UMP, with such still triumphalist polls, them too, now they expressed their discontent of UMP in the 1st run they could also stay home in the 2nd one, thinking it's won.

So............maybe still good surprises for UMP possible!! Haha!

Well, you never know. ;D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 18, 2010, 02:15:14 PM
I think that the death of the policeman (killed by eta) can give the win to UMP in Alsace where the gap between UMP and PS is very close (in polls). I think that UMP will win there.

Sunday, UMP will be crushed by the left, worst than in 2004. It's of course a vote against Sarkozy and his general policy (jobs, security,...) Lots of sarkozy voters in 2007 are not happy and feel betrayed. It will be difficult to regain them in 2012.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 18, 2010, 03:22:40 PM
My personal analysis of the FN vote: http://welections.wordpress.com/2010/03/18/the-fn-and-the-french-regionals/


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 18, 2010, 06:06:54 PM
http://www.france-politique.fr/doc/regionales2010/modem-alsace.pdf
http://www.france-politique.fr/doc/regionales2010/modem-normandie-haute.pdf

Notice the use of the old UDF logo on the tracts of the MoDem in Alsace and Haute-Normandie.

(I'm not sure if the Alsatian stuff is in German and French or Alsatian and French. I would suppose German)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: freek on March 18, 2010, 06:13:19 PM

(I'm not sure if the Alsatian stuff is in German and French or Alsatian and French. I would suppose German)

Yeah, it's in German. And the content is the same as the content in French.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Kevinstat on March 18, 2010, 06:41:43 PM
Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

Let's all say a big thanks to the PS, again! "Principles and values" in the first round, but no "principles and values" in the runoff. Let's all vote for a so-called leftist (Pierre Laval was also a member of the SFIO, so I suppose the PS would vote Laval in a race against him and Couderc...) because he's not a rightist, even if the leftist is a racist populist of the 1930s kind.

What would you have them do?  Abstain in the runoff?  Or vote for Couderc?  Or have the L-R PS leadership not endorse any list?

Did any of the three lists in Languedoc-Roussillon getting between 5% and 10% of the vote merge into Frêche's list?  (Or Couderc's?  I'm sure none of them merged into FN's.)  Both Frêche and Couderc were offering some seats on their list to at least one of EE, FG and PS right, although I guess Couderc's "grand coalition" offer wasn't taken seriously.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 18, 2010, 08:55:40 PM
Georges Frêche (IND): 58%
Raymond Couderc (UMP): 28%
France Jamet (FN): 14%

*facepalm*

Let's all say a big thanks to the PS, again! "Principles and values" in the first round, but no "principles and values" in the runoff. Let's all vote for a so-called leftist (Pierre Laval was also a member of the SFIO, so I suppose the PS would vote Laval in a race against him and Couderc...) because he's not a rightist, even if the leftist is a racist populist of the 1930s kind.

What would you have them do?  Abstain in the runoff?  Or vote for Couderc?  Or have the L-R PS leadership not endorse any list?

Did any of the three lists in Languedoc-Roussillon getting between 5% and 10% of the vote merge into Frêche's list?  (Or Couderc's?  I'm sure none of them merged into FN's.)  Both Frêche and Couderc were offering some seats on their list to at least one of EE, FG and PS right, although I guess Couderc's "grand coalition" offer wasn't taken seriously.

The PS didn't merge, since even they realize that would be explicitly supporting the racist. The PS has implicitly (or, in some cases, explicitly) called to vote for Frêche, only to "block the right/far-right" though obviously a rightist is preferable to a Pierre Laval left-populist. The PS' behaviour has been hypocritical and stupid.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on March 18, 2010, 11:35:10 PM
How many Germanophones are there in Alsace?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 19, 2010, 01:28:40 AM
I think that the death of the policeman (killed by eta) can give the win to UMP in Alsace where the gap between UMP and PS is very close (in polls). I think that UMP will win there.

I highly doubt that, considering how stupidly the UMP exploited this affair...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 19, 2010, 01:33:16 AM
OpinionWay in Ile-de-France:

()

http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/Barom%e8tre%20OpinionWay%20Fiducial%20-%20IDF.pdf


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 19, 2010, 01:39:47 AM
Réunion/Ipsos:

Didier Robert (UMP): 45%
Paul Vergès (Communists) : 34%
Michel Vergoz (PS): 21%

http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondage-Didier-Robert-en-tete-pour-la-premiere-fois_a15986.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 19, 2010, 01:42:34 AM
Réunion/Ipsos:

Didier Robert (UMP): 45%
Paul Vergès (Communists) : 34%
Michel Vergoz (PS): 21%

http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondage-Didier-Robert-en-tete-pour-la-premiere-fois_a15986.html

Oh no... :(


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 19, 2010, 04:38:44 AM
Quote from: Breizh link=topic=101703.msg2410126#msg2410126 date=1268881660

[quote author=Verily link=topic=101703.msg2409872#msg2409872 date=1268872751
Not in Marseille, though, right? The wealthy areas are along the coast south of the city as I recall, in the 8th arrondissement, one of the weaker FN areas.

Not really, the FN still got a good 18% or so there, which is not good compared to the region but good compared to similar areas in Paris or Lyon. But the FN is really a disparate coalition of diverging, unstable, sometimes even conflicting protest elements; it's hard to do good cross-regional comparisons in elections like these.

I would personally guess that because Marseille is much more pied-noir, but also much more ethnically diverse and economically polarized (Paris has poor areas, but no real inner-city dirt poor areas like the old PCF areas of Marseille's 8th sector; Lyon is even wealthier and middle-class on a general outlook) that the FN vote is a bit more stagnant (though not entirely, this election shows it well. This time you had much stronger showings in UMP areas than in old PCF/PS areas) and is a bit more based on old insecurity/immigration issues than it seems to be in Paris and Lyon (the high vote in Paris-16 is probably not based much on traditional FN issues such as insecurity but an anti-UMP vote from the bourgeois).

unrelated, but amusing results in Longwy: PS 37.53, UMP 13.35, DLR 13.31, PCF 9.61, FN 9.22, GRN 6.18, MNR 2.73, NPA 2.55
[/quote]

The Nr.1 of the DLR list is from Longwy if I remember well.

No big lessons from the FN result in Paris: its level there isn't really big and Paris has always voted differently.
Sure, the FN in Lyon and Marseille is high even in bourgeois areas, but there is still a hierarchy between popular and bourgeois areas.

On the contrary, I think the FN is pretty stable overall and it's amazing after 25 years.
But, of course, from time to time (and from place to place in one election), it's more the worker electorate that prevails or more the boutiquier electorate.
In this election, the UMP has probably lost on both electorates, partly towards the PS directly, partly towards the FN.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 19, 2010, 12:34:12 PM
People, in all the analysis and maps you do, don't forget to include the main point...abstention.

An analysis, and some maps that don't include this aspect are not worth it to describe the political situation in France and in each corner of France. In that sens, for maps for example, I think every data should be pondered with the abstention rate, and the percentages displayed, and colored, shouldn't be those of the official results, but these results pondered.

That's the most important political thing, more than the half of the country just doesn't vote.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 19, 2010, 03:02:02 PM
Réunion/Ipsos:

Didier Robert (UMP): 45%
Paul Vergès (Communists) : 34%
Michel Vergoz (PS): 21%

http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondage-Didier-Robert-en-tete-pour-la-premiere-fois_a15986.html

Oh no... :(

How is it bad? Paul Vergès is a corrupt, paternalistic cripple criminal.

People, in all the analysis and maps you do, don't forget to include the main point...abstention.

An analysis, and some maps that don't include this aspect are not worth it to describe the political situation in France and in each corner of France. In that sens, for maps for example, I think every data should be pondered with the abstention rate, and the percentages displayed, and colored, shouldn't be those of the official results, but these results pondered.

That's the most important political thing, more than the half of the country just doesn't vote.

You're welcome to make your own maps, you know. Not everybody has time to make maps based on complex mathematical calculations and complex colour schemes. Plus, maps of abstention, which I've done in the past, don't tell us anything new. It's basically the same people who don't vote and so forth. No pattern is surprising, enlightening or even new. It's not like it's surprising that working-class voters, unemployed voters, immigrants, low-income voters in poor suburbs and young voters are more likely to abstain. There's nothing new in that. Neither is the fact, really, that more right-wing voters abstained in 2010 than left-wing voters.

Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 19, 2010, 03:22:29 PM
You're welcome to make your own maps, you know. Not everybody has time to make maps based on complex mathematical calculations and complex colour schemes. Plus, maps of abstention, which I've done in the past, don't tell us anything new. It's basically the same people who don't vote and so forth. No pattern is surprising, enlightening or even new.

Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

.k .k. I wasn't giving orders, it's just that to have a good photos of politics in population that is to be done, especially when the majority of the population doesn't vote. For example, it would also gives some relativity to votes to the extremes, like it's not 20% of an area which is FN, but 20% of the 40% of voters, which is different.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 19, 2010, 03:40:36 PM
You're welcome to make your own maps, you know. Not everybody has time to make maps based on complex mathematical calculations and complex colour schemes. Plus, maps of abstention, which I've done in the past, don't tell us anything new. It's basically the same people who don't vote and so forth. No pattern is surprising, enlightening or even new.

Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

.k .k. I wasn't giving orders, it's just that to have a good photos of politics in population that is to be done, especially when the majority of the population doesn't vote. For example, it would also gives some relativity to votes to the extremes, like it's not 20% of an area which is FN, but 20% of the 40% of voters, which is different.

I already posted this link in this thread, but content yourself here with abstention stats: http://www.geoclip.fr/fr/


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2010, 01:08:29 AM
Réunion/Ipsos:

Didier Robert (UMP): 45%
Paul Vergès (Communists) : 34%
Michel Vergoz (PS): 21%

http://www.zinfos974.com/Sondage-Didier-Robert-en-tete-pour-la-premiere-fois_a15986.html

Oh no... :(

How is it bad? Paul Vergès is a corrupt, paternalistic cripple criminal.

Oh well... had no idea of that. I was just disappointed to see the right taking two overseas regions from the left. Obviously, if the left-wing candidate is as you described him, then I've no reason to be saddened by the result of this poll (obviously all depends to the UMP candidate).


Quote
People, in all the analysis and maps you do, don't forget to include the main point...abstention.

An analysis, and some maps that don't include this aspect are not worth it to describe the political situation in France and in each corner of France. In that sens, for maps for example, I think every data should be pondered with the abstention rate, and the percentages displayed, and colored, shouldn't be those of the official results, but these results pondered.

That's the most important political thing, more than the half of the country just doesn't vote.

You're welcome to make your own maps, you know. Not everybody has time to make maps based on complex mathematical calculations and complex colour schemes. Plus, maps of abstention, which I've done in the past, don't tell us anything new. It's basically the same people who don't vote and so forth. No pattern is surprising, enlightening or even new. It's not like it's surprising that working-class voters, unemployed voters, immigrants, low-income voters in poor suburbs and young voters are more likely to abstain. There's nothing new in that. Neither is the fact, really, that more right-wing voters abstained in 2010 than left-wing voters.

Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

I think you misunderstood what benwah meant. He was just saying that he would like to see what would give us a map in percentage of registered voters instead of expressed votes. Well, of course it's more complicated to do, but admit it's more representative. For example, should a region where the PS got 40% of votes with a 60% abstention really be in a darker shade than a region where it got 35% with a 30% abstention ?
Obviously you aren't forced to do them, and it takes obviously a bit more time. ;) Maybe I could do them for second round.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 20, 2010, 08:06:05 AM
I understood that. Read what I wrote:

Quote
Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

And nobody calculates stuff based on inscrits anymore.

Now, a map of turnout would be easier to do and tell the same story in a simpler way.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2010, 08:47:06 AM
I understood that. Read what I wrote:

Quote
Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

And nobody calculates stuff based on inscrits anymore.

Now, a map of turnout would be easier to do and tell the same story in a simpler way.

But you have to admit that it makes some sense, as I wanted to point out with my example.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 20, 2010, 08:53:05 AM
I understood that. Read what I wrote:

Quote
Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

And nobody calculates stuff based on inscrits anymore.

Now, a map of turnout would be easier to do and tell the same story in a simpler way.

But you have to admit that it makes some sense, as I wanted to point out with my example.

Yes, it does. But a simple map of turnout would be much easier and tell the same story.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 20, 2010, 10:08:44 AM
I understood that. Read what I wrote:

Quote
Furthermore, a map calculated on inscrits and not exprimes, takes much longer and tells us exactly the same on a different scale of numbers. And it's more confusing.

And nobody calculates stuff based on inscrits anymore.

Now, a map of turnout would be easier to do and tell the same story in a simpler way.

But you have to admit that it makes some sense, as I wanted to point out with my example.

Yes, it does. But a simple map of turnout would be much easier and tell the same story.

Well, a map of PS's percentages among registered voters has the advantage of showing both the effect of the abstention and the PS vote. ;)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 20, 2010, 02:05:24 PM
Where can I find the results from individual cities?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 20, 2010, 02:22:52 PM
Where can I find the results from individual cities?

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/

Don't click on the actual map, click on the region or the departmental numbers below the map.

http://www.geoclip.fr/danseuse/carto.php?lang=fr

Interactive map of all French communes and cantons. Results are under the 'societe' tab, in 'regionales 2010 - 1er tour', and then choose an 'indicator' such as leading party, % vote for a specific party.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 20, 2010, 03:03:34 PM
Where can I find the results from individual cities?

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/

Don't click on the actual map, click on the region or the departmental numbers below the map.

http://www.geoclip.fr/danseuse/carto.php?lang=fr

Interactive map of all French communes and cantons. Results are under the 'societe' tab, in 'regionales 2010 - 1er tour', and then choose an 'indicator' such as leading party, % vote for a specific party.



Thanks :)

I wanted to see the result of the partner-city of my town in France and there was the FN the strongest Party :(


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 20, 2010, 03:30:03 PM
Where can I find the results from individual cities?

http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/

Don't click on the actual map, click on the region or the departmental numbers below the map.

http://www.geoclip.fr/danseuse/carto.php?lang=fr

Interactive map of all French communes and cantons. Results are under the 'societe' tab, in 'regionales 2010 - 1er tour', and then choose an 'indicator' such as leading party, % vote for a specific party.



Thanks :)

I wanted to see the result of the partner-city of my town in France and there was the FN the strongest Party :(

Which city is it?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 20, 2010, 03:37:09 PM
It's a small town near Lyon, called Pusignan


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 20, 2010, 04:03:11 PM
It's a small town near Lyon, called Pusignan


Results make sense. Lower middle-class area, old industry and in an area where immigration/security themes are big. Perfect example of a strongly right-wing area with small shopkeepers, low unemployment; a big category which switched to the FN this year (and it seems similar to areas which would have voted Nazi in Germany in 1930 if it was Protestant...)

This used to be rather leftie, fwiw, but the UMP's campaigns on security in 2000 through 2007 have sealed the fate of the left here and Pusignan's constituency actually swung to the UMP in 2007. It's not a place I'd like to live in.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 20, 2010, 08:15:48 PM
Results within cities:

Lyon, by canton: http://www.elections.lyon.fr/scrutin/resultats.php?ONGLET=resultats&TYPECARTE=cantons&SCRUTIN=31&TOUR=1&DECOUPAGE=28&CANTON=&TYPE=4
Rennes, by canton and voting booth: http://www.elections.rennes.fr/index.php?id=84
Nice, for a lot of stuff: http://usagers.ville-nice.fr/webelecv2/accueil.aspx
Grenoble, by voting booth: http://www.grenoble.fr/regionales2010/carte1.html (map)
Toulouse, by voting booth: http://elections.toulouse.fr/resultats_elect_reg.asp (if you know the poll number... lol)
Bordeaux, by canton: http://www.bordeaux.fr/ebx/portals/ebx.portal?_nfpb=true&_pageLabel=pgPresStand8&classofcontent=presentationStandard&id=49779
Le Havre, by canton :): http://elections.ville-lehavre.fr/2010/vote_regionales.asp?tour=1

Hopefully, I'll find more in the next few days


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 21, 2010, 01:40:08 AM
Do you also have the results of Reims ? It´s the partner city of Salzburg.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 03:27:24 AM
Damn, this geoclip is really awesome ! :D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 08:03:58 AM
'Heavy' early turnout:18.57% (16.55% in 2004, 16.07% last week)

Do you also have the results of Reims ? It´s the partner city of Salzburg.

http://www.ville-reims.fr/fr/actualites/en-detail/index.html?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=3768&tx_ttnews[backPid]=1121&cHash=15cbea1c28



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 11:41:05 AM
Turnout will be superior to the first round, unsurprisingly: 43.47% (39.29% last Sunday but 51.24% in 2004). Ifop predicts 47.5% abstention, +6 on last week.

The Ministry is tweeting turnout levels by region: http://twitter.com/Place_Beauvau


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 21, 2010, 11:56:29 AM
When are the polls closing and do we get some immediate projections or exit polls from the regions ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 21, 2010, 12:04:23 PM
Seems like this Didier Robert guy from the UMP has won in Réunion with 45% of the vote.

Paul Vergès, the Communist incumbent, is second with 37% and Michel Vergoz from the PS has 16%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 12:20:47 PM
A voté. 2 votes (procuration), 2 Malvy.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 12:22:31 PM
When are the polls closing and do we get some immediate projections or exit polls from the regions ?

20:00, as always. I suppose TNS-Sofres, OpinionWay will have some stuff.

TNS-Sofres: http://www.tns-sofres.com/regionales2010/ (20:00 - national and PACA, Poitou-Charentes, Alsace, Rhône-Alpes, Languedoc-Roussillon; 21:00 - IDF)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 21, 2010, 01:06:51 PM
Just saw that the TV5 channel, which I have on my cable TV, brings some live coverage from 7.45-9pm.

Probably won´t understand much but will watch it anyway.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hans-im-Glück on March 21, 2010, 01:12:49 PM
Just saw that the TV5 channel, which I have on my cable TV, brings some live coverage from 7.45-9pm.

Probably won´t understand much but will watch it anyway.



You can look the live coverage in English on France24.com (http://www.france24.com/en/)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 01:18:25 PM
Just saw that the TV5 channel, which I have on my cable TV, brings some live coverage from 7.45-9pm.

Probably won´t understand much but will watch it anyway.

There is France24 in English too, but seems they don't make a special TV coverage, or I haven't found it:

http://www.france24.com/en/aef_player_popup/france24_player#

France2, one of the 2 big, also broadcast it on the net:

http://info.france2.fr/elections/regionales-2010/videos/?idcategorie=mea2&type=direct


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 01:26:54 PM
The turnout projection is now 51%. It remains extremely low, but significantly higher than for last round. This is likely to favor the right, but I doubt it will play a determinating role.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 01:36:49 PM
The turnout projection is now 51%. It remains extremely low, but significantly higher than for last round. This is likely to favor the right, but I doubt it will play a determinating role.

Polling has shown that voters who abstained last week but are voting today still favour the left. The type of voters who vote today but who didn't vote last week are those with little interest in politics, but who just vote in the runoff because it effectively decides everything.

The right needs to hope turnout is heavier in its strongholds than last time, and it seems unlikely.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 01:38:06 PM
France2, one of the 2 big, also broadcast it on the net:

http://info.france2.fr/elections/regionales-2010/videos/?idcategorie=mea2&type=direct

lol, strike of a part of the crew, then cheap 'show'. France! Fidel to the reputation. :P

Maybe I'll swtich to TF1 if that's too cheap.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 01:53:22 PM
La gauche l'emporte largement, le FN se maintient

Mots clés : FRANCE

Par Jim Jarrassé
21/03/2010 | Mise à jour : 19:46
Selon les dernières estimations, la gauche récolte 52,2% des voix contre 37,1% pour la droite. Avec 9,7% des suffrages, le FN se maintient bien au second tour des régionales.
 
Les listes de gauche arrivent largement en tête au second tour des régionales. Selon les dernières estimations de l'institut de sondage OpinionWay, elles récoltent 52,2% des suffrages. C'est 15 points de plus que la droite qui obtient 37,1% des voix. Un score très légèrement supérieur aux 36% annoncés par les derniers sondages. Le parti présidentiel a pu profiter du léger regain de participation : évaluée à 49,5%, le taux d'abstention s'affiche en baisse de quatre points par rapport au premier tour.

Mais la défaite reste sévère pour la majorité, qui obtient environ le même score qu'en 2004 (36,9%). Les listes de gauche, elles, progressent encore, gagnant plus de 2 points par rapport au dernier scrutin régional (49,9%).

Belle opération enfin pour le Front national. Le parti de Jean-Marie Le Pen, qui avait crée la surprise au premier tour en récoltant 11,7% des voix, montre qu'il est de retour dans le paysage politique avec un score de 9,7%. En Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Jean-Marie Le Pen rafle ainsi près d'un quart des suffrages. Idem dans le Nord-Pas-de-Calais, où Marine Le Pen obtient un score de près de 23%.

Dans les régions, l'hégémonie de la gauche se confirme. Ségolène Royal l'emporte en Poitou-Charentes avec 61% des suffrages contre environ 39% pour le secrétaire d'Etat aux Transports Dominique Bussereau. La gauche l'emporte aussi très largement en Ile-de-France, où Jean-Pau Huchon sort vainqueur de ce scrutin avec 62% des suffrages contre 38% pour son adversaire de droite Valérie Pécresse.

Seule ombre au tableau de la gauche : l'Alsace, où la droite a largement dominé ce premier tour. Donné ex-æquo jusqu'au dernier moment avec son adversaire de la gauche Jacques Bigot, l'UMP Philippe Richert l'emporte avec 47% des voix.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 01:56:18 PM
National runoff numbers don't mean squat, even less than the first round numbers. I don't know when people and the media will understand that.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 01:58:41 PM
JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:01:32 PM
JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

No, 22.5% for Le Pen. Though 19.5% for the FN in LR... what a crappy sh**t-ass backwards region.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:02:28 PM
JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

Le Pen given at 22,5, on Sofres.

Royal 61%, she surely hopes to be the best PS score tonight.

Haven't heard NPdC.

Frêche owned it. 53%


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 02:02:50 PM
JM Le Pen at 25 % and Marine at 23 %

Corsica is toss up and alsace is for UMP

No, 22.5% for Le Pen. Though 19.5% for the FN in LR... what a crappy sh**t-ass backwards region.

wow a big surprise...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:03:12 PM
Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie (Jacques Bigot)   39,5 %
UMP (Philippe Richert)   46 %
Front National (Patrick Binder)   14,5 %

Divers gauche (Georges Frêche)   53,5 %
UMP (Raymond Couderc)   27 %
Front National (France Jamet)   19,5 %

Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie / Front de gauche (Michel Vauzelle)   44 %
UMP (Thierry Mariani)   33,5 %
Front National (Jean-Marie Le Pen)   22,5 %

Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie (Ségolène Royal)   61 %
UMP (Dominique Bussereau)   39 %

Parti Socialiste / Europe Écologie / Front de gauche (Jean-Jacques Queyranne)   51 %
UMP (Françoise Grossetête)   34 %
Front National (Bruno Gollnish)   15 %

UMP gains Reunion on official results.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 02:03:59 PM
shame on gollnish. Not so bad for pecresse...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 21, 2010, 02:04:40 PM

52% for Percheron according to Opinionway.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:05:36 PM

20% would not be bad, given the awful candidate she is.


Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:06:32 PM
Bretagne:

PS 49.9
UMP 32.2
GRN 17.9

PDL:

PS-Breton haters 57.1 (ugh)
UMP 42.8

NPDC:

PS 52
UMP 26
FN 22

IDF:

PS 55
UMP 45 (not bad)



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 02:07:01 PM
Le figaro and TF1 give different results... with the same pollster ! (OW)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:07:18 PM
Oh, , brace. Royal speaks.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 21, 2010, 02:07:45 PM


Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

No no no, Letard is at 25% and Marine at 22% (IIRC).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Math on March 21, 2010, 02:08:30 PM

So I guess Aubry is trying to do the same.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:09:29 PM
Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:10:03 PM
Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Yeah, she's sober and sane. Mark the date, 'cause it's rare.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:10:37 PM


Yes, but I really wait to see whether FN will be the 1st right party.

No no no, Letard is at 25% and Marine at 22% (IIRC).

It remains huge for FN, but good they are not second, symbolically would have been awful.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:12:35 PM
Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Yeah, she's sober and sane. Mark the date, 'cause it's rare.

Well, in fact she found back her 'Madone style', the stuff why I think she remains a very serious option.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:13:25 PM
The Greenies can stop acting as if they're something new now, please.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 02:13:31 PM
Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Royal speech was not on tf1 and france 2...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:14:29 PM
Cohn Bendit, playing her game now, currently speaking and pleading for a new big leftist force, which is good for Royal and not for Aubry's camp, which seems to still be  'PS first'.

Royal first to speak. Very good speech. Wow. Contrast with last week.

Royal speech was not on tf1 and france 2...

I'm on France2, it was.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 21, 2010, 02:14:57 PM
Divers gauche (Georges Frêche)   53,5 %
UMP (Raymond Couderc)   27 %
Front National (France Jamet)   19,5 %

So, yeah.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:15:13 PM
résultats: Corse : La gauche a obtenu 36,70% des voix devant l'UMP (27,50%) et les deux listes nationalistes (25,90% et 9,90%), selon une estimation diffusée par France Bleu Frequenza Mora, France 3 Corse et l'institut MediaTerra.

The UMP found some votes, and the left didn't rally all its theoretical first-round supporters. Unsurprising. Nice for Simeoni, btw, 35.8% for nationalists overall.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:15:36 PM
Divers gauche (Georges Frêche)   53,5 %
UMP (Raymond Couderc)   27 %
Front National (France Jamet)   19,5 %

So, yeah.

Awful region, is it not? Probably the worst.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:16:18 PM
Frêche speaking on TF1. Bashing PS.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:16:59 PM
Frêche speaking on TF1. Bashing PS.

What crap is he saying, basically? Old cripple sh**t, hopefully gets run over by a truck soon.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:18:10 PM
Frêche speaking on TF1. Bashing PS.

What crap is he saying, basically? Old cripple sh**t, hopefully gets run over by a truck soon.

Bashing PS, and FG. Calling for a new way to make populism politics...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:19:39 PM
TF1:

Bertrand still pushing on abstention (well, basically he's right, but...), saying 'yay, 3 regions'.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:22:34 PM
TF1:

Bertrand still pushing on abstention (well, basically he's right, but...), saying 'yay, 3 regions'.

Apparently they know they win Guyane.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:25:42 PM
TF1:

Bertrand still pushing on abstention (well, basically he's right, but...), saying 'yay, 3 regions'.

Apparently they know they win Guyane.

He said that just after a confirmation of Réunion, then with Alsace and maybe Guyane yes, dunno.

Fillon speaking, admitting defeat, making a general speech blablabla...

Marine Le Pen on TF1 now.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:27:26 PM
Hopefully the UMP can win Champagne-Ardenne, since Warsmann is a good guy. Joyandet is a cheat and a liar and can go to hell.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:32:47 PM
Boring speech of Aubry, good ol' boring PS tone...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:34:02 PM
Le Pen will speak soon, and Freche will be on FR2.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:35:02 PM
Lolzere: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/091/048/048.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 02:35:29 PM
polls for second turn were very horrible (alsace, languedoc,...)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:38:10 PM
Le Pen on the media rant again against differences in estimates between FR2 and TF1.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:39:41 PM
Le Pen on the media rant again against differences in estimates between FR2 and TF1.

Yeah, he's yelling at Pujadas. Thank God it's probably the old geezer's last election. Maybe he and Freche can get run over by a truck.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:40:32 PM
Le Pen on the media rant again against differences in estimates between FR2 and TF1.

Yeah, he's yelling at Pujadas. Thank God it's probably the old geezer's last election. Maybe he and Freche can get run over by a truck.

and now on the 1940s line of socialo-communists and UMPS.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:41:42 PM
Le Pen on the media rant again against differences in estimates between FR2 and TF1.

yah, yah, lol.

Began on a soft blablabla, but now tougher then, though not that much offensive. Classical words.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:43:50 PM
Haha, Frêche burring UMP and PS, good for Royal.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 21, 2010, 02:44:11 PM
Malvy got 70.07% in Hautes-Pyrénées. Impressive, even there.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:45:52 PM
Malvy got 70.07% in Hautes-Pyrénées. Impressive, even there.

Malvy final score will be interesting, to see whether one could make more than Royal.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:46:24 PM
Franche-Comte:

PS 46.1
UMP 39.1
FN 13.8


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:47:20 PM
Apparently Idf is 57-43 for TNS-Sofres, and PDL has been revised to 54.9-45.1.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:48:37 PM
Aquitaine:

PS 54.8
UMP 28.5
MODEM 16.7 (good for them)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:49:19 PM
Hold on, Morin speaks.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Harry Hayfield on March 21, 2010, 02:49:47 PM
Le Pen on the media rant again against differences in estimates between FR2 and TF1.

Yeah, he's yelling at Pujadas. Thank God it's probably the old geezer's last election. Maybe he and Freche can get run over by a truck.

Do you think we have just seen the dry run for Paxman vs Griffin in May in the UK?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:50:23 PM
The Ministry's drop down displays department but once I click on them, they don't have runoff results. Idiots.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:53:25 PM
Yay! Melenchon!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 02:53:38 PM
54%... :D :D :D :D

But how comes Richert is leading by 10 points ? ???


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:54:49 PM

Yay! General Elections!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:55:25 PM
But how comes Richert is leading by 10 points ? ???

Probably heavier turnout. Meh, I don't really care. Fernique and the Greenies' gloating about OMG WE CAN WINZ THE POWERZ was disgusting.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 21, 2010, 02:55:49 PM
The Ministry's drop down displays department but once I click on them, they don't have runoff results. Idiots.

Oh, try a few times, it will work.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:56:03 PM
Champagne-Ardenne : Le président socialiste sortant Jean-Paul Bachy a été réélu à la tête de la région avec 42,9 % des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'intérieur. Il devance l'UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann, qui obtient 39,5 % des voix, et Bruno Subtil (Front national), à 17,6 %.

Also, 72.85% for Malvy in Ariege. Malvy will get the largest score.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 02:57:16 PM

Oh damn, Lassale.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 02:58:05 PM
Impressive results for the Left Front in Limousin: in Haute-Vienne, it has 21.47% against 12.67% in the first round... 16.18% in Creuse against 12.4% last week.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:03:16 PM
Even 60.66% for Malvy in Aveyron. Haha.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:03:47 PM
Châtel is good, the best to manage the defeat so far, a 'soft comprehensive tone' but that says that there isn't to be big changes nevertheless, while the PS tone that says that everything should be changed is empty.

No resigning for Fillon (as expected), soft minister changes expected, 'centrist' ones.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 21, 2010, 03:04:07 PM
A Hénin-Beaumont (Pas-de-Calais), Marine Le Pen recueille 44,23%, juste derrière el PS (45,82%). L'UMP 9,95%.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:05:20 PM
No resigning for Fillon (as expected), soft minister changes expected, 'centrist' ones.

I heard the name of Maurice Leroy (NC, Loir-et-Cher).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:06:14 PM
Limousin:

PS 47.95
UMP 32.95
FG 19.1


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 03:06:50 PM
Champagne-Ardenne : Le président socialiste sortant Jean-Paul Bachy a été réélu à la tête de la région avec 42,9 % des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'intérieur. Il devance l'UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann, qui obtient 39,5 % des voix, et Bruno Subtil (Front national), à 17,6 %.

Huh, so close ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:08:32 PM
59% for PS in Auvergne, wow.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:08:42 PM
Champagne-Ardenne : Le président socialiste sortant Jean-Paul Bachy a été réélu à la tête de la région avec 42,9 % des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'intérieur. Il devance l'UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann, qui obtient 39,5 % des voix, et Bruno Subtil (Front national), à 17,6 %.

Huh, so close ?

Look at the region, eh.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:09:23 PM

Not really 'wow'. Puy-de-Dome and Allier are on the left, as are parts of Cantal and Haute-Loire. Only Giscard could win it.

Good riddance to Mr. Gerrymander.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:12:02 PM
Oh please, if Hamon could resign.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 21, 2010, 03:12:21 PM
Champagne-Ardenne : Le président socialiste sortant Jean-Paul Bachy a été réélu à la tête de la région avec 42,9 % des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'intérieur. Il devance l'UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann, qui obtient 39,5 % des voix, et Bruno Subtil (Front national), à 17,6 %.

Huh, so close ?

Look at the region, eh.

Champagne-Ardenne was the best chance of gain for the UMP when there was still some hope.
Pretty logical. And a good candidate.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 03:14:03 PM
Champagne-Ardenne : Le président socialiste sortant Jean-Paul Bachy a été réélu à la tête de la région avec 42,9 % des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'intérieur. Il devance l'UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann, qui obtient 39,5 % des voix, et Bruno Subtil (Front national), à 17,6 %.

Huh, so close ?

Look at the region, eh.

The breakdown at the 1st round was 48% for the left and 32% for the right.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:14:54 PM
Oh please, if Hamon could resign.

Yeah, he's full of crap.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:15:42 PM
Champagne-Ardenne : Le président socialiste sortant Jean-Paul Bachy a été réélu à la tête de la région avec 42,9 % des voix, selon des résultats partiels du ministère de l'intérieur. Il devance l'UMP Jean-Luc Warsmann, qui obtient 39,5 % des voix, et Bruno Subtil (Front national), à 17,6 %.

Huh, so close ?

Look at the region, eh.

The breakdown at the 1st round was 48% for the left and 32% for the right.

Greenies aren't too fond of Bachy in this region. And also higher turnout, probably.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:17:02 PM
Fiesta in PS' center sounds weird. Doesn't suits with the general ambiance.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:18:08 PM
Only 55.74% for Bussereau in his stronghold (which is very, very rightie).

Fiesta in PS' center sounds weird. Doesn't suits with the general ambiance.

Young, pumped people behind a camera. Whaddya expect?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 21, 2010, 03:18:17 PM
- Now, will JM Le Pen be candidate again in 2012 ?

I hope so, this is the only way to see the FN down, because the old man will be even more insane than usual.

- A good speech for Royal, a good result for her, but what can she do with her diminishing troops ?

- Nothing can be said from what Hollande said and what strauss-kahniens said tonight....
To be seen....

- A good Fillon, but the UMP has no room to change now... The only way for Sarkozy will be to pray for big economic recovery (LOL) and to try to divide the PS.
But he has already used the trick so much that it's over. Now, he can only appoint DSK as prime minister in 2011 ;D...

- So, the big battle will be Aubry-DSK-Royal. I hope DSK will win... (Royal can't win)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:19:40 PM
Novelli is getting trounced, shockingly. Sarkozy's hugging-up with Novelli and his liberals will end quickly.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:19:50 PM

Fiesta in PS' center sounds weird. Doesn't suits with the general ambiance.

Young, pumped people behind a camera. Whaddya expect?

Yah, but contrasts very much with the general ambiance, sounds weird, that's not always the case.

Hehe, good question of Lucet to Hamon, 'you just speak about PS, what about your allies??'



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 03:20:06 PM
Well, now that I see this results, I feel somewhat disappointed. It could had been better (still, it's an epic landslide :)).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:20:56 PM
Well, now that I see this results, I feel somewhat disappointed. It could had been better (still, it's an epic landslide :)).

I just feel like nuking Languedoc-Roussillon.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:21:37 PM
Lorraine

PS 49.99 (haha)
UMP 31.55 (fail)
FN 18.45


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:22:31 PM
Bertrand seems to be somewhere between Mars and Saturn, for once I feel sympathy for him...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 03:24:09 PM
Bertrand seems to be somewhere between Mars and Saturn, for once I feel sympathy for him...

I heard him on TF1. Nothing new, stupid as usual.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:24:35 PM
Bertrand seems to be somewhere between Mars and Saturn, for once I feel sympathy for him...

Really? His soft "look at me, I'm nice and cute" stuff gets on my nerves.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:25:30 PM
Bertrand seems to be somewhere between Mars and Saturn, for once I feel sympathy for him...

I heard him on TF1. Nothing new, stupid as usual.

The more the night goes, the more... When he listened Duflot speaking he seemed totally lost.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:27:00 PM
Letard is second behind the PS in her stronghold of Valenciennes.

Duflot just made a "ahh" sound, sounding like some 17-year old. Cute.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:28:00 PM
Duflot just made a "ahh" sound, sounding like some 17-year old. Cute.

Yeah, she can be cute. ;D

And yeah, she sometimes sound like a lycéenne, she'll have to improve on that.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:28:05 PM
The UMP is trailing in all metro departments so far, even Aube. Will it win any in the end?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:29:18 PM
Duflot just made a "ahh" sound, sounding like some 17-year old. Cute.

Yeah, she can be cute. ;D

And yeah, she sometimes sound like a lycéenne, she'll have to improve on that.

Yeah, tonight, she definitely sounds like some lycéenne who's being ignored by all other adults. Cute, again, but she ought to grow up.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 21, 2010, 03:29:25 PM
Bertrand seems to be somewhere between Mars and Saturn, for once I feel sympathy for him...

I heard him on TF1. Nothing new, stupid as usual.

The more the night goes, the more... When he listened Duflot speaking he seemed totally lost.

Copé is now the first opponent of Sarkozy, but Fillon may be, after the defeat in 2012, the leader around whom the sarkozysts and some centrists will rally, especially if Copé is depicted as just another Sarkozy (whom he is, despite a bit less lunatic).

Fillon will have a card to play, especially if he isn't PM in 2011-12.

He has an interest to leave high.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 21, 2010, 03:29:52 PM
The UMP is trailing in all metro departments so far, even Aube. Will it win any in the end?

Cantal? An Alsace department?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:30:44 PM
Haute-Normandie

PS 55.1
UMP 30.7
FN 14.2

Too bad about Le Maire's defeat, he's a good enough and nice enough guy.

The UMP is trailing in all metro departments so far, even Aube. Will it win any in the end?

Cantal? An Alsace department?

Yeah, Cantal. I excluded Alsace since it's not really metro France anymore ;D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:31:57 PM
Basse-Normandie

PS 56.51
UMP 43.49


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:32:14 PM
Bertrand seems to be somewhere between Mars and Saturn, for once I feel sympathy for him...

I heard him on TF1. Nothing new, stupid as usual.

The more the night goes, the more... When he listened Duflot speaking he seemed totally lost.

Copé is now the first opponent of Sarkozy, but Fillon may be, after the defeat in 2012, the leader around whom the sarkozysts and some centrists will rally, especially if Copé is depicted as just another Sarkozy (whom he is, despite a bit less lunatic).

Fillon will have a card to play, especially if he isn't PM in 2011-12.

He has an interest to leave high.

He won't, you know it.

Duflot just made a "ahh" sound, sounding like some 17-year old. Cute.

Yeah, she can be cute. ;D

And yeah, she sometimes sound like a lycéenne, she'll have to improve on that.

Yeah, tonight, she definitely sounds like some lycéenne who's being ignored by all other adults. Cute, again, but she ought to grow up.

Like some lycéens, adults should listen to her, what she says can be relevant, and the fact to be ignored as well. ;D. Though she definitely has to improve too.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:33:38 PM
France3 now, a buzz on a back of Royal would be in the air, really waiting for Malvy results.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 21, 2010, 03:34:08 PM
The UMP is trailing in all metro departments so far, even Aube. Will it win any in the end?

Cantal? An Alsace department?

UMP even lost Vendée.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 03:34:13 PM
Duflot just made a "ahh" sound, sounding like some 17-year old. Cute.

Yeah, she can be cute. ;D

And yeah, she sometimes sound like a lycéenne, she'll have to improve on that.

Yeah, tonight, she definitely sounds like some lycéenne who's being ignored by all other adults. Cute, again, but she ought to grow up.

Yeah, all the times I've heard her (especially since most times it was on radio) I was astonished by her young girsl's voice. Weird.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:34:23 PM
Bourgogne

PS 52.4
UMP 33.54
FN 14.06

Centre

PS 49.22
UMP 36.66
FN 14.12

Oh, Jesus, Ayrault the sack of crap on FR3.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:35:25 PM
Oh, Jesus, Ayrault the sack of crap on FR3.

And Fredo.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:36:18 PM

Haha, was about to say the exact same thing, with an exclamation mark, and Morano!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:37:15 PM
Fun to see the UMP actually care about the overseas now, given Sarkozy-Penchard's record on that front. lol.

Time for Sarkozy to get some Reunionese or Guyanese minister.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 21, 2010, 03:40:57 PM
Fun to see the UMP actually care about the overseas now, given Sarkozy-Penchard's record on that front. lol.

Time for Sarkozy to get some Reunionese or Guyanese minister.

Yeah, I love Bertrand saying "YAY WE HAD 2 REGIONZ BEFORE AND 3 NOW !!1!1!" as if Réunionese and Guyanese politcs had something to do with Metropolitan...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:41:48 PM
apparently Carhaix didn't follow Troadec's endorsement of EE: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/053/029/029024.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:45:13 PM
Picardie:

PS 48.28
UMP 32.43
FN 19.3


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:45:38 PM
Funny how socialists don't succeed to make of this victory something happy, except somewhere in Paris where people enjoy to sing apparently.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:48:30 PM
Ah!...Regional France3.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 03:49:21 PM
Wow, by now Malvy is at about 67%. Toulouse not done though.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:49:29 PM
Simeoni (42.7%) ahead of Rocca Serra (38.2%) in Rocca Serra's Porto-Vecchio stronghold. Uber-lol.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 03:59:45 PM
Seats in Franche-Comte:

PS-GRN 27 (+1) >> 17 PS, 7 EE, 2 MRC, 1 DVG
UMP 12 (nc) >> 8 UMP, 2 NC, 1 DVD, 1 CPNT
FN 4 (-1)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 04:03:11 PM
i télé now, Woerth Cohn Bendit, others.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 21, 2010, 04:06:50 PM
UMP won Cantal! 51-49.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:07:24 PM

Gonna look weird on the map.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:08:44 PM
Oberstgruppenführer Besson is on I-tele.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 04:10:36 PM

Well, I'll just quote this. He persiste et signe though.



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:11:58 PM
Marleix wins Vichy. Hortefeux wants to run in the 2014 municipals here. (seriously, lol).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 04:13:29 PM
Hortefeux wants to run in the 2014 municipals here. (seriously, lol).

Yes, lol.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:14:24 PM
24.18% for Lassalle in the 64, not bad.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:15:31 PM
lol Didier Robert on i-tele. Time for the metro media to ask "who the FUCK are you?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 04:16:12 PM
24.18% for Lassalle in the 64, not bad.

Modem: Bayrou, Lassalle, Sarnez. Yeah! Presidentials!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 04:17:10 PM
lol Didier Robert on i-tele. Time for the metro media to ask "who the FUCK are you?

Good from i-télé though. That might be just remplissage but well, still, it's here.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:18:45 PM
lol Didier Robert on i-tele. Time for the metro media to ask "who the FUCK are you?

Good from i-télé though. That might be just remplissage but well, still, it's here.

Yeah, nice of them to pay attention to DOMs.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 21, 2010, 04:33:56 PM
27% for FN in Vaucluse.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:34:02 PM
Argentan loves native-son Beauvais: 76.75% lol.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:35:36 PM

Bompard's homesh**thole of Orange is quite divided: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/093/084/084087.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:43:47 PM
Bechu takes a drubbing in Angers: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/052/049/049007.html


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 04:45:30 PM
Villepin would announce a new political movement on Thursday!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:47:00 PM
UMP wins Var, standing now at 3 departments: Var, Haut-Rhin, Cantal (with Bas-Rhin quasi-certain and maybe Alpes-Maritimes. Yvelines and 92 as an outside chance).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:48:04 PM
67.8% for Malvy overall. Haha. Now we need to know which side he was on in the PS civil war circa 2008!


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 04:49:45 PM
67.8% for Malvy overall. Haha. Now we need to know which side he was on in the PS civil war circa 2008!

Final results? Bah, he doesn't seem to be a Royalist so far, that would rather be a DSK/Aubry support.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:51:27 PM
No majority in Corse. 24 seats for the left, 12 for the UMP, 11 for Femu a Corsica and 4 for Corsica Libera. 'Third round' on Thursday.

lolzio.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 04:54:36 PM
67.8% for Malvy overall. Haha. Now we need to know which side he was on in the PS civil war circa 2008!

Final results? Bah, he doesn't seem to be a Royalist so far, that would rather be a DSK/Aubry support.

Wikipedia says he supported Aubry's motion.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 21, 2010, 05:06:37 PM
67.8% for Malvy overall. Haha. Now we need to know which side he was on in the PS civil war circa 2008!

Final results? Bah, he doesn't seem to be a Royalist so far, that would rather be a DSK/Aubry support.

Malvy has always been a Fabiusian (old Mitterrandist).
But I don't think he needed to betray like Bartolone: he must still be a Fabiusian, i.e. Aubry or DSK in 2011 ;D, except that, ideologically, he's closer to Aubry.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 05:09:37 PM
Le président Malvy a fait applaudir à tout rompre les résultats massifs enregistrés dans de vieilles villes ouvrières: Decazeville (Aveyron) 80%, Carmaux (Tarn) 79,8%, Lannemezan (Hautes-Pyrénées) 76,6%, Lavelanet (Ariège) 72,6%..., sans compter sa ville de Figeac (Lot 74,4%). "Même Lourdes, traditionnellement plus proche de la Vierge Marie que de Jean Jaurès, a donné 57% à la gauche", a-t-il dit.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 21, 2010, 05:15:59 PM
In Aquitaine, the MoDem has widen his appeal.
Everywhere the FN has made it to the run-off, he has gained a better result, for the first time ever in a local election.

Now, how can we continue with only one party on the maisntream right ?
Split this, with a real rightist one, and a strong centre-right !

The stupidity is that the split will come with minor guys like Arthuis or Charrette going elsewhere, or with mad Villepin doing his own lil' thing...
Sigh... all this is doomed...

Borloo, Barnier, Juppé et alii in a new centre-right, quickly !


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 05:17:59 PM
11 seats for Hascoet in Bretagne, when Le Drian proposed 10 to him and he wanted 13-14. Still 4 seats for the stupid UDB.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 05:19:43 PM
Couderc has even narrowly lost his hometown of Béziers. Couderc isn't perfect, but in this region, he's a flipping saint.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 21, 2010, 05:26:10 PM
Huchon 1st in HdS, by about 51%.

...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 05:33:38 PM
Lyon bobos hate the UMP: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/082/069/069123AR01.html



Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 21, 2010, 05:36:33 PM
Not the slightest result in Paris, even in 1-2-3-4...

Elsewhere, Lorraine (Moselle OMG), Loiret, Vendée are really big disappointments


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 05:39:41 PM

Jesus Christ, look at Montaigu: http://elections.interieur.gouv.fr/052/085/085146.html

UMP wins Yvelines, haha.

Ugh at the FN top candidate in Lolzere: http://www.rfo.fr/elections-regionales-2010/resultats/2010/departement_48.html. He has my name and he looks like a pile of sh**t.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 21, 2010, 05:58:21 PM
UMP wins also Alpes-Maritimes.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 21, 2010, 06:08:33 PM

"wins"...

LOL at Montaigu...

Huchon might be at 45% in the 16th arrondissement... sigh...


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 06:14:07 PM
Richert (UMP) has won Waechter's hometown. Shows well how Richert won, because of good transfers from MEI-centrist green voters, plus probably some Alsace d'abord votes.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 06:18:29 PM
Huchon might be at 45% in the 16th arrondissement... sigh...

lol at rumours these days. "Only" 21.85% for Huchon in the 16th (Paris is in!)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 06:20:25 PM
...and a map:

()

(2004 map: http://i257.photobucket.com/albums/hh225/hashemite/frankreich/Regional2004-R2.png)

The polarization of Paris is always stunning, even when you're into French political demographics.

Just waiting for Guyane (I predict a fairly large UMP win) and Martinique (I figure Letchimy will win)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 21, 2010, 06:31:12 PM
FN seats:

Alsace - 5 (-3)
Aquitaine - 0 (-7)
Auvergne - 0 (nc)
Bourgogne - 6 (nc)
Breizh - 0 (nc)
Centre - 7 (-2)
Champagne - 6 (nc)
Corsica - 0 (nc)
Franche-Comté - 4 (-1)
Île-de-France - 0 (-15)
Languedoc-Roussillon - 10 (+2)
Limousin - 0 (nc)
Lorraine - 10 (+1)
Midi-Pyrénées - 0 (-8)
Nord-Pas-de-Calais: 18 (+2)
Basse-Normandie - 0 (-5)
Haute-Normandie - 6 (nc)
PDL - 0 (nc)
Picardie - 8 (nc)
PC - 0 (-3)
PACA - 21 (+3)
Rhône-Alpes - 17 (-1)

Too pressed on time to sum it all up.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Barnes on March 21, 2010, 10:06:23 PM
Fillon is apparently planing to offer his resignation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8579232.stm


Quote
Prime Minister Francois Fillon acknowledged the defeat, admitting the left's "success", and is expected to offer his resignation.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on March 22, 2010, 12:42:05 AM

I really like that map ... ;)

Not having looked into economic data, but I guess Paris-West, Elsass and South-Eastern PACA are wealthy areas compared with the rest of France ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 22, 2010, 01:37:09 AM

I hate my Département... :(


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 22, 2010, 03:08:27 AM
Huchon might be at 45% in the 16th arrondissement... sigh...

lol at rumours these days. "Only" 21.85% for Huchon in the 16th (Paris is in!)

Oh, that wasn't a rumour, just a stupid joke before going to bed ;).

Otherwise, even Bas-Rhin would have been in red !


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 22, 2010, 07:14:46 AM
Fillon is apparently planing to offer his resignation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8579232.stm


Quote
Prime Minister Francois Fillon acknowledged the defeat, admitting the left's "success", and is expected to offer his resignation.

Resignation in this case would mean Fillon handing Sarkozy his resignation, who would in turn refuse it and there would be a cabinet shuffle. Or it means it is accepted, but he forms a new government, in this case Fillon III Cabinet.

After every legislative election held after a new president is elected (1981, 2002, 2007), the Prime Minister resigns and is immediately re-nominated.


I really like that map ... ;)

Not having looked into economic data, but I guess Paris-West, Elsass and South-Eastern PACA are wealthy areas compared with the rest of France ?

Paris, Yvelines, Var and Alpes-Maritimes are very wealthy, yes. Alsace is wealthy but also traditionally very right-wing.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 22, 2010, 07:16:30 AM
Overseas:

Guyane:

UMP-DVG 56.1% (21 seats)
Taubira 43.8% (10 seats)

Martinique:

PPM-Letchimy 48.3% (26 seats)
MIM 41% (12 seats)
UMP 10.3% (3 seats)

Good to see that annoying sod Taubira lose. Hopefully she goes back and hides in her hole.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Barnes on March 22, 2010, 03:19:59 PM
Fillon is apparently planing to offer his resignation.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8579232.stm


Quote
Prime Minister Francois Fillon acknowledged the defeat, admitting the left's "success", and is expected to offer his resignation.

Resignation in this case would mean Fillon handing Sarkozy his resignation, who would in turn refuse it and there would be a cabinet shuffle. Or it means it is accepted, but he forms a new government, in this case Fillon III Cabinet.

After every legislative election held after a new president is elected (1981, 2002, 2007), the Prime Minister resigns and is immediately re-nominated.


Oh, I see. Thanks. :)

I'm much more knowledgeable of British politics then French. :)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 22, 2010, 03:42:35 PM
Apparently Darcos is gonna have his head chopped, as could people like Amara and Bockel. Francois Baroin, a young Chirac protege, and Georges Tron, a Villepiniste are likely to get in.

Personally, I don't see Penchard staying in at overseas affairs.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 22, 2010, 03:44:34 PM
I posted the changes in cabinet survivor.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 23, 2010, 04:45:05 AM
()

()

()

Well, no big change between 1st and 2nd rounds and that's a small surprise.

Troadec's votes seem to have gone on Le Drian's list.
Laot's votes seem to have gone on Malgorn's list but only marginally.
Joncour's votes seem to have gone on Hascoët's list but only partly.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 26, 2010, 12:36:26 PM
the joke poll of the day...

CSA poll - presidential

Sarkozy: 35
Aubry: 31
Marine Le Pen: 12
Bayrou: 7
Duflot: 6
Besancenot: 5
Arthaud: 2
Buffet: 2

turnout: 60 %

AUbry: 52 %
Sarkozy: 48 %

turnout: 66 %


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 26, 2010, 12:44:18 PM
Not sure it fits in here.

Regionals are over now, good, awful campaign, in short: Frêche-Soumaré-PRAVDA POLLS.

Good that we will now switch to something I think I would control better than this stuff that people don't really know how to handle and which change every 2 elections (would one more time change next time), and that are the only stuff that really matters in France (no matter we like it or not, it's a fact) the presidentials.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Umengus on March 27, 2010, 07:04:10 AM
Ifop poll - presidential

Aubry: 27
Sarkozy: 26
Marine le Pen: 11
Duflot: 9
Bayrou: 7
De villepin: 6
Melanchon: 6


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 27, 2010, 07:17:18 AM
Stop posting these polls in this thread. This isn't the general discussion thread.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 28, 2010, 04:08:07 PM
()


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: MaxQue on March 28, 2010, 04:11:20 PM
Would be an awful map for legislative elections for UMP.

Left won at least one "circonscription" in each department.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 28, 2010, 04:13:26 PM
Would be an awful map for legislative elections for UMP.

Left won at least one "circonscription" in each department.

It would basically be a reverse 1993 map, in a way. But of course, legislative elections would never see those results exactly because turnout patterns will alter stuff, the protest vote and vote for the fringe will be lower and so on and so forth.

Argentan's massive lovefest for Beauvais is funny, btw.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 29, 2010, 12:47:00 AM

Awesome. :D

Can you give us the constituency breakdown ?


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: big bad fab on March 30, 2010, 02:53:50 AM
Vendée, Loiret, Moselle are frightening !!
And Yvelines, Hauts-de-Seine, Marne, Aube are real bad.
(and, among these, these with no FN are a real disaster, of course).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on March 30, 2010, 05:29:52 AM
Vendée, Loiret, Moselle are frightening !!
And Yvelines, Hauts-de-Seine, Marne, Aube are real bad.
(and, among these, these with no FN are a real disaster, of course).

LOL I just noticed the left won one of the two MPF consituencies. Very bad indeed. ;D


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 30, 2010, 07:07:34 AM
Vendée, Loiret, Moselle are frightening !!
And Yvelines, Hauts-de-Seine, Marne, Aube are real bad.
(and, among these, these with no FN are a real disaster, of course).

LOL I just noticed the left won one of the two MPF consituencies. Very bad indeed. ;D

Not too surprising. That's Fontenay le Comte's constituency, and it historically covers a part of the plaine as opposed to the bocage, so it's historically been less reactionary and clerical than the areas of the bocage (except Roche-sur-Yon, which is actually an artificial city and historically Vendéen in location only).


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 30, 2010, 10:35:41 AM
except Roche-sur-Yon, which is actually an artificial city

No, it's just a more recent one, or all cities are artificial. A lot of cities around the word have been the decision of one man, small or big to very big cities.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 30, 2010, 11:44:51 AM
except Roche-sur-Yon, which is actually an artificial city

No, it's just a more recent one, or all cities are artificial. A lot of cities around the word have been the decision of one man, small or big to very big cities.

No, I meant artificial in the political sense. Aside from the fact that it was created by Napoleon in the middle of the bocage, La Roche has a quasi-zero influence on surrounding areas in terms of politics; when compared to cities like Rennes, Nantes, Rouen, Paris, Marseille, Lyon and so forth. Brest historically had little influence since it was an isolated republican working-class stronghold in the middle of the most clerical area of Brittany, and Le Havre is similar (it's surrounded by the Pays de Caux, which has little in common with Le Havre, Gonfreville-L'Orcher excluded).

In a political analysis of Vendée, one of my favourite topics, La Roche has a very little sphere of influence compared to, say, Rennes.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 30, 2010, 12:21:21 PM
except Roche-sur-Yon, which is actually an artificial city

No, it's just a more recent one, or all cities are artificial. A lot of cities around the word have been the decision of one man, small or big to very big cities.

No, I meant artificial in the political sense. Aside from the fact that it was created by Napoleon in the middle of the bocage, La Roche has a quasi-zero influence on surrounding areas in terms of politics; when compared to cities like Rennes, Nantes, Rouen, Paris, Marseille, Lyon and so forth. Brest historically had little influence since it was an isolated republican working-class stronghold in the middle of the most clerical area of Brittany, and Le Havre is similar (it's surrounded by the Pays de Caux, which has little in common with Le Havre, Gonfreville-L'Orcher excluded).

In a political analysis of Vendée, one of my favourite topics, La Roche has a very little sphere of influence compared to, say, Rennes.

Well, aside from the fact we can't compare La Roche-sur-Yon to big cities like those you cited, I would get your point. But anyways, can we actually speak of a 'political influence' of cities today? In our media world, the political influences, which belong to the cultural influences, don't really care of what's happening in the next city, it cares more about what's happening through the waves. Today, the geographical influence that matters is, and by far, the economical one, and here, I doubt La Roche-sur-Yon, which is the biggest city at, how much? 70kms around? (La Rochelle or Nantes is closer?) has no economical influence on its surrounding and then on Vendée. And today the economical influence has so much influence that a lot of the actual current political influence depends on it, lots of local political decisions depends on the 'economical tissue'. And the same for Le Havre, the 1st harbor of France and Brest other big harbor, their size and their economical activities give them an important influence on their territory. And well, historically, maybe it has always been more or less like that, a lot on politics is often based on economy, anyways by far today.

In other words, maybe your point has been historically valid, but today, because of what became the cultural spheres, and the primacy of economy is no more I'd say.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 30, 2010, 12:43:29 PM
except Roche-sur-Yon, which is actually an artificial city

No, it's just a more recent one, or all cities are artificial. A lot of cities around the word have been the decision of one man, small or big to very big cities.

No, I meant artificial in the political sense. Aside from the fact that it was created by Napoleon in the middle of the bocage, La Roche has a quasi-zero influence on surrounding areas in terms of politics; when compared to cities like Rennes, Nantes, Rouen, Paris, Marseille, Lyon and so forth. Brest historically had little influence since it was an isolated republican working-class stronghold in the middle of the most clerical area of Brittany, and Le Havre is similar (it's surrounded by the Pays de Caux, which has little in common with Le Havre, Gonfreville-L'Orcher excluded).

In a political analysis of Vendée, one of my favourite topics, La Roche has a very little sphere of influence compared to, say, Rennes.

Well, aside from the fact we can't compare La Roche-sur-Yon to big cities like those you cited, I would get your point. But anyways, can we actually speak of a 'political influence' of cities today? In our media world, the political influences, which belong to the cultural influences, don't really care of what's happening in the next city, it cares more about what's happening through the waves. Today, the geographical influence that matters is, and by far, the economical one, and here, I doubt La Roche-sur-Yon, which is the biggest city at, how much? 70kms around? (La Rochelle or Nantes is closer?) has no economical influence on its surrounding and then on Vendée. And today the economical influence has so much influence that a lot of the actual current political influence depends on it, lots of local political decisions depends on the 'economical tissue'. And the same for Le Havre, the 1st harbor of France and Brest other big harbor, their size and their economical activities give them an important influence on their territory. And well, historically, maybe it has always been more or less like that, a lot on politics is often based on economy, anyways by far today.

In other words, maybe your point has been historically valid, but today, because of what became the cultural spheres, and the primacy of economy is no more I'd say.

I get your point, and obviously political influence is closely related to economic influence and geographical conditions like roads, communications and work patterns. Yes, but do note that in political sociological analyses we refer to 'Rennes suburbia', 'Paris suburbia' and so forth. You don't often hear about 'the Roche suburbia'.

Suburban growth is not an historic thing, and suburban growth in a lot of France has had a direct political impact. Look the leftization of Breton/western suburbia, the rightization/far-rightization of Lyon suburbia. That's political influence. A city like La Roche, a prefecture, has had minimal impact on the political views of its suburbs. Being a small city near Nantes/La Rochelle plays a role, but its location in historically hostile ground (like Chalon-en-Champagne, used to be a PCF stronghold IIRC) and history in general cannot be forgotten. In political analyses which are coherent and intelligent, not paying attention to historical patterns would be stupid. Read Siegfred's stuff written in 1913, and you'll note how many things he describes haven't changed all that much and how much social-economic patterns he described in 1913 still apply, somewhat, in 2010. It's almost freaky.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on March 30, 2010, 01:50:09 PM
I get your point, and obviously political influence is closely related to economic influence and geographical conditions like roads, communications and work patterns. Yes, but do note that in political sociological analyses we refer to 'Rennes suburbia', 'Paris suburbia' and so forth. You don't often hear about 'the Roche suburbia'.

Suburban growth is not an historic thing, and suburban growth in a lot of France has had a direct political impact. Look the leftization of Breton/western suburbia, the rightization/far-rightization of Lyon suburbia. That's political influence.

Well, I'm not sure in which sense we can establish the political influence here, how can we say that an inner city, the core of an agglomeration I mean, has a political influence on its suburb?

Anyways, in the case of a city like La Roche-sur-Yon its size makes that it's hard for it just to have suburb, some small-middle cities like that have one, like Brive-Malemort, maybe also Saintes-Chaniers to an extent, or Castres-Labruguière, for the examples I lived in/close of, but anyways for middle cities like that then like La Roche the influence it can have on its suburb doesn't really matters I'd say, it's too small to really matters. What has to be seen is the influence it can have on 'its economical tissue of what surrounds', then on a bigger territory than the suburb. In the case of La Roche I dunno exactly, but iirc it's the city of the size of Castres, about 40,000 habitants, and seeing that there is nothing that big at about 70 kms around and that the smaller (what? Sables d'Olonne and Fontenay-le-Comte) are about the half and less of La Roche in term of population iirc, then La Roche must have an actual impact on Vendée, because of the size of its population and then of its economical activity.

Other than that, yes, suburbias that are very big cities have an impact that can be regional and that can't have small-middle ones like La Roche-sur-Yon, but it's just a matter of size here, once more of population, then of economical activity. Other influences, political and cultural ones, have a geography of waves today. What remains at best are the musical scenes, the art centers, and the places of memory (museums, monuments), all what can be concrete then, and that can't pass through waves, but most of the cultural influence today doesn't need materialization.

The political influence that remains are in the places of important decisions for a territory, but anyways, today the geographical cultures first less and less exist, and second the political ones are more and more dissociated of them, especially in a country like France which mixed a lot the populations who worked in public domain. The pattern of actual geographical culture with actual influence on the political one mainly apply to old politicians who belong to a territory and who has been marked by the cultural heritage of this territory in which they have been raised and practiced their job while they were in the core of their life activity. Or in the places that created a political culture, but one more time, it mainly apply to old people. The dynamic, since TV took some importance, then about 40 years ago, and now the Internet, made that cultural influences belongs to waves, and the political/cultural heritage of the former generations isn't very much transmitted to the young ones, and by young I'd say like for TV till 40, or maybe 50, the counter-culture generation, and anyways less and less the more you go under 40, and this is quite normal since the society knew huge changes meanwhile, these political/cultural heritages can't find real echoes today.

I agree that History has to be looked in analyzes but only to understand a reality, if what existed in History still exist in the present, then a simple observation will show it, if not it won't. In short History explains Present, but isn't necessarily Present. And the impact that the historical memory can have on Present, depends on societies and epoch, in some it will have a big impact and a lot of the decisions taken in the present will be justified on the historical culture/heritage, but one more time, today, we live in our epoch that has cut a lot with its historical heritage, that is the sense of counter-culture, and the changes since have been huge, and awareness of History doesn't matter a lot culturally. Though, for a few years, there is a back to 'traditions/terroir/good ol' cultures', because feeling some misses in the current culture, so you know 'c'était mieux avant...' ('was better before...') mood and so forth, but as I could have already said I think it's just a 'back-and-forth'.

In short today we're in an epoch that has cut a lot with its historical heritage for about 40 years, since which the cultural and then political influences have mainly been developed through a geography of waves, the geographical influences that remain are those based on concrete things, of which economy became today the most important.

Though, that's is for a present analysis, if we try to project ourselves we can also notice that economy more and more goes toward dematerialization, at least that's the current dynamic.

Ahem, from La Roche-sur-Yon to the dematerialization of the human societies. The latter is not definitely done, but we already took a serious path toward it. That's our present and that's the way by now...

(wow, long post, hope that remains easy to read)


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Hash on March 30, 2010, 04:28:08 PM
I'm quite sorry, but I don't have the time nor the courage to answer to all your points, and, as always, you've managed to lose me entirely and get me on another train line that my original line. Ahem.

I maintain my points, that La Roche is an artificial city (which was my sole point originally) with little influence even compared to other middle-cities. And that was only a minor detail to my larger point which was a simple explanation of the plaine vs. bocage in Vendée.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 30, 2010, 06:11:35 PM
Yeah, planned towns often lack the... you know... of 'normal' towns. You can see it with the New Towns here.


Title: Re: French Regionals 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on April 02, 2010, 09:29:34 AM
Yah, sry for having been a bit far.

Well, it was just the word 'artificial' that made me started, 'cause you know, there can be a pejorative connotation in it ('fake', 'anomaly'), well, for La Roche, as for some other cities, maybe artificial isn't the good term, maybe 'more recent' would be enough, as 'more recent' it didn't find a place in deeper historical trends.

Anyhow, the point of the looong post was to say that today I'd say there have been a cut with historical trend since 40 years. Since 40 years there have been the development of the counter culture, that wanted to cut with past historical trends, the development of medias from which the largest part of the culture is spread and what spreads culture spreads political ideas, instead of the cultural then political centers that the cities were, and the development of transports that with car especially has permit a mobility of individuals never seen in History. For all of this, I'd say that all the people who were born 40 years ago and before are more or less (according to individuals) detached of the historical trends. Though, obviously these trends don't disappear, all the olds would still express them, and the generation who created counter-culture as well, they have been raised in it and with their retirement now they tend to go back to it, that is all people over 60. In between I'd say there is a mixed generation the 40-60.

So my point was in short (I try) this 'artificiality' of La Roche-sur-Yon would matter less and less today because of what we live since 40 years, the deeper historical trends being mainly maintained by people over 40 and especially over 60. New trends could be summed up by a lesser and lesser importance of geographical cultures, cultures happening mainly in media, geography being mainly important for economy.

I would only apply this analysis to France, to the development of its transportations and medias, I don't make of it a Western analysis.

Yeah, planned towns often lack the... you know... of 'normal' towns. You can see it with the New Towns here.

Eh yah, for the post WW2, and especially post counter-culture period, well, according the French examples I know, they express the reflect of the epoch they have been raised in. Even if some wanted to express 'futurism' it's rarely the case, or at least I couldn't think to an example that has really been 'futurist'. The fact they are build on plan makes more rigidity too, and for build-on-plan more recent cities, the building technologies make that they have been quickly built, not on several epochs, and also there haven't been much History on it to give them more...'character'. But for older one, I've never been to La Roche-sur-Yon, but I know Rochefort (Charente-Maritime) totally new city decided by Louis XIV, and except the fact that streets are 'right angle' that's a 'normal' city today. Would seem a city like Saint-Petersburg would have some 'you know' as well. I just mean, that's not necessarily the fact it has built on plan that it makes it miss of 'you know'.

Though, yah, new cities of the '70s really miss of 'you know'.

I saw something on the new ecological district of 'La Borne' in Grenoble yesterday on TV, damn, I want new ecological cities! I don't find it ugly, and most of all it gives back sense to architecture, to our accommodations, same in Sweden, seems they made good stuffs in Malmö...