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Title: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on April 29, 2010, 06:00:49 PM ()
() () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () () Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on April 29, 2010, 06:06:55 PM What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980?
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on April 29, 2010, 06:12:50 PM What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980? I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Franzl on April 29, 2010, 06:15:55 PM What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980? I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters. Brilliant! You should become a political commentator! Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Sasquatch on April 29, 2010, 07:43:13 PM You can find all of the national polls from 2000 over at pollingreport.com, even the ones where Gore was beating McCain in early 2000.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Psychic Octopus on April 29, 2010, 08:29:23 PM What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election, as most accounts I have read of it say...
*Runs to get FDR biography* Quote "In 1944, there was little doubt that FDR would win a record-breaking fourth term." Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on April 29, 2010, 09:02:43 PM What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election, as most accounts I have read of it say... *Runs to get FDR biography* Quote "In 1944, there was little doubt that FDR would win a record-breaking fourth term." I'd just guess poor sampling or maybe more FDR voters (who were typically poorer) didn't have access to phones. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Nym90 on April 29, 2010, 10:48:05 PM Democrats used to underpoll in the 1930's and 40's because it was very difficult to poll many Democratic voters due to them lacking telephones.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on April 29, 2010, 11:44:01 PM I'm surprised LBJ got support in the high 70s in the early summer of 1964. Sure, Goldwater was nuts, but those amrgins are just ridiculous.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Mr.Phips on April 30, 2010, 12:23:36 AM What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on April 30, 2010, 12:26:39 AM What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July. I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: memphis on April 30, 2010, 12:32:22 AM I'm surprised LBJ got support in the high 70s in the early summer of 1964. Sure, Goldwater was nuts, but those amrgins are just ridiculous. Residual shock from the Kennedy assassination. Imagine if Bush had been running for re-election in early 2002 (with a good economy as well). Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Mr.Phips on April 30, 2010, 12:34:06 AM What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July. I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce. The GOP Convention didnt occur until late August. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Joe Republic on April 30, 2010, 12:56:12 AM What caused Anderson to move so high in mid-1980? I'm guessing dissatisfaction with both Carter and Reagan among many voters. What is up with 1944? I had no idea that Roosevelt was that close to Dewey in the months leading to the election I'd just guess poor sampling or maybe more FDR voters (who were typically poorer) didn't have access to phones. What is the deal with that one poll showing Bush leading Clinton 48%-40% in a two person race in June 1992? I believe Perot didnt drop out until the Democratic convention in July. I guess Bush led Clinton due to the GOP Convention bounce. Thanks for posting this information and all, but it's best if you let the grown-ups talk now. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Psychic Octopus on April 30, 2010, 12:45:05 PM That is what I suspected; but the 1940 results aren't far off from the total.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on April 30, 2010, 05:25:41 PM I'm surprised Ike and Stevenson were so close near the 1952 election. Was it just a bad sample, or did Ike really overperform (and why)?
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Хahar 🤔 on May 02, 2010, 01:07:04 AM It's worth noting that the media was in the tank for Stevenson.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on May 02, 2010, 01:09:20 AM It's worth noting that the media was in the tank for Stevenson. Why, though? Ike was a war hero. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Tuck! on May 05, 2010, 06:07:26 PM 1996 shows a final poll of 55 for Clinton. Then at the top it says the final is 52. Which one is correct?
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on May 05, 2010, 06:15:04 PM 1996 shows a final poll of 55 for Clinton. Then at the top it says the final is 52. Which one is correct? If you look carefully, the 1996 polls only extend to August (on the chart). I think Gallup's November poll showed 52% for Clinton, while their August poll showed 55% for Clinton. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Tuck! on May 05, 2010, 06:16:38 PM Clinton has said that he got lazy and apathetic towards the end of the 1996 campaign trail. I wonder why that didn't reflect in the poll.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on May 05, 2010, 06:26:19 PM Clinton has said that he got lazy and apathetic towards the end of the 1996 campaign trail. I wonder why that didn't reflect in the poll. Because not everything Clinton (or any politician) says is accurate. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on May 07, 2010, 11:23:02 PM I added in these two charts:
() () Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on May 18, 2010, 05:44:48 PM http://www.gallup.com/poll/110548/gallup-presidential-election-trialheat-trends-19362004.aspx
Does anyone know how to put charts from this link directly onto here? Those charts are pretty much the same (except for 2004), but they look neater. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 19, 2010, 05:30:14 AM Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ?
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: You kip if you want to... on June 19, 2010, 06:16:15 AM Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ? He dropped out and then re-entered the race. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 19, 2010, 06:41:45 AM Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ? He dropped out and then re-entered the race. LOL Fail. He was even ahead at some time !! Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Barnes on June 19, 2010, 01:58:37 PM Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ? He dropped out and then re-entered the race. LOL Fail. He was even ahead at some time !! He sad something about the Republicans trying to sabotage his daughter's wedding. lol Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on June 19, 2010, 02:09:08 PM Why in the 1992 election, Perot is included in the polls until mid-june, then disappears and reappears in the beginning of September ? What happened at these times ? He dropped out and then re-entered the race. LOL Fail. He was even ahead at some time !! He sad something about the Republicans trying to sabotage his daughter's wedding. lol How exactly is that a reason to drop out? Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Sasquatch on June 19, 2010, 08:16:49 PM People laughed at Perot then, but he was pretty spot on looking back. The deficit, trade, etc.
"That giant sucking sound." Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 20, 2010, 03:59:13 AM Yeah, maybe I wouldn't have voted for him, but I have to say he was a far more decent candidate than many "respectable" ones, and would have deserved a higher score.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: DS0816 on June 25, 2010, 08:49:16 AM People laughed at Perot then, but he was pretty spot on looking back. The deficit, trade, etc. "That giant sucking sound." I didn't laugh at Ross Perot in 1992! He was correct about NAFTA. And I'm glad I voted for him. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on July 22, 2010, 08:29:17 PM Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76? Damn.
Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: hcallega on July 22, 2010, 08:40:42 PM Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76? Damn. It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter. No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol. Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on July 22, 2010, 08:52:32 PM Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76? Damn. It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter. No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol. Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier. Sorry, you're right. My brain just lapsed there for some reason. Your reasons are mostly correct for 1976, and also the economy began to recover that year, so maybe that provided some boost for Ford near the end. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Dancing with Myself on July 22, 2010, 10:23:12 PM Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76? Damn. It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter. No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol. Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier. If the election of 76 would have been held a few days later, Ford might have pulled it off. Carter was falling in the polls, and it only would have been a matter of time until he would have lost the lead. He was lucky in 76. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on July 23, 2010, 01:56:00 PM Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76? Damn. It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter. No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol. Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier. If the election of 76 would have been held a few days later, Ford might have pulled it off. Carter was falling in the polls, and it only would have been a matter of time until he would have lost the lead. He was lucky in 76. Ford also might have pulled it off if he hadn't said that Poland gaffe. That essentially halted his momentum and upward poll bounce. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Dancing with Myself on July 23, 2010, 03:56:41 PM Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76? Damn. It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter. No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol. Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier. If the election of 76 would have been held a few days later, Ford might have pulled it off. Carter was falling in the polls, and it only would have been a matter of time until he would have lost the lead. He was lucky in 76. Ford also might have pulled it off if he hadn't said that Poland gaffe. That essentially halted his momentum and upward poll bounce. That hurt him, but it was not what did him in though. We would have been better off if Ford was re-elected. Title: Re: Gallup Presidential Polls 1936-2000 Post by: Bo on July 23, 2010, 07:59:58 PM Whoa, Carter had reached 60% in the middle of '76? Damn. It was February 1976, not the middle of 1976. And that was before John Anderson entered and when many Americans felt super-patriotic due to the hostage crisis and said they were supporting Carter. No, 1976 was when Gerald Ford was President lol. Yeah, Ford surged late against Carter. The only explanation is that it's Carter and he really bombed towards the end. I'm sure a lot of party strategists thought to themselves "uh oh" after looking at the election results compared to the polls just months earlier. If the election of 76 would have been held a few days later, Ford might have pulled it off. Carter was falling in the polls, and it only would have been a matter of time until he would have lost the lead. He was lucky in 76. Ford also might have pulled it off if he hadn't said that Poland gaffe. That essentially halted his momentum and upward poll bounce. That hurt him, but it was not what did him in though. We would have been better off if Ford was re-elected. I could see that gaffe costing Ford about one percentage point in the PV and thus costing him the election. I agree with your second part. |