Talk Elections

New Poll: Virginia Governor by Survey USA on 2009-10-04 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/GOVERNOR/2009/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120091004019)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 54%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=10fe2317-36a6-4429-86ce-1d154fb33c58%26c=18)

If the election for Virginia governor were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Bob McDonnell? Or Democrat Creigh Deeds?



McDonnell (R) - 54%

Deeds (D) - 43%

Undecided - 4%

Game over. :(

Looks about right. Too bad right in this case also equals gross. :(

sample is gop + 5

Meh. "Republican GAIN from Democrat"

Poor Ben. :(

fine you rethuglicans. you get virginia. but we will have the last laugh in new jersey.

Papers will say "Split Decision" instead of "Republicans on the Rise". I can live with that.

The two races, in terms of numbers, are the opposite of what we thought a few months ago.

Not that it matters to the actual outcome, but I still don't buy SUSA's likely voter sample here. I think it should be more like 49-48 McCain, and probably an overall result of 51-45.  That would still be a bit more republican than PPP's sample. At the end of the day I feel that local tax initiatives will bring out Northern VA Democrats if Deeds can't, and the fact that Surveyusa only polls the statewide races is producing a more Republican sample than will actually occur.

It will be interesting to see how NoVA votes this year. We'll see just how partisan this trend really is. As for both VA and NJ, I had always thought NJ would be tougher for a GOP pickup, it just goes without question when compared with VA.

I've been using 2005's results as a baseline, since it was literally a 50/50 split:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=51&year=2005&f=0&off=9

Alexandria/Arlington/Falls Church are reliably 70% Dem, Fairfax tends to go 55-60% Dem, and Prince William/Loudoun have become swing counties. Deeds didn't win either of the last two last year, so even if he ekes out a win, I doubt he'd win either. He'll still win Fairfax, but probably on the low end of the 55-60%.

Incidentally, the last statewide Republican candidate to win Fairfax was Jerry Kilgore in 2001, but he only won by about 5% while blowing out Don McEachin 60-40 statewide.

I sound like a broken record, but this is not over.  Deeds will win the only poll that matters.

What is this based on? What are you seeing that we aren't?

Deeds is blasting ads in Northern Virginia, attacking McDonnell.  He only needs to keep up his 2005 numbers in NOVA to win the election, and the region has swung to the Democrats since then.  Ultimately, he will manage the votes he needs.

I guess all of the polling is just completely wrong then.

Does Deeds have more money or something? I am sure Mcdonnell is blasting ads as well. But maybe it's only in "real Virginia" since its more cost effective.

McDonnell is running ads in NOVA, as well, but not nearly as many as Deeds.  Plus, Deeds is running ads that are attacking McDonnell, and that's what matters.

Candidates do tend to do that when they're far behind.

Agreed.  The negative campaign worked well over the Summer, but hammering the same message for months after the peek just shows that there is no deeper substance to the candidate, especially when they are nearly 10 points behind.

From what I'm seeing, they're running about the same number of ads. And McDonnell is running plenty of ads attacking Deeds as well.