Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2012 Elections => Topic started by: Phony Moderate on December 20, 2009, 06:57:31 PM



Title: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 20, 2009, 06:57:31 PM
I can't see America re-electing a black President.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Rob on December 20, 2009, 07:00:36 PM
I can't see America re-electing a black President.

Three years out from the next presidential election? Great prediction, genius.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Phony Moderate on December 20, 2009, 07:01:43 PM
I can't see America re-electing a black President.

Three years out from the next presidential election? Great prediction, genius.

2 years and 10 and a half months.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Rob on December 20, 2009, 07:08:42 PM
Time to join MENSA!


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Sewer on December 20, 2009, 07:10:22 PM
"I can't see America electing a black President." - some guy in 2007


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 20, 2009, 07:29:36 PM
Even if you take Rasmussen out of the polling at RCP, Obama is at 49.5/44.2 (and include all the hilarious joke polls such as Bloomberg, AP, and NY Times/CBS), an approval rating that not too many predicted he would have at this stage through is presidency.

Question for the conservatives or Republicans on this board: which event would you rather attend in November 2012 if it happens...Sarah Palin's victory party or Obama's concession speech.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Kaine for Senate '18 on December 20, 2009, 07:31:21 PM
Of course Obama's not finished.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: President Mitt on December 20, 2009, 07:34:24 PM
Even if you take Rasmussen out of the polling at RCP, Obama is at 49.5/44.2 (and include all the hilarious joke polls such as Bloomberg, AP, and NY Times/CBS), an approval rating that not too many predicted he would have at this stage through is presidency.

Question for the conservatives or Republicans on this board: which event would you rather attend in November 2012 if it happens...Sarah Palin's victory party  or Obama's concession speech.  

This  would negate the positive effects of this.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Purple State on December 20, 2009, 07:50:42 PM
Go to this approval poll tracker (http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm), go to the comparison tab and look at Obama versus Reagan.

Enough said.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl on December 20, 2009, 07:51:26 PM
Unfortunately, no. Americans are stupid.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 20, 2009, 09:34:35 PM
It really depends on if we are given a decent alternative in 2012. If it's Huckabee or Palin, no, Obama is not finished. If we are given someone who has the right experience to handle this country's problems, he is finished. There is only one person who has these qualifications.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: MasterJedi on December 20, 2009, 09:49:14 PM
I'll believe he's finished when I see him lose in 2012. Until then he always has a chance to pull something out. Even if he does win re-election he'll still be a failure, but it doesn't mean he'll lose or is finished 3 years out from the election.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Sewer on December 20, 2009, 09:54:15 PM
There is only one person who has these qualifications.

()


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 20, 2009, 09:59:04 PM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically.  Fund our troops and wars and nothing but the bare minimum for anythign else is essentially my motto. Palin would probably adopt that mindset as well.  I don't think she's losing too much sleep over the people who lack healthcare in this country.  Neither am I.

I think the assumption that Obama's approval ratings will improve once the economy improves is wrong because the people making this argument are already claiming that the economy is improving right now just as Obama's approval has continued to drop to a record-low for a President in his first year in office.  So if we accept the argument that the economy is improving right now, then you would have to accept the fact that the economy is not what is driving Obama's approval rating down.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Sewer on December 20, 2009, 10:01:14 PM
I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically.

hack


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl on December 20, 2009, 10:07:17 PM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically. 

And what about military spending?

()


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: President Mitt on December 20, 2009, 10:11:54 PM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically. 

Military Spending should be cut too. It is a large majority of American spending. If I was president, I would oppose any spending cuts into other priorities unless vast Military cuts are made.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 20, 2009, 10:47:39 PM
No cut to military spending.  I'd increase it.  Military spending boosts the economy while protecting us at the same time.  If you don't have healthcare, grab a tissue.

I'm a hawk.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: President Mitt on December 20, 2009, 10:56:34 PM
And sell ourselves out to the Military-Industrial Complex? Are you insane? That makes an all-too friendly relationship that develops between defense contractors and government forces. Government wants high military spending to keep constituents happy, and the defense industry wants to make a buck. Do you want this nation to be even more dominated by the Defense Industry?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl on December 20, 2009, 10:57:35 PM
No cut to military spending.  I'd increase it.  Military spending boosts the economy while protecting us at the same time. 
False and false.


Quote
If you don't have healthcare, grab a tissue.

I'm a hawk.
More like a dodo.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 20, 2009, 10:59:42 PM
The defense industry has been great for our country's economy.  Jobs and safety.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl on December 20, 2009, 11:03:14 PM
The defense industry has been great for our country's economy.  Jobs and safety.
No, the "defense" industry has been a source of endless deficits, debt, death, and destruction.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on December 20, 2009, 11:07:05 PM
     Military spending should be cut by 80% at bare minimum. I do agree that non-military spending should be cut massively, though.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: President Mitt on December 20, 2009, 11:08:30 PM
The amount of spending on the military is not justifiable by external threats, and it is burning through out pockets. Make major cuts everywhere, but do not leave Military spending unscathed by the red pen.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on December 20, 2009, 11:13:47 PM
The amount of spending on the military is not justifiable by external threats, and it is burning through out pockets. Make major cuts everywhere, but do not leave Military spending unscathed by the red pen.

     We spend more on our military than the next fifty countries combined. That strikes me as more than a little off. I mean, it's not like we're likely to suffer an invasion en masse anytime soon.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: President Mitt on December 20, 2009, 11:17:15 PM
The amount of spending on the military is not justifiable by external threats, and it is burning through out pockets. Make major cuts everywhere, but do not leave Military spending unscathed by the red pen.

     We spend more on our military than the next fifty countries combined. That strikes me as more than a little off. I mean, it's not like we're likely to suffer an invasion en masse anytime soon.

Exactly. And making spending cuts would not necessarily hurt the economy as poundingtherock has said. Military spending after the Korean War declined nearly 70% and the 50's were a relatively prosperous decade.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on December 20, 2009, 11:34:53 PM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically.  Fund our troops and wars and nothing but the bare minimum for anything else is essentially my motto. Palin would probably adopt that mindset as well.  I don't think she's losing too much sleep over the people who lack healthcare in this country.  Neither am I.

Someone without a conscience might be kept awake at night if a neighbor separated only by a thin wall is playing Hector Berlioz' Requiemon a very good stereo, or has a gout attack.

Quote
I think the assumption that Obama's approval ratings will improve once the economy improves is wrong because the people making this argument are already claiming that the economy is improving right now just as Obama's approval has continued to drop to a record-low for a President in his first year in office.

The economy has certainly scared a lot of people. If Presidents ordinarily see their popularity decrease while the economy falters, then why would we not expect the opposite?

Record low? That's because America was so polarized in November 2008, and he hasn't magically put an end to the polarization between regions, Left and Right, and the like. He didn't have much to lose, and his opponents have created much fear in him.

Profits return, and inventories shrink, before peopole get their jobs back. 

Quote
  So if we accept the argument that the economy is improving right now, then you would have to accept the fact that the economy is not what is driving Obama's approval rating down.

Explanation: as a rule, investors buy up underpriced securities after a panic before businesses start investing anew in plant and equipment -- which does the job creation in Big Business. Jobless claims are finally down.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 21, 2009, 01:15:17 AM
The military does leave people dead....terrorists and our enemies.

So Pbroker, since you are arguing that the economy has improved towards the end of this year, are you conceding that the economy is not what is driving Obama's approval down?

A stable economy might not be what Obama wants.  After all, socially conservative Hispanics may just vote on social issues, giving Republicans 40% of the Hispanic vote.

White people won't vote for Obama anyway given that he's under 40% in approval with whites in many polls.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Bo on December 21, 2009, 01:18:13 AM
No. He will get reelected in three years.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers on December 21, 2009, 07:59:29 AM
Obama was put in to create jobs.  The other issues are a back drop. The jobs situation has to be below 8% to have any chance of him getting reelected. If not, the Ross Perot independents that voted for Obama last time around will be looking for an alternative.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on December 21, 2009, 09:46:57 AM
The military does leave people dead....terrorists and our enemies.

Not to mention the soldiers sacrificed as cannon fodder and the civilian "collateral damage".

Quote
So Pbroker, since you are arguing that the economy has improved towards the end of this year, are you conceding that the economy is not what is driving Obama's approval down?

First, I don't like being called "Pbroker". Someone else called me that on another Forum, and that person was a real piece of work -- a Jew-baiting, Holocaust-denying slimeball who figured me out as part of ZOG (the so-called "Zionist Occupation Government"). I'm not even Jewish!

People voted for Obama as a repudiation of George W. Bush and policies that have led only to calamity. What did Dubya ever do for you? Lie to start a war for control of other countries' oilfields and then bungle it badly? Delegate power to the likes of Dick Cheney and Karl Rove that the President has no authority to assume even for himself?  Promote a corrupt speculative boom that went bust? Give resource-grabbers whatever they want?  Pander to traffickers in discreditable superstitions?

Quote
A stable economy might not be what Obama wants.  After all, socially conservative Hispanics may just vote on social issues, giving Republicans 40% of the Hispanic vote.

How would you know? Hispanics are conservative on law and order, but other than that? They have no use for the anti-intellectualism so pervasive in the white Protestant Right.  They have been burned badly by the subprime lending scams that allowed many of them to buy houses that they could never afford -- houses that have often gone into repossession. Mexican-Americans tend to make huge sacrifices to get a single-family home, and this time they got burned badly. They are not going to forgive the GOP until it changes drastically. That's why Nevada went for Obama by about a 12% margin to the surprise of many.

The best way to economic stability is to eliminate corruption. The rest takes care of itself.  

Quote
White people won't vote for Obama anyway given that he's under 40% in approval with whites in many polls.

Mostly where Obama was very unpopular in 2008 -- the South and some parts of the Intermountain West. Nobody pretends that our economic system has yet undone the hardships that eight years of reactionary government created -- hardships imposed through ticking time-bombs that exploded in 2007 and 2008.

Much must change before we recover the sort of prosperity that we knew in the 1990s. We can't restore the corrupt bubble economy that we knew with Dubya as President. We Americans are going to have to create prosperity the old-fashioned way -- through long-term, low-yield investments that we can't run away from if they start to go sour.  Anything else creates at most the illusion of prosperity or prosperity only for a few at the expense of everyone else.  The stock market is well advanced from where it was in February, but it has yet to recover what it lost in the Panic of 2008.

Economic recoveries take time.  This one won't depend upon cronyism, tax cuts targeted at the super-rich, and quick-buck raids on resources. It will make things better for people who missed out on the illusory prosperity of the GWB era. Recoveries are much slower as a rule than panics. Such is the norm in American economic history.   


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on December 21, 2009, 12:44:01 PM
I have to agree that Hispanics are not extremely socially conservative. There is no way the 'abortion only' vote is as high with Latinos as it is among whites. And I don't know if they would buy into the marriage backlash that spread among religious moderates four years ago.

The most important thing to understand among the overall white vote is, that the south drags down the Democratic numbers heavily. Outside the region, Obama did at least four points better among whites. And outside the popular vote he won white women.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on December 21, 2009, 01:07:56 PM
Obama was put in to create jobs.  The other issues are a back drop. The jobs situation has to be below 8% to have any chance of him getting reelected. If not, the Ross Perot independents that voted for Obama last time around will be looking for an alternative.

Some places will get below 8% unemployment and not vote for Obama; some will not get below 8% unemployment yet vote for Obama. We need remember that eighteen states and DC haven't voted for any GOP nominee since at least 1988, and three states which have voted only once for a GOP nominee since 1988, which suggests that unless Obama has a corrupt or inept Presidency he will have practically 260 electoral votes after achieving little.  That leaves little wiggle room for the GOP. A second crash? A major scandal? Sure -- in such cases, Obama loses. It's hard to see how we can have another crash during a slow, steady recovery that depends upon work and investment instead of upon smoke and mirrors. Speculative booms almost invariably end in panics.

Obama won't create jobs; he has yet to do so. He has established a more job-friendly environment. He's gone after corruption and overseas tax shelters that don't create jobs but instead drain capital. He can, like Ronald Reagan, ride a recovery.  

The Religious Right, the most reliable conduit for GOP voters, is drying up as a source of votes. Much of the fear of Obama "He's a secret Muslim; he will take your guns away" will prove hollow.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 21, 2009, 06:38:01 PM
Pbrower,

Where's your math coming from regarding the 260 electoral college votes?

I recall that the census in 2010 will lead to a net of +10 in terms of electoral college votes for red states last election.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Bo on December 21, 2009, 06:40:48 PM
Pbrower,

Where's your math coming from regarding the 260 electoral college votes?

I recall that the census in 2010 will lead to a net of +10 in terms of electoral college votes for red states last election.

I'm guessing he means the total EVs of all the states that Obama won by at least 10% in 2008 following the 2010 Census.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers on December 21, 2009, 06:51:29 PM
The job of the federal gov't is to help private business to invest again and so far, with the stimulus package which some can be argued as being too small was able to keep jobs but failed to create new jobs from the jobs that were eliminated do to the recession.

The Dems are going to keep their base states, but IA, NM, and OH are shaky..


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Poundingtherock on December 21, 2009, 07:10:08 PM
I usually won't ever cite the NY Times/CBS News poll because it is a joke (see its 2009 NJ governor polling) but when it shows a result favorable to conservatives, that makes my argument even stronger.

http://www.nationalcenter.org/2003/08/majority-of-hispanics-pro-life.html

"According to a July 13-27 New York Times/CBS poll (as reported on LifeNews.com), 44 percent of Hispanics now say abortion should not be permitted, while 33 percent say it should be permitted with strict limits."


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Psychic Octopus on December 21, 2009, 07:10:34 PM
Of course not. Obama is even likely to be re-elected at this time, with all the talk of independent right wing candidates.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on December 21, 2009, 10:53:27 PM
I usually won't ever cite the NY Times/CBS News poll because it is a joke (see its 2009 NJ governor polling) but when it shows a result favorable to conservatives, that makes my argument even stronger.

http://www.nationalcenter.org/2003/08/majority-of-hispanics-pro-life.html

"According to a July 13-27 New York Times/CBS poll (as reported on LifeNews.com), 44 percent of Hispanics now say abortion should not be permitted, while 33 percent say it should be permitted with strict limits."



Quote from: a very OLD blog
Sunday, August 10, 2003
Majority of Hispanics Pro-Life
A new poll is showing that a majority of Hispanics, now the nation's largest minority, are pro-life.

According to a July 13-27 New York Times/CBS poll (as reported on LifeNews.com), 44 percent of Hispanics now say abortion should not be permitted, while 33 percent say it should be permitted with strict limits.

The same article says a May Latino Opinion poll of Hispanics found that "Seventy-five percent took one of three pro-life positions opposing all or almost all abortions. They said abortion should either never be legal (27%), legal only when the life of the mother is in danger (25%), or only in cases of rape or incest or when the mother's life is in danger (23%)."

You really need to get new glasses if you are going to use a poll from 2003 -- six years ago. That was when George W. Bush was in his first  term as President. The GOP was then going strong

I found a "404" message when I clicked on the link to "Lifenews.com", so I could not find out what the organization was. I can only imagine.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: The Duke on December 22, 2009, 06:26:23 AM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically. 

And what about military spending?

()

Um, where are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest of the national debt?  Those are huge budget items and you've just decided not to include them becaue it was inconvenient to your ideologically driven argument?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl on December 22, 2009, 06:33:45 AM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically. 

And what about military spending?

()

Um, where are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest of the national debt?  Those are huge budget items and you've just decided not to include them becaue it was inconvenient to your ideologically driven argument?

Uh, no, that's a pie chart of the federal discretionary budget. ::)


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Scam of God on December 22, 2009, 06:43:59 AM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically. 

And what about military spending?

()

Um, where are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest of the national debt?  Those are huge budget items and you've just decided not to include them becaue it was inconvenient to your ideologically driven argument?

Behold, the typical conservative: quite fond of Big Government, as long as the spending is on things he agrees with.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on December 23, 2009, 09:36:02 PM
It is too early, but Obama looks like he is running below the first term numbers of every president since Nixon.

That isn't a good sign.

The better news is that Reagan was the second lowest.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: The Duke on December 23, 2009, 10:28:22 PM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically. 

And what about military spending?

()

Um, where are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest of the national debt?  Those are huge budget items and you've just decided not to include them becaue it was inconvenient to your ideologically driven argument?

Behold, the typical conservative: quite fond of Big Government, as long as the spending is on things he agrees with.

Was this supposed to be a burn?

Are you saying I'm in favor of national defense?  Guilty as charged.

Or are you saying I am in favor of Medicare and Social Security?  Well, I am guilty of that as well.

My point, however, was that the graph he put up excludes some of the largest budget items to make it appear that national defense is a larger share of the federal budget than it actually is.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Obnoxiously Slutty Girly Girl on December 23, 2009, 10:37:18 PM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically. 

And what about military spending?

()

Um, where are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest of the national debt?  Those are huge budget items and you've just decided not to include them becaue it was inconvenient to your ideologically driven argument?

Behold, the typical conservative: quite fond of Big Government, as long as the spending is on things he agrees with.

Was this supposed to be a burn?

Are you saying I'm in favor of national defense?  Guilty as charged.

Or are you saying I am in favor of Medicare and Social Security?  Well, I am guilty of that as well.

My point, however, was that the graph he put up excludes some of the largest budget items to make it appear that national defense is a larger share of the federal budget than it actually is.

Which was a lie of yours that was already addressed.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: they don't love you like i love you on December 23, 2009, 10:39:56 PM
It is too early, but Obama looks like he is running below the first term numbers of every president since Nixon.

That isn't a good sign.

The better news is that Reagan was the second lowest.

It's not really worth replying since no one takes you seriously anyway, but this statement is blatantly false:

()

He is at worse tied with Reagan and clearly above Clinton.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: The Duke on December 24, 2009, 01:15:15 AM
Behold, the typical conservative: quite fond of Big Government, as long as the spending is on things he agrees with.

Was this supposed to be a burn?

Are you saying I'm in favor of national defense?  Guilty as charged.

Or are you saying I am in favor of Medicare and Social Security?  Well, I am guilty of that as well.

My point, however, was that the graph he put up excludes some of the largest budget items to make it appear that national defense is a larger share of the federal budget than it actually is.

Which was a lie of yours that was already addressed.

Where is the lie?  I said, and these are my exact words, that Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the national debt are budget items that are not included in the graph.

You can reply that your graph only represents discretioanry items, but it doesn't change the point.  You like those non-discretinary items, so you didn't include them in the graph so as to make the things you don't like seem to be more significant than they are.  Defense is the bulk of discretionary spending, so if you limit your graph to discretionary spending, you are able to create a false impression.

Saying that a budget item is non-discretionary is no defense at all.  Mandatory spending is 62% of the Federal budget.  You have excluded nearly 2/3rds of all spending and your response is effectively that this spending doesn't count!

On your graph, defense is a majority of spending, but when you include all spending, we see that it is only about 1/5th of the budget.

()

And remember, no one on your side of this acknowledged that your graph only represents discretionary spending until my post forced you to admit you were fudging the facts.  Your post did not say anything about discretionary spending.  Your graph was not labeled as such.  You tried to pull a fast one and you got caught.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on December 24, 2009, 11:07:00 AM
It is too early, but Obama looks like he is running below the first term numbers of every president since Nixon.

That isn't a good sign.

The better news is that Reagan was the second lowest.

It's not really worth replying since no one takes you seriously anyway, but this statement is blatantly false:

()

He is at worse tied with Reagan and clearly above Clinton.

Actually, I used the November/December numbers for each President's first year of a first term from Gallup linked a few posts ago.  Obviously, I didn't include Ford or Johnson, who didn't win an election.  http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/presidential-approval-tracker.htm.  Double checking, Reagan tied Obama in December, but Clinton was several points higher (and he had an earlier dramatic drop).

It is too early to tell, but the numbers are not great.  Incidentally, both Clinton and Reagan had dramatic drops in the second year and both recovered.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Scam of God on December 24, 2009, 11:27:46 AM
"This would negate the positive effects of this."

I want to see non-military government spending reduced dramatically.  

And what about military spending?

()

Um, where are Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest of the national debt?  Those are huge budget items and you've just decided not to include them becaue it was inconvenient to your ideologically driven argument?

Behold, the typical conservative: quite fond of Big Government, as long as the spending is on things he agrees with.

Was this supposed to be a burn?

Are you saying I'm in favor of national defense?  Guilty as charged.

Or are you saying I am in favor of Medicare and Social Security?  Well, I am guilty of that as well.

My point, however, was that the graph he put up excludes some of the largest budget items to make it appear that national defense is a larger share of the federal budget than it actually is.

Shut your hole. I'm tired of your posturing; I'm tired of you slick conservative ingrates lying through your wormy little teeth every time a Democrat is in the Presidency about how much you'll shrink the government. Not once since that moronic charlatan Reagan assumed the throne have you been honest, as an ideological wing prone to groupthink, with the American people.

But your days are numbered, my friend. Indeed, we can't fund any liberal social programs - which means we sure as Hell can't fund your favorite subsidies, like defense or the prison-industrial complex. I guarantee it. Conservatism is dead. I hope I get to see your head paraded on a pike with it.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: The Duke on December 25, 2009, 04:47:15 PM
But your days are numbered, my friend. Indeed, we can't fund any liberal social programs - which means we sure as Hell can't fund your favorite subsidies, like defense or the prison-industrial complex. I guarantee it. Conservatism is dead. I hope I get to see your head paraded on a pike with it.

I'm thinking of making your psychotic rant into my new sig.  I especially like the part where you wish for my violent death.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on December 25, 2009, 06:10:30 PM
It is too early, but Obama looks like he is running below the first term numbers of every president since Nixon.

That isn't a good sign.

The better news is that Reagan was the second lowest.

He faces a well-funded, strident, organized opposition that protests everything that he is and does. It's 1960s' street theater all over, except that it is "Obama=Hitler" and "Obama=Stalin" instead of

"Hey! Hey! LBJ! How many boys did you kill today!"





Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on December 25, 2009, 08:46:45 PM
Not even close to the 60's and Nixon probably benefited from it.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on December 27, 2009, 01:35:08 PM
Not even close to the 60's and Nixon probably benefited from it.

... and who would benefit from disgust at the teabag rhetoric and symbols?





Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Queen Mum Inks.LWC on December 27, 2009, 01:39:31 PM
Do I think he'll win?  No.  Do I think he's finished (as in certainly won't win)? No.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on December 28, 2009, 05:18:15 PM
Not even close to the 60's and Nixon probably benefited from it.

... and who would benefit from disgust at the teabag rhetoric and symbols?



This little, the Republicans.  This is more of the "construction workers riot" situation.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Mechaman on January 03, 2010, 05:23:56 AM
Behold, the typical conservative: quite fond of Big Government, as long as the spending is on things he agrees with.

Was this supposed to be a burn?

Are you saying I'm in favor of national defense?  Guilty as charged.

Or are you saying I am in favor of Medicare and Social Security?  Well, I am guilty of that as well.

My point, however, was that the graph he put up excludes some of the largest budget items to make it appear that national defense is a larger share of the federal budget than it actually is.

Which was a lie of yours that was already addressed.

Where is the lie?  I said, and these are my exact words, that Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the national debt are budget items that are not included in the graph.

You can reply that your graph only represents discretioanry items, but it doesn't change the point.  You like those non-discretinary items, so you didn't include them in the graph so as to make the things you don't like seem to be more significant than they are.  Defense is the bulk of discretionary spending, so if you limit your graph to discretionary spending, you are able to create a false impression.

Saying that a budget item is non-discretionary is no defense at all.  Mandatory spending is 62% of the Federal budget.  You have excluded nearly 2/3rds of all spending and your response is effectively that this spending doesn't count!

On your graph, defense is a majority of spending, but when you include all spending, we see that it is only about 1/5th of the budget.

()

And remember, no one on your side of this acknowledged that your graph only represents discretionary spending until my post forced you to admit you were fudging the facts.  Your post did not say anything about discretionary spending.  Your graph was not labeled as such.  You tried to pull a fast one and you got caught.

I'm sorry but the idea that Libertas likes Medicare and Social Security spending just makes me ROTFLMAO.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: milhouse24 on February 23, 2010, 01:13:34 PM
I can't see America re-electing a black President.

Obama is half-black if you want to get technical


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Phony Moderate on May 16, 2010, 06:59:12 PM
This is a pretty classic thread.

And my answer is no to the question.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: memphis on May 16, 2010, 07:47:15 PM
I don't know how many times I've posted this, but I'll say it again: Approvals more than two years out have no bearing on the likelihood a president gets re-elected. Will a math-inclined person please run the regression and post the graph? I'd really appreciate it.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 17, 2010, 11:08:07 AM
I hope so.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on May 17, 2010, 01:52:27 PM
I don't know how many times I've posted this, but I'll say it again: Approvals more than two years out have no bearing on the likelihood a president gets re-elected. Will a math-inclined person please run the regression and post the graph? I'd really appreciate it.

I can't post the list of incumbent Senators and Governors, but I can post the article and the link:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/incumbents

Quote from: Nate Silver
2.25.2010
The Myth of the Incumbent 50% Rule
by Nate Silver @ 9:04 AM

I don't like criticizing our good friends over at Pollster.com, but a Tuesday article by Pollster correspondent Robert Moran, also the Executive Vice President at StrategyOne, espouses a bit of conventional wisdom which happens to be completely wrong.

Citing a Quinnipiac poll that has Ohio incumbent governor Ted Strickland ahead of Republican challenger John Kasich by a margin of 44-39, Moran writes that:

    Barring some massive exogenous event, the next Governor of Ohio will be John Kasich. [...]

    In a two way race, political professionals don't even bother to look at the spread between the incumbent and the challenger, they only focus on the incumbent's support relative to 50%. Incumbents tend to get trace elements of the undecideds at the end of a campaign. Sure, there is the occasional exception, but this rule is fairly ironclad in my experience.

Although I have no particular comment on the dynamics of the Ohio race, which I have not spent much time following, Moran's general sentiment is demonstrably false. What the actual evidence shows, rather, is the following:

1) It is extremely common for an incumbent come back to win re-election while having less than 50 percent of the vote in early polls.

2) In comparison to early polls, there is no demonstrable tendency for challengers to pick up a larger share of the undecided vote than incumbents.

3) Incumbents almost always get a larger share of the actual vote than they do in early polls (as do challengers). They do not "get what they get in the tracking"; they almost always get more.

4) However, the incumbent's vote share in early polls may in fact be a better predictor of the final margin in the race than the opponent's vote share. That is, it may be proper to focus more on the incumbent's number than the opponent's when evaluating such a poll -- even though it is extremely improper to assume that the incumbent will not pick up any additional percentage of the vote.

This analysis focuses only on early polls: those conducted between January and June of an incumbent's election year. I do not attempt to evaluate such claims with respect to late polls, such as those conducted in the weeks immediately preceding an election. It is late polls which are traditionally the subject of the so-called "incumbent rule", which is the idea that voters who remain undecided late in the race tend to break toward the challenger at the ballot booth. (Note, however, the evidence for the late version of the incumbent rule is also mixed.)

For my study, I looked at all gubernatorial and Senate contests in the 2006, 2008 and 2009 election cycles in which (i) one of the candidates was an incumbent; (ii) there was at least one poll in the race conducted between January and June of the election year, as listed at Pollster.com, and (iii) the two major-party candidates collectively accounted for at least 90 percent of the vote in November. A total of 63 contests passed these screens and were included. Although the third criterion, which disposes of races in which there was a significant third-party vote, is not ideal in certain ways, it eliminates only 4 races and the conclusions here would not substantially change if they were included.

For the analysis, I took a simple average of all early polls as included in the Pollster.com database. In accordance with Pollster.com's practice, this includes partisan polls and multiple polls conducted by the same pollster. In the vast majority of races, at least two polls were available.

The analysis is summarized in the graph below. Along the horizontal axis, we have the average vote share that the incumbent candidate received in early polls; along the vertical, his actual share of the vote in the November election. The circle denoting each race is filled-in in the event of elections that the incumbent won, and blank in elections that he lost.



There are several noteworthy features of this graph:

1) It is quite common for an incumbent to be polling at under 50 percent in the early polling average; this was true, in fact, of almost half of the races (30 of the 63). An outright majority of incumbents, meanwhile, had at least one early poll in which they were at under 50 percent of the vote.

2) There are lots of races in the top left-hand quadrant of the graph: these are cases in which the incumbent polled at under 50 percent in the early polling average, but wound up with more than 50 percent of the vote in November. In fact, of the 30 races in which the incumbent had less than 50 percent of the vote in the early polls, he wound up with more than 50 percent of the vote 18 times -- a clear majority. In addition, there was one case in which an incumbent polling at under 50 percent wound up with less than 50 percent of the November vote, but won anyway after a small third-party vote was factored in. Overall, 19 of the 30 incumbents to have less than 50 percent of the vote in the early polling average in fact won their election.

3) 5 of the 15 incumbents to have under 45 percent of the vote in early polls also won their elections. These were Bob Menendez (38.9 percent), Tim Palwenty (42.0 percent), Don Carcieri (42.3 percent), Jennifer Granholm (43.4 percent) and Arnold Schwarzenegger (44.3 percent), all in 2006.

3b) If we instead look at those cases within three points of Ted Strickland's 44 percent, when the incumbent had between 41 and 47 percent of the vote in early polls, he won on 11 of 17 occasions (65 percent of the time).

4) Almost all of the data points are above the red diagonal line, meaning that the incumbent finished with a larger share of the vote than he had in early polls. This was true on 58 of 63 occasions.

4b) On average, the incumbent added 6.4 percent to his voting total between the early polling average and the election, whereas the challenger added 4.5 percent. Looked at differently, the incumbent actually picked up the majority -- 59 percent -- of the undecided vote vis-a-vis early polls.

4c) The above trend seems quite linear; regardless of the incumbent's initial standing in the early polls, he picked up an average of 6-7 points by the election, although with a significant amount of variance.

5) The following corollary of Moran's hypothesis is almost always true: if an incumbent has 50 percent or more of the vote in early polls, he will win re-election. This was true on 32 of 33 occasions; the lone exception was George Allen in Virginia, who had 51.5 percent of the vote in early polls in 2006 but lost re-election by less than a full point (after running a terrible campaign). It appears that once a voter is willing to express a preference for an incumbent candidate to a pollster, they rarely (although not never) change their minds and vote for the challenger instead.

*-*

Finally, although this is not apparent from the graph itself, it does appear to be the case that the incumbent's share of the vote is a better predictor of the final voting margin than the challenger's share. The correlation between the incumbent's vote share in early polls and the final voting margin is .85; the correlation between the challenger's vote share and the final margin has a smaller magnitude, at (negative) .80. Interestingly, the correlation between the margin in early polls and the final margin is also just .85 -- no better than that obtained from looking at the incumbent's vote share alone. This may suggest that the opponent's vote share provides little additional informational value once the incumbent's vote share is known. As I hope I've made clear, however, this does not mean that incumbents "get what they get in the tracking"; they almost always add to their number. It is probably OK to focus on an incumbent's vote share in early polls while downplaying the challenger's number, but if you do, you need to add 6-7 percent to it to have the most accurate prediction of his likely performance in November. In Strickland's case, for instance, polling at 44 percent in the early polls would predict a final vote share of 50-51 percent. 

This applies to Senate and gubernatorial elections, and not to the President directly, but the Presidential race consists of fifty statewide elections, one DC-wide election, and five races in Congressional seats. It's possible to lose a Senatorial or Gubernatorial race if one starts with a 50%+ approval rating (George Allen, 2006), but such is exceedingly rare. It takes an incredible "macaca" moment or outrages by staffers to lose from such a position.

I would expect the effect to be muted in several aspects in a Presidential race: if the President has a 70% approval rating in California in March 2012, then he's not likely to campaign heavily in California and pile on the percentage.  Likewise, if his approval rating is 35% in Oklahoma in March 2012 he's going to go for places more likely to give him a chance to win if it isn't a sure thing (Florida, Indiana, Missouri).  States elect the President; people don't.   

13 of the last 18 incumbent Presidents who ran for continuation of their Presidencies won election; five went down to defeat.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 17, 2010, 01:59:05 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on May 17, 2010, 02:00:49 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

Unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip and Obama will own it

It is no longer Dubya's economy. Of course President Obama gets the blame for any huge failures from here on; he also gets credit for any success. There will be no corrupt boom like that of the Double Zero decade, but any economic growth is more likely to be sustainable. Independent voters vote heavily on economic issues.   


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 17, 2010, 02:07:00 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

Unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip and Obama will own it

It is no longer Dubya's economy. Of course President Obama gets the blame for any huge failures from here on; he also gets credit for any success. There will be no corrupt boom like that of the Double Zero decade, but any economic growth is more likely to be sustainable. Independent voters vote heavily on economic issues.   

Well, when it comes to jobs, as a rule, Democrats own it. Surely, policy preferences yield different outcomes. I've never bought that supply-side nonsense and haven't since the Reagan tax cuts of 1981 that were supposed to see the economy grow by 5% in 1982 fell, how shall I put it, spectacularly short. The recovery, if you can call it that and many were on the sh**tty end of Reaganomics, did, of course, come thanks to deficit spending and lower rates of interest


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 17, 2010, 05:35:12 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Citizen (The) Doctor on May 17, 2010, 05:49:11 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.

You're seriously using his orating skills against him?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 17, 2010, 05:49:50 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.

I play a low expectations game ;). Been dealt the sh**ttiest hand since that which Hoover dealt FDR. Nowt that came between comes close


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 17, 2010, 05:51:29 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.

I play a low expectations game ;). Been dealt the sh**ttiest hand since that which Hoover dealt FDR. Nowt that came between comes close

FDR blaming Hoover, how responsible. Just shrug off the responsibility and hope the voters buy it.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 17, 2010, 06:33:14 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.

I play a low expectations game ;). Been dealt the sh**ttiest hand since that which Hoover dealt FDR. Nowt that came between comes close

FDR blaming Hoover, how responsible. Just shrug off the responsibility and hope the voters buy it.

Well, it's accurate :). Look man you're talking to a left-leaning pro-positive rights Christian Democrat not some right-winger totally in thrall to that wretched God of the ideological Right that is the "cult of neoliberalism" - and its deregulatory and non-regulatory excesses - wherein lies all the causation for the 'Crash of 2008' and the 'Great Recession'

I don't even think when it comes to Western capitalism in terms of socialism vs conservatism because liberalism is its hegemonic ideology. European social democracy is a model of capitalism, but more of a 'New Liberal', rather than a neoliberal, essence


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 17, 2010, 07:24:52 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.

I play a low expectations game ;). Been dealt the sh**ttiest hand since that which Hoover dealt FDR. Nowt that came between comes close

FDR blaming Hoover, how responsible. Just shrug off the responsibility and hope the voters buy it.

Well, it's accurate :). Look man you're talking to a left-leaning pro-positive rights Christian Democrat not some right-winger totally in thrall to that wretched God of the ideological Right that is the "cult of neoliberalism" - and its deregulatory and non-regulatory excesses - wherein lies all the causation for the 'Crash of 2008' and the 'Great Recession'

I don't even think when it comes to Western capitalism in terms of socialism vs conservatism because liberalism is its hegemonic ideology. European social democracy is a model of capitalism, but more of a 'New Liberal', rather than a neoliberal, essence

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 17, 2010, 08:16:31 PM

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

I've some left-libertarian convictions such as support for co-operatives and credit unions - that kind of thing. As for neoliberalism, the 'Crash of 2008' has rendered that as outdated as revolutionary socialism, the failed ideological God of the Left

What comes next?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Tuck! on May 17, 2010, 08:18:47 PM

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

I've some left-libertarian convictions such as support for co-operatives and credit unions - that kind of thing. As for neoliberalism, the 'Crash of 2008' has rendered that as outdated as revolutionary socialism, the failed ideological God of the Left

What comes next?

Dave,

I do not think you understand the underlying causes of the economic collapse. The crash had nothing to do with any particular ideology.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 17, 2010, 08:22:45 PM

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

I've some left-libertarian convictions such as support for co-operatives and credit unions - that kind of thing. As for neoliberalism, the 'Crash of 2008' has rendered that as outdated as revolutionary socialism, the failed ideological God of the Left

What comes next?

I think the crash of 2008 was waiting to happen for over 30 years.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 17, 2010, 08:24:12 PM

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

I've some left-libertarian convictions such as support for co-operatives and credit unions - that kind of thing. As for neoliberalism, the 'Crash of 2008' has rendered that as outdated as revolutionary socialism, the failed ideological God of the Left

What comes next?

Dave,

I do not think you understand the underlying causes of the economic collapse. The crash had nothing to do with any particular ideology.

As far as I'm concerned the fault lies in the deregulatory and non-regulatory excesses inherent in the neoliberal model of capitalism. I just know 'New Liberalism' characterised what historians and economists consider the Golden Age of Capitalism. Classical and neoliberalism seem too weighted in favor of elites for my liking


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 17, 2010, 08:25:54 PM

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

I've some left-libertarian convictions such as support for co-operatives and credit unions - that kind of thing. As for neoliberalism, the 'Crash of 2008' has rendered that as outdated as revolutionary socialism, the failed ideological God of the Left

What comes next?

I think the crash of 2008 was waiting to happen for over 30 years.

I'm minded to agree that it was a long-time in the making and I hope never to see anything of this magnitude again in my lifetime


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: justW353 on May 17, 2010, 08:31:14 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.

I play a low expectations game ;). Been dealt the sh**ttiest hand since that which Hoover dealt FDR. Nowt that came between comes close

FDR blaming Hoover, how responsible. Just shrug off the responsibility and hope the voters buy it.

Well, it's accurate :). Look man you're talking to a left-leaning pro-positive rights Christian Democrat not some right-winger totally in thrall to that wretched God of the ideological Right that is the "cult of neoliberalism" - and its deregulatory and non-regulatory excesses - wherein lies all the causation for the 'Crash of 2008' and the 'Great Recession'

I don't even think when it comes to Western capitalism in terms of socialism vs conservatism because liberalism is its hegemonic ideology. European social democracy is a model of capitalism, but more of a 'New Liberal', rather than a neoliberal, essence

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

You are no libertarian.  You are a neo-con through and through.

As for the blame for the the Great Depression, I think the blame falls on three people.

Harding and Coolidge were at blame for the crash itself.  Coolidge was a smart guy; he declined reelection because he knew the crash was coming.

As for the depression, it all falls on Hoover.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 17, 2010, 09:59:14 PM
Seemingly, if job creation in the US continues the current pace through the course of 2010, then more jobs will have been created than during the entire eight years of George W Bush's presidency

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/politicalconnections.php

The rate of unemployment needs to fall, of course, otherwise incomes for many will remain flat and it's vital that the economy stays on track. Any double-dip, of course, and Obama will own it

Mhm I thought everything was going to be perfect with Obama in office. He sure made it sound that way.

I play a low expectations game ;). Been dealt the sh**ttiest hand since that which Hoover dealt FDR. Nowt that came between comes close

FDR blaming Hoover, how responsible. Just shrug off the responsibility and hope the voters buy it.

Well, it's accurate :). Look man you're talking to a left-leaning pro-positive rights Christian Democrat not some right-winger totally in thrall to that wretched God of the ideological Right that is the "cult of neoliberalism" - and its deregulatory and non-regulatory excesses - wherein lies all the causation for the 'Crash of 2008' and the 'Great Recession'

I don't even think when it comes to Western capitalism in terms of socialism vs conservatism because liberalism is its hegemonic ideology. European social democracy is a model of capitalism, but more of a 'New Liberal', rather than a neoliberal, essence

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

You are no libertarian.  You are a neo-con through and through.

As for the blame for the the Great Depression, I think the blame falls on three people.

Harding and Coolidge were at blame for the crash itself.  Coolidge was a smart guy; he declined reelection because he knew the crash was coming.

As for the depression, it all falls on Hoover.

You weren't taught this in school but Harding got us out of a depression with capitalism. Look up the depression of 1920. Only democrats blame problems on the man.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: King on May 17, 2010, 11:48:49 PM
You weren't taught this in school but Harding got us out of a depression with capitalism. Look up the depression of 1920. Only democrats blame problems on the man.

Huh? The Roaring Twenties and Harding-Coolidge laissez faire is a mainstay of U.S. History curriculum.  The economic boom created by them is taught in every high school in the United States.

The problem was that it was built off a giant non-capitalistic bubble, much like the housing market in the 2000s.  Harding jacked up tariffs to create false trade surpluses with Europe, a continent that was already severely in debt to the United States do to WWI expenditures.  It lead a lot of money to be made domestically, but once the foreign banks dried up, so did the economy.

It wasn't a free market solution.  It was a government bailout to domestic industries that were struggling to compete with foreign producers.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 18, 2010, 09:12:07 AM
You weren't taught this in school but Harding got us out of a depression with capitalism. Look up the depression of 1920. Only democrats blame problems on the man.

Huh? The Roaring Twenties and Harding-Coolidge laissez faire is a mainstay of U.S. History curriculum.  The economic boom created by them is taught in every high school in the United States.

The problem was that it was built off a giant non-capitalistic bubble, much like the housing market in the 2000s.  Harding jacked up tariffs to create false trade surpluses with Europe, a continent that was already severely in debt to the United States do to WWI expenditures.  It lead a lot of money to be made domestically, but once the foreign banks dried up, so did the economy.

It wasn't a free market solution.  It was a government bailout to domestic industries that were struggling to compete with foreign producers.

Yes the roaring 20's are taught, but what else is taught is that capitalism fails and FDR's government programs are needed. I'm referring tot he depression of 1920.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: King on May 18, 2010, 11:28:17 AM
You weren't taught this in school but Harding got us out of a depression with capitalism. Look up the depression of 1920. Only democrats blame problems on the man.

Huh? The Roaring Twenties and Harding-Coolidge laissez faire is a mainstay of U.S. History curriculum.  The economic boom created by them is taught in every high school in the United States.

The problem was that it was built off a giant non-capitalistic bubble, much like the housing market in the 2000s.  Harding jacked up tariffs to create false trade surpluses with Europe, a continent that was already severely in debt to the United States do to WWI expenditures.  It lead a lot of money to be made domestically, but once the foreign banks dried up, so did the economy.

It wasn't a free market solution.  It was a government bailout to domestic industries that were struggling to compete with foreign producers.

Yes the roaring 20's are taught, but what else is taught is that capitalism fails and FDR's government programs are needed. I'm referring tot he depression of 1920.

What's taught is that using capitalism to cheat fails and that's a true statement.  If Harding had really got us out of a depression, there wouldn't have been another much larger one just 9 years later.  He created a bubble, much like the housing bubble created through the low interest rate and subprime mortgage deal in the 2000s.

My history teachers all also mentioned that the New Deal didn't really improve the economy much and we didn't get out of the depression until WWII propped up the defense industry and sent the remaining bunch of unemployed people overseas as soldiers.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 18, 2010, 02:59:54 PM
WWII is what brought us out of the depression but even that was supply and demand. My teachers were in love with FDR's agencies and had us memorize the letters and what they stood for.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on May 18, 2010, 05:30:29 PM

You don't have to convince me on New Liberal. I'm a liberal in the 19th century sense of the word which today would be a conservative libertarian. I'm Christian too and if you're bothered to take the time to read my religion and philosophy posts you'll see that I am far from the religious or radical right.

I've some left-libertarian convictions such as support for co-operatives and credit unions - that kind of thing. As for neoliberalism, the 'Crash of 2008' has rendered that as outdated as revolutionary socialism, the failed ideological God of the Left

What comes next?

I think the crash of 2008 was waiting to happen for over 30 years.

Only if you see it as the result of political tendencies that began about when Ronald Reagan became President. We got a culture of greed  but contempt for the intellect, and a rejection of fiscal and economic caution. That coincides with the transformation of Eisenhower-era conservatism into the "supply-side" economics of the Reagan era. Eisenhower-era conservatives disdained debt; Reagan-era conservatives found debt a powerful tool for keeping people working longer and harder for less -- but in fear of the Boss.

Such is a consequence of events that the generational theory of Neil Howe and William Strauss suggests as a consequence of a generational cycle.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: King on May 18, 2010, 08:48:24 PM
WWII is what brought us out of the depression but even that was supply and demand. My teachers were in love with FDR's agencies and had us memorize the letters and what they stood for.

Well, while there were not effective getting us out of the depression, they are still important to history.

I'm not disappointed that I know what the Tennessee Valley Authority is and what it still does to this day.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Democratic Hawk on May 18, 2010, 09:07:32 PM
WWII is what brought us out of the depression but even that was supply and demand. My teachers were in love with FDR's agencies and had us memorize the letters and what they stood for.

No you were in recovery until FDR moved too prematurely in cutting spending causing a dip from which WWII proved to be the way out. Either way he set into motion the greatest progressive era yet. The Golden Age of Capitalism (1950-1972) was not called that for nothing. For most ordinary people it was the best decades of their lives and certainly, as a whole, was better than anything that came before or since.

The only good period, during the Washington Consensus (1980-2008), was the Clinton presidency. For which I give the Republican Congress no credit, otherwise 'Winny' Bush wouldn't have been so abysmal

The 'Third Way' owns compassionate conservatism. Aye, the bigger the wallet, the more heart Bush had


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 19, 2010, 10:33:15 AM
WWII is what brought us out of the depression but even that was supply and demand. My teachers were in love with FDR's agencies and had us memorize the letters and what they stood for.

No you were in recovery until FDR moved too prematurely in cutting spending causing a dip from which WWII proved to be the way out. Either way he set into motion the greatest progressive era yet. The Golden Age of Capitalism (1950-1972) was not called that for nothing. For most ordinary people it was the best decades of their lives and certainly, as a whole, was better than anything that came before or since.

The only good period, during the Washington Consensus (1980-2008), was the Clinton presidency. For which I give the Republican Congress no credit, otherwise 'Winny' Bush wouldn't have been so abysmal

The 'Third Way' owns compassionate conservatism. Aye, the bigger the wallet, the more heart Bush had

Can you hear me all the way over there on the left? Our economy was AWFUL until 1995 when Newt Gingrich and the GOP took over and by March of 2000 we were already in a recession giving Bush one of the worst handed economies for any new presidents except for Reagan and FDR. You must enjoy Clinton's magic wand that made everything better.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Dan the Roman on May 19, 2010, 12:29:54 PM
The thing people who claim about the effectiveness of the New Deal miss is that it was a political solution ot a political problem. 7% unemployment is an economic problem. 25% is a political one. It may be that austerity and free market economics will get you better growth 7 or 8 years down the line, but the unemployed won't wait that long. The Bruning government in Germany in 1930-32 followed Paulite economics to the hilt, doing a unilateral 33% salary cut for state employees and attempting to aggressively cut spending. The result was they all voted for Hitler who promised public works, and they loved him for it.

In 1931, Americans were being cut down in the streets of Washington by the US Army. five years later the President won reelection with 61% of the vote. The New Deal was an unprecedented success on its own terms. People just have no sense of proportion as to what those terms were.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: The Duke on May 19, 2010, 06:02:00 PM
The thing people who claim about the effectiveness of the New Deal miss is that it was a political solution ot a political problem. 7% unemployment is an economic problem. 25% is a political one. It may be that austerity and free market economics will get you better growth 7 or 8 years down the line, but the unemployed won't wait that long. The Bruning government in Germany in 1930-32 followed Paulite economics to the hilt, doing a unilateral 33% salary cut for state employees and attempting to aggressively cut spending. The result was they all voted for Hitler who promised public works, and they loved him for it.

In 1931, Americans were being cut down in the streets of Washington by the US Army. five years later the President won reelection with 61% of the vote. The New Deal was an unprecedented success on its own terms. People just have no sense of proportion as to what those terms were.

Very smart post.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: memphis on May 19, 2010, 06:24:54 PM
WWII is what brought us out of the depression but even that was supply and demand. My teachers were in love with FDR's agencies and had us memorize the letters and what they stood for.

No you were in recovery until FDR moved too prematurely in cutting spending causing a dip from which WWII proved to be the way out. Either way he set into motion the greatest progressive era yet. The Golden Age of Capitalism (1950-1972) was not called that for nothing. For most ordinary people it was the best decades of their lives and certainly, as a whole, was better than anything that came before or since.

The only good period, during the Washington Consensus (1980-2008), was the Clinton presidency. For which I give the Republican Congress no credit, otherwise 'Winny' Bush wouldn't have been so abysmal

The 'Third Way' owns compassionate conservatism. Aye, the bigger the wallet, the more heart Bush had

Can you hear me all the way over there on the left? Our economy was AWFUL until 1995 when Newt Gingrich and the GOP took over and by March of 2000 we were already in a recession giving Bush one of the worst handed economies for any new presidents except for Reagan and FDR. You must enjoy Clinton's magic wand that made everything better.
Wrong. Per wikipedia: "The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee has determined that a peak in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in March 2001. A peak marks the end of an expansion and the beginning of a recession."
Also ()


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 19, 2010, 08:40:58 PM
The thing people who claim about the effectiveness of the New Deal miss is that it was a political solution ot a political problem. 7% unemployment is an economic problem. 25% is a political one. It may be that austerity and free market economics will get you better growth 7 or 8 years down the line, but the unemployed won't wait that long. The Bruning government in Germany in 1930-32 followed Paulite economics to the hilt, doing a unilateral 33% salary cut for state employees and attempting to aggressively cut spending. The result was they all voted for Hitler who promised public works, and they loved him for it.

In 1931, Americans were being cut down in the streets of Washington by the US Army. five years later the President won reelection with 61% of the vote. The New Deal was an unprecedented success on its own terms. People just have no sense of proportion as to what those terms were.

We need to cut government salaries by 25% and use the rest to pay off the deficit. Cut the president's pay to $250,000. Congressmens' salaries down to $100,000. Implement a 20% cut in all programs other than defense and security. Cutting taxes will allow money to be used in the private sector to hire workers and spend rather than going towards taxes which results in even more people working and reduces unemployment.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Yelnoc on May 19, 2010, 09:18:29 PM
The thing people who claim about the effectiveness of the New Deal miss is that it was a political solution ot a political problem. 7% unemployment is an economic problem. 25% is a political one. It may be that austerity and free market economics will get you better growth 7 or 8 years down the line, but the unemployed won't wait that long. The Bruning government in Germany in 1930-32 followed Paulite economics to the hilt, doing a unilateral 33% salary cut for state employees and attempting to aggressively cut spending. The result was they all voted for Hitler who promised public works, and they loved him for it.

In 1931, Americans were being cut down in the streets of Washington by the US Army. five years later the President won reelection with 61% of the vote. The New Deal was an unprecedented success on its own terms. People just have no sense of proportion as to what those terms were.

We need to cut government salaries by 25% and use the rest to pay off the deficit. Cut the president's pay to $250,000. Congressmens' salaries down to $100,000. Implement a 20% cut in all programs other than defense and security. Cutting taxes will allow money to be used in the private sector to hire workers and spend rather than going towards taxes which results in even more people working and reduces unemployment.
Do you have any idea how marginal Government salaries are related to National Debt?  You might save a few million dollars.  The National Debt is in the trillions!

So you want a 20% cut in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran's Benefits, etc. while not touching Military Spending, which eats $800 billion or about 1/3 of the US Federal budget?  I don't understand your logic.

Could you clarify your last sentence?  It seems like you said cutting taxes will give employers extra money to higher workers rather than spending it on taxes that reduce unemployment.  That makes no sense.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 19, 2010, 10:16:11 PM
The thing people who claim about the effectiveness of the New Deal miss is that it was a political solution ot a political problem. 7% unemployment is an economic problem. 25% is a political one. It may be that austerity and free market economics will get you better growth 7 or 8 years down the line, but the unemployed won't wait that long. The Bruning government in Germany in 1930-32 followed Paulite economics to the hilt, doing a unilateral 33% salary cut for state employees and attempting to aggressively cut spending. The result was they all voted for Hitler who promised public works, and they loved him for it.

In 1931, Americans were being cut down in the streets of Washington by the US Army. five years later the President won reelection with 61% of the vote. The New Deal was an unprecedented success on its own terms. People just have no sense of proportion as to what those terms were.

We need to cut government salaries by 25% and use the rest to pay off the deficit. Cut the president's pay to $250,000. Congressmens' salaries down to $100,000. Implement a 20% cut in all programs other than defense and security. Cutting taxes will allow money to be used in the private sector to hire workers and spend rather than going towards taxes which results in even more people working and reduces unemployment.
Do you have any idea how marginal Government salaries are related to National Debt?  You might save a few million dollars.  The National Debt is in the trillions!

So you want a 20% cut in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran's Benefits, etc. while not touching Military Spending, which eats $800 billion or about 1/3 of the US Federal budget?  I don't understand your logic.

Could you clarify your last sentence?  It seems like you said cutting taxes will give employers extra money to higher workers rather than spending it on taxes that reduce unemployment.  That makes no sense.

Yes I never said it would happen over night or that my solution had all the answers but it's better than Obama spending millions on honey bee insurance, eating patterns of a snail, and wool studies. I got my own wool study. I wear it and it keeps me warm.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Dan the Roman on May 19, 2010, 11:45:49 PM
The thing people who claim about the effectiveness of the New Deal miss is that it was a political solution ot a political problem. 7% unemployment is an economic problem. 25% is a political one. It may be that austerity and free market economics will get you better growth 7 or 8 years down the line, but the unemployed won't wait that long. The Bruning government in Germany in 1930-32 followed Paulite economics to the hilt, doing a unilateral 33% salary cut for state employees and attempting to aggressively cut spending. The result was they all voted for Hitler who promised public works, and they loved him for it.

In 1931, Americans were being cut down in the streets of Washington by the US Army. five years later the President won reelection with 61% of the vote. The New Deal was an unprecedented success on its own terms. People just have no sense of proportion as to what those terms were.

We need to cut government salaries by 25% and use the rest to pay off the deficit. Cut the president's pay to $250,000. Congressmens' salaries down to $100,000. Implement a 20% cut in all programs other than defense and security. Cutting taxes will allow money to be used in the private sector to hire workers and spend rather than going towards taxes which results in even more people working and reduces unemployment.
Do you have any idea how marginal Government salaries are related to National Debt?  You might save a few million dollars.  The National Debt is in the trillions!

So you want a 20% cut in Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Veteran's Benefits, etc. while not touching Military Spending, which eats $800 billion or about 1/3 of the US Federal budget?  I don't understand your logic.

Could you clarify your last sentence?  It seems like you said cutting taxes will give employers extra money to higher workers rather than spending it on taxes that reduce unemployment.  That makes no sense.

Yes I never said it would happen over night or that my solution had all the answers but it's better than Obama spending millions on honey bee insurance, eating patterns of a snail, and wool studies. I got my own wool study. I wear it and it keeps me warm.

The largest component of the Federal budget is Defense, after that it is Social Security, Medicare/Medicaid and Debt Service Payments. Those combined are over 70% of the Federal Budget. There is quite simply no way to balance the federal budget without substantial defense cuts or revenue increases. This is the same situation as existed under Bush II, and its why I give zero credibility to Conservatives claims to be deficit hawks. You can not be both a superpower and have low taxes. You actually have to pay for stuff and be stingy. The debt does not exist because of entitlements, but because people refused to pay for them, and it was not liberal who made having the cake and eating it too popular - it was supply-side conservatives. I agree that there comes a time when debt is more dangerous than other marginal aspects of the business climate, but in such a situation, the important factor is the expectation you will pay the debt back, not its size. The reason why the dollar has been suffering is because foreigners don't think the political balance in the US will allow taxes to be raised in order pay down the debt,  and will instead opt to print money post-2012.

And government salaries, while a lot larger portion of expenses in Germany in the 1930s(all local school teachers and police were state employees, not people you want to piss off when facing a fascist challenge), salary cutting is never about saving money. Its about making a statement of moral sacrifice that everyone is sharing the pain. And it has been a disaster whenever it has been tried throughout world history, because the types of things unemployed cops tend to get involved with during depressions are not the sorts of things you want them doing.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on May 20, 2010, 09:04:58 AM
The thing people who claim about the effectiveness of the New Deal miss is that it was a political solution ot a political problem. 7% unemployment is an economic problem. 25% is a political one. It may be that austerity and free market economics will get you better growth 7 or 8 years down the line, but the unemployed won't wait that long. The Bruning government in Germany in 1930-32 followed Paulite economics to the hilt, doing a unilateral 33% salary cut for state employees and attempting to aggressively cut spending. The result was they all voted for Hitler who promised public works, and they loved him for it.

In 1931, Americans were being cut down in the streets of Washington by the US Army. five years later the President won reelection with 61% of the vote. The New Deal was an unprecedented success on its own terms. People just have no sense of proportion as to what those terms were.

We need to cut government salaries by 25% and use the rest to pay off the deficit. Cut the president's pay to $250,000. Congressmens' salaries down to $100,000. Implement a 20% cut in all programs other than defense and security. Cutting taxes will allow money to be used in the private sector to hire workers and spend rather than going towards taxes which results in even more people working and reduces unemployment.

Much of American business depends upon government activity -- medical practices that rely heavily upon Medicare and Medicaid patients, grocers (even Wal-Mart) who accept SNAP, truckers who use public roads, and of course contractors on public works.

If you are talking about the non-federal public sector, then think again of the consequences of underpaying cops (many of which will drift for all practical purposes to the payrolls of gangsters) and teachers. 

Without question, corruption must be weeded out of government -- but not solely for the purpose of cutting deficits. Government is still the only way in which to do certain things equitably and efficiently -- like the mail,  law enforcement, schools, and highways.



Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 20, 2010, 06:03:04 PM
I don't share the view that government is the only way to do certain things efficiently. I'm certainly not happy with schools, the post office, social security being bankrupt, or the way medicare is handled. Privitization I believe does things much more efficiently.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: izixs on May 21, 2010, 10:15:03 PM
I don't share the view that government is the only way to do certain things efficiently. I'm certainly not happy with schools, the post office, social security being bankrupt, or the way medicare is handled. Privitization I believe does things much more efficiently.

I keep hearing arguments like this, and there's not really any follow through to explain how or why that such is the case. Its disappointing really as I'm one of those odd folks susceptible to logical arguments. Mind taking it from the level of believing and trying out a little proving?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Beet on May 21, 2010, 10:18:37 PM
I don't share the view that government is the only way to do certain things efficiently. I'm certainly not happy with schools, the post office, social security being bankrupt, or the way medicare is handled. Privitization I believe does things much more efficiently.

I keep hearing arguments like this, and there's not really any follow through to explain how or why that such is the case. Its disappointing really as I'm one of those odd folks susceptible to logical arguments. Mind taking it from the level of believing and trying out a little proving?

A fundamental misdiagnosis of the situation, izixs. Derek doesn't need to prove anything except for his emotions, which he already knows because he feels them. QED.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on May 22, 2010, 09:50:13 AM
I don't share the view that government is the only way to do certain things efficiently. I'm certainly not happy with schools, the post office, social security being bankrupt, or the way medicare is handled. Privitization I believe does things much more efficiently.

The Private Sector can do things better by some standards mostly because it can pick and choose customers. One way in which to choose customers is to price people out.

There is no private alternative to the Armed Forces or to diplomacy. The private solution to criminal justice is a lynch mob -- effective and inexpensive, but grossly unjust. Governments are responsible to people; corporations are responsible to shareholders or sugar-daddy providers of endowments.

Sure, elite private boarding schools are effective -- because the kids aren't handicapped to begin with, because they don't have their minds stunted in crowded slums and rural hovels, and because the boarding schools can eliminate television and video games. Federal Express and  UPS cater to high-value objects and communications; you would never send a greeting card by either, and you would probably never mass-mail your life history to prospective employers by either. If you think that Social Security is inadequate, then remember that you can supplement it with life insurance -- term or whole life -- and with an IRA. Both are low-yield , illiquid, and long-term if they are to offer any safety at all and don't devour your investment with fees.

Fire fighting? The firemen arrive at the scene of the fire not so much to protect a burning house (by which time it is ordinarily too late) but instead to protect the neighboring buildings. It's up to you to put in a sprinkler system.

Full privatization is best for those who have every advantage in the world, but for everyone else it is do without or pay an exorbitant price while pay becomes a sham.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 22, 2010, 03:25:56 PM
I don't share the view that government is the only way to do certain things efficiently. I'm certainly not happy with schools, the post office, social security being bankrupt, or the way medicare is handled. Privitization I believe does things much more efficiently.

I keep hearing arguments like this, and there's not really any follow through to explain how or why that such is the case. Its disappointing really as I'm one of those odd folks susceptible to logical arguments. Mind taking it from the level of believing and trying out a little proving?

Yes when you look at the public schools that are government run, kids graduate not knowing how to read. The post office is slow, inefficient, and sends mail to the wrong people. Social security and medicare which I'm a fan of are both bankrupt. The DMV takes forever and causes the cost of insurance to go up. The health care industry is completely privatized right now and it is the envy of the world. When you said from believing to prove, were you thinking of Plato's theory on the 4 levels of knowledge; imagining, believing, thinking, knowing? I'm a platonist myself.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: DS0816 on May 24, 2010, 02:56:48 PM
The health care industry is completely privatized right now and it is the envy of the world.

…The U.S.'s?

How so?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 24, 2010, 09:14:14 PM
The health care industry is completely privatized right now and it is the envy of the world.

…The U.S.'s?

How so?

Yes just ask the politician from Canada who came here for surgery because the wait in Canada was too long.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: justW353 on May 24, 2010, 09:28:56 PM
The health care industry is completely privatized right now and it is the envy of the world.

…The U.S.'s?

How so?

Yes just ask the politician from Canada who came here for surgery because the wait in Canada was too long.

lol at you not answering after he called you out.

Anyways, ask the rich folk who move to Australia or the UK because their health care won't cover the surgery or chemo they need.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Derek on May 25, 2010, 05:51:06 AM
The health care industry is completely privatized right now and it is the envy of the world.

…The U.S.'s?

How so?

Yes just ask the politician from Canada who came here for surgery because the wait in Canada was too long.

lol at you not answering after he called you out.

Anyways, ask the rich folk who move to Australia or the UK because their health care won't cover the surgery or chemo they need.

I did answer. Rick folk? Who?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: ComeAndTakeIt53 on June 02, 2010, 02:20:27 PM
Yes.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on June 02, 2010, 03:07:41 PM
I don't share the view that government is the only way to do certain things efficiently. I'm certainly not happy with schools, the post office, social security being bankrupt, or the way medicare is handled. Privitization I believe does things much more efficiently.

I keep hearing arguments like this, and there's not really any follow through to explain how or why that such is the case. Its disappointing really as I'm one of those odd folks susceptible to logical arguments. Mind taking it from the level of believing and trying out a little proving?

Yes when you look at the public schools that are government run, kids graduate not knowing how to read.

The kids involved are typically in Special Education. The government puts much effort into educating kids with 'special needs" of any kind -- "special needs" that may include impairment of hearing or sight or handicaps not related to low intelligence. Privately-run schools could never meet the needs of the retarded.

Quote
The post office is slow, inefficient, and sends mail to the wrong people.

FedEx and UPS will deliver mail, but at roughly ten to twenty times the rate that the USPS charges. I assure you that if I wanted a parcel with sensitive or high-value material in it I would send it by one of the premium services. But sending a check to a credit card issuer? The mail system so far has served me well.  Come to think of it, the check that I send to a credit-card company is sensitive... but I can't imagine anyone in the postal system ever filching the check. You would NEVER send a greeting card by Federal Express.


Quote
 Social security and medicare which I'm a fan of are both bankrupt.

Social Security operates at a lower cost than does a typical life insurance company. Medicare is far less expensive in its administration than is the private health-insurance cartel -- so much less that Medicare for all would be an economic boon to all but private insurers.  

Quote
The DMV takes forever and causes the cost of insurance to go up.

Sure, but healing from an auto accident caused by an incompetent driver also can take seemingly forever, too.  Without the DMV as a screener of drivers auto accident rates, property damage, and collision-related deaths and injuries would also skyrocket, and just think what that would do to insurance rates.  

Quote
The health care industry is completely privatized right now and it is the envy of the world.

Really? Name a country that imitates our profits-first, cost-loading system for paying for it.

I don't deny that our medical care system is great for those who have unlimited funds or are lucky enough to have first-rate insurance or access to the charitable section. That said, our system prices people into the grave. Few peoples who have something else would tolerate that.

You can also claim that our economic system attracts the best physicians due to low taxes overall. In essence, physicians in America keep more of what they make than do those in any other country in the First World. Even with President Obama's effort to make health insurance less costly, America will be an attractive place for physicians because we have lower income taxes, lower sales taxes, and no VAT.


Quote
When you said from believing to prove, were you thinking of Plato's theory on the 4 levels of knowledge; imagining, believing, thinking, knowing? I'm a platonist myself.

Plato's theory of the four levels of knowledge cannot support partisan politics of any kind.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Phony Moderate on August 17, 2010, 12:20:38 PM
(Bump)

Looking at his current approval ratings, I'm leaning more towards saying yes.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Devilman88 on August 17, 2010, 12:23:59 PM
If the election was held today yes, but the election is in 2012.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Bo on August 17, 2010, 12:33:15 PM
I'm not sure if I've answered this before, but probably not. Reagan's and Clinton's approvals were in the toilet in early 1983/1995 (the equivalent of early 2011 for Obama) and they still got reelected in landslides. Obama probably will be reelected once the recovery starts recovering more strongly.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on August 17, 2010, 12:47:50 PM
No, not yet.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on August 17, 2010, 01:43:37 PM
Ask this question this time of year in 2012.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on August 17, 2010, 01:45:12 PM
 News cycle. President Obama was right about the Islamic Cultural Center near Ground Zero (the First Amendment allows no other interpretation because it has no exceptions for popular judgment of other people's religion) even if his statement in support of the Islamic Cultural Center is unpopular. Dwight Eisenhower was right about Brown v. Board of Education and the desegregation of Little Rock schools even if such helped him not in the least.

Once Americans see what the doctrinaire GOP has to offer they will see things differently. Because it has no means of bring back the Dubya-era boom in real estate and crooked behavior by lenders and related parties, it too has no clue on how to get prosperity for more than about 5% of the people -- and that by $crewing the rest of us badly.  


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on August 17, 2010, 02:59:10 PM
News cycle. President Obama was right about the Islamic Cultural Center near Ground Zero (the First Amendment allows no other interpretation because it has no exceptions for popular judgment of other people's religion) even if his statement in support of the Islamic Cultural Center is unpopular. Dwight Eisenhower was right about Brown v. Board of Education and the desegregation of Little Rock schools even if such helped him not in the least.

Once Americans see what the doctrinaire GOP has to offer they will see things differently. Because it has no means of bring back the Dubya-era boom in real estate and crooked behavior by lenders and related parties, it too has no clue on how to get prosperity for more than about 5% of the people -- and that by $crewing the rest of us badly.  

Why don't you believe in polls? News cycle? It must be a very long news cycle, lasting almost 2 years, considering he's dropped ~25 points in the polls since he began his term.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese on August 17, 2010, 03:55:20 PM
No he's certainly not finished. Oppinions can actually swing very fast.

Remember Margret Thatcher, during her first four years she was both the most unpopular PM in British history, and the most popular.



Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on August 17, 2010, 04:07:13 PM
News cycle. President Obama was right about the Islamic Cultural Center near Ground Zero (the First Amendment allows no other interpretation because it has no exceptions for popular judgment of other people's religion) even if his statement in support of the Islamic Cultural Center is unpopular. Dwight Eisenhower was right about Brown v. Board of Education and the desegregation of Little Rock schools even if such helped him not in the least.

Once Americans see what the doctrinaire GOP has to offer they will see things differently. Because it has no means of bring back the Dubya-era boom in real estate and crooked behavior by lenders and related parties, it too has no clue on how to get prosperity for more than about 5% of the people -- and that by $crewing the rest of us badly.  

Why don't you believe in polls? News cycle? It must be a very long news cycle, lasting almost 2 years, considering he's dropped ~25 points in the polls since he began his term.

When it is over an event of transitory importance it reflects the news cycle and nothing else. Do you remember how President Obama's approval ratings sank when the Gusher in the Gulf was going badly and that his approval ratings rebounded afterward? The news events had no connection to any Obama policy.

The very high polls came from when people had unbounded optimism that every incoming President has. No, you cannot safely extrapolate every sudden trend safely. That the high temperature for Chicago on January 26 is 25 F and 20F on January 27 does not imply that the high temperature will be 15F on January 28, or that Chicago will have an unusually chilly summer. Tell a stockbroker that you want to buy into the market on the margin because you just saw three straight days of gain and you will be laughed at.

The last two Presidents to have practically no legislative agenda -- George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter -- kept higher poll numbers longer than Obama and still lost bids for re-election. Any President with any legislative agenda will step on some toes. You can be sure that Teddy Roosevelt was extremely unpopular among manufacturers of patent medicines that the Pure Food and Drug Act (1906) made unmarketable.  

As I said in 2009, President Obama will run on his record and win or run from his record and lose. He obviously can't run from his record anymore, so he loses only if something unusual happens for an incumbent President:

1. A derogatory scandal erupts with him at the center.

2. We have another economic meltdown much like that of September 2008.

3. A massive change of ideology -- let us say a revival of the Religious Right -- occurs. Such would take far more than a week.

4. An international debacle occurs.  



Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Sbane on August 17, 2010, 10:44:04 PM
If the election was held today yes, but the election is in 2012.

This


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Frodo on August 18, 2010, 07:56:24 PM
In much the same way Nixon, Reagan, and Clinton's presidencies were pretty much over after 1970, 1982, and 1994 respectively.  I'm still surprised how every historian has ignored the presidencies of George McGovern, Walter Mondale, and Bob Dole.  


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Beet on August 19, 2010, 02:16:13 AM
The 1970 and 1982 recessions were pre- liberalization recessions so there was a quick rebound. By 1994, the recession had already been over for 3 years, and it took another 2 years for voters to feel it. That is 5 years total. So the equivalent of 1996 in this scenario, assuming the recession ended in 2009, would be 2014. Too late.

The economy we have today, unlike the one in 1982, has gone through "restructuring" and "liberalization". It is a child of the Reagan revolution, the NAFTA revolution, the WTO revolution. The jobs ain't coming back, or ain't coming back fast enough.

I think Obama is f--ked, and I will say it now. He was f--ked from Day One. (Short of the Fed printing $5 trillion and him somehow convincing the nation of the need for a $2.5 trillion stimulus, but that opportunity has long since passed).

Megan McArdle nails it (http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/08/presidents-and-the-economy/61483/):

"It's sad, but the economy makes presidents seem like geniuses or clowns more than it should.  I think FDR basically did a good job with the banking system, but the fact remains that after 3 years of recession, the economy had probably bottomed out; if Herbert Hoover had taken office in 1930 instead of 1928, he might well have gone down in history as a great president.  Carter, too, got painted as an economic clown, even though he started the deregulation and liberalization that Reagan finished. Unfortunately, he also presided over an ugly, ugly recession induced by Paul Volcker's war on inflation.

Conversely, Bill Clinton may have done many good things, but he didn't make any meaningful contribution to the tech bubble, which drove the economy, and especially tax revenues, to soaring heights.

On election night in 2008, I saw a bunch of people twittering some variant of "It's 1932!"  This also seems to have been what Democrats in Congress thought--they seem to have believed that they had near-FDR levels of political capital to work with.  But as I said at the time, the relevant comparison was not 1932, but 1929.  Financial crises take a while to work through, and this one may well see Obama leaving office after one term, many of his policies tainted by association with a recession he didn't cause and couldn't ever have done much about.
(It also may not.  I think the economy is going to be stagnant for a few years as we work out our balance sheet issues and reallocate labor from the housing market.  But economic prognostication is a dismally poor science.)

Whichever way it works out, one side or another will overattribute the 2012 economy to Obama and the Democrats.  The fact is, the president can't do much more than tinker around the edges of a $14 trillion economy--for which we can humbly thank God every day.  If presidents really did have the kind of power over the economy that their friends or enemies try to claim, the world would be a much more terrifying place."

----

It's beautiful how a few short paragraphs describe everything you need to know about politics of the Obama Presidency. Forget everything ever written about health care, Mosque, oil spill, tea party, etc. etc. etc., Megan McArdle has just explained everything relevant.

In 2013, an extreme right wing Republican will be elected President by a huge margin, probably Sarah Palin, with a sizeable Republican majority in Congress, due solely to the economy. By 2016 the economy will have recovered enough to guarantee said Republican President's re-election. By the end of this term hard core conservatives activists will have a majority of the Supreme Court and start overturning the Warren era decisions. Racism will make a come back as blacks will be seen as incompetent and inferior due to Obama's failure. The young people who followed Obama will carry their disappoint with them for the rest of their lives and never be as idealistic or liberal again. All of Obama's policies, indeed all of liberalism, will be tainted by his perceived failure, regardless of what their merits might have been.

Basically, what happens in this country every day is getting played out on a grand scale. Spoiled, privileged Yalies like George Bush  things up and get bailed out by their parents. The black janitor gets called in to clean up the mess, and when he's done he goes back to his working class apartment while George and his friends go and  something else up. Obama is the janitor. During the Bush years, the private sector made trillions of bad loans, the federal budget structure became radically vulnerable to a downturn, and we got into two horrific wars funded by the Chinese who also took our jobs. But things seemed to be going well because the housing bubble kept going. Just as things were falling apart, Bush left office and told the janitor to come in and fix things up. After four years, he'll be thrown out.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: exopolitician on August 19, 2010, 03:21:39 AM
I'm still rather optimistic.

A. It's still 2010, we've got two more years. Let's chill.

B. The Republicans are going to have to pick one hell of a candidate to run in 2012, someone that isn't Palin, Huckabee, Romney, Jindal, or Gingrich. Someone fresh and new and isn't so much of a Hardcore right-wing nutjob, and Ive yet to really see someone.

C. Obama ran a great campaign in 2008 and will probably do so again in 2012 with the same people he surrounded himself in 2008. Also, going back to Republicans picking a good candidate, they cant run their platform on scare tactics and shameless attacks about Obama's personal life, which doesn't seem possible with the way they are acting currently. It needs to be about current events, the economy, and what people are really looking for for answers.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Donald Trump’s Toupée on August 19, 2010, 08:50:00 AM
I'm still rather optimistic.

A. It's still 2010, we've got two more years. Let's chill.

B. The Republicans are going to have to pick one hell of a candidate to run in 2012, someone that isn't Palin, Huckabee, Romney, Jindal, or Gingrich. Someone fresh and new and isn't so much of a Hardcore right-wing nutjob, and Ive yet to really see someone.

C. Obama ran a great campaign in 2008 and will probably do so again in 2012 with the same people he surrounded himself in 2008. Also, going back to Republicans picking a good candidate, they cant run their platform on scare tactics and shameless attacks about Obama's personal life, which doesn't seem possible with the way they are acting currently. It needs to be about current events, the economy, and what people are really looking for for answers.

A. Well you better hope the unemployment rate drops at least 2% (if not more) within the next 2 years.

B. No idea why liberals on this forum underestimate (or is that misunderestimate? lol) Mitt Romney. He's a strong, viable candidate, and the best option out there. He's got my vote.

C. Obama in 2008 had a message of hope and change, he had no other substantial record to run on. Being the first black president, while it shouldn't have mattered, made a difference too. Add to the fact that 2008 was a vote against the GOP and NOT a vote for the liberal agenda. It was a vote against McCain more than it was a vote for Obama.

That being said, Obama can't run on any of the above in 2012. He can't use silly abstractions like hope and change. He now has a pretty dismal (reference: current approval polls for the nation and on specific policies) record. And if unemployment and the economy is still pretty much stagnant, he will have no chance no matter who the GOP nominates.

It's amazing. The Democrats should have been able to dominate for at least a decade after coming off of what Bush seemingly did to the country (highly under rated president, but that's neither here nor there). Yet they're facing crushing defeats in November and a chance of losing the WH in 2012. If someone predicted that in 2008, we would have labeled them crazy. The fact that the GOP hasn't won voters over on their own is a concern, but the liberals should be worried about how badly they handled the last 2-4 years.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on August 19, 2010, 09:33:58 AM
I'm still rather optimistic.

A. It's still 2010, we've got two more years. Let's chill.

B. The Republicans are going to have to pick one hell of a candidate to run in 2012, someone that isn't Palin, Huckabee, Romney, Jindal, or Gingrich. Someone fresh and new and isn't so much of a Hardcore right-wing nutjob, and Ive yet to really see someone.

C. Obama ran a great campaign in 2008 and will probably do so again in 2012 with the same people he surrounded himself in 2008. Also, going back to Republicans picking a good candidate, they cant run their platform on scare tactics and shameless attacks about Obama's personal life, which doesn't seem possible with the way they are acting currently. It needs to be about current events, the economy, and what people are really looking for for answers.

A. Well you better hope the unemployment rate drops at least 2% (if not more) within the next 2 years.

Combat operations over in Iraq, the President will have to address economic issues. If Republicans balk, then he can use them as foils by running against Congress.

Quote
B. No idea why liberals on this forum underestimate (or is that misunderestimate? lol) Mitt Romney. He's a strong, viable candidate, and the best option out there. He's got my vote.

Flip-flop, flip-flop. Your opinion matters not in the least -- no more than mine.

Romney has the best chance to win if President Obama is a disaster. But is Obama a disaster? 

Quote
C. Obama in 2008 had a message of hope and change, he had no other substantial record to run on. Being the first black president, while it shouldn't have mattered, made a difference too. Add to the fact that 2008 was a vote against the GOP and NOT a vote for the liberal agenda. It was a vote against McCain more than it was a vote for Obama.

1. Barack Obama ran as an unabashed liberal.

2. He made promises of legislative activity and has gotten his legislative agenda passed -- one of the strongest indicators of an effective president. The last president so effective at that was Ronald Reagan. He made promises and achieved them.

3. He remains an optimist. Good pattern.

4. He has gotten American combat units out of Iraq. The mission really is accomplished -- this time. To be sure, I can't quite understand what good we were doing in Iraq after we overthrew Saddam Hussein. But that is over. President Obama has undone the second-most egregious blunder of his predecessor.

5. Now he has more legitimacy with which to deal with the economy.

Quote
That being said, Obama can't run on any of the above in 2012. He can't use silly abstractions like hope and change. He now has a pretty dismal (reference: current approval polls for the nation and on specific policies) record. And if unemployment and the economy is still pretty much stagnant, he will have no chance no matter who the GOP nominates.

Americans will be satisfied with genuine progress. Watch the deficits shrink. The exit from Iraq will sink in, and Americans will get more confidence.

Underinvestment? Corporate America is now playing a gambit by hoarding cash instead of hiring and investing. The privileged classes would hire and invest again if they got their way (for them, going beyond Dubya-era tax cuts, maybe even exemption of the rich from taxes?), just as the hack philosopher Ayn Rand suggested. The GOP is trying to slow the economy so that Americans will turn to economic abusers of recent years  as "saviors".

So when the Dubya-era tax cuts expire in 2011 when the Democrats still hold majorities in both Houses in Congress, the gambit fails. Then it is back to normal.

Quote
It's amazing. The Democrats should have been able to dominate for at least a decade after coming off of what Bush seemingly did to the country (highly under rated president, but that's neither here nor there). Yet they're facing crushing defeats in November and a chance of losing the WH in 2012. If someone predicted that in 2008, we would have labeled them crazy. The fact that the GOP hasn't won voters over on their own is a concern, but the liberals should be worried about how badly they handled the last 2-4 years.

That's exactly how the GOP prospects looked... in 1982.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Phony Moderate on June 07, 2012, 09:05:28 PM
Bump again....


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 07, 2012, 09:56:05 PM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 07, 2012, 10:20:39 PM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

So you see Romney as being a one-term President if he ever reaches the White House?  I thought you had higher expectations of him than that.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 07, 2012, 11:03:03 PM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

So you see Romney as being a one-term President if he ever reaches the White House?  I thought you had higher expectations of him than that.

Now now, we all know this thread is about Obama, not Romney.

But thank you for your great sense of humor.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on June 07, 2012, 11:27:40 PM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

So you see Romney as being a one-term President if he ever reaches the White House?  I thought you had higher expectations of him than that.

Now now, we all know this thread is about Obama, not Romney.

But thank you for your great sense of humor.


Wow... you're so disciplined, just like the Romney message 'my past is only to be discussed on my terms'.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on June 07, 2012, 11:34:17 PM
lolno


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 07, 2012, 11:47:59 PM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

So you see Romney as being a one-term President if he ever reaches the White House?  I thought you had higher expectations of him than that.

Now now, we all know this thread is about Obama, not Romney.

But thank you for your great sense of humor.


Wow... you're so disciplined, just like the Romney message 'my past is only to be discussed on my terms'.

Oh my, what side of the bed did you get out on this morning?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 08, 2012, 12:12:03 AM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

So you see Romney as being a one-term President if he ever reaches the White House?  I thought you had higher expectations of him than that.

Now now, we all know this thread is about Obama, not Romney.

A thread about Obama being finished doesn't pertain to Romney?

Since when did you join the r3VO⅃ution?


Glad to oblige.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on June 08, 2012, 12:18:51 AM
Quote
But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

You should have some faith in your man, Winfield.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 08, 2012, 11:42:09 PM
Quote
But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

You should have some faith in your man, Winfield.

So you're admitting that Mitt will win in 2012, and saying that I doubt he will win re-election in 2016.  :)


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자) on June 09, 2012, 02:09:05 PM
Quote
But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

You should have some faith in your man, Winfield.

So you're admitting that Mitt will win in 2012, and saying that I doubt he will win re-election in 2016.  :)

Romney will be young enough to try again in 2016 if he loses this time and then run for reelection in 2020 if he wins in 2016.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 09, 2012, 02:11:53 PM
LOL NO


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas on June 09, 2012, 02:12:49 PM
Not yet, but another "The Private sector is doing fine" or fight with the Supreme Court and he could be getting close to it.

Fact is, a whole lot of factors are against him. If he wins re-election, it'll be because he was a much better candidate than Romney. And lately, he hasn't been.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: old timey villain on June 09, 2012, 02:48:34 PM
Please, Romney only seems strong because he was the least incompetent in a historically weak and pathetic field of challengers.

Team Obama has already won a presidential election. Team Romney hasn't. Team Obama knows what it takes. Team Romney just hopes throwing enough money at the campaign will hide the fact that Romney is awkward, out of touch, disingenuous, and offers no bold solutions.

Obama is the better campaigner.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Purch on June 09, 2012, 04:13:08 PM
Please, Romney only seems strong because he was the least incompetent in a historically weak and pathetic field of challengers.

Team Obama has already won a presidential election. Team Romney hasn't. Team Obama knows what it takes. Team Romney just hopes throwing enough money at the campaign will hide the fact that Romney is awkward, out of touch, disingenuous, and offers no bold solutions.

Obama is the better campaigner.

Two things, One, Romney doesn't seem strong, Romney has seemed weak from the very beginning similar to the current state of President Obama. Romney has never been and will never be a strong politican he's flawed in to many areas.

And in terms of being out of touch and offering no bold solutions I was just saying the same thing about the both campaigns.

Politicians must be out of touch with independents if they don't realize that independents don't enjoy being pounded by negative adds, If anything Independents are the most most fed up with what the two major political parties have degraded to. And also no ones offering any "real big solutions" including the Obama campaign, neither of them are campaigning on their vision for the future but rather trying to make the other candidate seem completely incapable of creating a better America the next 4 years. Negativity sells to the dem/rep base, Vision sells to independents.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: zorkpolitics on June 09, 2012, 04:18:30 PM
Obama ran a great campaign as a challenger, maybe the best, when he could aspire to be all things to all voters.

But so far he seems to be floundering in an attempt to run a re-election campaign, where he must actually stand for something and defend a less than impressive record


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Purch on June 09, 2012, 04:21:24 PM
Obama's 2008 campaign was run on a clear cut vision for change and the future (What both candidates should be doing now)

Unfortunately both 2012 campaigns are run on purely negative adds.




Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on June 09, 2012, 04:31:20 PM
Quote
But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

You should have some faith in your man, Winfield.

So you're admitting that Mitt will win in 2012, and saying that I doubt he will win re-election in 2016.  :)

Romney will be young enough to try again in 2016 if he loses this time and then run for reelection in 2020 if he wins in 2016.

Romney will be 69 in 2016, younger than Reagan was while elected to is first term as well as younger than McCain in 2008. Not to mention Bob Dole, lol.

Yet if Romney loses in 2012, I have really hard time seeing him having a shot again in 2016. Remember that a lot of strong potential candidates decided to sit out this season.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Purch on June 09, 2012, 04:38:22 PM

 
Quote
But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

You should have some faith in your man, Winfield.

So you're admitting that Mitt will win in 2012, and saying that I doubt he will win re-election in 2016.  :)

Romney will be young enough to try again in 2016 if he loses this time and then run for reelection in 2020 if he wins in 2016.

Romney will be 69 in 2016, younger than Reagan was while elected to is first term as well as younger than McCain in 2008. Not to mention Bob Dole, lol.

Yet if Romney loses in 2012, I have really hard time seeing him having a shot again in 2016. Remember that a lot of strong potential candidates decided to sit out this season.


No one who ran this year should run in 2016 (Ron Paul's retiring) They're all pretty bad candidates. Newt should just retire from Public office since something about his arrogance gets to me.



Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on June 10, 2012, 03:39:32 PM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

()


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: mondale84 on June 10, 2012, 03:53:56 PM
I can see America re-electing a black President.

But I can't see America re-electing an incompetent President.

()

Amen


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on June 10, 2012, 06:54:03 PM
If Romney loses in 2012, there is no way he runs in 2016.  His time to run will have passed.

2012 is do or die politically for Romney.

This election is winnable for Romney.  I say winnable, not a certainty.  It is far from a certainty, for either candidate I might add.

Romney is running against a candidate who has turned in a less than sterling performance during his term.  12.7 million unemployed, 5 million of them for more than six months.  (CNN)

According to this forecast, unemployment is expected to be 8.4% in October, not a good unemployment number just before the election for a President running for re-election.

http://www.forecasts.org/unemploy.htm

U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate Forecast
Percent Unemployed, Seasonally Adjusted
  
1 May 2012 8.2
2 Jun 2012 8.1  
3 Jul 2012 8.1  
4 Aug 2012 8.2  
5 Sep 2012 8.3  
6 Oct 2012 8.4  
Updated Friday, May 18, 2012

So yes, this election is winnable for Romney.

But Romney has to quit shooting from the lip and stay on message.  He has to avoid making gaffes, and he has made plenty of them during this campaign.    



Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on June 10, 2012, 06:58:32 PM
Romney is weak candidate, and if Obama loses, he'll have no one but himself to blame and he should have probably paid some attention to the 2 1/2 year old cartoon in my signature.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Mister Twister on September 20, 2012, 11:47:37 PM
This thread is great. Especially this post.



Shut your hole. I'm tired of your posturing; I'm tired of you slick conservative ingrates lying through your wormy little teeth every time a Democrat is in the Presidency about how much you'll shrink the government. Not once since that moronic charlatan Reagan assumed the throne have you been honest, as an ideological wing prone to groupthink, with the American people.

But your days are numbered, my friend. Indeed, we can't fund any liberal social programs - which means we sure as Hell can't fund your favorite subsidies, like defense or the prison-industrial complex. I guarantee it. Conservatism is dead. I hope I get to see your head paraded on a pike with it.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: wan on September 21, 2012, 12:18:33 AM
This thread is great. Especially this post.
 



Shut your hole. I'm tired of your posturing; I'm tired of you slick conservative ingrates lying through your wormy little teeth every time a Democrat is in the Presidency about how much you'll shrink the government. Not once since that moronic charlatan Reagan assumed the throne have you been honest, as an ideological wing prone to groupthink, with the American people.

But your days are numbered, my friend. Indeed, we can't fund any liberal social programs - which means we sure as Hell can't fund your favorite subsidies, like defense or the prison-industrial complex. I guarantee it. Conservatism is dead. I hope I get to see your head paraded on a pike with it.



You must be bored because this thread is from June. You must of did a lot of searching for it mister twister


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Northeast Rep Snowball on September 21, 2012, 12:44:46 AM
Sure, but its still an overthetop post that people post.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 21, 2012, 04:55:12 AM
You know Obama is the clear favourite when Winfield says the race is winnable for Romney.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Snowstalker Mk. II on September 21, 2012, 06:36:33 AM
This is beautiful.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Politico on September 21, 2012, 06:48:04 AM
You know Obama is the clear favourite when Winfield says the race is winnable for Romney.

It's always a winnable win with Winfield on your team.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: pbrower2a on September 21, 2012, 09:24:40 AM
Obama ran a great campaign as a challenger, maybe the best, when he could aspire to be all things to all voters.

But so far he seems to be floundering in an attempt to run a re-election campaign, where he must actually stand for something and defend a less than impressive record

He has a long list of legislative achievements -- in his first two years. He put a swift end to the most dangerous economic economic meltdown in nearly 80 years. The only constituency of 2008 that he lost was the financial sector who would have voted for the Islamic Brotherhood or the KKK if such would have saved their skins and, having had their needs met, now concern themselves with taxes on their income. Such people are small components of the electorate, and they are heavily concentrated in states that President Obama has no chance of losing.

He is consistent. He is not losing his core constituencies.   


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: AmericanNation on September 21, 2012, 01:49:33 PM
Obama ran a great campaign as a challenger, maybe the best, when he could aspire to be all things to all voters.

But so far he seems to be floundering in an attempt to run a re-election campaign, where he must actually stand for something and defend a less than impressive record

He has a long list of legislative achievements -- in his first two years. He put a swift end to the most dangerous economic economic meltdown in nearly 80 years. The only constituency of 2008 that he lost was the financial sector who would have voted for the Islamic Brotherhood or the KKK if such would have saved their skins and, having had their needs met, now concern themselves with taxes on their income. Such people are small components of the electorate, and they are heavily concentrated in states that President Obama has no chance of losing.

He is consistent. He is not losing his core constituencies.   

"His" constituencies turnout will be lower than 2008 and his opponents turnout will be quite a bit higher.  Some will swing from voting Obama to voting against him.  Almost none will go the other way.  All that can be true and Obama could still win.   


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Niemeyerite on September 21, 2012, 04:30:17 PM
You know Obama is the clear favourite when Winfield says the race is winnable for Romney.

It's always a winnable win with Winfield on your team.

It's always winnable, but you never win.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Mister Twister on October 10, 2012, 02:01:56 AM
How about now?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Sbane on October 10, 2012, 05:31:46 AM
Yes, Obama will only win by 1-2 points now. Obviously he is finished.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 10, 2012, 07:48:34 AM
Yes, he's finished now, wish I could change my vote in this poll.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 10, 2012, 07:58:11 AM
Yes, he's finished now, wish I could change my vote in this poll.

It's funny, the GOP needs depressed Democratic enthusiasm and turnout... and people like you are contributing to what could ACTUALLY bring Obama down...

Yes, that means you are part of the problem


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 10, 2012, 08:04:18 AM
Yes, he's finished now, wish I could change my vote in this poll.

It's funny, the GOP needs depressed Democratic enthusiasm and turnout... and people like you are contributing to what could ACTUALLY bring Obama down...

Yes, that means you are part of the problem

Of course we're all part of the problem, Polnut - like an Occupy protester buying a Starbuck's coffee - unless we're out literally getting ourselves killed.  In which case you're still grist for the mill, if not precisely part of the mill.

I don't worry much about my pessimism detering any voting.  I've been saying the same thing for years and years now, and I've hardly reached many voters.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 10, 2012, 08:06:15 AM
That is true - your 2008 predictions were hilariously frought


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Middle-aged Europe on October 10, 2012, 08:06:55 AM
It's 1976 all over again!

Barack Obama is the new Gerald Ford, Mitt Romney the new Jimmy Carter!!!


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 10, 2012, 08:08:00 AM
That is true - your 2008 predictions were hilariously frought

I was proven wrong then by the extraordinary circumstances, but this particularly disgusting campaign is, I think, proving my overall analysis.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on October 10, 2012, 08:10:03 AM
Yes, he's finished now, wish I could change my vote in this poll.

It's funny, the GOP needs depressed Democratic enthusiasm and turnout... and people like you are contributing to what could ACTUALLY bring Obama down...

Yes, that means you are part of the problem

Actually, it could help increase the sense of hopelessness.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 10, 2012, 08:12:43 AM
Yes, he's finished now, wish I could change my vote in this poll.

It's funny, the GOP needs depressed Democratic enthusiasm and turnout... and people like you are contributing to what could ACTUALLY bring Obama down...

Yes, that means you are part of the problem

Actually, it could help increase the sense of hopelessness.

That's what he's saying, J.J.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Grumpier Than Uncle Joe on October 10, 2012, 08:57:47 AM
I don't think he's finished but he's looking quite desperate....downright silly, in fact.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 10, 2012, 09:02:41 AM
I don't think he's finished but he's looking quite desperate....downright silly, in fact.

I haven't even seen a single sign of him since the collapse.  Where've you seen him Grumps?

In fact only whites could possibly save him now, he can't save himself: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161227.0



Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Grumpier Than Uncle Joe on October 10, 2012, 09:27:30 AM
I don't think he's finished but he's looking quite desperate....downright silly, in fact.

I haven't even seen a single sign of him since the collapse.  Where've you seen him Grumps?

In fact only whites could possibly save him now, he can't save himself: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161227.0



He's made public appearances and he's been lame, but his minions, opebo.....pathetic.  Then these stupid ads.  Keeping Biden in hiding (maybe not a bad idea)....these guys are cocky bastards at heart, but Obama is acting like a beaten down puppy left in the rain.  I'm sure the valium prescriptions shot way up in his  Chicago HQ since the debate.   He's not inspiring anyone at this moment.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: AmericanNation on October 10, 2012, 10:53:08 AM
I don't think he's finished but he's looking quite desperate....downright silly, in fact.

I haven't even seen a single sign of him since the collapse.  Where've you seen him Grumps?

In fact only whites could possibly save him now, he can't save himself: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=161227.0



He's made public appearances and he's been lame, but his minions, opebo.....pathetic.  Then these stupid ads.  Keeping Biden in hiding (maybe not a bad idea)....these guys are cocky bastards at heart, but Obama is acting like a beaten down puppy left in the rain.  I'm sure the valium prescriptions shot way up in his  Chicago HQ since the debate.   He's not inspiring anyone at this moment.

This has basically been Obama his entire term in office (weak, leading from behind, no plan, demagogic, in over his head, uninterested), but he wasn't as exposed as he is now.  Amazing what 90 minutes of sunshine can 'find'. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Silent Hunter on October 10, 2012, 11:44:14 AM
There are still three debates and a lot could change - Romney's RCP average is only 0.7% ahead.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: © tweed on October 10, 2012, 11:46:07 AM
most votes I've ever seen in a poll on this site.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Cryptic on October 10, 2012, 01:37:33 PM
There's still roughly a month to go, three more debates, and more time for polls to shift.  To say Obama is finished already is silly.  Romney won a debate and tightened the race, but it's not over yet. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Cobbler on October 10, 2012, 01:52:27 PM
There's still roughly a month to go, three more debates, and more time for polls to shift.  To say Obama is finished already is silly.  Romney won a debate and tightened the race, but it's not over yet. 

Exactly. If Romney has a bad debate and/or Obama has a good one, this could easily swing again. A week ago, we were saying Romney was finished. Clearly that isn't the case anymore, but to say Obama is because he's been beat out by Romney for one week is overreacting.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: milhouse24 on October 10, 2012, 09:23:46 PM
I don't think Americans want another white president.  We want a president who makes us feel good and can connect to us personally at an emotional level.  Obama may not be the best president ever, but he's pretty darn close.  Besides, Obama should get some bonus points because he is the First Black President, and its difficult for a Black man to understand the dominant white culture of the clubby DC government world.  As the saying in business goes, its about understanding and adapting to the company culture.  The white culture is difficult to understand and a Black Man will never get respect in a white culture no matter how he acts or behaves. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 10, 2012, 09:27:49 PM
I don't think Americans want another white president.  We want a president who makes us feel good and can connect to us personally at an emotional level.  Obama may not be the best president ever, but he's pretty darn close.  Besides, Obama should get some bonus points because he is the First Black President, and its difficult for a Black man to understand the dominant white culture of the clubby DC government world.  As the saying in business goes, its about understanding and adapting to the company culture.  The white culture is difficult to understand and a Black Man will never get respect in a white culture no matter how he acts or behaves. 

What the hell is this?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on October 10, 2012, 09:28:36 PM
I think Americans want a president who can solve the economic problems.  I doubt if they care about the amount of melanin in his/her skin.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Cliffy on October 10, 2012, 09:31:15 PM
Lol.  I highly doubt most people care about the race of the president, they care about who might be able to fix the economy more.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Frodo on October 10, 2012, 09:37:51 PM
If President Obama doesn't turn things around in the second (townhall) debate, then yes he would likely be finished.  We would all be talking about the last great triumph of White America with the election of Mitt Romney -this being the last election in U.S. history in which a presidential candidate can be elected to the Presidency primarily on the backs of white voters.    


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on October 10, 2012, 09:51:58 PM
The economy needs to be turned around, millions of unemployed Americans are looking for work, the middle east is a powder keg, innocent children and being tortured and murdered on almost a daily basis in Syria, and this President is running ads with Big Bird.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: milhouse24 on October 10, 2012, 09:54:24 PM
If President Obama doesn't turn things around in the second (townhall) debate, then yes he would likely be finished.  We would all be talking about the last great triumph of White America with the election of Mitt Romney -this being the last election in U.S. history in which a presidential candidate can be elected to the Presidency primarily on the backs of white voters.    

I agree, the next President will be Black or Hispanic.  There will be no more white presidents in my lifetime.  The Hispanic growth is just too strong to ignore.  There is a small number of illegal hispanics, but when Obama wins his second term, he will hopefully legalize or give green cards to Hispanic illegals.  The next president would likely be fluent in Spanish.  In addition, I hope the next president is a Roman Catholic, because for too long the white americans have branded good Catholics Like Ted Kennedy as extremists.  This election is about respect.  Brown skinned Americans will finally get the respect they deserve.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 10, 2012, 09:59:52 PM
If President Obama doesn't turn things around in the second (townhall) debate, then yes he would likely be finished.  We would all be talking about the last great triumph of White America with the election of Mitt Romney -this being the last election in U.S. history in which a presidential candidate can be elected to the Presidency primarily on the backs of white voters.    

I agree, the next President will be Black or Hispanic.  There will be no more white presidents in my lifetime.  The Hispanic growth is just too strong to ignore.  There is a small number of illegal hispanics, but when Obama wins his second term, he will hopefully legalize or give green cards to Hispanic illegals.  The next president would likely be fluent in Spanish.  In addition, I hope the next president is a Roman Catholic, because for too long the white americans have branded good Catholics Like Ted Kennedy as extremists.  This election is about respect.  Brown skinned Americans will finally get the respect they deserve.

Just a question... are you in the process of having a stroke?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: 5280 on October 10, 2012, 10:00:46 PM
The economy needs to be turned around, millions of unemployed Americans are looking for work, the middle east is a powder keg, innocent children and being tortured and murdered on almost a daily basis in Syria, and this President is running ads with Big Bird.
I agree, this country continues to plummet down the toilet each day when it's distracted with moot political ads.  We need to get back to the point.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 10, 2012, 10:07:23 PM
If President Obama doesn't turn things around in the second (townhall) debate, then yes he would likely be finished.  We would all be talking about the last great triumph of White America with the election of Mitt Romney -this being the last election in U.S. history in which a presidential candidate can be elected to the Presidency primarily on the backs of white voters.    

I agree, the next President will be Black or Hispanic.  There will be no more white presidents in my lifetime.  The Hispanic growth is just too strong to ignore.  There is a small number of illegal hispanics, but when Obama wins his second term, he will hopefully legalize or give green cards to Hispanic illegals.  The next president would likely be fluent in Spanish.  In addition, I hope the next president is a Roman Catholic, because for too long the white americans have branded good Catholics Like Ted Kennedy as extremists.  This election is about respect.  Brown skinned Americans will finally get the respect they deserve.

Just a question... are you in the process of having a stroke?
Really dude, what's up with you?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: 5280 on October 10, 2012, 10:09:53 PM
If President Obama doesn't turn things around in the second (townhall) debate, then yes he would likely be finished.  We would all be talking about the last great triumph of White America with the election of Mitt Romney -this being the last election in U.S. history in which a presidential candidate can be elected to the Presidency primarily on the backs of white voters.    

I agree, the next President will be Black or Hispanic.  There will be no more white presidents in my lifetime.  The Hispanic growth is just too strong to ignore.  There is a small number of illegal hispanics, but when Obama wins his second term, he will hopefully legalize or give green cards to Hispanic illegals.  The next president would likely be fluent in Spanish.  In addition, I hope the next president is a Roman Catholic, because for too long the white americans have branded good Catholics Like Ted Kennedy as extremists.  This election is about respect.  Brown skinned Americans will finally get the respect they deserve.
We can count on the next Hispanic president to be Republican.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on October 10, 2012, 10:18:32 PM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: 5280 on October 10, 2012, 10:21:47 PM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.
Rubio sounded presidential during the RNC, why not look into him?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Lincoln Republican on October 10, 2012, 10:31:37 PM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.
Rubio sounded presidential during the RNC, why not look into him?

He's a good possibility to be on a national ticket someday.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Warren 4 Secretary of Everything on October 10, 2012, 10:32:56 PM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.
Rubio sounded presidential during the RNC, why not look into him?

He's a good possibility to be on a national ticket someday.
I'd rather it be Sandoval or Martinez.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 10, 2012, 10:34:07 PM
I'm sure people can guess who I want the first Hispanic president to be.

:D


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Mister Twister on October 10, 2012, 10:36:01 PM
I'm sure people can guess who I want the first Hispanic president to be.

:D

Hagrid isn't Hispanic and he's also fictional.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Biden 2024 on October 10, 2012, 11:00:17 PM
I'm sure people can guess who I want the first Hispanic president to be.

:D

Julian "Jay" Castro!


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Frodo on October 10, 2012, 11:04:37 PM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.

It might help you to understand my post if you read this (http://readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/72-72/13142-focus-the-last-white-election-strategy).  


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: AmericanNation on October 11, 2012, 08:21:45 AM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.

It might help you to understand my post if you read this (http://readersupportednews.org/off-site-opinion-section/72-72/13142-focus-the-last-white-election-strategy).  

I think people will try to get over 50% of the PV and over 270 EVs in the future... just a guess. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 11, 2012, 09:31:26 AM
...Americans ... I doubt if they care about the amount of melanin in his/her skin.

Wow, you're very wrong there.  This is their number one consideration.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: AmericanNation on October 11, 2012, 10:37:04 AM
...Americans ... I doubt if they care about the amount of melanin in his/her skin.

Wow, you're very wrong there.  This is their number one consideration.

This is their number one consideration
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHPvfAt5ow


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: milhouse24 on October 11, 2012, 10:58:42 AM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.

I think there may be more half-white presidents.  Hillary Clinton will run for president again, But if she gets the nomination, I don't think she will win overall.  I think Jeb Bush's son will make a good president since he is half Mexican.  There may some day be a real practicing Muslim as president. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Sol on October 11, 2012, 11:02:32 AM
If President Obama doesn't turn things around in the second (townhall) debate, then yes he would likely be finished.  We would all be talking about the last great triumph of White America with the election of Mitt Romney -this being the last election in U.S. history in which a presidential candidate can be elected to the Presidency primarily on the backs of white voters.    

I agree, the next President will be Black or Hispanic.  There will be no more white presidents in my lifetime.  The Hispanic growth is just too strong to ignore.  There is a small number of illegal hispanics, but when Obama wins his second term, he will hopefully legalize or give green cards to Hispanic illegals.  The next president would likely be fluent in Spanish.  In addition, I hope the next president is a Roman Catholic, because for too long the white americans have branded good Catholics Like Ted Kennedy as extremists.  This election is about respect.  Brown skinned Americans will finally get the respect they deserve.
Seriously?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Edu on October 11, 2012, 01:22:12 PM
I don't really know much about the guy so I'm sorry if this is a stupid question, but isn't Marco Rubio white?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: 5280 on October 11, 2012, 01:26:29 PM
I don't really know much about the guy so I'm sorry if this is a stupid question, but isn't Marco Rubio white?
He is Cuban American.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Edu on October 11, 2012, 01:36:29 PM
I don't really know much about the guy so I'm sorry if this is a stupid question, but isn't Marco Rubio white?
He is Cuban American.

Yeah, I know. I'm also aware that in the US Hispanic is considered a race instead of just people from spanish speaking countries. But since there can be white Hispanics like him I wondered if he would still be considered a Non-White president if elected or the "hispanic" part is the one that takes precedence when determining your race.
Sorry, but I'm not really well versed in this area :P


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on October 11, 2012, 03:36:42 PM
Obama will turn it around in the 2nd Debate. he even admit to being too "Nice" in the first Debate.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Northeast Rep Snowball on October 11, 2012, 04:02:33 PM
well... The thing is the fat that the second debate isn't won becuase he made a mistake in the first one.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: LastVoter on October 11, 2012, 04:07:33 PM
I don't really know much about the guy so I'm sorry if this is a stupid question, but isn't Marco Rubio white?
He is Cuban American.

Yeah, I know. I'm also aware that in the US Hispanic is considered a race instead of just people from spanish speaking countries. But since there can be white Hispanics like him I wondered if he would still be considered a Non-White president if elected or the "hispanic" part is the one that takes precedence when determining your race.
Sorry, but I'm not really well versed in this area :P
Yes Rubio is white rather than Amerindian. But the media describes him as Hispanic, and it would be politically incorrect to describe him as anything else.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on October 11, 2012, 04:51:54 PM
I don't really know much about the guy so I'm sorry if this is a stupid question, but isn't Marco Rubio white?
He is Cuban American.

Yeah, I know. I'm also aware that in the US Hispanic is considered a race instead of just people from spanish speaking countries. But since there can be white Hispanics like him I wondered if he would still be considered a Non-White president if elected or the "hispanic" part is the one that takes precedence when determining your race.
Sorry, but I'm not really well versed in this area :P
Yes Rubio is white rather than Amerindian. But the media describes him as Hispanic, and it would be politically incorrect to describe him as anything else.

First, there were a lot of Amerindians in Cuba, so he might be. 

Second, while not a "race," Hispanics are definitely a minority group.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: LastVoter on October 11, 2012, 05:23:18 PM
I don't really know much about the guy so I'm sorry if this is a stupid question, but isn't Marco Rubio white?
He is Cuban American.

Yeah, I know. I'm also aware that in the US Hispanic is considered a race instead of just people from spanish speaking countries. But since there can be white Hispanics like him I wondered if he would still be considered a Non-White president if elected or the "hispanic" part is the one that takes precedence when determining your race.
Sorry, but I'm not really well versed in this area :P
Yes Rubio is white rather than Amerindian. But the media describes him as Hispanic, and it would be politically incorrect to describe him as anything else.

First, there were a lot of Amerindians in Cuba, so he might be. 

Second, while not a "race," Hispanics are definitely a minority group.
I thought that all Amerindians died on most islands after the spanish made a visit, so you only had black slaves and the Spanish.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Biden 2024 on October 11, 2012, 06:16:32 PM
Well, unless you're about 90 years old now, there will be plenty of white Presidents in your lifetime.  In fact, I believe Obama will be the only non white President for some time to come.

Just sayin'.

I think there may be more half-white presidents.  Hillary Clinton will run for president again, But if she gets the nomination, I don't think she will win overall.  I think Jeb Bush's son will make a good president since he is half Mexican.  There may some day be a real practicing Muslim as president. 

Please. Please. Just stop!


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 11, 2012, 06:19:57 PM
...Americans ... I doubt if they care about the amount of melanin in his/her skin.

Wow, you're very wrong there.  This is their number one consideration.

This is their number one consideration
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHPvfAt5ow

Nonsense.  All the ones who have a job already are free to indulge in their racism - that's something like 95% of whites.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: AmericanNation on October 11, 2012, 09:48:46 PM
...Americans ... I doubt if they care about the amount of melanin in his/her skin.

Wow, you're very wrong there.  This is their number one consideration.

This is their number one consideration
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BBHPvfAt5ow

Nonsense.  All the ones who have a job already are free to indulge in their racism - that's something like 95% of whites.
unemployment is over 10%.  That effects everyone because of government programs and debt issues.   


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: milhouse24 on October 11, 2012, 10:36:27 PM
Obama will turn it around in the 2nd Debate. he even admit to being too "Nice" in the first Debate.

Obama needed to appear as the "safe Black guy" in order to keep the media on his side. 

If he went at Romney too hard, the media will label him the "angry black guy" and that will turn off white swing voters. 

White swing voters cannot handle any Black person who appears "dangerous or violent" even if they are just being assertive and strong-willed.  White people are easily intimidated by big Black Men, and Obama is acutely aware of this double-standard because his own white grandmother said that she was afraid of a homeless Black man who accosted her in Hawaii, and she didn't want to walk to work alone because of that incident. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Ty440 on October 11, 2012, 10:42:24 PM
Obama will turn it around in the 2nd Debate. he even admit to being too "Nice" in the first Debate.

Obama needed to appear as the "safe Black guy" in order to keep the media on his side. 

If he went at Romney too hard, the media will label him the "angry black guy" and that will turn off white swing voters. 

White swing voters cannot handle any Black person who appears "dangerous or violent" even if they are just being assertive and strong-willed.  White people are easily intimidated by big Black Men, and Obama is acutely aware of this double-standard because his own white grandmother said that she was afraid of a homeless Black man who accosted her in Hawaii, and she didn't want to walk to work alone because of that incident. 


When did atlasforurm turn into stormfront.org ?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 11, 2012, 10:46:47 PM
Obama will turn it around in the 2nd Debate. he even admit to being too "Nice" in the first Debate.

Obama needed to appear as the "safe Black guy" in order to keep the media on his side. 

If he went at Romney too hard, the media will label him the "angry black guy" and that will turn off white swing voters. 

White swing voters cannot handle any Black person who appears "dangerous or violent" even if they are just being assertive and strong-willed.  White people are easily intimidated by big Black Men, and Obama is acutely aware of this double-standard because his own white grandmother said that she was afraid of a homeless Black man who accosted her in Hawaii, and she didn't want to walk to work alone because of that incident. 

What the **** is wrong with you?


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on October 11, 2012, 10:51:24 PM

I thought that all Amerindians died on most islands after the spanish made a visit, so you only had black slaves and the Spanish.

No, they were enslaved (including ones brought in from Central America), though small pox killed a lot.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Brittain33 on October 12, 2012, 06:08:52 AM

I thought that all Amerindians died on most islands after the spanish made a visit, so you only had black slaves and the Spanish.

No, they were enslaved (including ones brought in from Central America), though small pox killed a lot.

The numbers in Hispaniola dropped from the hundreds of thousands to a few hundred within about 50 years. They left no trace in the population. I don't expect Cuba would be any different.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: opebo on October 12, 2012, 02:29:07 PM
Nonsense.  All the ones who have a job already are free to indulge in their racism - that's something like 95% of whites.
unemployment is over 10%.  That effects everyone because of government programs and debt issues.   

No, dude, unemployment overall is about 7.8%, and it is lower among whites than among the subject races.  Bureau of Labor statistics says that unemployment among whites is 7%, so I stand corrected, white who have a job are 93%, not 95%.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Badger on October 12, 2012, 03:31:45 PM
Obama will turn it around in the 2nd Debate. he even admit to being too "Nice" in the first Debate.

Obama needed to appear as the "safe Black guy" in order to keep the media on his side. 

If he went at Romney too hard, the media will label him the "angry black guy" and that will turn off white swing voters. 

White swing voters cannot handle any Black person who appears "dangerous or violent" even if they are just being assertive and strong-willed.  White people are easily intimidated by big Black Men, and Obama is acutely aware of this double-standard because his own white grandmother said that she was afraid of a homeless Black man who accosted her in Hawaii, and she didn't want to walk to work alone because of that incident. 


When did atlasforurm turn into stormfront.org ?

It's just Milhouse, people. Read any of his posts about gay marriage or Paul "big biceps" Ryan and it's clear he's a "special" case scared of his own errection--mostly because he's secretly afraid he'll allow a gay do things with it.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: milhouse24 on October 13, 2012, 01:44:55 PM
Nonsense.  All the ones who have a job already are free to indulge in their racism - that's something like 95% of whites.
unemployment is over 10%.  That effects everyone because of government programs and debt issues.   

No, dude, unemployment overall is about 7.8%, and it is lower among whites than among the subject races.  Bureau of Labor statistics says that unemployment among whites is 7%, so I stand corrected, white who have a job are 93%, not 95%.

I think that Black Unemployment is the hidden issue in this election.  Its a shame Obama is ignoring and taking for granted the Black Unemployed.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Mister Twister on October 22, 2012, 05:53:43 PM
In all seriousness, with two weeks to go, things are looking pretty damn bad for Obama right now


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 06:24:01 PM
In all seriousness, with two weeks to go, things are looking pretty damn bad for Obama right now

But not over.  If we start seeing good polls for Romney in OH and in some of NV, CO, IA, WI and NH, it is over. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: old timey villain on October 22, 2012, 06:32:54 PM
In all seriousness, with two weeks to go, things are looking pretty damn bad for Obama right now

O rly? Please elaborate. I really want to hear your opinion because I know you're an actual Obama supporter and not some troll.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 07:40:30 PM

I thought that all Amerindians died on most islands after the spanish made a visit, so you only had black slaves and the Spanish.

No, they were enslaved (including ones brought in from Central America), though small pox killed a lot.

The numbers in Hispaniola dropped from the hundreds of thousands to a few hundred within about 50 years. They left no trace in the population. I don't expect Cuba would be any different.

Some of that was intermarriage (of which I am proof of a few hundred miles to the north). 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: AmericanNation on October 22, 2012, 10:01:22 PM
In all seriousness, with two weeks to go, things are looking pretty damn bad for Obama right now

But not over.  If we start seeing good polls for Romney in OH and in some of NV, CO, IA, WI and NH, it is over. 
I think Romney just sealed the deal.  Obama needs some major shake up now. 


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: J. J. on October 22, 2012, 10:48:16 PM
In all seriousness, with two weeks to go, things are looking pretty damn bad for Obama right now

But not over.  If we start seeing good polls for Romney in OH and in some of NV, CO, IA, WI and NH, it is over. 
I think Romney just sealed the deal.  Obama needs some major shake up now. 

He wasn't hurt.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 05, 2014, 04:35:18 AM
lol


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: SWE on October 08, 2014, 07:07:40 PM
Yes


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on October 18, 2014, 04:41:27 AM
I can't see America re-re-electing a black President.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: All Along The Watchtower on October 23, 2014, 06:36:44 PM
Obama 2016!


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: DS0816 on October 29, 2014, 05:59:15 PM
This thread was hilarious.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers on January 21, 2015, 11:59:10 AM
Obama as the communicator who can pass executive orders isn't done polically, but legislatively, yes he was done after the November 4th elections.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Vega on March 20, 2015, 06:24:30 PM
Obama as the communicator who can pass executive orders isn't done polically, but legislatively, yes he was done after the November 4th elections.

From what I've seen of oppebo's posts, I don't see what was so interesting about him.

Why both of you would re-re-bump and re-re-re bump respectively is beyond me.


Title: Re: Is Obama finished?
Post by: Sedona on April 21, 2015, 07:26:01 PM
Oh my god, this thread was actually a thing...