Talk Elections

I just read that Hoffman may run again for the GOP. This would be a huge mistake for them by running a retread after the debacle on tuesday. NY-23 is very republican but more so at the local level as Obamas 52-47 win there was only slightly less than the national average. He didnt even campaign in upstate NY in the primary or the general and had he done so it would have been at least as Democratic as the rest of america. It is NOT a very religious, social conservative area at all. If Cuomo is at the top of the ballot and has an easy race for Governor, Owens should beat Hoffman fairly easily.

I think Hoffman would be able to run an effective campaign as long as the Republicans don't nominate a centre-left RINO in a closed door meeting.  I mean, it is sad when the Republican is more liberal than the Democrat.  No wonder the far-right wingnuts were screaming bloody murder.

How is that sad? If anything, it reflects poorly on the Democrats.

Well, I believe that being a conservative democrat is better than being a liberal republican, so, in my mind, it shows poor on the Republicans.

Upstate New York isn't the south.......

There should actually be a primary in 2010, right?  I imagine even a messy primary would be less acrimonious than this year's race.

Without the massive support/funding from activists all over the country, Hoffman wouldn't have done nearly as well. In 2010, their attentions will be divided, and Hoffman would be lucky to poll in the mid 40's.

I doubt there'll be one. Considering all the institutional support Hoffman had from conservatives nationally and locally, I'd be surprised if any primary challenger to Hoffman gained much cash or traction.

My main point wasn't the ideology of the candidate as much as it was the nominee shouldn't be drafted in secret.  I think that was the main cause of the uproar.  Sure, they didn't like the fact she was a RINO, but they didn't like that she was nominated behind closed doors and by a small group of people.  I'm sure if the people had been able to have a real primary for the GOP nomination and Scozzafava happened to win the primary, I don't think they would have been as vocal about it.  They still wouldn't have been happy, but they would have accepted it more as the "will of the people".  I mean, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, and Rush Limbaugh while they are far right-wingers, do have brains and they are intelligent.

Even Sarah? :|

Even Sarah!!  Now, she doesn't use it a whole lot, but she does have brains!!

I'll look forward to Hoffman losing by a considerably bigger margin the second time around.

Murtha will hook Owens up with enough pork to get reelected I think

We need to do what we did in the Lousianna special election in 2008. Switch candidates and find a much more politically experienced, mainstream conservative Republican who can win Hoffman's vote, some of the Dede vote that was just voting for the R, and finally some of the McHugh voters that didn't vote in 2009 but will in 2010. I am sure there are numerous people that would fit that description in that distract.

It's more similar to the Upper South than you might imagine actually.

The district might be Republican, but it isn't conservative

Depends on your definition of conservative. McHugh certainly wasn't a RINO.

True, but he was also a well established incumbent, not to mention Hoffman is clearly to his right.

I am still praying Hoffman isn't our nominee in 2010, if my previous posts haven't made that clear already. If he does run though, I think he can win, but it will be more difficult and take more money and resources to accomplish.

Looking at the Democratic US House members from Upstate NY who won in GOP held seats 2006 and 2008 Democratic wave.
John Hall(NY-19) and Dan Maffei(NY-25) along with Hinchey,Higgins,and Slaughter are safe.
Murphy,Owens,Arcuri,and Massa will face tough races.

of those 4..i'd probably rank Murphy as most likely to win in large part b/c Gillibrand on the ballot will help him a lot in NY-20. I 'd say Owens has a better shot than Arcuri based on a slightly more Democratic district and the fact that Hoffman could be back again as a retread. Massa is the most likely to lose based on the fact that McCain won his district and Kuhl was a major underperfomer in general. Massa also barely won in 08

Welcome to the forum!!! :)

Cuomo, Schumer, and company will easily coat-tail Owen's re-election.

Yeah, that's the part of the equation that everyone seems to be missing. The Democratic ticket will be headed by Cuomo/Schumer/Gillibrand, while the Republicans have Lazio/nobody/nobody. A 65-70% steamrolling a la Spitzer/Clinton in 2006 would mean positive coattails for the Dems in every district except maybe NY-26.

In 2006- Democrats won NY-19(Hall-D unseated Sue Kelly-R)- which was a Moderate Republican district in the Westchester-Rockland County area- It was previously held by Ben Gilman-Hamilton Fish.  NY-20(Gillibrand-D unseated John Sweeney-R)- Seat was previously represented by Jerry Solomon-R was a conservative Republican senator. and NY-24(OPEN-seat due to Moderate Republican Sherry Boehlert-R retiring.-R). In 2008. Hall(NY-19) and Gillibrand(NY-20) won re-election easily. Arcuri(NY-24) won re-election by a narrow margin. we also picked up NY-25(Dan Maffei-D won an open seat vacated by Jim Walsh-R- moderate Republican.) and NY-29(Eric Massa-D unseated Shotgun Randy Kuhl-R). Democrats narrowly won Gillibrand(NY-20) seat in 2009 Special Election and NY-23(Owens--D who suceeded a Moderate Republican John McHugh-R).

McHugh was not a moderate, he was a Conservative though not as right leaning as Hoffman.

McHugh is similar to Charlie Crist- a main stream conservative Republican who is Conservative on Fiscal and National Security Issues but moderate on Social Issues. and does not embarrass himself like Sarah Palin or Doug Hoffman.

How does Hoffman embarrass himself, other than generally looking goofy?

Saying "Glenn Beck is my mentor" on the radio for starters....

You're assuming that Democrats will come out to vote in races that are expected to be blowouts.  They didn't this cycle - and the Westchester and (likely) Nassau County Executives paid the price for that.  You're also assuming Cuomo will run.

Because he's a conservative, and all conservatives are goofy.

You haven't been around here a whole heck of a lot, but lemme give you a quick lesson: Never respond to anything Neal says.

You forget that he did as well as he did with just a short burst of funding and campaigning agaisnt two other candidates.  While the Republican candidate dropped out just before the election, her name was still on the ballots.  If Hoffman is nominated by the GOP in 2010, he'll have more time to campaign, he'll have the GOP funding (and not have to rely solely on contributions), and he'll be running against a candidate that voted for the House health care reform bill after campaigning against it.  I don't see how that is a bad position for him to be in.  Sounds almost like a better deal.

Dude, as much as I don't like it when someone gets called a DINO everytime they stray from liberal orthodoxy, you actually support a nutty tea bagger like Hoffman over a moderate like Owens?

 Can you name a single Democrat in a federal race you would support for election over any of their potential GOP rivals? If you're supporting Hoffman, it's clear you'd vote against Dan Boren or Gene Taylor in favor of whatever ultra-right winger the OK or MS GOP put up against them for their "liberal" support of Pelosi and Obama.

There's "conservative Democrat", then there's Zell Miller-like attention whores. Just give it up.

Now Hoffman "unconceded" and is blaming ACORN for losing. If he's the candidate again now, the gop can kiss NY-23 goodbye after this spectacle. Maybe Hoffman would be better off using the $$ for the 2010 campaign instead of a months- long legal battle which he has zero chance of winning.