Talk Elections

This will be opened later today, don't know when.

I, the Boardbashi, declare this thread... open. Unless I've got the time wrong. Again.

2 minutes...

CDU/CSU 33.5 - SPD 22.5 - FDP 15 - Left 12.5 - Greens 10.5 - Pirates 2.0 - other 4.0 (ARD exit poll)

Again: F**k !!!

CDU/FDP majority, IIRC!

CDU/FDP majority!!!!!!!!!!!!

What's up in SH ?

What be the seat projections from the exit polls?

CDU 31, SPD 25.5, FDP 15.5, GRE 12, SSW 4, LINKE 6.5, OTH 5.5

CDU 213-229
SPD 143
FDP 95
Left 80
GRN 67

Turnout estimated at 72.5. With the exact kind of SPD result to go with it.

SlH
CDU 31 - SPD 25.5 - FDP 15.5 - Greens 12 - Left 6.5 - SSW 4 - other 5.5

If this is the result, this thing will go to the courts... I'll explain later. Turnout 74.5

Brandenburg
SPD 31.5 - Left 27.5 - CDU 21.5 - FDP 8 - Greens 5.5 - DVU 1 (lol!) - other 5. Turnout 67

OK, no Black-Yellow there ...

Wonderful :)

hooray! Cheers!

According to the ZDF they have a 1-aseat majority due to some strange law.

BBC fail:


Norway is no longer in Europe. Official.

Maybe that's what Lewis meant ...

ZDF exit poll:

CDU 33.5
FDP 14.5

SPD 23.5
Left 13.0
Green 10.0


CDU/FDP = 48.0
SPD/Green/Left = 46.5

stable majority!

Schleswig-Holstein has relatively many direct seats, well over half the Parliament. So very many overhang mandates. Expected to go to the CDU, of course.
And a paragraph in the state law that can be read as limiting the equalization mandates to twice as many as the overhang mandates (ie, basically no limit) or limiting them to the same number as overhang mandates (as also in Saxony) - which on these figures would be enough to throw this thing.
The same wording is used in local elections (Schleswig-Holstein has direct seats there too) and is actually getting interpreted differently in different communes. With courts having upheld both interpretations. :o

Probably the old EU=Europe, not EU=not Europe.

Ok, stupid question from the US, did the Pirates run as a left leaning party? If so, than combined with Greens, Linke and SPD that would be really close to CDU/FDP vote total. Once again the threshold law rears it head.

Certainly (I've thought of it too). But then we next need to ask us how many votes the Nazis got (just singling them out because they're probably the next largest party behind the Pirates).

doesn't matter, they don't get any seats without 5% of the vote.

Swedish PP sits in G-EFA, so, yeah, they're obviously more left though they don't, afaik, claim to be so directly.

Read the last sentence. :)

Is it odd that I can't find this thread from the board page?

Let's hold our horses until actual votes have been counted. I seem to recall that in the last couple German election, the exit poll projections were saying it would be a big night for the CDU/FDP and then when the votes were counted that advantage melted away.

Incidentally, it looks like FDP gained a lot of ground today. What is the explanation for that? Is it just reaping the benefit of being in opposition to a grand coalition or has there been some sudden growth in yearning for deregulation and tax cuts in Germany (ie: all the policies that have led the world economy down the garden path esp. in the US)

It's been stickied.

Most likely economically right-wing CDU voters.

Not the Exit Polls. These were pre-election polls ...

ARD Projection, already based on a couple results.
33.4 - 22.7 - 14.8 - 12.5 - 10.6
Marginally better.

I'm talking about exit polls. Remember how Stoiber declared himself the winner of the election based on exit polls and then as the votes were counted he had to withdraw his declaration?

Was closer than now, though. And Stoiber's declaration was viewed as quite premature by all and sundry at the time.

Awsome results. :)

I note that the CSU has lost about one percentage point - one in seven voters - while the CDU is approximately stable.

I can't wait until real results flow in.

Bavaria Exit Poll:

CSU: 41% (-8%)
SPD: 16.5% (-9%)
FDP: 15.5% (+6%)
Greens: 11.5% (+3.5%)
Left: 6.5% (+3%)

Would be hilarious if the FDP surpassed the SPD.

I guess these results are best for everyone.


Ah, that would explain it.

()

()

If things stay as they are and unless I'm misreading summet - worst SPD result since 1932 (if you don't count 1933 as entirely legit), worst CDU-CSU result since 1949.

What happened to the DVU in Brandenburg?

NRW (most populous state):

CDU: 33.0%
SPD: 27.5%
FDP: 15.0%
Greens: 11.0%
Left: 9.0%

Unemployed voters:
Left 26
SPD 22
CDU/CSU 21
FDP 10
Greens 9
other 12

(Sampling error alert)

Now, a east-west breakdown on that would be fun.

Become a totally disorganized joke. And had the NPD run against it as a result.

ARD-prognosis West-Germany - East-Germany

All voters, not only the unemployed ones.

CDU/CSU 34,5 - 29,0
SPD 23,5 - 18,0
FDP 16,0 - 11,0
Linke 9,0 - 27,5
Grüne 11,5 - 8,5
Pirate 2,0 - 2,0
NPD ?? - 3,0
Other 4,0 - 1,0 (in West incl NPD, in East without)

Best FDP result ever! Rock on Guido!

How long 'till we get proper results?

Exit poll found that, in a straight choice, 46% wanted a Grand Coalition and only 40% CDU/CSU-FDP.

Currrent ARD "score" (30 minutes ago)
CDU 33.4
SPD 22.7
FDP 14.8
Linke 12.5
Greens 10.6
Pirates 2.1
Others 3.9

As for proper results, give it an hour or two. Hang on...

CDU biggest party in the East? huh

Lot of Christians in the old GDR.

Last time, it wasn't done and dusted for several days.

49% rated unemployment as the biggest issue, which is seemingly 31% down on 2005.

Parties were fairly split on the issues.

Can someone explain why the SPD is getting such a whipping?

Short version: being in coalition with the CDU for four years did not exactly help the party with its base or with lefty swing voters.

Vote-split-freak.

I've noticed that in Europe parties that the junior partners in coalitions tend to lose a lot of support in subsequent elections. The FDP tended to barely clear the 5% hurdle when it was in government with the CDU and we also see in the Netherlands that the D-66 tends to get wiped off the map every time they are part of the governing coalition and then they make a big comeback when they are in opposition.

So are official unemployment figures. (shrugs)

GDR voting patterns aren't based as much on sociological stuff as they are in the West.

Ah, I see.

Official or "official"?

All offical unemployment statistics are in fact "official".

We got an update on whatever the current guess ("Hochrechnung" is).

Union 33.4
SPD 23.0
FDP 14.7
Linke 12.6
Greens 10.4

Of course.

Remind me how many seats is needed for a majority in the Bundestag?

Wow, Brandenburg looks like a mess and a half. Grand Coalition likely there.

That depends on how many seats there are. That's variable :)

Now I remember. The overhanging mandates. What a stupid idea. Especially when ordering stationery.

Can someone give me a concise explanation of the German seat-allocation system? I'm almost getting it but not quite.

What I've got is this: you have 2 votes. One for a candidate, FPTP like in the US or UK and one for a party (like in Sweden). If you get too few seats in the FPTP-system you get compensated in some way but if you get too many you can keep them (the überhang). But I'm not clear on the details.

Official unemployment figures were closer to the truth in 2005 than is usual, due to a law change that it took time to adjust to. (Indeed, they may have been actually overstated.) But there was *some* real job creation in the years after until the economic crash, and *relatively* little job loss since.

Seats are allocated by list vote, first to parties, then to state parties. When a party has won too many direct seats in that state (number of direct seats is half the number of seats total) then it gets to keep the surplus.
Don't bother to understand it, it's been declared unconstitutional from 2011.

Good!

Frankfurt on 89 precincts

CDU 28.9
SPD 23.5
FDP 16.2
Greens 14.4
Left 11.4
Pirates 2.5
NPD 1.1
Animals 1.1

In case you're wondering, yes that Green vote will go up.

Been looking at the exit poll breakdowns on the ZDF site - yeah I don't put too much stock in them, but they can be interesting. Anyway, in some (but not all) ways the sociological profile of SPD voters in the West seems to have more in common with Left voters in the East than with Easten SPD voters.

Lol, precincts 140 01 and 140 02, southwesternmost corner of the East End (just east of where I live.) Weird mix of poor 100-plus year old housing, poor 50s and 60s housing (lots of immigrants in both), and yuppie enclave hyper-rich 2000s housing.
Greens 258 (21.8%)
SPD 255
FDP 244
CDU 229 (19.4%)
Left 144 (12.2%)
Pirates 33 (2.8%)
other 20

I suppose that should be a "than". Makes sense.

Who would have thought that the first lingustic cock-up on a thread about elections in Germany on an anglophone forum would have been by a native English speaker...


Yeah, it's what I expected to find as well. But worth noting, I think.

Terrible day for social democracy in Germany. I'm really depressed. Never thought this would get that bad.

so how much did the Pirates cost the left-wing?

198 precincts
CDU 27.3
SPD 23.4
Greens 16.0
FDP 16.0
Left 11.7
Pirates 2.5
Animals 1.1
NPD 1.0

CDU ahead by about three points in both direct constituencies.

kunta kinte where is a site for follow the live of ballot?

You'd have to follow the diverse state and municipal sites. Federal site will only show completed constituencies and thus not be interesting for hours. Actually, much the same will hold for many state sites.

A bit of District 66 is in (Brandenburg):

Zenker, Thomas (SPD)     2.504    25,9 %
Dr. Brie, Andreas (DIE LINKE)    2.719    28,1 %
Stübgen, Michael (CDU)    2.947    30,5 %

Was roughly 35-26-26 for SPD in 2005.

I read on the internet the pirates got about 2%, what is much more i expected. Thanks to the record low turnout of course, at least to a degree.

nooo this is a very bad news.. italy is better ;)

For anyone interested, socialist results in the past:

Year	Seats	Seat %	Vote %
1871	2	0.5%	3.2%
1874	7	2.3%	6.8%
1877	12	3%	9.1%
1878	9	2.3%	7.6%
1881	12	3%	6.1%
1884	24	6%	9.7%
1887	11	2.8%	10.1%
1890	35	8.8%	19.7%
1893	44	11.1%	23.3%
1898	56	14.1%	27.2%
1903	81	20.4%	31.7%
1907	43	10.8%	28.9%
1912	110	27.7%	34.8%
1919	165	39%	37.9%
1920	102	22.2%	21.7%
1924 I	100	21.2%	20.5%
1924 II	131	26.6%	26%
1928	153	31.2%	29.8%
1930	143	24.8%	24.5%
1932 I	133	21.9%	21.9%
1932 II	121	20.7%	20.4%
1933	120	18.5%	18.3%
1949	131	32.6%	29.2%
1953	151	31%	31%
1957	169	34%	31.7%
1961	190	38.1%	36.2%
1965	202	40.7%	39.3%
1969	224	45.2%	42.7%
1972	230	46.4%	45.8%
1976	214	43.1%	42.6%
1980	218	43.9%	42.9%
1983	193	38.8%	38.2%
1987	186	37.4%	37%
1990	239	36.1%	33.5%
1994	252	37.5%	36.4%
1998	298	44.5%	40.9%
2002	251	41.6%	38.5%
2005	222	36.2%	34.2%

@And-L

It's like Lewis Trondheim said.

What really scares me ist the decline of the two major parties. Together they are down to 55-57%.

Complete results for the Old Town and the Riederwald

Old Town
Turnout 72.8
CDU 27.0, SPD 20.9, FDP 19.4, Green 18.5, Left 9.9
Riederwald
Turnout 63.9
SPD 30.5, Left 20.6, CDU 18.7, Green 12.0, FDP 10.1. Pirates 3.2, Animals 2.3, in case you were wondering where this year's crop of protest third party voters comes from.

Please. André Brie.

Wow.

Yeah. I think that's more than the KPD got in 1946.

Hessen Projection:

CDU: 31% (-2)
SPD: 26% (-10)
FDP: 17% (+5)
Greens: 12% (+2)
Left: 9% (+3)

Now I'm back from my work in my polling station. The afternoon was not so bad i expect.

The result in Germany is for the SPD a disaster. The only good for them is this result is so bad, they must change something. With a CDU/CSU- FDP government they can make a good opposition and maybe then the voters come back to the SPD.

The Left has a very good result and the Greens have a good result too.

Now  it gives a Black- Yellow government in Germany. This is not my wish, but we will alive it. I lived 16 years with Helmut Kohl and then I can live 4 years with the clown Westerwelle as minister.

What the hell are you comparing to here?

Gutleut & Bahnhof
Turnout 68.4
Greens 21.7
FDP 20.7
SPD 20.2
CDU 19.0
Left 13.1
Pirates 3.6

Lmao.

Oh, sry, I mixed up the comparison for SPD and CDU ... :P

I'd have been torn between the CDP and SPD this time, maybe even casting an SPD ballot if only to keep the FDP out but I'm pleased Merkel has been re-elected Chancellor. It's important that Germany continues the fight in Afghanistan

Still, there is hope :) reforms will not be too radical

http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1047441

A victory for the Conservative-Liberal coalition would open opportunities for labor market reforms, with the FDP's numerous proposals which include curtailing employee rights and hence making labor a more flexible resource in order to create new jobs. However, the employee wing of the CDU/CSU would be unlikely to support these proposals. Hence, a Conservative-Liberal government would only implement a diluted version of the FDP's agenda.

Worth noting that turnout is low in areas full of old conservative non-posh people too.

Sossenheim
Turnout 62.6
CDU 34.2, SPD 22.1, FDP 15.7, Left 12.1, Greens 9.8

Eckenheim
Turnout 66.1
CDU 26.4, SPD 23.9, Greens 15.5, FDP 14.7, Left 13.3

By contrast
Harheim
Turnout 82.9
CDU 37.0, SPD 20.6, FDP 18.7, Greens 12.6, Left 6.4

FDP currently leading in Westend South.

Can we compare this to UK 1983? In a way?

Indeed. Provided it avoids any more incidents like that fuel tanker one.

It's called a war crime.

I'm calling both Frankfurt seats for the CDU.

Few more Stadtteile in, but I'll leave be with posting until we're all through.
Westend S is in, and the CDU just pipped the FDP. Turnout differentials within the city are nothing short of insane.

The result of my hometown:

http://www.landkreis-wunsiedel.de/data/wahlen/wahlen/Bundestagswahl_2009/479000_000069/239479150000.html?landkreis=239479000000.html&gemeinde=239479150000.html

Erststimmen nach Wahlvorschlag
WV-Nr Partei Erststimmen Prozent
1 Dr. Friedrich, Hans-Peter (CSU) 842 42,48%
2 Ernstberger, Petra (SPD) 589 29,72%
3 Quehl, Stefan (FDP) 143 7,21%
4 Scharfenberg, Elisabeth (GRÜNE) 167 8,43%
5 Engelhardt, Klaus Bruno (DIE LINKE) 186 9,38%
6 Bestehorn, Harald (NPD) 43 2,17%
20 Wunderlich, Heinz (Willi-Weise-Projekt) 12 0,61%

Zweitstimmen nach Wahlvorschlag
WV-Nr Partei Zweitstimmen Prozent
1 CSU 783 39,63%
2 SPD 527 26,67%
3 FDP 193 9,77%
4 GRÜNE 139 7,03%
5 DIE LINKE 200 10,12%
6 NPD 34 1,72%
7 REP 4 0,20%
8 FAMILIE 15 0,76%
9 BP 13 0,66%
10 PBC 5 0,25%
11 BüSo 0 0,00%
12 MLPD 0 0,00%
13 CM 2 0,10%
14 DVU 1 0,05%
15 DIE VIOLETTEN 4 0,20%
16 DIE TIERSCHUTZPARTEI 12 0,61%
17 ödp 10 0,51%
18 PIRATEN 26 1,32%
19 RRP 8 0,40%

What is the Willi Weise project, and is it weise or is it wunderlich?

My home precinct is in.

SPD 142, Greens 120, CDU 96, FDP 73, Left 65, Pirates 32 (over 5% ;D )

It's more wunderlich ;D

It's a farmer who want to make all better

1 constituency now fully counted:

Rheinland-Pfalz: Wahlkreis 199 - Ahrweiler

Direct Vote:

Mechthild Heil (CDU): 45.5% (-4) ELECTED
Andrea Nahles (SPD): 24.9% (-11)
Christina Theresa Steinheuer (FDP): 15.0% (+9)
Frank Bliss (Greens): 7.4% (+4)
Gert Winkelmeier (Left): 6.1% (+2)

List Vote:

CDU: 39.9% (-3)
SPD: 21.1% (-11)
FDP: 18.9% (+7)
Greens: 8.5% (+3)
Left: 7.4% (+3)

In a way, yeah, although the distribution of seats of course is very different, because of the different effects of FPTP and MMP.
In both elections we've seen a major defeat for Social Democrats, while the other major parties didn't gain any votes at all.
Third parties won big in both elections, the Alliance in UK 1983 and FDP, Greens + Left in Germany this year.

Some more partial results from Brandenburg (they release when at least 20% of precincts are in). Left ahead in two (ten points ahead in the one election.de projected them to win), SPD in one of these.

An official estimate of Schleswig-Holstein federal result:

 Landesendergebnis
  Schleswig-Holstein 2005    

79,1
   38,2    36,4    10,1    8,4    4,6    

 
turnout 72,5 (-6.6)
SPD   26,9 (-11.3)    CDU 33,4 (-3.0)    FDP 15,9 (+5.8)    Greens 11,7 (+3.3)    Left 7,7 (+3.1)

Saarland: Wahlkreis 296 - Saarbrücken

Direct Vote:

Anette Hübinger (CDU): 31.8% (+2) ELECTED x CDU-Pickup
Elke Ferner (SPD): 30.4% (-3)
Volker Schneider (Left): 22.2% (-4)
Roland König (FDP): 7.4% (+4)
Karin Burkart (Greens): 6.7% (+3)

List Vote:

CDU: 26.5% (nc)
Left: 24.0% (+3)
SPD: 23.9% (-9)
FDP: 12.2% (+4)
Greens: 8.8% (+1)

Ludwigshafen is also a CDU pickup.

Rheinland-Pfalz: Wahlkreis 208 - Ludwigshafen/Frankenthal

Direct Vote:

Maria Böhmer (CDU): 38.4% (-1) ELECTED x CDU-Pickup
Doris Barnett (SPD): 32.4% (-11)
Kathrin Senger-Schäfer (Left): 8.6% (+4)
Ralf Marohn (FDP): 8.6% (+4)
Bernhard Braun (Greens): 6.2% (+3)

List Vote:

CDU: 32.4% (-1)
SPD: 26.7% (-11)
FDP: 14.9% (+4)
Left: 10.3% (+5)
Greens: 8.6% (+2)

Chemnitz. First East German constituency wholly in.

Turnout 66.2 (-9.9)
CDU 30.5 (+6.2)
Left 28.6 (+2.2)
SPD 17.1 (-9.6)
FDP 12.7 (+2.9)
Greens 7.1 (+1.6)
NPD 2.7 (-0.5)

Direct vote:
CDU 34.1 (+6.1), Left 27.9 (+1.3), SPD 20.1 (-8.3)

On these kind of figures, if they hold across the East, the West German CDU can indeed afford a bit of a loss.

Page with constituency results in order of declaration (http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/status/)

SPD will hold Kiel and Lübeck.

In Kiel the SPD is leading by 10 points (based on 154/190).
In Lübeck the SPD candidate is leading by 7,5 pionts (based on 130/167).

Waldeck is, so far, the only constituency the SPD has officially held.

What is the youngest MP in Germany ?

Nadine Müller (CDU) is 26 and has picked up a seat in District 298 (St. Wendel, Saarland).

SPD candidates also hold the districts of Oberhausen-Wesel III and Schwalm-Eder.

Sort of nice that all the officially declared constituencies in Hesse so far are SPD. Can only be a matter of minutes though. The list vote for Frankfurt I is wholly counted, though two precincts are missing in the direct vote.

EDIT: Lol, became a thing of the past as I was typing. Bergstraße came in.

CDU-candidate Egon Jüttner picks up Mannheim, due to a massive loss of 16% for the SPD.

Second CDU gain not projected at election.de. The overhang is going to be really, really, incredibly massive.

In the district of Delmenhorst-Wesermarsch-Oldenburg-Land in Lower Saxony, the CDU picks up another seat.

Astrid Grotelüschen defeats Holger Ortel (SPD) by 35.3% to 34.7%, with the SPD losing 15.4% compared with 2005.

Look on the bright side. The CDU could not win Oberhausen. Lol.

What's up with my last six Frankfurt precincts - including three in the North End (making me hold out hope that the Greens might have placed third in the city after all. Well, okay, not really. Gap's a little too large.)

And the CDU (presumably) sweeps Saxony as they win both seats in Leipzig.

Weird result in Hamburg-Eimsbüttel

Oh wow. Hamburg Eimsbüttel.

Turnout 76.2 (-4.8)
List vote:
CDU 26.8 (-0.6), SPD 26.8 (-10.5), Greens 18.4 (+0.4), FDP 13.4 (+3.9), Left 10.4 (+4.3)
Direct vote:
CDU 31.3 (-2.4), Green 25.9 (+13.4), SPD 23.8 (-21.2), Left 9.0 (+4.6), FDP 8.4 (+4.8)

IIRC there was some problem with the SPD candidate.

Ilkhanipour, Danial (SPD)

(IRAN-bias)

As in he said something stupid, or just the name?

Some oddly low swings in a couple of seats in NRW that were close last time. Both CDU gains though.

The foreign name may have been not helpful, but the issue is the coup that led to his selection and the deselection of highprofile leftwinger Niels Annen. Made big waves in Hamburg though I didn't really follow the story, my bad. Didn't help that the Green candidate, Krista Sager, is pretty high profile too.

Where can I get results by municipality in, say, Bayern?

Left gain Halle

Only in the direct vote in Steinfurt III. What's the other one? http://www.spd-eimsbuettel-nord.de/index.php?nr=136&menu=1

http://www.bundestagswahl2009.bayern.de/index.html

Danke.

Siegen-Wittgenstein

Where are the municipalities in that? ??? Maybe I'm too stupid.

2005 (http://www.statistik.bayern.de/wahlen/bundestagswahlen/)

SPD hold Marburg and Märkischer Kreis II, lose the Erfurt seat.

Maybe they are released later when every district is counted.

First state result:

Saarland.

turnout 73.7 (-5.7)
CDU 30.7 (+0.5)
SPD 24.7 (-8.6)
Left 21.2 (+2.7)
FDP 11.9 (+4.4)
Greens 6.8 (+0.8)

CDU 4 direct seats (+4), SPD 0 (-4)

A propos

SPD     22.341     16,3     -19,2     21.684     15,8     -17,2
DIE LINKE    46.272    33,7    7,2    43.617    31,7    5,3
CDU    42.430    30,9    5,2    37.004    26,9    5,7

Direct vote on the left, list vote on the right. Wow.

Union/FDP majority.....YES, YES, YES!

SPD holds Kaiserslautern, so no complete blowout south of Hesse.
Worms, too.

SPD lose Helmstedt - Wolfsburg

Green Party Leader Cem Özdemir fails to win Stuttgart I but gets 30% there (+20%) ... :(

Left gain Altmark

And Özdemir's result:

CDU 34.4 (-4.7), Greens 29.9 (+19.5), SPD 18.0 (-20.6)

List vote:
CDU 27.9 (-4.5), Greens 22.0 (+4.7), FDP 19.5 (+5.8), SPD 18.9 (-11.3), Left 6.7 (+2.8)

SPD hold Herford - Minden-Lübbecke II

Beat me to it. By 0.8. OWL's former stomping grounds.

Franzl's district will come in anytime soon I guess. Just 1 town in this district left.

While Wesel I, described as very close in that strange Rheinische Post article some hours ago, goes CDU by 0.2. :(

Don't hold your breath. There have been just 8 precincts left in Frankfurt for almost an hour now.

Maybe they weren't too far off after all ...

And we've crossed the 50% of constituencies mark.

Federal result so far, just for the lols:

SPD     22,2     -10,8
CDU    26,5    -0,7
FDP     15,0    5,0
DIE LINKE    10,7    3,1
GRÜNE            10,0    2,6
CSU             9,4    -1,3
NPD        1,5    -0,1
PIRATEN        1,8    1,8

All others 0.6 or less.

CDU picks up Hamburg-Wandsbek.

Isn`t Inglo Egloff, who was defeated, the SPD-boss of Hamburg ?

Chairman. Yes.

I notice the very small Green gain and high Left gain here. So it wasn't just due to reverse vote splitting in Eimsbüttel. It's the Black-Green government.

What's the number for each party in constituencies now?

Caren Marks (SPD) barely holds Hannover-Land I with a 0.5%-advantage.

SPD hold Lippe I, lose Wiesbaden.

Franzl's district is in:

Patricia Lips (CDU) wins with 40.4% to 29.6% for the SPD guy.

Election.de has 103 CDU-CSU, 12 SPD, 1 Left. Didn't update recently, though, so CDU and SPD numbers went up a tad.

Btw, I want Erding and Lehel. Hurry up you Bavarians.

CDU 106
CSU 37
SPD 26
Left 2

if I counted right.

Rhineland Pfalz state result

turnout 72.0 (-6.8)
CDU 35.0 (-1.9)
SPD 23.8 (-10.8)
FDP 16.6 (+4.9)
Greens 9.7 (+2.4)
Left 9.4 (+3.8)
Pirates 1.9
NPD 1.2 (-0.1)
Families 1.0 (-0.1) etc

12 seats for the CDU (+3), 2 for the SPD (-3)

As close as I expected. At least the SPD guy is from my home town :).

CDU gain Frankfurt I

Good, that's about what I expected.

CDU picks up Osterholz-Verden by 0.5%.

Frankfurt II coming through any moment as well.

Crazy-Woman hold

LINKE gains Rostock.

The city that doesn't exist would have been gained by the CDU if it did.

Time to make a map onethinks.

http://www.stadt-frankfurt.de/wahlen/zweit/otzweit.htm

To save you the bother of calculating turnout
Altstadt 72.8, Innenstadt 63.3, Gutleut/Bahnhof 68.4, Gallus 59.7, Bockenheim 74.6, Westend S 81.8, N 75.6, Northend W 79.1, E 78.9, Bornheim 73.8, Eastend 73.3, Oberrad 71.2, Sachsenhausen N 77.6, S 76.7, Niederrad 69.1, Schwanheim 67.8, Griesheim 57.0, Nied 66.1, Höchst 61.6, Sindlingen 64.0, Zeilsheim 66.2, Unterliederbach 68.6, Sossenheim 62.6, Rödelheim 69.3, Hausen 74.3, Praunheim 70.6, Heddernheim 71.2, Niederursel 69.3, Eschersheim 76.3, Ginnheim 73.4, Dornbusch 77.8, Eckenheim 66.1, Preungesheim 70.6, Berkersheim 74.0, Bonames 65.8, Frankfurter Berg 68.2 (it is now possible to calculate these separately!), Seckbach 71.4, Riederwald 63.9, Fechenheim 62.8, Bergen Enkheim 78.0, Kalbach 79.4, Nieder Eschbach 70.1, Harheim 82.9, Nieder Erlenbach 81.3.

SPD wins Gallus, Riederwald, Fechenheim and Höchst.
Greens win Northend E, Bockenheim and Gutleut/Bahnhof. SPD and Greens tie for second in Bornheim, 0.2 behind the CDU. ;D

Northern Munich goes to the CSU.

Is it a complete CSU sweep in Bavaria now ?

Almost certainly.

CSU gains München-Nord!

Clean sweep in Bavaria for the CSU, I think.

Edit: Tender beat me...

Unless a miracle happens in Ansbach or Munich West. Or a once-in-the-lifetime-of-the-universe magnitude miracle happens in Rosenheim. :D

Worth pointing out that Munich North vote splitting continues, btw, it just wasn't enough:

CSU     57.196     36,5     -4,4     48.621     31,0     -5,2
SPD    55.645    35,5    -8,2    31.063    19,8    -10,1
FDP    15.757    10,1    5,2    28.193    18,0    5,9
GRÜNE    15.292    9,8    4,2    27.402    17,5    2,6
DIE LINKE    7.784    5,0    2,3    10.707    6,8    2,8

Left is direct, right is list.

Westerwelle strikes again!

SPD hold Bonn - Adenauer's old seat - due to lack of FDP transfers. That's a seat the CDU held in 1998 (one of three trendbucking flips of 2002, along with Münster and one of the Stuttgart seats.)

CDU will probably win Freiburg too, making it a complete sweep for the Union in the South (Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg).

You mean Freiburg?

Green gains in Altona = 0,0. SPD holds the seat.

Yeah, I'll start work on that soon.

Already corrected.

CDU fails to gain Darmstadt by just 46 votes. Closest result ofthe night methinks.

I had been marvelling at the Left's bad luck in Thuringia so far. Well, so much for that. Last two seats come in and are both gains.
Granted, they were the best bets. (Gera-Jena and the one around Suhl etc.)

Of course that means we have a state result:

Turnout 65.2 (-10.2)
CDU 31.2 (+5.5)
Left 28.8 (+2.7)
SPD 17.6 (-12.2)
FDP 9.8 (+1.9)
Greens 6.0 (+1.2)
NPD 3.2 (-0.4)
Pirates 2.5

CDU 7 (+4), Left 2 (+2), SPD 0 (-6)

Well, Munich West and Rosenheim are not happening...

The CSU is losing statewide though (first and second votes), except for direct votes in Kulmbach (+8% to 68%). Guess who's the local candidate ;).

Tempted to make a joke about that result being discordant, but I'll hold my tongue...

Not sure what you mean?

Erding (direct vote)!

CSU 48.9 (-9.4)
SPD 17.6 (-7.2)
FDP 11.9 (6.5)
Green 12.7 (5.2)
Left 4.4 (1.8)

CDU gains Minden-Lübbecke I :D (SPD hold since 1949)

Bavaria

turnout 71.8 (-6.1)
CSU 42.6 (-6.7)
SPD 16.8 (-8.6)
FDP 14.7 (+5.2)
Greens 10.8 (+2.9)
Left 6.5 (+3.0)
Pirates 2.0
NPD 1.3 (0)

Clean sweep, as mentioned.

With just 62 seats still out, CDU-CSU-FDP are still polling a narrow majority of the vote.

Though as this includes no results from Brandenburg and Berlin (nor Bremen and Schleswig Holstein)...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darmstadt_School

Wow. That's crazy.

Pretty disappointing result overall, though it's nice to see that the Pirates will beat the Fascists.

Groß-Gerau is the last Hessian constituency to wait for.

So, how many overhangs is it looking like? Could it be 30 seats?

Meh. Kaiserslautern and Worms makes the map look odd.

SPD hold Braunschweig

Btw, what news from the state elections?

Saxony is complete. Has been for a moment, actually.

turnout 65.0 (-10.7)
CDU 35.6 (+5.5)
Left 24.5 (+1.7)
SPD 14.6 (-9.9)
FDP 13.3 (+3.1)
Greens 6.7 (+1.9)
NPD 4.0 (-0.8)
Pirates didn't run.

Clean CDU sweep, ie 16 (+2) vs 0 (-3) for the SPD. State lost a seat.

CDU gains Groß-Gerau by less than 500 votes

Hesse
turnout 73.7 (-5.0)
CDU 32.2 (-1.5)
SPD 25.6 (-10.1)
FDP 16.6 (+4.9)
Greens 12.0 (+1.9)
Left 8.5 (+3.2)
Pirates 2.1
NPD 1.1 (-0.1)
Animals 1.0 (+0.2)

CDU 15 (+7), SPD 6 (-7). And yes, the CDU gains Groß-Gerau.

Lower Saxony

turnout 73.3 (-6.0)
CDU 33.2 (-0.4)
SPD 29.3 (-13.9)
FDP 13.3 (+4.3)
Greens 10.7 (+3.3)
Left 8.6 (+4.3)
Pirates 2.0
NPD 1.2 (0)

CDU 16 (+12), SPD 14 (-11). State gained a seat. Which was a notional CDU gain, too.

SPD holds Freiburg by about 4%.

Left wins Magdeburg.

I don't suppose Jörg Tauss (the SPD turned Pirate alleged child pornographer) ran for re-election, did he?

Current count in Brandenburg:

SPD     251.383    32,8 %
DIE LINKE    211.388    27,6 %
CDU    148.711    19,4 %
DVU    9.359    1,2 %
GRÜNE/B 90    42.509    5,6 %
FDP    54.339    7,1 %
NPD 2.7%, FW 1.7% (list vote.)

Schleswig-Holstein site does not present results in any informative way. Might once constituencies start rolling in. Which might be very soon.

Random Question: In the Ex-DDR are there distinguishing sociological/economic/etc differences between an average SDP and an average LINKE voter?

Didn't.

Baden Württemberg
turnout 72.4 (-6.3)
CDU 34.5 (-4.8)
SPD 19.3 (-10.8)
FDP 18.8 (+6.9)
Greens 13.9 (+3.2)
Left 7.2 (+3.4)
Pirates 2.1
NPD 1.1 (0)

CDU wins all seats but one. SPD had won four seats last time around. State gained a seat, too.

Btw, SPD came third in the list vote in Freiburg. :D

Berlin starting to come in. First constituency result from the Schleswig-Holstein Landtag.

Neumünster. A CDU gain.

Is there some place to watch coverage in English? :)

Yes Don, this thread. :D

Black-Black-Yellow drops below 50% of the vote.

SPD have conceded the election.

SPD lose a load of seats in Berlin

SPD loses Pankow to the Left, outer West Berlin seats to the CDU, manages to hold on to Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf (not self evident, that one.) Ströbele's direct vote up to 46.8%, almost a thirty-point lead. Greens also win the list vote, just by 2 points though. Left in second place in either.

We do not answer the random questions of Irishmen, unless it is easy to do so.

While the SPD is ahead by almost 6 points in the list vote in Brandenburg State, she is tied in the constituency vote, trailing the Left by 1.odd in the Bundestag constituency vote, and by almost four points in the Bundestag list vote. (Results not strictly comparable as Bundestag count is closer to completion.)

McPomm

turnout 63.1 (-8.2)
CDU 33.2 (+3.6)
Left 29.0 (+5.3)
SPD 16.6 (-15.2)
FDP 9.8 (+3.6)
Greens 5.5 (+1.5)
NPD 3.3 (-0.2)
Pirates 2.3

CDU 6 (+3), Left 1 (+1), SPD 0 (-4). Left just barely loses out in Neubrandenburg etc by 0.2, that would have made the CDU's first loss of the night otherwise.

You know what? The remainder of this stuff can wait until tomorrow night.

How are overhang mandates member-specific? If an overhang member leaves the Bundestag, is the constituency simply unrepresented?

Yes. Although individual members are not designated "overhang members" I suppose.

Results for Cologne seats aren't up on the federal thing, but are on the Cologne website. SPD win I, III and IV & Leverkusen, CDU win II.

Steinmeier wins in (wait for it) Brandenburg an der Havel - Potsdam-Mittelmark I - Havelland III - Teltow-Fläming I. Not by a great deal, but the SPD trailed on the list vote.

SPD wins 3 seats in Hamburg, CDU wins the remaining 3.

Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg-Prenzlauer Berg Ost is certainly an interesting district.

It's the district where Greens (27.4%) and Pirate Party (6.0%) were the strongest and CDU (11.9%) and FDP (6.1%) were the weakest in all of Germany.

()

Frankfurt maps. Did quite quickly due to possible loss of internet soonish - some minor errors possible.

Al the maps are great!  Soo... when can we expect the others? :)

My impression is that Berlin used to be a place of draft dodgers and surreal politics. Is it becoming a true capital?  What does it mean?

West Berlin is like any other Western European city, but the old Commies do exceedingly well in East Berlin (and East Germany in general, really). The Greens hold a constituency crossing the East/West border.

Official preliminary result as reported by the Federal Returning Officer at 3:35 am:

CDU/CSU: 33.8%
FDP: 14.6%

SPD: 23.0%
Greens: 10.7%
Left: 11.9%

Now:

()

()

()

()

()

()

()

()

Seats:

CDU/CSU: 239 (+13)
FDP: 93 (+32)

SPD: 146 (-76)
Greens: 68 (+17)
Left: 76 (+22)

---

CDU/CSU/FDP: 332/622 = 53.4%
SPD/Green/Left: 290/622 = 46.6%

Leading Party in every Constituency (List Vote):

()

Source: www.election.de

I think it's time to consider building the wall again ;)

Final results for the 2 state elections:

Schleswig-Holstein:

CDU: 31.5% (-8.6%, 34 seats)
SPD: 25.4% (-13.2%, 25 seats)
FDP: 14.9% (+8.3%, 15 seats)
Greens: 12.4% (+6.2%, 12 seats)
Left: 6.0% (+5.2%, 5 seats)
SSW: 4.3% (+0.7%, 4 seats)
Pirates: 1.8% (+1.8%)
FW: 1.0% (+1.0%)
Others: 2.7%

CDU/FDP: 46.4% (49 seats)
SPD/Greens/Left/SSW: 48.1% (46 seats)

Brandenburg:

SPD: 33.0% (+1.1%, 31 seats)
Left: 27.2% (-0.8%, 26 seats)
CDU: 19.8% (+0.4%, 19 seats)
FDP: 7.2% (+3.9%, 7 seats)
Greens: 5.6% (+2.0%, 5 seats)
3 Nazis: 3.9% (-2.2%)
FW: 1.7% (+1.7%)
Others: 1.6%

Probably a Grand-Coalition between SPD and CDU.

Best result for SSV since the 50'ties - and a return of the Meyer family to the Landestag. The SSV president Flemming Meyer, the son of Karl Otto Meyer, who held SSV's sole mandate from the 70'ties until '96, is elected :) - That said, what a s... electoral system S-H uses. A 3 mandates majority with 1,7 %-points less.

Anybody like to make a map of SSV's 1th and 2nd votes? That would be great

Is Stuttgart suburbia in Baden-Wurttemburg that large and wealthy?

Somebody also explain what's up with FDP support in the Rhineland-Palatinate. I don't recall there being any wealthy suburbia or cities in those areas it does well in.

If you cut out where they did well, what you're left with is West Germany ca. 1949. The Saar interests me. Is it Lafontaine?

Yes!

Der Stern has a nice interactive constituency map: http://www.stern.de/wahl-2009/wahl-2009-alle-zwischenergebnisse-der-wahlkreise-1511244.html

When's the last time a third party (not counting the CSU) won as many constituency seats as The Left did yesterday?

The FDP won a bunch of direct seats in northern Hesse in 1949-1953 or so. Maybe the DP won a few in 1949, though not 16 iirc.

In 1953, the FDP won 14 direct seats, the German Party won 11 direct seats, and the Centre Party won a single seat.

1949: FDP 12, Bavaria Party 11, German Party 5.

That's closest thing to the Left's direct seats in 2009.

The leader of the FDP is gay? How progressive.

It's a non-issue though.

Are there/have there been any other major German political figures who have been openly gay?

The SPD mayor of Berlin is also openly gay. He may be party leader or chancellor candidate one of these days. He's certainly part of the left-wing of the party, however.

Take this purchasing power map of Germany into context:

()

Yes, the Stuttgart area is really well off. Also notice the region around Munich with the district Starnberg having the highest purchasing power in Germany, the Main-Taunus area north-west of Frankfurt, Southern NRW and the region around Hamburg.

The region is western Rhineland with the high FDP-share is probably due to the proximity of Luxembourg. Many people commute there to work in the financial and insurance sector I guess.

Klaus Wowereit (SPD), Mayor of Berlin

Ole von Beust (CDU), Mayor of Hamburg

Volker Beck (Greens), Green party whip in the Bundestag

Klaus Lederer (The Left), The Left's state chairman in Berlin

Anja Hajduk (Greens), Minister of City Development and Environment of Hamburg

Karin Wolff (CDU), Minister of Education of Hesse


Those are the most important ones, I guess. I would only call the first three "major" though.

Traditionally, vintners on the Mosel have been voting FDP.

Remaining state results:

Schleswig-Holstein
turnout 73.8
CDU 32.2, SPD 26.8, FDP 16.3, Greens 12.7, Left 7.9, Pirates 2.1, NPD 1.0
Hamburg
turnout 71.1
CDU 27.9, SPD 27.5, Greens 15.6, FDP 13.2, Left 11.2, Pirates 2.6
Bremen
turnout 70.1
SPD 30.3, CDU 23.9, Greens 15.4, Left 14.2, FDP 10.6, Pirates 2.4, NPD 1.1
Brandenburg
turnout 67.1
Left 28.5, SPD 25.1, CDU 23.6, FDP 9.3, Greens 6.1, NPD 2.6, Pirates 2.5
Saxony Anhalt
turnout 60.5 :o
Left 32.4, CDU 30.1, SPD 16.9, FDP 10.3, Greens 5.1, Pirates 2.4, NPD 2.2
Berlin
turnout 70.9
CDU 22.8, Left 20.2, SPD 20.2, Greens 17.4, FDP 11.5, Pirates 3.4, NPD 1.6, Animals 1.4
NRW
turnout 71.4
CDU 33.1, SPD 28.5, FDP 14.9, Greens 10.1, Left 8.4, Pirates 1.7

Some sidenotes:
Overhang seats were, for the CDU: 1 in Schleswig-Holstein, 2 in Mecklenburg Lower Pomerania, 4 in Saxony, 1 Thuringia, 2 in Rhineland Pfalz, 1 on the Saar and 10 in Baden Württemberg. For the CSU: 3 in (duh) Bavaria. For the SPD: none.
CDU in Hesse, and SPD in Bremen (not that it matters here) and Brandenburg got the worst of both worlds - no overhang, but no extra seats to distribute via the list either.

All five parties (counting the Union as one) won seats in every state. Even the Bremen FDP.

Greens above five % in every Eastern state - w00t.

The switch to Ste Lague actually mattered, and in the first, by party, distribution too (someone would need to do the math to see if it also affected by state distribution), costing the SPD a seat which (would have) went to the CSU (except it just meant one fewer overhang seat for them).

Brandenburg, left actually won 22 direct Landtag seats to the SPD's 18 and the CDU's four. No overhang.

Schleswig-Holstein is all a matter of interpretation. Depending on what a phrase is supposed to refer to, there are two possible interpretations of the law. One gives a proportional distribution of
CDU 34, SPD 28, FDP 16, Greens 13, Left 6, SSW 4.
The other gives a hilariously non-proportional distribution of
CDU 34, SPD 23, FDP 14, Greens 11, Left 5, SSW 4
The Landeswahlleiterin chose to come up with her own interpretation that basically manages to use both interpretations at once, and pronounced
CDU 34, SPD 25, FDP 15, Greens 12, Left 5, SSW 4
to be the result.

Proportional result with the ordinary size of parliament would have been
CDU 23, SPD 19, FDP 11, Greens 9, Left 4, SSW 3.
CDU won 34 of the 40 direct seats - all but all three in Kiel and all three in Lübeck.

Theoretically, the interpretation used could yet change at the final proclamation, done by a body called the Landeswahlausschuss, where CDU+FDP are one vote shy of a majority. However, the SSW (one member there) has announced they'll accept the result. Whatever the Landeswahllausschuss decides may then end up in court - not only on whether it's a possible interpretation of the law (certainly true for interpretations one and two, rather dubious on interpretation three), but on whether it's constitutional, too. This question, too, is less than clearcut (for interpretations two and three, not interpretation one) though I'd lean to saying "no". All registered voters have standing to sue, so it's not as if the decision were up to the opposition parties alone.

It gets worse: The CDU-CSU-FDP federal coalition has a majority in the upper "chamber", the Bundesrat, only if Black-Yellow governs in Schleswig-Holstein.
And lol at BILD, btw. They (Frankfurt edition) tried to make it appear as if Carstensen had won
fair and square, though very narrowly, by simply not mentioning the existence of the SSW at all.

Why doesn't the FDP win any direct seats? Do they not bother trying?

Well first of all, what purpose would it have? It's not like it would increase their total number of seats. Why should the FDP invest specifically in order to win a couple of districts?

But the Greens only won 1 seat as well, and that's only because that candidate is massively popular in her Berlin district.

Most voters choose between CDU and SPD tactically, as it's FPTP for those seats.

Many FDP voters give the first vote to the CDU/CSU candidate and the FDP have no extrem strongholds. The Left is in East Germany very strong and the Greens have their strongholds in big cities, like Berlin.

I'm just surprised that out of all of Germany, the FDP has no areas that they have a concentration enough that they win direct seats.

Why? Tradition?


Their vote is more spread out compared to the Left or even Greenies, and their strongest areas are also normally very strong CDU-CSU.

They almost certainly could if they tried. Seats where the CDU is in first and the FDP is in second would easily vote FDP if the FDP made an effort. But doing so would only hurt the CDU-FDP coalition as it would mean fewer CDU overhang seats with no increase in seats for the FDP. There's just no reason for smaller parties to seek local seats at all.

I'm wondering if anyone has a link to a source with a full list of all the little parties that ran and their percentage of the vote. Most sources just show about 6% for sonstige and I'd like to know the ideoligical breakdown of that vote (I'm guessing Pirates and NDP are the biggest of the others).

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/bundesergebnisse/index.html

Of course, if the percentage change were to somehow be the same for 2013 as this time, the FDP would be the second largest party.

---

How did Vera Lengsfield do?  Did the voters agree that she had more to offer?

---

How much would the results change if the 5% threshold were applied at the State level instead of the Federal level?

Vera Lengsfeld got 11.6%. The worst result in Germany for the CDU.

Did she ever have a chance in her constituency, or did making a clean breast of things with her campaign poster hurt her chances?

Her constituency was the only one won by a Green in the first vote (direct member election). From what I can tell it may be one of the, if not the, most liberal district in all of Germany. So she never really had a chance.

Why would she have a chance in that constituency?

It's probably one of the most left-wing districts in all of Europe. :D

her only chance probably consisted in hurting the CDU enough to prevent it from winning any direct seats in the city. (Alternatively, she never had one- I'd have to check her position on the list.)

Uh, how? Not only is the gap pretty damn large in all of them*, a quarter to a third of the FDP list voters (very conservative estimate. Used to be an actual majority, back in the 90s) are tactical voters who if pressed prefer the CDU to the FDP, and at least two thirds of the macro-left voters, if forced to choose, would chose the CDU candidate over the FDP as currently branded. It is not a liberal party. It's a secular conservative party. Think Hoyre, not LD, not (norwegian) Venstre. That's in terms of policy - in terms of style, think Fremskritt.

The FDP could win - does win, on current results - some inner city high wealth enclaves with 30% of the vote over splintered opposition, but nothing close to 1/10 the size of a Bundestag constituency. It won the day votes in Frankfurt's West End, where eleven of its nineteen precinct wins were located.

*there are more of them than I thought at first glance. All but three are in Bavaria or Baden Württemberg, of course.

The coverage I had seen on her didn't mention anything about her electoral chances or the composition of her constituency, which is why I asked.

Presuming that my nice new internet connection stays, later today, maybe. Or early tomorrow.

Here's a good overview chart of the results:

()

What does the chart on the right hand side with the arrows pointing in and away from the various boxes mean?

It´s the so called "Wählerstromanalyse" (Electoral Flow Analysis). It shows how many voters each party gained or lost from another party or from non-voters compared with the 2005 elections.

And how can you guys tell that? Exit polling?

It`s complicated and only an estimate. SORA, which does this stuff here in Austria explains it in English:

How does the analysis of voter transitions work?

The voter transition analysis works without questioning individuals. Only aggregated data as election results of municipalities, communities, wards, etc. are used. Statistical correlations generated from these results allow predictions for possible electoral behaviour.

The idea is a simple one: if a party gains most votes in those municipalities in which another party had the most votes at the election before, it is interpreted as a vote transition between those parties.

This method is called multiple regression: "Regression" because we trace back the parties' results of the current election to the parties' results of the comparable election, and "Multiple" because we relate a party's current election result to the results of all parties of the comparable election.

The equation of voter transition analysis from the national election 1995 to the national election 1999 would look like this:

ÖVP04 = b1 × SPÖ99 + b2 × ÖVP99 + b3 × FPÖ99 + b4 × LIF99 + b5 × Greens99 + b6 × others99 + b7 × non voters99

http://www.sora.at/en/start.asp?b=266

I noticed that among the smaller parties (those below 5%) most of their voters didn't give them many first (constituency votes) but only the more important  (assuming they won more than 5% of course) second vote.  However, the NDP actually won more first than second votes.  If many NDP voters had done like most small party voters and given a bigger party their first vote, and assuming the majority of them voted for the CSU CDU perhaps the CDU could have won even more overhang mandates.

I guess it's unlikely that many members of the NPD's hardcore voter base would vote for a CDU candidate. To them, the CDU consists of Jew-loving, pro-American traitors. And there's only one punishment for treason: death. But you don't vote for them. You don't vote for someone and then execute him. Wouldn't make sense.

As far as the more casual NPD voter is concerned... they could perhaps vote for a CDU candidate. Or maybe a LINKE candidate, considering that those are most likely anti-establishment, anti-mainstream protest voters.

()

Map shows the lead of the leading party (direct vote). Standard key (ie; 0, 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 25, 33, 45). Mistakes possible - please point any out if seen so changes can be made.

<3 Al

Wow, Saxony stands out, it's almost as blue as Bavaria. Why is it so much more conservative than the other ex-DDR states?

Saxony is not more conservative, it's more pro-CDU.

Saxony was dominated by popular minister-president Kurt Biedenkopf from 1990 to 2002. During this time, the CDU won three consecutive absolute majorities and was able to govern without any coalition partner. During this period of extreme CDU dominance (for a large part a result of Biedenkopf's popularity), the SPD was never able to gain any foothold in Saxony. And now it's too late for it. The fact that current minister-president Stanislaw Tillich is also quite popular, doesn't help eieither.

Others can explain better than I can (I think it has something to do with political developments in the first few years after the fall of the SED and with strong CDU governments at state level. Or something like that), but for now, note that the CDU polled at the national average for the direct vote seats and only slightly better on the PR vote. The party-lead thing flatters the CDU a lot in Saxony.

Edit: and someone who knows far more about it, explains things :)

What would the results be if all the left parties and all the right parties ran together?

First we have to define what is "left" and what is "right":

Left: SPD, Left, Greens, Pirates, ARP

Right: CDU/CSU, FDP, NPD, REP, DVU

Don't know what to do with the ÖDP, the conservative Bavarian version of the Greens. They are probably completely "center".

Anway, with the above classification you get the following numbers for Germany:

Right: 50.4%
Left: 48.1%

That's about right. I'm more interested in constituency numbers, actually.

Here you have all the constituency results in English. Just add the numbers up if you like:

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/en/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_09/ergebnisse/wahlkreisergebnisse/

(will take a while) ... ;)

Here are the results for the States.

Right = CDU/CSU-FDP
Left = SPD-Linke-Grüne

I don't count the results of the small parties. The Piraten is maybe a left party (in my predict the get 4 second votes and all with the Greens as first vote ;)), but they change no State. The NPD, Republikaner and DVU are far-right parties and i don't think we can count them to the right. NPD and FDP have nothing in common.

Schleswig-Holstein Right 48,5, Left 47,4
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Right 43,0, Left 51,1
Hamburg Right 41,1, Left 54,2
Niedersachsen Right 46,5, Left 48,6
Bremen Right 34,8, Left 59,9
Brandenburg Right 32,9, Left 59,7
Sachsen-Anhalt Right 40,4, Left 54,4
Berlin Right 40,4, Left 54,4
Nordrhein-Westfalen Right 48,0, Left 47,0
Sachsen Right 48,9, Left 45,8
Hessen Right 48,8, Left 46,1
Thüringen Right 41,0, Left 52,4
Rheinland-Pfalz Right 51,6, Left 42,9
Bayern Right 57,3, Left 34,1
Baden-Württemberg Right 53,2, Left 40,4
Saarland Right 42,8, Left 52,4

You can't really count the NPD as "right wing" in the way we'd count the CDU as right wing. The CDU is a democratic party and the NPD is a totalitarian party. At least 90+% of all CDU voters would rather vote for the SPD than for the NPD. Hell, a clear majority of CDU voters would probably prefer the Left Party over the NPD (if forced to choose).

That's like combining the vote totals of FDR and Stalin ("left wing") on one hand and the vote totals of Winston Chuchill and Adolf Hitler ("right wing") on the other hand in an effort to compare both sums with each other.

I had a look over changes in registered voters numbers... pretty fascinating.

Federally +0.4

High growth states:
Schleswig-Holstein +1.4
2%+ gains in Kiel +3.1, Pinneberg +2.3, Segeberg - Stormarn N +2.1. Decline in Steinburg - Dithmarschen S

Hamburg +2.1
2%+ gains in Mitte +3.2, Eimsbüttel +2.4. No declines.

Berlin +1.3
2%+ gains in Treptow-Köpenick +3.6, Pankow +3.4, Friedrichshain etc +3.4, Mitte +2.6. Declines in Reinickendorf, Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf, Tempelhof-Schöneberg

Bavaria +1.5
2%+ gains in Erlangen +2.5, Nuremberg N +3.3, Regensburg +2.8, anywhere in Upper Bavaria not near the Inn or the Alps (Munich rural +2.8, Fürstenfeldbruck +2.4, Freising +3.0, Ingolstadt +2.3, Erding-Ebersberg a whopping +4.5) but especially - biggest nationally - in Munich herself: E +5.3, S +5.5, W +6.5, N +8.9!
Declines in Hof, Weiden, Bayreuth, Kulmbach, Bad Kissingen (but not Coburg) with Hof at -3.1% and the others below -2%.

Baden-Württemberg +1.3
Can't make out heads or tails on that one, except that South Baden is growing: Freiburg +2.7, Lörrach +2.2, Emmendingen +2.1, Konstanz +2.2 joined by Stuttgart S +2.9, Neckar-Zaber +2.5, Karlsruhe City +2.3, Tübingen topping the list at +3.9. Upper Swabia region that had four seats formed out of three grew 1.9% across the region, so presumably includes areas at over 2 as well. Meanwhile, declines in Mannheim, Karlsruhe Rural, Göppingen, Aalen-Heidenheim, Schwarzwald-Baar. Wth?

Averageish States
Lower Saxony +0.5
Declines across the nonmetropolitan Southeast, worst in Goslar etc -2.8 and Salzgitter-Wolfenbüttel -2.2, with Göttingen, Hildesheim, Hameln etc, Nienburg-Schaumburg, Helmstedt-Wolfsburg and Celle-Uelzen (but not Brunswick or Gifhorn-Peine) also posting declines. So does Friesland-Wilhelmshaven. 2%+ gains in Cloppenburg-Vechta +3.0 and Oldenburg +2.6
Six-out-of-five region in the northeast grew 1.2%.

Bremen +0.3
East up 1.3, West - Bremerhaven down 0.8

NRW +0.2
33 of the 64 seats posting declines, 32 of them forming a solid yin-and-yang-ish southeastern half of the state that begins at Oberbergischer Kreis, Solingen-Remscheid, Mettmann, Duisburg, Oberhausen, Recklinghausen, Hamm inclusive; Soest and Paderborn exclusive, Bielefeld inclusive. The 33rd is Mönchengladbach.
2%+ declines only in Gelsenkirchen -3.1 and Duisburg N -2.4
2%+ increases much more common, in Paderborn +2.4, Münster +3.0, Coesfeld +2.1, Steinfurt   III +2.1, Borken II +2.4, Rhein-Sieg NE +2.2, Bonn +3.1, Cologne III +2.6 with Cologne II topping the list at +4.3

Hesse +0.7
Big increases in Frankfurt (W +3.1, E +4.1). Declines in Waldeck, Schwalm-Eder and especially Werra etc -2.4

Rhineland-Pfalz +0.6
Declines in Neuwied, Bitburg, Mosel etc, Kreuznach, Pirmasens. Big gains in Mainz +2.9, S Pfalz +2.1 and especially Luxembourg Outer Trier +3.3

Declining States
Saarland -1.2
Homburg worst at -1.8, Saarlouis best at -0.7

Mecklenburg -1.4
Rostock up, and up by 2.4. Biggest declines in Neubrandenburg etc -3.7 followed by N Lower Pomerania -2.2

Brandenburg -0.2
Berlin suburbia growing, remainder decaying. Border change between Potsdam etc (which was getting to be too big) and Dahme-Spreewald, these two together grew by 3.4. Oberhavel up 3.9, Märkisch Oderland up 2.7.
OTOH, Prignitz down 3.0, Uckermark down 3.2, Cottbus down 3.3, Elbe-Elster down a whopping 5.1. Brandenburg down 2.1, Frankfurt (Oder) the only constituency within plus to minus 2 at -1.7 (Actually, I'm pretty sure Dahme-Spreewald is within that corridor as well, but producing an exact figure would be too much like work.)

Saxony -1.2
Double whammy of loss of one seat and district reform means seven constituencies remain unchanged (though the rural ones had name changes) and the remainder is all part of one big seat loss area.
Of these seven though, Dresden S up 5.2, Leipzig S up 5.0, Leipzig N up 2.7, while Vogtland down 3.6. Chemnitz, Leipzig rural,  Sächsische Schweiz - whatever at 1.odd declines.

States in final stage of occupation by humans
Thuringia -2.3
Erfurt-Weimar up a bit. Gera-Jena and (just barely) Gotha-Ilm down less than 2 points. Biggest declines in Greiz-Altenburg -4.4, Sonneberg etc -3.5, Kyffhäuser etc -3.2, Suhl etc -3.1. Eisenach etc at -2.5, Eichsfeld at just worse than -2.0.

Saxony-Anhalt -2.9
Again, double whammy of new districts and loss of a seat. Altmark is the only unchanged constituency at -3.1.

This decline is not surprising. In upperfranconia and especially in the region Hof will be the time comes soon, the lights go out forever :(. The Bavarian government does nothing for us and you get only a few kilometers further in Saxony and Thuringia for a company gives many times more subvention than in my region. Alone in the porcelain industries have been lost over 10,000 jobs in recent years. Who has the opinion in Bavaria everything would be better, come to Hof or Wunsiedel and convince yourself what a bad regional policy is.

I'll be doing constituency maps for the five major parties (list vote - probably CDU and FDP on one set, SPD, Left, Green on the next) and then other stuff. Including Left-Right.

Btw, if there are any other breakdowns for individual cities and so on I'll be happy to do those also. And also if there's postal-precinct stuff for Frankfurt again - I had fun last time I did that.

Edit: yeah, might do some more direct-vote maps as well, but not for a while.

Frankfurt reduced the number of precincts while you were sleeping ill (ie, testrunning the new larger precincts for the Euros.) At least they kept the naming scheme. That means I'm not in all cases sure where the postal precincts are right now.
At least I got them to give me a huge printout map of the city with the new day voting precincts that is not for public sale!

What other cities might you be happiest to do?

()

That was dastardly of them. Bah.


;D

Just about anywhere, I think. Though larger ones first.

FDP map is opposite of PDS map.

What's with the pattern of FDP support in Schleswig-Holstein?

Presumably some of it is a Hamburg suburbia thing.

It extends quite far, if that's the case.

It was just a guess. And electoral patterns can have multiple causes - the reasons for FDP strength in southern Holstein might be different to elsewhere in the state. But guesses can be very wrong, so...

And Pinneberg would have to be darker.

I'd say it's got a lot to do with the overlap of state and federal elections, the deserved unpopularity (no, that's not quite right. People think he's a nice enough guy, just out of his depth in his current job.) of one Mr Carstensen, and the undeserved popularity of one Jürgen Kubicki (strongman of the Schleswig-Holstein FDP, old Möllemann buddy, utterly unscrupulous populist, very good at attacking the CDU from the Left, Right, and Center at once). And perhaps with affluence and protestantism.

Hamburg?

Stadtteile results (excluding postals) from page 18 (http://www.hamburg.de/contentblob/1805398/data/2009-09-28-bfi-pm-bundestagswahlergebnis-pdf-2.pdf)

You hopefully still have your old map template. ;D

Just in case:

()

Surely "old Möllemann buddy" and "utterly unscrupulous populist" mean the same thing ;D

The left parties by constituency set will be up either later tonight or at some point tomorrow morning/early afternoon, btw.


Yeah, Hamburg will do. Might be interesting to see the differences between the last City State elections there.

Munich and Berlin would be fun. The latter especially.

Berlin is difficult. No readily recognized units between boroughs and precincts. There are the former boroughs of course, which everybody recognizes, but are not officially recognized units. There are the Stadtteile, statistical entities that are mostly  little known (where they are different from the former boroughs) but quite well recognized in suburban Berlin, but I've never seen a result compiled by them. I actually tried to do approximate ones myself once. I suppose it would be possible to do a map by the city council constituencies.

(checks) Indeed it would. Results on page 50ff, and a map of that type but with far too few different shades on page 87 (http://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/bundestagswahl-2009/ergebnis/bericht/WB_BT_BEvM.pdf)

()

Bigger version in the gallery

The Greens look like more of a national party from that map than the SPD does.

The Greens are an urban party.

The Greens also have this pattern (usually. Certain exceptions last year come to mind) of less regional deviation when they do well. The reason should be obvious.

http://wahlen.stadt-koeln.de/bundestagswahl/2009/wahlpraesentation/index.html

Cologne o/c.

(Normalcy restored in Sürth btw as the Greens come fourth, though on 20% of the vote.)

Personally I find it somewhat ironic that the bulk of The Left's support should come from former East Germany.

That's odd. Other people just find it "ironic" (usually they just mean displeasing to them) that the fall of the wall has allowed the Commies to regain a footing in the west.

As far as the Greenies go, I'm always mildly surprised at how well they do in parts of Württemberg.

Oh aye. Pattern goes back all the way to 1980.

Is there any reason for it, or is it just one of those odd patterns that happen (almost) just because they do?

Btw, have started on the Hamburg set.

Just because some explanations have been attempted doesn't necessarily mean they explain things. :D

Little oddities I've been thinking about trying to understand but never have gotten around to, chapter 37

Why does Pforzheim city vote a little less "urban" than the surrounding district?

This year's results:
Pforzheim CDU 35.9, SPD 20.3, FDP 18.6, Greens 10.2, Left 8.8
Enzkreis CDU 33.8, FDP 20.2, SPD 19.9, Greens 12.1, Left 6.7

Alright, so the Left result doesn't look odd.

()

Note that while the CDU narrowly led on the list vote overall, they didn't if postals aren't included and postals aren't included in the figures used to make these maps. Bigger version here. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=1994)

For comparision (though note that the values of the colours are different) the results of the 2008 elections in the city. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view;id=593)

And, yes, the Left did win a Stadtteil.

Which has next to no people in it. But a lot of warehouses and port facilities.

(Left also won a precinct in Frankfurt, and not really where you'd expect it. And at least two Saar municipalities - didn't check everything, and didn't check for the reason of trying to find Left wins, either.)

Normalcy restored for the Green map. Well, sort of. Too low compared to the national result (same goes for Frankfurt. Same reason, too. Wonder how many millennia it'll take the media to take note.)
Eimsbüttel looks weird with all those narrow SPD wins in the outer part of the borough - the posh bits by the Außenalster stand out much more thanks to that. (Though, predictably-but-not, they stand out best on the turnout map actually.)

What kind of place votes like that?

1854 valid votes, CDU 686, Greens 367, FDP 340, SPD 190, Left 145. And "The Violets - Party for Spiritual Politics" in seventh place (behind the Pirates) at 20 votes, or above one percent.

Herdwangen-Schönach. Place in white hidden under the big bold W here (http://www.bodenseekreis.de/typo3temp/pics/abeb4b1ef4.jpg).

Wiki throws up a company producing minesweepers, a church called "St Eulogius" and straddling the Rhine-Danube Continental Divide, and this (http://www.dorfgemeinschaft-lautenbach.de/dasdorf.html) place. The word "anthroposophisch" here probably explains a lot...

What's Pforzheim like?

Gee, I haven't been there for eighteen years.

Whoa.

CSU    66    25,00%
SPD    82    31,06%
FDP    19    7,20%
GRÜNE    13    4,92%
DIE LINKE    48    18,18%

Stadlern. One of two municipalities in Schwandorf district (in the Oberpfalz) to be carried by the SPD. Turnout of 59%. I'm not sure whether this result (or even the eligible voters number) includes postal voters.

Working on the Cologne map now - or to be more accurate, looking through results in certain areas to work out the keys. Anyway. The FDP percentage in one posh urban area. Wow.

()

There were two ties. Not sure how well the somewhat-purple-ish-offwhite-shade chosen for ties here shows up well, but I don't like doing the stripes thing.

And Delbrück and Holweide switch sides compared to the locals.

Munich (http://www.mstatistik-muenchen.de/themen/wahlen/wahlberichterstattung/btw2009/wahlanalyse/zweitstimmen/btw_z_sb_ueb.pdf)

()

Though as a matter of fact, shaded party maps are already available by borough or precinct.
There's no turnout map and their winner map is unshaded, so that might be worthwhile endeavours.

()

()

()

()

()

That last map has changed a fair bit compared to 2005. Munich 2005 for the Left still looked a lot like the old West German PDS.

My apologies. There is a turnout map.

()

All of these also available by precinct, btw.

Wiesbaden (http://www.wiesbaden.de/wahldaten/wahlweb/Wahldatenbank/bw2009/java/obz2/index.html)

Darmstadt (http://www.darmstadt.de//wahlergebnis/BW/2009/BW09186DALS/BW09186DALS/index.html) (navigate via Darstellungsbereich, using the "gesamt" results)

Dortmund (http://dev.statistik.dortmund.de/upload/binarydata_do4ud4cms/11/84/19/00/00/00/198411/Wahlkurzbericht_-_Bundestagswahl_2009.pdf) (page 8 of pdf has boroughs and local constituencies. A borough map is on page four, while a map of the constituencies is on page 2 of this (http://dev.statistik.dortmund.de/upload/binarydata_do4ud4cms/70/67/18/00/00/00/186770/wahlvorbericht.pdf).

Offenbach'll require some basic math to present even without postals. I might do that later tonight, actually. Kassel webpage is once again wholly uninformative.

Offenbach
Format is turnout SPD-CDU-FDP-Greens-Left. Remember that turnout is day voters by eligible voters, just as party strength is day vote only.

11 43.4 27.7-16.6-12.3-17.9-16.6
12 44.8 27.5-21.1-  9.8-17.3-15.7
13 46.3 27.4-20.5-  9.4-18.1-17.0
14 48.0 22.7-20.1-15.8-17.2-15.2
15 49.6 21.2-21.8-17.8-18.4-14.2
16 46.8 26.1-20.0-12.9-17.7-15.4
21 47.4 24.5-20.5-13.0-21.3-13.4
22 49.8 25.9-29.6-14.1-  9.6-13.4
23 52.0 25.6-23.1-11.2-18.0-14.6
24 51.6 26.4-24.2-13.8-13.9-13.9
25 49.7 25.4-26.8-14.7-13.2-12.7
26 56.1 26.6-22.2-16.1-15.5-11.8
31 53.6 24.9-28.0-14.1-12.3-12.3
32 56.6 28.2-26.1-14.7-11.5-12.3
33 57.9 22.8-33.9-16.6-10.3-  9.3
41 43.1 34.3-24.7-  9.2-  7.4-12.7
42 68.0 20.2-29.4-21.0-17.2-  6.9
43 58.2 21.6-31.5-17.4-12.6-  9.5
44 60.4 20.7-32.6-18.8-15.1-  7.5

Left result across the city proper is hilariously uniform. That 68.0 for turnout in Waldheim ain't no misprint. Remember that 33, 43 and 22 are the largest individual units here before you marvel at the sea of red.
Day votes, total: Turnout 52.3, CDU 27.1, SPD 24.5, FDP 14.9, Greens 14.0, Left 12.3
Versus Postals: CDU 34.4, SPD 20.9, FDP 16.3, Greens 13.8, Left 9.1
for a total of: Turnout 66.1, CDU 28.6, SPD 23.8, FDP 15.2, Greens 14.0, Left 11.6

Essen (http://www.essen.de/Wahlen/Ergebnisse/BW-2009/STT/Zweitstimme/Javascript/ergebnisse.htm#) by neighborhood,  map (http://lexikon.freenet.de/images/de/thumb/7/79/Essen_Stadtteile_und_Stadtbezirke.svg/300px-Essen_Stadtteile_und_Stadtbezirke.svg.png)

Duisburg (http://wahl-server.krzn.de/bw2009/wep020/) by borough or constituency, borough map (http://www.duisburg.de/micro2/konjunkturpaket/medien/img/stadtbezirke_gesamt.jpg) will do as the only constituency map I've found (didn't spend that long at it) is superimposed on a street map and thus a huge pdf.

Düsseldorf only has precinct and city results up (well, and the two Bundestag constituencies. Not worth much.) And not even a readily apparent way to calculate higher-level results yourself. Probably will have to wait until the next statistical yearbook or something - I know I've found old borough results for Düsseldorf in the past.

Hanover (http://www.hannover.de/data/download/lhh/buerger/StuWahl/btw2009/Kapitel3.pdf) by neighborhood. Pdf basically has our maps already. I think a shaded winner map is missing, though.

Bremen (http://landeswahlleiter.bremen.de/sixcms/detail.php?gsid=bremen192.c.2122.de) maps. I love their category of "neighborhood not classified - under 1000 inhabitants". Raw data for any of the state's four tiers (including the two cities) be here (http://www.wahlen-bremen.de/internet/javascript/btw09_stadt_hb_zweitstimme/index.html).

Leipzig  (http://www.leipzig.de/de/buerger/politik/wahlen/bundestag/2009/14300_otrel2.shtml) by neighborhood. I dunno, I would prefer a borough (http://www.leipzig.de/imperia/md/images/12_statistik-und-wahlen/wahlen/btwk2009.gif) map here, but there you go. I hope this Neighborhood map (http://http://www.victor-immobilien.de/html/stadtteile.html) is up to date. It's not an official source (as you can see.) There seems to be an issue at Grünau. In case someone (me perhaps? Would have to be next weekend) wants to go to the trouble, this (http://www.leipzig-info.net/stadtplan/) identifies which neighborhoods belong to which borough. So does this overtly huge wiki map (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fa/Verwaltung_Leipzig.svg) which also clarifies things in Grünau.

Dresden (http://wahlen.dresden.de/2009BTW/btwzws/index.html) requires more work for the weekend. Link has precinct results, it just so happens that precincts are named by the neighborhoods they're in. Order of things seems to be day votes Dresden I, postals Dresden I in same order, day votes Dresden II, postals Dresden II. (And then municipalities outside the city but within Dresden II constituency.) map (http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kategorie:Statistischer_Stadtteil_(Dresden)) be here.

Nuremberg (http://www.wahlen.nuernberg.de/bt2009/ana/BtW2009_Nachtheft.pdf) by neighborhood. Results page 17, blank map page 18, loads of maps after that.

Stuttgart (http://www5.stuttgart.de/wahlen/wahl_h/bundestagswahl09/btw09_stadtbezirke_Z.html) by neighborhood. Map (http://www.stuttgart.de/stadtbezirke).

...and there goes what little free time I had left for the next week or so! :D

Any other places you're particularly interested in? ;D

Possibly... but I think I'll try and get through these first ;D

Just noticed that calculating these by borough could only be an approximation. We have the number of reg.d voters by neighborhood, but turnout and vote shares as percentages only. I think I'll pass.


working on it. noticed i'll need to combine some areas figure out what's combined in the map already. The descriptions in precinct names are more detailed. Certainly possible (that is , done) for Dresden I.

EDIT: Idiot me. This would have been easier if I'd looked at precinct numbers instead of precinct names. Oh well. At least I had everything right.

Düsseldorf is a shame because my brother lived there for a while and it'd have been fun to have spammed his email with maps ;D

()

Spot the former borough of Wedding!

Hint: Use the leading party map. (It actually extends into the two Green districts south of it too, though.)

The Central PDS Country is making the Green distribution look weird. And lol at leaving Kreuzberg SE-Stralau blank on the CDU map.

Details, details. I still laughed on finding out, anyway. ;D

Talking of which, quite how evenly distributed the Berlin SPD vote is seems a little strange - especially when compared to other large cities. And when looking at the patterns of the other parties in Berlin, obviously.



Presumably that area has a lot of DDR-era social housing?


;D

Hm? The constituencies got redrawn once since the district reform. The former borough boundaries were breached in that. The new Mitte had included seven constituencies before - two somewhat undersized ones each in Mitte proper and Tiergarten, three somewhat undersized ones in the Wedding. Add the area up, and it was closer to six seats than to seven. The southeastern Wedding seat basically got distributed among all its neighbors. So there's parts of the old Wedding in those two neighboring constituencies as well.

Not sure if social housing is the right word. Any new building project larger than two or three housing units in the DDR was by the state, basically. It's not that private homeownership or even private renting was illegal or anything, it's just that subsidized credit for it wasn't available at all, with inevitable results (read: decaying inner cities. That by the 80s and 90s often turned into artsy, if at least initially in a very downmarket way, enclaves).

The area were dealing with was bombed quite flat and thus has a lot of 50s and 60s government-built housing. Being centrally located and not of pisspoor quality, it's quite "desirable", in the low turnover sense of the word.

Hm? The constituencies got redrawn once since the district reform. The former borough boundaries were breached in that. The new Mitte had included seven constituencies before - two somewhat undersized ones each in Mitte proper and Tiergarten, three somewhat undersized ones in the Wedding. Add the area up, and it was closer to six seats than to seven. The southeastern Wedding seat basically got distributed among all its neighbors. So there's parts of the old Wedding in those two neighboring constituencies as well.[/quote]

I know. That's why I wrote "details, details". I don't care if it's strictly accurate - it's still hilarious ;D


Ah, alright. What sort of people live there?

The same people who lived there twenty years ago when the world was still whole and the wall was still standing, of course.

You know what?

Precinct maps from page 28 (http://www.wahlen-berlin.de/wahlen/europawahl-2009/strukturdaten/heft01.pdf)
Precinct results (http://www.berlin.de/wahlen/index.php/bundestagswahl-2009/ergebnis/downloads/download.htm)

I'm sure you can find yourself a map of the former boundaries and do the math (sans postals) yourself. ;D

Haha - I might do that at some point, yes.

With postals, actually. The list of which precincts are grouped for the postal precincts is at the end of the document with the precinct maps, and I seem to recall it's actually a law that precinct and postal precinct boundaries have to respect the Wall so that the Landeswahlleiter can continue to release East Berlin and West Berlin election results.

Offenbach:

()

I tried to find an explanation for the odd Coburg numbers (turnout below 70%, number of registered voters growing while population is declining).
The answer is very simple: Compared to the preliminary result the number of registered voters went down by 4,815 in the final result (No idea, how they made up the preliminary numbers). Hence we have Coburg at -1.0% with turnout about 71%.

()

Stuttgart. SPD nearly came fourth (though only just missed out on second).

()

Duisburg. I had fun modifying the outline map for this.

Edited for lolworthy error.

Some weird summing error presumably.

A note on the oddly shaped West Stuttgart Green borough: It's western half is uninhabited.

A note on Duisburg: Al can't read maps. That port area by the mouth of the Ruhr (Ruhrort, it's called) belongs to the borough facing it across the Rhine.

And Dresden's done, one more round, Dresden's done.

Notes: 33, 34 and 44 are uninhabited (or almost so. Wiki lists populations of 89, 43 and 20 or some redonkulous figures like that), not listed in the precinct list, and it's not clear where the few people voted. Best to leave blank. (33 is an industrial area and also includes the airport. 44 is a huge forested common. 34 is almost inaccessible heathland that used to be owned by the NVA.) 46 and 47 share a postal precinct and had to be aggregated, though it's not clear why they do so. Certainly more postal voters in either than in 01, say.
There were only four others on the ballot in Saxony - NPD, BüSo, MLPD and REP, and they got 2.6, 1.0, 0.2 and 0.2 of the vote in Dresden, respectively.

Format is turnout CDU-SPD-Left-FDP-Greens.

01 72.2 26.8-18.3-23.9-14.0-13.7
02 62.8 34.5-17.7-25.2-  9.6-  9.8
03 67.4 34.5-17.9-23.3-12.7-  8.3
04 66.8 32.4-17.5-28.7-  9.5-  7.8
05 52.8 25.7-14.1-22.3-15.0-17.4 must be one weird neighborhood.
06 65.9 28.2-18.6-23.5-11.7-14.5
07 68.7 35.6-16.4-28.1-10.0-  6.2
11 71.2 16.4-16.7-16.9-  9.2-39.1 yeah. Area feels much like Friedrichshain (non-bombed part of).
12 73.3 27.3-13.2-21.3-13.7-21.3 Greens in second.
13 71.7 26.7-17.3-23.9-10.8-19.3
14 68.0 19.7-15.1-22.3-10.5-29.4
15 59.6 30.3-11.8-23.7-11.3-18.8
21 59.1 26.6-13.5-22.0-14.2-20.2
22 60.1 33.3-13.6-23.1-15.2-  9.8
23 60.1 39.2-12.0-20.6-16.0-  6.2
24 71.0 34.0-15.0-22.0-12.7-13.0
25 61.1 32.3-14.2-20.9-15.4-11.8
31 70.8 36.2-14.2-22.8-13.8-  9.1
32 74.4 40.2-13.2-12.7-15.8-  8.9
35 72.5 40.3-13.0-18.2-14.9-  8.8
36 76.1 38.4-14.0-17.3-15.8-10.5
41 79.3 35.6-14.2-13.4-16.2-18.5
42 77.5 38.1-15.4-15.1-13.4-15.1 Left in third.
43 72.0 34.8-15.4-17.6-12.5-16.2
45 68.8 41.5-13.6-17.5-16.4-  7.2
46 73.1 43.1-12.1-14.7-16.7-  8.7
51 75.6 35.7-15.6-14.6-16.0-15.9
52 76.4 32.9-15.7-14.1-14.2-21.2
53 70.2 33.9-16.2-21.8-12.4-12.2
54 73.0 35.8-16.0-19.5-13.1-12.1
55 64.9 34.6-14.5-24.5-13.5-  8.5
56 64.4 35.4-14.1-24.8-14.1-  6.2 FDP in third.
57 70.4 33.9-15.3-23.6-12.8-10.7
61 61.8 35.1-14.5-26.6-11.5-  6.2
62 71.7 36.1-14.6-21.3-14.0-10.0
63 74.6 41.3-14.0-15.1-16.2-10.2
64 63.6 36.1-14.0-22.8-14.0-  7.1
71 58.1 31.9-15.1-29.9-10.9-  5.9
72 52.1 33.0-13.9-30.8-11.6-  4.3 I think it should be clear what part of Berlin Prohlis and Gorbitz are like.
73 69.9 37.5-14.9-18.7-16.5-  8.0
74 74.0 40.6-12.1-18.4-16.2-  7.8
75 70.4 36.1-15.5-21.4-13.6-  9.6
76 64.8 31.4-15.4-21.2-14.0-13.9
77 58.4 34.6-15.6-24.5-14.1-  5.2
81 71.4 30.9-16.9-22.4-13.1-13.6
82 71.9 29.4-17.9-20.9-14.5-14.4
83 70.1 34.4-16.4-23.2-11.6-10.4
84 70.8 36.1-15.6-20.8-13.2-  9.7
85 69.9 37.5-13.5-20.3-14.0-10.5
86 76.7 30.7-18.7-16.5-14.0-17.3
90 68.2 43.1-11.9-15.9-14.2-  9.8
91 59.0 33.6-12.7-22.3-15.9-  9.9
92 61.4 28.0-14.7-19.8-16.6-16.6 FDP in fourth
93 64.1 29.1-14.6-19.3-16.5-16.4
94 67.8 36.8-14.7-19.8-14.8-10.2
95 52.5 30.5-13.5-30.6-11.4-  6.2
96 53.1 28.2-13.7-30.2-13.1-  7.7
97 55.9 28.7-14.2-28.6-12.9-  7.5 This is actually a single vote lead that just rounds that way.
98 68.1 38.9-13.3-18.4-15.0-  9.2
99 75.6 43.5-12.7-16.8-16.6-  6.4

It's obvious which side of the river took the worse hit in 1945. Turnout spread quite as bad as in the West. The way the Greens do great in some (mostly inner) high turnout suburbs and badly in others seems utterly weird. Although maybe not to someone who knows these places. 

lol

That'll teach me to start working on maps after midnight. ;D Will change it now.

Any more maps being worked on?

()

Leading party (list vote) by political district (former in the case of Aachen).

Question answered. :D

()

Changes from the European Elections to the Federal ones. City States not done as I don't know how their boroughs went in the Euros. Red = SPD "gain" from CDU, Pink = Left "gain" from SPD, Purple = Left "gain" from CDU, Blue = CDU "gain" from SPD, Green-Blue = CDU "gain" from Greens. List vote obviously.

Did this because Dresden is taking a while and because I wondered if there were any patterns of interest.

CDU gains appear to be heavily concentrated near the northern part of the Upper Rhenanian Plain.

More seriously, Saxony-Anhalt is doing its old uniform swing state thing again. And there's some places going back that the SPD really has no business losing no matter the turnout (Recklinghausen!? Wilhelmshaven!?) And just areas that it won very narrowly this time.

Was slightly surprised that there were any - off the SPD, anyway. And both of those in the same state.

Might be related to the Left's bad Euros result. They've done very well in the western Pfalz in the 2005 and 2009 federals after all, but not in the state elections in between. I'd need to look up how well they did in the area in the Euros. If it was bad enough, it might be that some of the left voters there came back to the SPD for the euros, presumably on actually Europe-related issues.

Because noone cares, I've classified Hessian municipalities.

Category A: Places won by the SPD. (All these places had the CDU in second. None had a majority for CDU and FDP - even ignoring minor parties.)
Category B: Places won by the CDU where the new government still doesn't have a majority.
Category C: Places won by the CDU, with a majority for the government and the SPD in second place.
Category D: Places won by the CDU with the FDP in second place. Some of these, the CDU has a majority of its own. There might be one or two places of that type in Category C, but if so, I overlooked the fact.
Oh, and a one-place
Category X: Tie between CDU and SPD. Majority for the new government as the FDP outpolls Greens and Left combined.

Cities:
A: Kassel
B: Frankfurt, Offenbach, Darmstadt
C: Wiesbaden

Kassel rural (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a7/Gemeinden_im_Landkreis_Kassel_mit_Labels.svg/550px-Gemeinden_im_Landkreis_Kassel_mit_Labels.svg.png):
A: all but Naumburg
B: Naumburg

Waldeck-Frankenberg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/89/Municipalities_in_KB.svg/500px-Municipalities_in_KB.svg.png):
A: Diemelstadt, Edertal, Frankenau, Haina, Vöhl
C: everything else

Schwalm-Eder (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/39/Gemeinden_in_HR.svg/350px-Gemeinden_in_HR.svg.png):
A: 21 municipalities
B: Gilserberg, Ottrau
C: Gudensberg, Neukirchen, Oberaula, Schwarzenborn

Werra-Meißner (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3f/Municipalities_in_ESW.svg/300px-Municipalities_in_ESW.svg.png):
A: all but Bad Sooden-Allendorf, Berkatal
B: Bad Sooden-Allendorf, Berkatal

Hersfeld-Rotenburg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e9/Gemeinden_in_HEF.svg/300px-Gemeinden_in_HEF.svg.png):
A: 14 municipalities
B: Bad Hersfeld, Bebra, Rotenburg (the three largest in the district!), Friedewald
C: Kirchheim, Neuenstein

Fulda (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0d/Municipalities_in_FD.svg/500px-Municipalities_in_FD.svg.png):
C: Bad Salzschlirf, Burghaun, Fulda, Petersberg, Tann, Gersfeld, Neuhof, Kalbach, Flieden
D: remainder

Vogelsberg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/75/Mittelhessen_Vogelsberg.png/596px-Mittelhessen_Vogelsberg.png):
A: Feldatal, Grebenau, Lautertal, Romrod, Wartenberg
B: Alsfeld, Homberg, Lauterbach, Mücke, Schlitz, Schwalmtal
C: Herbstein, Kirtorf, Schotten, Ulrichstein, Gemünden, Grebenstein
D: Antrifttal, Freiensteinau

Marburg-Biedenkopf (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/48/Marburg_Biedenkopf.png/800px-Marburg_Biedenkopf.png):
A: Angelburg, Cölbe, Ebsdorfergrund, Lahntal, Marburg, Steffenberg, Wetter, Wohratal
B: Biedenkopf, Breidenbach, Dautphetal, Fronhausen, Kirchhain, Lohna, Müchhausen, Rauschenberg, Weimar
C: Bad Endbach, Gladenbach, Neustadt, Stadtallendorf
D: Amöneburg (you can really tell where the old Catholic enclaves in Marburg and the Vogelsberg are!)

Gießen (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ad/Landkreis_Gie%C3%9Fen.png/766px-Landkreis_Gie%C3%9Fen.png):
A: Biebertal, Staufenberg, Wettenberg
B: Gießen itself, Fernwald, Heuchelheim, Linden, Lollar
C: 10 municipalities

Lahn-Dill (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/03/Lahn-Dill-Kreis.png/330px-Lahn-Dill-Kreis.png):
A: Siegbach, Lahnau
B: Aßlar, Hohenahr, Mittenaar, Wetzlar itself
C: everything else

Limburg-Weilburg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/33/Limburg-Weilburg.png/581px-Limburg-Weilburg.png):
A: Löhnberg, Weinbach
B: Weilburg
C: 15 municipalities
D: Dornburg

Rheingau-Taunus (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/05/Municipalities_in_R%C3%9CD.svg/350px-Municipalities_in_R%C3%9CD.svg.png):
C: All but Schlangenbad, Niedernhausen
D: Schlangenbad, Niedernhausen (in the Rhein-Main region, category D has nothing to do with catholicism and everything with being far too posh for my taste. Though there'll be an  excemption at the other end of the region.)

Hochtaunus (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a8/Municipalities_in_HG.svg/450px-Municipalities_in_HG.svg.png):
C: Grävenwiesbach, Weilrod, Neu Anspach, Oberursel, Steinbach
D: Usingen, Wehrheim, Schmitten, Glashütten, Königstein, Kronberg, Bad Homburg, Friedrichsdorf

Main-Taunus (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d7/Karte_MTK.png):
C: Schwalbach, Sulzbach, Hattersheim, Flörsheim, Hochheim
D: everything else

Wetterau (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7d/Municipalities_in_FB.svg/500px-Municipalities_in_FB.svg.png):
A: Florstadt, Glauburg, Hirzenhain, Limeshain, Ranstadt, Wölfersheim
B: Echzell, Nidda
C: 16 municipalities
D: Bad Nauheim (worth pointing out that Nidda is the largest place in categories A or B, but only the seventh in the district behind Vilbel, Nauheim, Friedberg, Butzbach, Karben and Büdingen, in order. In the Wetterau, the story is suburban new right versus rural traditional left.)

Main-Kinzig (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e1/Municipalities_in_MKK.svg/800px-Municipalities_in_MKK.svg.png):
A: Brachttal
B: Erlensee
C: 24 municipalities (loads of close results. Still a phenomenally bad showing.)
D: Freigericht, Jossgrund (no, these are Catholic enclaves again. Well, Jossgrund anyways, not sure exactly about Freigericht. Anyways, not really the Rhein-Main area anymore)
X: Flörsbachtal

Offenbach rural (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/ad/Municipalities_in_OF_%28district%29.svg/450px-Municipalities_in_OF_%28district%29.svg.png):
B: Egelsbach
C: 8 municipalities
D: Heusenstamm, Obertshausen, Rödermark, Seligenstadt (that was the excemption I meant)

Darmstadt-Dieburg (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/9b/Municipalities_in_DA_%28district%29.svg/450px-Municipalities_in_DA_%28district%29.svg.png):
A: Reinheim, Ober-Ranstadt
B: Erzhausen, Weiterstadt, Griesheim, Pfungstadt, Bickenbach, Alsbach-Hähnlein, Modautal, Mühltal, Roßdorf, Groß-Umstadt
C: Seeheim-Jugenheim (exchange these last two, and the map is incredibly clearcut), Fischbachtal, Groß-Bieberau, Groß-Zimmern, Messel, Dieburg, Münster, Eppertshausen, Babenhausen, Schaafheim, Otzberg

Groß-Gerau (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/52/Municipalities_in_GG.svg/300px-Municipalities_in_GG.svg.png):
A: Ginsheim-Gustavsburg, Bischofsheim, Raunheim, Büttelborn, Biebesheim, Stockstadt
B: Kelsterbach, Rüsselsheim, Mörfelden-Walldorf (I found that a little shocking. CDU ahead in Mörfelden_Walldorf? Okay, so Greens and Left together were as strong as the SPD but...), Groß-Gerau, Riedstadt
C: Nauheim, Trebur, Gernsheim

Bergstraße (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/17/Municipalities_in_HP.svg/450px-Municipalities_in_HP.svg.png):
A: Groß Rohrheim
B: Lautertal
C: 20 municipalities

Odenwald (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f1/Municipalities_in_ERB.svg/450px-Municipalities_in_ERB.svg.png):
A: Beerfelden, Breuberg, Hesseneck, Höchst, Rothenberg, Sensbachtal
B: Fränkisch Crumbach, Lützelbach, Michelstadt
C: Bad König, Brensbach, Bromsbachtal, Erbach, Mossautal, Reichelsheim

Interesting. Is there a map of all the municipalities? If there isn't I could draw one myself, but it would take a while.

()

Dresden. The first fully ex-DDR city that I've ever done one of these for.

There probably is, but don't bother. I kept the no. of categories simple so people can (if they want to) picture the maps themselves. I'd rather you do more cities. I suggest Essen next. :D

Ah, O.K. I did clean up the Essen basemap the other day, so that makes sense :)

Btw, what's with the (relative) concentration of SPD support in the centre of Dresden? The Greens upside down "u" is a little surprising as well, but you sort of mentioned that with the data.

What are those two wards/districts the Linke won like?

The area is called Gorbitz and this is a photo from 1987:

()

Prohlis (the two areas further west where the Left was also quite strong though the CDU narrowly won) is much the same.

No idea. Wossies? (West German transplants, that is.) The eastern arm of that is along the river. And makes a limited amount of sense to me. Don't know anything about the area in the southwestern arm. Looks perfectly strange to me, though maybe it's relatively strongly prewar.

()

Essen.

Pretty strong polarization, isn't it. When I saw election results come in, I thought the CDU would probably pick up Essen South. Dortmund too has a bourgeois south side, though it's not nearly as pronounced IIRC.

EDIT: Wait - the SPD still polled majorities in some locales? Wow.

Pretty impressive as such things go, yeah.


Yes - in a place called Vogelheim. SPD 50.6%, CDU 14.7%, Left 13.8%, FDP 7%, Greens 6%

()

Darmstadt.

Sweet.

Made a start on Nuremberg (looks very interesting, actually) but fucked up the key (scroll down in future, you idiot) so have had to start again. It should be up later today.

Don't we sort of have a map of Nuremberg already? Do Dortmund and Wiesbaden and Leipzig!

Yes, though mine would be prettier.  ;D Though as it do take forever...


...I might do these before I finish it ;D Already have a cleaned-up Dortmund base map.

Btw, do you have another link for the Leipzig map?

Map link fixed (http://www.victor-immobilien.de/html/stadtteile.html)

()

Dortmund. Not as hilariously polarised as Essen, though some patterns are familiar. And, yes, The Left did indeed beat the CDU in much of the inner North.

And that's the nice part of Dortmund! (Well, by my definition anyhow - reminds me of the Gallus with a touch of the North End thrown in.) Though my ancestral country (ie, where my father's parents grew up) is the inner east.

()

Leipzig.

Comparing the Leipzig maps to the Dresden one is interesting.

Many more Left wins (obviously), but otherwise sort of comparable.

Is Leipzig's centre posher than Dresden's?

What is Dresden's centre? The touristridden histotainment park that sits on the spot of the "Old Town"?* It's hard to get posher, in East Germany outside of new developments near West Berlin.
Leipzig's centre is a little further away from the cool part of town, is more like it.  Thus probably has more people in it who've been there before 1990. (Besides, I don't know Leipzig well enough.) What I meant was mostly, the huge 70s/80s development as a Left stronghold, the obligatory punk/hippie/now bobofying Green district that emerged due to resettlement of the ordinary working class onto the new huge 70s/80s development and that every major East German city seems to possess...

*As to the complex issue of the history of Dresden and the changing meanings of the term "old" in respect to the city's topography, I'll do that by request only.

The bit in the middle,  most of which had above average Left results - which is obviously not true of Leipzig, thus the question.


I think I'll randomly take you up on that in a few months time :P

The areas around (south, west, east) of the Inner Old Town?

At the top here (that would be, the areas east of the Inner Old Town, which itself is obviously in the lower two thirds of the image).

()

Gee, might this (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bombing_of_Dresden_in_World_War_II) have anything to do with it, I wonder? :)

Yeah, that would explain things.

()

Wiesbaden The Left's best area was somewhere where they did badly in the state election earlier in the year, fwiw.

Above average, actually. But worse than in the obvious central strongholds and in the other two "right bank of Mainz" neighborhoods, and even in a couple of random other places.
Yeah, the Left made some big gains in very SPD-ish places in these elections, both those where it had always been strong (Riederwald, say) and others where it hadn't really broken through before (like Amöneburg here. Or East Frisia.)

()

Nuremberg. My German isn't good enough to know what's done with the areas I've blanked out - I can make any changes easily if they were combined with other areas for electoral purposes.

It said something somewhere near the maps about these areas "being nearly uninhabited and combined with a neighboring area for election purposes (see text above)". I didn't search the 20 pages of text for the places where it says what goes where.

Yeah, I sort of got parts of that, though wasn't entirely sure, but...


Exactly.

Anyway, just thought I'd note that I'll sort-of do requests now. So long as there's a map with the relevant boundaries on it, and the actual numbers.

I'll take you up on that. I'd like to see a constituency map with CDU and FDP added together and likewise for SPD, Greens, and PDS.

Would you prefer local government districts? They're more detailed in most areas.

Ah, yes, then.

Mierscheid's law struck again:

()

Ah, I remember that from 2005. Hilarious.

()

Leading party in Frankfurt by postal precinct. Whether this sort of map is all that useful when you consider that four parties won postal precincts and that a fifth polled strongly in some others isn't the point. Pretty!

(standard key used)

^      ^        ^

You know what to do about that. >:D

Yeah... there is something I can do about that, isn't there...

Are you thinking what I'm thinking, or of a precinct map?`Or both? ;D

First one, then the other ;D

Perhaps this ought to be unstickied.

DON'T QUESTION MY AUTHORITY!

Er... yeah... it probably should be. At some point. When I remember.

Will I now be eaten by a bear? :(

No. By me. Please let yourself be escorted to the fryingpan.

()

A bigger picture can be found in the gallery.

Minor errors possible. They key is the same as: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_27_09_09_9_06_22.PNG except that the lowest numbers shown on those keys are usually a little lower on the above (which makes no difference to the actual map).

()

Again, a bigger picture may be found in the gallery. Other notes apply also.

:D

Why are they in different galleries though? ???

Because I filed the one in the wrong place - has now been moved.

Oh. That would explain it I suppose. :(

Is there anything you, you know, want to know? :)

Depends how much time you have at the moment :)

Obviously comments on the reasons for the patterns of support for each party would be nice, but if you don't have that long, then Bornheim's voting patterns look interesting and Gutleut-Bahnhofsviertel had a weird result that could do with some explaining.

Lemme see...

in case you have looked at the precinct results for the Gutleut and the precinct map, a lot of it is already explained - two of those five precincts don't match the other three, oh no they don't, not at all they do. ;D

()

This is the bulk of 151-04. This is newly built on ex-industrial land, and it's a dockland-style yuppie enclave. (A bit more of the same is happening north of the station, at the Gallus' easternmost end.) Note the houses on the old pier (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Frankfurt_Westhafen_090705.jpg).

Here (http://img.fotocommunity.com/photos/12325923.jpg) with facing side also built.

While precinct 151-01 is mostly a 30s built estate of row houses hidden deep in the recesses of industrial/warehousing country.

The rows west of the red line here: ()

Yeah, and the remainder is basically Frankfurt's station quarter. Famous red light industry (in the northern part of 090), noncitizen majority, some yuppiefication, very small flats behind stately facades on huge houses built around 1900, drunks, junkies, students and mosques. Some very marginal remnants of a furrier cottage industry that once existed in the area, too. Northern, eastern, southern fringe swallowed up by the nearby finance district.

---

Bornheim has pre-1918 parts that are just the ex-working-class end of the continuum across the North End. (The common parlance borders of Bornheim to the south and east west are highly fuzzy, but certainly well south and east west of the official ones. Using them, it actually makes more sense to describe the pre-1918 parts of Bornheim as the Greens' strongest area, not the North End.) Half the pictures here (http://www.bernem.de/html/alte_bilder.html) are from right around the 271-240 border... either side.

And then there's estateland. Though "special" estateland in that it's built so as to merge into Bornheim fairly seamlessly. The Bornheimer Hang estate (282, here (http://www.bernem.de/bildalt-siedlungbornhang-gr.jpg) shown freshly constructed) is 20s/30s, the area in the north (the northwestern part of 272, as it were) is partly ancient - 1870s - and that part votes Greenish - but the greater part is 1960s or so. And then in the 70s they added some ugly tower block (http://www.thehighrisepages.de/hhkartei/ffminh71.htm)s north of the Bornheimer Hang, just east of the ancient village of Bornheim.
Anywhere in Bornheim, people feel they live "in Bornheim", not "in the x estate" as can happen elsewhere. But the kind of house they live in still informs their voting behavior, basically.

Interesting :)

Comments on the SPD's are a bit unnecessary seeing as they're essentially randomly distributed except for the ultraposhest bits. At least when you look at share of the registered votership rather than share of the vote cast. ;D (Though the Riederwald is still their second best result... the best is actually Enkheim. And the Gallus is somewhere in the middle of the table. Cough.) The standard deviation of SPD results is just .0167. (The Left's is .0166, though on half the vote so it means more. The Greens' is .046, FDP .042, CDU .04.) That's what you get for being the only Volkspartei still in existence and sucking royally. ;D

The CDU obviously does best in posh and/or basically inner suburban rather than urban areas. The FDP does much the same except with an added bonus in the unequivocally urban poshlands (and, on the precinct level, in a number of 151-04-like places.) Age structure plays a role in describing the difference; so does the survival of non-negligible numbers of elderly working class CDU voters. 60s/70s built areas, especially, tend to have a lot of Christian Democrat votes of that type (they also have low turnout, exaggerating the CDU's strength in these places.) *looks at the Northwest especially*

The Greens' strongholds are of course the obvious Bobo areas of the North End/non-estate Bornheim and Bockenheim Proper, obviously. Inner Sachsenhausen to a lesser extent. (a note on students: The University institutions aren't quite where you think they are. Though the students are, insofar as they aren't living at home with their parents.) They also do well enough wherever there's a lot of older housing stock... or very new one (which means few olds). (The former US Housings, especially in Ginnheim, exchanged their population for an entirely new one 15 years ago, and thus should be counted as new.)

And the Left map is just what the SPD map used to be. :P
Okay, not really. They do above-average in the Green strongholds - except the most affluent bits like the southwestern North End or the relevant parts of Sachsenhausen - they do greatest in the ancient SPD strongholds of the Gallus and the Riederwald, and all across the outer parts of the city they have marked outcrops wherever an area feels a bit fucked. This'll show up much more markedly on a precinct map, and is somewhat irrespective of the remaining parties' strenght (ie it happens in fucked 70s estates with a lot of CDU-voting ethnic German olds and few young ethnic Germans like the Nordweststadt or northern Zeilsheim just as in somewhat fucked ancient housing stock areas like Old Höchst and Old Rödelheim, or very new fucked areas like the Housings or the Höchster Oberfeld, areas with lots of Greens and very few rightwing voters.

And then there's the peculiar weakness of both Greens and FDP west of the motorway in the entire ex-Höchst District area, a fifth of the city. Which I find to be only partly explained by all the factors cited above. And in the Greens' case is partly organizational weakness after the local Greens went over the the PDS en bloc around 2001 or so. But still leaves something to be explained.

---

Just for fun. Correlation between parties' support. Again based on share of registered voters.

statistically relevant
CDU-Left -.833
FDP-Left -.734
CDU-FDP +.635
SPD-FDP -.552
SPD-Left +.415

of doubtful statistical relevance
FDP-Greens +.29
CDU-SPD -.225
CDU-Greens -.199
Greens-Left +.151

just plain not correlated
SPD-Greens -.083

Also interesting :)

Btw, looking over all the maps done so far, the general patterns of support for most parties seem to be quite similar in most cities in the West, except that SPD support seems to be more concentrated in cities historically dominated by heavy industry. Is this one of those questions that answers itself or is there a different explanation?

Also, is (asking just about Frankfurt now) the division of the bourgeois vote (too tempting) between CDU and FDP mostly about age, or occupation (managerial versus professional or whatever)?

Hmmm... what is this based on - the Ruhr? Remember that the Ruhr (like the South Welsh coalfield. Though it's nowhere as mountainous, obviously) was an area of low population density into the 19th century. It did have some older urban centres, and the post-20s-reforms cities are usually built around them, but they weren't particularly important ones. The Ruhr was a "frontier society" in the time of its massive growth. All the non-Ruhr large cities we've mapped here were large (by the time's standards) before the Industrial Revolution, and most were capital cities.
Besides, what's a heavy industry? Berlin, Frankfurt, Cologne had no mines or steelworks (though the rural district just west of Cologne is ancient lignite mining country, of course) but they have (or have had) some pretty heavy manufacturing. And Frankfurt and Cologne have chemical industry, of course.
How the fuck am I supposed to know without decent statistics on anything like that. I would guess the average FDP voter probably has a higher income than the average CDU voter of the same age, but not necessarily more assets.

Addendum: Probably ought to throw something in about social liberalism/lifestyle choices/whatever for the FDP-CDU difference. Not that there would be a clearcut division, of course.

Further addendum: Take a look at p.44 ff. here (http://www.frankfurt.de/sixcms/media.php/678/JB2009_Kap02x.pdf), on household types by Stadtteil.

Mostly, yeah. I was wondering whether this is because of 'political' factors (political culture, organisation, etc) or socio-economic ones. Or maybe a combination of the two.


The joke about mentioning 'heavy industry' is that it can mean almost anything you want it to ;D

Actually, I was just thinking of a way of putting 'industrial city without as many historic, administrative, service, etc. functions' in a way that didn't read as 'industrial city without as many historic, administrative, service, etc. functions', which reads pretty clunky.


No idea, but was curious; sometimes that sort of thing is known, sometimes it isn't. One of the funniest things about elections (IMO anyway) is the radically different versions of who supports who told by people from different parties, newspapers or whatever.

Both questions relate to my... er... 'serious'... interests, in case you couldn't tell ;D

You have 'serious' interests? First I hear about it. ;D

I used inverted commas for a reason. ;D

Btw, I'm wondering about how to do the precinct maps. Maybe breaking the city into parts and doing those and posting them up and then (at the end) stitching them all together.

Is that what you fellows call apostrophes?

The Landtag constituencies maybe (perhaps splitting the oversized sixth)? Or the Ortsbezirke (with a joint map for the four tiny northern ones)?

Think I'll use the Ortsbezirke as maps can be up quicker that way.

()

Ortsbezirke 1.

*drool*

No place like home.

Singular of Ortsbezirke is Ortsbezirk, though, and this thing could do with a turnout map. ;D

I'm thinking of one large turnout map when all the result ones are done. It'd be a lot quicker to do than these because it's only one thing (as opposed to six).

()

Ortsbezirk 2.

Funny how the SPD and FDP vote is almost perfectly converse, especially in the Ortsbezirk 1.

Bockenheim, meet the West End; West End, meet Bockenheim; West End and Bockenheim, meet a few odds and ends tagged onto you: The "Diplomatenviertel" ("Edelbockenheim", as a friend of mine called it trying to describe where an address was); a little bit of US Housings, with another older odd little estate and a bit of mostly new land next to it, at what everybody except the City of Frankfurt would describe the southwestern part of the Dornbusch; Bockenheim-Süd partially cleared and rebranded as the "City-West"; the Kuhwaldsiedlung; and the Postal Estate that most people would consider in Rödelheim.

()

Ortsbezirk 3. Btw, while I've gone in order so far (and will usually continue to do so) I might get a few suburban ones out of the way fairly early. Or might not. Who knows.

()

Ortsbezirk 4.

Not that it matters, but 240 is statistically in North End East but is politically in the Bornheim-East End Ortsbezirk anyways.

---

There is definitely something wrong with the official result in that southernmore CDU stronghold precinct in the North End. Though I've no clue how it happened, exactly.

Apart from that, the northwesternmore precinct is not really North End at all, the Holzhausenviertel (the two precincts south of that) is ridiculously posh, the southern fringe had more war damage and thus has more postwar housing.

Approximately half the voters (less of the population) in that Port precinct are in the little northwestern hook, and the rest is scattered across the area. Until about 2000 the port had a precinct of its own, now it's paired with residential territory. :(
And a note on the two southwesternmost East End precincts. Not long ago they used to vote alike. Then they started building the new posh houses at the Weseler Werft, so the easternmore started trending posh. And having more residents. And higher turnout. So in the recent precinct reorganization, they moved some of its old growth, ordinary Lower East End, parts over into its western neighbor, further accentuating the difference.

---

Are you using a uniform color scheme for the whole set?

Yes; the plan is to stick them all together into citywide maps at the end.

Is this on hold on account of that stupid boring unnecessary election in England?

No; another one will be up either tomorrow or later today. It will probably be on hold, and because of said stupid boring unnecessary election, for at least a week after the sixth day in May.

Oh. Great. :D

I would have sympathized if it were on hold, you know.

()

Ortsbezirk 5. The massive area around the airport has not been included, though will be on the citywide combination maps. Some minor errors possible.

Bumpity.

Comment on the last map uploaded here and there might be another one up soon... ;D

If I can, you know, get my email (which has the file with the figures in it) to work properly.

Eh, old Sachsenhausen and the 1890s era area southwest of it should be obvious enough. Downstream from old Sachsenhausen is poshland, upstream is the new poshish (but not all-posh) stuff built on the former slaughterhouse grounds (the long pale yellow precinct). South of the railway line is mostly more suburban than urban in character... excempting the area just south here... but not all of it is posh though a lot is. Some weird non-social housing tower blocks where the precincts are smaller. And Binding Brewery east of that, of course. And then there's the estatelands in the "Gleisdreieck", ie the Heimatsiedlung (the one SPD precinct in Sachsenhausen with the huge Left and ridiculous CDU tally, Bauhaus architecture, quite dense) and the ugly 50s Fritz-Kissel-Siedlung south of it which is full of elderly workingclass Heimatvertriebene. The precinct east of the Heimatsiedlung is sort of mixed, partly rather like the Kissel estate but not part of it. And two blocks that look exactly like the Heimatsiedlung and were built at the same time and were supposed to be yet another estate that never got built.
And then there's Oberrad and Niederrad. Old dependent villages of Frankfurt that later turned working class suburbs/commuter villages (in the 19th century). Oberrad got bombed flat quite badly in march 1945, nobody really knows why. That southeastern Oberrad precinct is another place with ugly-looking non "social" highrises - it's very visible from the motorway coming in from the south, and a friend of mine once told he always claims it's part of Offenbach when he drives guests in along that road.
Niederrad has interwar and postwar estatelands to the west but also a rather nice old "urban" core (and a tiny even older "village" core north of that) and a posh zone at the southeast corner.
I could resend it...

Might be an idea; I've found the file, but it won't download for some reason.

Magnus Gäfgen (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_G%C3%A4fgen) grew up on the Fritz Kissel estate.

MVP will lose a seat to Hesse at the next review. Which isn't officially out yet, but the numbers it will use are. (We review every year except election years... but we only apportion seats by states and check whether any seat is really obscenely above or below target - 25% over or under (on election day as well as the date the review's based on) being considered totally illegal, and 15% undesirable... but bearable.) Anyways, it's clear that the new seat in Hesse will be created from parts of the Hanau, Wetterau and Fulda constituencies, and that Fulda will move north somewhat to take in part of Werra-Meißner-Hersfeld. But there are two proposals on which places exactly are to be included in the new constituency.

()

()

The latter map is preferrable; it includes part of "only" three districts (Wetterau, Main-Kinzig, Vogelsberg, but not Fulda) and also moves the Fulda constituency out of the Vogelsberg district entirely. Besides, I think this is winnable for the SPD though it would go CDU in an even year. The other one is not winnable short of a landslide. Numbers reference current constituencies - 175 Fulda, 177 Wetterau, 180 Hanau. And 174 Gießen, which also includes the remainder of Vogelsberg district. (This would recreate the 30s to 70s district boundary, with Alsfeld District in Gießen and Lauterbach District in the new, as yet unnamed, constituency. Probably Gelnhausen-Schlüchtern-Lauterbach or some such. Although Spessart-Vogelsberg might work too.)

I can't seem to find anything on a six-seat MVP; it's rather remarkable that the Fuldaer Zeitung has a journalist who cared to report, and it's my only source right now (as there are no official publications yet).

Check your email.

()

Ortsbezirk 6. These suburbs appear to be different to those in the previous set. Errors possible.

Ah, where to begin.

Anything post 94 here (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hoechst_AG) is fairly useless. There is very little "suburban" (in the sense I meant I used it the last time around - though of course in another sense everything here except maybe the northeast Griesheim projects* is suburban) about the west part of the city. Parts of western Unterliederbach, that's about it.

*Excempted in that they're close to and linked to the Gallus, not on account of how they vote (or rather how that minority of residents who're both enfranchised and care votes.)

Southern Zeilsheim:

()

The Hoechst AG housing its workers, once upon a time.

What's behind the high Green vote in that one area? I seem to remember you saying that it's the site of the old works, so presumably new build of some kind. Is there student housing there?

Ah lol, no. That it includes (a lot of) the old works is merely the reason why the precinct's surface is that big. The population is east of that. It's part of the old urban core of Höchst. Not quite sure why the Green tally was slightly higher than in the other two precincts there.

The works are not torn down or anything. They're not even vacant (if somewhat underemployed). A lot of the production that used to be there when Hoechst was a living, vibrant, rooted company is still there... perfect proof that "shareholder values" can destroy a community even without actually throwing everybody on the street.

To be quite fair, the times when Hoechst workers all lived in Höchst or Zeilsheim or Sindlingen were long past even before.

Same thing happened to Longbridge about two decades before the gross mismanagement of it's 'saviors' finally killed (most of) the remains of it. Slightly different circumstances and a different industry, though.

So... now that two-thirds of the city are up anyways... might as well continue. :)

()

Ortsbezirk 7. In certain parts... wtf?

It isn't immediately obvious due to the colour scheme, but the Left won Old Rödelheim (Greens second I think). On a little over 20% of the vote - it wasn't actually their strongest precinct - but, yeah. Also, the Westhausen Estate precincts (two northernmost SPD precincts) look weird without a road grid. Late 20s/Early 30s built, as is the Praunheim Estate just north of it, but with smaller houses. The SPD precinct in southeastern Hausen has some slummy highrises bordering directly on open land. While South Praunheim (south from old Praunheim, and across the Nidda River too. Actually the easternmost part of Praunheim) looks and feels affluent suburban (and butt-ugly) despite its almost-inner-city location. Privately built late 60s/70s infill.

What else is wtf?

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siedlung_Praunheim

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siedlung_Westhausen

Nothing else; that was the wtf bit.

Actually, I haven't even mentioned the part that looks most wtf (beyond that Left precinct) from the POV of someone who knows the area reasonably well... which is the FDP distribution. I would have expected stronger results on the other side of the railroad tracks, and in South Praunheim (although geriatry may explain that one)... even though I know most of those two precincts east of Rödelheim station (which is at the point where four precincts meet) are more affluent than the road that divides them (and that would fit right into the Left-won precinct east of it.) Especially right by the Nidda.

()

Ortsbezirk 8.

Heddernheim proper to the east, interwar Römerstadt to the south, 90s/2000s built Mertonviertel on the former copperworks grounds to the northeast, the huge 60s/70s Nordweststadt dominant in the west and center. Niederursel proper in the north, not that it's particularly large.

The area had a ridiculous number of precincts abolished in '09, and it obscures a lot of patterns. :( Besides, I know the area well, mostly, but I don't have an answer to the obvious question, ie why are some Nordweststadt tower block areas more socialdemocratic than others?

()

Ortsbezirk 9.

Two questions. What makes the strong SPD precinct out on its lonesome different from the rest of that general area, well, naturally you have to say something about the precinct that voted SPD 30, Left 26, Green 17, CDU 12, FDP 7.

Er... not sure actually. And I've walked the area to find out.
It's an undersized precinct IIRC. And 2009's SPD tally was a few points higher than you'd expect from earlier years... but that gain is mostly at the Greens' expense. Which answers absolutely nothing.
I've mentioned them before. The former US army housings (not barracks - apartments for soldiers and their families) turned into social housing in the mid-90s. Which means poor people, an ethnically mixed (ie highered migrant share but majority German) population, and absolutely no olds. Heck, a Frankfurt "Siedlung" with non-negligible numbers of pure German children.
Over half of the two precincts to the north is also former US army housings, and there are a few more smaller such areas elsewhere. But this is the only precinct to consist wholly of them. What's more, there's the issue of the road grid (http://maps.google.de/maps?hl=de&q=Frankfurt+Sudermannstra%C3%9Fe&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Sudermannstra%C3%9Fe,+60431+Frankfurt+am+Main,+Hessen&ll=50.141706,8.657141&spn=0.008086,0.026157&t=h&z=16): You'll notice there's exactly four ways in and out of the precinct (and one a darkened underpass at that), while the housings further to the north are more integrated into surrounding architecture.

This one's a large precinct. With low but not quite comedic turnout. And the lowest share of mail-in ballots in the city.

Re 8...

()()

Couple of minor mistakes (a few Nordi blocks shown outside the dotted line, terrain west of Praunheinmer Weg wrongly shown as in Praunheim rather than Niederursel), but shows a lot. Römerstadt showing very well.

Ah, yes. I remember you mentioning it now :)

So the other one is just one of those weird little electoral quirks?

Probably, yeah.

A lot of the eastern Dornbusch (not all of it) could/"should" be voting somewhat more leftwing than it does. Would be doing so in Britain, I suppose. Old people. Stable neighborhoods with small but comfortable 50s/early 60s built flats. This precinct votes like what it looks like.

()

Ortsbezirk 10.

This is estates and suburbs, presumably? Some new-ish. That's what the patterns remind me of, anyway.

This is estates and suburbs. The new bits very new.

That northeast Frankfurter Berg precinct consists of just nine buildings: http://maps.google.de/maps?hl=de&q=Frankfurter+Berg&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Frankfurter+Berg+Frankfurt+am+Main,+Hessen&ll=50.168542,8.681645&spn=0.004041,0.013078&t=h&z=17 (http://maps.google.de/maps?hl=de&q=Frankfurter+Berg&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Frankfurter+Berg+Frankfurt+am+Main,+Hessen&ll=50.168542,8.681645&spn=0.004041,0.013078&t=h&z=17)
(Also, note the construction just south of it. Built by now.)

Ooh, the Frankfurter Bogen (East Preungesheim) is also shown as not yet built in google earth: http://maps.google.de/maps?hl=de&q=Frankfurter+Berg&ie=UTF8&hq=&hnear=Frankfurter+Berg+Frankfurt+am+Main,+Hessen&ll=50.154494,8.699563&spn=0.008084,0.026157&t=h&z=16
But it's there in streetview!

Ah, so the usual (ish) pattern of smaller parties getting high percentages in smaller divisions.

Because it's the New Year:

()

Naturally the one set that's lines don't fit is the one done the other day. Oh well.

Oh. Right. The 10th. Lol. That's why it looked so strange. I mean, besides the 11th.

()

The various smaller ones that cover the northern suburbs (inside the city).

One hellhole covered is not like the other hellholes. :)

()

Ortsbezirk 16.

Only one to go now, unless I've miscounted somewhere.

...and I think you were trying to save the best for last with that one.

Here we got the ancient little city of Bergen up on the ridge, surrounded by very posh developments (especially right on the hillslope itself, ie to the south) - see the two slightly lighter precincts in the northern part of the CDU map? That's old Bergen - and then we get the much more working class 50s (mostly) suburb of Enkheim down in the floodplain (not that the Main has been allowed to flood the plain these last 100 years). Taking its name from an old village - really just a cluster of a few houses - that had always belonged to Bergen and that sits right at the foot of the ridge, actually in that blue/yellow precinct and thus not in what I'd term an Enkheim precinct. Not really *entirely* sure why there's such a strong east-west cleavage within Enkheim, don't really know it well enough for that.

Such cynicism is of course entirely accurate.

And finally...

()

Pretty.

Please could you specify the name of the towns you insert?

All maps since... the 18th of March last year... have been of Frankfurt or different parts of Frankfurt.

()

Kind of hard to tell PDS from SPD.

Yeah, but there's not much can be done about that. And it's only one precinct.

()

Nice. Of course I'm really waiting for the turnout map. ;D

()

()

()

()

Were lower-level results for Düsseldorf ever published? My brother used to live there and I like the idea of randomly spamming him with election maps.

How about this one:

http://www.duesseldorf.de/wahlen/download/wahlanalyse_bw09.pdf (http://www.duesseldorf.de/wahlen/download/wahlanalyse_bw09.pdf)

Page 31 is probably what you are looking for, list vote in percentage on the city district level. There are maps of the city districts in the document, too.

Ah, good, good...


And you will get it. You will get it.