Talk Elections

Joe Heck (R): 49%
Dina Titus (D): 44%

http://www.lvrj.com/hottopics/politics/polls/april_2010_4_polls.html

What the Heck!

a swing by 10 compared to 2008...

If Titus loses, she'll get the new seat in 2012. If Heck loses, he'll get the new seat in 2012. Playing around with Dave's Redistricting App has convinced me a 2D/2R delegation after 2012 is basically inevitable.

Especially since the most likely outcome of 2010 is a Republican Governor and a Democratic legislature. I doubt the map could be drawn 3-1 in either way without making two of the seats really vulnerable.

Actually it looks like we'll end up with a Reno area district, a north Las Vegas district, south Las Vegas district and everywhere else district. The everywhere else district is safe GOP, the Las Vegas ones are safe Dem. The Reno one is probably safe for Heller, but could flip in a good Dem year or if he retires. It's probably impossible without very tricky gerrymandering to not draw 3 Obama districts.

In 2012, there will only be 1 Obama district, so what is your point?

Where is that?

Kind of jumping a bit ahead aren't you? And I don't see how you could draw less than 2 Obama districts either, unless they'd sliced up Vegas into thin strips running across rural Nevada. Not happening.


http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/davesredistrictingapp.aspx

Not possible. There aren't enough people in the Reno/Carson City area to make a district. There will be three Vegas districts (one including some empty territory) and a Reno-Elko-empty areas district. Two of the Vegas districts will be Democratic, one (really the Henderson district) will be Republican, and the Everywhere-else district will be Republican but not totally unwinnable for the Democrats.

There need to be five districts before the Reno area gets its own district.

Obama will only win 1 district in 2012.

Doubt that, too. There will be two minority-majority districts in Nevada come 2012.

By Reno area I meant totally dominated by Reno. There would be some rural counties, but all the population would be concentrated in Washoe county and Carson City.

You're making the assumption that Obama would lose in a landslide, which is stupid.

Nevada after 2012 will probably look something like this:

()
()

An east-west split across Vegas is far likelier than north-south.  People usually consider the I-15 as the border between the 'east side' and 'west side' of the city.

Did you use the new population estimates?  I think the Reno district is going to have to extend to Elko or down to Pahrump in order to take in enough residents.  Any district that includes the rest of the state will be dominated by Vegas-area suburbs/exurbs like Henderson, Boulder City and (if not put in the Reno district) Pahrump, if not Las Vegas or North Las Vegas itself.  About 85% of that district will probably end up being in Clark County no matter what.

Which is actually what my map ended up being.


Yes.

Are you sure?  I've been trying to recreate your Reno district and been ending up about 60,000 votes short.  Clark County has been growing a lot faster than the Reno area.