Talk Elections

I'm going to say the elections of 2064 and beyond.

Probably never.

Though, as Latinos become more white-washed and maybe even cease to self-ID as Latino/Hispanic than sure. I think a majority of Cuban-Americans self-ID as "White Hispanics" now, though I suppose they are being of mostly Spainard ancestry.

As immigrants assimilate, they will probably break up politically along racial and class lines.

Look at how things are stratified throughout Latin America.

Unless the GOP moderates its position on illegal immigrants I doubt that they'll have a chance at the Latino vote until the grandchildren of current illegal aliens are eligible to vote.

Never, unless the racial identity of being a Latino disappears.

Whiel illegal immigration is an important issue for many Latino voters, I read on numerous occasions that Latino voters also care about other issues a lot (such as healthcare, the economy, taxes, foreign policy, etc.) Besides, the Republicans lost the Latino vote even back when they were in favor of amnesty for illegals (under Reagan) or when illegal immigration was not that big of an issue.

Racial identity?

Probably never.

My guess, is that Latinos will evolve the way Italian Americans evolved politically, as to whom they are most similar I suspect in many ways (read Michael Barone's stuff on this issue, regarding which he is quite persuasive). So, in time, the GOP will indeed get a larger share. If they don't, the GOP is l'histoire, as I suspect the party is well aware.

Bad wording, I meant cultural identity.

Hopefully never.  Most hispanics I've come to know are socialists, very economically liberal and socially authoritarian, especially the women.  A lot of them voted for Bush and McCain for their social conservatism, but the Republican Party should leave the core of this demographic alone and pick up the more individualized (conservative) ones.  Republicans would be better off to go after asians, as most of them are inherently fiscally conservative.

The last three Republican Presidents (all self-declared "fiscal conservatives") were the most fiscally irresponsible Presidents in our nation's history. I doubt empasizing fiscal conservatism will win back Asian voters when the GOP have demonstrated time and time again that they are hypocrites on the issue.

Well, this maybe a good start:

http://jaimeherrera.com/

()()

I'd cross party lines for this (well at least in bed).  WOW!

I'm beginning to think you're gay.

Too many variables to say. The parties are overdue for a re-alignment and there is growing anxiety over immigration (illegal AND legal) that I think is about to reach a boiling point. Ultimately though I suspect that Torie is correct, as hispanics become more assimilated (perhaps even 'white') their voting patterns will become indistinguishable from other ethnics.

I don't think that's a dude.  Ok, I'm guilty of the Taylor Hanson thing from the 1990s.  I originally thought he was a hot blonde then I said "oh crap, that's a dude!"  MMMBop :P

opebo did it better :P

I don't think consistently is likely, but the GOP could compete on par with the DEMs in a decade or so IF Latinos are moving in an upwardly mobile direction AND the GOP effectively distances itself from xenophobia.

I suspect they'll be almost indistinguishable from whites within a few decades. They'll probably trend away from Democrats over time.

As Latinos become more assimilated and older generations die off, they will start voting more Republican than they do now.  Maybe 50 or 60 years, or possibly never.

Are these Hispanics that have been in the US for a long time? I mean the Dem Party does come closest to the government outlook that latino's probably had in their former country.

Yeah there was a poll in Gallup today that latino's that immigrant here favor bigger government activism by a 61-22% margin while latino's that were born here favor a more activist government by a less modest margin of 54-41. The Latino's population growth favors the Dems political idealogy but not as much with US born latino's.

Yeah Reagan and Bush W. did add to the deficit. Bush H.W. was trying to get the fiscal house in order. Plus under Obama the national debt has grown almost as much as Bush W. and Reagan deficits have combined.

I have heard that Latinos actually have a strong distrust of government.  They generally are very socially conservative, but Latinos who are born in the United States are more likely to support Republicans than those that aren't.  As the younger Latinos enter the voting populace (since more of them were born in America), they will become more Republican as a whole.  Of course, for Republicans to win a majority of the Latino vote, we will need to educate them about how our policies are better for them than the Democrats' policies.  For example, we are not anti-immigration.  We are anti-illegal immigration.  I feel that if you want to come to this country in search of a better life, you should at least do it legally.  It's a shame that the term "immigration reform" has become such a dirty word in some circles, because reforming the system is exactly what we need.  Polls also show that Latinos, especially younger Latinos, are more motivated by economic issues than immigration.   To me, it's all about tailoring your message based on your audience.

If the GOP wants a large share of the Latino vote, which is very much possible as we saw in 2004, they should stop passing xenophobic laws like we have seen in AZ and various other states. The Republican party has a choice to make. Do they go after the bigot vote or do they try and peel off Hispanics who are swing voters. The GOP is going with the first option currently because there are more votes to be gained there. They will move to the second option soon because it is inevitable but they better hope the damage isn't done like it was with the Black community. Though Hispanics are immigrants and their voting habits should be looked in that perspective, which is not similar at all to Black peoples experience. Still, if racist laws are continued to be passed, Republicans will lose the substantial support they still receive from US born Hispanics.

Also I would like to add that immigration reform or amnesty is not necessarily needed to get Hispanic votes. It would help and would speed up the process but as has been rightly pointed out, US born Hispanics don't care much about immigration issues and as has been seen they vote more Republican. But when you pass racist laws where they could be pulled over just because of how they look, that affects everyone who is Hispanic (or looks Hispanic) and whether they are US born or immigrants goes out the window. They will react by voting for Democrats to protect themselves against racism and discrimination. Republicans, wouldn't you do the same if this happened to you?

I'm starting to wonder if the immigration issue will be as big going forward as it is now, if our economy continues in the "jobless recovery mode", and thus attracts fewer illegals, and if the Mexican birth rate continues to drop.  If these trends continue, we might see a drop in illegal immigration and a greater percentage of US immigrants in the future would be from the legal column, which, IIRC, is much less hispanic.  And of course, my other megatrend obsession which is that as a greater and greater percentage of US hispanics are US born, (regardless of immigration trends) other issues start to outweigh the whole immigration issue.

I think that is absolutely the case right now. And yet Republicans will do much worse among US born Hispanics than they did in 2004.

I have three friends who are the U.S. born children of immigrant hispanic fathers and white mothers. They are all pretty Republican (although liberal on social issues) and act pretty "white". They barely speak Spanish too. I think as more intermarriage happens, hispanics will just assimilate into mainstream "white" culture.

If they were smart they'd go after it immediately. Especially if social conservatives truly wanted their causes to have a chance at regain some traction. But unfortunately, or fortunately depending on your political views, they seem to be obsessed with the immigration issue that they throw away a good opportunity to make a strong political gain.

I don't understand the immigration position of the GOP though. As long as people aren't committing crimes, why shouldn't we welcome anyone who wants to come into this country. Why have insane requirements to become residents or citizens? Aren't we supposed to be the freest country and lead the world by example?

I'd eliminate all deportation, except that of those who actually harm others. Of course I am also someone who is very fond of culture and sees America as a big mix of culture and thinks we should welcome more culture into our mix when we can. Be it Hispanic culture, Asian culture, or any other, I think it is all fascinating and don't understand this seeming fear of foreigners some Americans have.

More so than LBJ or Carter? Barack Obama has hardly been a paragon of fiscal responsibility.

(I agree with you on George Bush Jr, but Sr was a deficit hawk, and there were mitigating circumstances with Reagan)

No but you don't want to terrorists coming into the country. Thats why you need documentation of all these people coming into the country. The GOP has made it clear that they like legal immigration. I don't get why it should take somebody 10 years to get into the country legally though. Thats something the GOP and the Dems should agree to to streamline the immigration process so its easier and faster and you don't have to go through 10 agencies to be become a legal citizen.

They already do: Cubans, Nicaraguans, Venezuelans

They can: Colombians

They don't: Dominicans, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Argentinians (the most D Hispanic group)


The key for the GOP and Hispanic vote is not economics (rich Hispanics are probably D in D-leaning states, except Florida) is trying to encourage conversions away from Catholicism to Evangelical Protestantism and Mormonism.