Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Hash on December 05, 2009, 06:14:26 PM



Title: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on December 05, 2009, 06:14:26 PM
The first round of the Ukrainian presidential election in January 2010 is a bit more than a month away.

Main candidates:

President Viktor Yushchenko (Our Ukraine): Incumbent President, massively unpopular with an approval of like 3%. Intends to run again.
Fmr. Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych (Party of Regions): Pro-Russian crook, main opposition guy since 2004
Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (BYuT): Pro-Western rival of Yushchenko, and by now the main pro-western force.
Fmr. Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Arseniy Yatsenyuk (Front for Change): Generally pro-western 'centrist'-populist candidate. Peaked in the summer, going down now. Wants massive political change etc.
MP Petro Symonenko (Communist): Nutty Communist who notably denies the 1920s famine. Also candidate of a bunch of similar fringe parties.
Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada Volodymyr Lytvyn (Lytvyn Bloc): Incumbent speaker, member of the pro-western parliamentary majority. Populistic guy.
Serhiy Tihipko (Our Ukraine): Businessman. Kind of centrist on western/Russia divide, and is surprisingly good. I like.

Yanukovych is between 25% and 32%, Tymoshenko between 16% and 20%, Yatsenyuk is now between 6% and 8% (peaking at 15% in the summer), Lytvyn between 2% and 4%, Tihipko at 4%, Symonenko in the 3% range, Yushchenko between 2% and 3% in last of serious contenders (lol).

Yanukovych leads by a large margin in the runoff because his voting base in the east is solidified, while the west is more divided (though still favours Tymoshenko) and undecided. Apparently a lot expect her to win in the end.



Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 07, 2009, 07:14:44 PM
Sounds her last positioning towards Russia could kinda "reconcile" Eastern and Western Ukraine. Thus her large chances to win.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on December 07, 2009, 07:24:03 PM
I suspect that all of the candidates are crooks, actually. Well, other than maybe the smaller party ones (not including the incumbent!) obviously.

But it should be no surprise that Yuschenko turned out to be a lousy President. That much was always obvious.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: 12th Doctor on December 07, 2009, 07:31:26 PM
I am backing Yulia.  Any woman who can wield an sawed off AK-47 and ward of hitmen is a winner n my book.  Plus... my God... most attractive female politician of my time.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: big bad fab on December 08, 2009, 06:36:34 AM
A woman who changed the colour of her hair only for... "political" reasons ?

Yanukovych will win because if his opponents' divisions.

Isn't Tihipko quite populistic too ?
And when will he disappoints us, like Yulia in the past ?

Really, this country should have been, with Poland, the BIG EU priority since 1989.

But we are too busy with small infights between UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy; too busy with dealing with this great new member, Cyprus, and with this major fail since 1963 (Turkey), to which the EU should have said no very early and then bring in a big cooperation.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on December 08, 2009, 09:49:44 AM
A woman who changed the colour of her hair only for... "political" reasons ?

Yanukovych will win because if his opponents' divisions.

Isn't Tihipko quite populistic too ?
And when will he disappoints us, like Yulia in the past ?

Really, this country should have been, with Poland, the BIG EU priority since 1989.

But we are too busy with small infights between UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy; too busy with dealing with this great new member, Cyprus, and with this major fail since 1963 (Turkey), to which the EU should have said no very early and then bring in a big cooperation.

Well seeing how the whole eastern part of the country seems to have remained pro-Russia along the years, and knowing this is the economical force of Ukraine, whatever the EU could have done could have it work? No one will never know, but just to say that EU can't do everything if there isn't some adhesion to it.

I'm curious to know in what languages is the campaign done Ukrainian, or Ukrainian/Russian.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2009, 08:26:19 AM
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/34650/yanukovych_is_definite_frontrunner_in_ukraine

Yanukovych 29.8
Tymoshenko 14.8
Tihipko 5.7
Yatsenyuk 4.8
Yushchenko 4.3
Symonenko 2.9
Lytvyn 2.5


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 11, 2009, 12:02:27 PM
Is Our Ukraine likely to dissolve after this?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on December 11, 2009, 04:21:14 PM
Is Our Ukraine likely to dissolve after this?

Hard to say. Ukraine doesn't have political parties per se, but rather personalist movements based around a person or group. Assuming Yuschenko loses badly, I would assume his movement would fold rather quickly or become politically irrelevant.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 03, 2010, 03:56:34 AM
Yanukovych leads final polls before Jan. 17 Ukrainian election

Ukraine's presidential election campaign entered its last two weeks on Saturday with the final opinion polls predicting victory for Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych.

Ukrainian law prohibits the publication of any opinion polls less than 14 days before an election. Voting is due to take place from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. on Sunday, January 17. Campaigning finishes on the Friday, with voters given the Saturday to consider their choice in an atmosphere of quiet.

The Central Election Committee has registered 18 candidates, including Yanukovych, incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko, current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, parliamentary speaker Volodymyr Lytvyn and former Rada speaker Arseniy Yatsenyuk.

Polls predict that no candidate will secure an outright majority in the first round, with Yanukovych expected to garner around 30% to 20% for Tymoshenko.

Surveys show that the Party of Regions leader will go on to beat the prime minister in a runoff due at the start of February.

Yushchenko is expected to receive less than 5% of the first-round vote.

http://en.rian.ru/world/20100102/157448150.html

http://www.ukrainianjournal.com/index.php?w=article&id=9709


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2010, 02:47:47 AM
First round is today:

I`d say Yanukovych wins with about 33%, Tymoshenko gets 22%, Tigipko is third with 15%.

All others will have less than 10%.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2010, 12:12:45 PM
Exit Polls:

Viktor Yanukovich, generally known as a pro-Russian candidate, is in the lead in Ukraine’s Presidential Elections taking place Sunday, according to an exit poll carried out by the Russian news agency Interfax.

The poll results show that 36,1% of the Ukrainian voters have backed Yanukovich, who was defeated by incumbent Viktor Yushchenko in the same elections five years ago in the so called “Orange Revolution.”

Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko is second with 20,7% of the votes, according to Interfax, Sergei Tigipko is third with 14,9%.

Incumbent President Viktor Yushchenko has received the support of some 6,1% of the respondents in the exit poll.

http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=112050

I´m happy with my prediction ... ;)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2010, 12:36:37 PM
Turnout is down sharply compared with the 1st round of 2004:

By 3pm local time, 54% had voted in 2004 - today it was 47%.

When the polls closed at 8pm, 75% had voted.

The 2004 run-off had 81% turnout and the new run-off a month later had 77%.

Plus: Turnout was generally higher today in Yanukovich areas, while Tymoshenko and Yushchenko areas had turnout about 5% lower.

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2010, 12:47:49 PM
Some facts about election day:

A woman gave birth to triplets at polling station 84 of constituency 135, maternity hospital seven, where the polling station is located, told Interfax-Ukraine on Sunday.

"At once after polling, one of our women gave birth to two baby girls and one baby boy. Babies and mom feel well," a source in the hospital said.

...

An elderly woman died at one of the polling stations in Kharkiv.

According to a posting on the Web site of the chief department of the Interior Ministry of Ukraine in Kharkiv region, the accident occurred at polling station 73 in the Frunzensky District in Kharkiv.

The police reports that a 71 years old woman felt badly. An ambulance was called, but the woman died before the ambulance arrived.

...

The Voters' Committee of Ukraine has said that the Ukrainian presidential election will be declared legal, despite some irregularities.

The committee said that there were many cases of 'dead souls' on voter lists were registered.

"We revealed many examples of 'dead souls' in voters' lists," the committee's deputy chairman, Vitaliy Telslenko, said at a press conference in Kyiv on Sunday.

He said that before the election, the committee warned on low quality of voter lists.

He said that the lists included voters who died five, eight and even ten years ago. He said that the said cases are registered in all of the regions of Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2010, 01:10:04 PM
3 Exit polls by Ukraine TV stations:

ICTV TV COMPANY'S EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH –35.06%
TYMOSHENKO – 25.72%
TIGIPKO – 13.41%
YATSENIUK –6.87%
YUSCHENKO – 5.61%

INTER TV CHANNEL EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 36.6%,
TYMOSHENKO – 25.8%
TIGIPKO – 13.5%
YATSENIUK – 6.6%
YUSCHENKO – 5.2%

SAVIK SHUSTER STUDIO EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 34.7%,
TYMOSHENKO – 25.0%
TIGIPKO – 13.2%
YATSENIUK – 7.1%
YUSCHENKO – 5.8%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2010, 01:15:17 PM
3 more Exit Polls:

ARGUMENTY I FAKTY EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 34.7%
TYMOSHENKO – 24.8%
TIGIPKO – 11.5%
YATSENIUK – 8.9%
YUSCHENKO – 5.4%

RESEARCH & BRANDING GROUP'S EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 37.66%
TYMOSHENKO – 26.13%
TIGIPKO – 11.64%
YATSENIUK – 7.09%
YUSCHENKO – 5.12%

NATIONAL EXIT POLL:

YANUKOVYCH – 31.5%
TYMOSHENKO – 27.2%
TIGIPKO – 13.5%
YATSENIUK –7.8%
YUSCHENKO – 6.0%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 17, 2010, 01:51:20 PM
Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 17, 2010, 02:52:40 PM
Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.

If only it was so simple...

Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on January 17, 2010, 02:56:29 PM
Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

I think Ukraine is far too divided these days to allow anybody to win a mandate of 55% or more. I wouldn't be surprised if Yanukovych won, though. The pro-western experience has been, by far, a failure. And Ukraine seems to be warming up to the idea of throwing out incompetent crooks.

The geography of Tigipko and Yatsenyuk's vote will offer a better answer to the question. The east and the Donetsk basin isn't ready to vote for a westerner, and Galicia isn't ready to vote for a Russian crook.



Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: jaichind on January 17, 2010, 06:29:09 PM
With 9.29% of the votes counted
Viktor Yanukovych 39.68%
Yulia Tymoshenko  24.24%
Sergiy Tigipko        11.28%
Arseniy Yatseniuk    6.32%
Viktor Yuschenko     4.35%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on January 17, 2010, 07:07:25 PM
The differences in the Cyrillic-Latin translation of Tigipko and Yatsenyuk's names are quite fun, especially the former.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: platypeanArchcow on January 17, 2010, 07:30:32 PM
where the difference is between Russian and Ukrainian pronunciation.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 17, 2010, 10:12:25 PM
where the difference is between Russian and Ukrainian pronunciation.

Yep. And in a few cases also between Ukranian and Russian spelling (though in this case the spelling differences are minor w/ last names - sometimes they are pretty huge, especially w/ first names). You are also likely to see very different names for regions (e.g., Mykolaiv vs. Nikolaev).


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 17, 2010, 10:24:33 PM
W/ 37.43% counted it is

Yanukovych 36.93%
Tymoshenko 24.56%
Tihipko 12.82%
Yatseniuk 6.68%
Yushchenko 4.88%
Symonenko 3.69%
Lytvyn 2.45%
everyone else peanuts

Looking at what has reported, I'd say the final result should have Yanukovych slightly under 36% and Tymoshenko slightly over 25%, w/ the difference just a bit more than the 10% that Tymoshenko should be able to gain in the second round. It's going to be a n interesting election again, but, I'd say, Yanukovych wins in the end w/51-52%
 


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Meeker on January 17, 2010, 11:14:43 PM
http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: 2952-0-0 on January 17, 2010, 11:22:53 PM
Is there anywhere in the history of the world where the incumbent performs so poorly while running for re-election?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: platypeanArchcow on January 17, 2010, 11:31:18 PM
Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 17, 2010, 11:54:45 PM
Is there anywhere in the history of the world where the incumbent performs so poorly while running for re-election?

Probably, not. Though he should clear 5% in the end. And he does seem to manage to win a few of the electoral districts.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 17, 2010, 11:55:55 PM
Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet' :)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 17, 2010, 11:56:38 PM
http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

In Ukrainian :)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: platypeanArchcow on January 18, 2010, 12:20:56 AM
Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet' :)

I've read about the first, yes.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 12:40:00 AM
54.81% reporting. Both leaders a bit down.

Yanukovych 36.63%
Tymoshenko 24.39%
Tihipko 13.11%
Yatseniuk 6.84%
Yushchenko 4.87%
Symonenko 3.63%
Lytvyn 2.38%

I still think the final gap will be about 1% smaller.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2010, 03:27:02 AM
With 75% of the votes counted:

Viktor Yanukovych: 35.96%
Yulia Tymoshenko: 24.68%
Sergiy Tigipko: 13.00%
Arseniy Yatseniuk: 6.96%
Viktor Yuschenko: 5.24%

Turnout: 67%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2010, 03:29:52 AM
Kyiv, January 18 (Interfax-Ukraine) – European Parliament observers have recorded no serious violations in the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine, and said the polls were democratic and open, European Parliament observer Rebecca Harms said in an interview with Germany's international broadcaster Deutsche Welle on Monday.

"I have no doubt to think that manipulations were orchestrated in the presidential election," she said.

Harms pointed to the good organization of work by polling stations in Kyiv, which she had visited. She said that there were also no problems with voting at home.

"What I've observed is most likely the evidence of fair and transparent elections. The vote has been prepared very well here in Kyiv," Harms said.

She also said that there had also been no complaints from other European Parliament observers.

"It was unexpected that such a great number of Georgian observers wanted to monitor the election. No country sends so many observers. I have certain doubt. In my opinion, this story is a bit exaggerated, and I wouldn't attach such significance to it," she said.

She said that if all international observers confirm that the election was democratic, then all presidential candidates should recognize the election returns so that a second round runoff is also held in line with the "rules of the game."

Speaking about exit poll results, Harms said that they are evidence of the disillusionment of voters who have pinned high hopes on Viktor Yuschenko five years ago.

"People are very disappointed with Viktor Yuschenko and with Yuschenko's and Tymoshenko's ability to cooperate. If the former 'orange' voters voted for Yanukovych or [Sergiy] Tigipko, or other candidates, then I think that this is due to the fact that the leaders of the 'orange' camp have failed to give confidence to the people," she said.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 18, 2010, 04:14:42 AM
Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

I think Ukraine is far too divided these days to allow anybody to win a mandate of 55% or more.

Except if the West abstains even more than the East... ;)
We'll see... You know that I like to make bold predictions sometimes, that prove, very often,... wrong !


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on January 18, 2010, 06:42:14 AM
Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet' :)
Translayshe or must I try and understand on my own?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on January 18, 2010, 07:57:39 AM
Yanukovych will win with 55+ because he's now seen as a "stable" candidate, more "conservative" in the everyday meaning of the word.

I think Ukraine is far too divided these days to allow anybody to win a mandate of 55% or more.

Except if the West abstains even more than the East... ;)
We'll see... You know that I like to make bold predictions sometimes, that prove, very often,... wrong !

Reports of low turnout in the west were greatly exaggerated. Turnout was highest in the two extreme points: Donetsk and surroundings and Galicia.

Yanukovych did poll 9% or so in Galicia, which is higher than his result in the 2004 runoffs there. Indicates that some westerners has voted for him, probably an indicator of the stability he represents.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: GMantis on January 18, 2010, 08:04:48 AM
Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet' :)
Translayshe or must I try and understand on my own?
Čerstvý chléb means fresh bread in Czech, but callous bread in Russian. But I don't get the other examples - as far as I can see, they mean "to stink" in both languages.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2010, 08:19:13 AM
Results of the 1st round by oblast (region):

()

Red: Yanukovych
Green: Tymoshenko


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on January 18, 2010, 08:22:55 AM
Where be results by oblast again?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 18, 2010, 08:30:06 AM

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp313pt001f01=700.html

I guess this will also be the map of the run-off, which would be identical to 2004.

Maybe Yanukovych has a very slight chance to flip Kirovohrad, but that's it.

Zakarpat is an interesting place as well, Yuschenko got "only" 67% there in 2004, in a region that was normally 90%+ for him and where Russians account for only 2% of the population.

Any reason why the Ukrainians there vote for Yanukovych by a bigger margin than elsewhere in the west ?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on January 18, 2010, 08:32:08 AM
Historically it wasn't part of Ukraine, if that helps.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: GMantis on January 18, 2010, 08:36:07 AM

http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp313pt001f01=700.html

I guess this will also be the map of the run-off, which would be identical to 2004.

Maybe Yanukovych has a very slight chance to flip Kirovohrad, but that's it.

Zakarpat is an interesting place as well, Yuschenko got "only" 67% there in 2004, in a region that was normally 90%+ for him and where Russians account for only 2% of the population.

Any reason why the Ukrainians there vote for Yanukovych by a bigger margin than elsewhere in the west ?
Maybe because they're not really Ukrainians?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rusyns
To summarize, they are mostly Uniates, with a somewhat different language and were also under Hungarian and not Polish influence like most of the Ukraine. They feel somewhat distinctive themselves and have sought autonomy in the past. Probably the rather strong Ukrainian nationalism of the current government have alienated them.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on January 18, 2010, 08:43:25 AM
The entire Ukraine is a sea of a particularly ugly shade of teal on that map. No red area is historically part of Ukraine (though they have a lot of Ukrainians living in them - even the essentially purely Russian-speaking areas at the eastern end had pluralities of Ukrainian self-identifiers since before Stalin drew the modern boundary.)

The surprising thing on that map is not that the Rusyns didn't like Tymoshenko. It's that she wins the Ukrainian part of the Bukovina. :P


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 08:49:45 AM
Being Uniate isn't what distinguishes the Transcarpatians: so are the Galicians, that's, in part, what defiens them so anti-Russian. But Rusyns are not quite Ukrainian, and there are lots of Rusyns in Transcarpatia. And there are also lots of Hungarians, Slovaks, etc., etc.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 08:51:26 AM
Wow, Ukrainian is hilarious.  (If you're Russian, of course.)  The word for "independent [of party]" appears to mean something like "beyond parties", sort of in a spatial way, like what you see to your left when you've walked past all the parties.  And the word for "nominated by [a party]" is cognate to a Russian word meaning "stick out [e.g. your tongue]".

Guess, what čerstvý chléb means in Czech. And, for that matter, how do czechs rank the roots for Russian smells: pakhnut', voniat', smerdet' :)
Translayshe or must I try and understand on my own?
Čerstvý chléb means fresh bread in Czech, but callous bread in Russian. But I don't get the other examples - as far as I can see, they mean "to stink" in both languages.

Voniat' means to stink in Russian, but its cognate means to smell in Czech (or, at least, in Slovak). Pakhnut' means to smell in Russian, but its cognate means to stink in the Western tongues. The stinking ranking is reversed :)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 08:55:09 AM
93.6% in. The things are converging to the final result - and to the threshold 10% :)

Yanukovych 35.39%
Tymoshenko 24.95%
Tihipko 13.02%
Yatseniuk 6.97%
Yushchenko 5.50%
Symonenko 3.54%
Lytvyn 2.33%
Tiahnybok 1.45%
Hrytsenko 1.21%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

It's going to be a very close run-off. My forecast: Yanukovich  wins by a bit under 51%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: GMantis on January 18, 2010, 08:56:38 AM
The entire Ukraine is a sea of a particularly ugly shade of teal on that map. No red area is historically part of Ukraine (though they have a lot of Ukrainians living in them - even the essentially purely Russian-speaking areas at the eastern end had pluralities of Ukrainian self-identifiers since before Stalin drew the modern boundary.)

The surprising thing on that map is not that the Rusyns didn't like Tymoshenko. It's that she wins the Ukrainian part of the Bukovina. :P
Even more ironically Yanukovych won one of the electoral regions in this area and it is the only Romanian and Moldavian majority region of the four :).
Chernivtisi Oblast results (http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp3131pt001f01=700pt00_t001f01=700pid100=73.html)
Definitions of regions (http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernivtsi_Oblast#Population_and_Demographics


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on January 18, 2010, 08:58:42 AM
The entire Ukraine is a sea of a particularly ugly shade of teal on that map. No red area is historically part of Ukraine (though they have a lot of Ukrainians living in them - even the essentially purely Russian-speaking areas at the eastern end had pluralities of Ukrainian self-identifiers since before Stalin drew the modern boundary.)

The surprising thing on that map is not that the Rusyns didn't like Tymoshenko. It's that she wins the Ukrainian part of the Bukovina. :P
Even more ironically Yanukovych won one of the electoral regions in this area and it is the only Romanian and Moldavian majority region of the four :).
So I noticed as well.
Quote
Definitions of regions (http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernivtsi_Oblast#Population_and_Demographics
That's the piece of info I was missing. :D


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on January 18, 2010, 12:54:53 PM
To summarize, they are mostly Uniates, with a somewhat different language and were also under Hungarian and not Polish influence like most of the Ukraine. They feel somewhat distinctive themselves and have sought autonomy in the past. Probably the rather strong Ukrainian nationalism of the current government have alienated them.

Uniates are not only in Carpathia, they're also all over Galicia which is the most pro-west region in Ukraine. Galicia has always been a hotspot of Ukrainian nationalism or anti-Russian dissidence. Vienna encouraged Ukrainian nationalism to ward off Russian nationalism in the region, Poland's control before that led to the growth of intellectualism in urban and wealthy circles.

Galicia (and Uniates) have always voted in huge numbers for Tymoshenko, Yuschenko and so forth.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 01:05:01 PM
98.99% in. Almost there. Again slightly closer:

Yanukovych 35.39%
Tymoshenko 25.01%
Tihipko 13.01%
Yatseniuk 6.98%
Yushchenko 5.48%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.34%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

So, assuming Tymoshenko should be able to gain 10%, we are going to be in for another nailbiter - the current margin is 10.38%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 01:37:40 PM
99.31% in. One of the last batches from the East has come in.

Yanukovych 35.41%
Tymoshenko 24.98%
Tihipko 13.05%
Yatseniuk 6.95%
Yushchenko 5.46%
Symonenko 3.54%
Lytvyn 2.34%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

Most of what's left is in Kirovohrad, Sumy and Cherkasy - should be slightly better for Timoshenko, then for Yanukovych


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 02:41:27 PM
99.69% in.

Yanukovych 35.38%
Tymoshenko 25.01%
Tihipko 13.05%
Yatseniuk 6.95%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

The final distance will be slightly smaller, as Donets'k, Luhansk, Crimea, Sebastopol and Mykolayiv have reported completely now. So, the final gap should be about 10.35%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 18, 2010, 05:41:16 PM
http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

It's in mojibake, wtf?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 06:38:09 PM
99.76% in.

Yanukovych 35.36%
Tymoshenko 25.02%
Tihipko 13.05%
Yatseniuk 6.95%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

The gap is down to 10.34%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 07:29:15 PM
http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

It's in mojibake, wtf?

It's not in Unicode, unfortunately. Choose Cyrillic (Windows) encoding and you will be able to read it, if you know the alphabet, of course.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Bo on January 18, 2010, 09:15:14 PM
http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

It's in mojibake, wtf?

It's not in Unicode, unfortunately. Choose Cyrillic (Windows) encoding and you will be able to read it, if you know the alphabet, of course.

I'm just wondering if you're Russian or Ukranian? You seem to be very interested in those two countries.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 18, 2010, 09:33:55 PM
http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

It's in mojibake, wtf?

It's not in Unicode, unfortunately. Choose Cyrillic (Windows) encoding and you will be able to read it, if you know the alphabet, of course.

I'm just wondering if you're Russian or Ukranian? You seem to be very interested in those two countries.

This has been discussed here many times :) Let's put it this way: I was born a citizen of the USSR :) But I am Mexican now.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: platypeanArchcow on January 18, 2010, 10:26:25 PM
Any reason Yuschenko did so well in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk?  (I typed "Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk", then considered editing to "Lwów".  Does that make me a bad person?)  He doesn't appear to be a favorite son or anything.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on January 18, 2010, 11:18:20 PM
http://www.cvk.gov.ua/vp2010/wp0011.html

The Ukrainian results website is actually pretty good; it displays a lot of information in a lot of different and interesting ways. Everything is in Cyrillic though.

It's in mojibake, wtf?

It's not in Unicode, unfortunately. Choose Cyrillic (Windows) encoding and you will be able to read it, if you know the alphabet, of course.

Thanks. :)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 19, 2010, 12:45:43 AM
Any reason Yuschenko did so well in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk?  (I typed "Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk", then considered editing to "Lwów".  Does that make me a bad person?)  He doesn't appear to be a favorite son or anything.

Well, he did study in Ternopil, I believe. But, mostly, it is just that over the last 5+ years he got positioned as a Ukrainian nationalist (he isn't, really) and a westernizer. Yanukovych is too Russian there, and Tymoshenko too lefty. So, for lack of a better candidate of their own, Halicians have stuck w/ him.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on January 19, 2010, 03:18:38 AM
Yuschenko kind of ruined his legacy. He could've retired and people would've only thought of him as the hero of the Orange Revolution and forgot his actual presidency. But now...


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 19, 2010, 03:33:59 AM
I think there will be much wasted votes in the second round and it will affect more Tymoshenko than Yanukovych.

Isn't the very small result of Symonenko a bit surprising ?
Is he "out of fashion" now or did Tihipko and Yanukovych steal some of his usual votes ?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on January 19, 2010, 05:09:34 AM
Any reason Yuschenko did so well in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk?  (I typed "Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk", then considered editing to "Lwów".
How about "Lemberg"? :P


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 19, 2010, 10:16:12 AM
Symonenko got, what he normally gets there, I believe. This is the Commie electorate: it's stable.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 19, 2010, 10:17:55 AM
Almost there. 99.99% in

Yanukovych 35.32%
Tymoshenko 25.05%
Tihipko 13.06%
Yatseniuk 6.96%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%

Everyone else under 0.5% each

The gap is down to 10.27%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 19, 2010, 10:19:10 AM
Any reason Yuschenko did so well in Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk?  (I typed "Lvov and Ivano-Frankovsk", then considered editing to "Lwów".
How about "Lemberg"? :P

Yuriev is also an option :)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on January 19, 2010, 01:48:30 PM
All 100% reporting. Done

Yanukovych 35.32%
Tymoshenko 25.05%
Tihipko 13.06%
Yatseniuk 6.96%
Yushchenko 5.45%
Symonenko 3.55%
Lytvyn 2.35%
Tiahnybok 1.43%
Hrytsenko 1.20%
Bohoslovs'ka 0.41%
Moroz 0.38%
Kostenko 0.22%
Suprun 0.19%
Protyvsikh 0.16%
Pabat 0.14%
Ratushniak 0.12%
Brods'ki 0.06%
Riabokon' 0.03%
None of the above 2.20%
Invalid 1.64%



Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Joe Republic on January 19, 2010, 02:37:23 PM
What a difference five years makes...

Yushchenko in fifth place, not even breaking 6%?  Wow.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: big bad fab on January 19, 2010, 04:08:52 PM
Symonenko got, what he normally gets there, I believe. This is the Commie electorate: it's stable.


Sure, we are no longer in 1999 (22%), but it was still 5% in 2004.
3.5% is even less.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on January 19, 2010, 04:24:21 PM
Symonenko got, what he normally gets there, I believe. This is the Commie electorate: it's stable.


Sure, we are no longer in 1999 (22%), but it was still 5% in 2004.
3.5% is even less.

I suppose Tigipko (and Yanukovych) siphoned off a number of his votes. Tigipko placed second in the Donetsk area, where Symonenko and the CPU usually placed second.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on January 22, 2010, 02:13:27 PM
Who are the voters of the runner-up candidates most likely to back in the second round ?

I guess Tigipko voters will mainly back Yanukovych, and Yatseniuk and Yushenko voters will back Tymoshenko.

There`s new polling data from the Exit Poll about who these 1st round voters will back in the 2nd:

The gap between presidential candidates Viktor Yanukovych and Yulia Tymoshenko will close significantly in the second round of the presidential election on February 7, and they may each have a fifty-fifty chance of winning the run-off vote, according to the pollsters of the Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute of Social Studies.

"A greater part of the electorate who supported other candidates in the first round are, to some extent, inclined to support Tymoshenko. If the ballot were held today, around 50-51% would have voted for Yanukovych, and some 45-46% for Tymoshenko," Chair of the Yaremenko Ukrainian Institute of Social Studies Olha Balakireva said at a press conference at Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.

She said that the "issue could also concern a fifty-fifty option." She said that those who had not supported Tymoshenko and Yanukovych would most likely vote for "the lesser evil."

"This will most likely be the vote 'against,' [someone] rather than a vote 'for,' [someone]" Balakireva said.

She also said that there are certain voters who will go to the polls and will support neither Yanukovych nor Tymoshenko.

Balakireva said that according to a survey, 29% of Sergiy Tigipko's supporters are ready to vote for Tymoshenko in the second round of the election, and 37% for Yanukovych. As for Arseniy Yatseniuk's supporters, 45% of them are ready to vote for Tymoshenko and 18% for Yanukovych, while 52% of Viktor Yuschenko's supporters are more inclined to vote for Tymoshenko, and 8% for Yanukovych, she said.

She also said that a portion of the voters remained undecided. The margin of error is 2.2%.

The Choice 2010 survey was held at 402 polling stations on election day in order to receive a high level of data accuracy. Voters were surveyed immediately after they left polling stations. A total of 804 interviewers questioned 17,512 voters who casted their ballots. Twenty-four percent of voters declined to participate in the survey.

http://www.citylife.donetsk.ua/news/show/10303


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on January 22, 2010, 04:11:54 PM
Not surprising. Like in Chile, the large margin of the first shouldn't blind anybody into thinking that the runoff is a slam-dunk. The statistical similarities to the Chilean election are quite interesting here... though I hope Yanukovych doesn't win.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: UkrToday on February 02, 2010, 07:16:38 PM
The above regions maps are misleading.  Unlike the US presidential elections Ukraine's president is elected by a national vote not a regional based college distribution.  For more detailed representation and results in English please refer to  the Ukrainian online elections map that includes the 2004 Presidential election, the 2006 and 2007 Parliamentary elections and the current 2010 Presidential election.

http://ukrainetoday.googlepages.com/UAElections.html (http://ukrainetoday.googlepages.com/UAElections.html)

The regions (Oblasts) are administrative only they vary significantly in size and in the number of constituents.  The smallest Oblast/Region has less then 500,000 votes whilst Donetsk has over 3.5 Million constituents and represents over 10 percent of the total electorate. A comparison based on the percentage of vote per region bares no relationshi0p to the overall outcome of the election or to each other Oblast/Region unless you display the results in relation to the total national vote.

The maps below show the results of each candidate based on the percentage of the total national vote.  


()

()
()
()
()()


http://ukrainetoday.blogspot.com (http://ukrainetoday.blogspot.com)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 03, 2010, 05:29:38 AM
The above regions maps are misleading.  Unlike the US presidential elections Ukraine's president is elected by a national vote not a regional based college distribution.
Dude, we know that. Not everybody is as dumb as the US Constitution. :)

Welcome!


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2010, 04:35:15 AM
Presidential runoff gets underway in Ukraine

The second round of the fifth presidential election got underway in Ukraine on Sunday, February 7.

The voters are to decide who will head the state for the next five years - Leader of the Party of Regions Viktor Yanukovych or incumbent Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

The winning candidate is the one that gains a simple majority of the vote.

Polling stations opened at 0800, and will remain open until 2000.

In Ukraine, over 33,000 polling stations have been set up and will be run by 225 district election commissions. A total of 113 polling stations have been formed in foreign countries.

A total of 3,780 official foreign observers will monitor the February 7 election.

Observers of the European Parliament, the Inter-Parliamentary Assembly of the Commonwealth of Independent States (IPA CIS), the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) have recorded no serious violations in the first round of the presidential election in Ukraine held on January 17, and said the polls were democratic and open.

Eighteen presidential candidates were battling for the country's top office in the first round of the election. Party of Regions leader Viktor Yanukovych garnered 35.32% of the vote (8,686,642 votes) and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko came second, capturing 25.05% of the vote (6,159,810 votes), according to the Central Election Commission's official result of the January 17 presidential election in Ukraine.

Sergiy Tigipko finished third with 13.05% (3,211,198) of the vote. A total of 2.2% (542,819) of voters voted for none of the 18 candidates.

A total of 36,968,041 people were included on the voting lists.

The number of voters who participated in the election was 24,588,268, and the number of ballots declared invalid was 450,765.

At the same time, European parliamentarians expressed concern on February 4 over last minute changes in the Ukrainian election laws. Two members of the European Parliament, Elmar Brok (European People's Party) and Charles Tannock (European Conservatives and Reformists) urged EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton to react and express protest because this law changes the election and election monitoring regulations.

EU High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton called on Ukraine's presidential candidates to ensure that the will of the people can once more be expressed at the polls on February 7.

On February 3, the Ukrainian parliament adopted a package of amendments to the law on presidential election, excluding a requirement that there be a quorum for election commissions. The amendments drop the requirement that a session of an electoral commission shall be regarded valid, if no less than two thirds of its members are present. They also imply certain changes in the procedure of forming the commissions. Elections commissions of higher levels shall be allowed to make decisions belonging to the terms of reference of a commissioner of a lower tier, should the lower tier commission be inactive. On polling day such matters shall be dealt with without delay.

On February 4, the amended election law was enacted by outgoing President Viktor Yuschenko.

The law came into force on February 5 and on the same day the parliamentary faction of the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) filed a plea with the Constitutional Court of Ukraine to declare unconstitutional the amendments to the presidential election law.

The results of seven nationwide exit polls are expected to be released just after the polling stations close at 2000.

The Central Election Commission is to release the official results of the first round of voting within ten days, but no later than the third day after the receipt of all election protocols from district election commissions.

The newly elected president should assume office no later than 30 days after the official publication of the final election results.

http://www.interfax.com.ua/eng/pr2010/287417778


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2010, 05:03:45 AM
By 11.00 am, turnout was about 3 times higher in eastern Yanukovych areas like Luhansk and Donetsk (22%) than in western Tymoshenko areas like Transcarpathia and Rivne (6%).


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2010, 06:29:11 AM
By 11.00 am, turnout was about 3 times higher in eastern Yanukovych areas like Luhansk and Donetsk (22%) than in western Tymoshenko areas like Transcarpathia and Rivne (6%).

This has moderated a bit now, as most electoral districts have reported their 11 am numbers:

Still, Transcarpathia has the lowest turnout at 9.4%, followed by Ivano-Frankivsk at 11.7% and the capital Kiev at 12.0%.

The highest turnout is in Luhansk at 24.3%, followed by Donezk at 22.8% and Mykolajiw at 20.7%.

The national rate was 17.5%, about 0.5% higher than in round 1.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 07, 2010, 06:39:17 AM
Although all of Ukraine is in the same time zone (EET, two hours ahead of GMT, one hour ahead of CMT. Seven hours ahead of Forum Time for you Amayricans) I can't help but wonder if the considerable difference in de facto time (you know, sun rising/setting hours) impacts that somewhat.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 07, 2010, 06:47:19 AM
Upon checking: It's not as bad as I thought it might be. Difference in sunrise times seems to be about ~65-70 minutes between the western and eastern ends of the country.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tzdiff-Europe-winter.png


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2010, 06:47:49 AM
Although all of Ukraine is in the same time zone (EET, two hours ahead of GMT, one hour ahead of CMT. Seven hours ahead of Forum Time for you Amayricans) I can't help but wonder if the considerable difference in de facto time (you know, sun rising/setting hours) impacts that somewhat.

This is probably balanced by the temperatures ... ;)

In Donezk for example it has -15°C today, while in Lviv it has only -5°C ...


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 11:46:44 AM
Don't forget it's Sunday. In the morning the Wessies are in church, while the atheist Ossies have time to vote. Still,  every indication the West is behind, but the gap is always the highest in the morning.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2010, 12:21:36 PM
Overall turnout in Ukraine at 3pm was 49.9%, up by 2.3% compared with the first round.

Total turnout is now likely to be around 70% for the day.

Highest 3pm turnout: Donetsk (57.4%), Luhansk (57.1%), Zaporizhia (52.8%)

Lowest 3pm turnout: Transcarpathia (35.3%), Chernivtsi (44.5%), Kiev (44.9%)


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 07, 2010, 01:09:13 PM
6 Exit Polls:

Yanukovych: 49-50%
Tymoshenko: 44-46%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Meeker on February 07, 2010, 01:26:52 PM
Looks like the crook won this time.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on February 07, 2010, 01:30:16 PM
Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 07, 2010, 02:52:21 PM
Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.

The good ole one if so.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Silent Hunter on February 07, 2010, 03:36:12 PM
Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.

The pro-Russian guy won. That's not the best outcome in some ways.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it] on February 07, 2010, 03:37:56 PM
Looks like the crook won this time.

Thats not helpful. Both candidates are crooks.

The pro-Russian guy won. That's not the best outcome in some ways.

They would have less natural gas problems perhaps...


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 07, 2010, 03:52:14 PM
Looks like the crook won this time.

Right now the crook as President would be better than Timoshenko, who would in case of her win wield an absolute power. And she's no saint either. There would be at least balance than Kuchma bis in a skirt.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 07:10:57 PM
W/ 40.2% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 50.09%
Timoshenko 44.39%
Against all of the above 4.4%
Invalid 1.11%

Given the reporting pattern, I'd forecast, at this point, Yanukovich to win w/ a bit under 49% against Timoshenko at around 46%. I sincerely hope it's not any closer - otherwise, it's going to be ugly.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 07:49:07 PM
W/ 49.6% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 49.52%%
Timoshenko 44.85%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.12%



Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 08:43:24 PM
W/ 61.71% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 49.21%%
Timoshenko 45.15%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.13%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 09:11:51 PM
W/ 67.21% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.98%%
Timoshenko 45.37%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.14%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 09:52:41 PM
W/ 74.43% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.92%%
Timoshenko 45.42%
Against all of the above 4.49%
Invalid 1.16%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 10:57:29 PM
W/ 83.95% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.46%%
Timoshenko 45.87%
Against all of the above 4.47%
Invalid 1.17%

But looking at what's left, the gap is likely to grow again.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Bo on February 07, 2010, 11:15:16 PM
It looks like Yakunovich will win (forgive my spelling errors). Oh darn!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 07, 2010, 11:52:11 PM
An interesting detail is, there are really no truly marginal regions in Ukraine. The weakest pro-Tymoshenko region is Zakarpat'ska (100% reporting): 51.66% Tymoshenko, 41.55% Yanukovich. The weakest pro-Yanukovich region is Kherson (94.73% reporting): 59.45% Yanukovich, 34.22% Tymoshenko. There is literally nothing inbetween these two.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 08, 2010, 02:42:01 AM
Results by Oblast (Region):

()

Yanukovych: Blue
Tymoshenko: Green


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 08, 2010, 05:14:03 AM
It's not as if that map showed anything we yet need to know.

sort of waiting for the emergence of a political movement advocating a clean divorce, actually. Though what would the southeastern country be called? Tavriya? Novorossiya would be historically accuratish as well, but probably not go down so well...

ag, do you know how the Crimea Tatars vote?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: SPQR on February 08, 2010, 06:11:36 AM
Ukrainian electoral maps are so boring.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on February 08, 2010, 07:49:57 AM
Ukrainian electoral maps are so boring.

Well, yeah, it's like the most polarized country electorally in Europe and one of the most polarized countries in the world (some African countries have elections which are run on ethnic lines and end up being very polarized. Sierra Leone comes to mind).


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 08, 2010, 08:54:02 AM
If I am not mistaken, Crimean Tatars are VERY orange. They might be the bulk of Timoshenko's vote in Crimea. In fact, whatever shell Ukrainian nationalist organizations survive there, they are not infrequently manned by the Tatars. There is a small internal opposition, that would be pro-Russian, but overall this is a very organized community - and very pro-Ukrainian.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 08, 2010, 08:58:24 AM
Actually, it's not that simple. Crimea (bar the Tatars) is outright pro-Russian, but the rest of the country has a clear Ukrainian self-identification. The mining areas - Donets'k and Luhansk, of  course, are very regionalist, but already the big cities, such as Khar'kiv and Dnipropetrovs'k are much less so. Yes, the religious and linguistic divide is strong (and, largely, runs on the border of colonization: you can read the last 350-400 years of Ukrainian history off this map), but it is far from clear that anywhere, other than in Crimea, a secession referendum would be successful. 


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 08, 2010, 09:18:35 AM
W/ 98.65% of precincts reporting, we have, so far

Yanukovich 48.63%%
Timoshenko 45.78%
Against all of the above 4.38%
Invalid 1.19%

The bulk of what's left is Crimea and Luhans'k. It's going to grow.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on February 08, 2010, 09:21:48 AM
Actually, it's not that simple. Crimea (bar the Tatars) is outright pro-Russian, but the rest of the country has a clear Ukrainian self-identification. The mining areas - Donets'k and Luhansk, of  course, are very regionalist, but already the big cities, such as Khar'kiv and Dnipropetrovs'k are much less so. Yes, the religious and linguistic divide is strong (and, largely, runs on the border of colonization: you can read the last 350-400 years of Ukrainian history off this map), but it is far from clear that anywhere, other than in Crimea, a secession referendum would be successful. 

Yeah, it's an important point that. Only Crimea cannot be considered Ukrainian at any rate, other areas are Russian-speaking Ukrainian areas, while Crimea is not Ukrainian and it was one of the weakest regions in the independence referendum(s) in the early 90s (which easily got over 80% in all other regions but only 55% or so in Crimea)...


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 08, 2010, 11:33:23 AM
Actually, it's not that simple. Crimea (bar the Tatars) is outright pro-Russian, but the rest of the country has a clear Ukrainian self-identification. The mining areas - Donets'k and Luhansk, of  course, are very regionalist, but already the big cities, such as Khar'kiv and Dnipropetrovs'k are much less so. Yes, the religious and linguistic divide is strong (and, largely, runs on the border of colonization: you can read the last 350-400 years of Ukrainian history off this map), but it is far from clear that anywhere, other than in Crimea, a secession referendum would be successful. 
Which is, of course, also why secession seems a much more reasonable idea than joining Russia.

Only Crimea cannot be considered Ukrainian at any rate, other areas are Russian-speaking Ukrainian areas
Not quite. The people are Russian speaking Ukrainians (a majority of them, anyhow), but the area is not part of the historical country Ukraine. It's the old Crimea Khanate - although outside the Crimea itself (and into adjoining parts of Eastern Ukraine proper) it was almost devoid of population just 300 years ago. A majority of the settlers after that came from Ukraine.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 08, 2010, 01:24:37 PM
Which is, of course, also why secession seems a much more reasonable idea than joining Russia.

The problem is, there is little reason for it to secede as a single country: there is little that unites it, aside from the relationship w/ Ukraine proper. Odessa, Khar'kiv, Simferopil and Donets'k don't have that much in common between them. Crimea would go Russian, and the rest would, as likely as not, split into 2 to 4 pieces. That is, probably, the reason why no major secessionist movement is emerging: there is no unifying idea of an alternative nationhood. Federalization of Ukraine would make a lot more sense.

 


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 08, 2010, 01:29:38 PM
Yah, I guess so.

And then, of course, there is also the prospect of winning elections nationally. If that were impossible (for either side) we might see a whole different dynamic.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Hash on February 08, 2010, 04:09:31 PM
Now that Yanukovych has won, you might get new parliamentary elections or Yanukovych manages to get a PR majority in Parliament (probably through the support of the Communists and Lytvyn's party - the latter of which is now in the Tymoshenko government).


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 08, 2010, 07:38:43 PM
Now that Yanukovych has won, you might get new parliamentary elections or Yanukovych manages to get a PR majority in Parliament (probably through the support of the Communists and Lytvyn's party - the latter of which is now in the Tymoshenko government).

A new Rada election is not guaranteed to give the Ossie majority. Note: Yanukovich got under 49% in a one-on-one race, w/ sizeable "non-of-the-above" vote. The electoral system for the Rada is PR w/ a 3% threshold, so a lot would depend on whose vote's getting splintered below that. And minor parties will still get to be decisive.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: jaichind on February 08, 2010, 07:57:38 PM
Yanukovych's better bet might to be get enough defections from the current Timoshenko led MPs to switch over to support a coalition led by the Party of Regions.  Back on Feb 3 when Ukraine’s parliament approved changes to the election law three days before the final round of the presidential election which was opposed by Timoshenko is already a sign that she can longer command a real majority.  Now that Yanukovych seems to have won will make that pull even greater.  I reckon that the reason why Timoshenko has not cried fraud yet given how close the election was is that she wants to made a deal with Yanukovych where she stays on as PM.  She will threaten to undermine the result if she does not get her way.  I suspect Yanukovych will call her bluff by breaking her party with defections and her demonstrations will most likely fizzle out given the disunity between the  Yushchenko and Timoshenko in the old Orange coalition. 



Now that Yanukovych has won, you might get new parliamentary elections or Yanukovych manages to get a PR majority in Parliament (probably through the support of the Communists and Lytvyn's party - the latter of which is now in the Tymoshenko government).


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 09, 2010, 03:01:10 AM
With 99.9% of the votes counted and with the rest mainly from Yanukovych areas, the final results will be:

Yanukovych: 49.0% (12.5 Mio. votes)
Tymoshenko: 45.4% (11.6 Mio. votes)
Against both: 4.4%
Invalid: 1.2%

Turnout: 69%


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Tender Branson on February 12, 2010, 02:46:22 AM
Map by district:

()


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: minionofmidas on February 12, 2010, 07:36:22 AM
What's with the Yanukovich pockets near the Belorussian border? Belorussians?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 12, 2010, 04:22:42 PM
What's with the Yanukovich pockets near the Belorussian border? Belorussians?

There are four enclaves on the northern border. The two easternmost pockets are actually on the Russian border, in the Sumy province - these are Russians. The single-town enclave in the center is, I believe, Slavutych: the new town build to house the employees of the  Chernobyl power station who continued working there after the station blew up.  The westernmost group of three districts and 1 town is, it seems, part of the Polesia, which is the swamplands on the Ukraine-Belorussian border w/ ethnically transitional or even outright distinct population (neighboring districts there, which are also Polesia, though they did vote Timoshenko, seem to have done so in smaller numbers).


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: Хahar 🤔 on February 13, 2010, 02:57:53 AM
Was looking at the first round maps and noticed how well Yushchenko did in Kiev (relatively speaking). Why?


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: GMantis on February 13, 2010, 04:11:21 PM
I wonder from they got election results by district. It certainly wasn't from the central election website.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: ag on February 15, 2010, 01:04:12 PM
I might be wrong, but I believe they matched the precinct data w/ districts.


Title: Re: Ukraine 2010
Post by: CultureKing on February 15, 2010, 08:42:08 PM
That is one polarized country.